The Edmonton Oilers chose the right player in 2015, but followed it up by selecting the wrong path forward immediately. Just over one hour after the McDavid pick, general manager Peter Chiarelli dealt picks that could have been (and reportedly were) meant for Joel Eriksson-Ek and Brandon Carlo. These years later, Jack Eichel has the Stanley Cup ring and Connor McDavid is starring in a script that frames him as “Steve Yzerman waiting for Sergei Fedorov” and that’s a terribly unfair script.
Every Oilers general manager since 2015 who held the job for more than five minutes (Chiarelli, Ken Holland) burned down the mission that housed a draft/development model and sent away picks and prospects on the double.
Stan Bowman continued the trend at the deadline, and at this point in McDavid’s career it makes sense. Realistically, by the time Sam O’Reilly is ready to help the Oilers, McDavid will be over 30. So, drafting someone in this year’s first round would mean an even later date when said player could help with the heavy lifting.
I think Stan Bowman did well in the spring signing window, gathering some useful pieces. Two of those acquisitions (David Tomasek and Atro Leppänen) should be viewed as legit options for deployment in 2025-26. I hope he can sign a couple of Group 6 NHL free agents (Phil Kemp and Matej Blumel would be nice) and we’ll see how the team addresses speed and youth for next year’s roster. Edmonton needs an infusion of youth due to cap concerns as well. Important summer, pleased to see Bowman has already joined the battle.
LINE MATCHING
Kris Knoblauch isn’t a big line match coach. Craig MacTavish taught all of us how important line matching can be, but you can make the case that a coach with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can just bull rush opponents whenever he damn well pleases.
As the Glimmer Twins age, finding clean air for their briliance will become more important.
During the road games this series, McDavid saw a steady diet of Mikey Anderson (21:40), Drew Doughty (20:25) and Phillip Danault (18:34) at five-on-five. He went 1-1 goals and 9-6 shots versus Anderson.
At home, McDavid’s most common five-on-five opponents were Mikey Anderson (24:26), Drew Doughty (24:19) and Philip Danault (17:04). McDavid went 19-8 shots and 3-1 goals against Anderson.
The biggest tweak I see in the home/road (and I’m no expert in this area) is that the two coaching staffs disagree about the McDavid-Anze Kopitar minutes. Here are the splits, all numbers five-on-five:
- 97 v/Kopitar at home: 13:42, 14-2 shots, 2-0 goals
- 97 v/Kopitar in LA: 5:55, 3-3 shots, 2-1 goals
Now, these are extremely small sample sizes and luck could be the biggest factor. People sometimes take these minute numbers and trumpet them like the second coming. You can parse too deeply looking for answers when none are there. You end up saying things out loud that you later regret, like “McDavid is more efficient when up against defensemen who use wire clothes hangers than he is against those who use wooden clothes hangers” and then other people stop listening to you.
Also, I didn’t break out the defensemen who played with Kopitar against McDavid, and I don’t know what zone they started in or if it was on the fly. It’s the beginning of an argument suggesting Knoblauch is matching a little. I don’t know what I don’t know.
It’s an interesting ‘inside the game’ item for us to watch this evening.
The Lowdown hits at noon today on Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will be our feature guest, and of course this is ‘chaos Tuesday’ as Donovan Paulson joins us and creates a fascinating back and forth happen immediately. I don’t know how he does it, but tune in and have a listen. Declan Krueger will have “Hi my name is….” and we’ll discuss MLB, NFL and NBA. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
Leafs shut out. Anyone still think they are Stanley cup favorites?
Reja mentioned ticky tack calls in the first 5mins of the game. There have been 3 penalties called in the first 5mins of the game.
The hold called on Kulak.
The hook called on McDavid.
The interference called on Kuzmenko.
In the other game the first penalty was called at the 7min mark on Kane for crosscheck.
It would be nice for the Oilers to get the first crack on the PP.
I would gladly take even penalty minutes but we all know that’s not going to happen.
I was looking early in the playoffs and Brochu was playing and I neglected to follow up to see if Day was getting in any games.
Per Curlock:
What a start to Day’s pro career after .981 in 2 regular season games plus a 1 period mop up.
The meme worked last game, Happy Gilmore memes till we lose!
This is why we signed Arvidsson and Henrique. I don’t care what your regular season was like get the winner tonight and all we be forgiven.
Anyone else find the 2 game suspension a little light for Ekblad?
Sounds about fair it’s usually half as much as regular season.
This league does not support the safety of their assets/players… it’s shameful. That particular play didn’t even result in a penalty, and from what I could tell, the official had eyes directly on the infraction.
That should have been a 5 min major called on the ice. Total miss by on ice officials. I guess not unexpected based on the incompetent officiating we have seen in these playoffs. Worse than regular season which I didn’t think was possible…..
Pickard going for the win 3 not many folks have this ticket still alive.
I sincerely hope Knobber is not going to trot Nurse – Bouchard out tonight.
Sorry, I want to take issue with this. The first few years on Holland’s watch, fans wanted a Cup NOW. (McDavid was already five years in, with only one playoff year.) This community was very frustrated with Holland’s inaction at the trade deadline. (I think deadline rentals are usually a bad idea, so I was mostly OK with that inaction.)
When Holland finally started making deals, I recall this community saying “finally!” “How much longer were we going to waste McDrai’s prime years, and risk them not re-signing?!”
Did Holland make some bad deals? Sure. IMO most deadline rentals are bad deals. Carolina has (until recently) decline do deadline rentals, and they’ve been consistently competitive for many years. But I think there would be fewer bad deals if the fanbase weren’t so rabid for deadline rentals.
More generally, Oilers fans have tried to run out nearly every competent goaltender and defenseman the Oilers have ever had, sometimes with success — still love you, Petry, Dubnyk. If a GM is ignoring Oilers fans they’re half way to doing the right thing.
Sorry. The fans didn’t run Petry out, or Dubnyk, or Hemsky, or Perron.
that was Mac-T
That was for a run at McDavid, yes, the organization tanked.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/disgust-in-edmonton-praise-in-montreal-as-twitter-reacts-to-jeff-petry-trade
The one player that I can say the organization traded away was Schultz possible due to fan vitriol
I was saying Schultz should be 2nd pair or 3rd pair.
Pittsburg utilized Schultz to perfection.
How far back do we want to go…
I will say that MacT was absolutely perfect as a GM during the McDavid years. Not only did he acquire the first overall, he had 2 other high first round picks that could be used to add to the McDavid cluster.
Oilers media runs far more players out of town then fans ever have.
Kind of linked together I think. But GMs should not be making decisions based on fans anyway.
“Let them eat cake”
I realise that now isn’t a good time, but I’ve been thinking about goaltending for a little while and thought I’d drop this here for feedback. Having just had a baby of our own some months ago I’m far from convinced Skinner is a lost cause due to his recent performance, but believe he’ll bounce back. In fact, I think we’ll see him again in the series even.
However, the point I’m getting to is that if the Oilers decide to make changes to their goaltending this summer, there are no obvious great choices available either in free agency or via trade. So what about getting a young guy who has the potential to break out and support this team for the next decade plus? Are there any such players out there? As it turns out, there may be a few.
I’d like to highlight three young goalies who showed well in limited minutes this season. Keep in mind that I’m not a scout and haven’t done much research on any of these guys, just laying out the numbers.
Leevi Meriläinen, Ottawa Senators
Age 22, 6’3″, 186 lbs, drafted in the 3rd round of 2020
NHL stats this season: 8-3-1, 1.99 GAA, .925 SV%
AHL stats this season: 18-12-4, 2.37 GAA, .913 SV%
Why the Sens might trade him: they have Ullmark under contract for 3 more years and former 2nd rounder Mads Sogaard coming up through the system.
Why the Sens might not: backup Forsberg is a UFA this summer and the giant Sogaard (24) hasn’t developed as expected. They may not want to go into NHL action next fall depending on Sogaard as a backup. Maybe Pickard’s 1 year of term would be a fallback though?
Jakub Dobes, Montreal Canadiens
Age 24, 6’4″, 215 lbs, drafted in the 5th round of 2020
NHL stats this season: 7-4-3, 2.74 GAA, .909 SV%
AHL stats this season: 9-3-1, 2.44 GAA, .910 SV%
Why the Habs might trade him: they have starter Montembeault under contract for 2 more years, much-hyped Cayden Primeau in the AHL and just got NCAA star Jacob Fowler under contract earlier this month. The 20 year old Fowler posted a .940 in 35 games with Boston College this season and .914 in 3 games with the AHL Laval Rocket.
Why the Habs might not: they don’t have a veteran backup signed and Primeau posted a poor .836 in 11 NHL games this year, although he was outstanding in the AHL. There’s no reason not to run Monty & Dobes in tandem for a couple of years and see what happens with Fowler. Note too that Dobes is currently getting playoff starts since Monty went down during game 3 with an LBI. Dobes is 1-1-0 with a 2.77 GAA and .875 SV% in 86 minutes so far.
Jet Greaves, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age 24, 6’0″, 190 lbs, undrafted
NHL stats this season: 7-2-2, 1.91 GAA, .938 SV%
AHL stats this season: 21-11-6, 2.62 GAA, .920 SV%
Why the Jackets might trade him: Elvis is under contract for 2 more years, understudy Tarasov is an RFA this summer making for a crowded crease in Columbus. Tarasov also debuted in Columbus with a .937 in his first 4 game cup of coffee, so whether they trust Greaves’ hot start or not is a question. Tarasov is a serviceable backup who posted better number than Elvis in 2025. The right offer might convince them to part with Greaves.
Why the Jackets might not: Greaves first 4 games weren’t great, it’s the 7 he played since Christmas that have been very good. He didn’t allow more than 2 goals in any of these games. Included in that was a solid 5 game run from April 10 -17 where he went 5-0-0 with 0.80 GAA and .975 SV% and 2 shutouts. Granted teams are winding down at that point, but still.
Food for thought only.
Oilers in six!
I think Bowman will be more creative when it comes to our goaltending pipeline. They’re out there trust your scouting team to find them.
Jakub Dobes .
— McDrai has what another 4 cracks plus this season at most where they will be both top5 players in the league.
— if they won the Cup this year I guess that’s a success: two trips to the finals Champions made playoffs a bunch of years in a row.
— But there isn’t that many seasons left where the team can win the Cup with them driving the Bus
— To me the McDrai iteration of this team has been underwhelming.
— Still think they have a Cup in them. With each passing year they seem one and done. Meh.
Holy cow Kinger, what a bummer!
15-10 PPOs this series. Per game the Oilers are -3, -2, 0, 0 although that last one took an extra period to reach.
Notable this series
1) clearly differing impact of “home ice advantage” on how the games have been called
2) Oilers have still, not once, had more PPOs than Kings
3) Oilers have been <= 3 PPOs every game
I’m guessing if I built a metric around consecutive playoff games with <= PPOs than your opponent, or consecutive playoff games with <= 3 PPOs total, we’d be well beyond 1, prob close to 2, std dev from the mean.
Well done Gary and co.
I don’t understand why people think the league is out to get the Oilers.
Why would the league not want it’s biggest and most marketable star to get far in the playoffs? Weren’t the SCF tv ratings last year incredibly good? If anything, the league has an interest in making sure that it’s biggest + most marketable stars get deep into the playoffs, even if they play for Canadian teams.
Of course, one might also ask why the league would not want its biggest and most marketable stars to be able to play without being hacked, chopped, grabbed, and wrestled to the ice on a nightly basis.
While I agree that the league is not out to get the Oilers, appealing to its rationality and self-interest is not a way to prove that point.
There’s as much viewing possible audience in the Los Angeles area as the whole of Canada.
When the league is missing Boston, New York, Chicago, Detroit, it’s easy to speculate the league may want to keep the large market that is LA in the mix.
They want all the marketable stars to play in the U.S. Kind of like they want the Stanley cup to remain in the USA.
It’s actually 17-10. The 5 on 3s count for 2 opportunities.
I don’t believe there is a conspiracy against the Oilers but the refs are 100% reluctant to call infractions committed on McDavid and other stars.
Any word on the 2 zebras tonight? How the Oilers and Kings fair with them? I’m sure noticing the linesmen on face-offs that is not a good thing as they didn’t get the memo it’s not about them.
Francois St. Laurent #8 and Kendrick Nicholson #30
https://scoutingtherefs.com/2025/04/48467/todays-nhl-referees-and-linespersons-4-29-25/
St. Laurent ranks 4th in the league in penalty differential at 1.47 so we’ll see which way that goes.
Not sure if you can read anything into these stats but you can compare them at the following link.
https://scoutingtherefs.com/2024-25-nhl-referee-stats/
Looking for the Oilers to start the game on time tonight and play “their” game right from the start.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
There is word this afternoon that Rick Tocchet will not be returning as head coach of the Vancouver Canucks.
Believe there will be a full statement with his rationale in the next little while…but add Vancouver to the teams looking for a new bench boss.
Dear readers:
“Harpers Hair
Reply to delooper
May 3, 2024 8:47 pm
We’ll see.
Tocchet’s system is based entirely on structure and playing low event hockey.
Given he is likely the Jack Adam’s winner and his team making the final 8, he may be on to something.”
He in fact, was not on to something.
…On to the next flight out of town.
…to teach a revolutionary new system in hockey, a.k.a, “Tocchet’s system”, which is based on structure and playing low event hockey, to evolve the game across the globe. His course will be called Tocchet’s Talks and it will revolutionize the game.
Rick!
(there he goes)
It’s pretty clear that Tocchet decided not to come back. The team declined his option and offered him a new contract like a week ago. The canucks wanted him back and he turned them down, I don’t see how this is an indication he sucks
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/44785363/canucks-decline-option-rick-tocchet-offer-new-deal
He’s a good coach who probably wanted out of the shit show that is the Canucks locker room/organization.
HH citing to last year’s jack adams award is funny though
Truthfully, I don’t have a strong opinion of Tocchet as a coach as I did not watch all of Vancouver’s games.
HH’s post did remind me though about how much HH posted since Tocchet was hired as if he was some prodigal coaching talent. Talking as if he invented a structured, low event system.
In the end it landed Vancouver in 18th place this year.
And this year HH never really talked highly about Tocchet’s system as a factor. Instead, he started pumping up Quinn Hughes tires, only because Hughes is in the same conversation as Draisaitl for Hart winner. Even going as far as saying Hughes was carrying the team to the playoffs and Vancouver would make it if Hughes was healthy (but not because of Tocchet’s elite coaching or systems this year).
The quote I was responding to was from before he won.
Jim Rutherford just now explaining that Tocchet told him this morning that he had personal reasons for why he couldn’t stay.
It has nothing to do with either his or the teams performance no matter how some try to craft a narrative.
Probably couldn’t find an apartment on his $2.75 million salary in Vancouver. Poor guy.
“It’s not you it me”
Drance had the following quote from Rutherford:
I wonder about Sullivan given his history with Rutherford.
Sullivan will want to go somewhere with potential, not the cluster that is Van right now. Lots of other coaching opportunities – NYR seems a likely landing spot for him.
Tocchet will probably return to Philly.
Friedman saying the Rangers are in hot pursuit of Sullivan.
https://canucksarmy.com/news/rick-tocchet-thanks-vancouver-canucks-players-fans-ownership-media-more-statement
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Kane – Henrique – Brown
Frederic – Janmark – Perry
Nurse – Bouchard
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson
KK sure is stubborn … why he keeps running out 25-2 when 27-2 is such a better stylistic fit is beyond me.
Nuge continuing as 1LW is concerning, honestly wouldn’t mind Kane getting a look there.
Guessing we shouldn’t get too hung up on line combo’s and D pairs in practice. Game starts and the blender comes out.
My concern is that the blender comes out because the team is down 2-0 early because of these lines …
My hope (cope) is that these lines are only to disinform the Kings.
How long do you expect these lines to be in place?
Until the first GA?
I would have liked to see Perry start with McD. But I guess Hyman there is ok too.
Last game, at 5 on 5, Bouch played:
8:46 with Kulak
8:31 with Nurse
7:55 with Walman
We’ll probably see more of the same (potentially more with Kulak and Walman as they faded Nurse/Bouch as the game went on, I think).
We need to remember, what we saw at skate really means little – for all we know McDavid/Drai are loaded up from puck drop (I hope not).
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
NHL reveals Norris Trophy Finalists:
Hughes (Vancouver)
Makar (Colorado)
Werenski (Columbus
2 playoff wins between them.
Love the morning skate set up going back to the traditional top 4 with the duo split. There is legit depth with the likes of Kane and Frederic and Perry in the bottom.
I truly feel the ability to provide a spark with a fresh load up, for a shift here or there, or an overall change, is impactful. Way more than starting off loaded.
Not happy to see Nurse-Bouchard as the top D pair.
Last game, at 5 on 5, Bouch played:
8:46 with Kulak
8:31 with Nurse
7:55 with Walman
We’ll probably see more of the same (potentially more with Kulak and Walman as they faded Nurse/Bouch as the game went on, I think).
We need to remember, what we saw at skate really means little – for all we know McDavid/Drai are loaded up from puck drop (I hope not).
Also Kane-Rico-Brown together is big yikes. That line got shellacked at home.
I wish someone would just ask KK in a postgame scrum “Line X was outchanced and outscored by [margins] the last two games – why did you keep that line together to start the game tonight?”
I have no clue what he is thinking, and would at least like to hear his thought process.
It feels like he’s just falling back on what worked in the playoffs last year, without reference to the actual on-ice results the past few weeks
Right?
How much better that would be instead of whatever question Spec is asking.
KK may be a fantastic coach, doing what he can with what he has
My Spidey Sense isn’t telling me that. It’s saying he’s a good coach but hasn’t hit the great leader part, if he does
The constant BlenderTM seems like a lack of roster building and answers. NHL players I’ve heard all say they don’t like it. Having players doing what they don’t like won’t work long run, human nature
If you could go back in time and push a little harder for Markstrom, when we were in talks, at the same time as Calgary, and give him that extra year, would you?
Think of all the meandering that would have been avoided with smith, koskinen, and Campbell. In my opinion, that is one move that may have had led us to a cup already.
I think Markstrom’s numbers the last five years would suggest he wasn’t the answer for the Oilers. Trading Cam Talbot in the middle of one bad year (like Dubnyk before him) was the big mistake. Had we held on to Anthony Stolarz who we traded Talbot for, we’d be having a different conversation as well.
Agreed.
Having Mike Smith on that list is unfair. He was continuously doubted by fans but in his 3 years he put up a .902, .923(!!) and .915
“The biggest tweak I see in the home/road (and I’m no expert in this area) is that the two coaching staffs disagree about the McDavid-Anze Kopitar minutes.”
I would say they agree very much about the minutes 🙂 Why would LAK want that match up to continue on home ice.
In the past, McDavid has struggled against Danault line. That line has to break through while whoever is tasked with Kopitar’s line has to break even. And limit their PP to 0-1 goals.
This might be nitpicking but I don’t think its a meaningful critique of Edmonton that Jack Eichel has a cup when the Oilers and McDavid still don’t. Its not like Buffalo built a championship club around Eichel; they also mismanaged him and their club before he parachuted into one with the VGK: A team that had every advantage Edmonton didn’t when McDavid joined the NHL. (No baggage vs. only baggage.)
I mean there’s plenty of reasons to criticize Edmonton for not getting a cup with McDavid to date, but the fact Eichel got one in a different city is not one of them.
I don’t think I’ve ever heard/read anyone make this critique
Lowetide just sort of did, above.
I don’t see this as criticizing the Oilers in any way. I think it’s pretty clear LT is saying “it’s unfair for McDavid that Eichel was able to jump ship and get a ring while McDavid is still waiting for a good enough team around him to win a cup.”
I don’t know how you read this as “the Edmonton Oilers suck because Jack Eichel won a cup with Vegas while McDavid still doesn’t have a ring”
I didn’t read it that way.
I don’t know how you read it as a critique of Edmonton lol
It’s pretty basic reading comprehension….
Seriously?
“These years later, Jack Eichel has the Stanley Cup ring and Connor McDavid is starring in a script that frames him as “Steve Yzerman waiting for Sergei Fedorov”
Context.
Jack Eichel was famously taken second, after Connor McDavid. He was taken by Buffalo, not Vegas. Buffalo still sucks, and without this context provided in the sentence it implies that an equally inept team was able to turn a lesser superstar into a Stanley Cup when that isn’t close to the case. I suggested I was nitpicking, because everyone here knows the context, but in a vacuum, LT does imply that Edmonton failed where Buffalo didn’t. Eichel’s ring bears no relation to McDavid’s lack of one.
Is that not a fair reading on my part?
By the way I do sort of see how you read it and think it’s a valid interpretation but also that doesn’t contradict of how I read it.
We have had 63 goaltenders suit up for us in franchise history. With at least 59 games started in the regular season Calvin Pickard has the 2nd highest winning percentage at 67% Andy Moog tops it off at 72%. We keep hearing about what a bargain Skinner is I think it’s time to give Pickard a little more praise for having the chore of constantly cleaning up poop stains left on the carpet by Skinner.
While Wins are not always the best indicator of a goalie’s skill, after a while you have to give a player their dues when you win almost every time you’re in net. Definitely have to give Pickard praise for this year, and should start considering his contract a value contract for what he’s done.
Everytime Pickard name is mentioned it’s following with that he’s only starting until Skinner gets reset whatever the fuk that’s suppose to mean. Pickard has 2 in a row 14 more to go. How many more consecutive wins does he need to have his on sentence where Skinner name is not brought up?
A lot of negativity towards Bouchard online (including TSN) while heaping praise on Cale Makar. Now, Makar is a great dman but Bouchard is also playing well this playoff season.
Makar
Bouchard
Bouchard, like Makar, is playing the toughest minutes and is significantly impacting the game. Even with the horrible goalie save percentage and less short-handed time, Bouchard is giving the Oilers a chance to win every night. Do I hope he cuts down on the defensive miscues – of course. However, a review the data clearly shows that Bouch is playing as good as Makar.
The whole team plays fast and aggressive leading to a 4-2 W tonight!
https://x.com/travisyost/status/1917238254900035626
Top four defender performance in the playoffs:
That’s a small sample size four games into the playoffs.
Imagine trying to fade Bouchard’s playoff performance when he’s top 5 in goals, top 10 in points, and is playing 26.5 minutes a game.
As the post was about dmen, let’s just look at that.
Bouchard: Goals – 1st, Points – 2nd, G per 60 – 2nd, Points per 60 – 2nd, TOI – 7th
I am backing Bouchard all day long!
Note:
In incredibly good company with Vegas and Winnipeg
I don’t think we need to cherry-pick 4 game sample sizes to show that Broberg is already a good NHL defensemen.
You can point to far more compelling/reliable data to reach that conclusion lol
This is exactly what LT was meaning about parsing the data too deeply. The graph looks fancy but has zero predictive power. There is no statistical evidence that they are likely to repeat those numbers.
If you flip a coin heads four times in a row does that mean it will definitely be heads the fifth time? Sample size matters
Godot knows this, they’ve been commenting here forever. But there isn’t a straw Godot won’t grasp at to try to say Bouchard sucks.
It goes without saying we to need keep wearing down Mikey and Doughty on the forecheck. Watching the Bouchard equalizer again what a strange play Byfield makes. He had all day to easily chip it past the blueline if that was a Oiler (Eberle) he would be crucified to no end if the Kings lose the series.
Wooden hangers, and especially premium wooden hangers, are clearly better for your clothes, although they can be a costly investment. Wire hangers are economical, but not preferred.
As an NHL player, they have the means for a wooden hanger, and by not doing so, reflects a player that does not pay attention to detail. McDavid will most rightly dominate players who do not pay attentions to details.
Hence, McDavid will surely dominate lowly wire-hanger defensemen.
The secret is to have the means to buy wooden hangers but choose to wear your favorite player name/number T shirts, usually from straight out of the dryer. Leaves $$ to donate to a local charity. Good for the soul.
If the Oilers want to follow the draft and develop pipeline they would need to religiously separate McDavid and Draisiatl. When you have two players hogging the majority of the minutes, it makes it hard for young players to transition to the NHL. i.e. few players enjoy the idea that if they play on the Oilers they’ll start on the 3rd or 4th line, and simply stay there forever.
In part that’s why the 80’s Oilers had success in the draft-develop pipeline. They kept Gretzky and Messier largely apart. Gretzky’s line was Kurri+enforcer and occasionally Kurri+extra offensive power, but Messier’s line had spots that players could regularly graduate up to.
If the Oilers play McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line, there are 4/6 spots available in the top 6 for younger players, the exact same number of sports if they play them apart, and their TOI isn’t materially higher in games where they are together/apart.
If there’s any concern about on-roster players blocking younger players, its from the multitude of veterans the Oilers sign in free agency that block younger players from roster spots. Savoie isn’t getting blocked because KK likes playing 97-29 together, he’s blocked because the Oilers have Skinner, Arvidsson, Hyman, Kane, Nuge, etc.
If Holloway signed his offer sheet because he thought he’d be stuck on the 3rd and 4th lines, it’s not because 97/29 played a lot together, it’s because there were 6-8 wingers fighting for 4 spots in the Top 6.
If the point you’re trying to make is that keeping them apart is a good idea because it gives young offensive minded players an opportunity to succeed by playing with one of 97 or 29 that’s another thing, but I have no idea how/why you think playing 97/29 blocks forward prospects’ development
You develop quicker when playing with better players. i.e. if all you want to do is block shots in d-zone, getting shelled all day then yes you might be fine playing on lesser lines.
How does this respond to anything I posted lol
Holloway followed the money. It’s too bad because he would have beaten both of Arvidsson & Skinner in competition for a position in the top six in Edmonton. It’s also too bad they didn’t just make him a better offer in the first place.
That’s the easy way to think about it. But it’s not what Holloway said.
Holloway is injury riddled I’m actually surprised he played a full season.
Reja, he didn’t play a full season. Hasn’t yet.
I don’t think Holloway’s decision was driven by $ primarily. I think he knew he was on a team with a ton of competition for top 6 minutes playing for a coach who favors veterans. In STL he saw more ice time, the opportunity to play on the PP, and less players blocking him for premium minutes.
He bet on himself and it worked out great for him (so far).
Holloway stated Oilers hardly showed up at the bargaining table. They planted doubt in his head as to his future.
Right, his future about his role, ice-time, future with the club … the same stuff I said I think was more front of mind than him than $
I think poor drafting at the top for forwards was a bigger problem. Nobody was good enough to or learned how to play in the top 6 except Yama for two or three months. Yama was smart enough but didn’t play a sustainable style as we see
Puljujarvi (zero due diligence IMO, bust)
Yama (not elite or fast enough to be that small)
Holloway (good)
Bourgault (bust)
Schaefer (meh)
Holloway not available for St Louis which has been an issue
1) The Oilers need to get out to a strong start in the first period tonight. They’ve only really started on time in one game (G3) this series, and when playing from behind KK tends to load up McDrai on the first line and play the bejesus out of them (I think, going off of the eye test). A strong start that allows KK to let them both stir the river on their own lines puts LA in the position of defending one or more of 97 or 29 for two-thirds of the game.
2) LA is going to dive, flop, embellish, spear, and sucker-punch all night. The Oilers need to avoid taking retaliatory penalties that don’t prevent goals from going into their net, and to not give the referees a reason to call a penalty. The officiating this series, like every NHL playoff series in recent memory, has been inconsistent from period to period and filled with missed calls and ticky-tack infractions. If the Oilers need to push back they need to be smart/savvy about it – Corey Perry could teach a university course about how to get away with murder without the stripes seeing it. The best way to shut down LA’s PP unit is to keep them off the ice, full stop.
3) If wouldn’t be opposed to seeing 97 and 29 kill some penalties, particularly against a 5 forward unit. The threat of one or both of 97/29 headed back the other way on a shorthanded chance might make the Kings PP unit less aggressive pinching to keep the puck in and might put them on the back foot.
4) The Oilers’ history of trading quality draft picks for declining vets, struggling prospects, and magic beans is a trend that’s been consistent across multiple general managers and presidents of hockey ops. It’s an organizational failure that can’t be laid (solely) at the feet of Chiarelli, Holland, or Bowman, and the organization’s failure to have guardrails in place to make sure the decision-maker of the day can’t mortgage the future to cover their ass has burned them time and time again.
5) I’ll give Bowman credit for making some astute moves to bring in some youth from overseas, but ultimately the Oilers need difference makers on value contracts, not bottom-of-the-roster/AAAA players, and these type of Euro signings are more often the latter rather than the former. Savoie needs to step up in a big way and the Oilers need to convert what draft picks they have remaining into near-NHL ready prospects that can contribute to the next few years’ teams (whether picking players with shorter development curves or trading them for prospects).
Momentum is on our side. Draisaitl, McDavid and Bouchard are in the Kings heads. Next 2 games, no problem (I think)🥴
momentum was on our side in the 3rd period in game 1 until it wasn’t. Can’t expect yesterday’s success to dictate today’s results, every game is a new beginning and every win has to be earned each and every night.
Good points, but maybe I’m overly optimistic but I still think that the way the Kings lost must grate them
You learn more in defeat than in victory, if anything I’d expect them to come out very strong tonight in their own barn
Also per Woodley: I guess the environment in front of Kuemper has been better for him than in the regular season – the goalie is just not making the saves to the extent he was in the regulars season.
He has an expected .903 in the playoffs.
Oilers are doing a good job attacking at and below the goal line – in and off his posts.
Credits the pre-scouting – likely Schwartz.
You mean, Schwartz might be good for something after all?
great! Let’s promote him to some new role and hire a goalie coach who can actually improve the Oilers goalies!
Need to kill off that 1st ticky tack penalty call in the first five minutes. Low event hockey let’s get out of the 1st tied. Let’s roll 4 lines see how Hiller responds to this. I have a good feeling on Mr.Kane having a big night Frederic also seems to be improving as the series has gone on.
Per Woodley, Skinner’s expected save percentage is .872 and Pickard’s is .904.
The Oilers as a team have started playing better – maybe it was the home games.
This is also an extension of the regular season – a discrepancy in what the Oilers give up as between the two goalies.
So Pickard is 0.015 below his expected, Skinner is 0.062?
Another commenter noted, but there’s a chance Kuemper could steal a game outright.
Love your call letters…lol
Oilers need to switch up their game a little in LA and keep it super simple off the start. Forecheck back check hard. Win the battles. And don’t take any dumb penalties. What has killed us in game one and two has been the early pp goal and then momentum with the crowd after.
The key every game is to limit the mistakes. I think they are feeling it now, and if they can bring drive and play a cleaner game they will prevail in a more normal fashion. Also the goalie
I would most like to see Nurse and Bouchard playing with other defensive partners.
For sure, it doesn’t work. It’s weird how no matter who the coaches they get stuck on certain things regardless of evidence of better options. It’s like none of them trust their players enough
Continuing to run 25-2 might cost KK his job, hopefully he adjusts
They’re reasonably good on the road. But this is an unusually hostile environment. They will need to score early and often to silence the crowd. The best defense is a great offense, keep the puck out of the defensive zone, and keep the pressure on LA in their d-zone. It’s more exhausting to defend than to attack. Make few mistakes, maintain puck possession. It’s a simple game plan but hard work.
As solid as the third period was and as dominant as OT was, in LA, I hope they split McDavid and Drai to start the game.
It’s generally more effective when it’s an in-game adjustment as opposed to the way they start.
100% agree – I’d be curious about the fancy stats on this one. When they start the game together, they sometimes seem complacent but when put together for a shit i.e. post PK or later in games, their mentality seems to be to make the most of the moment
Agreed – if anything its more important on the road because it makes it harder for LA to line match, and either the McDavid or Draisaitl line gets away from Danault/Anderson/Doughty
Run four balanced lines and attack with relentless ferocity for sixty minutes.
I would prefer Bowman sign Berezkin over Blumel. I don’t think Stauff and Bowman would have discussed that in air if it was not trending for a signing.
Berezkin would be ideal. However, as I was talking Group 6 free agents and Berezkin is a drafted player, I don’t see that as being Bowman innovating. He’s signing the team’s draft picks. No extra credit for that imo. UNLESS he gets Berezkin out of Russia ala Statsnys or Nedved! 🙂
Fair enough.
I’m just not sure there is much separation between a Blumel who turns 25 right away here and the European (and I guess college) UFAs that Bowman has signed (not that I think any of them will be on the roster in October except maybe Tomasek).
Blumel is clearly a substantial AHL player but he hasn’t got much of a chance in the NHL in an org that gives its top AHL players chances and, when he has had his chances, he’s underwhelmed.
Of course, can’t disagree with your premise of finding players to add to the organization outside the draft.
Deleted because it repeats what has already been written.
Would another year of junior really be all that beneficial. Would the idea of sending him to a Finnish-Swedish league where we know a friendly Oiler management coach to aid in his growth as a 2 way Centre. I guess he wouldn’t get heavy ice time like he would in London but he would be playing against men.
Barkley and Cowan will be gone so O’Reily will be THE main forward…..
I know Sam will only be 19 all next playing year but he strikes me has having man strength already. If he has a good camp does he possibly get 9 games with the big club.
Perhaps but I its tough to imagine his impacting the roster of this team at 19.
At some point a goalie is going to massively impact a win for his team in this series.
Sundays’s events kind of reminded me if that sequence against San Jose one year (can’t remember exactly when) late in the third Klefbom with a huge goal to tie then Deharnais wins it in OT. So exciting.
2017 game 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nKfthKLSNo
Yes. Thank you, my brother. “Seems like yesterday, but it was long ago…”
From Barzal or Erickson Ek to Holloway and Broberg, incompetent GMing has already cost us at least one cup
For those who doubt, I did check the almanac, and this is indeed a scientific fact.
Holland had better ideas (and I think less interference) and was more stable than Chia, but his weakness making deals left the team with basically the same issues as when he arrived. Also some pretty weak pro assessment. After 5 years things should have been 100%, actually earlier as the elites were there and experienced. Gross
The drafting of Bourgault over a possible franchise goalie in Wallstedt was baffling. How could you pass up on this pick especially with our near non existent pipeline in net. The pick was Wallstedt all day everyday whether he pans out or not a goalie of his pedigree still will hold weight even with his less than stellar numbers.
You mean Bourgault over Wyatt Johnston. Wallstedt, even if he makes it, which is still in doubt, the earliest he would be a legit #1 is in another three years.
I wonder how close they came to choosing Wyatt we’ve all heard about the Coffey connection to Wyatt. It must have been a real back and forth on choosing Bourgault who ultimately got Wright cleaning out his desk
Wallsted turns 23 in November and is closer to the ECHL than NHL based on his pro development
He still has later first round value where as Bourgault may fetch you a 5th.
Seriously considering a pregame nap so I can stay up and watch the whole thing tonight. I try not to have hope going into the games, as I think it is bad luck (from me to the team) so I remain cautiously pessimisstic to try to keep the streak going.
GOilers!
A nap is always a good thing. Whether a well-rested, remote, optimistic/pessimistic fan base makes a difference is still under review.
Me, I pull on my jersey and sing the anthem before every game. Mixed results this year. One of the dogs hates it, though. That much I do know for sure.
There is such a noticeable difference in how the third periods have looked compared to the rest of the game. While it’s likely multifactorial and more nuanced, the two big themes seem to be how much we push and how much LA sits back. We can only control one, but it would be really fun to watch a game where we rolled 4 lines and pushed the way we did in OT while running a 2-3 offence in their zone to limit jailbreaks the other way. Let’s hope!
Speed, energy, forecheck, out hit, stay disciplined, win the 50-50 board battles will probably lead to the first goal of the game, and we’ll be heading north with a game in hand.
Go Oilers!
The mismanagement of this team during the McDavid era is criminal, us Oiler fans are the prisoners, this blog our chow hall, summers our solitary confinement and Lord Stanley our key. Please let us out!
Prospectamine!
It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.
The former sentiment applies to Muskegon, who won both games in Dubuque and have earned two cracks to win the series on home ice. Berry has but an apple to subsist upon in eight playoff games thus far.
The latter describes Barrie, who went opposite-Muskegon and dropped both games at home. The Colts now have the daunting task of going into Oshawa and hoping the road food is better than the recent home cooking. Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law have yet to see the scoresheet in this series.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Both times are the same time and are also Willingdon time.
Bring it home Oilers!