This is the Oilers training camp roster in September 2015. All of the remnants and roll-ends are gone now, leaving Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Darnell Nurse. The years have flown by, but the song remains the same. The goal is Stanley. Last night was a tough one for the team, but this series should go to Edmonton based on merit.
The quality of play slippage in Game 3, across the roster, should be the subject of conversation today.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner came up shy in last night’s game, the Oilers needing one more save to get it to overtime. That’s twice in recent games a very late goal has crushed the team with Skinner in net. I know Leon Draisaitl knocked the puck into the net, but the general frailty of Skinner in goal is an issue for this team.
There are three ways this can turn out. First, Skinner can play better. We’ve seen him in the zone before, and the Oilers don’t need Dom Hasek in net so I see a path to success for Skinner in this series and with this team.
Second, the team can play better. The club looked nervous and reckless, sometimes both on the same shift. Some of the team’s heart and soul players, who are list on that 2015 training camp roster, were quite poor.
Finally, it’s possible Skinner fails and the Oilers continue to get exposed by turnovers and loose play. Last night was ‘Crazy Horse at the Fillmore’ and the result was earned (to my eye) by the entire group.
I don’t think there’s reason to panic. This is a fine team focused on winning Stanley. Cut down on the suicide turnovers at the blueline, cut the individual efforts in half, and go back to playing a more sound defensive game.
When the Oilers are playing defense in their own end, it’s bad. Always bad. Pucks deep, win battles, play the game 200 feet from Stuart Skinner. The Oilers can do it. We’ve seen it. Recently.
And finally, if this team doesn’t get past Vegas, this team doesn’t deserve Stanley. The Golden Knights are a fine team, not a great one. The Oilers are a great team, or should be, and the combination of loose defense and a goalie who is not at his confident best can be fixed.
I think Kris Knoblauch might need to make some tweaks. Losing the five-on-five game is especially distressing.
Three early surprises for Edmonton Oilers in Golden Knights series
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6346187/2025/05/11/oilers-golden-knights-nhl-playoffs-2025-surprises/
3 games in a row the Oilers take a goalie interference against Hill. At least one goalie is being protected. It’s a start.
It’s almost as if Gary’s Expansion Darlings get preferential treatment.
https://x.com/BarDown/status/1921440821330542620
Well at least we know he’s not violent and is in control 😀
Clearly not the kind of guy to injure our goaltender. Such sterling character!
Seriously, imagine being Pickard right now. Best chance of your career and then you get cheap-shotted. There’s a chance Hertl costs Pickard millions.
More CHL grads heading to NCAA schools.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-prospects-anthony-romani-leaving-ohl-barrie-colts-ncaa-michigan-state
Yes, the list is sizeable:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/juniors/article/chl-to-ncaa-tracker-ohl-whl-qmjhl-players-going-to-u-s-college-ranks/
That the narrative is Skinner is ridiculous. Skinner made all the saves he needed to — only three pucks got past him all game. Goalies can’t be responsible when their own team starts shooting pucks in the net.
I agree, Skinner had no chance on the game winner, he was nowhere near his net, and that’s where the dang puck ended up going.
He needs to stop the flop. Whens he’s lying prostrate, face down, he’s literally swimming with no ability to catch or stop a puck with his hands. Stop the damned flop, face the shooter.
Florida shut out the Laughs.
So what’s the excuse again for 2 Goal Auston Matthews this year?
The path to success for the Leafs has involved trading Matthews for several years now. They won’t do it.
After the first 13 minutes the Oilers played like crap, they deserved that loss! Every Oiler on the and behind the bench was not good enough. They always have to make everything hard on themselves!!!!!
The Vezina trophy winner (assuredly) continues to leak goals just as meh as those Skinner and Pickard have.
Yes, a Vezina winner can play as poorly in the post season as Skinner and Pickard, it has been discussed extensively. So what is the point? If we had a Vezina goalie and played poor defensively we would have the issues? I think we all know that. What is Picks win record in these playoffs? I would argue in a race to 16 wins, that matters more than a save %.
The Vezina Trophy is awarded to the best overall goaltender in the REGULAR SEASON.
Connor Hellebuyck provided a .925 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA in 62 starts.
League average was .900.
Playoffs, of course, are a different animal since teams face significantly tougher competition.
Thus far in the playoffs, Winnipeg is giving up 3.33 GA/G while the Oilers are giving up 3.78 which is the highest number of all teams still active in the playoffs so the Jets are “leaking” less.
Skinner and Helly are both last place in above expected goals against during the playoffs. I’m not sure what conclusion you want us to take away from your comment?
What aboutism doesn’t change the fact that Skinner and Helly are cratering their teams chances at winning games
Half the fan-base think Skinner should never play another game for the organization and is an AHL goalie, etc., etc. – all while the best goalie in the world is playing at similar levels.
Acknowledging that good (even hall of fame good) goalies will go through ups and downs is important.
Stuart Skinner has gone through a down – there will be more ups – I am hopeful that starts tomorrow.
I don’t give two hoots about Hellebuyck and the Jets that have never won a Cup or even been to a Cup Final. All I care about is the Oilers winning a Stanley Cup if we have to do it with Rodrique or Delia because Skinner hasn’t been reset properly then so be it.
Perfect. If they want to win a Cup the only thing that matters is that they as a team decide that they will do whatever it takes. No matter what- sick sad mad hurt. Play the way you have to to win. Always been the same
Skinner played at an AHL level the entire season. He has not been established either. His future as an NHL goalie is definitely up in the air…
That is not factually correct.
I think everyone here wants to see that, I like Skinner, but people keep bringing up stats and comparisons to other goalies that are essentially meaningless
We need wins. If our tender has a .800 save % and wins, it doesn’t matter. Win. Doesn’t matter how. I pray Skinner wins every start from here on this run
So does everyone
The point of post is lost on most.
There are LOTS of very good goaltenders that have struggled in the playoffs – that does not mean they are bad goaltenders nor that they can’t find their game.
Skinner has done this in the past – he struggled against the Canucks last year and then, when he came back, was lights out in games 6-7 and most of the Dallas series.
The opinions posted as fact that the team cannot win with Skinner or that he’s an AHL goalie or his career is over are not based in fact.
I get it. The facts are Skinner has not won a single game this post season. Comparing him to other underperforming goalies looks like apologist commentary. Skinner has not won a game. So the narrative that the team can’t win with Skinner is true right? I mean it’s in the books, Skinner has 0 wins.
If Skinner allows a couple bad ones early, do they hail mary with Rodrigue?
I would. At least there’s a chance he will play well, which i can’t say with Skinner.
With how quickly they announced Pickard is not playing next game that probably means he’s not close
I thought the same thing. Very discouraging.
Keep winning 2/3 of the games and you’ll be fine boys. Had a bad game and lost by a goal. Let’s see how game 4 looks.
The farther a team advances, the more difficult it becomes.
That was so insightful. I can see why your blog was a roaring success.
The obvious is often impenetrable to some.
You are obviously a troll, it’s not debatable, it’s a fact, proven many times. I find it fascinating you consider something impenetrable to some, when your sole purpose on this blog is to invoke the comments you so desperately crave for validation, while arguing that’s not your intention. I will freely admit that your comments are completely IMPENETRABLE (big word points to you I’m sure you’re compensating for something…)to me, because I can’t fathom how someone would make this their deal. I think you need some compassion in your life.
I sure hope the Oilers team aren’t wasting as much time and energy assigning blame to their players on the various GA as we are.
With Skinner starting for the foreseeable, I think it is safe to say that we are going to have to be the better team, even marginally, in order to win.
Sure but there is every ability to Skinner to provide the level of goaltending that Pickard did during his 6 games. Confidence is low but that can change in an instant.
Of course it can. Here is the reality though. 3 starts and 3 loses, and some bad goals against. How is that helping his confidence?? Psychology for every person is unique and inherently unpredictable, but you tell me with confidence that not playing great, LOSING 3 starts, gives someone confidence. I like Skinner. He’s not playing well, he has lost every start this playoffs. I hope he was the mental strength and optimism you have. The win loss record disagrees with you.
How was Skinner’s confidence after losing two vs. the Canucks and getting sat for two games? He managed to win games 6 and 7 vs. the Knucks and then out play Jake O. (while stealing game 6).
I’m not overly optimistic – not at all. Skinner hasn’t been good enough. At the same time blanket statements regarding the team no longer having a chance or that Skinner is an AHL goalie or whatever are not based in fact.
Lets also not forget that Pickard has just been OK and Stu has every ability to provide at least the level of tending that Pickard had been.
So we have the only 2 goaltender interference calls yet our goalie was targeted by 2-3 attempts before Herrl was successful at knocking Pickard out for what looks like the series.
Not what I imagined when I put a unit on Drai scoring the GWG…😬😬😬😭😭😭
@TomGazzola
Not sure what this means about the extent of Calvin Pickard’s injury but Condors veteran goaltender Colin Delia is making his way up to Edmonton to join the team.
Pickard must be done. Delia experience might be a better option than beachball Rodrique if Skinner shits the bed like most expect next game.
It means that they need a goaltender to play with the Black Aces.
Oliver Rodrigue is the Black Ace goaltender…they don’t need two.
“The @Condors that are in Edmonton as Black Aces that skated yesterday at the DCA are:
Forwards:
Matt Savoie
Noah Philp-RFA
James Hamblin
Defence:
Cam Dineen
Philip Kemp-UFA G6
Goaltender:
Olivier Rodrigue-RFA
— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer “
Some people need Q cards to figure things out. I bet they announce he’ll need surgery shortly maybe that’s why the team looked bummed out last game. Why else bring up 30 something career AHLer if not for Pickard being done.
Might have been a good idea to test drive Rodrigue for more than 1 start in the regular season.
because they need a third goalie until Pickard is 100% – even if that’s 2-3 days away.
Rodrigue is now practicing with the main group – not sure how you miss that given he’s backing up.
In any event, they would want a third fully healthy goalie around – illness, injury, etc. could happen to Skinner/Rodrigue at any time
If you get down to your 4th string goaltender, the party is likely over.
It doesn’t seem like you are willing to understand the point.
you mean in general or only for the Oilers 😉 ?
With Pickard out, Rodrigue is now the back-up, therefore his spot is unoccupied in the Black Aces.
Hopefully you find this information helpful.
Vibes are almost as if the Oilers aren’t up 2-1 in the series with the best game on home ice.
Wild times!
I think the vibes are the oilers are 0 – 3 with the goalie they may have to use going forward.
0-4 going back to last year.
If you want to go back to last year, that goalie got 14 playoff wins – 4 against a final 4 team and 3 against the SC champs.
Some people have lost their minds because we’ve lost one game and forgets it is uncommon for teams to go 4-0 or even 4-1 these days.
They also lose their minds because they have zero faith in Skinner. They have quickly forgotten that he is an NHL goaltender who won 3 games last season during the Cup Final.
Call to start Rodrigue as actual opinions are wild to me.
I understand a lack of confidence in Skinner, shit, I have a lack of confidence at the moment. I also watched him win 14 playoff games last year with this core – there were bad games but there were also locked in game, in particular late in series. I know that was last year but we have evidence that he can play solidly to fantastic in the playoffs.
Its also lost on many (it seems) that Pickard was far from great or outstanding – he was good enough and he gets full credit and I wish he was available but he wasn’t stealing games, that’s for sure.
Vegas played like their lives depended on winning the game, the Oilers after the first 5 minutes not so.
Vegas was very tight defensively, Drai and McDavid had barely any room to breathe.
Looked like the Oilers went with 3 lines in the 3rd.
Defensively, Oilers D allowed to many oddman rushes for playoff hockey, or had a forward (Podkozlin) in the wrong spot who got walked.
Also, when the forwards skated hard on the backcheck, it was not always a smart backcheck. Too many times, an Oiler player skated hard on the backcheck which is great, but a trailing Knights player was not picked up and they got the puck and got a good chance or like Smith scored.
Skinner looked terrible in net. He gave the Oilers a chance to win, because he did make some great saves when needed for the Oilers to tie the game. But he was really fighting the puck all night and looked out of position after many saves.
Im expecting, defensively, the Oilers will clean up many of the mistakes, SKinner has a better game, and McDavid and Drai have a good game tomorrow.
or at least I hope that.
Please and thank you.
I think the “trust” issue regarding Skinner can be better thought of as a more concrete problem of single misalignments in defensive formations compounding further misalignments–basically a butterfly flapping its wings (or Skinner scrambling) leading to defensive breakdowns. Meaning that consistent poor defensive play in front of Skinner isn’t coincidental, or only a matter of trust.
We know that a dman can’t be in the right place if he doesn’t know/trust where his partner will be, but I think it’s the same for the goaltender and every member of the defensive formation. If you don’t know where your goaltender will be, whether he’ll play the puck to the right place, or if you’re expecting him to give up a juicy rebound and have no clue where that will go – one of the most chaotic of game states – then you really don’t know where you should be. And by the time you find out, it’s often too late.
Now, I’m not saying that Skinner is solely responsible for these misalignments–another player out of position can certainly be the reason that Skinner needs to go out of position–but I do believe he’s often at fault. And I also believe that the goaltender is the person who needs to calm the chaos when these sequences of defensive misalignments occur. Pickard does that better. So, even though Skinner might have a better toolbox, Pickard is the more effective backstop for this team right now. It sucks that so much rides on the goalie, but he’s the only constant and is always going to be the ballast of a team’s defensive formation.
What does where Skinner is have anything to do with McDavid completely failing to mark his defensive assignment on the winning goal. Smith was his man.
The team wasn’t in any sort of formation on that goal – I was speaking to the team’s formation when set up in the DZ. But even that goal speaks to Skinner’s positioning issues, as that overhead picture of the crease with Skinner nowhere in sight attests. My man should have used his size and stayed firm against the post, instead of scrambling around on his knees.
General observation. Be better.
Skinner losing his net or going walkabout can destroy defensive zone coverage and you get the frantic scrambles.
I would suggest that Calvin Pickard goes walkabout and loses his net more than Skinner.
Coach confirms Pickard NOT available for game 4.
Argh…. I was hoping. Hertl got away with that one..
Aware that LT doesn’t like GSAx, but this tells the story pretty well I think. EDM can win with Skinner in net, it will just be more difficult.
Cult had expected goals at 4 against for Skinner last night.
NST had xGA at 2.83, Moneypuck at 2.248. So Staples seems flat out wrong here. Unless this is his own expected goals concoction, which he should not call expected goals.
Yep Staples is out to lunch
The Cult does their own scoring chance analysis (and actually assign contributions/blame on chances for and against).
The Cult is not wrong, its simply a different model and, arguably, a better model as its based on actual human evaluation of each play (as opposed to “where a shot comes from” like NST).
Well aware of Cult’s contributions for and against project.
It’s wrong to call them “expected goals”. When Staples does that without attribution, it’s not at all clear what he’s talking about.
Expected Goals are models based on data. That is not David’s project. He doesn’t have a model, and he doesn’t observe games other than Oilers’ games.
I like his project. But calling them expected goals is wrong. AND in that game his observations are 2 goals different than 2 different models.
His model grades chances as high danger and a sub-set of 5-alarm and attributes a percentage of going in to each type of chance and uses that to create an expected goals data set.
His model is 100% based on data and, as alluded to, data that takes in to account context that NST does not. NST would not have included Drai’s one-timer (that he shot wide) as a high danger as they ONLY take in to account where a shot comes from and that was outside their high danger zone.
The Cult’s analysis is probably more accurate for Oilers games than NST.
Wow! This is so wrong. There is no model.They are grading subjective impressions of contributions to chances for and against. That’s not a model at all.
Bruce understood this well and was always looking for correlations between their grades and the various models.
Furthermore, David doesn’t have the background to construct and evaluate a model. And very clearly – neither do you!
Disagree – all the models are based on a determination of how many goals should have gone it based on what’s happened on the ice – generally shots and where they come from. That is no different than what the Cult does and the Cult does a better job than NST given NST’s vast limitations in its expected goal determination.
Expected Goals models take into account way more than attempt location. There is also shot type, shot distance, the speed of the shot, and advanced models will incorporate other information such as the height of the shot, player positioning, obstructions, the angle of the shot to the net, rebounds, and the delta time in between attempts. Cult does not record ANY of these attributes. They do not even record the shot distance: they only record their subjective impression of the quality of the chances in two categories.
Shot attempt location (only) was the basis for the scoring chances model.
The data associated with Cult’s subjective grades is valuable. But as a record of subjective impressions for one team collected from a small group of individuals there is no valid method there for the creation of a model.
Furthermore, there is no appropriate method to asses the validity (what you are calling accuracy) of Cult’s data. There is only a claim there.
As such, the project rests in between “the eye test” and objective measures. The strongest evidence for evalution is when all three agree: what we see on the ice; Cult’s counts; objective measures.
But make no mistake: there is absolutely no model there, and only someone who doesn’t really understand what a model is would call it one.
No, Natural Stat Trick, the example I continue to use does not take in most of those things in to account – that is the main issue.
Yes, the Cult of Hockey does take in to account all the context around a shot when they evaluate if it was a low danger, high danger or 5-alarm.
They evaluate each shot that could be a scoring chance and make a determination and, prior to Bruce’s passing has a second set of eyes on each.
They are using expected goals to mean the goals they would expect to be scored based on years of data on how many grade A and 5 alarm shots result in goals.
Qualitative data complements quantitative data. They are both useful. There is subjectivity with qualitative data of course but they do have methodology that’s been tweaked over the years.
I don’t think there are any other examples of multi year qualitative data projects on Oilers scoring chances in the public sphere so I find this work very valuable to add another layer of context to the discourse.
I’m not aware that “expected goals” is ™ – by anyone. Perhaps GSAx or Expected Goals? And I would imagine that anyone in the Oilers fan/critic base is aware of what David Staples is talking about.
LT, curious why you think Vegas is only a fine team and not a great one? I see the Eichel line eating McDrai’s lunch for the vast majority of their shifts and Vegas has the ability to keep the game very quiet for long long stretches with extremely refined NZ and DZ play. The Oilers are constant chaos in their own zone.
All the on-ice stats say McDavid and Draisaitl together – overall – have bettered Vegas.
There is too much parity in the league to every take the foot off the gas. The Oilers were guilty last night and got what they deserved. The first 10 minutes had everyone’s heads in the clouds thinking of a sweep including the players and their play after that showed it.
They have learned this lesson before in LA, in VAN last year, VGK two years ago, WPG several years ago, but they always seem to forget.
They lost the game long before 19:59 of the third period last night, a 4-3 final score after posting a 2-0 lead. VGK is hoping the series will parallel this game. The Oilers are in a position to write a different story, but it will require bringing high intensity from puck drop to the final horn.
Winning games you don’t deserve to win can breed mental and physical laziness, so the last night’s game has that positive lesson to take home. They can’t be lazy and win. It’s not going to be easy. It isn’t for any champion.
Swiss Cheese Skinner leaves such big gaping holes, 3 of those goals get stopped by most goalies. Sure he’s not the only one to blame. The Oilers don’t play their best often and last night was no exception. I think the Knights take the next 3 games without too much trouble if the Oilers play like they did last night.
They also need to be better in the positive game state, when leading. I’d consider going with this past the half way point when leading.
19-97-28
92-29-33
91-93-18
Give Janmark and Frederic a few shifts in place of 19/92. Fade Perry.
Perry scored two goals last night and was generally effective outside of those goals.
Stu not great, but not terrible that game in my opinion. That last play, however, was the dedinition of a single moment having a big impact. Can’t blame Drai on that goal imo, he saw an empty net woth the puck flying in and tried to deflect it out, shit happens when you’re scrambling. I do, however, blame Drai for the preceding 59.9 minutes of play where he was getting beaten to pucks, pushed to the outside, and intercepted. I don’t know if he’s injured, not feeling it, or overthinking it, but this hasn’t been a good series for him.
Not a lot of good options for KK and the forward lines. Play 97/29 together and they won’t defend giving back what they earn and then some. Ok so separate them, except it doesn’t look like Leon can survive at the moment without 97. He certainly didn’t with Kane and Perry. And then that wipes away the one consistent line with Nuge-Kane-Hyman.
I’m shocked to say this but I think I actually prefer loading them up as it also optimizes Perry who can’t play top 6 unless he’s with 97-29.
He looks injured to me. Not himself this series.
If I had to guess I think Stu will have a better game. He will be more relaxed and want to show better. I think coming into the last one was probably more stressful than typically, everyone pumped by Pick, having lost the net, forced back in. Other than for very mentally tough players it would amp up the pressure. But he’s done it, they lost, team gave him little support. Probably can’t be worse
Yes, LT, to all of the above.
It is telling when a reasonable defender of Skinner, like yourself, is not letting him off the hook.
And yes, this team needs to clean up its play. The first period, despite the shot totals, featured many dangerous chances, including a crossbar missed that could have made it 2-0 before the power play goal made it 3-0. Those first 10 mins are replicable. Vegas wants to make the opposing players impatient, and they played right into their hand yesterday
Bad news
Derek Van Diest
@DerekVanDiest
·
22m
Calvin Pickard is still day to day, will not play tomorrow. Stuart Skinner will get the start in Game 4.
Oh god!!
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/calvin-pickard-stuart-skinner-edmonton-oilers
Rodrigue?
Of course not, but frankly, I don’t think there would be much of a difference
If Skinner gets lit up I do think you have to go to a 80% Pickard or Rodrique for game 5. Anyhow I do think this game decides the series the Refs won’t call many penalties as our PP is to hot at home it’s going to come down to 5 on 5 play.
Can’t put in an injured Pickard. Would definitely give Rodrique a shot. Having Skinner run you to 4 more losses in a row to end the season is a fireable move… if Skinner plays like Skinner next game you cannot put him in a 3rd game. You have to try something else and hope for the best. Remember the definition of insanity…
Vegas will score at least 4 again next game.
It’s going to be hard to get more than 4 goals playing trap hockey to compensate for Skinner flopping like a fish out of water.
That play essentially describes two players careers, Nurse trying hard but starfishing himself out of position and unable to make a play. Skinner losing his net and chasing the puck. The only reason that puck goes in the net is Drai double timing it to cover the abandoned net. Skinner stays in net. He Makes a low danger save, Drai backs off. To OT we go
Have you ever played goal?
We see that goal differently.
Smith is coming down the middle with 2 defenders on either side of him.
Skinner, rightfully, comes out to challenge the shooter who should have no other option but to shoot.
Smith walks around coverage that Skinner should have been able to rely on.
Because he was challenging the shooter he cannot back up because that would leave the net exposed and he’s too far out to slide across.
His only option is to keep between Smith and the net, which he does admirably. He knows there’s almost no time left and only needs to delay the shot by a couple of seconds.
He does his job and by the time Smith is able to get it past him he can’t fire it in the net, it appeared to be going wide and time would expire.
It was unfortunate the way it ended up but not Skinner’s fault in any way shape or form.
Looks like Skinner overplayed it, lost his net, and everyone lost their sh!t trying to cover. Challenging the shooter like he was looked like very 1980s goaltending. But heck, that’s when I was playing. This doesn’t mean there weren’t mistakes leading up to this, the coverage was awful as well. Maybe 2 things can be right at the same time?
I get why Stu did that, he’s vulnerable short side high. The Oilers are poor with their sticks. I have seen other team’s players angle their sticks – and skates – to not be a part of the problem. The Oilers always wedge to create a deflection like they are on offense. Drai turns his blade over and maybe it deflects out. They aren’t aware of that as far as I can tell, and he could have if he was thinking about it
Sometimes they are trying to do too much when it’s too late, and a different choice is a better one. Like you are not in a post to block properly so don’t. In Drai’s case leave it to fate, in other cases let the goalie do his job and prepare for a rebound or tie up a player
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LC8Nk-2ndhs
Skinner will start Game 4. Pickard still day-to-day.
Thanks, Hertl.
Really?! That sucks
🎶 “Karn Evil Oil: Goalie Shuffle”
(To the tune of “Karn Evil 9, 1st Impression Part 2”)
By Emerson, Lake & Parody
🎤
Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends,
We’re so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside!
Pickard’s on the shelf, now Skinner’s by himself—
Will he stone ’em or just melt? Step inside, step inside!
Behind the net, confusion swells,
The bench just rang the injury bells,
Pickard’s knee said “nope” today—
So Skinner’s here to save the play.
His glove’s okay, his stance is wide,
But watch that five-hole—open wide!
He skates out slow with nervous grace,
And fans just chant with half a face:
🎶
Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends,
We’re so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside!
There’s a save! Or maybe not—
That wrister went in like a shot!
But he smiled and said “I got it next time, guys!”
Now Draisaitl’s losing hair,
McDavid’s whispering a prayer,
They block more shots than Stu does now—
It’s chaos in the crease somehow.
Yet in the postgame, Skinner beams,
“I’m feeling great, I stopped…a few teams.”
The crowd just laughs, they know the drill—
It’s Oilers netminding, heartache or thrill!
🎶
Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends,
We’re so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside!
He makes a stop, he lets one go—
It’s high-stakes comedy on ice and snow—
And you’re front row for the Stuart Skinner ride!
Well done, good sir.
Sometimes this team needs a wake-up call to get them playing sound defensively.
I don’t blame him for the loss, but I do wonder about Skinner this year. Has he lost the trust of the team? They don’t seem to play as well with him in net and I wonder if that’s because they are worried about their mistakes ending up in the net.
Finland plays at 12:20 mountain – might take a peak and get eyes on Atro Leppänen…..
Be cool to hear your take on his strengths/weaknesses given your regular viewings of other Oilers prospects.
If the Oilers are forced to defend, they will lose (because they are mostly all weak defenders). If they can move the puck quickly enough to avoid defending they will win, because they have the best offensive talent in the league.
There is no stable state. When they are defending they are losing. When they are attacking they are winning.
Well said. Last night trailing 3-2 in the third I felt more comfortable watching it than I did last game when they had a 4-2 lead. This variant of the Oilers, missing Ekholm, does not even have what you could call a shutdown pairing, or even a single shutdown defensive defensemen. They’re built to retrieve pucks and send them flying back out of the zone. The second they try playing a shutdown defensive game, Vegas hems them in the Oilers’ zone and hammers them repeatedly. It’s a weird conundrum—they need back pressure support from forwards, but also need them to cheat a little to open up the neutral zone to fling a puck up ice and transition out.
Interesting to me that no Oilers player went overboard on the obvious missed slash on McDavid on his shift after the goal. That same slash breaking a stick gets called 9/10 times in season but no one called the ref out by name, not mentioned the playing Roy that should have been suspended. Did any Vegas players or coaches get fined for their comments? Doubt it.. but that missed call definitely had an impact on the end result, you can be sure. I don’t think the Oilers deserved to win that game, just thought it interesting how it’s not a talking point at all but a similarly timed missed call last game was all anyone wanted to talk about
It’s common place for missed calls on McDavid. I’m glad that the refs didn’t play a prominent role.
They did, by missing the call. That’s the point. 2 games in a row, now
I am trying to think back to the last game the Oilers lost, but deserved to win.
Last night was not that night. Games 1 and 2 in LA certainly weren’t either. (Maybe the March 20 game against the Jets? Maybe…?)
Generally this team’s losses come by way of mediocre goaltending, forwards ignoring their defensive structure, and over passing the puck and being too fancy on plays. Last night was a combo of all three and it looked like the kind of weak regular season effort that we complained about all year.
Stuart Skinner was right last night when he said his job is to give the team a chance to win. Thats the mindset every back up should have and that’s what Stu is: a backup. I feel very sorry for him, as he has been asked to do more than the job he had been auditioning for until the end of the Campbell experiment. That experiment was never rectified. We are just riding two decent backups.
Above I listed what I see as three core problems that emerge when they lose: 1) mediocre goaltending, 2) not enough support from F in own end 3) lack of intensity on F.
If this team can’t take care of 2 and 3 in order to saw off 1 just because its your *other* backup then this team’s problem is not Stuart Skinner… And maybe we need to question the accepted wisdom of never blaming the best players for losses.
Good news is this team’s best players feel shame, and rarely let the bad habits become prolonged. Game 4 is obviously huge. And I don’t see Edmonton playing worse than last night.
I hope not that was baaad. Only 20 SOG, definitely chased that one
Yeah I am struggling to recall one. I just remember a huge Skinner rebound.
That is a good post. Agree with all of that.
Definitely felt like a regular season effort last night, I felt that too.
They will be better next game all round.
Good write up LT. Well said. Group effort last night of poor play. Play the last shift like you mean it. That is the worst game I have seen King Leon play in oilers threads. He was responsible in different percentages on 3 goals against and gave the puck away over and over. I believe he is hurting a bit but decision making was awful.
I thought Bouch was mostly excellent and not too many were.
Not Stu’s fault only but again an L and not a W. He gets analyzed to death by this blog the media and it is tough but he needs a win.
They better pick up their socks or they will be out quickly playing like that, Vegas slogged the game down and made the oil play their game.
We are up 2-1 and 97 has only 1 goal. Drai cannot have a worse game. The sun will shine.
I said this on Mastodon: Too many blaming the goalie this morning. This loss is not on Skinner. The team was gifted a win in Game 2. The team, not the goalie, gave that gift back in Game 3.
If the team had won, and by the Hockey Gords they were not that far from it, we might be remembering how a returned-from-concussion goalie saved the game for his team with a number of good, even great, saves. Any mention of those saves this morning seems begrudging. Oilers fans, give your head a shake.
No! Pickard stole game 2 even injured. That gives confidence in the team. Pickard is no true number 1 but he is good enough for this team. Team has no confidence in Skinner (on merit) and they are spending all their focus trying to defend instead of attacking which is their strength. Skinner was a -1 on goals above expected…again by the way. They just need average goaltending. Pickard gives them average, Skinner gives well below average, this is eye test and all stats for the whole year. If Skinner is our guy for the rest of the series the Oil are done! And you can post how the team wasn’t good enough for Vegas and not Skinner.
He definitely doesn’t deserve full blame but I also don’t have trust as of yet when he is in. Skinner did make some great saves. Skinner was also fighting the puck and looked uncomfortable. The team was very poor last night. Skinner just hasn’t/doesn’t make that extra save that Picks has been making to get a W. Even before the concussion his year has been poor. I think he will be better next game because of coming off that injury but so will the team, feels like they are and should be embarrassed.
— All the best on Mothers Day.
— Especially for Allan and others here whose Families Mother Figures left too soon.
I generally always defend Skinner and will continue to do so but the problem is you develop a past. That past, fair or not, has built a lack of trust between Skinner and the team in front of him.
You can hear it in the verbal, especially from our captain. You can see it in the body language, and in the teams play in front of Skinner. It’s like moments of zero threat someone in blue and orange is running around screaming my hairs on fire and all his teammates believe him then also start screaming and chaos ensues when really it was just the reflection of a setting sun- no actual fire.
Last nights goal with .4 seconds left was pretty much pure comedy (if it was the Leafs we would be laughing our a$$es off) It’s like when you are watching Timbits play and they are all going to the puck carrier and then the puck moves and they all go that direction, flopping and diving. That was the final 10 seconds. Crazy.
Remember game 5 of LA series? That was the same team?? Hard to wrap your head around it all.
I didn’t watch the post game interviews. What did McDavid say about Skinner?
It wasn’t in this interview I noticed it, it was when he spoke about Pickard and never once mentioned we trust both goalies. It was always how impressed he was and how hard we play for Pickard.. and to see his expression after every goal against Skinner..
All the stars including coach said many times when they were losing with Skinner in net: “every mistake seems to end up in the back of our net”. Heard this many times..
This is highly exaggerated – almost to the point of being a dishonest statement.
What it comes down to is the team needs to play sound defensively in front of Skinner, just as they do in front of Pickard. Why they wouldn’t is incomprehensible.
I think they have developed a lack of trust which creates, less call them ‘Nurse-isms’ where each member of the team starts to try to do someone else’s job instead of worrying about their own, and all hell breaks loose!
All the more reason to protect their goalie. They’re professional athletes, they should know their jobs.
Reilly Smith was McDavid’s guy on the winning goal.
And folks are hanging Skinner out to dry… Sad.
Adan Hill had an 5×5 .850 sv% last night in a 4-3 winning effort.
His sv% in the series is 0.844 at 5×5.
His sv% in the playoffs is 0.870 at 5×5.
Keep that in mind before you shit on our tenders.
Yes and his coach called him out.
It’s not how many, it’s when Skinner let’s in stoppable pucks. Who cares about the stats, it’s the timing.
Hill has sucked, though. Who is giving him praise?
Agreed, now Skinner says: hold my beer…
All six guys on the ice share the blame on that winning goal imo. It’s like they all figured the siren would sound to end the period. No need to defend properly. Nurse should have have held the forechecker up more, giving Kulak time to get to the puck first in the corner. Then he gets caught puck watching instead of denying the pass into the slot. Then he charges at Smith and flops instead of defending him properly. Smith goes around him like a pylon as you would expect. Kulak is slow to retrieve the puck allowing Smith to get there first. He then goes for the hit instead of denying the pass out front with his stick. McDavid is fine on the back check, but also gets caught puck watching, not denying the pass, then joins Nurse as a pylon for Smith to go around. Not sure where Draisaitl was on the back check, but obviously late getting back and the unfortunate bounce off his stick into the net. And I’m not even sure who the fifth skater was, Perry or Hyman? Whichever isn’t in the picture so also failed on the back check like Draisaitl.
Then there is Skinner. I’m sure he also expected the horn to sound, but why he decided to charge out towards Smith I’ll never know. Why not stay at the top of the crease to eliminate the chance of the shooter skating around you? If he does that, it’s a nothing play, even after the shitshow that had just ensued in front of him. Combine this with at least one other goal in the game you’d like him to stop, and you have to Start Pickard even if he’s 80-90% the rest of the way
McDavid was lost in the supermarket on the winning goal. He was responsible for the trailer Smith, and his mind was already in OT. No goal if he played to the buzzer.
Hyman was just coming on the ice for a gassed Connor Brown. Not able to join in .
The team has awful changes and shift management. I notice it killing attacks as they change then a lot. One game I watched the Knights changes and they don’t do that
Skinner cut off the angle. That puck was not headed for the net. Then, at 0.4, divine intervention…
Drai was back checking to cover the now wide open net the puck went to! Drai is unable to know in the moment that there is only 0.4 seconds left on the clock or know if there was any other Vegas players in the vicinity. Very unfortunate to knock on his own net but asinine for people on here to criticize Drai for busting his ass to try and clear the puck from the WIDE OPEN NET that was sitting there…
1) I would expect the player have a sense of how much time is left as well as to know if their opposition players in scoring areas.
2) Yes, absolutely, great effort helping defend – of course, poor execution as he put the puck in to that empty net and it would otherwise have not gone in.
https://x.com/woodguy55/status/1921591591606575189?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
as mentioned below. Nurse is a liability
Yup imo he is a bigger issue than our goalie situation.
Broberg fixed that! -). Just like he fixed Justin Faulk this year.
Broberg Faulk 5v5 111:11 TOI 2025 playoffs
CF% 41.71
FF% 40.94
SF% 41.43
xGF% 41.72
HDCF% 40.00
GF% 100.00 6-0
Nurse Broberg 5v5 66:40 TOI 2024 playoffs
CF% 34.03
FF% 33.33
SF% 37.70
xGF% 30.21
HDCF% 33.33
GF% 66.67 4-2
I don’t know about fixed, but I bet he has trouble at airports with those horse shoes. Props to the lad for getting into the 4’s
The horseshoes have been working for a full year now. Top 3 in GF% for D with over 1000 minutes played this year in the NHL.
Coaches need to sit down with him in the offseason and retrain him. When he goes down, and he often goes down, he almost never makes a play. Stay on your skates and use your stick
Nonsense
If we don’t see Pickard next game he’s probably done for the series and our playoff hopes in my opinion. I do think Bowman has seen enough and trades Skinner the problem is the sweetner keeps going up and up with every consecutive loss by Skinner.
So much for my prediction of continued home ice success. Vegas is looking at game 3 as a momentum builder they will be bringing it to game 4. Edmonton can’t let the Knights back into this series. Let it be another lesson. Get the lead and hold on to it. It’s getting tiresome considering this is nothing new.
Morning folks,
Great games yesterday here in Kamloops. Manitoba completes the double gold as their male team beat Alberta 4-2, and the their female team beat BC, 2-0. It was a bittersweet ending for Team BC as this was the first time their female team made the finals. They were lead by Dani Maynard, who will be going off to Penn State on a scholarship, and was recently on the U-18 Canadian women’s team that won gold. Remember that name. To watch her close gap on forwards (she plays D) is a site to behold. Arvidsson, Podkolzon, and Walman could learn a thing or two.
I’ve yet to see the final 5 minutes, but I did see the first period as there was a break in between games here in Kamloops. Corey Perry continues to impress. The turnover by Draisaitl on that first goal was brutal, and to my eye, he tends to turn it over when he skates with the puck in the left lane or mid-left lane. For some unorthodox reason, he has better zone entires on the right lane. From what I have read, 29 did not have a good game nor 97.
I see the Skinner hate is coming on strong this morning, but really, he plays the shooter and the puck was going wide only to be deflected. Stuff happens. A 7 game heater would have been nice, but the series is still 2-1 and the next game is at home.
One thing I don’t like is Coach Garlic keeping 97 and 29 on the ice for extended periods late in tie games. Neither is going to win a Selke anytime soon and being physically gassed doesn’t help.
So, let’s flush last night down the toilet and focus on the next game.
Go Oilers Go.
Thanks.
My take on that is he’s the best, maybe top two depending on where you rank Crosby, at protecting the puck on his back hand. He’s the best backhand passer in the leauge and it remains a threat to defenders, probably buying him a bit more time and space based on fear/reputation.
I think he has so much confidence that he thinks he’s unstoppable. He, along with McDavid, they take risks no other players have the ability to take and every so often it doesn’t work. If you’ve got it flaunt it and why not.
I try to build confidence in KK but he takes it away. It seems he’s another coach that can’t reign the group all of the way in, and hasn’t built enough trust with his players, which affects their confidence, and goes with the obvious all of the other coaches did. KK’s MO was supposed to be his focus on building relationships with players. Maybe he thinks he doesn’t have enough of the right types
I miss how Sather coached a similar team. A coach that leads strongly and is innovative, and knows how to handle thoroughbreds. I would love to see them put all of the pieces together at the same time and mostly keep it there
KC Jones once remarked that coaching Larry Bird was tough because of Bird’s skill and leadership. He said one time he was drawing up a play and Bird said, “Coach just get it to me in the corner and tell everyone to get out of the way!”.
Jones shot back, “Larry, I’m the coach here, so let me draw up the play! Ok, now Danny you take it in, get the ball to Larry in the corner and everyone get out of way!”
Yes, you are the coach and players need to understand that, but sometimes you need to let your best players do what they do best.
It can’t be easy managing that relationship
I don’t like the fact that he always has Leon and McDavid on the ice to end every game and period even when they are struggling. I wish he had a better feel and provide ice time at critical times to who’s playing well not always leaning on McDavid-Leon. It’s almost like he feels obligated to play these guys no matter what the actual circumstance dictates.
And we have seen him do that in rare games and it worked well
Sound words today LT… bad habits get bad results.
I’ll keep posting the same theory until proven different. I trying to squint hard to see if this team is a Colorado 2022…@ team that was clearly the best and would only have lost due to terrible luck or injury.
Most fans are considering our negative game state (trailing) performance as the best indicator of our true level. “Only the Oilers can beat the Oilers” or similar narratives. We’ve trailed a ton in these playoffs so it’s understandable that’s what we’re feeling is the norm. But as I’ve said, when you only dominate during negative game states you need to consider that it’s quite possible the Oilers dominance when trailing is due to the Kings and Knights sitting back. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. But if this is a true Colorado 2022 team it would dominate in neutral or positive game states.
As we continue to evaluate their play in neutral and positive game states, well, it’s not very good. From the time the Oilers went up 2-0 until McDavids little surge at the end, the Grade A’s were 11-1 Vegas.
And for once that included a fair amount of time trailing in the 3rd and the Oilers still being outplayed.
This team is in the tier with the other 7 teams but there’s zero evidence there’s any separation.
In terms of team play they are not at the level of most of the other top teams. What gets them by is having three elite offensive players, and an elite two way D when he’s healthy. We have seen better play deeper down the roster these playoffs and fewer players struggling, but they can’t seem to play strong games consistently
Really there was only game five against the Kings. They won 6 in a row, but I can’t call 5 of those strong games, their talent won them not overall team play. Getting behind, losing leads, collapse of special teams, goalie just barely doing enough
I have made the point many times, especially about last playoffs. The final step, which they may never take, is to iron that out. Then the talent would make them the juggernaut a team with this level of players should be. Like it once was
Coaches must have no confidence in Stecher, which seems odd to me. They prefer Emberson on a couple of PKs a game and only 5-6 minutes at ES, which taxes the rest of the D who have to pick up extra minutes.
Drai has looked poor these past two games, I wonder if the injury that felled him at the end of the season is still bothering him. Sure looks like it.
That said, Knights have outplayed Oilers past two games and only gotten a split, and there’s a good chance Stone may be out next game or more, and McD is yet to go supernova for a game or two. I still like our chances.
Stecher likes big moments (world championships), I think he deserves a look sooner than later. There is less risk trying him while holding a lead than losing again not trying him
Something is up with Drai, but that doesn’t have to mean play poorly. He could choose to play a simpler safer game if he can’t do his normal stuff
There is a reasonable chance that the coaching staff took a very minor tweak to Pickard as an opportunity to gave his a couple full days of rest and he’s 100% ready to go for Monday.
Of course, that is based on nothing objective.
Do you think if Pickard was in goal Edmonton would have won last night?
Well, this was plain wrong – Pickard not available for game 4.
I don’t agree with the narrative that the Oilers aren’t built for defense. They aren’t built to be a shut down team because they have elite players that aren’t guys like Barkov
To me there is a difference between being a shut down team which means you don’t have enough offense to win any other way, like the 06 team, and just playing poorly and and unthinkingly
When they are as bad as last night it’s the latter. A team this old should be a smart team. Should adjust to what each game brings, like you don’t have it or it’s heavy legs night, so play a simple safe game. Perry plays smart almost always
I went to CoH to get perspective on my take and it was backed up. Leon was spectacularly bad. I’d put more of the loss on that than anything else. If he had a decent game, not great, I think it would have looked quite different
The constant turnovers are a momentum and morale killer, just as are Stu’s weak plays. Leon made some good plays and Stu some good saves, but it’s not enough to counter balance the terrible ones. There needs to be a baseline of solid decent play from everybody to even out game to game team play. It would make illness and nagging injuries less of a factor. Those things don’t mean collapse in quality is the only possible result, it doesn’t for many other teams
Hopefully they respond with something more like what they are capable of
Picks is day to day. I don’t think there’s any doubt its his net when he’s healthy.
Despite an awful game by almost the whole squad it was 3-3 until the meltdown. Team was nearly up 3-0 if Drai gets it half an inch lower (what’s the post differential in this series?).
Skinner is getting a lot of heat but Hill has been a sieve this series and he wasn’t much better against the Wild.
Ideally last night serves a reminder going forward.