These old eyes don’t see as well as they used to, but from what I’ve observed Edmonton Oilers fans should feel good about the current state of affairs. The upcoming series versus Dallas Stars, which begins tonight, offers no guarantees.
Still, compared to last season’s Oilers, this one has some real advantages. I’m a fan of this defensive group, three solid pairings before Mattias Ekholm returns. Music! I’m also impressed with all four lines, and the ability to successfully juggle lines and pairings on the spot. That is due in part to significant utility (many centers, plus defensemen who can play on their off side, like Brett Kulak) and bodes well for the attrition to come.
I’m never going to tell you how to fan, but it’s possible one of these two teams comes out flat tonight. It happened to the Carolina Hurricanes last night against Florida Panthers, and many observers believe Carolina will exit quickly after Game 1. I think that’s probably an overreaction to one game, and that could be the conversation tomorrow.
LINES AND PAIRINGS (MONDAY SKATE)
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: This unit played against Dallas a year ago, and would have to be regarded as the “safe” trio at the top of the lineup. During the regular season, this line delivered a 56 percent goal share in 317 five-on-five minutes.
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen. This line was 3-3 goals in 85 minutes five-on-five during the regular season (61 percent expected). In the playoffs, it’s 1-0 goals in 19 minutes with an impressive 86 percent expected goals in a very small sample.
Kane-Henrique-Brown. This line didn’t play together at all during the regular season (Kane injury). In the playoffs, they are 2-3 goals (35 percent expected) in 34 minutes. Of all the lines that may be shelved, this is one.
Frederic-Janmark-Perry have played just 16 minutes together in the playoffs, with zero goals and 46 percent expected goals five-on-five. Perry’s like a bird on a wire with this coaching staff, he could be on the top line at the midway point of the anthem.
Kulak-Bouchard is the top pair according to Monday’s reporting from Tony Brar. In 83 minutes five-on-five this postseason, the duo is 2-1 goals and owns an expected goal share of 68 percent.
Nurse-Stecher is the listed second pair, suspect the tandem will be No. 3 in five-on-five minutes. The two have played together often, going 54 percent (52 percent expected) in 470 minutes during the regular season. They haven’t play much in the playoffs yet, but are 1-0 goals (56 percent expected) in 27 five-on-five minutes.
Walman-Klingberg are potentially the stars of the show against Dallas. Good boots, good smarts, good passing and the experience to anticipate what’s coming. They barely played together in the regular season. In the playoffs (110 minutes), they are 4-2 goals and 64 percent expected goals. Absolute game changer pairing supplied by Stan Bowman. He downplayed it a little in the media avail, but that’s a helluva fix right there.
Stuart Skinner is the starter for Game 1. He began the playoffs poorly and most recently stopped everything in sight. Goalies are voodoo. To borrow a line from my favourite song, “red means run son, and numbers add up to nothing” so we will start there and follow the changes.
A busy day on the Lowdown as we set up Game 1 of the WCF. We have Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic live from Dallas at 1:20 and will break down both sides and discuss what to expect. Also spend time on the Panthers-Hurricanes series. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio, Radioplayer Canada, it’s available post-show on apple and spotify, and we tweet it out on X.
New for The Athletic: What Oilers did (and didn’t do) well against Stars in 2024 playoff series
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6369887/2025/05/21/oilers-stars-nhl-playoffs-series-stats/
I think the biggest difference for the Oilers this year over last (which you did mention) is the physicality. First the pundits went on and on about how LAK were bigger and tougher. Then it was the giant trees on the VGK defence that were going to beat the Oil.
No on both counts, team needs to come out hitting hard on the DAL d-men.
Physicality. 5v5.
We rode a hot a PP and a never seen before PK. This year our 5×5 is the best I’ve seen since the mid eighties this coincide perfectly with the refs putting away the whistles. Our D is just rounding into form as Walman and Klingberg are getting settled in and they add such a different look then Dez and Ceci. I don’t think Dallas is going to be prepared for the bombardment of grade A chances coming at them head on.
Oh Stu, you had the type of game that made me google Calvin’s injury status.
I have no problem with the high sticking calls except, as has been pointed out, others were ignored.
I do have a problem with the call that started the debacle. Marchment, a well-known embellisher, through 2 maybe 3 layers of traffic. It was a ‘this needs to be a penalty’ call based entirely on game state and manufacturing drama. Yes, kill the damn penalty. But it was another intentional execution of Momentum Switch Protocol.
At 2:11 (17:49 remaining) of the 3rd, Podz gets highsticked at the redline, and there is no call. Less than 20 seconds later, Perry gets called for a high stick.
High sticking is the most frustratingly random penalty.
My over under prediction oddly bang on…
Oilers up -> dallas gets 3 power plays in a row.
Who coukd hace imagined
Well i don’t feel terrible about that one. Unfortunate loss but definitely winnable
I only feel terrible that they were in control until the PK couldn’t lock it down, and then the PP couldn’t come up big. I do feel the first 40 min are more representative of how the Oilers will play going forward than how soft they were on the PK in the killer 6 min.
The PP was 1/3. That should be sufficient with good 5v5 play to win the game.
Agreed. I meant that last PP… a goal there would have been huge. It would have tied the game again and likely stopped, or at least slowed down, Dallas’ momentum.
Coach KK could’ve used a timeout after the extended delayed penalty. Giving PP1 a breather. Pretty pretty sure he never used that time out.
It didn’t look like they were interested in blocking any shots. Terrible pk. Dallas pp was good but not that good. Oilers gave it away.
Get into those shooting lanes guys no excuse.
Dallas took over the faceoff circle after the 1st period
I hope this was a very good lesson for them. Now they’re playing very very good teams. You can’t just score at will against them. They blinked and got fed.
Perry really took a bad penalty early in the 3rd.
Refs totally played by Duchene there and then he scores on the PP he drew. That was a critical moment in the game too. That poor call completely changed the complexion of the game. Doesn’t matter if the calls even out. Timing and sequence matters. I hope the refs see video of that. That’s a prime example of them making a call without honestly seeing the play. Absolutely ridiculous.
That said, PK is a mess. Has been for long stretches. At this stage of the playoffs, you don’t get away with this..
Leon got caught forcing the play a few times. Gotta clean that up.
They absolutely could beat these guys. Dallas is a great team but they don’t have the uber-elite talents that can just create.
Lastly, is there any more annoying chant than “USA!”?
A later replay showed Kane’s stick caught his cheek.
If that’s true, I stand corrected!
Video evidence shows its true.
That’s a soul-crushing defeat, the kind of comeback game the Oilers delivered earlier in the playoffs.
What use winning the 5 v 5 game at the cost of special teams?
I’d put three goals on Skinner. He’s back to swimming around and not tracking the puck. Terrible
Which ones?
I’m curious as to which ones as well. I’d say only one is really one he had much control on (the 4th one), but even then, he was screened, lost sight of where the puck was, then all players were slow to react.
The 3rd, 4th and 5th. He’s gotta make those saves. What the hell was he doing on the winning goal?
The PK is going to give up shots. None of those PP goals were amazing caliber. No cross ice tap ins. No double deflections.
Screened shot with no tracking. High shot that he saw go over his shoulder. Texas scramble on the 3rd. The last was probably the one that they could have better defended but where the eff was Skinner? Pickard would have been in his net
The 1st PP goal was a well placed shot with a ton of screen in front. The 2nd was also a well placed shot, but it also had a good screen – the kind we applaud Perry or Hyman for doing. Skinner was more or less squared up so I’m not sure how you can say there was no tracking, but he probably was smaller in the net than he should have been, but it still wasn’t an easy save.
Easy to say that Pickard would have been in his net, much harder to prove it. Alas, we will never know.
A competent goalie stops at least one of those 3 shots. A strong goalie stops 2 of them. Doesn’t have to be Pickard.
Sometimes even a great goalie lets all 3 in. Alas, we’ll never know because it’s pretty much impossible to recreate those shots with someone like prime Hasek in net instead of Skinner.
Jake Otteniger got beat on three clean shots. Two or three posts.
I’ll take a look at the goals on Skinner again.
The Duchene PP goal was chaotic, he lost track of the puck, but I’m not sure Skinner could do much about that. Hintz was deep in his crease when things went sideways.
For those saying Skinner gave up his net… I can only tell you that you are WRONG. He was in his net for every goal, except for the empty netter. I love Pickard, but I don’t see him stopping any of the goals Skinner gave up. Credit to Dallas shooters.
I’m not trying to antagonize the Skinner haters. I’m just saying take a breath, get your emotions in check and have a sober look at the replays.
Stuart Skinner can’t be everything everywhere all at once.
2, 4 and 5 I’m presuming.
Not tracking, stopped playing, and not tracking again.
You have to follow the puck with your eyes if you’d like to stop it at a high percentage.
On the 2nd goal, I don’t think he even saw the shot.
Watch the goals again and see what Skinner is actually doing.
2nd goal again. He is looking over the shoulders of the screening Star and the Oilers D, sees a shot being loaded up, decides to try to cover the lower part of the net, which is generally the way goalies play that situation. Skinner admitted that he should have looked to the right side quicker, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t tracking the puck because he did when the shot was still on Heiskanen’s stick and about to be released.
4th goal was all around slow reactions. Skinner was very much tracking the puck, then lost it, then everyone was slow to react.
5th goal wasn’t about tracking at all. Skinner was in front of that all the way. The shot was going wide until Seguin, who was behind Skinner, got his stick on it through sheer luck or complete skill or a combination of both. Draisaitl gave up his check on Seguin that allowed Seguin to be in that spot and to have his stick free.
Such a lazy narrative to go after Skinner after every loss. This loss was on special teams.. emphasis on the word teams, of which Skinner is one of 5 members. I’m so very tired of the knives coming out for Skinner every time a game doesn’t go our teams way.
Pickard 6 – 0, Skinner 2 – 4. They both play behind the same team.
They both played behind the same players, but I think a strong argument can be made for the way the team played being different in each game.
Agreed. They don’t seem to implode when Pickard is between the pipes. Does the team not play with as much confidence when Skinner let’s in a softie? I gave Skinner kudos for Games 4 & 5 of the Vegas series but I believe that ill timed brain farts contributed significantly to tonight’s loss.
I don’t buy the narrative that the team doesn’t have confidence in Skinner or plays differently in front of Skinner.
Does the team play better in front of Pickard? Well, per Woodley, during the regular season, Pickard has a top 5 “environment” in the league (i.e. easiest to play goalie in) and Skinner was middle of the pack.
The Oilers certainly imploded last night (mainly discipline in taking penalties – the plays leading to goals except the first weren’t egregious) but played two locked down defensive games in the two games prior.
It seems random as opposed to being based on which goalie is playing – at least to me.
https://x.com/DarbyYEG/status/1925379638421033020
Dallas didn’t even play well yet they get a gift wrapped presents from Skinner. Every time he handled the puck he was confused. What do you do if he’s brain dead in the next game as well?
Play Rodrigue.
He can win. The Oilers don’t actually need stellar goaltending, and the Stars aren’t terribly good. The actual “chances” tonight were minimal.
Except for the fact that he’s not available to play.
Rodrigue is perfectly available. Read the post man.
5v5 they were the better team but the PK can’t be that bad. Hopefully they can figure out how to be more effective.
I think the 3-2 goal is the worst one, other than that I don’t really fault Skinner. He wasn’t great but Dallas picked corners and batted in pucks too.
Had to (HAD TO!!!) get through that first kill at the start of the third.
I don’t fault Skinner on any but the winner, where it looks like he gave up and expected a challenge, for which the game can be blamed.
Play to stop every pick, Stu. He appeared to give up on a pretty saveable scramble.
Connor was flying for 40, and then withered away.
Oilers in 5.
I agree that the 4th one was the only one that Skinner had any real control over. He was screened, then lost sight of the puck, then all Oilers on the ice were slow to react.
LT actually misspelled the title of the post today. It was supposed to be WTF GAME 1?!: OILERS AT DALLAS
Haha. 🙂
What the heck?? First pk looked great.. no scoring chances for Dallas and two shorty chances for us. Ever since, it fell apart. Need to keep out of the box!!
Be nice if ekholm is back for game 2 or 3.
The PK didn’t whiff on point shots or stop playing while the puck was live because it imagined interference.
Watch the goals against closely… two of the PP goals against were full on screens with well placed shots, so hats off to the Stars. The 4th goal was also a screen, but then slow reactions all around by the Oilers.
Other goalies find a way to look around screens.
He stands there hoping to be hit.
The 4th, he stopped playing. For at least the 5th time these playoffs alone.
You can’t just stop and hope they don’t score.
He was then complaining that some phantom Stars player did something to him.
He spaces out and doesn’t recover without a break.
Simply not a starter.
The Oilers are just full of surprises.
Simple plan for this period for the Stars paid well: 2 Stars skates in Skinners crease at all times
Big opportunity missed.
Nobody is going to convince me that Skinner played well tonight, sorry. The PK didn’t deserve those numbers
Correct.
He stopped tracking the puck and it was done.
That’s fine. The PK was great. Dallas absolutely sniped their goals.
Skinner doesn’t care what you or I think. I think he had a very solid game.
Oilers were the far better team. Keep your sticks down and we’ll be fine.
Your perspective on a “snipe” suggests you may not have a clear view on what that term means.
I define a snipe as a quick, well placed shot. Like Leon’s opening goal, Nuge’s PPG and Bouchard’s wrister. I’m also willing to to give the opposition credit. It’s up to the team to limit those looks.
I hope he bounces back too and I really hope he doesn’t care what I think. But we have lots of data to suggest an inconsistent goalie on a down year. The Oilers were a better team that lost the goalie battle while Oettinger was not at his best.
Skinner didn’t deserve that PK… Skinner was good for the first 40 min and made a number of good to great stops. Then the PK gave up the front of the net pretty badly… screens all around. Slow reactions all around on the 4th goal. I don’t expect to change your mind, but it’s still worth providing a counterpoint.
I provided the rationale before the game. PK GA all year long has significantly exceeded xGA. Tonight was no different. Our opinions are both irrelevant. But once again, the goalie was not good enough on the PK.
I can think of another name for “Bichsel”…
They will learn from this and bounce back
This is the kind of game I’d expect from the Oilers in 2023.
As they learn to win we can learn some patience. That was a loss, but if I’m Dallas I am not comfortable entirely. 5×5 that was Edmonton’s game and everyone knows it. Edmonton has to fix the pk, starting by veterans not taking stick penalties away from the puck. That ought to be the easiest fix a team can make.
Brutal 3rd period. We were in total control…..
You know when would have been a great time for a TO? After the tying goal.
Two things the Oilers do very seldom:
Shoot on a 2-on-1.
Call a timeout to stall opposition momentum.
I mentioned that earlier
IIRC Knobs called a timeout when Vcr made it 3-2 in the seventh game of last year’s Division final (with a stabilizing effect)… so he knows he has the power!
Klingberg has had himself a nice game. Too bad nobody could finish his excellent setups.
You’re up Olly. No pressure.
I didn’t see Skinner anywhere on the 6-3 goal!!!!
Yeah, he was terrible on that one. Completely ridiculous read on his part. 😉
Never backtrack to the outside 2!
Left Steel the easy lane to the net front.
Lots of missed stick waves all around there
That should have been a straightforward win. But when the net doesn’t have anyone standing in the way, hockey’s pretty tough.
3rd-period goal differential sure evaporated in a hurry tonight.
What a disappointing collapse. Talk about stealing defeat from the jaws of victory. I am no goaltending expert but sure feels like we had the second best tender tonight.
To be fair, Edmonton has had maybe 5 posts and the Nuge open net whiff. It’s not all on Oettinger. But it’s just an unfortunate series of events in a quick succession. It sucks but this is why they play a series.
4 goals against and an EN in 3rd period… Absolutely terrible…
Stu has 2 shutouts and still has one of the worst sv% of any goalie in the playoffs.
The PK is not doing him any favours.
Two shutouts and four games sub .850.
The PK definitely failed at letting him see the puck.
If you’d have told me one year ago today that this year’s special teams would be this bad, I would have had trouble believing you.
Wow he can’t make a save that isn’t right at him.
Watch his eyes.
He starts not looking at the puck and it is just over.
There’s such a profound difference it is absurd.
Absolutely awful way to lose a game.
If Ekholms skating he is playing game 2. To bad Pickards not ready
Wow, Oilers waaaay too comfortable with their game in the 3rd period.
Another great game for Skinner. Goal against every 5 shots.
At least they’re still pressuring Dallas, and aren’t giving up. Many teams would have imploded from what is transpiring. They can regroup for the next game.
Well. I fault Stu on that one…
edit, maybe not. If Seguin got that …
That was a fluke or a skilled play by Seguin. Didn’t help that Draisatl gave up on his check on Seguin, which sucks because I thought Draisatl had a great game.
He was significantly responsible for 2 even strength goals against
I agree completely, but I saw his game more as good Draisatl attempting to do a little too much or be a little too fancy as opposed to bad Draisaitl who just gives away pucks with no look passes, forced passes, has no giddy-up, and is generally sucky.
It will be a real shame if they lose. They have been good to great 5v5.
Partly true
Frederic has not shown anything to make you want to resign him. Unless it’s for very little.
My comment for the past two weeks. Get Arvi back in
Jeff Skinner should be in. Coach likely won’t play him.
He’s too slow for this team. I don’t see the shine
And he’s already whiffed several shots that Arvidsson, Ryan, Skinner, Savoie and possibly others likely finish.
What a change… 3PP GAs. Good gord. They’re getting eaten alive by the fwd chasing the puck around out of position
None of the powerplay goals have been good plays. One was a decent shot.
Give up 3 on the PK then don’t get a single shot on the PP. Gonna be tough to recover from that.
5on5 this team can compete or beat any team but our special teams need to get it figured out.
Walman had a good look in the slot at the end. McD seems singularly focused on finding play number 1
Lol McDavid
Perfect good job by Bouch. Have to sell it. So far throwing your hands up twice and tossing your head back has gotten calls.
The PP will be another waste of time passing it around the perimeter
PP1 needs to ride pine
Well we could certainly use a goal on this PP. Special teams, yikes.
Looks like the refs don’t mind deciding games when the other team has a great PP
Zebras with the win!