This series is not over, but the Oilers are the first team in the final to reach the brink of heartbreak. How this veteran team reacts to it will be the key to Game 6. I have Edmonton as a strong contender for the win in three of the six games, not at all a contender in a fourth, and in the battle but unable to deliver offensively last night. The team has two wins. The hockey Gods don’t owe the Oilers a victory in Game 6, but this has always felt like a seven game final. I have some things to discuss. Let’s go.
Q AND A
Where are the numbers? NST isn’t working for me, I’ll try to get in later and post them here.
What is wrong with the Oilers? This is a war. Every game is a battle. The series has turned into a ‘call and response’ classic. It’s going to be famous forever. I’d say it’s one of the best ‘call and response’ series ever. The musical equivalent would be something like What’d I Say? by Ray Charles.
Why can’t they win? Lots of reasons. Florida is very good and very filthy. We can start there.
You’re a fool. Opponent doesn’t matter! Oh, okay. Well, I’ll be over here giving the Panthers credit for finding a way to use the Fred Shero model in the 2020’s. Florida is going to take four penalties a game, but have extended the number of fouls delivered to an outrageous amount because they know the officials are managing the game. You can ignore the strategy, but it’s working.
The Oilers are tentative! All the hits and slashes add up in a series. If you go back to the first game we saw Edmonton with crisp passes and forwards coming deep for outlets. Now, the Oilers defenseman peeks from behind the net and fires the puck down the ice for a high risk tip that most often results in an icing. If you want a song to reflect the defense’s attitude about outlet passes, try Dylan’s “No Time To Think.” They have time but the hits and slashes have taken their toll.
Where is McDavid in this series? Scored a fabulous goal last night, he is 1-6-7 in the final, 1-3-4 at even strength. McDavid is a fantastic talent, he is facing strong checking. I don’t think he should be singled out. I do think he’s going to go supernova soon, but “soon” might be October of next season. Regression can slumber in a Lashburn ditch for ages, you know.
What’s the problem, then? Offensively? The top two scorers in the final are Leon Draisaitl (4-4-8 in five games) and McDavid (1-6-7 in five). After that, the next five players are Panthers, followed by two Edmonton defenders (Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm). Corey Perry (3-1-4) has had some success in the final, but we’re waiting on several other wingers to post offense.
The defense is scoring well. It is one of the strong stories for Edmonton against Florida. Four of the top five scoring defensemen are Oilers: Evan Bouchard is No. 1 (1-5-6), Mattias Ekholm (1-4-5) is second, Darnell Nurse and Jake Walman (1-2-3) are tied for fourth.
Is all hope lost? Oh hell no. The dice have no memory. So, the time between Game 5 and Game 6 will be filled with folks theorizing about what went wrong and who to blame, and we’ll see comments like ‘they’re not even trying’ which is of course nonsense. However, as mentioned above, this is a heavyweight bout and there’s no tomorrow. This version of the Oilers talked about the pain of losing in Game 7 last year, I suspect that will be inspiration.
And if they don’t win? Then the Panthers were the better team. Some may decide to die on the ‘referees didn’t call the game fairly’ hill but we all know that doesn’t get entered into the Guide & Record Book and it does not get hammered on to the Stanley Cup alongside the winner’s names.
What should Kris Knoblauch do for Game 6? Dress his best players, try to get this team using the enormous skill via outlet passes and winning battles along the wall. I don’t believe for an instant this series is over. I picked the Oilers in seven, with McDavid scoring in the third overtime. Giving up now is like walking out on Shawshank during the scenes Red was asking to pee while working at the grocery store. This is a grand SCF, stay tuned and don’t give up hope. Happy Father’s Day! Enjoy the sun and enjoy your family.
New for The Athletic: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ defensive deployment reflects performance, injury
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6425799/2025/06/15/edmonton-oilers-stats-stanley-cup-defence/
— Fans need to be realistic. Especially on a site that espouses math
— By all accounts this series ought to be over. That was mathematically a 1-100 chance to win game 4. Florida knew they stepped off the pedal plus scoring effects. This series should be over according to math. Full. Stop.
— none of our players suck. Tactics don’t suck. We are up against a well coached championship team that is better than they were last year.
— Just bring it but we’re are playing against master class coached team that is owning us and neutralizing the best players in the league.
— So far they are better than us and we are extremely lucky there is a game 6. Who’s kidding who.
— anyone who doesn’t agree that it was. 1-100 chance to win game 4 doesn’t understand math or hockey. I mean yeah great we won for sure
— we are definitely not the better team that has been robber by goaltending or refs.
— We are lucky there is a game 6. Just fng won baby
Where they lucky? Sure, I guess, but that win was not all Florida stepping off the gas and score effects.
That game was tied up with over 5 minutes left in the 2nd period and there was luck involved in Florida tying it up.
— there isn’t one commentator or data point that doesn’t recognize that Florida stepped off the gas and thought the game was over
— Moreover statistics and math know that it was a 1-100 chance
— it’s great to be a fan amd great that we have McDrai but your kidding yourself with blind faith if you believe that we aren’t exactly where we deserve to be. That wasn’t appreciated enough an incredible fluke comeback because we have some awesome players that do what few can.
— I want them to win as much as anyone. I guess though I don’t have faith blinders on when I look at the team. I guess that’s just me ?
— But this is a fan blog and I respect that
LFGOILERS!!!
Can you explain the 99% favouring the Panthers?
Having watched an all time great player and team win 4 Cups, then another, and having watched this series with another player of that caliber I can’t agree
The Oilers have not played the way they need to to win. Who knows why, but they are facing a basic strategy that is no new thing. For every tactic there is a counter, they aren’t countering it. Others couldn’t either, same reason – not good enough system response and play. Perhaps the Canes’ roster or coaches weren’t up to it, they don’t translate to playoffs well
It may be the players, coaching asks we don’t know. I think it’s mostly coaching for the Oilers. Two rookies running F and D and getting schooled. Two rookie head coaches in a row trying to manage a top 5 all time player at this point and he’s flailing. But they have the advantage with top end talent and it hasn’t born fruit. Dirty checkers like Slasha with few goals and guys shooting 25% aren’t dominating they’re poaching. The losses aren’t on the Panthers as much as the Oilers
It’s completely uncertain if they’ll do what they need to, but they certainly can
— I mean we will see : I’m totally in the camp that it’s not the oilers not playing to their capacity rather Florida just gaming them.
— Fns are kidding themselves if they they think that 2-3 is anything other that the best case scenario based on how the teams have played that last 5 games IMO.
— winning game 4 was a masterclass in coaching and adjustments plus just massive luck. It was so improbable that they came back. Plus gave false sense of confidence of who has been best team. They weren’t even at 2-2 IMO
— KK on the fly made so many adjustments. That wasn’t appreciated enough. Nor was it what recognize the massive luck. That’s because the Oil has crazy elite talent.
— Most just assumed that they would win game 5 because they came back mathematically 1-100 in game 4 while ignoring the red flags IMO.
— the math/ statistics don’t support any other conclusion. Arguably lucky there is a game 6.
LFGOILERS!!!
According to math?
Show your work.
—- come on. There isn’t any math or data point to support any other conclusion. Be happy there is a game 6
– Sure be a fan. 1-100 to win game 4. Blown out of 2 other games. Scored a goal in last minute of one game and won in overtime and had the same thing happen in another
— Just be real. Look at the data that is costed here. Dig a little deeper. Read anything that isn’t from Oil Nation.
— not once have we played a game like in the last three rounds where from beginning to end we have been the best team in the imposing our will. Coming from behind in games in Cup isn’t how teams win Cup generally.
— We all want to win. We just haven’t been as good. Florida better in a tight series. Not really a debate except fan bias. IMO (and media pundits outside of Edmonton)
LFGOILERS
I mean, you keep quoting “Math” as showing why it’s been a “1-100” chance of winning. Math knows it. If you don’t see it you don’t know math. You do know that these are not mathematical arguments right?
I thought they were playing scared to lose and not to win.
That shouldn’t be the case, and better not be. They are too experienced and were here last year.
Given the average age of the roster the lack of speed/effort was clearly evident last night. They were not supposed to get past the kings and yet they took us on a wild ride and are 2 wins away from a cup. There are no guarantees. Not this year nor the next nor the year after. I just wish we get one cup with the glimmer twins. There are way too many variables that determine the cup winner each year. May be someday chips will fall our way and we will win.
That was the most disappointing home game since the Steve Smith own goal game. At least the 1986 game was exciting this game was a dud it played out like a January regular season boring game. These guys need to look in the mirror and not give up in game six. If the going gets tough the tough get going.
Last game and game three are why I give the edge to the Panthers, whatever the refs have been up to. I’ll take officiating – and injuries, obviously – as a partial excuse for last year’s squad, all new to the experience, but this year’s team *shouldn’t* be overawed by any of the stakes, the opponent, or the sudden lack of whistles. The Oilers, TODAY, banged up as they are, remain good enough to overcome ALL of that. Game 5, they simply did not.
I won’t be able to stomach Tkachuk-Marchand-Bennett parading around with the Cup if they blow us out again at least I’ll be long gone for a walk by then. It’s tough investing your emotions 2 years running and coming up short. I really thought they would come out like they were shot out of a cannon instead Florida trapped them to sleep.
Getting trapped is a choice, not an inevitable outcome. Especially for team with what they have
Comparing the rosters with florida how are the oilers better? We just have the best one two punch. There is a big drop after that. I think oilers will take a swing at swayman next year if he is available. And may be insert some young guns into the lineup so come playoff time they are ready. But oilers are simply overwhelmed. Even the magic of connor and leon can not cover for the shortfall at other positions. Panthers are just too good, and FILTHY.
Swaymans cap hit is $8.25 million.
Not a chance.
Not a chance…. is that the same “not a chance” that Draisaitl was going to be better than Colbourne?
Looking forward to your in-depth cap analysis.
I tend to not create an analysis if I’m not knowledgeable enough to speak on the matter.
You should try doing the same.
I would not endorse this, I’d keep running Skinner and Pickard, but Skinner/Kane plus picks and prospects for Swayman is cap neutral or close enough. I’m not suggesting Boston wants that deal but it actually wouldn’t be that hard to make room. I also suspect RV and Henrique are moved to a destination of choice for basically nothing or less than nothing.
Theoretically anything is possible but the Oilers lack the picks or prospects to pull that off.
If Swayman was on the market I would imagine the Bruins would want a first round pick and would have zero interest in Kane.
Do you actually think Swayman has a lot of value? There’s a lot of risk in that contract in a league that increasingly recognizes that goalies are voodoo. There are a few you commit too (Helly, Vasi, etc) but mostly it’s catching lightning in a bottle. If I was GM I wouldn’t pay much for Swayman. Skinner and a cap dump. His value may well be much higher but I wouldn’t pay it.
David Pagnotta: Penguins are looking to sell off pieces, entertaining offers on Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust; the Kings have been talking with them – The Fourth Period
Hopefully LA trades away more youth for poor talent, ala PLD.
Really the difference is systems and coaching. The players, or the top players, get too cute, and that isn’t a rare thing for high skill players
But the coaches seem to get too cute as well. The PK went from GOAT to goat, why? I have heard many formers say the PP can be learned, defense can be learned, it’s the Connor pass to Leon that game that can’t be learned
For whatever reason the players cannot execute the system in place, against a strong opponent. The net front and slot are regularly open, and the Panthers have noticed. On PK the weak side has been exploited. The Oilers are not exploiting what the Panthers leave
The Panthers play a straight ahead high energy game . The Panthers are playing their system well and know how to frustrate the Oiler’s best. The Oilers are struggling to play their game
Maurice started coaching in 1984, KK in 2010. In the NHL Maurice 2006, KK 2023. There are always ups and downs, Maurice walked on the Jets mid season
The deal is to me when you have enough horses, how does it go? Can you balance the thoroughbreds with the heavy horses? Right now that ball is in Maurice’s court, or he has the puck in the O zone
As I said earlier, the Oilers are unusual, a unicorn team. Can they find a level that gets them over? Can the coaches find another level and Sather this thing? Can they adjust the PK because it has to happen?
The Oilers have been outplayed significantly in this series, and it is only 3-2. With the Oilers, it isn’t over till it’s over.
I hate loading up McDavid and Draisaitl. Against Florida, it takes Draisaitl out of the game. I think one has to play McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines most of the time to have a chance.
Ekholm blundered on the first two goals against, but there was a lot of blame to go around.
The Panthers trapped a clueless Bouchard at the offensive blueline on the 3rd goal against for the 3rd time in this series with Marchand for the 3rd time. Trying to pressure and sneak behind a Bouchard insensitive to danger at the offensive blueline seems to be part of the tactical plan. (And for the 3rd time Bouchard makes no effort to chase.)
Bouchard also got lost behind the net on the 4th goal by Reinhart. (Lots of blame to go around on that goal).
I think the first and 3rd goals against are a set play where Lundell intentionally loses the draw to Draisaitl, and Marchand “false starts” the drop of the puck.
I’d start Skinner in goal. I lean Stecher over Klingberg, but I don’t think that choice is material. I’d keep Podkolzin stapled to Draisaitl, and I think one has to be bold and play Kane with McDavid and RNH. I have no strong opinions on which forward should sit. Kapenen has the best toolkit, so I probably reinsert him. For who?
I thought the Oilers tried hard in game 5 with a bad plan and a deployment mistake to play McDavid and Draisaitl together way too early.
Agree Kane with 97 is a must for game six.
I remove Frederic for Kapanen. Can’t hit what you can’t catch, evidently.
This is the analysis on a goal where:
1) Firstly, Walman fans on the cross-blue pass allowing the puck to be tipped out.
2) Its a ONE ON THREE
3) Walman gets absolutely walked
4) Perry gets out-battled by Marchand to finish the play
You mention Bouchard on that goal? Wow
excellent post
Time leading in Stanley Cup Final through 5 games.
Florida – 200:25 mins.
Edm – 33:51 mins.
That’s a problem.
Try to find the Hart nominee..
https://x.com/MikeBartner/status/1934077429024186476
OILERS PLEASE CHANNEL SOME LIMB BISKET MY WAY.
https://youtu.be/Dn8vzTsnPps?si=VeH50A1v1q7uaeOr
K.K needs to quit pressing with McDavid and Leon. Roll four lines and six D-men get everyone involved. Leon and McDavid look exhausted give other players opportunities with minutes and situations.
Other players have been giving all the opportunity they could dream of, the coach is throwing everyone of the boards hoping anyone can provide anything offensively.
Good grief.
The Coach is force feeding Leon and Connor early to grab the lead, it’s not working. Give Florida a heavy dose of Kane-Frederic-Podkolzin-Kappy and anyone else that can throw a body check. The Panthers have dictated the flow by frustrating Connor-Leon on the same line and the double shifting way too early in the game.
Yep, and Paul Mo just grins
Series has been strange in so many ways.
Marchand is appearing to be the difference maker, who would have ever thought that?
Old Man Perry vs The Stainless Steel Rat.
I’ve read those books.
Arthur Staple: Rangers and Mika Zibanejad’s camp may have already decided that “moving on would be best” – The Athletic
Looks like the Rangers are going to complete the demolition.
NMCs are meaningless. Make things uncomfortable enough, and a player will waive them.
Panarin may be next.
Not according to some loud voices around here.
I guess it matter if you’re worried about besties and wives.
One can say they are meaningless but they are objectively not.
No blaming the refs for game five. Not a chance. And ultimately there should be no pointing at the zebras when a champion is crowned. This series has been as tight a contest as any I’ve seen, with the edge going to the Panthers. Full stop.
Now. What are McDavid’s Oilers going to do about it?
With the Panthers doing quite the job locking down McDavid and his line, does it make sense to load up a Drai line and what would that look like?
RNH-Drai-Podz?
Podz has been the most effective winger in this series after Perry. They need to play him more.
The Oilers so badly need a RW who can put the puck in the net.
Arvi, this was supposed to be you!
They could have really used Holloway.
unlikely, not only is he LW, but he was likely done for the season with his injury.
LT, looking forward to your line and pairing numbers. Curious about what they say to you.
Last night the Oil really had no rhythm and no rhyme And had a hard time getting through the Neutral zone.
interference is not getting called and when it is, its to even out the penalties . Not that it matters because our PP is listless. This team needs a different PP look a pp1 unit. Picks was ok but not brilliant and idk why Ekholm-Nurse is a thing
i think LT is right. Too many cross checks. The Panthers NZ system is crushing their spirit too. The coaching staff needs to solve it
They really need to score first in these next two! McDavid was so close in the first 10 mins.
For Crosby’s first cup they got smoked 5-0, going down 3-2 in the series, only to come back and win. I won’t count this team out until it’s over.
Crosby’s Pens lost game 5 on the road that year. Big difference IMO.
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Klinberg
It makes such obvious sense to me given:
1) results of Kulak/Bouch in these playoffs
2) results of Nurse/Walman in the regular season
3) Klingberg being a better player than Stecher with a higher upside and recent run of success
4) Ekholm clearly not being near 100%
All pairings can handle legit minutes and responsibility – deploy based on who is going that night.
Time leading in Stanley Cup Final
Florida Panthers – 200:25
Edmonton Oilers – 33:51
The Oilers should consider themselves very lucky this Cup run isn’t already over, can they somehow turn the tide? I can’t see it but stranger things have happened…but not many.
This
It is easy to blame the refs but when rewarded with 3 early op’s the Oilers barely managed a quality shot. The Panthers have studied the Oilers PP and are extremely aggressive forcing the Oilers to react faster than desired. Also our PP is becoming quite stagnant and predictable.. Leon and Bouch bomb… everyone including goalie Bob is aware and waiting for those shots. Florida seems to always have an open winger ready for a Grade A shot on their PP. Special teams has really tilted the series in Floridas favour.
To this point, I’d like them to make a change in special teams coach in the off season. It’s time to get a fresh voice w fresh ideas
Gultzen is getting a head coaching job so that will happen
Can Dallas hire Gultzan now, so that we can airlift a new PP coach in for game 6 and 7? The PP has been mediocre for over a year now dating back to last season’s Finals.
We hope
Agreed, the PP needs a fresh set of eyes. It’s been too “ordinary” for too long.
That was a rough one. Full credit to the Panthers, it was a clinic. That said, the battle level just wasn’t there for most of the Oilers. KK has made solid adjustments all year, but keeping Stecher in and pairing Walman/Ekholm didn’t work. Was blessed to be there, but there was so little for the crowd to latch onto.
The PP absolutely killed momentum. No urgency, PP1 treated it like an all star game….unfortunately for them the Panthers did not.
I think we see Klingberg back if he’s healthy, and I’d sit Janmark for Kapanen. Set the lines and run them, too much mixing IMO. If we go with the nuclear option pretty much need to build 3 solid lines and shorten the bench.
Likely in minority and maybe only one but I’ve detested that power play to the point I turn the channel, even as much as they have scored the last several years, starting back when they had the 5 Lefties (Klefbom was on it at the time). Mark Letestu — 16-17 season — 16 goals (most for him in a season) – 11 were on the PP. Guess where he was situated on the ice and guess what shot he was…..Nuge was probably promised PP1 time when he extended, and Leon is the priority as far as 1 timers — it’s gotten stale …
Force feeding the pass to Leon isn’t working. Nuge is a brilliant passer and maintains possession, I do wonder if having a right handed shooting option might give McDavid another option when he drives at the defence. More than anything they just need to move their feet, I think, and up the urgency.
McDavid needs to be more of a threat to score on the PP. He’s the only 60+ goal scorer on the team, but he fancies himself a pure playmaker.
To be fair, he is a playmaker and a fabulous one at that. But yes, he also needs to be more of a threat to score since he’s also very good at it. And it’s needed with the injuries to Nuge and Hyman.
He hasn’t tried to name bar a goalie once this playoffs. It’s 100% mental … and it’s no coincidence that his fancies and advanced stats have been in decline for the past two years. He needs to start shooting more if he wants those passing lanes to open up.
The problem with Nuge left boards is handedness. Need a bar down righty there
They haven’t taken even one run at the geezer who is currently the main reason we’re not planning a parade this morning.
Add in the fact that they brought back their practice of playing two utterly dogshit games when it matters most.
Those two things make a pretty big difference.
Not even one 60-minute or close effort yet.
They’d better have 2 left in the tank. That would do it.
— we still haven’t seen an Oil game like they have have pulled out in each o the previous series
— Need an up early goal or two, control the play dictate where the other team can skate to and can’t be allowed to.
— One of those games and one McDrai supernova game: we got this !
— Florida is really good though : tricks some Oil fans into believing the Oil aren’t giving 100%…
The stats on who has played with the lead in this series tell the story.
They are doing to us what we did to Dallas.
Go look at NST and sort by our D.
Nurse sticks out.
The only D with negative goal differential.
3rd highest paid player on the team
9.25 million per year.
I was once the leader ( co-chair with Godot) of the Nurse fan club
If we win, it would almost be – in spite- of him.
He has his moments where the tools shine through. But he is a liability when the pace of the game increases past his ability to process and make decisions, at which point he stops skating and starts handling the puck like a hand grenade.
I’m completely on board with trading him this summer. I don’t think his NMC is a barrier either … there will be a number of players with NMCs that are traded this off season, and lots of teams with cap space that will see Nurse as an upgrade over what they have. Chris Drury has set the precedent for this kind of move.
Hey Ken it’s Stan…sorry to hear Gavrikov signed in….
Exactly – Holland is the target. Nurse and Janmark for Spence, Moore and Edmundson.
Yes, I’m aware that this probably helps them with signing Marner, but combined with Nurse, this will make them a far easier opponent in the playoffs.
This is one of the forbidden topics.
Lowetide likes the 10,000 foot view.
From there, this player has been poor across three playoff runs. Although he’s typically fine in the regular season.
First period of game 4 he was absolutely god awful. Second period game 4 he was brilliant.
But from the airplane, i agree. He’s a detriment.
I posted about how Nurse was a liability and an option to sit around the time of Game 1 SCF. “Problem is you develop a track record
The post was deleted. Don’t know if it was because it was collecting trolls or what.
Many, many innocent plays has Darnell turning it into a 5 alarm fire in his own end. Many US pundits have been saying this for some time.
Love the person and he is a great teammate for sure.
But 9.25 for this is a problem
Completely agree…don’t go down the blame the ref stuff narrative.
( universally agreed from *all* teams playoff reffing is hot garbage)
Quite simply, Florida likely is the better team.
I don’t think it is hyperbole to suggest Brad Marchand is the difference.
Marchand is on the 3rd line. I would say that is a deep team.
A bottom 6 player is on the verge of winning the Conn Smythe.
One the best trade deadline acquisitions of all time?
Like vomit in my mouth, sometimes you just have to concede the better team won .
Not sure about “better team” (yet), though I am impressed with this version of the Rats.
100% agree with you on Marchand: this guy is making a huge difference in this series.
And they’re doing this with arguably their best player, Matthew Tkachuk, being an absolute ghost throughout the playoffs (He’s clearly injured). How many other teams in this league could be on the brink of winning a SC with their best player being a non-factor for the entire playoffs?
Tkachuk, as mentioned by analysts last night, is looking much better in the most recent games.
He does have 2 goals and 5 points in the past 3 games.
If one is going to mention Tkachuk being less than 100% then the retort is that Ekholm being 100% would make a massive difference and, of course, I think the series could be completely different if Zack Hyman is playing – I truly think he could make that much of a difference.
Reinhart is also less than 100%
He missed two games in the Carolina series with a leg injury.
The top two skaters in this series are Marchand and Bennett (spits) and it’s not been particularly close. I would not have predicted this before the series.
Bob has been better in goal than our tenders, and though he’s given up a couple of soft goals he’s not had a bad game yet.
The refs reporting to Campbell and reffing his son’s team is a conflict of interest that affects the game whether one wants it to or not.
Somebody posted yesterday that this series could be 5-0 Florida at this moment and this feels right. The Panthers are the better team period, no shame in admitting it. The Oilers would’ve absolutely carved any other team from the East but this Florida team is special.
It has been quite unfortunate timing that the Oilers finally became true contenders right as the Panther’s apparent dynasty was forming. I have no qualms in saying that Paul Maurice is getting 100% of the juice out an extremely well built team. Sure wish we had a fully healthy Hyman and Ekholm, but alas.
I still believe this team can fully surprise us. Their back is up against the wall as it ever could be. Squeak out a game 6 win and have a barn burner game 7 fiasco.
I’ve been thinking the same thing. Whatever happens this series, I can see Oilers v Panthers SCF next year.
Last night was regrettable. I only hope for a 10/10 effort and belief for Game 6 and let the chips fall where they may! It all comes down to having the confidence to make plays and dictate the game instead of vice versa. Play your best players, let them know it’s on them and go make a legacy!
One thing that may be in their heads is they don’t seem to have the “they can’t call them all” armour that any team, especially Florida, seems to benefit from in the playoffs.
11 powerplays for Florida in a single game was a message sent by Wes in Game 3 and it was Wes refereeing last night.
When was the last time anyone saw 11 power plays for one team, let alone in the SCF? Then they see Bennett interfere with Podz (via crosscheck) clear as day without a call, very early, and that sets a tone.
So they are tentative because they’re getting smothered (often by infractions) but also because they are getting called for most things. And because the PK is abysmal, they have reason to fear any penalty called. They see players like Evander “has his own rulebook” Kane get pushed to the 4th line to underline the fear.
It is what it is. I think they need to play their game, penalties be damned. Let Kane be Kane. Etc etc
The PK should have been fixed ages ago, but you aren’t winning if you aren’t playing your hardest, so let the PK chips fall where they may.
Who r the refs for game 6?
Yeah, this series was decided before it started. The sunbelt needs to be successful in order not to lag too far behind the other Major Leagues.
I choose to die on the “It was 8 against five” hill. On the last Drai penalty against, he is going down the ice with the cat’s stick at waist level and being bear hugged all the way. The moment Drai tries to shake him off, the cat flops to the ice like he was just shot on the forehead by John Wick. Instant penalty. Same crap we’ve seen all series long, called against the Oilers. That’s why they are off and tentative. IF the series goes seven it’s because the fix is on. God knows how that game seven goes. My faith in a level playing field is completely non existant.
Quit your whining. You can argue about the clutching, but that was an elbow to the head, clear as day.
No one’s whining. I’m stating facts.
One could see that result coming from the 5min mark of the 1st. For a team to lose every race and battle for loose pucks, on home ice, in game 5 of the SCF… The fat lady is making her way onstage…
Fred out, Kap in. Stretch out Kling in. Pick out Stu in.
we sure miss Zak.
NST is back up.
5v5 Dmen results from last night in order of 5v5 TOI:
Bouchard 17:45 Goals 1-2: xGF% 51.1%
Nurse 17:37 Goals 0-1: xGF% 1.7% (not a typo)
Kulak 15:25 Goals 0-0: xGF% 53.3%
Walman 14:55 Goals 0-2: xGF% 15.4%
Ekholm 14:49 Goals 1-3: xGF%30.0%
Stetcher 13:27 Goals 0-0: xGF% 8.9% (not a typo)
No sir, I don’t like it.
The forecheck is overwhelming for some, not all.
F’s need to come back below the dot in their own zone to help or nothing will change in game 6
Bruce Curlock suggests going:
14-2
25-96
27-36
I’m inclined to agree but may swap 27 and 14 depending on how 14 is playing.
Was saying to some people last night – the F’s were not coming below the dot to help and they were not winning battles on the boards.
The few times they did, the Oilers got some clean breakouts. But it’s not been enough and they’re not going to win if they don’t help out.
Wherever the forwards are positioned for a breakout, the Panthers d are on them, inside their sweaters. They go on halfwall , Panthers d pinch. Sometimes the offside D comes across to double down on the pinch. If they lose the battle it’s a jailbreak, but they don’t lose.
Wingers are up high on purpose, so puck at least exits the zone.
Still, point taken. They tried both breakouts, both failed
Why so difficult? Study it. And if it is so effective use it against them.
Why aren’t Oilers smashing on the forecheck? Because the other Panthers dman runs interference. It’s allowed guys.
Nurse sucks … Bowman needs to convince Holland to take his cap crippling contract back if Gavrikov leaves the Kings. I’d take Edmundson back to get Nurse’s contract off the books.
That’s a major over reaction. Nurse needs to play his game and he is an effective defenceman. He needs make the simple passes Bear used to make versus trying to be Klingberg and make the jailbreak passes as he more often than not causes an icing with them. With that, the forwards need to not try and be half way down the ice when he has the puck, they need to set him up for success as well. Nurse wasn’t scored on at 5v5 last night and is +4 in the playoffs. Nurse was not and has not consistently been an issue for the Oilers in the playoffs this year.
If you’re relying on +/- to defend Nurse then that should tell you how weak the argument is. For two straight Finals in a row, we’ve been talking about how he can’t carry his D pairing … which yes, is the expectation when you are getting paid 9+ million per season.
Walman is better and needs to be retained. Finding someone to take on Nurse’s contract this off season, will give the team more flexibility to build a deeper team.
Doesn’t Bowman need to convince Nurse – who has put down roots in Edmonton and is raising a family in Edmonton (who is buddies with Leon and McDavid and who’s wife was just in Greece for Celeste’s bachelorette last weekend and watching games with Lauren and Celeste in recent days)?
A few well placed Mark Spector hit pieces should take care of that.
Honestly, who gives a damn if he “set down roots”? Do you think that factored into Chris Drury’s ability to punt Trouba and Krieder?
Stop making excuses for multi-million dollar athletes who can’t deliver. Florida is the most cap efficient team in the league. They don’t have bad contracts … that’s why they are deeper and better.
I would trade anyone on this team if it would deliver a Cup .. Connor and Leon included.
I’m not making excuses for anyone or anything.
I’m stating facts.
Darnell Nurse has a full no movement clause and cannot be traded anywhere or even waived without his consent.
Darnell Nurse also has a young family he and his wife are raising in Edmonton. Darnell Nurse plays with, seemingly, some of his best friends on this team and his wife is friends with their wives/partners.
My sole and only point is that, while we don’t know what’s in Nurse’s head, nothing can be done without his consent and, nope, I don’t think a Spector hit piece will have any impact on his feelings.
And my point is when management tells you point blank that we’d prefer you to be somewhere else … management always wins.
Every single advanced stats guru has for years pointed out that Nurse is among the worst contracts in the NHL. Those same advanced stats also show that his performance is borderline 3rd pairing stuff, especially in the playoffs.
He sucks, most of the time. Just a completely awful defenseman that Oilers fans and management have convinced themselves is needed because he’s besties with Connor.
I hope they get McDavid signed before they crater their relationship with McDavid and Drai.
I presume the the coaching staff has reasons other than “besties with Connor” for playing him the most at 5 on 5 among all the available d-men.
“completely awful d-man” – ok.
You don’t think that McDavid knows Nurse is a 9.25 million dollar anchor? That he can’t find solid footing with any partner for more than a few games?
I bet Connor would drive Nurse and his wife and kids to the airport if it would allow the Oilers to be rid of his contract.
I think Connor McDavid and Nurse’s other teammates value Darnell Nurse very much – we know the coaching staff does.
“F’s need to come back below the dot in their own zone to help or nothing will change in game 6”
For me, the big question is why they’re not doing this. It must be coaching — Fs told get in position for the stretch pass — or the Rats D-men getting into the neutral zone faster than Oilers forwards can get back.
This is the way, I’ve suggested the following before they put Stech back in:
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Klingberg
It makes such obvious sense to me given:
1) results of Kulak/Bouch in these playoffs
2) results of Nurse/Walman in the regular season
3) Klingberg being a better player than Stecher with a higher upside and recent run of succes
4) Ekholm clearly not being near 100%
Just as important is the fact we are enjoying what 30 other team’s fans wish they had. I’m trying to soak in every knowing that tomorrow is not promised to the Oilers or me.
Oilers are having trouble scoring because there is absolutely no room to breathe.
Conversely, they’re always seems to be a Florida man open.
Not rocket science. Pick up your man, don’t just puck watch, don’t just wave your stick.
Play a strong game mistake free. There’s absolutely no reason Marchand should have four breakaway goals. Absolutely no reason Bennett should still be getting shots off unchallenged
Ekblad is a tank on the back end, and no one has yet to even challenge him in any meaningful way.
You’re going to have to get dirty.
Wait for chances, be patient, finish, you have to finish
It’s hard to get how they can leave the front of their net and slot so unprotected so often. I agree with Curlock that they are making it pretty easy for the Panthers by making key coverage mistakes at least as much as the Panthers are doing anything special
i said before the series that I don’t think any team can beat the Oilers 4 in 7 if the Oilers are playing at the top of their game. I caveated that with saying the same is probably true if the Panthers.
What we have seen from the very start is that the Panthers are playing in a way that isn’t allowing the Oilers to get anywhere near the top of their game.
The Oilers need to find a way to get to their top level, part of it is coaching a structure/systems.
Thanks LT for your optimism.
Reminder that Crosby’s Pens were blown out in game 5, and won 2 straight.
“You’ve already voted for this comment”
Damn, want to like it again.
Connor and Leo are going to have to play like Sid in the O zone
This team is so unpredictable we know what we saw last night does not guarantee what comes out the gate on Tuesday. Some are saying they looked gassed, but I don’t think that’s the story. They looked afraid to take a penalty, for fear of being down again.
They need to come to terms with who they are and what makes them great.
So, game 6 hunch: move Kane to line 1, with McDavid. The demotion was a mistake I think, but at least now Kane has only played 13 minutes in each of the last two games. He’ll have the freshest legs amongst all top six forwards, either team. He can get to the net. He can shoot off the rush. He can run through defenders. We need him playing big minutes. And he’ll be highly motivated.
I’m not sure what you do with the rest of the lineup but damn the torpedoes. If this team is going to lose the SCF, I would prefer it be off the heavy hand of the officials, knowing we went through a wall, not the soft and tepid display we saw last night. At least then, if you go down a few off a bad PK, you know you will get make-up calls and you have brought your adrenaline levels along with fast, energetic boots. Gotta be ready when it’s there for you.
This would translate much better into a comeback compared to the safe, overthinking plays with the puck we saw last night. Balls to the wall, as it were.
Let’s at least test the tinfoil hat theory: Does the NHL just want 7 games? Elbows up, literally.
Well said. If they are going to lose at least lose playing your best game. That was far from it
Definitely agree Kane needs to be moved up beside Connor for this last one. Because it might have to be his last one.
And it needs to be made clear that Bennett and/or Bob have to have their worst games of the series because of you. And only you.
There are no more free rides on this team…we may not even get another ride! It is your job this game to ensure that Bob/Bennett/Tkachuk all do not factor into a win. And make them pay for touching the puck everytime. No excuses.
You haven’t played all year and you still didn’t bother to play at 150% for these last 5 games straight? Your game is built for this exact moment…and you are failing everyone miserably.
So give him all the 1st line minutes because his stat line better look like: 1 goal / 1 assist / 1 fight / 0 penalties / 16 hits / 3 penalties drawn / Bob fallen on 4 times.
Otherwise, thank you for your years….goodbye.
Not the game I expected this team to produce on the ice in Game 5 of the SCF. We’ll see what they’re made of come Tuesday and with some puck luck and bounces perhaps again on Friday. You’re right LT, it’s not over, just would’ve been better to have the home win. Maybe the coach is onto something and can play the goalie for 15 minutes a period, it sure seemed to wake up the team. Wish they played with that intensity after the first GA.
The Oilers are an unusual team. Their best players are unusual. Their goalies are unusual. Their coaches are unusual
They have LT’s lowest floor and highest ceiling. They came back from 3 games down. They came back from 3 goals down. Their captain says they always do things the hard way
I want to view them through the lense of a normal hockey team. But they aren’t. I want them to hit all the notes and bring in the performance they are capable of, but they choose to riff and sometimes it’s cacophony
So it’s sit back and hope it comes together for two games. Man it’s hard being an Oilers fan, to be so close after so much, with Connor and all that they have now, and no clear signals from them
Do what you have to to reach your dream fellas
I am pretending they came valiantly short in a game 4 near-comeback and won last night in a mature and controlled fashion. They remain down 3-2 but my head doesn’t feel like popping off.
Edmonton just needs two Tikkanens: one to cover Marchand and the other to cover Bennett 🙂
And a third one for luck
Rob Brown said it well post-game last night. Stuart Skinner has a chance to be a hero in this town.
It’s a no-brainer he starts in Tuesday (at least to me) and, with the way the Panthers are playing, we need him to be very good to great in two games in order to win.
I know with certainty that Skinner can play at the level needed for two games and, well, I’m choosing to be confident he’ll indeed do just that.
Go Skinner!
Agreed
Hard to see him not starting 6
Stu coming in and outplaying Bob is the only juice left for this roster. That and playing the pants off Bouchard, and shortening the D corps down to 5 like they did in game 4.
I don’t think the forwards have much left to offer. Their top three lines are better in aggregate than our top three lines. Their key moving forward is to play defence like their lives depend on it.
Their fourth line is exactly what a fourth line should be as well.
Agreed. Skinner starts the next 2 games!
Some interesting writing this morning LT. This thought catches my interest the most.
If this is what you believe, and based on what we witnessed last night, what makes you think things will change for the Oilers in Games 6 and 7? What needs to change other than your comment about dressing their best line-up (whatever that means)?
They need to remember that they are the better team here and can win this. To go with LT’s metaphor they are going to need to crawl through that pipe. Total focus. And they can do it.
If the Oilers repeat the game we saw last night, the chances of losing are high. Whatever they want to accomplish with those headman passes from behind the net are not succeeding. Since I assume the Oilers want to win, I expect to see a different approach.
As for the best line up, I think we can make the case that Kasperi Kapanen should play in Game 6. I’m not sure Calvin Pickard loses the net, but the coach will have a good idea about who to play. At this point in the series/season, people get angry at players and coaches for various reasons, but if your favourite player isn’t in the lineup, he might be hurt.
That’s why I said “best lineup” as I do not know who is injured.
They focused so much on cycling the last few seasons, but seem hesitant to dump and chase against the Panthers which is the only way to get past how the Panthers play if you get to the neutral zone with control
They need to move the puck more quickly and looking for passes that aren’t really there slows them down and turns the puck over
I agree that they need to dress their best line-up, but the Oilers didn’t lose because of Kap and Klingberg missing from the line-up. They are losing because they aren’t rising to the challenge and their systems are not working. Adjust the bloody systems coach!
Coach needs to dig out the film from Game 1 and play (review) it repeatedly.
They also played this team 7 times in a row last year and now seem surprised by how their opponent is playing.
Happy Father’s Day you dads
Who downvotes an appreciation post to fathers?
Anything is possible.
Abuse victims?
Exwives? Jilted single moms?
They may not hammer it on the cup but it doesn’t make it any less true.
They also jade and even lose fans because of it. Respect was lost a long time ago.
The NHL has lost me. Can’t jump off this moving train, but once this season pulls into the station, I will disembark for good.
I think I’m with you. I really was hoping to see 97 lift the cup before I left.
I watched the Boys on the Bus do their thang back in the day and had hoped to postpone this decision until 97 & 29 were no longer Oilers so as not to deprive myself of watching two more incredible players, but the NHL won’t allow them (along with all the other most talented players in the league) to perform to their utmost anyway, so why bother?
I realize it has always been this way. The NHL hasn’t changed over the years and, like Anonymous, I don’t expect that they will. The only change that has occurred is in me and what I am willing to spend my time and energy on. The NHL is no longer on that list….
I will stick to reading this blog but I’m not watching or contributing a dollar to the NHL ever again.
Maybe things will change one day but I doubt it.
As I get older, it is my emotional currency/energy that is far more valuable to me and that is what I will withhold from them after this season. I stopped spending actual dolla bills on NHL product close to three decades ago….
Yeah, it’s not fun anymore. The sportsnet streaming package which expires on the 21st for me will be my last dollar spent.
For me, it’s a bunch of things, foremost the culture of the game has been undermined by sports betting completely. Hard to find a broadcaster willing to go there because the majority, from traditional to new media, is being supported by betting houses.
I’m just tired of being told it’s raining by the same folks pissing on me.
I watch on TV and read this blog. Don’t spend 1 cent.