Time for some true confessions. Back in 2015, I believed (and wrote) that Peter Chiarelli was a solid hire, and that he could lead the Oilers to a Stanley Cup. The following year, Chiarelli signed Milan Lucic and I wrote the item above. Both endorsements failed miserably. I’ll own that, and confess to some hesitation in recommending Trent Frederic as a “close to $4 million times eight years” option.
I do like this player. He plays with a rugged edge, he is responsible and he can post offense as a complementary player that does not include a linemate who can push the river. Here’s a look at the last four seasons, all with Boston:
All numbers via Natural Stat Trick, and five-on-five only minutes
Frederic’s offense was solid until 2024-25, when the entire team suffered through a slump. He is not an offensive driver, so when Charlie Coyle (his most common center last season) slumps badly, the entire line suffers a downbeat. Frederic’s goal share last season was in the ditch, but his expected goal share was 50 percent. He’s a solid player as an outscorer, even as (as you can see) he played on a team that exceeded the expected during the good old days. I’m not going to spend the summer talking him up as I did with Chiarelli (I muted my Lucic verbal in 2016 summer because Edmonton dealt Taylor Hall) but will say that if Frederic signs here (looks like it) I can see the appeal.
Many of you have asked about Bruce McCurdy’s celebration of life. It is tomorrow. I’m including Kevin McCurdy’s tweet with details below. He was a kind and wonderful man, a dear friend and an enormous loss to this community.
You either have the puck or you are retrieving the puck – was a simple Daryl Sutter slogan from the LAK days. That is kinda how the Panthers played.
Do we have enough of these guys on our team? This simple game can be played by Trevor Lewis, AJ Greer ect. we need a few value contracts that want the puck more than. The other guy.
So what are the odds that in two decades we learn about the great Panthers doping scandal? Oh look Ekblad playing the best hockey of his career after being caught doping. Nothing to see here folks.
As much as one hopes that this needs to looked into I highly highly doubt bettman will walk down this path. Hockey is barely growing in sunbelt inspite if all the championships. I expect the trend to continue. I will not blame CMD to sign a short term deal here and then bail out to a US market needs of “growing”. I think his contract will be a tell. Players know more about all this. So if he knows something that we dont he will pull the trigger. Lets wait and see. If he signs long term here we can safely assume there is no scandal and each team is treated the same.
Connor might decide if he can’t beat them, might as well move to Florida and be a Panther. YIKES!!!
Just have Evander Kane dope up and I’m sure the they will crack down on it across the league.
Remember when the first player signed was always Devin Shore?
I would prefer the last few roste spots are saved for players that shake free from other clubs or pop free somewhere. Or role players.
Do the Oilers fully recognize what they need? I’m not sure.
Looking backwards, after 2024 loss they were not recognizing the shortcomings. It seems like they felt if they just had a few more goal , then that is the difference and they signed goal scorers. It was a mistake that could be seen at the time.
Could Matt Savoie be the offensive driver on a 3rd line centred by Frederic, with Podz on the left?
Speed, size, and skill
Savoie is not a driver (from watching him play this past year) – he is a complimentary give and go type skill winger that should thrive with a smart skilled center (like Leon).
He does have attributes that can fit on a third line – he is a tenacious forechecker, 2-way responsibility, energy, etc. but I wouldn’t expect him to drive offence on a third line.
I get that the question was initially about signing Frederic, but the coach was sitting right there in yesterday’s presser yet despite all of the talk about what position Frederic would play going forward, none of that was directed or commented on by the guy who 100% decides that sort of thing.
They’re apparently working on extensions for Brown and Perry?
I get Perry. Still wouldn’t do it, but I get it.
This Connor Brown obsession/delusion/coach crutch thing just has to end. Wasting that cap hit on someone who both has a very low ceiling and is clearly overvalued by the coach is a massive problem.
Perry had an amazing season, but I also think the over-valued comment fits there. He just is not a 5v5 solution, and he’s 40. I’d thank him for his efforts and let him walk unless he wants to sign near minimum.
When Brown is on he is solid. A different PK setup and a bottom 6 role would be fine, but I think they will overpay. These are not the first deals you do.
I get Brown he’s still only 31. While this Corey Perry obsession/ delusion/ coach crutch thing is what I wonder about. Wasting that cap hit on a 40-year-old because he wants another cup before he retires when the team seriously needs to inject more youth into the lineup.
Corey Perry was the most productive forward in the bottom 6 all season.
Is it sustainable? Who knows?
Perry was the one who got everyone fired up in Game 4. He’s a gamer
Let’s bring back the same crew
thats gonna get Connor to resign
No, the GM said straight up there are going to be changes – said he’s focusing most on forwards and tending.
There is quite a bit of speculation he’s looking to move Arvidsson and Kane for cap flexibility in that regard.
That’s not what I said – no doubt the forward mix needs to change. But why punt one of our best wingers from last season who probably won’t cost much and won’t need to sign for more than one year at time? Because you don’t like his age? I care more about his performance.
St. Albert astronomer, hockey columnist remembered
I don’t like the sounds of that. Who is Frederic going to play with that’s an offensive driver, especially if he is 3C. Potential wingers could be Podz and CBrown, neither are offensive drivers.
Maybe Frederic is 3LW or 3RW, but again where is an offensive driver for that line. It’s not Henrique anymore.
At 4M on the 3rd line doesn’t Frederic need to be the driver?
Maybe Bowman sees a healthy Frederic as a winger for Drai or McDavid.
If they sign him to that, then I’d agree he will get top 6 time or 3C. Whatever it is, set the lines and leave them (with 97/29 apart at all times, unless chasing late). I really want the Oilers to work on stable lines next season. The Panthers didn’t change their lineup and the benefits are clear.
Podz-Frederic-Brown would be a low event line, they would need to demonstrate shut down ability to be able to play enough to warrant the contracts, as I don’t see a lot of offense.
Connor & Leon need better than a healthy Trent Frederic on either of their wings. If Henrique gets moved, Nuge might be 3c and he’s an even better center than Charlie Coyle.
97 made comments the other day along the lines of wanting to sign if he can see a path to winning. I wonder if he sees the proposed overpayment to Frederic as running counter to this….or maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part that he is telling his agent to tell Bowman not to do anything stupid.
I think two straight Stanley Cup Finals, his owner spending on everything possible, his managers trading picks and prospects for help now, etc., etc. all leads to showing this organization intends on nothing but winning and has been one of the most winningest franchises over the last number of seasons.
I think his comments were just words to get through the questions he knew was coming and there all but zero chance he isn’t signing for at least 4-5 years in the coming month or so.
Bruce you are dearly missed 😢. Miss those stories and insight he shared to all.
8 years @ $4M for Frederic? Gross.
I got looking at this goalie list last night:
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-fantasy-hockey-top-25-goaltender-rankings-pools-282860450
Who here (on the list) is; under 30, under contract, and is a clear upgrade to our current tender? I might add under $6M, but definitely under $8M. On quick browse, I would suggest the first ten names are off the list, which leaves names such as (GP/W/SO/GAA/SV%) Binnington (56/28/3/2.69/.900), Swayman (58/22/4/3.11/.892), and Demko (23/10/1/2.90/.889) to name a few.
Oh… and I’m not suggesting these above names are an upgrade either…
Jake Allens .908 career sv% enters the chat
I like both Leaf goalies. Either/Or. Stolarz is 31 & Woll is 26.
Joseph Woll $3.67M for the next three seasons & Anthony Stolarz $2.50M will be UFA after next season.
I’d go with a Stolarz/ Skinner tandem.
It’s incredible when you remember that we had Stolarz right
And they wouldn’t give him a chance to play. Big mistake.
I like Thatcher Demko as a massive buy low if the Nucks would deal with the Oilers again.
The risk is clear – he’s just constantly injured and doesn’t play. With that said, the risk is one year and $5MM that’s all that’s left on that contract.
If the worst comes to fruition, well, the starting goalie from the past two seasons is there to take back over 1A – we know that’s good enough to get us to the playoffs (and really even to the finals with a bit of help that can be found mid-season).
Upside is a top 5-10 goalie in the world.
Kane for Demko … both teams assume some risk, but the upside for the Oilers is huge. Don’t underestimate the Oilers medical staff.
Really depends on status of Demko’s knee.
Many of us have been here a very long time—both on this planet and here at this blog. We probably know each other’s quirks in ways that people with whom we interacting in the real world don’t know us.
Woodguy’s an absolute legend and the only poster who I have had the occasion to meet in real life.
I had plans to go for lunch with Lowetide, but Covid hit making it a challenge and I moved far away after few years later.
I’m back in Canada now, but in the “bring cash” province, too far away to attend.
I had never had the occasion to meet Bruce in the real world, but I’ve interacted with him online since 2009. That’s a considerable length of time. He had a measured approach to analysis and way of disagreeing without making things personal in a way that was simply unmatched.
As I imagine you folks know by now, I’m a fairly opinionated guy. Bruce had no qualms with stepping in and challenging my opinions or voicing disagreement. He did it respectfully and with a level of class that was unparalleled.
Over the years, I learned a lot from Bruce. He was the main reason I still read the COH. Bruce set a high bar in teaching us how to interact online,
Here’s to those who are lucky enough to attend in celebrating Bruce’s life!
Your post perfectly summarizes an insight of Bruce that many of us felt.
His hockey history knowledge was like a computer bank.
I’ve listened to Lowetide over the years. At least a couple times a week. depended on my work schedule. I always got a kick out “sun, moon and stars bit” when Bruce would talk about his hobby as he was so passionate about it.
I never personally met Bruce, but from my online interactions and just listening to him, it was no doubt he was a true gentleman
Bruce was one of a kind on this site; his commentary was always balanced and thoughtful. He never tried to ‘win’ an argument, but rather provided perspective without expectation or need for validation. this place was richer for his participation. His presence in the Oilogosphere will be missed.
A lot of us could probably benefit from trying to be a little more like Bruce.
It will make for an interesting/challenging contract negotiation next summer when Podkolzin outplays him.
Podkolzin could be an offer sheet target next summer.
Yes if they both play wing. Maybe that’s why the conversation shifted to Fredrick at center.
I was gutted a while back when Kevin told me the date knowing I would be out of the continent. I really want to be there. With that said, it won’t be the same but I will be able to stream tomorrow night at 9pm and look forward to seeing some of you there.
This is very good information to include in the analysis – thank you.
For me, I would change the word from “solid” to “OK” in the context of signing a player near (or at) prime age for real term (7-8) years and a material cap hit ($3.5MM to $4MM).
He’s had two productive season in the AHL – 17G/31P and 18G/40P – both from the third line mostly and with little PP time. This is just below where Warren Foegele trended in his last couple of years.
Remember this team didn’t want to pay Foegele over $3MM or so for a couple of years and he added a bit more PK (Frederic has killed a little but not much I don’t think). Frederic is more physical and he can play center from accounts. I know his faceoffs suck but that is such a small part of the position – he says he wants to play more center. At the very least that versatility is important.
A main difference here is Foegele signed after scoring 20G and, while he had an up and down playoffs, he produced in the SCF when most others didn’t.
Frederic is coming off an awful season including pre-injury/trade (8G/15P in 53 games – blah).
I look forward to cheering for the guy but, really, his ceiling is probably being value for the rumored contract for a few years – there isn’t much chance he outplays it and I’m just not sure why its necessary.
The cap was tighter when Foegele signed and players of his I’ll got squeezed hard.
Big tough guys that can play are always at a premium.
He wasn’t a big tough guy that could play this season – I mean he has been in the past, for two years of his career but he wasn’t that this season.
History matters but prior season generally matters most – its being 100% discounted in the speculated deal – from what I can see.
I can see Trent Frederic on a third line with Nuge & Matthew Savoie. And I totally expect to see Noah Philp centering the fourth line.
I see Frederic centering that 3rd line.
A couple weeks ago I had visions of Nuge becoming the long term 3C but I think Frederic’s ability to play C is one of the reasons they are willing to risk these contract terms.
I hope Savoie is mostly 2RW this season – that position is is empty as they come, he’s got the pedigree, the skill-set, the skill, the work ethic, etc. Savoie coming in hot in camp and earning looks and running with it would be huge for this team.
Nuge might be a better center than Frederic. But Nuge is also a good winger. I’m in the belief they’ll be looking to upgrade the top six wingers.
Again!
I remember Foegs as a fly-by guy last playoffs. Maybe I’m not giving him credit.
He didn’t have a good playoffs and was healthy scratched for a game or two. He did score a couple of goals in the SCF if I remember correctly.
Bowman had better be right!
The Montgomery Bruins played a very different style of game than the Knoblauch Oilers, and those rosters had a different types of player.
That said, if the Oilers want to beat the Panthers, they likely have to diversify the way they are able play offensively. And one way to get Knoblauch to diversify the offensive approach perhaps is to give him more of a different kind of player.
Hardnosed types that can play.
I’m like LHMF, even Frederic does provide value for the contract, it doesn’t make it a good signing at the time. Winning in this league is more about getting contract value for player than the actual player itself in alot of ways.
As I said in another post – best case scenario is that the player is value for contract for most of the deal – there is almost no chance to outperform it.
It just doesn’t seem necessary to commit $30MM to get his guy signed – coming off a objectively horrid season.
Who are we competing with for this contract? Seems like we’re just outbidding ourselves. Looking like Pierre Engvall but worse.
And yes I realize with some of these contracts moving already July 1 is gonna be a shit show
I do think he could get near $4MM on the open market – maybe not for 7 years (obviously not for 8 years though) but the point is valid, in my opinion.
They never learn. Ference, Lucic, Kassian, K.Russell.
But Holloway at 2.3 and Foegele at 3.5 were too much.
Not sure how Frederic will be a better 3C than Ryan McLeod.
Is there anyone in management that were involved in the signings of those 4? I’m not sure the management that made those mistakes are involved to show any learning.
I don’t agree with the speculated Frederic deal but I think the level of play for the two seasons prior to this could help this team win in the playoffs more that Ryan McLeod did (and I liked his defence, PK, puck transition, etc.).
Ryan McLeod was traded for Matt Savoie who should be in the middle 6/top 6 for the next two seasons on his ELC – that is real real value.
I am hopeful that the Oilers walk away from the apparent 8X3.75 or (heaven forbid 4M). The old “what have you done for me lately” comes to mind. I like the player just fine, but this deal seems all too familiar to me. A fading coke machine with an injury. No reason to go 8 years. If this does not turn out, the club is banging their head again…Mcdavid is too important to let this happen. Are we not past this stage? We wait…
Bruce. You are dearly missed. I will be celebrating your life from afar, but every single day, we all miss you! Thanks for all you did and thanks LT/Kevin and family, for allowing all to celebrate with you.
Dear Bruce,
We all miss you. I’m sure many of us we’ll celebrate your life tomorrow either in person or from a far.