In normal seasons, I would have a top 150 list of eligibles for the 2025 NHL entry draft. This year, I have none. It is a passion of mine, so I have found time each season (from 2010 to 2024) to rank a group of players based on what math tells us. I didn’t get it done this year, as the Oilers Stanley Cup run, married to the fact the team has just three draft picks, made it less of a priority. I wrote about the draft here and here if you’d like to read about Edmonton at the 2025 selection.
I believe this week will be about trading veterans, with Evander Kane the most likely to go based on contract and ability. I wrote about him this morning (here) at The Athletic, and no matter what happens this week, I think keeping Kane and signing Trent Frederic will be a difficult combination.
There is word management is attempting to sign right-wingers Connor Brown and Corey Perry. I’m fine with both, and a depth chart of Hyman-Savoie-Brown-Perry looks good from here. Stan Bowman has to find room for Savoie, or trade him away. Edmonton must add some youth to the roster, and the other key signed top-flight prospect (Sam O’Reilly) is at least a year away.
We said goodbye to Bruce McCurdy yesterday. It was beautiful. Kevin McCurdy ended a terrific celebration with a lovely speech about his Dad. When he was done, there wasn’t a dry eye in the house. What a beautiful tribute. Anna and Kevin worked hard to make that a special day. I know Bruce will be proud of them today.
On the Lowdown today (noon to 2), we’ll have Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and Puck Social at 12:40, and Jason Gregor at 1:20. We’ll talk draft and trades, and maybe we get some breaking news on the show.
New for The Athletic: What should the Edmonton Oilers do with Evander Kane?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6442722/2025/06/23/edmonton-oilers-evander-kane-contract-trade/
From The Lowdown with Lowetide: The Lowdown with Lowetide – June 23rd, 2025 – Hour 1, Jun 23, 2025
For as closely as I follow the NHL entry draft, I feel like a dolt to have to ask this:
It used to be that playoff results only affected the draft order for round 1, and every susbequent round just went by reg season points standings. But it seems now every round is affected. When did that change?
For me, flipping Kane and signing Fredric would feel a lot better if the latter came in near $2MM instead of near $4MM as speculated for some real cap savings.
I understand the market and that $2MM is not realistic for Frederic but, truth be told, his play as an Oilers warrants closer to $1MM and, really, his two top years warrant closer to $3MM.
That’s been the narrative here, but I don’t see it that way. I’ve commented that he’s a unique player and Bowman said the same at his presser. There are only a few guys with his range of attributes, and that means they get more rather than less. He also allows a Kane move without removing that from the team, may or may not happen. Bowman thinks he can play all forward positions
High ankle sprains are hard to play through, Leon had his in playoffs and as it went it diminished him as well. These playoffs TF skating affected:
GF% 58.33 8th for F
xGF% 7th
HDCF% 53.51 7th
HDGF% 75 2nd
Def Zone starts 42 3rd
Off Zone Faceoff% 41.188 12th
Those results aren’t bad given the situation, especially HDGF. He is a very good defensive player and solid positionally which is a big thing that the Oilers need more of. He was shy offensively but I see that as not having his normal jump and agility. It may not work out, and the term is too long if as reported. But that is how Bowman gains cap down the road, more term and less cap hit. That’s what makes Hyman a value contract if he can keep his boots and health at 33
And given he’s 27 it’s not like many UFA signings where the guy is already 29 or 30. I can see 5 good seasons, possibly more, but in 5 years unless the league takes a dive 3.5M will be peanuts. Movement clauses to me for a lot of GMs just means the player can’t be blind sided, Bowman already is said to have gone there with Arvi, it’s better for both parties. We’re used to Holland who didn’t do things like ask a guy to waive, or if he did he didn’t convince the player
His high ankle sprain does not account for Frederic having a terrible production season prior to the trade – 8G/15P in 53 games.
Lets be real here, his entire last season, regular and playoffs, pre and post- injury was a bust and, in isolation gets him a $1MM-$1.5MM deal. Yes, the latter half has real injury mitigation but the season is what it is.
Maybe he has 5 good season but, at the same time, how good are those seasons to be given his history. Yes, he brings other attributes but his production past is what it is and production is what gets forwards paid historically.
I am a user of advanced stats – as useful as publicly available possession based stats. We know that bottom pairing d-man can have great metrics (see Matt Benning as an Oiler) and I think the same can sometimes be said of bottom six forwards – there is context to their possession based stats vis-a-vis quality of competition. Lets be honest, despite the metrics your post, Frederic was highly underwhelming and underperformed expectations in the playoffs – can we agree on that?
Really respected Bruce. Was stuck in the hospital when he passed, and didn’t know until a few weeks ago. Gut punch. What an interesting man, loved every interaction with him. RIP Bruce.
Sort of weird that the official announcement of the Frederic contract hasn’t come out yet (unless it has and I’ve missed it). It sounded like it was a sure thing/imminent when news first leaked out (although that the rumors just might not have been entirely accurate about how close talks were).
I wonder (worry? hope?) if the delay is due to some medical concerns/issues passing a physical.
It would be ironic if the Oilers medical staff saved the Oilers general manager from an ill-advised signing …
Even more weird when you consider that Capwages already has his contract up (since Friday I think) as 3.85 x 8 years.
The original source was out of St Louis. None of the Edmonton reporters seemed to comment on it (that I could see). No doubt something is going on but I am not sure of the accuracy of the original report/rumour
Local Edmonton guys almost never break contracts (Rishaug, Spec, DNB, Spector) – Friedman has also suggested its all but a done deal.
My offseason expectations are the same as Ziggys in the photo. Fully expecting a scrumptious meal, bewildered and flabbergasted when i dont get every crumb of that meal.
The treat would be a 97 resign.
Ruff life.
Zegras to Philly. Interesting.
That should be really interesting … Zegras is not exactly a Philly type of player. That said the price paid was negligible given the talent.
He doesn’t strike me as a Tocchet type player at all.
One cannot be too fussy in this offseason’s centre market. One year left on the contract. Not much risk if he doesn’t fit in.
Could be the interest in Frederic. Zegras’ has been hurt and not productive and makes 5.75M and will get expensive next deal. He was more sheltered than TF with worse PuckIQs. TF said he wants to play C who knows if he can for the Oilers
Lol nope – that’s why this is going to be fun to watch.
Gonna be fun to watch Tocchet react to Zegras trying the Michigan non-stop.
So essentially, Anaheim traded Zegras and Drysdale for Cutter Gauthier, Ryan Poehling and 2025 fourth rounder…
Not sure I would be loving Verbeek’s work if I were a Ducks fan…
Perhaps he would like a reunion with a gently used Adam Henrique??
Pie in the sky moves this off-season:
Of those, the only realistic possibility is LA … if you’re going to sell Nurse on waiving his NMC, a chance to play LD with Doughty on a good LA team who is now run by the GM that signed him to that ludicrous contract, seems like the only (remote) possibility.
If they lose Gavrikov on July 1, then I can see some steam building up behind this idea.
Chicago is an under the radar option … his sister plays for the WNBA team there, and the Hawks, who have oodles of cap space, could really use a minute munching D-man. The lower expectations and the chance to build his brand in a market that has a large black American community, and earn money doing endorsements could be appealing. It’s a quick flight for his parents to come see both him and his sister play.
A couple more options:
Both fanbases seem warm to the idea of adding Nurse if a contract is coming back. Both of these trades balance the defense for Edmonton (L/R) and save money, while the Oilers are giving up the best player.
You could even extend the trade to include goalies: Nurse + Pickard for Severson + Elvis ($1.4M retained) is cap neutral and gives the Oilers a different look. I don’t know how realistic this is though.
Severson is basically a RH version of Nurse … porous defensively, with a reputation for offence that doesn’t match results. He’s got 6 years left on his contract, but the buyout is far more palatable.
If CBJ can’t sign Provorov, then I could see them considering the swap you proposed. Elvis is by all accounts pretty mercurial though … not sure he’d be an upgrade on Pickard.
Not sure Nurse would waive his NMC to go there either.
All good points… I think Severson might be a better RD than Nurse (or Kulak or Walman) though, so the handedness thing would be working in our favour. Also he’s $3M cheaper, although his contract is a year longer. That cap space would be very helpful in the short term.
Another goalie option is Jarry at 50%. I think Pittsburgh is ready to move on, they might be willing to retain to move him without getting much back (a 3rd?).
If it’s a mercurial Columbus goalie you’re after, you’d probably be able to get Tarasov for peanuts and he’s six years younger.
Swayman was .892 this past Season, worse than Skinner. That is his only season close to a true starter and it was a fail.
He does have three good save percentage season – maxed out at 44 games (41 and 37) on a top regular season team.
He’s yet to have success as a starter in the NHL let alone in the playoffs.
Same was true of Ullmark.
Ottawa turned around the direction of their franchise by acquiring him.
Ullmark never had the true starters games played but:
1) He had a MUCH longer track record of year after year after year success including a .938 in 49 games and a vezina
2) He’s never had a bad season like Swayman is coming off of – his lowest in the NHL is a .905
3) He was not signed 1-year in to a max term deal at big money coming off a crap season.
I have been thinking about this year’s loss to the Panthers vs. last year. While we were a better, deeper team this year with an improved defensive core – I think we lost critical puck transporting skill when we lost McLeod & Broberg.
Last year, when the forecheck from Florida became aggressive, McDavid, Broberg or McLeod could all skate the puck out of danger and keep Florida back on their heels. I think we need players in the Middle six who can initiate offense and fast-breaks from our end.
Would be curious what players are out there that could fit the bill?
I know this doesn’t really answer your question, but I think last year’s team was actually better than this one. The 2025 team just played better in the first 3 rounds (after G1 and G2 against LA).
This year’s team was better at 5v5; they steamrolled through the first 3 rounds, whereas the season before, it was a grind.
But his year’s team got let down massively by special teams. The strength of the team at 5v5 was completely neutered by either a flat PP or getting scored on the PK.
Yes, there can be a lot of variance from year to year with respect to special teams results, which is partially attributable to luck. But by eye, the PP was not moving the puck quickly enough and was too predictable, despite having a zone entry machine in McDavid. I thought that McDavid would drop the puck off too quickly after crossing the blue line, instead of holding on to it and drawing defenders to him. Where Leon was going was too predictable … every goalie in the league knows to get across the crease quickly now. Bouch needs to get his shot off faster … and not every shot needs to be a Bouch bomb. All three of RNH, McDavid and Draisaitl would hold the puck too long … passes needed to be quicker.
PK the season before was much better at preventing zone entries … this is where the change in personnel may have had a material impact. McLeod and Foegele were better at pressuring deeper up ice and then recovering … their speed helped to disrupt the other team’s breakouts. This season, Florida was able to enter the Oilers zone at will … due to the slower forwards on the ice, the D-men were backing off and giving up the blue line too easily.
I think there needs to be a new voice on the PP, along with a willingness to switch up the personnel on the ice, where they are on the ice, and where the shots are coming from. Because McDavid is such an automatic zone entry, they can afford to vary up the looks that they give teams, almost like formations in football.
We need to get some faster forwards on the PK, which will allow the D-men to pressure on the blueline more aggressively.
McLeod, Foegele, Holloway were better and cheaper than Skinner, Arvidsson, and Henrique … JJ’s moves cost us dearly. Bowman managed to salvage the season with some astute moves for Podz, Walman, Klingberg, Kapanen.
Maurice. He had a replan for every single Oilers strength.
Oilers are scouted and are predictable.
I think the Panthers would eat both McLeod and Broberg alive.
Kind of like the way they ate the 2025 Oilers alive?
Hypothetical trade. Not sure how it would look asset wise, but thoughts on a Nurse for Ristolainen swap?
I know he’s not perfect, but I feel he would balance out our D and depending on cost, give us some cap relief this upcoming season to shore up other areas.
Ekholm Bouchard
Walman Risto
Kulak Klinger
Trading Nurse for Ristolainen and wondering whether it would improve the Oilers team might be an interesting hypothetical exercise. However, in reality it seems that no GM has yet engineered a trade convincing a player in Nurse’s circumstance (2+ years remaining with a full NMC on a Stanley Cup contending team) to waive said clause to be moved to any other team contending or otherwise. Philly hasn’t been in the playoffs in 5 seasons and went backwards last year. Never say never, but a miracle would be required to get that waiver for Nurse to go to Philly or even most other teams.
While some will say a good GM could do it or it’s possible in today’s NHL, they never explain how, since again no GM has done it yet. Karlsson and Jones waived to leave bottom feeding Lottery teams. Lucic waived in the summer of 2019 leaving non-playoff Edmonton (18/19) to go to playoff Calgary (18/19).
NMC waivers most often happen in the last year of the player’s contract and usually not till the deadline. Bowman has a somewhat better shot at moving Arvidsson and Henrique this summer as they only have 1 season left and they don’t have the connection with the team that Nurse has. Bowman, if he does want to move either of them this summer, would still have his work cut out for him to find trade opportunities that these two would prefer to staying in Edmonton.
The only appeal for Nurse to go to Philly is his uncle, Donavan McNabb, who lives in nearby New Jersey.
Do we think there is any chance Nurse is waiving at all let alone for Philly.
In addition to his best hockey friends being Oilers and his wife being in the inner circle worth their ladies (including being in Greece for Celeste’s staggette a few weeks back), he has put down roots and he and his wife are raising a young family in Edmonton.
Risto is also MUCH worse than Nurse so that cap savings better be spent wisely.
I was able to catch most of the service between moving in-laws & finishing report cards. Everyone did a wonderful job & you handled the mc duties very deftly. Thank you for helping Anna & Kevin send off Bruce so well.
I’m not in AB, so watched his Celebration via YouTube, and it’s clear from the sheer volume of loving words, laughter and tears shared yesterday that his life was one well-lived.
Rest in peace, Bruce. And love to his family and friends.
According to Bob it seems Arvi is on the move as well. Too bad, I thought he’d have been a better fit. It may be at his size with his style the curve has appeared, at least against the best teams
On Arvidsson trade has made sense for month. I gleaned from his verbal that he was very upset at that healthy scratching in the playoffs and figure his trade protection will be a non issue v
That god damn Sam Bennett would have to take his Conn Smythe trophy to Broward Humane to help get some kitty cats adopted. It’s hard to not like a guy that does that. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr Meow.
did Bubbles come ?
They’ve never been seen together, hmmmm…..
RIP BRUCE and love for family. I never knew Bruce personally but boy he was a shining light here on the LT page. Thoughts and prayers go out to all that new him. Send lots of love today.