Oilers fans are expecting big news today. If I were a betting man, and I am not, my do-re-mi would be on a new deal for Trent Frederic. The Darnell Nurse theory is fed by wishful thinking, strange internet fantasticals and of course the demon that is anticipation on a day like this. I would say dealing Nurse today is as likely as Edmonton picking in the first round tonight. Expect Frederic for long and $3.75 million and that’s probably your day.
I think the Oilers management group may well be contemplating a Nurse deal, but the timing is tight this summer. My understanding of his deal is the no-movement eases around July 1, 2027. At that time, via PuckPedia, Nurse will submit a 10-team no-trade list. I think management could make the case to Nurse one year from now and have his ear, but this summer? Man, that seems unlikely.
There’s also the matter of the transition from Mattias Ekholm on the top pair, to another lefty. I wrote about the impact of the LH defense in the finals, and in my opinion it’s a big damn deal. If you don’t trust Nurse over a clearly injured Ekholm for the game of the year, that’s a tell.
If we’re writing this era of the Oilers, it is a tragedy (duh!) and Nurse would represent one of three sons sentenced to live outside the city limits by the town fathers. I don’t think the two brothers who would remain would endorse such a deal, while also recognizing the reality of the cap, sunk cost, and the fact nothing lasts forever.
For today, think Frederic. If there’s a Nurse trade, or a deal that gets Edmonton into the first round tonight, hell’s bells that makes for a fascinating day. For me, I don’t see the wisdom in trading Nurse when the top LH defenseman is 35 and was running on fumes last we saw him.
On the Lowdown today, we preview the draft, free agency, trade rumours and even some real ones if they come. Lansky and Yaremchuk guests, noon to 2 on Sports 1440.
The 5 biggest questions facing the Edmonton Oilers this summer
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6453679/2025/06/27/oilers-roster-questions-2025-nhl-draft/
Nicely done LT!
That one play also highlights the impact of two injuries on that 5-some. Your analysis suggests to me how a healthy Ekholm and Hyman could likely have made enough of a difference to take it to Game 7. The depth that was real and effective against Kings, Vegans, & Stars was not quite enough against a powerful Panthers.
Something you didn’t mention, but alluded to, was what I would call defensive discipline against a proven threat. Specifically, the discipline of forwards to support the D – especially against an aggressive, opportunistic, and repeatedly effective Panthers forecheck. We saw great defensive awareness from Draisaitl during the regular season. We heard about his aspirations for the Selke. The SCF would have been a great place for him to channel his inner Barkov. The same might be said of McDavid, especially as they were both being limited as scoring threats 5v5.
Again, nicely done, throwing light on a number of questions for the Oilers, based on that one play. Almost poetic in its simplicity.
Bennett 8×8, knew that was going to happen. Man I hate the Panthers!! Hopefully they can’t afford March and Ekblad, but wouldn’t surprise me if they both took $4-5M to say.
Meanwhile in Edmt we’re giving 3rd/4th LW $3.85M x 8.
This team will only go as far as McD, Drai, and Bouch can drag them with 4th liners and rookies playing in the top 6.
It appears that he wasn’t swayed by Calgary’s $30 MM AAV offer.
I don’t know where others sit in this matter, but I’m just going to come out and say it: Oilers’ beat writer Daniel Nugent-Bowman is just too much of a homer writer for me to take seriously. I’ve been noticing this for a while now, not to say he isn’t a good writer, but he often sugarcoats the hell out of his pieces, versus applying journalistic critical thinking and writing.
Case and point: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6453930/2025/06/27/oilers-trent-frederic-contract-hyman-lucic/
Totally sugarcoats the Frederic signing and mistakingly notes he could be a PK driver, and neglects to make league-wide comparisons to the contract.
Still love me some Mr.Mitchell writing at The Athletic, but DNB needs some razor blades in his typewriter IMO.
So we accuse media of running players out of town, but when they don’t they’re too much of a homer?
I want to say Kane will “look good in Canucks’ threads” but with four primary uniform concepts, it will take a man of immense stylistic adaptability, perhaps even beyond Evander, to actually pull that off.
The way Stauffer was talking the last couple days, there’s something big a brew. Gregor just brought up Sorokin now they moved Dobson. I ponder the cost 27 1st, Skinner, 26 2nd, Akey?
The Skinner experiment is finally nearing its end
Big contract
If they are going to take on a big contract like that, they way forward requires moving out Nurse. So, in that respect the crazy rumours make sense.
If NY Islanders can get two first round picks 16 and 17 plus a warm body Emil Heineman for Dobson then what could Bouchard fetch?
Ideally Bouchard would fetch an 8x $10MM contract from the Oilers so he’s in Edmonton for the entirety of his prime.
The Freddy contract is just horrendous. Who were the Oilers bidding against?
Please provide me some examples of 8 year contracts for a 3rd/4th liner that aged well?
Hell people are already talking about the contract being buyout friendly as if that makes the signing better.
The more things change the more they stay the same.
For the record, Freddy has never spent a significant amount of time on the PK and has not been a regular at centre (despite playing on two teams that had mediocre centre depth).
hes going on mcdavids wing lol
Don’t lol in your comment! Many posters talk about finding another Maroon for McDavid’s wing! Dare to dream.
i think its funny that he could be a great find and he could actually be productive and beat the contract
— I always remember the observation I heard in an interview with a basketball GM who smartly pointed out that he hated trading for players on expiring contracts because that player has you “by the balls” as they know that you gave up a lot for them and will be the highest bidder to keep them
— That’s what this deal is.
— How many 27 year old 3rd liners sign 8 year contracts. Asking for a friend …
he better be parked on Draisaitls wing for that money
I don’t hate the Frederic deal, but we also keep hearing about how players want to play for winning teams and McDavid/Drai and will take discount contracts to do so, this isn’t that.
The Avs already moving on from Mr. Coyle
Im sure I remember someone on here boasting about the Avs unparalleled centre depth, but I could be wrong.
With Dobson signing in Montreal for 8 x $9.5 million, what does this do for the Bouchard negotiations? Are we looking at a similar scenario that happened when Holland gave Nurse way too much but based on the Seth Jones signing?
Bouch >> Dobson. Was hoping that Bowman could get this done for less than 8 figures per year though that is not looking good now!
I linked a piece from ON which breaks the Fred deal down. Also his offense is better than often said shown there
1-4 full nmc
5-6 a list
7-8 longer list
The cap hit will be little as the cap jumps. The contract is structured so it can be bought out without too much pain
https://oilersnation.com/news/eight-year-contract-edmonton-oilers-trent-frederic-isnt-risky
We haven’t seen work like this in a long time. Also Dobson 8×9.5, maybe Bouch won’t be so costly
I don’t think the scoring rates contradict anything being said here – they are 3rd line rates.
How many 3rd liners are signing 8 year contracts with full NMC for the first 4 years?
Ok, so the Frederic contract isn’t risky. But – is it necessary?
many fans still wonder why the amount and term would be given to a player who hasn’t shown any real abilities to be a key piece to this team’s success.
Zach Hyman was given 7 times $5.5 million with a recent injury history and a career highs of 21 goals and 41 points. Not saying Frederick can replicate Hyman but he doesn’t have to for this to work out.
Hyman’s deal at signing was 6.75% of the cap and Frederick’s is 4% so a full tier below. And so far Hyman’s contributions have significantly exceeded his cap cost.
If Frederic plays on the 3rd line, gets 30-40 points per season, while winning the goal share, plays some center and some pk ( he did both at times in Boston) he can cover the bet.
8 years seems long to me but at $3.85 million he is being paid below league average. (Also on average to get to the cap with a full 23 man roster, the average contract would be $4.2 million). By the time the season starts, there will be well over 300 players with NHL contracts being paid more than him. That is what bonafide 3rd line players age 25 and older get paid.
With Fred signed, Brown seemingly going to test free agency, and Arvi still a likely trade candidate the line up/cap looks like this:
RNH McD Hyman
Podz Drai Savoie
Fred Hen X
Jan X X
Ek Bouch
Nurse Wal
Kulak Emb
Stech
Stu
Pic
With $8.3M left for 3RW, 4C, 4RW and 13F. Still think 2nd line needs upgrading. PK will also need to be addressed. Of course goaltending but wouldn’t be surprised if that gets pushed to the deadline due to optionality.
Hard to say what they will do, reported interest in Perry. They have 2 RS C already in house in Philp and Tomasek who at 29 the Oilers and he must think he can crack the roster. If Philp isn’t ready now he never will be, many thought he was last season, Gregor wrote he’ll be qualified. And then there’s Kapanen lurking around
I think Henri should play wing at this point and let a faster younger guy do the extra skating, he seems to tire which isn’t surprising
If Bowman is recreating his Hawks success, I didn’t think he’d prioritize finding Bickell shaped men to fill the Bickell shaped holes.
Eight years seems like a long time and $3.85 seems like a high number. Seems needlessly risky. Oh well, hopefully Hyman can teach him how to play his best hockey in his 30s.
On Frederic, term and price seem high based on his career to date. My hope is that Bowman’s evaluation of Frederic’s talent (not his injury marred season) is as spot on is it seems to have been for Walman. It seems possible that there may be a lot more to Frederic than meets the eye test so far, and if he can contribute the way Walman did, it could be a good signing for at least the next 3-4 years.
After the two season ending in 2024, 26 year old Trent Fredric had scored 35 goals and 71 points. He was +37, a 220 pound wrecking ball with hands.
If you told me the Oilers would have this guy signed long term for under $4M, I’d have said it cost Holloway or Broberg to land him.
There is certainly risk, but there is tremendous upside.
Is the hold up with Frederic his asking price?
I think he can contribute to this line up but he sure didn’t help his case not being able to score a goal. Hes steady and plays smart, few points. How much is this worth?
We need change. Oilers, please be right with a reasonable contract.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-to-finalize-long-term-extension-for-trent-frederic/
When taking a step back, it is obvious that the Oilers missing piece is a top RS defenseman. As many of us do I been picking apart every NHL roster and the name that I keep going back to is Erik Karlsson, but I’ve thought Karlsson to be the ideal target (other than his salary) since his last season in Cali. It is clear that the focus on D is puck movement, there are very few that do this as well as EK. Question is, would Doc be interested? No doubt Dubas would be and he knows the player well.
Not easy to pull off, but if I had the steering wheel, I’d push hard for Darnell Nurse + Arvidson for Karlsson with $2.5 million retained (the Pens have lots of cap space and the have a gaping hole in their top pair, Letang would be an excellent partner for Darnell) + Tomasino + a 3rd (Pitt has 3) + a 5th (Pitt has 2). The picks are in consideration of Nurse having 5 yrs left.
I would also be looking at acquiring Pageau, using Henrique as the main piece. Something like Pageau + Engvall ($500 K retained) + Bolduc (6’4” LD, who needs a 2nd opinion). For Henrique + Janmark + rights to Muzenberger + 2026 2nd + Grubbe.
Money in = $16.25 million, with Tomasino signed 2 x $1.25 million Money out = $17.7 million
RNH – 97 – Hyman
Podz – 29 – Savoie
Fred – Pageau – Tomasek
Engvall – Philp – Tomasino
Eck – Bouch
Walman – EK
Kulak – Ember/Stech/Regula
Dineen
Goaltending – TBA
Most will hate the Engvall addition, but he scores more than Janmark, is fast, PKs and is 6’5”. If he plays 7-10 minutes per game, will he hurt you, or help you?
Is that improving the roster?
There is a focus here on addition by subtraction.
Engvall definitely gums up the works on this roster, but Pageau is a top 3C and a RHS to boot. Finding a low-cost offensive solution on LW2 would drastically improve the roster, but there simply is not enough Cap space.
Who are better fits? Drouin? Mantha?
For me it’s all about style. For anyone above replacement level (under 1M 4th liners that can lose jobs to the farm team anytime) most regular NHLers are pretty similar in what they can do overall, not the couple of crazy plays most NHLers will make in season
It’s how they do it for me. The 80’s Oilers and best teams now are my template. The 80’s Oilers because I think they were similar in their best players then as the team is now, missing a few support guys still sadly. Best teams now because they won, two of them twice, and also we have to beat them
Why is Janmark better in playoffs than reg season? Why did Pod have such a great run? Why is Bennett a 60 pt player reg season and Con Smythe winner in playoffs? It’s their attitude and how they play. Speed, assertiveness, toughness, game sense, play the details
That’s my template, when the going is tough that produces and wins the goal share. For goalies they need to not give up much easy and need to stop some they shouldn’t, especially when it counts most. Gregor had a fellow on the other day don’t recall who, he said he doesn’t like the word ‘talent’, he uses ‘ability’. Which I like as well, the manifestation of talent
I’m not referring to Moar Biggar, but ‘harder’ players I suppose. That can give back what the other team is dishing because it’s within their game, they mentally and physically can handle it, and they know how to do it without drawing eyeballs with whistles onto themselves. Trying to goon it up when it’s not there normally hasn’t worked so far
As a group they need to be more aggressive by nature, as last season they fell into lulls and took a while to get engaged. Need a whack in the chops so to speak to get into the fray. Bowman I think did refer to this indirectly when he said he likes a few new players every season, who are hungry for what the others experienced, going to the finals. Hungry being the operative word
The Habs getting Noah Dobson is le point finale on their expedient re-build.
That D Corps of:
Hutson – Dobson
Guhle – Matheson is 👌
Got a few young cost-controlled scorers up front. They’re going to overtake the Leafs in short order.
And the Habs keep Mailloux and Reinbacher.
That is going to be an A+ defense for a looooong time.
I was telling a Habs fan this AM that when a 25 YO RD is on the market you jump unless you have one of that calibre, because he already does what you hope the unestablished guys will. Same with a RC. If you end up with two and can carry the cap great, otherwise a very valuable trade chip
They should be a good jump better
8 X $9.5MM for Dobson and Bouchard is better offensively, defensively, on the PP and on the PK and elevates to best d-man in the NHL in the playoffs.
Would love to see a Bouchard 8x $10 or $10.5 following this Dobson deal.
When will this organization ever learn? Kassian 4 x $3.2, Lucic 7 x $6, Nurse 8 x $9.25 and now Frederic. I could add Jack Campbell, but at least that contract had an outside chance of working out on the day it was signed, IMO.
Also how did we go from 7 x $3.15 to 8 x $3.85?
I feel sick.
Where did you hear 7 x 3.15?
Capwages has had 3.85 x 8 years up on their site for a week now.
I think it might have been Stauffer and/or other local media that first mentioned $22 mln over 7 year before the news about $3.5 to $4 mln x 8 years surfaced.
I’m easily the most pessimistic poster on this board, but even I don’t understand how we went from back to back finals appearances to what seems like panic inside the organization and McDavid potentially signing for only 2-3 years…
I don’t believe there’s panic inside the organization. It’s more let’s make sure that the Edmonton Oilers get back to that SCF with whoever that may be. I think they want to build a team that will beat the Florida Panthers in that final.
What panic?
I’m not panicked and I don’t think management is either.
McDavid only signing for 2-3 is a vast exaggeration of the speculation that it may be shorter than 8 (around 5 is what’s out there).
Nothing has happened that indicates panic.
Great to see Frederic sign here. I respect everyone gets their own opinion, I truly believe Freddy will win a lot of you over.
I’ve been begging for this player type for years. Next up Kostin. Don’t let LA get him!
Klim Kostin is an interesting name to consider, he’s now UFA and has fond memories in Edmonton.
My mistake he’s RFA but if the Sharks don’t give him a qualifying offer, then he’s obviously UFA.
He was clearly targeted given the price paid. It’s like the org is weighting Frederick’s value based on pre-acquisition scouting or even pre-2025 scouting. Wonder if Bowman had his eyes on Frederic from the Blackhawk days.
Kostin may need a PTO given he’s only been an NHL player for a short stint in Edmonton – not before and not since he left.
I love him as a minimum salary bet. If he can’t cut it then off to Bake where they definitely need reinforcements. If he works out as a 4th liner then grand.
I really liked Frederic in Boston and thought he would be perfect for playoff hockey. I instantly thought Patty Maroon 20 goal crash and bang scorer who plays up and down the line-up. I could see a 4-5 year contract but a 8 year deal is puzzling. I do think he gets a nice push and will be a 20 goal scorer the next few years.
I was hoping he didn’t have trade protection, but I guess that’s pretty much standard these days.
If you can’t see this player as a candidate for Robidas Island years 6-7-8 your not paying attention on how the long game is played.
Planning on being on LTIR in the future is not a good plan.
If Frederic does his job properly for the next 5 years I can’t see much in the tank beyond that.
A good D elevates his partners, whoever those partners happen to be. A bad D drags down those same partners. With Nurse, we’re at the point that our former 1D from a few years ago drags most other D men down, plays poorly when the stakes rise in the playoffs, makes too many mistakes, and seems more likely to get worse rather than better in the years to come. His performance in the playoffs this year was very disheartening. No injuries that I’ve heard about and he was meh at best, a big liability at worst.
If u have a chance to move on from a guy you can’t trust in the playoffs and can only make it work with 7D Troy Stecher for $9.25 MM you do it. Oil would have to retain some salary I think and find a dumb GM, and get Nurse to wave.
I remember making a critical post of Nurse around G1 of the SCF, talking about Nurse as a scratch option. The post was deleted for some reason. Now look at where the verbal is going.
I’m sure you can move Nurse it’s just the return won’t be great, like Kane but more
Nurse with $2m return has value, 4th-round draft pick value.
Some GM always wants players like Nurse. They often don’t seem to notice or care about issues. How did Dave Savard stay around for so long? Bcs big and tough and ‘seen’ as a good defender
The issue would probably be if a team Nurse would go to liked him and had the cap
LOL throw Nurse in as a sweetener with Arvidsson. Clear up some cap space.
With respect, you can’t be sure with a player that has a pure veto (and zero indication he would have any interest in leaving for multiple stated reasons).
You can’t know that he wouldn’t want to move either. I’m sure he enjoys being villainized for his contract daily.
I don’t know that he wouldn’t want to move and have always provided the opinion that I don’t think he would and base it on real facts.
Your post, on the other hand, says you are “sure they can move Nurse” – stated as a fact.
Nurse may be “vilified” by a portion of the fanbase but, not only can he generally avoid that, I’m confident he’s not vilified by his teammates nor his coaching staff who all seem to value him immensely.
We know he’s very close with the elite core, some of which have already committed long term. We know his wife is close with their wives (was at Celeste’s stag in Greece). Mostly, we know he has been raising a young family in Edmonton and is a huge part of the community.
Its impossible for you to be sure that he can be moved but, given the facts, its hard to see how one can opine that is reasonable that he would be even a bit open to it – although that is an opinion that one can have.
The return matters less than the cap space does.
I remember everyone here going off the rails when we signed Hyman … the deal was seen as too much for too long, for a guy that had been oft injured to that point in his career was the common refrain.You don’t see anyone complaining about the deal now.
I trust that Bowman and the Oilers pro scouts have watched Frederic play more than any of you, and have a very good idea of what they are doing.
If you want a big tough player, which most teams do, Frederic is a better all round player than Kane, Kostin (can’t stick in the NHL) Kassian, Lucic and many others
If he plays top 6 wing he might spike in offense like Hyman has, his career high goals in TO was 21
I know nothing about Frederic, but was very pleasantly surprised in the few moments he played after arriving (during which he re-injured(?) himself. The player that emerged in the SCF, and that third line, looked promising. Like you, I have more faith in Bowman & co’s vision than what I read from fans and pundits. I am genuinely curious about how they deploy the talent they assemble. Let’s go Oilers!
ps. To your note about Hyman, he may have been the difference between a Cup win and a Game 6 fade this year. My question is, Would a healthy Frederic have been a factor in a Cup win? We shall see…
So a realistic best-case scenario I see for Frederic is Freddy Gaudreau, who hockey reference lists as one of the comparables for Frederic.
Gaudreau is 32 and has averaged 12-18-30 over 82 games throughout his career, peaking at 14-30-44 in 76 and 19-19-38 in 82 during his age 28 and 29 seasons. However, Gaudreau also plays center (which Frederic nominally has the ability to do, but every coach he’s played for over his career has played him primarily on the wing), and Gaudreau kills penalties. Gaudreau signed a $2.1×5 contract in 2023 heading into his age 30 season.
Even with the cap going up, the only way this contract doesn’t work out to being an overpay is if Frederic can put up a few 20 goal seasons AND maintain his effectiveness through his Age 34 seasons. So, do something he’s never done before TWICE and avoid injuries/regression as he gets older.
Oof.
Frederic is 27 and coming off of a 3x$2.3M contract with the Bruins. Not so sure Freddy Gaudreau is a realistic comparable.
I think if LA strikes out on Gavrikov then they may circle to Nurse? where theres smoke gotta be fire? Holland signed the deal
If they could do that and sign Gav it would be a big upgrade. Bowman would be a superstar to me
Accomplishing a “Nurse in, Gavrikov Out” move without any cap retention/paying draft picks would earn Stan the GM of the year award, even with the Frederic contract.
Nurse isn’t going anywhere until 2027
i dont think Nurse is moveable either unless a GM is desperate and Nurse is ready to move on from Edmonton
I’ve read that Gavrikov is already starting to slow down at the tender age of 29.
“For me, I don’t see the wisdom in trading Nurse when the top LH defenseman is 35 and was running on fumes last we saw him”
There’s almost no way Nurse gets moved. NTC, buyout-proof contract, cap hit and term are all going against that being a possibility.
But the reasoning for doing it is clear. We need cap space and his contract is significantly more than his play warrants and LD is the area we have the most depth on the roster. If you can (which you can’t) trade him, then you absolutely do it.
Emberson and Bouchard would be the only D under contract for the following year. But you STILL do it if you can.
There’s no way you can move nurse. But if you could you absolutely have to
I’m not so sure Ekholm, at this stage of his career can still be considered the top LHD on this Oilers team.
If it’s not Ekholm still, then it’s Walman. Nurse might be better than Kulak.
Kulak has been a better pair with Bouchard than Nurse. Ekholm is going into his final year with Edmonton, playing him alongside Emberson or Stecher or even Regula on the third pair might not be out of the realm of possibility. They actually have plenty of depth on the blueline next season.
Kulak-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Ekholm-Emberson/ Stecher
Leppanen-Regula (who could see NHL action)
The problem isn’t that Ek might not be capable of 1LD. It’s that neither is Nurse, and at 9.25M.
It’s not really a problem when they have the depth to deal with it. I think they still might just go with the top pairing of Nurse & Bouchard or continue with the top pair of Ekholm & Bouchard. Who knows they may even like the looks of Regula & Bouchard. Nurses contract is what it is but that’s OK.
Except they don’t have the depth to deal with it. If they did, then Nurse would be 1LD. So, ya, it’s a problem, or starting to be a problem.
Frederic it is!
Not being pessimistic but that’s a Peter Chiarelli levels stupid deal.
Nurse can be very effective with the right partner.
Unfortunately, that’s a unicorn, and Stetcher has been the best in the role.
Bowman said that they won’t tinker too much w/ the D.
I don’t buy the Nurse verbal.
And if you move him for a pick – then you got to replace him.
Who would that be?
An Ekholm / Walman / Kulak left side would be fine. If Nurse is traded you “replace” him with Nik Ehlers.
They’ve got 6 Dmen signed, plus Bouchard when they eventually sign him, probably 4x$10M. Not to mention Alex Regula & Atro Leppanen looking to factor in as well. Nurse isn’t going anywhere, of course now that I’ve said that they trade him. I’ll just say they might want to have a close look at Regula & Leppanen first.
I think Walman could easily fill Nurse’s shoes. That said, I can’t see him waiving to go anywhere. And even moreso, there’s no way they trade one of McDavid’s buddies before he’s signed.
Agreed. I don’t see losing Nurse, especially if another Walman type is in the deal coming back, as catastrophic.
If those two remaining brothers are serious about winning the Cup then they should endorse any trade that makes the team better, regardless of the friendships with teammates.
Especially when the track record is clear and the cap hit harmful. They can hang at the cottage all summer
Just FYI Brandon Saad is a UFA this summer. He and Bowman have a history, I wouldn’t be surprised if he came here on a fairly cheap deal. $2M x 2 or so.
Lukas Reichel, another Bowman guy, is available. I wonder if something around Victor Arvidsson could be worked out.
For me Saad is too old and slow and unproductive and Reichel too small, I hope not. They also need to make sure if they add at F the player has the jam to handle teams like the Panthers, the Oilers achilles heel
Saad isn’t speedy anymore but his burst numbers were similar to Connor Brown’s last year. Far, FAR better than Corey Perry’s – who was the Oilers best winger in the finals. His 5v5 P/60 was pretty much identical to Hyman’s, who was 4th best among Oilers forwards.
I think your analysis needs to go a bit farther.
I don’t like the P/60 stat because it’s misleading. The best players get the most TOI, that it makes Saad look like Hyman isn’t good. Saad had 2 assists in 8 games. I think P/GP is a truer look, 5v5 Saad .25 and Hyman .53. Perry was .18 so if I had to choose between them Saad is a better choice also being 8 years younger
I prefer players that are better natural skaters, I think they keep their levels up in playoffs better, heavier legged guys tire. I also think they take more time away when forechecking
To be clear, the stats I was looking at were regular season stats. I didn’t look at playoff numbers due to small sample size.
And I’m not arguing for a Saad signing, just that he’s out there, won’t be expensive and is a Bowman guy. I could see it happening.
Agreed
If Saad signs here it will be 7 years at $3.5m. Just using Frederic for comparable. Haha
I’d be surprised if he doesn’t re-sign in Vegas. Happy for them to double down on a blah transaction.
Noah Dobson asking for $11MM is something.
Worse offensively than Bouchard. Worse defensively than Bouchard. Worse in special teams than Bouchard.
So that means we need to sign Bouchard before his agent can point to Dobson’s contract and say “we should be getting that and more”.
Given we’ve been through this before, with Bowman involved, I hope they wrap Bouch up before Dobson gets moved. Bouch getting much more than 10 won’t be good for him like it’s not for Nurse, being over payed adds pressure and scrutiny
A trade of Nurse this off-season is not in the realm of reasonableness.
I agree LT, Nurse can’t be moved without another LD coming back of some sort because there are no LD in the system good enough. Kulak has never been able to stay top 4 and Ek may be broken at this pointRight side
I expect Regula to push if he’s healthy because he’s old enough, big enough, can skate, and is a top AHL defenseman. They are fairly deep if Walman can succeed at RD.
However Bowman has demonstrated he can make deals and despite being out a few years is still connected
A few things about the Freddy deal:
* He was banged up, we never saw full Freddy. Boston set a regular season win record. He was a huge part of that. Ask Louie DeBrusk.
* Cap is rising: $95.5 million, $104 million and $113 million in the next 3 years. He is 4% of the cap next season. He is 3.5% of the cap 3 seasons from now. Cap will go up further, and his % will look even better.
* A top 9 utility forward with 20G potential who fights and can PK. Prime of his career!
* He’s an American! We got one locked up! Finally!
All true except he was not good this season pre-injury – 8G/15P in 53 games before he got hurt.
He has had two good NHL seasons that, in isolation, seem market for his AAV but not his term. Those two seasons are likely near his ceiling so there is very little chance he outperforms this contract.
The Oilers are paying high but buying low.
Thing is, we hate the term but, at the same time, the cap is expect to go up and up and up indefinitely so the term may be a good thing to have him provide value – there is coast certainty with a mid-career player.
He needs to remain an effective complimentary scorer through his age 34 season to provide value in the back end of this contract, and that “cost-certainty” might end up being bought out in a few years if age/injuries catch up with Frederic and limit his effectiveness.
Why overpay (in terms of term) for a player coming off an injured season?
The only saving grace of this contract is that it doesn’t include any movement/trade protection.
I look forward to Frederic being traded to the Predators for a 7th round pick in a few years
The cap might be $140MM plus by that time.
(a) Frederic wasn’t a huge part of Boston’s successful seasons, he was a 3rd line winger who contributed reasonably well in his only 2 good season. Yeah, he’s 27 and has only had 2 good seasons, how do you think the next 8 years will go?
(c) Frederic has never scored 20 in a season and he DOES NOT PK.
20 goal “potential” gets you 8 years…
That is absolutely insane.
These are all reasons to support a 4 year deal at a comparable cap hit. The final 4 years of the deal are insane.
David Clarkson signed a $5.25×8 deal and never played a game in the final 4 years. Even if Frederic puts up a 20 goal season in the first 4 years, there is a real risk he slows down/gets hurt and is a fringe NHLer for the final 4 years of that deal.
Incredibly (and unnecessarily) risky deal.
Holloway is $2.3 million for St. Louis this year. The same people who thought that was too much for this season just agreed to the Frederic contract.
This makes me sad, but what you gotta remember is last years cap implications and roster situation was much different then the one they have to navigate this year.
What a brutal contract for the organization to hand out. Not that I should be surprised.
B2B cup finals. What a scrub org I agree.
Any halfway competent organization would have won a cup already after having McDavid fall into their laps.
Name the last time a player that good went this far into their career without a cup? That’s an indictment of the organization, not the player.
The great 8 comes to mind, and he’s scored the most goals in nhl history and only likley to get one cup I’d argue that many of the players in Toronto are just about as far into there careers and dont even have a cup final to show for it. That’s just off the top of my head. Sky might not clear and calm today but it’s really not falling just yet.
Darren Dreger
@DarrenDreger
8 years, $3.85 aav for Frederic in Edmonton.
8:18 AM · Jun 27, 2025
Lunacy.
Ugh. I don’t understand why the media people refuse to be critical of this deal. It stinks.
Because the Edmonton media’s job is to carry water for the organization and they won’t criticize management because they’d lose their access.
Just give it a few years until the team realizes their mistake and wants to trade frederic, then the team will give the media permission to criticize the player to justify their decision to offload their mistake.
I don’t understand the “need” to go 8 years… this type of player usually doesn’t age well… Is it just me ?
I don’t get it.
unfortunately your buying UFA years its gonna cost us. Oilers sunk assests and usually overpay rentals to stay
Arguably the Oilers would have been better off not even buying his age 31-34 UFA years. Why the Oilers felt the need to have this player for so long is beyond me.
One of the things that either LeBrun or Friedman was saying last week is that with the cap going up, deals were going to be for higher dollar valuations than we’re used to.
Five years of essentially flat caps meant deals were kept low. Now that there is more money, we’re going to adjust to seeing this kind of thing whether we like it or not.
Good point. When the cap takes a good jump the ‘extra cap’ is short lived because players ask for and get paid more
The other side of this coin is this player type is widely valued. Agree with that line of thinking or not, big tough players that are also good players have always had a special place in hockey manager’s hearts. The term guarantees him a certain amount of money and long term security, the extra year they could give keeps the cap hit down compared to what others would have to offer
And 3.85M in say 5 years isn’t going to be a bigger salary, not a problem for a proper GM
That may explain the high AAV, but there is no rational explanation that can convince me that the 8 year term will age well. I don’t get it.
He was not good this season pre-injury – 8G/15P in 53 games before he got hurt.
He has had two good NHL seasons that, in isolation, seem market for his AAV but not his term.
Those two seasons are likely near his ceiling so there is very little chance he outperforms this contract.
The Oilers are paying high but buying low.
Thing is, we hate the term but, at the same time, the cap is expect to go up and up and up indefinitely so the term may be a good thing to have him provide value – there is coast certainty with a mid-career player.
They knew that when they foolishly didn’t match Holloway last summer for $2.3 million.
Still no explanation for an 8 year term. I’m mildly irritated by the cap hit, but the term is absurd.
I hate the term and the AAV, this player has not been a strong scorer over his career and now we have him until age 35. I would have been okay with 2M AAV, this is near double what I expected Add the poor playoffs performance, was he injured? Maybe
Then a one year show me deal would have been a requirement to pull the trigger on a deal like this
“sigh”
Who were we competing with for this contract? Why not 7 years? Or 5 years.
It’s funny that the new CBA will decrease the length of contracts to help protect GMs from themselves.
but this is a Pierre engvall contract. I see regret in near future
8 year term for a player who, based on the type of game he plays and limited upside, might not even be NHL-quality in a few years.
This feels like Leafs giving David Clarkson $5.25Mx8. If you recall, MacT offered Clarkson even more $, but Clarkson wanted to play for his hometown team. Too bad there was no one to save the Oilers from their own idiocy this time around as well.
Clarkson was out of the league 4 years into that deal. There’s a real chance Frederic is in the same boat.