Vasily Podkolzin was a value contract and then some one year ago, but there is always a need to improve the roster. Is he the best fit for Leon Draisaitl’s left wing?
Draisaitl with Podkolzin (five-on-five) scored 59 percent of the goals (62 expected) and posted 3.26 goals-60. That’s an effective duo. Podkolzin scored 2.17 points-60 with Leon, while Draisaitl scored 2.65 points-60 with Podkolzin.
Leon without his big winger posted 59 percent of the goals (59 expected) and his line roared to a 3.33 goals-60 pace (all of this is five-on-five). So the goal share and goals-60 for the line were really the same no matter the Russian’s presence or omission. Draisaitl without Podkolzin scored 2.72 points-60, that’s basically the same number. Leon’s overall points-60 (2.69) was No. 7 in the NHL.
So what can we learn from these numbers? If we can agree that luck was completely ironed out from the results (and that’s a difficult thing to argue either way), Draisaitl’s five-on-five results stayed the same no matter Podkolzin’s presence. It obviously helped the Russian, and that could impact the contract to come, something Stan Bowman will have to consider.
Also worth considering: for some time now, Draisaitl has shown an ability to perform well with 6’s and 7’s and 9’s. That’s something the Pittsburgh Penguins noticed about Sidney Crosby, and used to the organization’s advantage. Using the last three seasons of Leon, here are the big man’s goal share with (and without) individual players at five-on-five:
- Connor McDavid 1344 mins 62 pct (Leon 53 w/o)
- Zach Hyman 1309 mins 64 pct (Leon 53 w/o)
- Evander Kane 691 mins 53 pct (Leon 61 w/o)
- Warren Foegele 542 mins 61 pct (Leon 53 w/o)
- Vasily Podkolzon 497 mins 59 pct (Leon 63 w/o)
- Nuge 487 mins 59 pct (Leon 57 w/o)
- Viktor Arvidsson 388 mins 52 pct (Leon 64 w/o)
- Kailer Yamamoto 346 mins 59 pct (Leon 51 w/o)
What does this tell us? Leon can work with anyone. Ideally, you’d run two guys making a million each (as in Podkolzin and Matt Savoie next season) while making damn good and sure they are signed for 2026-27 just in case one of them breaks out during the 2025-26 campaign.
On the Lowdown today, the final appearance of the summer for Rachel Doerrie, and Jason Gregor will talk Elks. Noon to 2pm today on the Lowdown.
Is Oilers forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins reaching a career crossroads?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6476541/2025/07/07/oilers-ryan-nugent-hopkins-stats-2025/
I liked RNH in this Stanley Cup run. I also liked him on his own line, later in the season. He may be “inefficient” as a third line centre, but there are other values than points.
I’d rather have Frederic for 8 years at $3.85 million than McBain at $4.25 for 5 years. Woof.
There’s bound to be more expensive extensions before the season begins.
So was Draisaitl 3.26/60 or 2.65/60 with Podz? I’m confused.
As mentioned in the piece, Draisaitl-Podkolzin as a duo (on a line) scored 3.26 GOALS-60. Draisaitl posted 2.65 POINTS-60 individually while Podkolzin was his linemate.
All numbers five-on-five.
Thank you I now understand.
You bet. I could have worded it better for sure.
The 3.26 /60 is the goals scored by the Oilers per 60 while both Draisaitl and Podz were on the ice without reference to which players on the Oilers got credited with a goal or an assist. The 2.65/60 is the amount of points Draisaitl was credited with on goals scored while on the ice with Podz. The former should almost always be higher than the latter, (unless the player gets a lot of his points by passing the puck up and go straight to the bench for a change before a the goal is scored – an assist but no plus)
Darnell Nurse to F makes sense again.
We will do this before the end of the decade and we will do the other thing not because it is easy but because it is hard.
It really does not make any sense – at least to me – like zero.
It hasn’t made sense to you, yet.
I can see him putting 15 goals in as a middle 6 player who can be hard in front of the net, and carry the puck into the zone. He can put the puck on the net even if he doesn’t have a very accurate shot its hard and can create chaos for the goalie. I think its safe he would have defensive awareness (I mean, he has awareness at least, already) and then running up and down the wing and along the boards he could be a menace without the necessity of the complexities of a defender. We keep saying, He Has The Tools, so why not try him elsewhere? Perhaps the toolkit needs a new job.
Or, I mean look at it this way: Oilers aren’t going to be able to trade Nurse, at a time when their defensive group is strong, where we are looking for middle six size and speed.
The arguments for not trying it out are: Maybe he doesn’t want to? It rarely happens? What else? What is it fundamentally about his game that doesn’t make sense?
Hell, put him with 97 and Hyman and tell the entire unit: OK, make this work. You got a month.
I really thought Coffey would give him the green light and turn him into a rover like his junior days. Nurse can have a decieving shot when he’s not throwing muffins. I get that you want to have structure as a Coach and your job depends on wins but K.K needs to live a little with and turn Nurse loose which would cause chaos in both directions.
Nurse had a very good regular season – his game was not as good in the playoffs (again).
He is dangerous with the puck when he can get in close to the net. As a defender he doesn’t get many opportunities to do that.
I am one of the few folks who has been banging this drum for a while and getting downvoted.
This team has talent. We are being beaten tactically. I don’t think it would hurt to try Nurse on the wing and see what happens…
I think McDavid and Leon will become more selfish with the likes of Frederic-Podkolzin clearing the area for them to shoot. A return of 50 goals for the dynamic duo. On a side note Bouchard scores 20.
So Oilers were going to sign Bouch to 9.5 x 4 mil contract but Carolina had an offer sheet ready so they had to bump it to 10.5. But Bouch signed on June 30th.
Why are we complaining about tampering. There is absolutely no way Bouchard should have known there was an offer sheet ready.
His agent is a wanker. Who I see is Sam’s dad. If Leon doesn’t take as much as he could ask for and Connor didn’t last time (and won’t take 18.8M this time either), I don’t think a anyone else should. He has done some great things, but I don’t see a Cup on his resume
He could have bought himself some breathing room with the highly engaged fan base. I’m a Bouch fan but I see this as a poor decision, and it reflects poorly on where his head is at, if he’d leave to a worse situation for Cup aspirations with far lesser players over that amount, when he had another number he was happy with and is already set for life. How’d that work out for Darnell?
If it’s true that is
First comparing Bouchard to McDavid and Draisaitl is a little unfair. Bouchard will be turning 26 early in the new season and has career earnings of $9.9 million. By age 26, McDavid already had career earnings over $60 million, and Leon had made close to $40 million. And shaving a million dollars off $14+ million deals is less of a sacrifice than $1 million at $10.5.
Second, it is possible that the Noah Dobson signing influenced a change as well. He signed for 8 x $9.5 3 days before Bouchard.
Finally, seems disrespectful to refer to Dave Gagner as Sam’s dad. He had a fairly distinguished 15 year NHL career, playing 972 games and netting 719 points. He also worked in team management before ever becoming an agent. Also, maybe just criticize his actions without resorting to unnecessary insults towards a person you don’t even know.
Puckpedia says est. career earnings of 22.575M. We don’t know what happened definitively, but for me it doesn’t matter what Dobson got on a worse team with long off Cup aspirations. It didn’t matter what Jones got in Chicago before Nurse, now it’s a problem. To the point he has heard his GM ask him if he’d waive
It’s about winning, and taking more means less chance of winning. Many players do it. Mangiapane has 28.68M in earnings at 29, far less money ahead of him than Bouch, he reportedly left more than 1M on the table to play on the Oilers. I want a team full of those guys
I don’t see the comparison to the Duo as unfair. They deserve more than anyone to be paid in full, they don’t take it, because they want to win and do it on the Oilers. I want players that want to win more than worry about money they will most likely only know as a number on a spreadsheet. It was different for Desharnais for sure, but this is not that. Connor and Leon should be the standard for that on the Oilers as well, like Barkov is on the Panthers
I would say calling ‘Dave’ a wanker is more insulting than calling him his son’s father, but I suppose some people have more sensitivities than I do. I wrote that *(Sam’s dad)* as an Oilers tie, not to insult him. I was unpleasantly surprised it was him. I don’t actually think he’s a wanker, it’s low brow parlance but funny to me, but I still think what they did there was a mistake
I take my direction from what Winters talks about, I agree with him. If it’s been taken as somewhat disloyal and not about winning first, it could come back on Evan. The extra million is also gas on fire for those that already have issues with how he plays, as a bonus. That criticism does affect how players feel, and it’s a lot in a market like Edmonton
The gross potential value of Evan’s first 2 contracts before signing this one was $12.6 million, including base salary and ELC bonuses, so Puckpedia is already giving him credit for the first year of his new contract. But the $12.6 million overstates how much he actually got paid since he spend 2/3 of 20/21 on the Covid Tax Squad, I leave only collecting his minors salary. I think he also earned less than half of his ELC contract bonuses which had a max of $2.6 million. Capwages has the $9.9 million through to the end of this season.
And while I agree that McDavid and Draisaitl are deserving of being paid more than other players, they are no more deserving of being paid what they are worth (ie the market value of their hockey services) than any other player in the NHL is of getting paid what they are worth.
Many seem to want Vegas Knights’ management ruthlessness to get the cup, which involves little loyalty to the players but wants the players to be loyal to the team.
Over the next 2 seasons, if Oilers management did not think Evan Bouchard remained one of the answers to winning a cup, they could easily trade him before any NMC or NTC could kick in on any contract he signed. If so, he would have taken a discount for nothing. People expected loyalty from Holloway and Broberg wanting them to stay for lower salaries, but they had no assurances that the team wouldn’t have traded them like they did Ryan MacLeod, Cody Ceci or Evander Kane.
There projects to be 11 skaters in camp in September who played a game in the 24 playoffs only 14 months ago. That is a lot of player turnover. And various fans would like to see that reduced even further wanting to unload, Nurse Janmark, and Henrique and even some who suggest Ekholm might be expandable. Others wish that Hopkins didn’t have an NMC so he could be traded, despite the fact he definitely took a discount to say.
I would like it if players on the teams I cheer for in a cap world were willing to take a hometown discount to help get better players, but I begrudge none of them if they choose not to, nor do I consider them selfish nor feel that they do not want to win.
Puckpedia is taking in to account the $11MM signing bonus Bouch got on July 1, 6 days ago.
Still means that payment is irrelevant to discussing what Bouchard had earned up to the point of negotiating and signing his contract extension.
For sure – just providing the extra detail as I know you pay attention to the details.
Well said, I don’t agree with it all, but that’s ok
I have a very strong opinion about this.
I know it sucks for fans and the team, but the salary cap is rising and Bouchard has earned this contract. He’s been an exceptional playoff defenseman and a massive contributor to the success of the team reaching 2 consecutive Cup Finals.
The other contracts on the team should have no impact on what he deserves, that is 100% the fault of the Organization for piss poor planning and inefficient cap management. Players shouldn’t have to take pay cuts if they’ve earned the amount offered and Bouchard has clearly earned this.
Wishing and hoping that a young, very successful player takes a pay cut is a fool’s errand. I think every fan of this team should be grateful that he was not offer-sheeted. Did we really need to go through that mental meat-grinder again?
Also, offensive players get paid FULL STOP.
So no one should be surprised or offended, and if you are then you haven’t been paying attention.
I think that this and what Traveller is saying doesn’t take into account that there are repercussions with contracts. Nurse took max and how has that worked out for him? Almost everyone here and pundits think it’s a problem. What were the conditions that created the market then? Holland and Bowman created a false value and neither Nurse or Jones are worth what they got, Holland also paid for an outlier season
Bouch has a far better chance of living up to his deal than Nurse did. If he doesn’t take a step in consistency – which he mentioned, which is good – he’ll be jumping into Nurse’s world I think. It’s not just my opinion on this, if agents say it also. Mo money, mo problems
Bettman’s system is working, nothing to see here.
[NHL News] Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman: “We didn’t even get a chance to talk to those guys (the top free agents). They all signed with their clubs or were traded before free agency. Not much we can do about that.”
After reading Friedman’s piece on this situation, short of a Cup next season, I’d be shopping Bouchard at the ‘26 Draft.
Why?
I understand the money aspect of the business, but to ponder running for the highest bid kind of blows the whole, tight group narrative to goat manure. And to that end, 97 & Drai. If you’re out for the ultimate goal not once but hopefully repeatedly, love the fan support and all the other hullabaloo, take a haircut with salary. Honestly, talent and effort should be compensated but how much does a person need?
Players are entitled to what they can get, but at least knock the bs off about the love of team and fans crap.
We really don’t know anything about Bouchard and his agent’s negotiation process for this contract and it being known that the Oilers knew that offer sheets were coming (which info did not come through Bouchard) doesn’t change that.
As has already been brought up, this is Bouchard’s first big contract – he had his ELC and his 2-year bridge at $3.9MM.
No player in his circumstance across the league is taking a discount. The discount are taken by older players that have made tens and tens of millions such as Marchand ($80MM plus) and Ekblad ($70MM plus).
Shit even Sam Bennett cashed in with the Panthers.
Managers talk – as Brian Lawton mentioned, a team would rather orchestrate a trade then acquire via offer sheet.
From what we know, this information came to the Oil not through Bouchard.
I haven’t been here much lately so pardon me if I missed it, but can anyone point me to reports from the Oilers rookie camp? I’ve seen snippets here and there, but no comprehensive coverage.
Honestly this camp had the least amount of buzz I can ever remember for the past 20 years. Perhaps because there wasn’t a 1st rounder in the mix from this draft…
The only thing I could see was the 3 on 3 footage.
https://youtu.be/If36lhE2Dg0?si=XiE92quwbMzn-2z6
Thanks! O’Reilly looks big and strong out there.
I wish we had a Terry O’Reilly a 20 goal scorer that would drop the mitts when necessary.
Trent Frederic could approach 20 goals this season.
Agreed, he was very impressive.
Conversely, Nicholl was completely invisible, but that is also why these 3 on 3 games annoy me, it doesn’t give fast players much room to shine.
I was also very pleased with what Lafreniere brought. The kid’s a gamer, as advertised.
Copponi also stood out to me.
I found this helpful:
https://x.com/mathewjdp/status/1940892873203097721
Thanks. That’s the second reference I’ve seen to Marjala impressing. I suppose it shouldn’t surprise that a point-per-game player in Europe’s 2nd best league shines in this situation, but the signing has been largely unheralded. Could turn into a nice acquisition if he takes to the smaller ice.
I’ve watched a lot of his hi-lights and he is extremely creative, my perspective is that he thinks the game on a different level.
Not sure how well-rounded he is, but he has loads of potential, IMO. He would be very effective with a first shot shooter or two on his line or other creative players.
There is so much potential on the Condors this coming season, I wouldn’t be surprised if this rookie class puts up historical numbers (since LT has started this blog, at least).
I will be getting an AHL subscription for sure and I plan to finally get to the Saddledome this season to watch the Condors in action.
However, until they win games they probably wont get much attention, but this team has a lot of impressive (AHL-level potential) producers.
1 Jarventie-Hamblin-Griffith
2 Samanski – Rem Pittlick – Hutson
3 Rhett Pittlick – TBC – Keppen
4 Petrov – Grubbe – Copponi
The roster probably will be filled out with vets/NHL PTO’s
Also, unless there is an LTIR to start the season (or something material happens), the Oilers will only be able to carry 13F which means one of Philp, Lazar, Tomasek or, perhaps, Janmark could be added (only Tomasek waivers exempt).
Clattenburg will make the big club within a few years.
Here is hoping but he’s a definite distance bell for a while.
AHL TV can now be be viewed through Flo Hockey and it provides access to much more than AHL game.
A lot of rose coloured glasses around here. We’ve lost Kane, Klingberg, Arvidsson, Brown, Perry and Skinner and added in Mangiapane and Lazar. This is a year after losing Holloway, Broberg, Foegele and McLeod. And I suppose we should add in Walman, Savoie and Frederic. I don’t count #7 defense Emberson and Desharnais.
We can and should be optimistic about Mangiapane but if an impartial observer were to rank these players for this year it probably goes Holloway, Broberg, Walman, Kane, McLeod, Foegele, Klingberg, Arvidsson, Mangiapane, Perry, Brown, Frederic, Savoie, Skinner and Lazar. Legit top-6/top-4 to Foegele. Middle group from Klingberg to Freddy are 3rd liners who can move up in a pinch. Bottom group are 12/13 forwards or in the case of Savoie unproven youngsters who could get AHL time.
I think we can be thankful that we didn’t blow our brains out on bad contracts but yet still admit we’ve taken a step back.
Need a big addition on the wings.
but the d looks good.
I have been thinking that many fans feel regret when players go and things change, human nature. The roster is under Bowman a growing organism, and he will shape the team as he thinks it needs to be, and has shown he can do things at any time. His additions so far have fit the bill for me
Maybe the group isn’t as good. But it wasn’t good enough before. Really in two playoffs they couldn’t match the Panthers. Yes there was a game 7, and good on them for battling back, but they did have their hats handed to them going down 3-0 and the comeback was very unlikely. They were outmatched this go round and were healthier – there were injuries on both sides – but healthier than 2024
Kane and Arvidsson had good playoffs, but had 3 5v5 points between them in the final. Brown Perry and Skinner had none. Brown and Skinner got outshot and outscored in playoffs. In the final Perry outshot but was Connor driving that? And he got outscored
Some changes are cap related and who Stan could move, but that group didn’t give Connor and Leon enough I don’t think when it counted most. Connor and Leon aren’t going, so it’s them. Pod and Kapanen were the two most productive forwards 5v5 in the SCF and didn’t get outscored, they are still there
There’s some risk in it, but risk and change are where opportunity lie, and the forwards need to be better than they were, even if they aren’t right now. I also think Mangi will contribute more than many are expecting, overall. I think he will be better in a series like the SCF than a lot of the guys were
How so? Most here are projecting him to be 1LW.
He’s a good player that has played and had success against elites recently. They don’t have a higher skill winger to use, at least until the deadline
For me it’s about what a player is good at more than their points, and I’m thinking playoffs. There are so many good regular season players that don’t translate to playoffs, like Marner. We have seen twice how a certain player type helps win Cups, and how the team they were built to get by was also built in Tampa. You need players that are all in, get details, and are assertive
There is also what compliments the duo. Being a good player is not enough. Adding an agitating fast assertive player that does have skill is what’s missing as the Oilers become less vanilla overall. Arvidsson is that, but the coach had an issue. Skinner isnt that. Kane has issues with details but did hold his own being healthy this round
So I think, realizing it’s a projection, that his abilities will augment the best players, and help them push the other side harder. That is so important as we saw them have trouble keeping the push going. I’ve already said Bowman feels he’s a type that keeps plays alive, and part of that is battle and details. And keeping pace up
That is why Pod and Kap did the best job in the finals for forwards 5v5. Kap even being a bit of a wildcard with details. Mangi is a better player and proven compared to them. He’s performed on a big stage with Henrique so I think he’s one who will bring his best when it matters most. Janmark and Kap also have done that, playoffs suit them fine
I can’t think of a team that won Cup or Cups just by having more skill and reg season producers. Maybe the Pens? It usually takes a team with good top talent and warriors that can do their jobs defensively. The league changes the rules in playoffs so thuggery has a bigger role. It’s been that way forever
The Oilers matched the Panthers just fine in 2024 and I contend that the Oiler would have won the Cup had Drai not been playing on one leg.
They may have. But going down 3 zip says something, and they couldn’t generate much in game 7
I also think if Holland had done better they also would have. They had a lot of players not performing outside of injury, because they aren’t that good, that round the talent dragged them there. But this round Maurice sewed the talent up even while the Oilers D was better. I felt it was mostly on the forwards
I was just listening to some old audio of Rod Phillips back in the early 80’s and it still gave me goosebumps of his calls especially Gretzky breaking Esposito records etc. This team is fun to watch I’m so glad we get 8 more years of Leon and his brilliant passing and sneaky shot. Regardless of what happens on McDavid resigning or moving on in a blockbuster trade. I do have faith in Bowman and his team to keep this franchise on the rails for the next decade.
If Podkolzin is your 2LW you have forward depth issues. I love the player but he is 24 and can’t score.
The big FA winger addition was a 3/4 liner for Washington last year.
This a problem.
From what I’ve read, even if the counting stats weren’t great in washington, mangiapane was still helping to drive play in the right direction. He was also stapled to an offensive black hole in Eller. Decent reason to think he should be able to step it up given previous success as a top 6 forward.
I agree that Podkolzin and Savoie would ideally be breaking in lower down the lineup. That said, Podz actually did quite well with draisaitl (see Godot’s post below) and didn’t seem out of place there. In fact, I’d say he was one of the few players who still looked like they could keep up with florida as the games went on. If Savoie can keep up with those two, dig out some pucks and get them to draisaitl, I think there’s a template there for a strong outscoring line.
Podz & Kapanen were good wingmen for Leon. I would imagine Savoie is at least as skilled as Kapanen maybe even more. Savoie has the speed and hockey IQ to keep up with Podz & Leon.
Does Podz as 2LW signal forward depth if Nuge is 3LW or does that suggest they are taking style and fit in to account?
ALOT of context missing regarding Mangiapane’s season last year.
Nuge will more than likely be the 3c.
Mangiapane I heard prefers RW so he might end up with Leon & Podz. Henrique may very well be Connors LW. It’s all speculation at this point.
Mangiapane said strait up to Stauffer last week that he prefers LW.
A couple of thoughts:
Cam Talbot once again an Oiler??? Wonder if that’s the goalie to help pair and push Skinner
If lineup “Balance” is the goal. What does each line need?
Distributor/transporter of puck
Crash and banger to get it
Sniper to score
Adding in some defensive acumen for at least 1 if not 2 per line (why Skinner rarely got trusted, not enough other Defensive minded forwards to play with him on a line).
Mangiapane and Savoie all have defensive awareness. So does Frederic. So without Kane and Skinner, you can now have a better two way lineup.
Henrique-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisatl-Savoie
Mangiapane-Nuge-Frederic (this is as close a match for Florida’s 3rd line)
Janmark-Philp/Lazar-Kapanen
My preferred most “balanced’ lineup
What makes you think Henrique can be a first line winger?
From Natural Stat Trick 5-on-5
Podkolzin Draisaitl (no McDavid)
470min 57GF% 62xGF% 58SCF% 3.06/60
Draisaitl (no Podkolzin, no McDavid)
305min 53GF% 47xGF% 49SCF% 1.97/60
Podkolzin (no Draisaitl, no McDavid)
461min 32GF% 54xGF% 55SCF%
Draisaitl is clearly better with Podkolzin (eliminating McDavid).
Good things were happening on the ice with Podkolzin (without Draisaitl and McDavid), except on the scoreboard.
I’m not really into analytics, per se. Please don’t take that as some kind of criticism of them and I get that this is a fairly heavy analytics blog. All good. I also understand that they have value. So let’s say Podz played 82 games with Draisitl and got 17-18 minutes per night, with essentially no PP time. Would he be a 20-40-60 player, who is strong defensively?
Pts/60 can be misleading I think. Pod had 24 points last season, he played a lot with Leon, he’s not a great offensive player. He’s 24 so this is him essentially. ‘Normal’ players can have good seasons but usually stick around the same production over time. Pod can play with Leon which is good, and does a lot of work on the line which is good, frees up Leon
Lines need balance, and although Leon can play with anyone as LT points out, ideally when you have players like Leon and Connor you want players that can produce which could help drive all the players production higher. I commented last season that on Connor’s line each player has had years of higher goals but in two seasons I looked at the line only scored 3 more goals, they were trading who got them. If you had a better 5v5 player in Nuge’s spot the line might get more goals overall
But the cap. Adding an offensive talent like Savoie would help Leon, and Pod could be the defensive conscience and puck retriever if there isn’t a better offensive player to use
Thanks for this. I do understand sample size, regression etc., but also wonder why he got 24 pts playing significant minutes with one of the top 2 playmakers in the world. Again, do we expect him to pop offensively this season if he plays a lot with Draisiatl?
I don’t think he will, but he might have some seasons that are up. To my eye he doesn’t have the offensive instincts of a scorer. He has a pretty good shot but doesn’t get into position to use it enough
I like him plenty just the same. When he was drafted the way he is was the book on him from what I’ve read. A Cup team needs players like him, who win their shifts and go full tilt all of the time
Podz also had 10 points in 22 playoff games, playing mostly with Janmark and then Arvidsson – I’m not sure there isn’t offensive development still to come.
Of note, Savoie is also a smart and hard-working 2-way player – of course, being a very good defensive player at the AHL level does not equate to being a solid defensive player at the NHL level right away but its in his game for sure.
I don’t think anyone here would project Podz to have the offensive pop this coming season that Holloway had last season but I think there is value to discussing their playoff runs with the Oilers.
Many thought that Holloways looked ready to pop based off of last season’s playoffs, however, facts are:
1) Podz produced more points in less games played in this year’s playoffs than Holloway in last year’s playoffs.
2) Podz produced those points playing less minutes with Drai than Holloway did in the prior year’s playoffs.
3) Podz was a more physical player than Holloway in their respective playoffs years (25 hits/60 to 18 hits/60).
4) Podz was a much more reliable 2-way player.
5) Podz helped on the PK in a depth role – Holloway did not.
Now, I’m not saying that Podz is going to pop in the same way as Holloway did but the facts are that he was much better in this year’s playoff run than Holloway was in last year’s and Podz comes with top 10 pick pedigree.
I’m not closing the door on continued offensive progression from this player and I do think his overall game will continue to develop and impress – I think we can rest assured, of all players, Podz will work his ass off.
6) Podz isn’t injury prone.
7) Podz also out performed Foegele’s Oiler runs by a kilometer.
68.75 GF% 5v5 these playoffs. WF got clobbered his last two Oiler seasons
I was a big fan of Podz last year and thought that he was one of the best Oilers in terms of meeting/exceeding expectations. I also felt he didn’t take a night off all year. Dogged, determined, and incredible work ethic and motor, as they say. With that said, I would be delighted by an offensive surge, I am just not sure I see the evidence of it. Some players are around it a lot and you think they got goalied, etc. I felt like Podz did a lot of things right, but seemed shy offensively – he had a few good looks, but they were few and far between. I thought he was good at getting in hard on the forecheck, but sometimes I feel like the Oilers don’t have a great way to capitalize on that energy with the way they play (not enough net-front presence). I realize that maybe the numbers don’t point to that being the case, really, and there are folks smarter than me (OP) who probably disagree, but this is a gut-feel, by-eye thing for me. I really hope I am wrong, though. Would love to see him pop this year and I do think it could happen with greater confidence and more comfort with the team.
The thing I will say about the Holloway situation is that Holloway switched teams. This has got to be a pretty sizeable factor as well. The new linemates, structure, coach, etc. could have been major contributors. Not to mention that he would have been extremely motivated based on what happened.
Anyways, I think it’s still apples to oranges. Different player types, different situations.
But I’ll be rooting for Podz, nonetheless, and do think he will be a valuable part of the team, just not sure he gets 60+ points or whatever…
This is all fair and a very good posts.
As I mentioned, I don’t think anyone projects Podz to break out like Holloway did:
1) Holloways’ breakout came after putting up 7 points in 25 playoff games while playing mostly with Kane and then Drai (131 minutes with Drai)
2) Podz just put up 10 points in 22 playoff games while playing the majority of his 5 on 5 minutes with Janmark and Arvidsson and 82 minutes with Drai
Different types of players for sure.
I think we focus on points too much sometimes. As you said the overall quality of play is the most important thing – outscoring. That hard work, attention to detail, and fearlessness leads to points when things are at their hardest, as we saw with Pod being a top 5v5 Oiler scorer in the SCF
But does Podz really want to improve? Actually, it was mentioned during games this year how he is the first on the ice in practice and working hard on skills.
I think the answer is, then, yes, he does want to improve. I also think this was appreciated by the vets.
I am fairly adamant that Savoie get a real opportunity on Drai’s right wing – I think their skill-sets will make for a great long term duo.
I have no issue with Podz being on the LW and, in fact, in seems to make sense.
If Podz is in the top 6, the question becomes if they are ready to move Nuge out of the top 6 wing to the 3rd line as Bowman has been very clear Mangiapane will be playing with Connor or Leon (at least to start).
They would have the “3 center third line” in Henrique, Nuge and Frederic.
Where would that leave Tomasek if he comes as advertised, an offensive contributor?
The one thing we may need to account for here is the potential that Hyman isn’t ready to start the season.
It’s all been hush-hush with Hyman’s injury. From what I have heard is that he dislocated his wrist. I’ve had dislocated fingers, and they were not too serious
But wrists might be something else. Hopefully his surgery was a success, and he isn’t
effected adversely for the remainder of his career.
There was tendon damage, I hope he has a full recovery
Funny enough, Hyman just spoke at his annual charity golf tourney (brief excerpt up on TSN.ca now). He reported to be feeling good, cast is off in a couple of weeks and excited to get back on the ice. He didn’t put a clear timeline on full recovery but did say he was hopeful to be ready to go for the start of camp.
What Stan Bowman thinks the deployment will be vs how Knoblauch actually deploys the players are two different thing. Knobs didn’t like either of Skinner and Arvidsson even though they were clearly signed to be Leon’s wingers.
Sure, fair enough, however, I am confident that Knob was involved in discussion with Bowman regarding Mangiapane and projected usage.
I would also note Arvy’s LONG runway with Drai despite underwhelming results – coach was reluctant to move off of the Drai/Arvy plan.
I was looking at this the other day and, if one controls for no McDavid, there is solid upwards bump in the Drai with Podz vs. the Drai without Podz number – not quite a wash.
Bowman mentioned this about Mang, that he keeps plays alive. For players like Connor and Leon that is huge, keeping them in the offensive zone and able to get them the puck. I think Pod does that for Leon
Hyman does that for Connor, I would like to see each line have a better scorer to improve the lines. Could be Savoie and perhaps Mang with Connor