The Edmonton Oilers have a roster that can be described as complete, but there are things that general manager Stan Bowman could add if opportunity avails.
Most have their eyes on the goaltending position and of course the Oilers have expressed interest in an upgrade. In the words of the brilliant philosophy group Essex, easier said than done.
If we use the past three regular seasons (2000 mins minimum) of five-on-five save percentage, Oilers starter Stuart Skinner (.914) sits No. 31, tied with Joonas Korpisalo, Adin Hill, Karel Vejmelka and just ahead of Jordan Binnington.
Among the 30 goaltenders ahead of Skinner, most won’t be available this or any other summer.
Juuse Saros (.916) is often mentioned as an Oilers target, his cap hit is $7.74 million. Edmonton could get him (in terms of cap) by dealing Skinner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Does anyone like that one?
Cam Talbot ($2.6 million) is an interesting name, he delivered a .916 save percentage over the past three seasons. His cap hit is reasonable ($2.5 million) and he was a successful Oilers stopper before the club ran him ragged. I like the option, age being the worry.
Calvin Pickard (.918) seems as good as any in this group, the Oilers don’t have to go far to get him. The list is here. Every day in the comments section there are posters begging for a saviour to rise from these streets. I think Samuel Jonsson has as good a chance as any to become the next Oilers starter, but he hasn’t played a game of AHL-NHL hockey.
This is where scouting could help. I’ve mentioned Michael DiPietro many times, we’ll see if he shakes loose. Oilers have a new goalie guru, maybe he’s a Skinner whisperer. I’m in favour of all experiments that involve improving the team without chasing Saros to replace Pickard.
Sometimes you’re hooked and the safe play is the smart one. Bowman should keep his powder dry until a real opportunity to improve arises.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk goaltending, the look of the defence and a couple of outlier prospects who could contribute this season. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
Skinner is only 26. What goalies in the league are younger and better? Oettinger, Skinner out dueled him 2 years in a row in the WCF. Swayman? Skinner just had a better year. Those two are only younger by days and months.
UPL in Buffalo is a year younger, but also had a worse year.
no other starter in the league is younger, or makes less than Skinner, other than Dustin Wolf. We’ll see what happens with him next year.
Im willing to see what happens with Skinner this year. He’s young and cheap. Not sure you can find better value in the league in a goalie right now with the potential to still improve.
Something I’ve been wondering about is the talk (Stauffer) that the oilers will look to free up more cap space this offseason so they can accrue up to 8M in space for around the deadline.
Odds are the 8M accrued figure is just coincidence based on the likely contract they may be able shed this offseason (Janmark or Henrique). But what if not just a coincidence and its tied to a larger plan and specific trade target(s) at the deadline?
Well, Sorokin (8.25M), Swayman (8.25M) and Saros (7.74M) all fall in line with that 8M number. Some smoke exists around all 3 potentially being available too. Hmm.
Oilers can’t fit any of them in now, but could at the deadline with accured space and then make it fit under the cap going forward. This would also give some time to evaulate how Skinner responds this year (and/or if Jonsson miraculously emerges rapidly). And see how Swayman and to a lesser extent Saros play after rough seasons last year. With the additional info and cap flexibility, proceed accordingly.
The acquistion cost would probably be uncomfortably substantial though, especially for Sorokin or a rebounded Swayman. I would likey pay the high cost for Sorokin, but not so sure about the others.
Of course, having that much cap space at the deadline could also just provide the flexibility to act if a big name skater becomes available like Rantanen or Miller last year. Or to add mutiple mid level pieces.
In any case, I like trying to go into the season around 2M under the cap if possible.
LT put it best and succinctly above:
“Bowman should keep his powder dry until a real opportunity to improve arises.”
I think it’s clear Skinner is on notice now – the active search for an upgrade is on. I am on board with that provided the mantra above followed.
What would Skinner need to do by next deadline to re-establish himself as the solution for the Oilers? Or is the die already cast?
For me, growth in his fundementals/ technique along with delivering a season like 2022-2023 with more consistently stable play game-to-game (better QS%, less peaks and valleys) would have me thinking.
There is also the question whether Skinner would want to stick around even if the Oilers wanted him too – the unfortunate toxicity leveled at him and family may have him looking for a reset elsewhere anyway.
Perusing the RFA’s who weren’t re-signed, Luke Prokop stands out. Edmontonian, large human RHD, 23 Years old. Not many games in the AHL over past 2 seasons, but looks like Milwaukee played defence almost by committee this past season, where 10 dmen played 20 or more games. Prokop played 31.
He’s only played 2 pro seasons, mostly ECHL and his year over year stats appear to show progression. There are lots of smallish defenders in Bakersfield, I wonder if the Oilers would dare to sign him.
It does not matter who they put in net. If Oilers can’t defend the slot the goalie won’t make a difference.
Gi back and watch our puck moving defenders as the defender the slot in a haphazard stick waiving effort. Sometimes it looks pretty good.
Unitl you compare it to Panthers D who defending like their lives depended on it.
That factor combined with an overzealous shut down of Connor and Leon is Oilers kryptonite.
1000%
There seems to be the potential for more young, non-established goalies with some potential upside to be available, and for cheap/free. Silovs was one but DePietro and Nico Daws are two others.
I understand taking the chance given the potential upgrade but, at the same time, none of them have proven to be able to do what Cal Pickard has over the last season and a half. To this point, they are objectively inferior NHL options.
Claiming or trading for (prior to clearing waivers) is not risk free because it would come in conjunction with waiving the established vet and, there is no certainty he’ll clear (nor that he’ll get claimed – could go either way, really).
Can the Oilers risk losing Pickard to see if a 24-25 year old may finally stick in the NHL?
Yes.
I think they can, and, ultimately, are going to have to make this decision whether it’s in October or March (or anytime in between)
If you believe running back the same duo for the entirety of next season is the path forward, you’re all set…you’ve got your goalies and that’s all there is to it.
If you believe an upgrade is required, at some point there is going to be goalie in, and a goalie out.
The Oilers will have to trust their pro scouts and complete a transaction when they believe they have identified an upgrade
I’m on record as suggesting they keep Skinner and acquire a Pickard upgrade (however you quantify that). I’d prefer they do that this summer, and if they have still have goalie problems in March, they can address it at the deadline
Its seems like the potential waiver wire goalie acquisitions, while having some potential upside, are far from locked in upgrades on Pickard – that would be quite the risk.
Getting out of bed comes with risks
You have to trust your scouts
Correct me if I’m wrong – it happens more tthan I like but less than my ex wife claims. The new rule in the CBA extennsion regarding proximity of muliple retained salary transactions doesn’t take effect until next season, no? So do we have a strategic window, if needed, to get double retention on a player on a deal done this season? It might make such a deal more likely in general this year if teams see a transaction that only becomes palatable under double retention that will no longer be feasible next offseason for example…
Thoughts?
Correct, as far as I know, none of the changes are being implemented early.
Hmmmm! I wonder what effect that will have on the marketplace over his season… might make things interesting!
Wow. I asked a technical question, you gave a straightforward answer, yet three people downvoted you? Me no understand…
Lots of good suggestions regarding who to consider as a 1B goalie for Skinner to split time, and keep him rested. Some are grizzled veterans, some are up and comers with great potential. Others like maintaining the status quo and keeping Picks and his locker room presence. Maybe wait and see how the regular season plays out with the same duo and a new goalie coach.
The problem is the concerns have nothing to do with the regular season. Our goaltending has been adequate to good in the regular season, enough to get us in the playoffs. The problem has soley been what happens to Skinner in the playoffs…nothing that happens in the regular season actually address the primary concern. Like someone mentioned, he has been pulled in 15% (!!) of his playoff starts. No matter what happens in the regular season this year will you be confident playing him in the post season? Will Knoblauch? WILL CONNOR?
This is why I don’t agree that it is an issue of Skinner being more rested. The problem with Skinner, IMO, is his mental strength. Every goalie allows a few stinkers. My issue with Skinner is that his come at absolutely crucial moments, like he cannot handle the pressure. How many Cup winning goaltenders do you recall needing a reset as often as he has? Is it anxiety from the weight of the moment? If it is, this is not the trait of a goaltender that will help you win a Stanley. Obviously just one man’s opinion but witnessing the last two playoff runs leads me to that conclusion. I don’t know if a goalie coach can help with this but I believe that our chance to win it all depends on it.
— yeah that 15% shocked me games pulled.
— Skinner “won” the real bad starts this playoffs : 7 games with sv% under 85%
— In 2024 he also “won” with 6 RBS. To be fair Bob had 5 but Bob also had wicked good (+ cup)
— In 2023, the only year Skinner didn’t “win” in the award for most bad starts in playoff career he was 2nd worst in real bad starts with 5.
— skinner is a really bad goalie in playoffs. STOP.
Take away his first year and he’s a below 900 goalie. The league has figured him out which is make him move to make a save. This is why he can’t stop a breakaway when the opposing player has time to make him look like a rented mule.
.
I love the guy, but would I be on an island by myself if I suggested a hockey trade that brought in a goaltender in exchange for Ekholm. He’ll be 36 when his next contract starts, and his play is standing at the edge of a cliff and looking down right now.
Imagine any team bringing in Ekholm would be doing so to compete in the playoffs, trading their tenders out for him doesn’t seem feasible.
This would be the Miika Kiprusoff angle. Someone who’s got a goalie to spare
A team like Detroit or Minnesota might be interested in return for their prospect goalies. I suspect Ekholm will be extended by Edmonton before Christmas anyway, and I don’t have any qualms about that. I just think Walman, Nurse and Kulak is plenty on the LHD if they can also bring in a capable 2nd pair RHD.
I suggested the same to my hockey buddies and was crucified
I think LT’s old line “the absence of (viable) alternatives clears the mind” works pretty well here.
Stay the course, keep your powder dry.
No drama when the powder is dry.
While most of the game is played 5v5, it seems our poor PK has been leading to many key losses. Given that Skinner’s save percentage is reasonable 5v5, I’m assuming it is poor and possibly poor historically 4v5 (sorry, not in a place to look it up right now!). I do believe the adage that a goalie is your best PKer, the question is how much of a 4v5 save percentage is repeatable?
Biggest shocker on the list for me is Daccord. Didn’t realize his sv% was that high over the last 3 years
OMG! Such a sane & sober look at the goaltending situation. Hallelujah!
Still, the unbelieving will cry for the messiah, eyes blinded to the fact of his presence in our midst.
The Oilers need to bring in a younger goalie like Arturs Silvos to play back up to Skinner. I like Pickard but his ceiling is too low. We are never going to find any good young goalies unless we take a chance on some. Maybe a small trade or waiver pickup in the fall. If it doesn’t work out then get a veteran goalie at the deadline.
I like Silovs. His ceiling is exceptionally high. A little bit too much demanded of him (situational too, initially expected to be Demko’s understudy, not his replacement).
Ceiling is exceptionally high based on what though?
5th/6th round pick that is 24 and has had zero success in the NHL and, until his hot run in the playoffs this season, middling success in the AHL.
Maybe there is some upside there but, today, right now, he’s objectively interior to Cal Pickard and wouldn’t play ahead of him.
Silovs:
MVP when Latvia won the IIHL tournament in 2023. He was 22ish, took net from Elvis Mz.
Played very well against Nashville and Oilers in 2024 playoffs. Kept net after DeSmith returned from injury in that run.
MVP with Memorial Cup winning Aldergrove Canucks in 2025. Just turned 24.
I like watching the World Championships but can we not agree that performances in that tournament really mean nothing with respect to the NHL? Goalie Leonardo Genoni was MVP of that tournament a few months ago.
Nope, Silovs was not good in the playoffs in 2024 – he had a couple decent games against the Oilers and a couple absolutely awful games.
He did just have a great AHL playoff run – again, somewhat meaningless – short hot streaks from goalies are what they are.
Silovs has had zero success in his NHL opportunities and generally been fairly meh in the AHL.
He may have some NHL upside but he’s objectively inferior to both Oilers goalies right now.
I would love to see Jonsson get a real chance in pre-season to show where he is at.
He’ll likely play in the split squad game and maybe another appearance but, if nothing else, the smaller ice will take getting used to.
I imagine he’s assigned prior to the 2nd week of camp.
I have soured on Skinner over the last season. That being said, never thought I’d say this, I believe that we should wait and see what happens with what our new goaltending coach can do for Skinner’s game. Maybe he is able to unlock a more consistent Skinner. My concern with Skinner has been his mental strength, it’s not just a bad goal against but when it happens. I don’t know if a goalie coach can help with that but what do I know.
He reminds me of many people in other various fields who were put in too high a position too early. They got there because of their underlying skill and dedication, but part of me is deeply impressed with what he has accomplished. Any number of goalies would not have been able to will themselves through the gauntlet he’s just been playing though, given he should only now be looking at the starters net after having mentored under (Jack Campbell?) a true starter for a couple years. I agree- let’s see if a new coach can help.
— that’s probably the path of least resistance (and given for 10 years they kept the same goalie coach it is their DNA)
— Skinner has been a very poor goalie in the playoffs as measured by Goals Saved Above Average : probably the worst with a -12.5 over the last 3 playoff seasons. That’s really bad
— He’s started 50 playoff games, been yanked 15% (7) of those games
— He was brutal in 2 of 5 games this final and had one decent game
— was also not helping last year when they went down 3-0 then the team just played awesome and he didn’t help in game 7
— he can be ok when the team is dialled in: but certainly never relied on to me the most important player on the ice. He also doesn’t bail them out often in playoffs.
— Maybe in his 4th playoff season he finds it
— who knows maybe the new coach can unlock him as I referenced Popkins has with the Jays hitting approach which is certainly improved
— I’d be dismayed if they dont bring in another goalie however this off season. Virtually certain they will (or maybe that’s just blind hope: thinking I know better than the organization what to do)
— Just some more context using GSAA:
1) In 2023 Skinner GSAA was -6.92. Only 1 goalie was worse (Vanecek)
2) In 2023 he was only 5th worst by same measure (although most below were 1st out)
3) this year there were 27 goalies that had starts in playoffs. Stuart was 24th
— Been a big negative value for team in playoffs. Not a debate. Numbers don’t lie
— The only debate is how much of a difference was how bad he has been to our Cup aspirations : Just playoff average goalie and things probably different….
— There has not been a worse goalie that has had more than 5 starts per playoffs for the last three years.
— Sure maybe the pool isn’t huge as most teams haven’t been in playoffs last 3 years
— But he’s the worst “repeat offender”
— Hope for better year 4 but his track record in playoffs has let the team down big time
— Not saying there aren’t other issues of course but very dissatisfied once I started looking into the numbers.
Woodley said yesterday that Skinner and Hellybuck are similar in style. Narrow butterfly, big guys but Stu is quite a bit heavier. Helley of course is better and his game is based on anticipation
Woodley also has said the Jets gave Helley the best environment on the ice for a goalie in the league last season. Helley has had two poor playoffs in a row, Stu has also struggled
Maybe it’s playoff hockey that that style doesn’t suit. Big guys that block net need a tight D structure that is predictable, and that perhaps is easier to do game in and out reg season. When they have to move laterally things get sloppy
Bob is good laterally and on the ice, Woodley says the best in the league. Most times you have to have puck movement and top third of the net to beat him. I don’t think in this era the Oilers will ever be a lock down team, even if they are far better defensively and can do it in games and for stretches
I’m not for doing anything with Stu without a clear high percentage chance at a better player. Stu might grow a bit, the new goalie coach is said to be innovative and that might help, still I think he’s about at his ceiling. Bob had higher SV% same age overall, so did Vas, so did Sorokin playing over around 30 games. If he was in that range he’d be there now
I think Pick is a great guy, and put up some decent numbers and had a good win percentage, but there are better goalies than him. He’s to my eye pretty loose in his style and may need too much luck to be good enough. He didn’t have it the last game he played
But it still may be they need a starter with a different style that suits what is going to happen in front of him better. I’m thinking a guy who isn’t as heavy and moves better without losing his set. No idea who that is it’s too hard to suss out but Woodley has said some names I can’t remember
In this case the numbers are lying to you.
If you want to use GSAA, you need to look at Skinner’s rates (GSAA/60, which basically tracks SV%). Skinner is showing very low GSAA in the playoffs because he has a less than average save percentage but played the third most games over the 3 year selection in NST (50 games, most was Bobrovsky over this period with 66).
When you compare GSAA vs Vanacek, (counts, not rates) it’s an unfair comparison. Need to use rates. Using rates, Skinner is much better. Vanacek played 7 games and was -1.86 GSAA across 7 games. Skinner was -0.34 GSAA/60 across 50 games. During this same period Hellebuyck was -.93 GSAA/60 across 23 games.
So, as measured by GSAA/60 across these three playoffs Skinner was better than Vezina winning Hellebuyck in the playoffs by a mile, over a much larger sample.
I understand that 5×5 save percentage is a solid tool when identifying NHL calibre goaltenders. I also understand that “the eye test” can be harder to develop for goaltenders than for any other position — especially for the team you love and cheer for. But these numbers cannot be ignored.
Maybe someone can correct me, but if you’re comfortable using expected goals for in evaluating a player, then you can’t turn around and completely ignore GSAA when addressing goaltenders.
Skinner is a good NHL goaltender, but one who does not excel in the playoffs when competing against the strongest teams in the NHL. He can underperform when his team is playing excellent hockey in front of him, and he hasn’t displayed a consistent ability to make up the difference when the Oilers are outplayed for any length of time.
I don’t expect the OIlers’ goaltender to make impossible saves — the tap-in after a brilliant backdoor pass is going to go in 99.9% of the time. But a goaltender cannot consistently be the reason their team loses games in which they carry the majority of the play. And it’s also part of a goaltender’s responsibility is to keep their team in games when being outplayed. Again, within reason — I’m not asking for Hasek.
Is that too much to ask for? Or is a goaltender’s play utterly dependent on their team playing flawless hockey?
GSAA has nothing to do with expected goals, or GSAx. They are two different things. Here is the definition of GSAA:
“GSAA – Goals Saved Above Average, the difference between the goalie’s Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average SV% (within the selected filters). Average SV%*Shots Against – Goals Against”
Skinner was better than expected in all situations by 4.5 goals, and at expected 5v5 using Moneypuck’s model in the 2024-2025 playoffs.
I think I bought into HOPE back in the day and promised myself I wouldn’t get excited for a prospect until I saw them deliver in the NHL but after watching all the clips I can find of Howard’s release and offensive vision, he seems Matthew’s-lite and my July imagination of how he could transform the top 6 and even the pp have me looking forward to this roster.
This summer Edmonton needs to have their Berlin years. Bowie, U2, whatever you like: shake off the Florida disasters and come in with a new look. They could surprise.
Actually I think it’s more U2 than Bowie. Last season was definitely a Rattle & Hum season.
This is where scouting (and analytics) can help a team. We don’t know if Bowman’s unproven acquisitions can do it, but I do think Howard is a player who offers the potential to help in scoring goals. We’ll see. I’m nore up than downbeat on him.
I hope they let him loose. Prospects like this are chomping at the bit and if he’s truly cocky, play into it. I fear KK may wish to have him work up from L3… the season is long, let him run with the big dogs for a while off the bat.
I’m all for this, however, if we do end up with Nuge playing 3C then I’m also fine with one of him or Savoie starting out there. That’s a pretty high quality centreman to be working with in possibly easier minutes.
I’m liking that we have options though, plenty of proven options for the top 6 and then fall back options that can move up from the 3rd line if needed.
I think assuming Howard and Savoie start the season on the roster, Nuge has to be 3C – which is great. Maybe Savoie could start there, I want to put this cocky American to the test. Hobey Baker, World Junior (should have been) MVP, held out on Tampa (!) to force a trade to play with Edmonton. Balls in your court, hot shot. If he gets fed some humble pie, then drop him to 3C, let Nuge show him a few things.
From what I’ve learned over the last while, its more “confident” than “cocky”. Apparently he’s a “good kid”, works hard, wants to improve, etc.
From Knob’s one-verbal this off-season, I think its Savoie that will need to earn his way up from the 3rd line and Howard that Knob sees more immediate offence in.
I hope he gives Savoie the offensive chances – he’s actually produced against pro men.
I don’t “mind” if he’s “cocky” or “confident”, to me that’s “splitting heirs”.
Fair but, to me, there is a clear different connotation as between the two terms.
Start by reducing Skinners role and playing him with Picks in a true tandem.
I almost want them to adopt a pitch count approach, maybe play the hot hand but let’s see what Pickard can do with a larger load and equally how Skinner fares without the expectation of a #1: let him catch up to his development curve.
Cross the bridge again at the deadline.
If I was coach I would do crazy shit like move Nurse to F and play the goalies in a starter (picks) closer (skins) rotation. Bring in the reliever for the third if close or down.
No comment on Nurse. But I’ve long believed that treating goalies more like MLB pitchers (w a lot less drama about relieving) might calm a lot of nerves (fans, goalies, GMs, etc) and lead to more long term stability for the position and the team. So I like your suggestion. It’s a gutsy move. Fans will hate it (goalie is a convenient scapegoat ).
This is exactly where I am. Roll Picks more to see if he can handle the increased load, Stu plays less and potentially benefits. If that works, then MUSIC!
If Picks can’t handle the increased number of games and Stu does indeed improve then we have our answer. Find a 1B goalie to pair with Stu and that can likely be your Cam Talbot or A.N.Other type goalie. This is where I saw Jake Allen as an option until he signed that low cap hit long term deal with the Devils right out of the gate on Free Agency Frenzy day.
I’m also excited to see how Jonsson does in N.America but I’m not going to dump pressure on him to be in the NHL this season, or even next. I know we’re down on slow playing prospects but I’m fine with letting a goalie acclimate a touch before he is expected to win in the big leagues.
What about James Reimer on a PTO or league min deal?
He’s consistently over .900 and has the ability to “take over the net” for stretches in case of injury or struggle.
Is he a locked upgrade on Pickard? Would it be enough of an upgrade vis-a-vis losing Pickard’s locker room presence?
LT, given the recent changes, I’d love to discuss the coaching staff construction as opposed to roster construction.
Go for it!
Lookng forward to reading your takes. I have names and not much else to go on. Honestly. It’s a vague area.
well, that’s all I got too 🙂
I came for the meal and the desert too