Much of what Stan Bowman wants to do with the current Oilers roster relies on other teams and willingness to make changes in August and September. There are things that could get done. He needs a trade partner and there are no clear upgrades on the horizon.
If I were to guess at the roster today, it would be Stuart Skinner with Calvin Pickard as backup in goal; Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse-Jake Walman and Brett Kulak-Troy Stecher/Ty Emberson on defense. Oh, you could see Atro Leppanen or Alec Regula on the opening night roster if there’s an injury, but the defense looks set. I like the top four, as presented, very much. Health is always a concern, but a healthy top four as listed would be a strong unit.
I have Andrew Mangiapane-Connor McDavid-Zach Hyman plus Vasily Podkolzin-Leon Draisiatl-Matt Savoie as the second line. My third line is Ike Howard-Nuge-Trent Frederic and you could see a lot of shuffling of second- and third-line wingers.
Fourth line would be Adam Henrique at center, Mattias Janmark at left wing and Kasperi Kapanen on right wing. Curtis Lazar the extra and I think David Tomasek either takes Matt Savoie’s job or is in the AHL/back home.
For those who want an upgrade on Skinner, suspect there will be a delay between today and the next Edmonton starter. The cap, the lack of availability on a clear upgrade, and the Oilers lack of quality assets to use in trade all contribute to the current situation. The concerns about goaltending have merit, the solutions to those concerns are going to take some work. Suspect some of the expensive veterans will be asked to waive next summer, perhaps one or two will agree.
Noon to 2pm today on Sports 1440, it’s the Lowdown. Kevin McCurdy will join me at 1, we’ll have lots of Elks, Jays and NBA talk (Declanations). Join me, Declan Krueger and Josh Fenwick, won’t you?
What else can the Edmonton Oilers get done this offseason?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6496619/2025/07/16/edmonton-oilers-news-offseason-2025/
Just read a piece on Aubry, new goalie coach. The writer suggests his biggest impact with NHL goalies to date has been with Euro goalies. Bodes well for the three Euro goalie prospects in the Oilers system. I’d drop the link here but I’m unsure of protocol. Lmk if that’s welcome and I’ll add.
Not sure how much Aubrey will be able to work with any of the Euros in the near future given he’s the NHL goalie coach and they will be playing in various other leagues – I’m sure they’ll relationship will start at rookie camp and them main camp (well, to the extent the goalies come over and attend – I’m sure Jonsson will but don’t know about the others.
He was on Gregor and I liked his take on things. His focus is on bigger picture things more than technical. Reading the play and let the body connect itself. He did mention a way he uses to make adjustments if needed, and again it’s about adjustments to create a new way for the body to connect itself and practice it until it happens in games
To me that sounds like something that might help Stu. When he’s off he looks disconnected and his technique goes, holes everywhere, over rotation, late. Here’s hoping
A thought: SV% has become a go-to, shorthand measure of goalie skill/magic. How about we expect our forwards to meet similar standards when it comes to Shooting /Scoring %? Or maybe just the top six?
I’m only halfway jesting…
ESPY for NHL Player of the Year: Leon Draisaitl
I don’t think Lazar plays more than 10 games for the Oilers this year. He’s destined for the AHL.
With the newly added wingers, it makes sense to finally slide Nuge down to 3C. It’s where we all assumed he’d be at at this point in his contract. It’s still an important position and allows him to contribute in a significant way, while also allowing guys like mangiapane and one of Savoie/Howard to move up to the top 6. It also slots Henrique down to 4C, which is a good spot for him and leaves him as decent insurance for injuries.
Basically, this whole roster makes more sense with Nuge at 3C. Hopefully the coaches agree
Somehow I think they want to fit one or two RHC’s into the scheme of things. Mostly because of Philp, Lazar & Tomasek.. Not sure they want to use Henrique at center unless there’s no other choice.
I think there is the opportunity to move Nuge to 3C but I’m sure he’ll play plenty of top 6 wing – its likely a default formation if things are stale, etc.
Nuge had a strong playoffs – he’s not done yet.
I don’t think they plan on having Henrique on the 4th line – he could be shifted to wing in the top 9.
There has also been talk by management of wanting Frederic playing center.
Of course, Philp/Lazar factor in as well.
I’d like to see
Ekholm Bouch
Kulak Walman
Nurse Stetcher/Emberson
I think they should start with Nurse/Walman and go from there.
Ekholm/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Kulak/Emberson (Stech)
If Ekholm remains, well, not good
Kulak/Bouchard (7-1 goals in 150 minutes in the playoffs)
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Emberson (Stech).
I really hope Howard and Savoie get a long leash. The team needs some youthful energy and competition to push the vets during the regular season.
I love the lines.
I am very skeptical that Knobber will actually play RNH at 3C based on historical deployment.
The coaches also seemed to favour Kulak at RHD over Walman. Curious to see if that changes in the regular season.
Paul Coffey is no longer deploying the D and I suspect Stuart will take a better look at the actual results and see that Nurse/Walman had real regular season success (and also that Kulak/Bouchard had exceptional playoff success).
Coffey definitely upgraded the style asked of the D, I was surprised when Vinny said the ask before was too conservative and glass and out was a good play. We saw enough of that for sure
I did think at times that maybe he went a bit far in that, thinking they could all play more like he did. Bouch can and Ek when healthy, but overall there were too many mistakes, especially in the final. Maybe Stuart can find a better balance. D first
Stauff with an interesting note on the schedule – no eatern time zone games in the 2nd half.
First two months are beastly:
https://media.nhl.com/site/vasset/public/attachments/2025/07/19119/2025-26%20NHL%20Regular%20Season%20Schedule%20(By%20Club).pdf
Team bonding!
team is going to have to show up on time next season.
Hopefully although they now have proven that, well, they don’t have to show up on time and will still be just fine come mid-late April….
They need to do camp differently this year. Barring injuries there is no reason they shouldn’t play well most games. Even with some injuries, other teams do it. Commit to the system and play defensively always. Offense will still come. And if they can’t play defensively without tanking offense get a new coach because he’s asking for the wrong things
When I first read this, I automatically thought the league is paving the way to an Oilers cup win in 2026! Because conspiracy.
Then I thought, wait, the league hates us and wants us to start out flat (like the season before) and not be able to catch up and miss the playoffs. Because conspiracy.
And then Connor would possibly not sign an extension and move on. The league would then gift the cup, because conspiracy, to Connor’s new team and market the living beJesus out of him, the likes of which we have never seen.
I might be overthinking the schedule…
The existence of conspiracy theories imply the existence of conspiracy practices.
Skinner and Pickard are perfectly cromulent regular season goalies, so the deadline may be the ideal time to go goalie hunting, although the cost will obviously be higher if there’s a bidding war. If they can accrue enough cap space and/or play LTIR games for this year, the full cost of the acquired contract becomes next year’s problem.
The downside is not giving the new goalie much time to acclimate before the playoffs, so it better be worth it.
Worked with Roli ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
“Cromulent!” And perfectly so. It’s rare I get to expand my vocabulary in the sports pages – thank you.
There were lots of comments yesterday regarding GSAA. And it seems there may have been some confusion.
GSAA is not GSAx, and has nothing to do with expected goals. Here is the definition from NST:
”GSAA – Goals Saved Above Average, the difference between the goalie’s Goals Against and a Goals Against with the same Shots Against and the average SV% (within the selected filters). Average SV%*Shots Against – Goals Against”
— Hockey Reference uses GSAA : it is a like for like comparison. “The goals prevented given sv% and shots faced vs league average sv% on same # of shots”
— By this measure each year Skinner has been the amongst the worst last 3 years. It does not get influence by games played.
— Skinner is 15th out of 19 goalies who played more than 10 playoff games last 3 years in sv%
— prefer 5×5 ? He is 16 out of 19 last 3 years.
— he’s not a good goalie by any measure in the playoffs. He is without debate amongst the worst. Are you saying he is a good or even average playoff goalie?
— What are you looking up to support this?
— He’s been yanked 7 out of 50 playoff starts
— he’s accumulated the most really bad starts in 2 of 3 and was 2nd worse
— maybe the new coach helps. I’m pretty certain Bowman is not going to run it back again. Because Skinner is not a good playoff goalie.
trying to post but getting filtered. Sorry. I tried lots. Please ignore a good bunch of these LT.
— he faces less shots than any other goalie in playoffs only 2 goalies worse in terms of GSAA
— so you agree : he’s one of the worst playoff goalies since he’s been in playoffs
— Digging into the numbers objectively I came to the realization that Skinner has been a bad playoff goalie. There really isn’t much more that I can add.
— His play has let the team down by all measures I have looked up relative to his peers on other teams in 50 playoff games over 3 years
— Either hope Skinner does better or find better.
— I know as a manager that needs performance what I’d do. Same as most managers who have measurable outcomes that are tied to their on-going employment.
I can’t seem to write too much without getting filtered for approval. The metric as a rate shows him to be less than average and better than two Vezina winners. He’s played more than all goalies except for two that are considered elite.
I don’t agree with how you are using counts here. You need to use rates because of the variance in sample size. The large sample with the goalie in question makes him look worse than he is by counts. Use rates.
— his sv% is bottom 4 in playoffs last 3 years
— He has lots of really bad starts.
— He’s been yanked from 15% of playoff games
— Are you saying : “yeah these measures punish him because he’s played 50 playoffs games : more than most?”
— What stats do you use that might disabuse me of concluding that he’s really bad in playoffs
— I mistrust SV% as a defining stat. Goaltending is not voodoo (that’s a whole other brand of the unknown), but it certainly isn’t just SV%.
— Bad starts – how’s the finish?
— I suggest “relieved” rather than “yanked” (I know, there’s no emotional charge in relieving the goalie, but maybe having different expectations may make it easier to develop winning as opposed to punitive strategies).
— The fact he’s played so much and helped his team go so deep so often speaks to something. I’m not sure we have a statistical model for what that is.
— The most important stat, I’ll argue, is winning percentage.
By asking expensive veterans to waive next summer, do you mean Nurse again? Other players with full no move clauses are Drai, McDavid, (presumed) RNH, and Frederic. The first two won’t be asked, and I’d be pretty surprised if Nuge or Frederic were asked either.
Hyman, Mangiapane, and Janmark have modified no trade clauses so wouldn’t need to waive as long as the Oilers traded them to a team on their list.
That leaves Nurse, who reportedly refused to waive this year. As much heat as Nurse takes, I’m not quite there yet as far as wanting to move on from him. His regular season last year was quite good even if it fell apart again in the playoffs. I still believe he can be a solid second pair defenceman especially with a solid partner for the first time in his career in Walman. I know Nurse is also viewed by his contract as well as his play, but every year that the cap goes up, the deal gets a little better. I’m interested to see how he does this year, and if he puts together a solid season and playoff, I think I’d keep him.
I’d move on from Nurse only if they can cobble from it some cap efficiency to make the roster stronger overall. Don’t need a stud D back – if any – and the difference between the two salaries, if D in D out, maybe buys you a winger or a goalie.
In other words, I think it’s worth doing if worth doing.
Obviously our goaltending could have been better in the finals, but if we had less defensive breakdowns I don’t think we would have noticed. Marchant and others walked Ekholm and Walman a few times and our dzone coverage awareness lacked leading to high danger opportunities. For sure you would have liked a save on a few more of those, but if you minimize the crappy dzone play, the goaltending will “magically” improve in my view.
Hear hear! More sanity. Two days in a row! And after yesterday’s Finals summing up by LT (with chorus) on air, maybe it’s time to look forward to the unknowns that the summer and the season to come will bring.
Thank you.
The forwards were part of this – McDavid stands out as a player that made multiple major mistakes in the defensive zone that led to goals against. I’m not hear to bash the captain or say that he’s not good enough or committed or anything like that but facts are he had a poor SCF – well, not fact, but my opinion i guess.
I saw that too. It’s been suggested that at least some of that was down to the Floridian “filth.”
Does Janmark make this team on merit?
That overpay (AAV and term) while not huge is annoying, at least to me.
I’m not certain any of Lazar, Philp, Kapanen can’t do what he does, for cheaper (although Kap is overpaid by $300K himself).
In no world do I have Janmark playing over Savoie unless there is regression in Savoie’s game from last season in the AHL.
this.
A key here is Podz – if he can really settle in as Drai’s LW, this allows Nuge down to the 3rd line which provides really strength through the lineup.
Lets not for how strong Podz’s playoffs was. I like to compare his run this past year to Holloway the year before because we all loved what Holloway did and is preceeded a real pop:
Holloway had 7 points in 25 games (Podz had 9 points in 22 games)
Holloway played 130 minutes with Drai (Podz played 83 minutes with Drai)
Holloway was physical (Podz was MORE physical – Hits/60)
Podz was a more effective 2-way player
Podz helped on the PK, Holloway did not impact special teams.
No, I’m not saying that Podz will pop offensively like Holloway did but simply noting the strength of his playoff run as compared to Holloway pre-pop and I’m not ready to discount some more offensive development in Podz’s game….
I somewhat love those top 2 lines but, at the same time feel that Knob sees Howard as an “offensive player” and Savoie as a “2-way player” and could see Howard starting in the top 6 and Savoie at 3RW.
As much as I truly believe Savoie is a perfect fit for Drai and the long term 2RW to Drai on this team, I am not against him on a 3rd line with a strong center (Nuge it the above set-up) – he has that skill-set.
I just hope that Knob isn’t discounting Savoie’s offensive pedigree and the fact that he’s already had real offensive success at the pro level.
I wonder what the plan is for Frederic when first obtained I instantly thought shades of Patty Maroon. I really liked Frederic game in Boston but he looked a step late all playoff. He then signs the huge extension based on this player regaining his form. It’ll be very important to kick start Federic and get him on a 20 goal pace. Where is the best fit for this player and team?
There is no doubt he underperformed expectations in the playoffs and was “a step behind” but, of course, he was playing through a high ankle sprain the entire time.
I presume it was shot up/frozen, etc. and not easy to play through.
Its unfortunate that the injury just never healed more than it did last season – they knew that was a possibility, there was a range of timelines and they took the risk.
Quite a bit of talk, including from management, that they want him to play more center this season. That may signal that Nuge stays on the wing but, even so, with both Nuge and Henrique, its likely one is playing center on any given night – I don’t see Frederic on the fourth line.
Will be interesting but I’m hoping for near 20/25 seasons with some depth PK and his clear solid 2-way game and, of course, some truculence.
For me Howard starting out with two defensively aware forwards such as Nuge & Frédéric can only help the youngster with his transition to the NHL. I’m sure he’s excited with the notion of playing with Connor & Leon but that’s something that he will need to be prepped for. Savoie is better prepared already having some pro experience.
I don’t diagree but I still glean what I glean from Knob’s first verbal which is that he thinks of Howard as a dynamic offensive player that needs to play on the PP and of Savoie as a 2-way player than can help on the PK.
Until I see (or hear) otherwise…..
They certainly need goal scorers in the bottom six.
Agree with this – I see that opening 7 on defence as locked in (subject to injury) and the pairings pretty much locked in as well.
Nurse/Walman is clear to my eye – based on eye test and high level on-ice results during last year’s regular season. I know the coaching staff has “more information” than I do but I remain shocked that Coffey did not go there during the SCF.
The other option, in particular of Ekholm doesn’t resemble the Ekholm we all love, is:
Kulak/Bouchard
Nurse/Walman
Ekholm/Emberson (Stech)
Kulak/Bouchard were 7-1 goals in the playoffs in 151 minutes. Some luck there, of course, but they were also over 60% expected goals.
I don’t think that can/should be ignored.
Come on Alex R. – be healthy, hockey train this summer – you and Jarventie can play in this league if healthy.
Bowman has always valued above average goaltending no way he chances another year of our window with below average goaltending. Goaltender changes need to happen before training camp as very rarely goaltenders get acquired at the deadline excluding Rollie and play well.
I also value above average goaltending!
Maybe we need a save%/$ formula for goalies to keep the entire picture in view.
Pretty easy to “value above average goaltending” when you’ve got Corey Crawford to play 50 games with a .915-.930 every year……
Its not like Bowman was always going out and finding a new tender to give him that goaltending – he simply had it.
Interesting thing… Rollie the Goalie did NOT play well after the trade deadline UNTIL the playoffs. He had some pretty off nights finding his feet in the last 1/4 of the season… once he did, though, it was Grrrrreat!
I believe, as many suggest, that the rats used filth to win. Do the good guys have enough?
in my mourning I’ve come to accept injury and crappy PK as the primary culprits in the SCF this year. I honestly believe swapping Bob and Stuey would have still ended with the Cats on top. Yes injuries are always a factor in the playoffs & Florida had some as well, Edm just had more injuries of bigger degree.
Same. That Cats had it this year. Oil were short a quart.
Tho man they looked deadly going into the SCF. After the LAK scare dominated some good teams, somehow dictating play and playing to their strengths. Then the Cats showed even better at doing those things.
The Hyman injury was an absolute dagger.
Yes, the concussion to Brown took him off his heater and Nuge’s broken hand/wrist was a factor but the loss of Hyman was just massive.
Wish they could dump Janmark.
I think Philp needs to be on this team as the 4th line C man and penalty kill . Being a Rh C man is great and he was very good on the draw and could become a lot more useful on the pk if given the chance. He actually made a lot of plays offensively with some nice setups and went to the net. He just needs to play.
Do wonder if he gets claimed if put on waivers. I think he would and that would be a shame
For Philp to be made 4C, the Oilers need to offload Henrique while Philp must out perform Janmark among others in the preseason. If Philp wants 4C he has to show up and take it.
If Henrique is still here come September, that’s the 4C.
The Habs are hurting at 2,3, and 4C…perfect place for Henrique..maybe a decent pick coming back plus we shave $2M off the cap…..yes I know he has a no trade clause….but those are negotiable these days.
Henrique already turned down waiving his NTC
It’s probably a good thing to have Henrique’s veteran depth on the roster. This is the final year of his contract plus with the introduction of two young forwards into the lineup it could help. I suppose there’s a choice to be made between Rico and the Janitor because both aren’t necessarily needed IMO.
I would suggest we see Henrique as top 9 wing prior to 4C.
Janmark was over-capped and over-termed the day he signed his contract. Its not an egregious overpay but a league min player like Philp or Lazar can take his role.
I personally have Philp penciled in to 4C and have Lazar as Philp-insurance. Bowman spoke about Philp having a role on this team.
At the same time, when Lazar first signed, I figured AHL call-up but, since then, have come around to him having more of a role – his season last year was very poor but he was dealing with complications of knee surgery (a screw that didn’t dissolve) – its no longer an issue and the season prior, Lazar was very solid in a depth role – if he can get back there, I don’t mind him as 4W with Philp as 4C.
Janmark can battle for 12F but, really, I’d prefer to move him off the roster at his bloated cap hit.
I’m still a bit dissapointed they didn’t outbid for silov. For sure intradivision premium would be paid but that was a pretty low price to take a flyer on a goalie juat fresh roumding out development curve.
Yes I think he would have been a great choice to push Skinner. Wonder what Vancouver wanted from us
Based on what though?
He’s had no success at the NHL level.
He’s been objectively worse than Pickard,
He’s got some upside, I guess, but how does one waive Pickard to make room for a goalie that has never had NHL success?
No idea. But Silovs has potential to bite them in the @ss. Better in Pittsburg than in the Pacific Division.
To my eye, Canucks were, and remain, in an unenviable position re goaltending. I like Lankinen. But Demko is an expensive and fragile talent. Risky to build a roster around him (& his salary, & his injuries). Hard to trade him (because of salary and injuries). I’d have kept Silovs and developed him in the AHL against the day when Demko becomes tradeworthy. Get rid of the expensive goalie and invest in D and F groups, build a team around Q.Hughes for the year or two he’s still w the Canucks.
Why would they?
Silovs has not proven to be an NHL goalie and, to this point, is objectively worse than Skinner and Pickard.
Sure, maybe there is some upside there but Silovs has had no success at the NHL level (he was NOT good for them in their playoff run). Great Calder Cup run after another OK AHL season but that does not make one an NHL goalie.
As I posted yesterday, to support my notion that Silovs has a high ceiling:
He had an uneven year with the Vancouver Canucks last season, with an uneven club that placed too-high demands on a young goalie, IMO.
I responded to all of that yesterday as follows:
I like watching the World Championships but can we not agree that performances in that tournament really mean nothing with respect to the NHL? Goalie Leonardo Genoni was MVP of that tournament a few months ago.
Nope, Silovs was not good in the playoffs in 2024 – he had a couple decent games against the Oilers and a couple absolutely awful games.
He did just have a great AHL playoff run – again, somewhat meaningless – short hot streaks from goalies are what they are.
Silovs has had zero success in his NHL opportunities and generally been fairly meh in the AHL.
He may have some NHL upside but he’s objectively inferior to both Oilers goalies right now.
Thanks for the replay. I missed your comments yesterday.
I maintain there’s more to Silovs than we saw in Vancouver. I think the demands on him as a young and new to tge NHL goalie were high (dropped into playoffs when Demko and DeSmith got injured). He played well enough against Oilers that he kept the job even after DeSmith returned. My impression of his play against Predators and Oilers is obviously different than yours.
I’m not sure we have objective measures yet for goaltending as a position, but I make no argument that he’s an upgrade on the Oilers current lineup (who I think are, from a playoff wins measure, more than “cromulent” – the new word I learned here, on this blog, today). Given more seasoning in the AHL, and occasional exposure to NHL play, I think his MVP history might show itself. I’m curious about what Pittsburg does with him.
There is no realistic option for more AHL time if traded for or claimed by the Oilers.