Trades can be lots of fun for a fan base. If you’re an old nerd like me, trades that are made now sometimes bring back memories of older, similar deals.
The recent trade of prospect center Sam O’Reilly for scoring winger Ike Howard is fairly unique in Oilers history. There are examples of dealing a center for a winger (Laurie Boschman for Willy Lindstrom in 1983, as an example) but both men were established NHL players at the time. It was an excellent deal for Sather, as Lidstrom provided speed and depth scoring, while Boschman, a top-10 pick in the historic 1979 draft, flourished with the Winnipeg Jets.
The current deal involves two prospects who have yet to play pro hockey. Another trade of established players that is similar to O’Reilly-for-Howard was the massive deal that sent Jason Arnott to the New Jersey Devils for Bill Guerin. Two top level young players exchanged, if it doesn’t work out there’s hell to pay. The current deal doesn’t involve the same level of player, and we need to remember each of the men in the Oilers-Tampa deal do not have an established level of NHL ability. Still, very balls out deal.
There’s risk for Stan Bowman in this deal, but I think it was a good one overall. Is a No. 3 center worth more than a No. 2 LW? Maybe. Howard has to score goals on a value deal though, and there is no track record of Howard as an NHL goal scorer. Howard’s bust potential is higher too, as O’Reilly should be a good bottom-six forward at the very least. He has a wider range of skills.
The trade is just about the most interesting one made by an Oilers general manager (for me) since the deal to acquire Lubomir Visnovsky. The lesson of that deal was don’t give up too much youth no matter the quality of the return. I’m going to watch the Howard-O’Reilly deal closely.
On the Lowdown today, Bagged Milk will pop in and we’ll discuss the Oilers offseason, Jays at the deadline and what the Elks are doing with another off week. Noon to 2, Sports 1440!
This isn’t rocket science but I liked Peter’s take on goalies in this article:
https://oilersnation.com/news/one-on-one-peter-aubry-get-to-know-edmonton-oilers-new-goalie-coach
Specifically:
Gregor: Many believe a defenseman needs 300 games to really kind of understand the nuances of the position. Goaltenders, historically, there’s not many of them in the NHL excelling before the age of 25.There are few outliers like Marc-Andre Fleury, so do you find it takes goalies long to really understand and make the proper read that allows them to play better?
Aubry: There’s a lot there with that. I think a big thing with the goalie is you’re not overly protected. You need a well-rounded game. And so just to compare it to maybe a defenseman or forward who gets called up from the American League. A forward can start with six to 10 minutes. Maybe he can go play the wing instead of having down-low centre responsibility. A defenseman can start on the third pair, and you can do little things with matchups to help ease them in, whereas when you have a young goalie coming up, he has to be well-rounded, because in his first game he might face a 5-on-3 power play. The well-rounded game just takes a bit longer to develop, whereas young forwards and D can be a bit more protected, while a goalie, even if they are a backup, when the game is on, you can’t really protect them.
As to the protection from nasty physical contact… it is the officials’ responsibility to protect them. At the very least, harshly penalize offenders with game expulsion followed by the NHL suspending them. The NHL needs to do more… period.
Chinakov has asked for a trade out of CLB.
How about Janmark going the other way. Summer 2025 is all about youth.
Picking up Evander Kane to dump Dakota Joshua is an interesting decision. I don’t get it
Dakota Joshua’s ceiling is Evander Kane’s floor.
Dakota Joshua to Toronto for a 2028 4th rounder? Honestly, what is Vancouver front office end game here? Playing for a full house of future 4th rounders for useful players?
Leafs basically upgraded from Reaves to Joshua for a 4th rounder? That’s a nice bit of work by Treliving….
I don’t understand how Vancouver is in such cap hell, and this is a season before they begin spending 13m on 2 goalies with 3 knee’s between them.
who are they even rolling out at 2C?
The move so far that is starting to seem it won’t work out is Emberson. But that was presumably more about cap. It’s also possible that Emby wasn’t their main target, but that was Rosie’s offer. If they did target him, and the corgis were barking for him, that’s a pro scout and whoever fail. Might have noticed he tends to get lit up all of the time, which indicates not thinking fast enough. Not a great skater to compensate for that and size
That Grubs was a tough sob and he hit to hurt. He took out several opposing players with big hits.
I like when he was training Nurse. That particular version of Nurse was absolutely wild and unpredictable.
Extremely fast, skate into a funnel, but looking to tackle anything that moved, including big names like Lucic. Nurse played tough.
A buddy of mine just said we traded for Swayman but I see nothing yet.
your buddy is yanking your chain.
Sadly I think so
With what cap?
Nurse and Copponi for Swayman and Carlo retained one would think
Bruins traded Carlo to the TML last season.
Your buddy tells falsehoods.
I don’t read comments often (especially in the Dog days), so someone has probably already mentioned this. My favourite aspect of this situation is that the Oilers turned this years 31st pick into an absolutely quality young talent in Ike Howard. This is forward thinking by the organization.
The thing about Sam O’Reilly is that he’s projected as a 3c in Edmonton on arrival in the NHL in a couple years’ time with the likes of Connor McDavid & Leon Draisaitl obviously ahead of him. But his story will be completely different in Tampa when he arrives, and they will have another plan altogether, much the same as Ike Howard will be viewed in totally different light in Edmonton. It was a classic hockey trade that we will talk about in the years to come. But both teams got what they wanted. Life is like a box of chocolates, you just never know what you’re going to get.
Absolutely. The trajectory of both of these players’ careers has changed due to this trade to at least some extent.
I think the only way one of the teams is truly unhappy looking back is if one of these players completely blows up into stardom or completely busts. If both track roughly as expected, neither team will be upset.
I’m not sure I agree with this.
The Lightning weren’t looking to kick the can down the road – they were looking to sign Howard and have him in their org (and on their NHL team likely) right away.
The relationship soured due to initial deployment after signing issues, the player indicated he would not sign and would go back to school and become a UFA next off-season, the Lightning pivoted and got good value back.
Absolutely Howard wasn’t going to sign with Tampa and they had to make a new plan. I’m not sure what you disagree with. Was it not a classic hockey trade ? Did both teams not get what they needed?
I consider a hockey trade to be a trade based on on-ice performance, not one predicated in contract and signing issues.
I know both these players were 24 and proven NHLers but this swap kinda reminds me of the Linesman for Kruselnyski deal. This is as real as a hockey trade can get I do think both will pan out.
I keep hearing this is a hockey trade and, not that it matters, I don’t agree.
This trade was predicated on losing signing rights and related UFA projection.
I like the activity from Stan. I and others have looked at Cup teams of the last few years and how the built their teams. I did it because ‘draft and develop’ and ‘over ripen’ were the words on Jasper Ave then
Chevy in Winnipeg had a good team and rep and was pretty slow moving unless his hand was forced. Still the Jets are usually a good team, but can’t get over the top. Looking into it Cup teams had been quite active in shaping their roster via trade, because they wanted to improve anything they thought they needed right away
They also cut bait pretty quickly if it doesn’t work as they wanted. Careers are short relatively, prime isn’t an entire career. We’ll see how what plays out, so far so good for me. Stan seems to get the lay of the land, the cap, and that change is a part of the game. A necessary part. I agree we might see some vets get asked in a more direct way to waive next summer, which is hard but right
Winnipeg is a fascinating study on the results of institutional patience and risk aversion. A successful team in the regular season that is unusually cautious and deliberate — will they eventually find success in the playoffs? Or will they continue to peak in January each season?
What difference could more aggression have made? Could it make a difference now?
I’d read the crap out of that.
The problem with a heavy draft and develop thing is you take too long unless your prospects are all hitting it early
But if not your core gets frustrated and wants out, happened a few times. Why live there if not getting to your goal? Even the coach left, mid season. Then boom
And they can age out
Lubo missed the boat that day he left the shack
But that was all he missed
And he ain’t comin’ back
If we were to try and guess what Stan’s decision making logic is, which of the following is most likely:
Personally I’m leaning towards #3 but it really could be any of these, although I hope it’s not #2 as it would be good to (finally) have a management team that doesn’t suffer from the hubris of thinking they are the smartest in the room.
3
Its 100% NOT option 4.
It can’t be option 1 or 2 as they simply “can’t be sure”.
Option 3 makes sense but the key is despite SOR’s “greater range of skills”, he is no more likely “make it” than Issac Howard and perhaps even less as he’s considered a lesser prospect than Howard at this point.
As I’ve said, I think some of these skills, the “smart defensively” and “plays the right way” and “battles” are a bit over-rated at the amateur level.
There is a LONG ways to go before translating to the NHL.
I remember when Ryan O’Mara was acquired and the locked next captain of the Oilers based on that type of skill-set.
Sound points on touting amateur player cards OP… of course this reasoning never occurred back in the day with Eberle, Hall or Nuge… they were all the next Messiah and expected to be all of it and then some that season
I remember watching O’Marra live in the OHL. Thought he was a sure bet for the NHL. I even told my brother who had season tickets at the time that “this guy will be really good”.
Its tough for me to objectively criticize the trade in any respect.
I know some thought/think that SOR could get a few games in the league this year prior to returning to junior (I didn’t) but, realistically, after playing back in London this year, he’ll need a year in the AHL before arriving and, once arriving, may not be fully formed as a 3C.
Of course, he may expedite that timeline, we don’t know, but I think that’s reasonable.
On Howard, it seems reasonable he can play in the league this coming season – this is based on the progression of his peer group comparables over the last number of years. Like SOR, we don’t know if he comes fully formed as a legit scoring top 6 winger or if he’ll need NHL development time (like SOR could/would when he arrives).
Its clear the Oilers have moved up the time line with this trade and one would think the cost would be a lower tier or lower ceiling prospect in return (or one with a less enviable contract situation).
Well, facts are none of that is the case. Worst case scenario today is that SOR and Issac Howard are in the same tier of prospect but, objectively, based on every single ranking I’ve seen, Howard is the higher rated prospect today – materially.
The contract situation is enviable for the Oilers as well – they get Howard for 3 ELC years in the NHL (well, presuming he plays this year – not a lock but a good bet).
SOR will likely be in the AHL next year and he’d be past the slide and it would burn the first year – he’s likely arrive with 2 ELC years left.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not here to bash SOR – I like the player, I was high on him as an Oiler prospect and I wish they didn’t have to give him up in the trade.
At the same time, I think a portion of this fanbase can “over-value” the “good hard working Canadian kid” that “plays hard” and “is on the right side of the puck” and the such.
SOR is a very good 2-way player at the junior level – that means something but lets not forget – skill and talent with respect to goal scoring isn’t really “teachable” to the same extent solid/plus defensive play is.
SOR can’t be taught and developed to do with Howard does. Sure, Howard will likely never bring the advanced defensive game that SOR likely does but he can sure improve in that area (and, from accounts, has, to a large degree, over the last two years in Michigan) – this is not a cocky kid that thinks he can get by on his skill and doesn’t have to work at the defensive game or improve in the margins (again, from what I’ve heard/read).
We don’t know, SOR may turn out to the be the much better player but, where we are today, the objective analysis on this trade is positive – at least from what I glean.
Wish they could have sent over the 2027 1st, not SOR. And I’m sure they tried that.
I’m with you. From all accounts, Howard could be ready to contribute this season & they are on borrowed time with 29/97 so they need immediate contributions on ELCs.
No doubt they tried.
Frankly, this is an upgrade on the asset they had, both in timeline & team need. The only reason Howard came available from TB is bc he did not see a path forward there, otherwise they would not have traded him so lightly.
I agree with you SOR is not a bad prospect, but he’s 4-5 years from being a valuable contributor, where Howard can do it this year or next. That alone imo makes this a worthwhile gamble (I use gamble specifically here bc there are no known in any of this transaction yet).
I’m not so sure that’s even the reason (no path forward).
One of the reports that I heard (a TBL beat writer on with Dusty on EST) said the issues started back when Michigan was eliminated earlier this year and all of a sudden it became time to sign and play Howard earlier than expected. At the time, Tampa didn’t have the cap space to put him on the NHL roster and wanted to sign him and send him to Syracuse. Of course, Howard thought he should go straight to the NHL like the rest of his peer group (Leonard, Snuggerud come to mind) and this soured the relationship and, from there, Howard decided to not sign with Tampa.
That could be wrong, or there could be more, but that’s what I heard from a Tampa beat writer.
The main criticism is Howard is a one-trick pony. If that trick doesn’t arrive with him in the NHL, it won’t look good. O’Reilly has a wider range of skills. I like the deal, but there’s risk and if it doesn’t work Bowman will be correctly criticized.
Who do you think is a good comparable for Issac Howard? Watching Howard’s hi-lights I get Brock Boeser vibes.
I’ve heard comps of Marchessault or a taller, stronger Caufield. Based on my viewings of Howard (lots of highlights but nothing more) both seem to have merits.
Howard is a fascinating prospect. He is a volume shooter, 244 shots in 55 games last season. That’s 4.44 shots-game. Exceptional number. On the other hand? 15.6 shooting percentage. He was 20 last year.
Brock Boeser in 2016-17 (final year at UND) averaged 3.53 shots-game and 14.2 shooting percentage. He was 19.
Caufield averaged 5.32 shots-game final year at Wisconsin. 18.2 shooting percentage. He was 19.
I would suggest a better comp would be Alex Laferriere. At age 20, he posted 4.41 shots game and 14 percent shooting. He was not an especially high pick, and has some skating issues. So, he isn’t a perfect comp, but he has score well early in the NHL.
Caufield is the only player mentioned here who appeared to be clearly better than the rest of the group. I’m fairly comfortable with Boeser statistically, but the age gap (just one year, mind) may not be a comfortable one for some.
Tampa is gambling that O’Reilly’s skills arrive with him in the NHL. It’s a calculated risk by both teams.
I understand what you are saying but I thing a few things:
1) if Howard is a one-trick pony, then so are many other similar tier players coming out of the NCAA – the likes of Caufield had no more tricks than Howard, right? Of course, Howard’s success will be predicated on his offence but, from accounts, this is a player that improved immensely away from the puck in his two years at Michigan and has the work ethic and commitment to continue to work and improve.
2) Sure, SOR has a “wider range of skills” but, to my post I think this market can over-value some of that skill-set. Its like the portion of the fanbase that think a solid stay 2-way d-man would be more valuable than Evan Bouchard.
Your point about Howard’s improvement away from the puck in his two years at Michigan, as well as his work ethic is very valid for his next step at the NHL level.
This may well be his most valuable trait.
Hopefully but we’ll have to see with our eyes where he is. I mean, much of this came from Adam Nightingale (his coach at Michigan and a couple years on the USNDT) who has been making the rounds on Edmonton radio/online platforms – one would think his coach could be overly-complimentary.
The thing that perked my ears up was his comment about that Ike has a real hunger to score, more than most players. That has been lacking on the roster for a long while, outside of the duo at forward
Fair point. It’s a good trick though. Heatley got a decent career out of only being able to score.
I wouldn’t criticize that deal. He traded for a higher ceiling prospect in a place of need roster and cap wise, that is ready or close to play. It fits the timeline. It was one for one, a deal Holland rarely pulled off. As OP said Howard might even have an extra year on his ELC. If it busts so be it, but a well taken move that I’ve been wanting for ages. I haven’t been comfortable with the GM in a bit
Wheelers Top 100 drafted and non graduated list us out at the athletic. Howard and Savoie are around #50 in Tier 4. OReilly isn’t listed.
If you look at value Howard is ahead of all but 16 2025 draft picks so essentially we traded the #31 pick in 2025 draft for the #17 pick plus he’s two years closer to being ready.
He’s ahead of all but 14 2024s plus Celebrini so a 31 in that draft for a #16.
He’s moved up to around #20 in his draft of 2023.
So I’m not sure we should be expecting a true star but it does seem like a tidy piece of business and I’d say we’ve gone from having one “coin flip” for top 6 forward to 2 coin flips.
Well said
The Oilers traded a prospect 2 years away for a prospect ready now (in each case, likely timelines) and increased the “tier or prospect” and the ceiling and will get that prospect in the NHL with 3 years of ELC (likely 2 for the prospect traded away).
Its hard not to like the trade even if the cost was legit.