I wrote this in 2017 and it still applies today. Only the names change year over year. We track young players, discuss their strengths and possible futures, while also acknowledging the things that could keep them from the NHL. I was thinking about this part of franchise building yesterday, reminded by the club about some of these players via a recall of several Condors.
What was the distance between Ryan McLeod and Raphael Lavoie? Dylan Holloway and Matt Savoie? We don’t know what we don’t know, but we can use some tools at our disposal to gain a more accurate knowledge of what has come before, and what is in store.
AHL PTS-GAME AT 20
I should be able to say “if you score .60 points-game at 20 in the AHL, you can play in the NHL” but the Ryan McLeod outlier dashes that statement. McLeod did post 8 points in his final 16 games as an AHL rookie, and had three assists in five playoff games 2019 spring. Still, he’s an outlier and is either the best or second best player on the list at this time. McLeod’s playing time that season (2019-20) was suppressed due to a strong group of AHL centers on the team. Still, the numbers be the numbers.
What was the gap between McLeod and Savoie at 20? Offensively, Lavoie had the better season. What gives?
Maybe it’s foot speed. NHL Edge has McLeod in the 82nd percentile for straightaway speed, Lavoie at 78th percentile. What the actual hell?
Some of it has to do with opportunity and positional utility. McLeod is a center, and that helped. Lavoie is a first-shot scorer, but the Oilers had a pile of those. If he was 21 this fall, and still in the Edmonton system? Well you never know.
For what it’s worth, Lavoie led the Henderson Silver Knights in goals this past season, 17 hammers in about half a season. McLeod had a fine season for the Buffalo Sabres, and with his foot speed probably plays into his late 30’s in the NHL. No doubt in my mind McLeod was the better prospect, no surprise he is having a successful NHL career. Lavoie? We’ll see. That waiver claim last fall cost him, zero doubt in my mind. I hope he gets a chance someday.
New for The Athletic: Could the Edmonton Oilers pull off a surprise late-summer signing?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6503746/2025/07/20/edmonton-oilers-signing-marc-andre-fleury/
I think more of a trade than a signing.
Perhaps a depth pick and prospect for DiPietro – not sure he lasts until 24 on the waiver wire.
The org would need to be comfortable that he can provide solid back up goaltending as well as Pickard. They would be acquiring him for potential upside but there is risk that he’s not at Pickard’s NHL level and they’d be acquiring with knowledge of risking Pickard on waivers.
I have him much higher that Silovs – he’s got a much longer track record of AHL success. Really good numbers for multiple full seasons consecutively.
DiPietro could make the Bruins. I think he’ll show well given the chance, and Boston is casting about looking for a backup to Swayman. Looking at their team, getting DiPietro on the roster, at his age, probably has some appeal. Inexpensive, young and good is a strong mix.
They have Korpisalo…..
One or the other is bound to shake loose from the Bruins. DiPietro’s cap hit would be more palatable for the Oilers. But it may also be more palatable for the Bruins. Then the question would be, does Edmonton want Korpisalo?
I think maybe not. If you’re going to take on $2 million, needs to be more of a difference imo.
No interest in Korpisalo.
At $3 million AAV. If DiPietro outplays Joonas, it’s an easy call.
The other thing to consider is that it’s a contract year for Skinner. There’s a ton on the line this season for Skinner, it may even define the rest of his career. He’s going to want to step up or crumble into obscurity.
Sure but they may feel locked in to the vet back-up and be willing to move the younger player ahead of losing him on waivers.
The Jim Rutherford/Patrik Alvin strategy (although they move Podz to make room for non-NHL youngsters).
Highly unlikely MAF abandons retirement for EDM…but if he did, he would become the 7th first-overall pick (2003, PIT) to don Oilers silks, joining:
J. Murphy (1986, DET)
Hamrlik (1992, TB)
Hall (2010)
RNH (2011)
Yakupov (2012)
McDavid (2015)
Wouldn’t he be a great goalie coach / mentor for Skinner? …..I wouldn’t get my hopes up though.
Perhaps but, as we know, great players do not always make great coaches, right?
I don’t see MAF working for Edmonton in any capacity any time in the near or medium future.
James Hamblin with a great spot on Hello Hockey from yesterday if anyone is interested. Apx 18 minutes at end of hour 1.
What are the highlights?
Some intel on some of the cities they’ve travelled to.
Some good insight on the balance of trying to work on the things that will be required to play in the NHL (PK, bottom six play, etc.) while in the AHL where he’s leaned on to provide offence but that’s not the game that will get him to the NHL.
Some intel on the how beneficial it was to play a bunch with Gagner, Erne, etc.
Intel on how many minutes he, Caggiula and Savoie had to play down the stretch given how depleted the team was.
He was really banged up going in to last off-season but healthy this off-season – better ability to train and get ready.
Off-season working on things such as first step-quickness, things that will help on the PK, forecheck.
The Oilers have until Christmas to evaluate what they have in goal. Skinner can still evolve into a bona fide #1, while all Pickard does is win. But the leash is awfully short.
If they’re both hovering around .900 after 40 games you have to bring another guy in and give him the net. Skinner has to show he’s the man, and if he’s not you have to give McDavid and the boys a new look in net for the ‘26 playoffs.
DiPietro is not the answer though. Not enough NHL experience to be relied upon in the playoffs. The target should be Sorokin. Ekholm and Skinner out to make the $ work.
I get the theory, like the target, but I don’t see why Lou does that deal.
The deal probably looks like Skinner + Savoie + a 1st for Sorokin.
Ekholm may have to be dealt separately to make the $ work.
A lot depends on how Skinner plays the first 25 games
Doesn’t seem remotely realistic to me that the Oilers will be acquiring a mid-prime, top 3 goalie in the league signed for 6 more years even if he wasn’t a Russian with a full NMC.
For fear of stereotyping, is it often we see Russian looking to leave New York for Edmonton?
For me it’s not the regular season that will prove his value, it’s will be if he can go through a Cup run without the need for a ‘reset’. Audrey spoke of mental toughness in his interview with Gregor. Here’s hoping that he can help Skinner with that.
“First shot scorers” might have a range of definitions to different people but to my mind it is what the Oilers have lacked for a very long time. Young Eberle was a first shot scorer. I would begrudgingly grant the title to McDavid and Draisaitl because they have the ability but their problems are 1.) they think pass first, second, and third, and to shoot is like a QB having to check down to his fourth option (one timers are a completely different category). 2.) they both have an frustrating aversion to going roofdaddy.
I’ve been impatiently waiting for the Oilers to have a true first shot scorer who loves to fire the biscuit in the top six. Dream of Howard being that guy.
I think you over looked Evander Kane. He is a first shot scorer who can blow it past goalies from distance. Potted 22 in his first 43 regular season games for the Oilers and followed it up with 15 goals in 22 playoff games. From 2015 till 2024 he was 12th in the league in shots taken despite missing 100 games and averaged over 30 goals per 82 games.
The freak wrist cut by Maroon really derailed him followed by the sports hernia. Still managed 24 goals his last full season despite playing most of the season with the hip and core issues, only about 40% of his TOI with Leon and/or Connor and mostly second unit PP time.
Yeah, without nailing down what a “first shot scorers” means, folks could be talking about Mike Bossy or Brendan Perlini.. it is a big range.
Arvidsson, Kane and Skinner could all be first shot scorers if your definition is loose enough. …speaking of first shot scorers who are no longer on the books, James Neal probably counts too..
LT messing with us using Savoie and Lavoie interchangeably
LT, is that a Fairport Convention reference? Great band and great title for today’s post.
Yes. Love that song so much. All the versions.
Fun fact: Their singer, Sandy Denny, also sang on “The Battle of Evermore” by Led Zeppelin. It was the only time Zeppelin used vocals from outside the band.
Though they often used music from outside the band! -)
Sure did. And they’d be the first to tell you that.
That said, I suspect those old bluesmen/women weren’t very concerned about attribution by anyone until Zeppelin became a worldwide phenomenon and made gazillions doing so.
It’s alright that we don’t know what we don’t know, as long as we know that we don’t know what we don’t know.
What’s worrisome is when we don’t know that we don’t know what we don’t know.
I know eh.
It could all come down to finding out about what we don’t know about Howard, Tomasek, Leppanen & Regula. We know what we know about Savoie. But if two or three of those other guys show up in a positive manner, I’d say things will look tremendous.
Jarventie is another one.
The more the merrier.
And especially worrisome when our opponents know that we don’t know that we don’t know what we don’t know, and clearly choose the cup in front of us.
McLeod’s speed, ability to transport the puck through the neutral zone and defensive game (bad partially on speed) created a floor at the NHL level.
Lavoie was mainly a shooter at the AHL level. When he “popped” it was because he starting using his size to bully the league and get himself and the puck to the net.
He was never able to find the big body gear at the NHL level and was not able to get himself in spots to use his shot.
Maybe he was not used properly in his few opportunities in Edmonton and that stinted him.
Then again, he’s not been any more successful in the lauded Vegas organization.
Actually, his scoring rate (goals-per-game) increased from .35 to .40 with the Silver Knights. Pure goal scorers have value. McLeod was the better prospect from the get-go, but Lavoie’s story isn’t over imo. He could still catch an NHL career.
Not so sure I have that .05 bump as material at age 24.
Pure goal scorers have value if they can score at the NHL level. 0-0-0 in 16 games is a thing. JFJ is intrigued.
Lavoie is big has speed with a decent shot he should of been given a legit opportunity years ago. It’s obvious to me Lavoie was never in Holland’s plan he should of been traded like the Bourgault-Jarventie swap instead they let him die on a vine.
He’s certainly not dead on a line, he’s part of the VGK organization. We can watch to see if he sinks or swims.
He killed himself on the vine.
A player needs nourishment holland shattered this kids confidence. Lavoie had talent was never given any votes of confidence they rolled out the red carpet for a farmer from Viking yet didn’t have the time of day for your own draft pick. There’s a reason Holland trades all his draft picks away because he doesn’t believe in development excluding Larkin. Watch what he does in LA that Spence kid is going to be good. The Ceci contract was beyond bizarre.
I wanted to see Lavoie with some 3rd line reps with a bit of skill but, at the end of the day, he never took anyone’s job in exhibition and in his 7 games in Edmonton, he didn’t make a single materially impactful play.
It seems like a similar path so far for him in Vegas and, in his opportunities, he got real time with Hertl.
He’s now 1-7 goals in his 16 games with zero points.
My point is it doesn’t matter whether Lavoie or any Oiler high pedigree players that or on the cut line make it. It’s about opportunity and actually giving a kid that’s worked his ass of his whole life a chance if he’s demonstrated he deserves it. Bowman is much more youth friendly its like night and day with Holland. These are two vastly different approaches. I myself love seeing a new kid stepping in and fulfilling his dream of being a effective NHLer instead of regurgitating the Erne’s of the league which Holland chooses over youth.
You do remember the likes of Bear, Jones, Yamamoto, McLeod, Holloway, Broberg, Skinner, Desharnais, et al, got their NHL careers started under Holland’s tenure. Most of whom weren’t even his draft picks.
Have all the other prospects not also been working their whole life for a chance? Lavoie is no special in that way and, truth be told, part of his slow development was not really working in certain areas he needed to.
Lavoie didn’t earn opportunities until a couple of years in to his pro career – that’s mostly on him.
When he did get opportunities, he did not grab them.
Is Bowman more friendly that Holland it this regard?
Matt Savoie earned NHL opportunities moreso than Lavoie ever did and couldn’t get a call up down the stretch when the team was decimated with injuries – there was a clear mandate from Bowman to keep him down for the stretch drive.
I would argue the main reason for McLeod’s success is because he is more reliable defensively. I know plus minus isn’t sexy, but if you look at Lavoie and McLeod’s twenty year old seasons, McLeod was even on a negative team, while Lavoie was +1 on a highly positive team. Lavoie has not only failed to score in the nhl, he was -4 in nine games last season.
Speaking of which, Savoie being plus 21 on a team that was a negative goal share team, as a rookie, is highly notable.
I can’t say for sure, but I suspect lots of ENG against or that number would likely be a decent amount higher.