I published my Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for 2025-26 today at The Athletic (link is here) and I thought we could do the same thing with the Condors here. I’m not going to post offensive numbers, but rather the depth chart at each position and brief comments on some of the players. Here we go!
GOALTENDERS
Sebastian Cossa has been mentioned as a possible target by the Oilers. We have to remember it’s silly season, a time when blue sky conjecture becomes mainstream rumour, but I like the idea. The Condors have a veteran stopper in Matt Tomkins, who played to a .907 save percentage in 28 AHL games one year ago. He should see the bulk of the starts until one of the youngsters (Samuel Jonsson, Connor Ungar and Nathan Day) emerges. My money is on Jonsson, who I have as the No. 3 prospect in the system. Brett Brochu is off to Germany. He’s a good goalie. The size bias is real.
Left Defense
Atro Leppanen is a wildcard who I see playing some NHL games this season. His outrageous offense in Liiga last season should transfer well to the AHL level. I anticipate big boxcars for the Condors. Cam Dineen and Riley Stillman are AHL veterans, players who will be counted on to both help the team win and mentor youth. If you look back at minor-league history, these men get very little credit for helping develop the NHL blue we see for years and years. Call them the Connie Madigan All-Stars. Damien Carfagna is a player whose numbers and scouting reports suggest will push for playing time this season in Bakersfield. Mobile, can make plays, I have him as the top LH defenseman in the system at this time (No. 7 overall). Mats Lindgren is a recent AHL signing and he’s young and good enough to pass some of these names in the season to come.
Right Defense
I have Alec Regula playing in Edmonton and Bakersfield this season. When he’s wearing Condors threads, expect a feature role and solid boxcars. I think he’s probably under the radar for Oilers fans but if he’s healthy Regula will push for NHL time. Beau Akey is the feature prospect (I have him No. 5 and the top defenseman in the system) and his skating will blow your mind. He is a perfect fit for the organization’s defensive template (get the puck, outlet under control) and could surprise in his first pro season. Josh Brown and Luke Prokop are big, shutdown defenders who play with a rugged edge. The Condors need players with bite, and those two men should see plenty of even strength and PK time.
Center
The Oilers probably have a shuttle for some of the season, with Noah Philp, Mattias Janmark and David Tomasek possible Condors pivots for a time in 2025-26. Among men who we consider season-long Bakersfield farmhands, James Hamblin will play a feature role in all game states. Josh Samanski and Jayden Grubbe will be the big men in the middle on depth lines. I’ll caution in projecting Samanski into a feature role, he’s going to have a period of adjustment that might last the entire season. Among AHL hands, Matt Copponi may land on the wing but has plus offensive numbers coming out of college and those guys are going to play. Rem Pitlick is more likely to land as a center on the Condors, and he is a quality AHL player. Strong addition by management.
Left Wing
Roby Jarventie is the feature player at this position, and I do see him getting some NHL games this season. Of all the prospects in Bakersfield this year, Jarventie, Akey and Jonsson are the three who have the most NHL potential. He’s very good. Max Jones should have a good season as a middle-six LW, he can score goals at an impressive level in the AHL. Viljami Marjala is an intriguing player, but I can’t project him into a feature role until we see what he brings. The Liiga numbers suggest he’ll play behind Jarventie but ahead of Jones on the Bakersfield depth chart. Connor Clattenburg and Brady Stonehouse will compete for depth minutes, Clattenburg’s rugged style should get him extra minutes once he gets established in the AHL. I’ll list Rhett Pitlick here but he could play either wing and he will play because he’s a talented player. A fine AHL signing. Ethan Keppen and Matt Brown are also AHL contracts and face steep compeition at this position.
Right Wing
Quinn Hutson is the feature RW on this roster to my eye, assuming Jarventie plays the other wing. Hutson’s college scoring numbers, and the fact he spiked in his final season, suggests to me the Oilers might have a real one here. We’ll see. Matvey Petrov has so much talent he could dominate the position and not one human should be surprised. I love his talent. This is his year to stand and deliver. James Stefan was a strong junior scorer but hasn’t been able to get it done in pro. He’ll get run over if he can’t do it this season, there’s so much talent on this roster. I’ll list Matt Copponi here as well, for me his talent should see him emerge from the pack. Seth Griffith is on an AHL deal but he’ll be at the top of the depth chart to start the season. If he’s a depth player/healthy scratch in spring, it will be a sign of a successful prospect winter. Trevor Janicke can play center or wing, but he’s in tough on this list.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest will be Kevin McCurdy and we’ll talk about reasonable expectations for the Oilers. We’ll also chat Riverhawks, Stingers, Jays and Elks. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440!
Oilers reasonable expectations for 2025-26, team and individual:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6549033/2025/08/13/edmonton-oilers-reasonable-expectations-2025/
Sounds like Bowman is doing a little bait and switch with the Cossa rumours. By not showing his desperation on trading Skinner he hasn’t tanked his value any lower after the Cup Final. I believe Bowman will have all of August to get it right.
Cossa is not NHL ready. Any rookie acquisition is for the future
I didn’t mean that to read bitchy
I believe Bowman is just throwing some smoke with Cossa as he has his eye on a more proven backstop.
Unless Bowman starts moving contracts out, or bad things happen with health, I don’t see many Condors getting more than a cuppa this season. The NHL bus is full to standing room only
I wouldn’t think they would want to lose Regula or Jarventie to waivers. If Philp can’t hack it as they see it, he probably passes through, and they might not care if he gets claimed. Same with Janmark, Kapanen or Lazar
Stauff has been clear he expects one contract out before camp in order to create cap space to increase accrual and add a forward at the deadline.
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Tough to imagine either Regula or Jarventie getting claimed off waivers.
Both are non-established NHL players that, while pushing for the NHL, in addition to not being established, have not played hockey in a long time. Regula missed the entire year and Jarventie has played 2 games in the last 1.5 seasons.
Not sure any team would claim to keep one on their roster.
Wild that the Bruins waived Regula when they could have just kept him where the Oilers did – non-roster season opening IR – no cap hit, no roster spot, not need to expose.
Is it a non zero possibility that the Bruins don’t submit a waiver claim for Regula? I feel like they are the ones that might grab him back if he appears on waivers and we end up in the same boat as we were last year with Lavoie and Vegas.
They might but they would need to waive him to send him down (and given how they exposed him last season without a real need to….).
Maybe there is a merry go round again but the wild circumstance that had Lavoie end up in the Henderson over Bakersfield was wildly unique and highly unlikely to occur again.
The GM also has to factor in the possibility of injury. You start out with a direction, but things happen that can alter the plans. Glad they have possibilities that can give them cover.
I think he is trying to build some cover that is more functional than last season. Kind of tough on a few of the guys for sure
Imagine paying Josh Brown, Max Jones, Mattias Janmark, and David Tomasek a combined $4.65M to play for the Bakersfield Condors.
Interestingly, Alec Regula was signed to a 2-Year deal where his AHL salary is $215K for the upcoming season, but $450K in the second. Signals to me that Stan Bowman expects Regula to contribute regularly in the NHL at some point.
Luxury! The team making mucho dinero allows for these things that many teams couldn’t cover. I see it as the right thing, have as good depth as you can, you never know
The owner may not even know….
The cap hit would be a total $350K ($300K to Janmark……)
Almost fully buryable. If I’m Darryl i might not love it but then one guy takes a puck off the chin and the season isn’t over and I’m happy with the investment. Hard cap was a billionaire thing, no way do i feel bad for owners paying a fair share. Not that you said that.
No way he ends up in Bakersfield as it’s either Oilers 3rd or 4th line or it’s Bon Voyage.
He’s going to give up $1.2MM USD…..?
Slice it anyway you want they’re not paying Tomasek 1.2 million to play in Bakersfield. Tomasek will not see1 game in Bakersfield.
Slice it any way you want, if Tomasek wants his money, and plays by the rules, the Oilers have to pay him if they cut him from the big club and he is willing to play in Bakersfield. That’s 3 to 4 times what he’d make in Europe. Plus if he agrees to go to Bakersfield rather than quitting it still leaves open the chance he gets to play in the NHL by playing well enough to be recalled.
They paid Josh Brown $1MM to play in Bakersfield and will again.
They paid Lane Pederson $775K to play in Bakersfield (twice).
They’ve paid lots of players lots of money to play in other organizations or to sit at home.
Depends on the player and his performance but, if he isn’t NHL ready or isn’t an NHL player, they will waive and re-assign him and he very well may ride it out to make triple-quadruple what he would back home for a year.
I do believe Jarventie and Regula both become regulars by Christmas. Bowman want’s D-men that move the puck up ice skillfully. Though Regula isn’t what you deem physical his big frame should do a relatively good job of boxing out opposing forwards. As for Jarventie this kid has all the tools to be a value contract for the next 3-4 years. I still don’t know how we got Jarventie for Bourgault.
I believe Tyler Tulio was also in the transaction.
Jarventie & Regula should provide solid depth, which is a valuable commodity when injuries happen.
I think they can amount to more than depth rather quickly.
Tullio went with McLeod in the Savoie deal.
Borg went with Chiasson for Jarventie and an epic 4th that netted us Podz then came back for Kane haha.
If they do minor trades like that consistently, the program will be more than fine. They’re shopping in the right aisles asking about Augustine with the intention of actually getting Cossa, at least that’s my bet.
A GM with an eye to the future while not lighting assets on fire for the big club. You can only do that for so long.
Jake Chiasson was in the Bourgault/Javentie trade.
Tulio went with McLeod in the Savoie trade.
Agreed, Jarventie for Bourgault is a steal – I suspect Ottawa was concerned about his knees going forward – as of now, still valid.
I see the RD depth chart as Regula, Brown, Akey. No, this isn’t to say that Brown is valued more or has a future over Akey but Akey is a 20-year old rookie pro d-man graduating from the CHL to the AHL.
I see the RD depth chart as Regula, Brown, Akey. No, this isn’t to say that Brown is valued more or has a future over Akey but Akey is a 20-year old rookie pro d-man graduating from the CHL to the AHL.
I hope LT is right, and he surprises in a positive way, but I expect some struggle as he adjusts to the pro game early in the season and, to be honest, I already anticipate the “bust” calls by an impatient fan-base when he’s got 2 assists in the first 13 games and is a -5.
For me, I will be looking at his splits and anticipating a giant bump in the 2nd half of the season.
Of course, I could totally be wrong and perhaps he hits the ground running with that great skating.
Don’t forget Luke Prokop who is also RHD. It looks like a nice balanced group with 4 LHD & 4 RHD.
It would be great to have Cossa as a prospect in the org – decent chance he could be ready for the back-up position at some point this season and he’s got upside for sure.
He would start in the AHL but could be a legit call-up option. I think they let Rodrigue go to clear a path for Jonsson/Day, whoever wins the day (Jonsson is older and ahead) but Cossa is a better prospect that either.
At the same time, I can’t see it happening. Cossa was the 15th overall and has at least kept his value since draft day – his development seems right on path from what I can tell.
The Wings have Gibson and Talbot, two older goalies and one with a material injury history – Cossa will likely get NHL games this season as an injury replacement.
Yes, the Wings have Trey Augistine as well, another very good goalie prospect, but he’s back in school this season and just because he is there doesn’t mean they give Cossa away – he remains waivers exempt.
Beau Akey isnt getting Detroit to get rid of Cossa, right?
Trey Augustine is a top 5 goalie prospect. But they are not going to just give Cossa away. Would cost us one the two prospects we are counting on this season
One would think that Cossa is ahead of Augustine developmentally. But it appears Detroit is higher on Augustine somehow. I don’t get it?
Better goalie.
Two years younger and no pro experience.
3 year starter for USA at the World Jr’s with 2 golds and 3 year starter for powerhouse Michigan State, top ranked program. back to back .924’s. Great resume and superior numbers to Cossa at same age.
Higher upside with 2 more years of runway. They’re both excellent prospects, I could see why they’d be higher on Augustine.
I like Cossa more long-term but if you’ve solved goalie voodoo please join the Oilers ASAP.
Josh Leivo seems to have found his game. 49 for Ufa last year and now they can’t afford him.
Was always a blog favorite. Either he figured the game out or ‘the gas’ works just right for him.
Im going to go with Max Jones as the surprise this camp.
His first game with the Oilers he showed he possesses everything he needs to succeed. Playing that game he easily holds down a spot. History says he cant put it all together and keep it together.
But I’ll stick with Jones anyway, just cause.
I had him at No. 29 in his draft year, Brock Otten called him a throwback power forward. I always liked him.
He had an absolute ton of opportunities to be who they needed, when they needed it, last year.
Could not step up. And it wasn’t a question of talent – but of effort and focus. Wasn’t there.
Too bad as it would have been very helpful.
I think Clattenburg is in the same mould as Jones. Big fast tough, but aren’t great with the puck. I hope CC puts in the work, Jones too but he might be past that at this point. I would love a winger or two like that again
For sure, I’m rooting for him to turn the corner, seize the opportunity and make a difference in Edmonton..
Jones would of been a valuable player in the playoffs If he was willing to get his hands dirty. Being a power forward is the hardest job in hockey. Jones needs to play this style but it appears it’s not in his DNA. Whereas Clattenburg knows exactly the path to the NHL and after he becomes a cult favourite in Bakersfield I do hope he is rewarded with a few games later this year.
I look for him to be a solid Condor this year.
He had 19 games to show what he was to the Oilers last seaon – he showed us that in 19 of them.
He’s 27 years old.
I know, I know…….thats why I have him as the surprise of camp, the September darling, the “who would have thought…”
Next up……Josh Brown…..
Okay, don’t push your luck Winchester
This paints a very positive outlook for the Condors this season. Thanks LT
I wound have to say it looks like a promising group of Condors. I have no idea how it fairs with all the other farm affiliates of the other NHL teams. I just wish them all the best.
This is what a farm system should start looking like players with potential from the Brouwer-Burish-Bolland-Bickell-Hjalmarsson-Schmaltz-Sadd-Kruger Bowman has a good eye for talent and doesn’t bury them like our predecessor. Wright has the easiest job in the world because Holland trade’s damn near every draft pick. I myself want to see a Clattenburg-Nicholl-etc get developed and then see playing time in the future.
With respect to no real left shot D prospects (Munzenburger, sigh), last night Stauff was again on the re-signing Ekholm train.
Keeps talking about recency bias and he was playing hurt. Stauff is right but he ignores the age factor and the chance that he may be less than 100% mobility much of the time.
Stauff also said he could foresee them signing all of Walman, Ekholm and Kulak.
He also said Kulak may want to test the market as he could get $4MM out there and the Oilers can’t do that. I think he could get closer to $5MM and am glad that, as much as I like Kulak, team likely lets him walk as opposed to overpaying their cap structure.
Of note, Stauff was on a trip with Kulak’s agent recently so, while he didn’t say this yesterday, intel on potentially testing thr market due to value may be more than just his personal opinion. Might.
Damien Carfagma strikes me as being a real left shot prospect. There’s also Atro Leppanen, along with Stillman & Dineen and the newly acquired Mats Lindgren. Seems rather crowded on the left side on the Condor blueline.
For me, I don’t put much stock in to the undrafted NCAA free agent signings (the undrafted players that sign as 22/23 year olds) so I have Carfagma in the same group as Hutson which is I need to see them “do something” before I rank them as “real prospects” – generally.
I mentioned Leppanen as the one NHL option – not really a true prospect given age.
Stillman, Dineen and Lindgren are not real NHL prospects to me. The first two are organizational depth that can fill in for a game or two if injuries pile up. Dinnen a bit more but he’s not going to impact this roster full time going forward, right?
What has Munzenburger done to be ranked as a real prospect?
Nothing as far at the org is concerned – or not more than Copponi who, like Munzenbruger, was offered an AHL deal, not an ELC.
I’ve liked this prospect since I was him briefly at the World Juniors and was surprised at his skating, offensive instincts, etc. I see alot of a young Michael Kesselring in him including range of skills and muted NCAA stats due to circumstance.
I’m probably wrong – its not like I’ve watched a ton of him but I was excited for him to join the Oilers pro ranks – thought he’d be in Bako a week after his college career ended.
I was way off.
I would absolutely sign Kulak for 4 mil per.
Kulak may also like staying close to home.
Agree on Leppanen – similar to Tomasek, a complete wild card but we know he starts in Bako unless there are early injuries. M
From accounts, his offensive game is legit and NHL level and ready but he’s somewhat of a rover out there. Can Chaulk and McCambridge teach some structure in to his game?
He is pretty much the only left shot D “prospect”.
For me unless Bowman really hit a homer and Lepp translates to a top NHL offensive D, I can’t see a path for him. The reason Forsling found a career and became a very good player as a small D is based on his terrific skating and defensive play, which he’s always had
And that he liked the gym so much he grew an inch or two since he was 18 and gained 25 lbs on his smaller frame 🙂 Those Panthers
Lepp has the skating but to me unless he blows it out of the water offensively, I don’t see it, at least on the Oilers
Leppanen probably doesn’t need to blow it out of the water offensively, he’s going to have to prove he can defend successfully at the NHL level. His offense will come from defense which is what the Oilers defense is all about, unless you’re Evan Bouchard.
My thesis is that undersized D, like undersized F, have to be top offensive players to stick, or be more than replacement level. For D there aren’t many that are smallish elite defensive types, they are pretty rare. Forsling is one, but he’s an outlier, and he’s still like 6′ 200lbs, not 180 or less. Suter was good and that size as well
The issue is that it is a physical league with mostly big players. Smaller D that aren’t elite get pushed around, and teams might try to use them, but revert to normal sized players. I posted the other day the % of F under 180 was around 8%. For D that played 50+ games last season there were 12 D under 180lbs. 25 were under 190 and a bunch are tweeners, or top talent. To me that says that what I am saying is correct
You see the small D drafted a few years ago bouncing around and not establishing as 82 game players, like Stecher for example
How big does a d-man need to be for you not to consider him “small”?
Both Akey and Leppanen are 6 foot and have likely put on much weight since they made it on hockeydb (which does not update) – in particular the 26 year old.
Over 6′ and over 200 lbs. The average is 6’4 and almost 210. If a player is exceptional it doesn’t matter, if they aren’t why not get a player that has more range in their game? Even Quinn Hughes has trouble in the playoffs. Makar lately as well
Too small or too big isn’t common as I posted the other day, outliers. Chasing outliers (not saying Bowman is) is an inefficient use of assets, as we saw in the DoD and PC (pre Connor), because the odds are already lower for those player types. I was not against the Frederic less than ideal contract, because in my survey of size he falls into the too big category by the weight I chose for F (220lbs). But he has an established track record and is an effective outlier, it’s not taking a gamble that he could get around well enough and have enough skill to be a good NHL player
I think that’s what usually ends up happening with teams and smaller D, why not use a typical size player, Stecher said it once about his career, has a hard time playing 82 games by hurt or by scratch, and he’s a tough pretty good player. His boots don’t help him either, which is why I think all smaller players need to be top end skaters
If it didn’t matter we’d see more of them. F and D. 25 D under 190 played over 50 games last season as mentioned above. Many were tweeners and won’t have long careers in the NHL. I hope our guys do make it and help, but I’ve seen this movie before, too many times. Low odds
For D that played over 50 games, there were only 35 that were over 220 lbs. There are more than the under 190 gang because being big is an asset for D, or any player in a full contact sport, but skating becomes an issue it seems around that weight. Physicality is the issue at the other end
Over 6′ and over 200 lbs. The average is 6’4 and almost 210.
I do no think this is true.
While a d-man that is 6’0 and over 190 is, for sure, a bit smaller and lighter than average, I don’t consider that an under-sized d-man that has to have an exceptional skill to survive – that is not Troy Stecher or even Kris Russell territory.
Beau Akey is a bit smaller than average but its not prohibitive of an NHL career without an exceptional skill (although his skating is high end).