If you have lived in Edmonton for the last 40 years, you have known some hot and eventful August nights. Beer strikes, wild storms (the tornado was July 31, 1987 btw) but nothing will ever hit this city with the same wallop as the sale of Wayne Gretzky.
This is a different time in Oilers (and NHL) history. The salary cap changed everything, and the Edmonton franchise is one of the richest in the league. Money is not an issue, and the actual number attached to the Connor McDavid deal doesn’t matter in the way all contracts mattered in the 1980’s.
The impending McDavid contract matters in other ways. How long is it? There are so many rumours out there I think it wise to disregard all of the verbal until we hear things like “deep in negotiations” and we are not here yet.
On the other hand, there is no hint that a contract won’t be signed by McDavid. So the idea of a late-summer trade (Oilers can’t trade McDavid and can’t let him walk for nothing, so you see the problem) is farce and people aren’t talking about it for good reason.
What does that leave us with? Many insiders are saying two years, three years, four years, but no insiders are saying eight years. What does that mean?
Aside from the fact it sounds like really smart and well connected folks are delivering the mother of all vague verbal on this issue, we can agree McDavid’s heart belongs to the Oilers room and his teammates. He wants to win with the Edmonton Oilers and that’s reflected in the lack of even a hint of his deciding to play out his walk year and sign as a full free agent in 2026 summer.
I think we can read the tea leaves by viewing the coaching changes of summer as a recognition that the staff was stubborn on some things. Why the outlets were brilliant in the first three rounds and failed miserably in the final one is surely part of the story. The lack of adjustment and unusual deployment against the Panthers should also be the story, but I’m not privy to what is going on and I’m not going to pretend I am.
The team has added youth, skill, retained a strong defensive group and we’ll see about the goaltending (several posters on this blog are convinced an upgrade is coming) over the final weeks of the offseason.
Bottom line: Expect a contract for the captain that takes him to the end of the decade (or close); expect some form of goalie upgrade (Mike DiPietro seems more likely than Connor Hellebuyck or James Reimer) between now and the deadline if Skinner-Pickard start the year and play fumble-puck.
The best news of all? Expect McDavid. Music!
I still can’t understand how the pundits believe Kaprizov will be getting a contract (AAV) that is near or better than McDavid’s. Admittedly the guy is quite good at hockey, but In what universe does a winger with his stats get +/- 16M smackeroos? The cap is rising, does that justify players (and agents) seeking overpays as standard practice… is greed the order of the day? I don’t know.
If I was McDavid and knowing the leverage I have I might be tempted to say to the management team. “Before I make my decision I want you to provide me ( in writing ) your game plan for the next 5 years as it relates to the over all hockey ops organization ” “Once I have that I will give you my decision within ____ weeks”. ” no not verbal in writing”
How does anyone know. Would just be a bunch of vague statements like get a #1 goalie. Win the cup
All of the insiders know absolutely nothing about what Mcdavid feels. I doubt anyone other than Mcdavid knows at this point. Maybe the Draisatls do. But that’s it. We will probably find out at the end of the month or early next month
he may ask for a 1 year extension. Probability of that 0%
He may ask for a 2 year extension. Very low probability.
He may ask for a very team friendly just give me the damn cup already 3-4 year contract. High probability.
He may just say my I know I was frustrated when we lost again. But my best friend is here and we are gonna raise our kids next to each other and give me an 8 year contract. Probability- higher than the insiders think
I’m totally okay with anything between 4-8 years. If it 4, it keeps Bowman’s feet to the fire to be aggressive and innovative so he wants to stay. 8 yrs is long term security for fans. I’m not concerned either way.
I still do not believe that McDavid would sign for anything less than max term. The threat of injury is just too much risk. He knows that even if he signs for 8 years, 4 years from now if there is no Stanley, he can ask for a trade and will get one. His best friend just signed for 8 years starting this season, if he signs for less, he and his agent have made a mistake.
It also keeps the team short on cap, by taking a higher salary again just as this one starts to become easier on the cap. All of the Panthers top 10 players went long term, because they think they are a dynasty and want to stay. Ekblad signed low, and Zito got a discounted Jones with term. I bet when Barkov signs his next one it’s team friendly, as well as Tkachuk, both contracts over in 2030
If Connor thinks that they can get over the hump, wants to stay, and wants the team to be as competitive as possible over his time, take a fair number by 7 or 8. Especially because the best team in the east is structured to age out, Bowman is taking the Oilers in the opposite direction. I’ll be surprised if Bowman keeps Hyman and Nuge once the are up again unless it’s on very low contracts. But even still, they will be getting up there and the stars will be, they will need younger players
“Many insiders are saying two years, three years, four years, but no insiders are saying eight years. What does that mean?”
I think the fact that no one is saying 8 years, may be the reason it might be what happens.
As Frank Seravalli pointed out if he wants out at any time he can just say so
It will be the last chance for an 8 year deal and a second 100 plus million Deal
I really don’t see any finesse in manipulating years to benefite him or cap
Sorry, agreed above before I read your post!
Has Crosby ever been, or wanted to be the highest paid in the league? He was the best player for a long time. I don’t think Connor cares a lot about that either
Room gets suddenly still and when you’d almost bet
You could hear yourself sweat, he walks in
Eyes black as coal and when he lifts his face
Every ear in the place is on him
… Starting soft and slow like a small earthquake
And when he lets go, half the valley shakes
Sounds like you might have once had a steady diet of crunchy granola, porcupine pie, and soggy pretzels.
We can not allow a Mitch Marner type of return for Connor If he decides not to resign. Mitch Marner was well within his rights to nix any trade once he decided not to resign. It is also the right for the fans to put a Mitch Marner photo on the bottom of their cats litter box. I think when everything is said and done Leon will be my favorite Oiler alltime and I do believe he’ll finish all time in games played for this organization. I’ll be 6 feet under when Leon Coaches and then G.M’s this team after he retires a Oiler.
The Gretzky sale taught one to expect the unexpected. For most of us it was a complete shock during what still felt like the apex of the greatest team in history.
We are now at what is close to the apex of the most advanced player in history. Regarding the contract, I think I expect the unexpected, which could go any which way.
The team is younger and faster. The additions have skill, but the evidence to indicate that the incoming skill is greater than the skill that left is questionable at best. The players that left were not the reason the Oilers lost the cup. And replacing them, even with improvements, doesn’t guarantee anything.
The core group of McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Nurse & Skinner were not good enough for Stanley, especially without Hyman. Is this core good enough to beat the Panthers anytime soon?
Does McDavid want 8 more years of this? Maybe. He is the most determined player I have ever seen.
All of this “best D in the league” talk is a bit silly to me. They did not look as good as the Panthers D. Reads like too much focus on expected goals and puck moving, it’s the kind of analytics Lowetide has taught me to ignore. Puck moving and expected goals are fine things. But for Pete’s sake, stop Marchand when he’s embarrassing you and making you look like Swiss cheese.
Regarding skill, everyone is switching gears to bully hockey. The league is not calling penalties. Skill is fine. But Edmonton lost a lot of grit and determination. They are less of a bully team now than in April. I don’t have faith that small skill will be rewarded by this league.
There are a lot of question marks about this Oilers. Including the goaltending. I don’t know what to expect, but I do expect the unexpected and I know that winning this year will be harder than last.
The Oilers core (including goaltending) is more than good enough to make the playoffs. Overall the team has been built with good depth to navigate the first 82 games.
Whether the Oilers succeed in the playoffs comes down to a few factors:
1) Can any of the wingers emerge to be sure-fire top-6 for the post-season? How high is the ceiling as of spring ‘26 for Howard and Savoie specifically?
2) Similar to the Panthers, can the Oilers add meaningful difference makers at the deadline to gain an edge over the league’s elite?
To your point, which bullies can we look at add as mercenaries for the upcoming battle?
The core is good enough. But the team was still unbalanced, the mix of players needs to be right, Holland just tried to add better players, but didn’t build the team. Jackson added a few guys, but didn’t help to flesh out a better team, just added guys with better 5v5 stats
Bowman’s addition of Pod had a bigger impact, because he is an assertive high energy player, he lead the forwards in 5v5 points in the finals, because of how he plays. Even though Savoie and Howard are smaller players, they are fast and assertive and play with pace and energy. That is what’s needed to me. Players like Brown and Skinner don’t cut the mustard when things get super intense
The Panthers are a better constructed team, not a more talented one, Zito has each piece in place. Maurice is a better coach because of his experience. If Bowman keeps adding as he has been they will be a better team at battles, and overall would be able to play at the tempo required, in more than just a game or a spurt
The Panthers D looked better, because the Oilers were not playing well. The Panthers D didn’t have a hard job, they faced little pressure and had consistent support. I take our group over theirs all day. The Panthers did that to them, and they couldn’t counter. I think the D gets blamed for a lot of F mistakes and lack of support. It’s been a problem for ages, the team playing too spread out, not making themselves available all of the time. I fear it’s coaching, that’s missing the point
I remember in the summer of ‘97 or ‘98 the contract negotiations between Sather and both Doug Weight and Ryan Smyth were the big news.
Both players ended up signing 2-year deals iirc, Weight’s was just over $2M after he had a 100-point season, with Sather having grinded them down to what the EIG could afford.
Two summers later they went back to the negotiating table and signed contracts at twice the value, by this time over $4M for Weight. A few years later Weight would be traded to St Louis where his salary increased again exponentially to over $8M annually.
This set of contract negotiations felt short-sighted at the time and would prove to be so over the long run. Why wouldn’t you sign your best players for as long as possible, making them feel content and comfortable, thereby enabling the GM to surround them with complimentary talent? Did the EIG really operate with such a short term mandate or with a severe aversion to risk?
Imagine an alternate history where they sign the ‘98 core of Weight, Smyth, Guerin, Joseph, Hamrlik, Mironov, Grier, and Marchand long-term (at ‘98 prices!) and run that group to the middle of the 2000’s.
They operated with a lack of money. They would have signed both long term otherwise.
They use to have to do cash calls with 37 owners to operate.
Both Smyth’s departure and the ill-fated Comrie for Perry deals were nixed over a paltry sum of approx. $175k because the ownership group couldn’t dig deep enough in their couch cushions.
Edmonton was so close to losing the team on several occasions only Oil money from Lloydminister saved it on one occasions on another some con man from Houston I believe was close to buying the team with no money. I think the only thing saving us was how many Cups we won. We are so lucky to have the owner we have.
I have never swayed from being 100% confident that McDavid will re-sign this off-season. There hasn’t been a moment when I didn’t think it was a surety that it happen in late August/early Sept – when he’s back in Edmonton after summer activities.
Its not done until its done but I have zero concern.
I have moved off thinking 8 years to a shorter term – all the intel leads us that way.
Something in the $16.5MM range has always been my thought but there is a SMALL part of my brain that says he might not want to take a $2.5MM bump over Leon and maybe he comes in closer to $14MM if he’s signing for 2-4 years? I really doubt it but a small part.
Losing two years in a row to the Florida Panthers could be a blessing in disguise, Connor probably realizes how important it is to build a stronger team around himself and his budding super star Leon Draisaitl, otherwise they may never fulfill their quest for Stanley.
Many of the Panthers top players are on team friendly contracts for the purpose of forging an NHL dynasty which must sound nasty to Connor & Leon. A small part of my brain also feels the glimmer twins view themselves as equals, a 4x $14M for McDavid isn’t out of the question an 8 year $14M contract would be complete and utter dedication.
As an aside, I don’t agree with the current narrative that all these Panthers are signing team-friendly discounts and leaving big money on the table.
I understand what Sam Bennett did in the playoffs but he 100% got paid in full for that – $8MM forever for a player with a career high of 51 points. I know he brings other elements (although he’s not that player in the regular season) but he got paid IN FULL.
Marchand had a good playoffs but, again, short sample coming off a big regression year that matches his age. $5.25MM is fine but six years taking him until he’s 43 and that contract has big money throughout, he’s unlikely to fully retire – maybe there is some LTIR at the end but he got PAID IN FULL.
Ekblad’s contract, in my opinion, is about market – I think he’s starting to regress early due to some tough miles on that body – his contract will “be fine” for most of it but I don’t see it as any sort of big discount.
What is clear is that they wholeheartedly want to keep the band together. Because they expect to win the cup for the third time in a row and keep it going as long as possible to be the next great dynasty.
I think Paul Coffey did some real good things with the defence and empowered them to “make plays” but, at the same time, from my 1000 foot view, Coffey was more of a motivator than a coach. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure his experience was beneficial and he taught the group things but I think:
1) he expected every d-man to do certain things that may have come easy to him but weren’t in the skill-set of everyone – not every d-man can skate or move the puck out of danger with no time like he could; and
2) he deployed them based on a premise of what he thought should work without regard to what was actually working, and not working – sometimes.
The Nurse/Kulak pairing, and not moving off it, despite eye test and number results was werid. Not moving off Ekholm/Bouchard despite Ekholm clearly not being able to handle that responsibility was weird.
Not using the data presented (Nurse/Walman and Kulak/Bouchard killing it) and moving to pairings that were having success, at least via goal share (and underlying possession type data).
I think Mark Stuart (who has talked about the great data that Parkatti present) could have a real impact.
I don’t think that Coffey’s influence on the Oiler defense is lost, I sure a happy medium will be found in his absence.
I personally hope that Coffey lets the new coaches do their job and does not sit up stairs and interfere when he sees things he does not agree with ..He had his at bat and it is now time to let the newbies take over..Maybe go back to Ontario and look after his dealerships for a few months and let the new coach get established and build some rapport with the defensemen .
What makes you think Coffey will undermine the new boss? Is it because he’s a sleazy car salesmen? I thought Coffey did a good job. Go back and check the comments when Coffey was hired it’s quite embarrassing how one of the greatest D-man and Oil was dumped on by the faithful in these parts before he coached 1 game. You sure don’t hear much from the Woody Cult anymore after 2 Cup Finals. I did think Coffey would unlock Nurse but unfortunately I don’t even think Sean Connery-Katherine-Zeta-Jones could crack that safe.
We know Coffey has “the ear of the owner” but I truly believe going forward he is out of the coach’s room and won’t be providing direct interference.
It has to be 8 years or it just gets harder to manage the roster and makes winning increasingly harder every year.
I don’t think you can say that he’s completely committed to winning here unless he does this.
Mathews aside, every franchise player does this.
I think there are many who agree with you, but that’s the thinking that brought an 8-year deal last time and management pissed it away and got themselves fired.
I don’t blame McDavid a bit if he lacks confidence in the organization. I also don’t think signing an 8 year deal takes away any power he has.
If he asks out, they will grant his wish and he’s even more valuable to other teams with years left on his deal.
If McDavid feel a lack of confidence in the organization, he could probably sign with the Panthers. If you can’t beat them than join them. But I don’t think this would ever cross his mind. The Panthers are going down, down, down.
I enjoy the sentiment. But please, explain.
I see nothing to explain.
Sure but he’s have to sign a contract for like league minimum which any contender he signs with for league minimum would probably win the cup anyway
As crazy as it sounds even if he did want to go to the Panthers I’m not so sure they’d want him. Not because of who he is, everyone knows the best on earth, but because they’d have to clear too much salary/depth to do so and that’s not how they’re constructed. They’ve proven throughput the east and twice in the cup final, their formula can beat top heavy teams.
It does NOT have to be eight years. It would be a foolish hill to die on.
The problem is never what you pay your best player(s). The problem is what you pay the players who are NOT your best player(s).
I wouldn’t necessarily die on that hill but I would fight hard for it.
Why would McDavid lack confidence in the organization?
As far as building teams that get in to, and far in, the playoffs – the organization is currently elite.
I think he has voiced his displeasure about the offer sheets
What has he voiced about the offer sheets?
In any event, I’m quite certain that no player is happy with every move/non-move management makes and I wouldn’t think one decision last season, in the situation, is causing McDavid to have a lack of confidence with management.
I don’t think this is true and its definitely not that black and white.
An 8-year deal has to price in close to a decade of cap increases – we know what’s happening the next two seasons and, while the rate of increase may not be as substantial, the projection is for growth.
Of course, he COULD technically just take $14MM X 8 but he has an unofficial obligation to other high end players to not assist in capping the upper range – that type of thing is real even if the overall piece of cake for the players does not change.
A 2-3-4 year deal likely comes with a lower AAV than an 8-year deal in this case which goes completely contrary to the premise above, right?
Agree, Bouchard is case in point. He signed for 4×10.5. Had they gone 8 it likely would have been 11.5-12 per.
For the longest time, there was no salary cap but the Oilers were a poor team that couldn’t compete salary wise with the rich teams.
Of course, right around the time the Oilers became a rich team under new ownership, boom, salary cap to level the playing field.