As the summer moves along, it’s a good idea to go back and look at the season just witnessed. As we drift from the scene of the crime, sometimes speculation and verbal move our opinions away from the flaming math of the season.
Here’s the PuckIQ versus elites for Edmonton defensemen after the 2019-20 campaign:
Adam Larsson played 34 percent of his five on five time (287 minutes, he was injured during the season) and the Oilers had a 47 percent Dangerous Fenwick share. That was the best number among regular Oilers defensemen relative to teammates for the season.
Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played the most actual minutes versus elites and were above or average compared to their fellow defensemen. Let’s look at last year, via Puck IQ:
The Oilers have a fine defensive group now, and it’s reflected here. Evan Bouchard’s numbers are all exceptional, but he still gets underrated by many. Mattias Ekholm has been a key play since he arrived, and I believe the Oilers should sign him.
Darnell Nurse is playing less versus elites than he did in 2019-20, and getting about the same results relative to his teammates. Jake Walman’s numbers above are reflecting a small sample size, I’m convinced Nurse-Walman is the truth and the light.
The reason I’m writing this today is Brett Kulak. Lots of talk about his future with the team, and it’s worth noting his successful time versus elites a year ago. He played less versus elites was than Bouchard, but about the same as Ekholm and Nurse. I get that Ekholm and Walman should be the priority signings on defense, but math is at the bar speaking words of wisdom about Brett Kulak. Let it be.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the roundtable with Declan Krueger and Donovan Paulson. Absolute verbal chaos, the equivalent of hyenas in front of microphones and I’m the zebra. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440.
What would Oilers give up get Fabian Lysell from Boston?
Damn! I LOVE the verbal chaos. Cannot wait.
How about calling out the best albums with a blue cover ? Mine is Megadeth ‘Rust in Peace’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5o8Daw1ZsY
Joni Mitchell’s Blue, Megadeth goes home devastated.
we must not forget Kinda Blue, Miles Davis
I’ll see your Joni Mitchell’s “Blue” and raise you one Who’s “Tommy.”
— when looking back at the season I feel the most glaring result (and one that has not been examined much) was Conner being 20 points behind the leader.
— sure he missed a few more games. Conner has to be the “best” player in the NHL in order for Edmonton to win IMO
— assuming full health a 100 point season from him isn’t good enough IMO.
— If we have already seen peak McD and 100 points is max we are in tough to win a cup IMO
— while I don’t believe we have seen peak McD it’s possible: he won’t age well in NHL IMO as speed leaves. Hall is a good proxy : gradually diminishing as his speed advantage erodes
A difference is that while Hall may have had straight ahead speed, he isn’t a great technical skater. Remember him bulldozing D on entries, or getting hammered on the boards? Lucic as an Oiler was one of the fastest skaters. It’s just he couldn’t accelerate quickly or turn
Connor’s skating stands alone in things that players do most, which isn’t straight ahead races that often
I have to disagree with this point. I think McDavid’s skating (in addition to hockey brain) will allow him to age better than most anyone else. Look at Marleau, Gartner, etc. heck even Chimera who seemed like they could play forever because they could always keep up even as the game got faster as a whole.
With Hall I think it was his injuries that have impacted his speed and not a general degradation of it on its own. While this is possible with McDavid, barring injuries I’d except him to have a speed advantage over most in the game until the day he decides to retire.
— we will see. McD is a different beast than the gretz Lemieux or Crosby (the three greatest I’ve seen)
— Maybe his game evolves true. But those three their calling card wasn’t blazing speed.
— It’s akin to Tiger : he was just much longer than anyone else (and had awesome tool kit)
— Just as Tigers length advantage receded so will McD’s as his speed diminishes.
— Doesn’t mean he can’t be an excellent player for a long time (like Marleau gartner etc) But I think it’s not appreciating just how incredible his speed advantage.
— He has to be the best though for the Oil to win IMO.
— Maybe some iteration in the fall season of his career he can win on a team set up another way…
No matter how good McDavid is, they cannot win with him alone. This is proven.
He can be neutralized in fair and unfair ways.
The rest of the team must win.
You put too much on McDavid. He throws everything he’s got into the game. You only need defence, interference specialists to slow him down. They are not better than him, but they interrupt, interfere, etc.
You seen this with your own eyes.
Then say McDavid didn’t get it done.
I can’t say how McDavid will age, but I agree with your point that last season he wasn’t good enough for the Oilers to win it all. 26 goals is not close. No reason that 40 shouldn’t almost be automatic. 50 should be his target
unfortunately we cant keep em all someone needs to to be on the third pair for a few million less
Should Ekholm be prioritized over Kulak?\
Of course, Ek has been the more valuable d-man over the last few years but will he be more valuable than Kulak starting in 2026/27 with Ekholm is 36 and Kulak is 32?
We saw in the SCF what could happen to Ekholm’s game with limited mobility and I think we can expect a drop in his skating at 36 and beyond – sure not to the level that groin injury took him but skating is often first to go.
Kulak is a high end skater and I don’t see a drop off there in the next 3-4 years – I think his game likely stays at the same level.
Now, Kulak probably gets $4.5MM – $5MM on the open market for 4-5 years – I mean, look at what Ceci signed for.
Is he more valuable on that deal that Ekholm will be for $5MM for 2-3 years?
Are those reasonable contract projections?
I wait on both these extensions but get Walman done ASAP.
I was all for a 2 year home town discount for Ekholm but now with the emergence of Walman it makes Ekholm expendable. I would pump and dump Ekholm or straight out trade him as he’s one of the few players that would be desirable. His trade value should at least be on the postive side and with the cap savings we could get a much better Goalie.
Not a bad idea at all. Oiler played fine without him last year. Love what he brought to the team since he arrived, but it may be time to move on
Last season I thought Ryan Lindgren might be a good addition and possibly Kulak being traded for him or this off-season. With the Walman signing coming out of nowhere Kulak is a great 3LD, in fact quite a luxury. Unless there’s an absolute upgrade I would not trade him this season and see how he fairs for the remainder of his contract.
The thing is that Ekholm might only be a great 3LD at this stage of his career. And Kulak might be the better option with Bouchard.
Kulak-Bouchard
Nurse-Walman
Ekholm-Emberson/Stecher/Regula
No doubt he’s been a key piece, an integral piece.
I would note that the Oilers made it to the SCF (and rolled through three rounds after the first two games) without Ekholm.
Little doubt he will be less of a key piece going forward. 35 heading in to this season and coming off a significant groin injury (and with a growing history of groin issues).
He would start his next contract at 36 years old – I’m not saying “don’t sign him”, I’m saying there is no need to rush and the next contract, if there is one, needs to reflect a reducing role due to reduced abilities.
Kulak is a good player, very good as 3 LD. Looking at a few other teams, the Oilers are spending more as a percentage of the cap on D than Florida or Carolina. As things change I don’t see how they can keep doing that. The goalie share probably goes up as does forward when Connor’s deal kicks in
It makes me think that you can have a puck moving D, but if the forwards aren’t good enough as a group (both ways) it isn’t enough
The problem is the amount of salary they are paying Nurse relative to his value. The potential problem is what they may pay to extend an aging and recently injured Ekholm. Kulak and Walman are very good investments.
Those are two big problems! The first is manifest, and the second is potential if not looming. I don’t envy managers having to move or walk away from good people because dollars don’t work – but, I do admire those who muster the tact and foresight to do it effectively (in personal and financial terms).
Looch lives. on PTO w STL.