I write this item about once a year, always tempted to call it ‘don’t fall in love with a dreamer’ but never do. If you’ve decided an uncertain Oiler, or a distant bell is going to make the Oilers roster, I encourage you to hold back your water. We don’t know what we don’t know, and what we do know (Kris Knoblauch is a button-down, risk-averse, coach) suggests favoring the veterans over the kids. Let’s have a chat.
CERTAIN OILERS
Man you run these tired old graphs out every year and there’s never any imagination. Oilers fans deserve more inspiring ideas! Perhaps the disconnect comes from your misunderstanding the purpose of certain, uncertain and distant bells. These are the names I believe Knoblauch will dress opening night, absent injuries or trades (or a massive step into the elevator shaft by a veteran). This shows that the roster is about 70 percent known at this time.
Are you sure about Savoie? Yeah. They cleared the decks for him and I can see the rookie playing with (at times) Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as his center. In the most extreme opening night roster, he gets the No. 3 right-wing job with (I believe) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as his center. Savoie is part of the future, unless a deadline trade of great significance pops up.
Vasily Podkolzin and Andrew Mangiapane combined for 22 goals last season, and you have them on the top two lines. Fail. Fail blog! Podkolzin with Draisaitl went 2.17 points-60 at five-on-five in about 500 minutes. I think that’s worth running back, at least often enough to make it part of the shuffle. Podkolzin fits Draisaitl’s game well. As for Mangiapane, in 2023-24 (at five-on-five) he hit 2.32 points-60 with Elias Lindhom and if he plays with McDavid I believe that number could be left in the dust this coming season.
UNCERTAIN OILERS
More addled thinking here. Ike Howard is a lock for the team. I think he makes it but it isn’t guaranteed. If the young man comes to camp and struggles, the best thing in the world for him is to start in Bakersfield. The Oilers can’t lose this player, he is too important. It’s a poke from college level to NHL. He does the toughest thing in the game (score goals) but Ike Howard needs to walk before they make him run. No hurry, no fail.
Who will Knoblauch check down to? Mattias Janmark? The coach might run a left wing depth chart of Mangiapane, Podkolzin, Trent Frederic and Janmark. That isn’t out of the range of possibles based on this careful coach.
Man I hate it when you smoke the drapes. Look, everyone wants the kids to play, and thrive. However, that doesn’t have to happen opening night. Janmark is safe. I agree he’s vulnerable, but the GM hasn’t traded him yet. Janmark could make the team and Howard could start in Bakersfield. That’s my opinion, but I don’t believe it’s outside reasonable.
DISTANT BELLS
Is there anyone on this list you see playing in the NHL in 2024-25? You always start with the defense, because 11 or 12 guys could play. So, Cam Dineen is a real candidate, and maybe Riley Stillman too. If Beau Akey thrives? Maybe a cup of coffee. Up front, James Hamblin has done everything asked in the AHL and lacks only scoring ability when he’s in the NHL. I also think Quinn Hutson could find his way via strong Bakersfield work and some luck. I’m flummoxed by Viljami Marjala’s numbers and if he’s real then maybe there’s a place.
Marty Walsh and Ron Hainsy confirmed on 32 Thoughts (dropped this morning) that, while some aspects of the new CBA will come in to place for this season some others before September 16, 2026, those related to player contracts will not come in to force early.
So the changes to max terms and max signing bonus percentage, etc. will NOT be in place for next season’s signing season (well, until mid September).
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, because we know there is one.
What did the Oilers promise to Howard to make him go from demanding a trade from a great team, in a great org, in arguably the most desirable area to live in the NHL to signing a 3-year ELC?
In other words, how many games were promised? Jesse Puljujarvi says hello.
A guarantee of power play minutes has also surfaced in the past.
Jesse was 18 when he made his debut and didn’t speak much English. Howard is 21 that’s a huge age difference when it relates to Hockey.
I wonder if the Edmonton Oilers;
1) a top team in the league
2) with a top arena in the league
3) with center Leon Draisaitl signed for 8 more years
4) with center Connor McDavid about to sign for, likly, 3-4 more years (plus 1)
5) with a top offensive d-man in the league about to enter his prime signed for 4 more years; and
6) exactly one locked in top 6 winger (who is 33 and coming off wrist surgery)
would be a desirable place for a 21 year old offensive sniper to play and put up numbers and get paid….?
As you have noted, the supposedly button down risk averse coach who favors veterans got his team to the Stanley Cup final 2 years in a row. His team has now lost twice in the final to a coach who would seem to be even more button down and risk averse and who also favors veterans.
Anton Lundell is the only player in Florida’s line up the past 2 Stanley Cups finals that has a birth date more recent than Holloway (by a few days), Broberg, Bouchard, MacLeod and Podkolzin.
Maurice’s GM, at the trade deadline, went and got him the soon to be 31 years old Seth Jones and the 37 year old Marchand and he used them extensively at the expense of younger players from the regular season.
Knoblauch uses the players he believes that overall are likely to do more to help the team win in the short term. Would a risk averse coach have kept Podkolzin in the line up over Arvidsson and Skinner?
If Knoblauch believes that on balance Howard does more to help the team win than say Janmark, then he’ll play. The young players will get a little more leeway if the Oilers get off to a decent start and any rookie inconsistency is not costing many games.
Rookie/sophomore schooled twice in a row by THE veteran. How will losing Gully affect this team?
The hope needs to be that at least Savoie & Philp are both NHL ready. they’ve paid their dues. It won’t take long to see if Howard is ready for prime time a little time with the Condors will do no harm if required. All of Janmark, Kapanen, Lazar & Jones have enough NHL experience to fill in as the youngsters learn their trade. Is it really all that big a deal to rush them into regular ice time if they aren’t ready? The pre-season gears up for the regular season and the regular season gears up for the run for the cup. Training camp is around the corner; I see no reason to get too excited yet.
Off The top of my head it looks like skilled players from the Colleges the last few years are doing fine without being marinated. Snuggerud-Caulfield-Hutson-Gauthier-Will Smith-Cooley-Perrault-Leonard-Hagens etc I’m pobably missing another half-dozen that will jump from the NCAA to NHL. Also Howard won the Hobey Baker Award this goes to the best player in all of College. If you really want to send Howard to the nasty AHL with a target on his back don’t be surprised if he gets injured that is of course if he doesn’t have Clattenburg as his linemate.
Go figure – I was thinking of the same two first lines, but then put the other “confirmed” all on the third line – lot of $ there I know, but hey why not give it a chance. Put Howard to start on the 4th with Janmark and Philp but of course lot of other “uncertains” could slot in. What do you think?
One would think that Berezkin is NHL ready, but he has the luxury of staying in the KHL another season to make certain he doesn’t see AHL time. If Howard needs to start out on the fourth line maybe he’d be better off playing top line minutes with the Condors instead.
Speaking of a family affair: Tyson Beukeboom, daughter of Jeff, is competing for Canada at the Women’s Rugby World Cup going on right now in jolly old England.
With the additions of Savoie-Frederic-Howard-Mangiapane-Tomasek-Lazar-Jarventie I’m starting to see a theme of hard on the forecheck players. To be be effective you need players that can skate. Also with more speed especially on the outside we should be able to draw 15-20 percent more penalties. If this team can’t score collectively ar least 300 goals then we need a Coach with more vision.
In the past seasons, 5 teams have scored more than 300 goals in a season. There was not one team to score 300 last season and only 2 teams over 280. Oilers were one of the teams.
I would say that the expectation being 300 goals is highly unrealistic, is it possible? Sure, but not a realistic expectation. 275 or so is probably more the realistic.
Its easy to add goals from the peanut gallery with the players we have. Our Powerplay was 12th with only 51 goals. If PP looks off use PP2 and quit trying to force the issue +7 we should draw more PP attempts=more goals with added speed +7 we only scored 5 SH goals give green light +6 practice how to shoot on a open net instead passing it in +5. Quit trying to nurse leads and going into a shell +10. That’ll get us to 300. With Walman and maybe Regula on the backend we should collectively be better transporters of the puck which will lead to odd man rushers +10. With the addition of hound dogs like Mangiapane-Podjolzin-Howard-Frederic-Tomasek-Savoie-Jarventie should lead to a increase in turnover goals + 10. Last year we had 265 Goals. With our squad we should be able to score 320 goals a 55 goal increase from the trap Oilers of last year.
Sly & the Family Stone. I was 12 when I saw the Woodstock movie. It blew my mind. The most vivid memory? Sly Stone with long-fringed sleeves, exhorting everyone to “take it higher!” He created a beautiful band in a troubled time, eventually succumbing to his own troubles, undoing that beautiful family affair.
It is nice to look at the roster options & not have a concern that JF Jacques has to be put in the top 6, or that Petrell is going to a be a PP1 stalwart.
This may also have been the first year in a long time where bottom 6ers weren’t gifted big contracts in July. Lots of competition throughout the line up for good players to contribute, but no desperate need for luck to fill a gap.
If a young man with some size, embraced 12-14 minutes of work every second day.
During those 14 minutes;
body checked 4x a night
chased every loose puck
backchecked hard every shift
blocked 2 shots a game
drove the blue paint everyshift
glove washed two opponents a game
put his team’s result first
He could earn 5x what his mom or dad make for 40 hours of work.
or he could go work as an assistant junior B coach in small town Alberta for $35,000/year.
Coach K.K is not a Bowman hire. Stan is doing a mini rebuild on the front end with youngsters. Coack K.K better get on the same page or else he’ll find himself in the same line as Woody at the bread bank. Howard and to a lesser extent Savoie are going to get some massive pushes as Bownan has banned the usage of the word marinating and the term we don’t have time to learn on the job.
Knoblauch has been Oilers coach for two seasons, made the final twice. He has earned the roster he believes in. I also believe both men will get a push, but that doesn’t mean they both have feature roles opening night. That would be unwise unless they show well in preseason. Savoie has the inside track, the GM flushed the veteran competition. Howard? Not so much. Janmark is still here. We’ll see.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The Coach always goes before the G.M. The regular season and playoffs are 2 seperate animals. What concerns me of K.K is that our Goals for have come down 2 years in a row being down a whopping 66 goals off the pace of 2 years ago. Enough with the 2-1 regular season wins turn the boys lose if Skinner and Pickard need to be babied to the point that McDavid and Leon have to be muckers then Do something Bowman. We should be the highest scoring team in the league only 26 goals by McDavid is a crying shame. You know as well as I do how fast the window can slam shut for decades and decades if things go South.
agreed. I wonder if this agreement will be flagged “for approval” ?
There is every indication that Bowman will be extending Knoblauck this season – they’ve both been asked and alluded to it.
Obviously I have lots of time for Podz to get some 2LW minutes with Drai but I also have lots of time for him to being a very strong 3rd liner.
He ended up with 10 points in 22 playoff games and played more than half his time away from Drai. Also, importantly, he went 8-3 goals in the playoffs away from Drai. Point here is he thrived in a bottom six role and he also showed that he has some further room to grow in his offensive game.
Another player with versatility to play up and down the lineup.
If I remember correctly, away from Lars Eller, he had fantastic numbers and they cratered with Eller – I think that’s what we figured out earlier in the summer.
In any event, just looking at his traditionally numbers, aside from the 35 goal year, he seems to be a 15-18 goal guy, year after year after year.
I’m fairly certain he’ll start in the top six but, ultimately, I think he likely slots best as a very good 3rd liner and here is hoping that the more “dynamic” young players, over the course of the season, solidify spots in the top 6.
What I do expect from Mangiapane is solid and steady veteran 2-way play and tenacity on the forecheck – shift after shift – something Arvidsson never gave us – we never knew what he was going to give us from shift to shift let alone game to game.
Thank you for the updated depth charts LT.
I can’t wait to see how the Condors roster looks to start the season.
I think it’s going to be the most interesting Condors team in years.
Clattenburg and Samanski will be with worth the price of admission.
In addition to seeing if the likes of Grubbe and Petrov can re-establish themsleves on the last year of their ELCs, we:
1) have the two NCAA signings, Hutson and Carfagna (the former of which some/many think has a real shot, maybe even this season;
2) the hoard of “decent bet” signings from Europe, Leppanen, Samanski, Majala (for first of which some think has a shot, maybe even this season);
3) a couple legit “on the cusp” players that likely just need to stay healthy to earn NHL time, in Jarventie and Regula
4) a decent pedigree goalie coming off a very good season in a mid-tier league in Europe coming over to try and steal AHL starts, in Jonsson
5) a couple of rookie pros in Akey and Cllatenburg starting their pro careers, the former with a real chance to be middle roster player within a couple of years.
Can’t wait!
A plus is that versatility. I’m not sure if he’ll get 1RW time with McDavid (although I guess if Hyman misses games its an option) but I think he has the perfect skill-set to play 2RW with Drai but also can be a very effective 3RW with any of Nuge, Frederic or Henrique as the center.
I agree he is all but certain – it would be shocking to me if he wasn’t in the opening night roster – a hell of a year in the AHL, solid all-game development.
Tomasek showing well at camp could put himself in the conversation for a top 9 RW spot as well…..