It’s cooler this morning, autumn creeping in. This is my favourite time of year, although there are heavy clouds hanging in the air that will arrive in November. It’s strange how the seasons impact a person. I find fall both beautiful and sad, but it fills my soul far more than summer. Maybe I’m just getting old.
I’ll have more Riesen to Believe thumbnail sketches on the weekend, we are starting to get information trickling and hopefully any PTO’s get leaked in the next few hourse. Meanwhile, a couple of changes to the ‘certain’ pile of roster candidates heading to or in Edmonton. I’ve moved Zach Hyman and Mattias Ekholm to ‘uncertain’ due to injury worries.
I don’t know these men won’t make opening night, but it helps to contemplate roster options by putting them in a spot they’ll possibly land. It allows us to discuss players who will benefit from those injuries.
This is the uncertain list, with Hyman and Ekholm added. The players in bold stand to benefit most, in my opinion. I think Ike Howard makes the team and am sure both David Tomasek and Kasperi Kapanen are in better spots today. We’ll see. I also think Leppanen, Stecher, Emberson and Regula are enjoying a slight uptick in fortune but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Expect surprises.
I see Ryan Rishaug had a conversation with Connor McDavid, and believe we all have our feeling about how things are progressing. Oilers fans have a lot of anxiety about this situation, I’m not going to add to it.
I will say management giving him all kinds of room is the right call, and I knew something was up when Bob Stauffer didn’t tweet a slap back immediately after John Shannon’s comments. I’ve been reading tea leaves from this organization since the 1970’s, and would suggest this is a sensitive time for all involved.
Connor McDavid has earned the right to make his decision on his own terms. That’s what free agency affords every player who reaches this point. You don’t need me to ruffle your tailfeathers with my opinion, because that’s what it is: an opinion. We wait and we hope things get done in a timely fashion, while also recognizing that nothing lasts forever, even a brilliant hockey career. I’ve known what Connor McDavid is since before the draft, and certainly during that 2015 orientation camp when he flew by like a rocket before I had a chance to sit down. I have interviewed McDavid, he measures his words and is sincere. I’m not sure which way he is leaning, but will say he’s worked hard for a decade in Oilers silks and earned this time to reflect. All the best to this young man, no matter how it turns out.
Today on the Lowdown, we’ll have Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Declanations, plus many thoughts on McDavid, the Oilers and last night’s Eagles win. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube (here).
Predicting the 5 biggest surprises of Edmonton Oilers training camp this fall
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6598076/2025/09/05/edmonton-oilers-training-camp-2025-surprises/
If you predict the surprise was it REALLY a surprise?
Yes! 🙂
LT, I think you should write about how the trade deadline rules will, or might affect roster building right now.
Will the best trade deadline targets be in the 1-3m range?
If you lose a great player, you can only shop in the under 3.8M bin?
How does a team best position knowing they will be unlikely to improve of fill gaps at trade deadline without losing a player?
Should a team stash a couple more 1m players in AHL?
What will be the most important currency? Picks?
What im wondering is…….is there some type of strategy here that Golden Nights already have a plan to exploit?
LT, I have a replay post that continues to say waiting for approval. I have reread it several times and have no clue why it is being held up. A clear explanation would be helpful. It is very frustrating.
Spec spoke to Hyman who is still back in Toronto rehabbing.
Going through the process and the checks – doing lots of skating and stickhandling but no shooting yet – that’s the last check.
Not sure if he’ll be on-ice for opening of camp but said to ask him again in a week.
i doubt he starts the season but hope he gets in after a month or so
KHL opening game, Berezkin held off the score sheet in a 2-1 SO win – he did score in the SO and had 3 shots and almost 23 minutes of ice time.
Mercy, I truly hope he comes over next year.
Can’t wait for him to slide in to the middle six next year – he says he plans to come over, straight from the mouth.
Per Curlock:
The most interesting thing to me on defence is if Regula will show management that they can’t risk him on waivers and win that opening night job over Stecher (who they very well could lose on waivers – he’s legit value at league min).
McDavid was VERY clear again that he has no issues with the direction of the team or their ability to contend over the next few years. His decision has nothing to do with the team in that respect.
He also did say things about how much he puts in the game and needing to get paid what he’s earned/is worth but knowing there is a cap, etc.
I think this decision is truly about what makes sense for him to get paid but leave cap space on the table, what term makes sense with what AAV – I also think he likely struggles with knowing the numbers that he could get and not wanting to take too much more than Leon (but knowing that Kaprizov, for example, could be at $16MM soon and I do think Connor believes he should be the highest paid – probably him and Drai).
I don’t agree on Mcdavid. If he was to come out and say he thinks that Edmonton can’t win, bias NHL and officiating. I would accept it.
Right now I think he’s selfish. He was part of the problem in the final. I trade him right now. He’s gone first blip the team has. Wish we’d got Crosby instead. At least he has loyalty. Screw Mcdavid. Hope he’s traded and never wins a thing.
Reading this post – I just flashed back to 2015 when the crowd was counting championships and throwing Taylor Hall under the bus for not getting it done.
Personally I think hes deciding about the money. Not how much he can get, but how it can best work for team success. If he sacrifices dollars, will it pay off? Can’t judge that yet.
If he signs 8 years what affect will cap hit have under new rules? Not sure yet.
He has learned he cannot win it by himself, he needs a team, How can he help build the team? Without bringing in big trade deadline players?
After ten years, Crosby (and others) were in different positions. McDavid is very loyal, and planning on winning with his team. I have no doubt on this point.
Then Why does he keep fanning the flames. He didn’t have to say anything. He could have said my agent and the team are working on it.
It looks to me like he’s greasing the wheels. One bad year and he’s gone.
A team first guy, in my opinion, would have signed the contract and professed love for his team. He doesn’t even have to mean it. He has complete control over his fate at any time.
This could be a massive distraction that hurts the team and he knows it.
If he signs I’ll retract my statements but I still don’t like his methods.
Otherwise trade him high. The Oilers have never done that though. Probably don’t know how.
I’m not sure he’s learned he can’t win it by himself. Sure looked like they dropped the team game quick in the final.
I have a lot of thoughts about the finals. I don’t think they dropped the team game, it was more about the other team had a game plan that Oilers could not matched. And yes, executed a game plan designed specifically to frustrate, antagonize and defeat high skill teams.
How is he being selfish? The guy has played damn well over the tenure of his contracts with the team, sure they’ve come up short in the Cup Finals but that’s not solely on 97. He’s earned his dollars and choice to sign when and wherever he wishes.
Would it be a pisser if he does leave? Sure, but it’s not a world ended for me. I Cheer for the team, not the individuals.
Clearly you’re missing my point. My post was about cheering for the team.
I got that, just didn’t understand the reasoning for taking a swipe at McDavid. If he stays and wins, bueno. If he moves on and wins elsewhere, good on him.
By denigrating the motives and character of the team’s best player based on circumstantial evidence. You want players to be loyal to the team and to the fans but you turn on him with just a hint that he might do something you don’t like.
I’m just calling it as I see it. You can call it whatever you like.
In regard to Ekholms comments on his contract situation:
I find this very bothersome, and perhaps it is due to the larger contract (McDavid) issue but perhaps not.
Just because the “you have to take care of the big boys first” is no reason that a conversation does not take place with Ekholm. He assumes “then we’ll talk” Well its September and there is zero reason that there has not been significant communication.
Dereck Ryan – not commenting on being sent to AHL but how it was managed. this is usually about communication
Dylan Holloway – uncertainty that Oilers were not in discussion with him led to signing the offer sheet
No discussion with Corey Perry
Trading Evander Kane with Coffey openly criticizing the trade
Jackson signing Arvi and Skinner on an opportunity whim
Nobody knows who or why Josh Brown was signed
Connor McDavid?
Is there a rift somewhere?
So…the Oilers have not actually relinquished the rights to Copponi, Määttä, Münzenberger and Mazura just yet, even though the August 15 deadline has come and gone.
In order to become UFA’s, college players have to submit paperwork to the NHL saying they’ve either graduated or are no longer enrolled in college. Because none of the four have yet done so–and more than a dozen others–they remain Oilers property.
Even though the linked article is more than a couple weeks old, Puckpedia still shows all four players on the Oilers’ reserve list.
Ekholm has been on the ice for practice skates and early intel is no health issues.
Neither Bouch nor Nuge have been on the ice in Edmonton yet (or Hyman, of course).
Gregor:
“Absolutely I want to stay in Edmonton, but I know you have to take care of the big boys first. Once he (McDavid) gets done I’m sure we will talk. I’m getting up there (age) but I know what I bring,” Ekholm on entering the final year of his deal.
Ek says he had a torn abductor – kind of alluded to just trying to survive out there in the SCF (they shouldn’t have played him is my thought).
He feels great now – on ice with guys again today.
I think he can go back to “certain”.
Agreed on not playing him. They do this over and over. A healthier player is almost always a better bet than a guy seriously limited. If you don’t trust your bench get one you do
So Friedman’s comments today, Spectors article and Rishaug’s interview are interesting to say the least on McDavid.
Is this as simple as McDavid waiting to see how good Savoie, Howard are this season? And seeing how Stu responds as goalie to start with new coach? Less about another move or two, and more about seeing if the young guys make him a believer that they’ll be big contributors over the next 5 years.
he has repeatedly said long term winning is key. he clearly said he believes they have best shot to win this year. So he won’t waive his no move. McDavid will be here this season More if he would be open to sign and trade in off season.
Painfully I don’t expect him to sign until just before Christmas. When he sees how the younger guys respond and how Stu calms the net, and if they struggle out of the gate he will see what Bowman does to address it (with younger players he believes can help him win multiple cups over his next contract)
I felt the 32 thoughts pod was very helpful. 97 wants to win, wants an organization that will find every way to reach that goal and will provide the foundation to make it happen. Between that and what he said yesterday, I think you are right. The team needs to come out of the gate strong and give him reason to believe there is sustain there (no selling the future for the present this year).
I think the playoff cap actually helps the Oilers significantly. It means there is no waiting for a solution in March, but ensuring the best team is iced in October. Early trades will happen from smart teams recognizing the value of cap accrual is nil for playoff bound teams. It might make it easier to offload big contracts to teams outside the race however.
McDavid said himself there is nothing he needs to see from management as far as the team goes.
Been meaning to post regarding your comments on long term winning for a few weeks. I’ve been following the 32 teams links on the NHL app since early August. Most all the good teams with great players speak of “these athletes are wired differently” and “nobody sees the efforts behind the cameras” and of course “they just want to win”. THIS is the most significant factor for a McDavid extension. He wants to win and cement his legacy. He wants to do it with the Oilers. Management needs to prove that they are capable of providing his biggest dream into reality. It seems like a cliche but it’s the only factor. Godspeed Bowman, make it so.
I get that Oilers management has been – shall we say – “spotty” through most of McDavid’s years, so I can understand the frustration and caution. But still, these comments don’t strike me as “team first.” Should a team captain talk/think that way?
— yeah I agree it’s not really “captainy” when your in camp and your clearly : “I’m not sure if I’m all in besides wanting to win the cup for sure this year”.
The thing that concerns me isn’t his contract, it’s starting the season off having the right mindset, and the distraction isn’t helping. The Oilers get worked up pretty easily, seem to put too much pressure on themselves, and that affects performance I think. Might have had to do with the slow starts to the season. One or two players being injured or not 100% should not derail a team this good
You look at the Panthers and what is in media about them, they seem way more chill. That doesn’t mean I don’t hate them :). I’m not sure if Connor can, but just show up ready to do your job, as the coaches are asking, and have fun. It’s a fun game. Don’t over think it. It’s a long season, and being too intense over time is mentally tiring
That raises the question of what the Oilers would/could do if Savoie and Howard are not immediately impactful and Skinner continues to be Skinner.
With virtually no cap space and a dearth of trade assets, how could that be rectified?
I think maybe William of Occam had the answer your looking for, the simplest explanation.
After a second devastating loss he needed time to unwind and recenter by taking the summer off and not seriously considering the upcoming season.
After Leon’s wedding is close to training camp and time to gear up for the season, including getting the extension out of the way so it isn’t a distraction.
He knows he will get whatever he asks for so he has to decide what’s best for him, his family and the team.
That requires him to pick cap hit and term which he needs to consider before he sets the contract with his ask.
He’s taking his time because he has the burden to get it right, so he is discussing it with the relevant people.
This fits with what we know of his personality, his verbal, and what Occam says.
Stauff alluded to expecting the Oilers to add on the waiver wire in early October – they were talking about goaltending when he said that.
A caller alluded to 2 X $1.25MM for Podz and Stauff said no chance. At least $500K higher. I agree. Low 2’s for term. His floor is set.
A call alluded to 2 X $4MM for Ek and Stuff suggested Overhardt likely things he can get 3 years for Ek – even at 36. That one scares me.
— shoot I had what I thought was good post about contract status stuck in “spam”
It is possible, if you used the owners name, it got caught by the filter. The filter isn’t always consistent since it is in a couple of your posts below but I have had posts held up for review but if I copy and repost with the name changed to “the owner” instead of his actual name it goes through no issues.
it really makes no sense that his name is still on the list for unacceptable words.
— cMd has earned the right to decide
— managements strategy that “we will let him decide” is either a smoke screen or incompetence or a way to deflect what they know will occur.
— Managements job is to convince our captain that he ought to sign for max 8 years as that’s the most desirable outcome for the franchise.
— I think they are giving themselves an out by telegraphing “hey he gets to decide”.
1) It’s the most desirable outcome for the franchise because of what 8 years means for the valuation of the enterprise
2) it’s the most desirable outcome for the franchise because as the cap grows they will have a longer competitive window as his contact becomes a relative bargain.
— So I get that projecting “we will give him all the time he needs” is being pitched as a being the nice guy. But that’s not how business works.
— Max term is best result for the franchise owner throws kitchen sink to make it happen.
— I get media gets fed and fans listen to an alternative scenario
— From Conners perspective I get why he doesn’t want to commit for 8 years and I won’t blame if he signs for less.
— I will however blame the organization more and won’t buy the “we have to respect his choice”.
— It would be a fail and sub optimal by the organization if he signs for less than 8 years
— no verbiage or recasting if he signs shorter changes reality that organization loses if no max.
— The owner isn’t going to be happy with a “well he got to decide”. The owner wants what’s best for him. In this case both the owner and fans are aligned : 8 years is best.
We wait
No one is talking about eight years. It could happen, but my suspicion is that you’ll be disappointed at the outcome. McDavid’s prime years are behind him, he wants to land on a winner. The question is does he feel Edmonton is that team? Bowman has added pieces, it may not be enough. An organization can only pretzel itself so much, and I do think the Oilers have been doing that for a long time.
If McDavid leaves, the world will keep turning. Management has to be looking past the McDavid contract, and planning for life without him. The organization can’t follow the McDavid plan because he may not be here. So, letting him decide and then taking action is far better than further compromising the team in hopes he sees it as good enough. Don’t overpay for a goaltender who isn’t a clear upgrade would be an example.
— Im prepared to be disappointed. And agree it’s been telegraphed.
— Main point is it’s a fail full stop by the organization. Looking at it through the business lense as Katz would : recognize that it’s a failure no matter how it gets pitched or deflected by the current management team.
— Not signing 8 years is a tell. One that many have opined on.
— I don’t know what I do t know but I do know that if I was him I can see why he’s not decided.
— I know what I need to do but I don’t know if I have the strength to do it”
All great points. I think Katz would be pushing, but the Oilers 10-year track record with McDavid is a downbeat.
— I also am just fascinated by this topic as the financial implications and valuation as well as the relationship between management ownership and players is in full display.
— Hockey teams are akin to boutique family owned businesses: so there is a lot at stake and a lot of its future as we emerged from the DoD
The team has seven playoff appearances in his 10 seasons, (after joining a team that was 28th out of 30 with 62 point) 2 division finals, 1 conference final and 2 Stanley Cup finals with 4 of those five in the last 4 seasons. During the early part of that tenure, the team had 2 of its top 3 defenseman at the time incur career altering injuries and had a 3rd suffering a devastating loss to his family. McDavid signed a somewhat reduced post ELC contract, but then unprecedented events entirely outside the control of the NHL caused the salary cap to flatline for over 6 seasons causing more cap limitations than any cap errors they made themselves. Against this, the team has been right there and getting really close to the ultimate goal.
Obviously that goal is to win the Stanley Cup, but to call the track record a downbeat is excessively harsh. The Oiler were arguably the second best team in the playoffs the last 3 seasons and top 4 for the last 4. They have so far failed on their mission to win the Stanley Cup, but they are not failures as an organization, team or individuals.
— stuff stuck in “spam”. I didn’t use any bad words : promise !
I think the organization just doesn’t want to push him away. He’s a keeper. It may be as simple as that.
— yeah but push hard for max. I’m sure behind scenes that’s what Katz is doing. He not just going to defer to this to management to say “well we respect him and his decision” IMO
— 8 years is worth a ton more to the owner
Unfortunately for management, when you’re negotiating with the best player in the league, the ball is not in your court.
He has 31 other teams that are happily willing to sign him if he were to let them, the management has 1 player to sign, they aren’t able to leverage the “there are multiple players similar to you, we want you but you better make a decision quick because we will sign someone else” scenario.
Mcdavid gets all the time he wants because he is in control. When you are 1 of 1, you have 100% leverage.
I understand that the org would like to sign him for 8 years, but if he doesn’t want to sign any 8 offer period, no matter the offer or structure, how can that be their fault?
— “it’s not my fault” is what they are pitching
— if the oilers were better run for the last 10 years of his tenure there would not be a hesitation to resign (that’s why FLA resigns all their guys who can’t wait to put pen to paper)
— that’s why the owner would be involved: he’s not going to accept the “we will wait” narrative when it’s his equity valuation. The fans seem to be comfortable with this. But the owner behind scenes isn’t being idle waiting to hear back IMO
— Sure he still might not sign long term.
Can you imagine the recruiting (tampering) that would go on in the Team Canada dressing room if McDavid is not signed by the Olympics?
I’m much more concerned about a post-Olympic let down than that.
The Oilers have unfortunately let winning what I’ll describe as “winning their Cup” lead to disappointment.
Beating the Flames. Making the Finals the first time. Let downs after both.
And after Four Nations last year as well.
McDavid cares about the Olympics…and unless you are a true great, having two big prizes on your radar for one year with that much responsibility can be a real test.
We’ll see what he’s made of.
— I’m totally in the minority on this but Men’s Olympic Hockey doesn’t do it for me
— It takes away from the athletes in other sports where the Olympics truly is what they trained for all their sporting life
— The Olympics is a gangster criminal racket that generates so much additional money with the hockey games
— But kudos to so many of the players who clearly value the opportunity to represent their country : for no money (and help the IOC get richer off their backs).
— And I get why the NHL would want to have Hockey shine on an international presence that they don’t have like say NFL or NBA
Everyone will be recruiting Crosby too.