One of my favourite activities each winter is watching AHL games online. I have several reasons to do so, including articles I write at The Athletic involving Oilers prospects. I also watch my friend Alex Thomas call Hartford Wolf Pack games, and sometimes I’ll watch the Marlies or the Providence Bruins because I love the game.
This season is shaping up to be a great one for the Bakersfield Condors. In the minors, it’s vital to have strong centers. Teams will pay a significant amount more on a contract for a center who has offensive ability and a two-way focus. It’s why Noah Philp is a waiver worry and James Hamblin would be if he were bigger and had a little more scoring ability.
The reason centers with experience and a range of skill are vital is the same reason veteran defensemen and goaltenders are badly needed. An AHL team needs to win games, but the real key is developing players.
This fall, Samuel Jonsson, Beau Akey, Damien Carfagna, Quinn Hutson, Viljami Marjala, Josh Samanski and Connor Clattenburg are going to get playing time. These young men need mentors. I count Matt Tomkins, Riley Stillman, Cam Dineen, Hamblin and possibly Philp as the group who could mentor the next group of youngsters.
I know many of you don’t consider waivers a big deal, but Stan Bowman does as some of the ‘end of the roster’ players like Philp are going to be tough calls. Who will play center for the Condors if Philp isn’t there? Hamblin, Jayden Grubbe, Samanski and crickets?
No. Rem Pitlick and Matt Copponi are AHL-only contracts and both could play significant roles on the Condors. Both are good hockey players too, and it isn’t out of the realm of possibility one or both earns an NHL deal down the line. A fun season ahead for Condors fans, and Oilers fans who love the AHL.
On the Lowdown today, Jason Gregor will be our feature guest at 1:20 and we’ll talk Elks, Bills and of course Oilers. We’ll also talk during the show about possible replacements for Zach Hyman while he’s out with injury for the first month or so of the season. Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube (here).
New for The Athletic: Which Oilers wingers could step up in Zach Hyman’s early-season absence?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6608389/2025/09/08/oilers-right-wingers-zach-hyman-injury/
While I want Zach Hyman in the lineup (& especially during the playoffs), his absence early season is a blessing: so many question marks that we will now get a better look at, and especially with McDavid.
I’m not in a panic about fast or slow starts. I’d much rather see the question marks getting an opportunity to prove themselves as necessary pieces for the real season.
ps. I like your thinking on Philp. I’m a fan. On wing or at centre, I want to see him get minutes. Same with Tomasek.
Watch what you wish far. Zach is no spring chicken at thirty three. If there’s any snags in rehab or if he just loses strength-mobility in his hand this could be the start of the end of his career.
Oil are a skill team, it takes time every year to sort out the kinks. It causes serious heartburn every year and a fire drill to get into contention. Zach out will be helpful but there needs to be urgency from the start.
We started 0-3 last year and were chasing all year. Calgary was hot on our tail for the last playoff spot with 10 games remaining if Leon doesn’t turn into Messier the last 5 minutes to tie it and then win it in OT who knows what happens. Pickard saved our goose to make the playoffs yet K.K starts a lost Skinner against a good L.A team. Anyhow what I’m trying to say is we need to bring it the first 20 games and get some breathing room especially since our best players will have a hectic Olympic schedule.
I was listening to one of the many pundits recently talking about how after 2024 SCF there was heartbreak; after 2025, anger. Was last fall’s slow start a heartbreak hangover? Will this fall be fuelled by a summer of simmering anger?
I do think a locker room of angry vets from ‘24 and ‘25 might be what the Dr. ordered. Lots of “compete.” I’m not concerned about a stumble out of the gate, or fans’ heartburn.
This could be the recipe a freshly signed Connor some pissed off vets and some hungry rookies. I thought we had the best forward group on paper since the eighties last year yet they fizzled in game 5-6. This year I’m expecting huge years from Connor and Leon they’re both going to have linemates that forecheck like demons. mangipane-Savoie-Howard will all get 20 plus Podkolzin-Tomasek 15 plus. Buckle up we’re going to score 45 more goals as a team this year.
Savoie, Howard, Frederic, Tomasek, Jarvenite, Mangiapane, Henrique…..?
Not certain what you’re asking, it’s all in the article.
Wasn’t really asking anything specifically, despite the question mark.
It was my list of some candidates and, I guess, asking the community for thoughts on the list.
I read the piece at The Athletic, as always.
Bouchard has joined the skates today – still no sign of Nuge or Walman – Nuge had the SCF broken hand and we know Walman got hurt late in the season and was never near 100% for the playoffs.
Are you watching the skates? If so, are you seeing anything interesting?
I think it was Gregor who was talking about “lots of one-timers.” Shooting. Not passing, play making.
I’m in Calgary so not possible
I see a lot of talk about how the NHLPA wants McDavid to get the highest contract possible, but I’m not sure why McDavid would go out of his way to fulfill the NHLPA’s wishes.
If McDavid takes maximum money, it will hurt the Oiler’s ability to get over the hump and finally win in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Also, isn’t this the same NHLPA that doesn’t seem to do enough to protect skilled elite players by not actively fighting selective refereeing or repeat headhunters?
If I were McDavid (which I’m not and never could be as I can’t comprehend everything he’s considering at the moment), I wouldn’t consider the NHLPA’s weird expectations at the cost of bringing the cup back to Edmonton (and Canada)!
The role of most unions is to advance the collective compensation/benefit with little regard for the future/stability of the organization. And they are not always pushing for safety as this can infringe on rights/freedoms – there is often a fine balance here.
Why didn’t I read about the NHLPA lobbying for Crosby to take more when he was in his prime?
Social media reach?
Crosby agreed to his extension with Pittsburgh in June 2012, before he even reached the date he could sign. The deal was signed on July 1, 2012, the first day of free agency and also for when extensions could be signed. There was very little time for the press to even discuss the negotiations, let alone to dig around for rumors about what Sidney would sign for and what others thought about it..
Add in, the NHLPA was already starting to prepare for new CBA negotiations later that month (without knowing what the NHL stance was on the key elements of the deal). So they had a lot of other things on their mind. As well, with 12 and 14 year contracts and more flexibility on annual salary sculpting prior the 2013 CBA, there was a lot more options to manage AAV.
I am also not sure we have that much real evidence that the NHLPA is putting any heavy pressure on McDavid. I haven’t seen any quotes from true insiders, either McDavid’s camp or anyone directly connected to the NHLPA. Maybe its happening, but most of the talk seems like speculation. And no indication he would take that pressure into consideration for his decision anyway.
As someone else noted, every dollar McDavid gets is one less dollar for other players. Not that the NHLPA want everyone’s salary to be the same, but McDavid taking 15% of the cap vs 16% won’t negatively impact 95% of the players in the league. It seems the only long term impact for them is that if McDavid takes a higher cap hit and never wins a cup, that opens the door for both sides to propose changes to the structure (higher share for players – it was 60% in 2012 at the time Crosby signed, special exemptions from the cap for for 1 or 2 elite players per team etc. while the owners might counter with changes to the upper limits for individual players).
It is for the benefit of the players within the PA being referenced regarding max money, not the PA itself.
Another way, Donald Fehr’s dithering since yesteryear has nothing to do with how much the Celebrini’s and Bedard’s of the world can be compensated in the future.
If 97 is the cap, taking less on a shorter term deal leaves room for 7 year deals above his AAV.
There’s a balance to strike as the defacto face of the league
The cap is the max players on the team can earn, which is all the NHLPA should be concerned about. The distribution among the players, all of whom are members, should therefore be of no concern.
If players like Kaprizov are waiting for McDavid so they can use that deal to squeeze for more, they may not be the team players you would want on yours.
Crosby was clearly the champion of the “winning is more important than getting more money than my great great grandchildren can spend” crew. I’m guessing McDavid is a disciple.
Anyway, let the games begin.
There are various accounts that the union indeed cares about pushing the higher compensation tier higher – even if it doesn’t increase the overall comp to the entire union.
I also very much enjoy watching the Condors and, as always, am exited for the season including, the following:
1) Jarventie and Regula (if either/both are down – I think Regula might stick) as LEGIT NHL options over the next few months).
2) Akey and Clattenburg as 20 year old rookie pros. I suspect that Akey starts as 3RD behind Regula and Brown but hopefully doesn’t have too long of an adjustment period and works his way up. I hope both can stay healthy – rookie pro 20 year Condors don’t have a long history of full health.
3) Samanski, Marjala , Carfagna and Hutson – three forwards that may never play an NHL game (another for Hutson) but each of who has “a chance” to develop and make it – bets baby.
4) Leppanen – from various accounts the offensive skills are real and spectacular and NHL ready but he’s a rover out there. Can Chaulk and McCambridge teach some real structure. When was the last time the league had a Rafalski?
5) Matt Copponi – Just something about this kid – I expect an NHL ELC earned mid-season.
6) Petrov and Grubbe – can either of themselves earn a second contract?
As an aside, AHL TV joined Flo Hockey last season and, when you sign up, you have access to a TON of hockey – this now includes certain OHL (in addition to BCHL, OJHL and various NCAA) – for me its great value just for the Condors but others might be interested in some of the other leagues it now carries.
I could see Regula sticking with the big team and Stecher and Janmark ( if one of the new wingers steps up ) traded as a package .. LA ??
I could see Stecher and Janmark waived.
Janmark is over-caped by $600K and has a year of term, I don’t think any team is taking him unless the Oilers add a positive asset – he’d slide right through waivers.
Stecher could very well get claimed at league min – I think the Oilers would worry about that – they would want to keep him for depth for sure.
Wow. I don’t live in Edmonton anymore, but I’d imagine with the lingering McDavid contract talks and his recent quote about everything on the table. Things must be reaching quite the fervor.
For some, that is the case. For me, I respect his right to make a decision and we’ll see what happens. He has provided Oilers fans with a decade of elite brilliance. I am thankful to have been witness to it
Rick Davies, RIP. Goodbye Stranger…
Supertramp was awesome.
I think the McDavid camp is waiting on the Kaprizov extension so they can ensure McDavid is above him and stays the NHLs highest player during this contract. This to me is the holdup and his agent doesn’t want to risk him signing for $16M and then Kaprizov comes in at $16.5 – it would be a bad look for the agent. The NHLPA also likely wants McDavid as the highest paid player.
Term to me is unimportant, McDavid will choose where he plays his career, regardless whether he is under contract or not. Edmonton has to keep showing why this is spot for him to play his career.
Honestly, I hope McDavid comes in at $14M like his buddy Draisaitl did. They’re the top two in the league they should set the standard. That would make a statement.
Lauren McDavid’s cryptic instagram post seems to suggest 97 and 29 will match at $14M
Whaaaa? There’s a cryptic post?
Yuppers. The NHLPA want Conner to take top dollar though.
I assume you mean her post from last week with three hands (presumably one is hers and another Celeste’s – Draisaitl’s newlywed wife) showing off matching (wedding?) rings with the caption “friends don’t copy, they match”?
I definitely see the implication, but we may be reading a little too much into the wives’ social media. It’s a bit “Paul is dead”.
(Ring) Fingers crossed though!
If that were to happen, bless McDavid if he takes one for the team & fans like that. There ought to be a buffet of praline and dick sandwiches for all the naysayers who have slammed 97. The young man has been a gift to Oiler fans, been weird listening to some fans saying he hasn’t done enough.
I think that would be more of a bad look for Bill Guerin…….
— was “hate listening” to the local sports talk in TO on way to work. Segment on Oilers.
— Takeaways (for what it’s worth):
1) McD going to sign for 2 years most likely
2) hasn’t been “given” a good goalie ever
3) asking a lot from rookies and mang
4) Hyman out longer and kidding if you think he’s going to be 100% for a long time
5) all but Bouchard on the wrong side of 28
6) no 1st round draft pick to help
— I can see how with all this CmD might not be loving 8 years. 2 years makes a lot of sense from his perspectives IMO : for winning having outs and potential bigger pay later.
In other words the glass is half empty.
I had a similar experience with the Calgary sports talk this morning. I was reluctantly seeing some of their points around a short contract, wanting a bigger stage (from the NHL’s perspective too) and the idea of winning somewhere that it gets cemented in local lore forever (they mentioned TO here).
I am still on the “he signs for 4 years” but I think the onus is on the team to come out of the gate hot and prove there is a plan for success beyond this year.
I assume this means in terms of growth potential? There are no small stages in Canada. If the NHL wants to Gretzky him and use him to grow the game in the sunbelt then that’s a different thing altogether.
I don’t think there are many places that beat Edmonton in this category. Ending the Canadian drought would earn him a Canadian heritage moment. I suppose doing it on a Canadian team that hasn’t won before would be a little extra spice, but I can’t see him leaving Edmonton for any of those orgs.
I think a short contract makes sense for him and the team and the PA if he takes a clear discount. Frankly, I’d rather have him making 14m and signed until his 31yo season and then re-signing at 20m than until his 37yo making 17m. McDavid will continue to be dominant for his 30s I’m sure, but if I’m the team then I want his AAV as low as possible during his and Draisaitl’s (and Nurse’s) prime years.
4 years is actually an optimal contract in my opinion (again, assuming it comes with a discount). McDavid will be 33 , Draisaitl will be 35, and Bouchard will be 31. Gives us 5 more opportunities at Stanley with our star at a lower cap hit.
— I’d have to move out of Toronto if McD signed here. It would be so awful.
— would actively cheer for age out quickly lose his speed miss chunks of seasons etc.
— caveat is outside markets speculating and hoping as that’s best scenario for them: all would want him in their market but when they spell out all that stuff above it is sobering.
— I do get that the NHL would want him in a bigger market : I have no idea if this desire is actually is something they can “influence”
Nothing wrong with two years. The only bad result is no extension.
Him taking more cap in two years isn’t great news for me, or Bouch in 4, a depth killer
Him taking more cap now isn’t great news either, right?
— I can’t believe I’m even typing this but you have to trade him if he doesn’t sign an extension soon IMO.
— even then your not getting max value as he’s available to all end of season.
Any trade is a loss, but if it appears (or is communicated) that he won’t re-sign prior to tdl, then I agree a trade has to be considered. Since he has full NMC, if he agrees to a trade then the team getting him has the inside lane on signing him. That has got to be worth a lot. I imagine a few teams are already proactively considering what they need to do in order to bring him there ahead of anyone else.
K is not trading McDavid (except perhaps in June next summer in a sign and trade if McDavid refuses to sign in Edmonton).
Have people forgotten what happened last time? The owner CANNOT preempt the decision of this type of player.
#2, I dunno. There’s been decent goaltending during his time here (and that includes Stu for portions of it). When I want to make myself crazy, I wonder what a ‘20-21 Mile Smith or a ‘16-17 Cam Talbot would have looked like behind either of the last two Oilers Cup Finals squads
While they certainly could have used a couple of saves that shouldn’t have been made, or perhaps a few that should have been, goaltending to me isn’t why they couldn’t beat Florida. Lots more to it than that
I find it funny how you finger wag at folks here who opine their point of view, needing to avoid reading the usual suspects like Oiler Nation and legacy media instead of a more diverse/broad ranging media landscape. Only to come on here repeating TO-centric talking points that are an inch deep and a mile wide.
Having said that, I think it’s important to preface my comments a bit here. My reaction to the points of the TO media is directed at them, not you. Don’t shoot the messenger kind of thing.
— 2 years would maximize cost certainty and set up the team and the player to fully utilize the next CBA. It’s a mutual benefit scenario if both parties play it well. Does anyone really think he’s signing 8 years at $14MM?
— clearly a red herring as Talbot, Smith, and Skinner have all had good to great moments, including the playoffs.
— no arguments, even as Connor has typically gotten the better wingers and Leon has been given the dregs (the occasional Rattie aside). Looking past the obvious, there’s a cost to pay digging out from the sins of previous management regimes.
— time for some of the newbies to show they belong. How nice would it be for a Tomasek/Howard/Savoie/Jarventie/Leppanen/Regula, et al (let alone a Holloway/Broberg/JP, etc), to show themselves early. McLeon can’t do it all themselves; even Matthews and Marner needed help to advance past the first round.
— Skinner is 26, which is young for goalies. TOR isn’t exactly a bastion of youth, Knies and Robertson being the only noteworthy players under 28, neither in the same postal code of Bouchard. Odd glass houses moment from the typically tone deaf TO media.
— Unlike TOR, EDM is typically drafting at the end of the round these days, which rarely nets an impact player who’s a plug-n-play solution. So what does that even mean? TDL capital? The playoff cap scuttles that argument before it gets launched.
To your last point, CMD can request a trade at any time. Term is irrelevant, AAV a bit of a limiting factor, but Connor holds the cards. And any team would be elated to have him. The laundry is the only thing to sort if he wants to go anywhere.
Great post and, to the above, its wild to me that so many honestly seem to think that McDavid should sign for full term (for like $14MM or less, the the amount that is less that marketed on a very short term deal) on the premise that signing short term to price in the future is not leading and he should take less.
How much money is the man supposed to give up?
I mean, he already gave up at least $1MM x 8 on his current deal (he probably could have got $14MM at that time) and whatever he signs for now will be for a couple million less per year than he could get.
Some expect him to give up like $5MM per year for parts of the next 8 years (i.e sign $14MM X 8 when, in 4-5 years, market could very well be closer to $20MM).