The Edmonton Oilers are getting older in some important places, and didn’t need Connor McDavid’s reminder of same. Through the Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland era, the team has been trading youth and draft picks for aging players, and signing older free agents past prime. The result is a problematic transition to the new Oilers.
We’re seeing it right now, in real time. Coach Kris Knoblauch is hesitant to trust youth, and that’s been a theme for exactly one forever with this organization. It’s a battle hockey men in Oilers offices have been fighting for a decade, and sometimes (Ken Holland with Philip Broberg) a single manager is arguing both sides of the dilemma.
How is this going to turn out? There’s comedy in that question, because we all know what happens when old people get older. The question for Oilers management is will they adapt, or die?
PUCK IQ SLEDGEHAMMER 2024-25 (BLUE)
The defensemen who played the tough minutes last season were Mattias Ekholm (35 years old), Evan Bouchard (26 in late October), Darnell Nurse (30), Brett Kulak (31) and Jake Walman (30 in February). The only young player in the group is Bouchard, and Stan Bowman correctly signed him to an extension this offseason.
There’s plenty of concern about Ekholm, but Nurse, Kulak and Walman are all 30 years old, or close. Broberg is gone, and I don’t see an ideal replacement for Ekholm, who is likely to be playing a lesser role in the future. I like Atro Leppänen, but there’s every chance Kris Knoblauch won’t trust him enough to give free rein. Edmonton should consider an offer sheet next summer.
PUCK IQ SLEDGEHAMMER 2024-25 (FORWARDS)
This is an area we sometimes gloss over, but the elites in this group are in fact aging. Connor McDavid turns 29 in January, Leon Draisiatl turns 30 in October. Of course, Zach Hyman is 33 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 32.
So, even if David Tomasek has a great season on a skill line, he’ll be 30 by spring. Knoblauch has to do find a way to include youth, and did so last year with Vasily Podkolzin. However, Matt Savoie is right there, ready for the opportunity. Stan Bowman acquired Ike Howard for a reason. The Oilers can ill afford another era where the coach and general manager are not on the same page. Not now.
On the Lowdown today, my guests include Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Kathryn McCaffery from Sports Central to talk about the bike drive. The show is noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube. I will have a special personal announcement at 1:45, hope you can tune in.
Were the Edmonton Oilers’ summer moves supported by analytics?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6637539/2025/09/19/edmonton-oilers-stats-analytics-bouchard-mangiapane/
I was surprised to read your take on the Fred. signing. Bowman has been echoing your last-season praise for this player, and his relative rarity. You seem less enamoured now than you were earlier. Has something changed?
I’m onboard based on what I’ve seen of him, but the length of the deal means he can’t be an analytics darling. I would have signed him but there is risk.
This team pushed in all their chips to win a Cup the past 2 or 3 years. Many of us said that the ROI was poor. I think we were proven right with a couple of minor exceptions. Now the pipeline is a trickle and the team is getting old. Now you rely on the same management team that did this to bring the team up to Championship calibre. Good luck. I predict a long and frustrating season.
Thanks, all!
I just watched the clip, congratulations LT!!
All the best to you and your lady. Truly am happy for you most of all.
Congrats LT, all the best to you both!!
I just heard! All of Edmonton &Maidstone must be out in the streets celebrating!
Congratulations LT. VERY happy for you.
🙏
Good sir LT,
I am congratulating you with the force of a thousand Bouch-bombs!
Unfortunately I missed the show… what are we celebrating and congratulating LT on?
A thousand Bouch-bombs sounds pretty significant…
https://x.com/Sports1440/status/1969132277931122993
The young fellow announced his engagement to be married – on the air.
Congrats LT! So happy to hear your news on 1440 today.
Congrats, LT!
I’m really happy for you, Lowetide. Congratulations and God bless!
Anyone watching Canada women’s national rugby union team vs. new Zealand? Tremendous start for the ladies!
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6644741/2025/09/19/rasmus-dahlin-carolina-matovac-heart-transplant-sabres/
Just saw this. Wow, what an experience. Sounds like she will be ok. Thank god.
Prospectorium!
Lewandowski and Nicholl would have commenced another season of prospecting tonight, but for the former camping with the Oilers and the latter shelved until 2026.
So this will just be a preview post instead.
After the OHL boasted seven NAmateurs last season, only one (Nicholl) remains.
As such, the NCAA has a stronger presence this year with about the same number of NAmatuers as last. And no USHL’ers with Berry jumping to college.
It’ll be the CHL’ers in the spotlight until the NCAA season begins a fortnight hence.
This year’s octet:
Saskatoon (Lewandowski)
Kamloops (Lafreniere)
London (Nicholl)
Michigan (Park, Barnett)
UMass-Lowell (Wakely)
St. Thomas (Berry)
Notre Dame (Fischer)
Really really happy to see this back. One of my favorite posts/updates during the season!
I really, really appreciate all your work on this Tarkus. It’s always so fascinating to see how the youngsters are faring! keep it up! and thanks!!
Over in the KHL:
1) Berezkin has now got a point in 3 straight games and, from highlights, his production under-values his impact – strong power forward creating through the game
2) Yevseyev continue to rack up minutes on his new team – almost 24 minutes last game to lead the team. He’s contributing to the PP and offence as well.
Really appreciate you doing this… I don’t know what I enjoy more, the prospect updates or the jaunts through small town Alberta! Looking forward to it.
This is a great article, smart take and supports a lot of what is said here.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-kelly-mccrimmon-vegas-golden-knights
Yeah I think this is right. The problem is finding a way to fit solid Pisanis into the roster within the cap, especially with the top heavy contracts of the stars
Simple, you cheat just like vegas and florida did to win.
He wrote it today so click the link but point #4 is just wrong.
Team defence is an issue in ‘key moments’.
No, key moments are created by poor defence (and goaltending). The difference is subtle but important.
He added the word ‘key’ so nobody can argue that the team allowed the least high danger chances (per 60!) in the playoffs.
Added to the fact the vaunted Vegas team was beat in 5 with the inclusion of 2 goalies and 2 shutouts, this undermines his entire article.
97 not scoring in the ‘key’ games and Ekholm being a shell of himself but deployed as if he wasn’t sunk the ship.
The series was 2-2 and they didn’t have Hyman or full Nuge and the ghost of Kane and Frederic’s ankle were a double OT play away from 3-1 in game 5 at home. The Panthers literally blew a 3-0 lead at home before the collapse.
The reframing from MSM is frustrating.
Point 4 is a collection of words that don’t mean anything. WTH is “key moments” anyway?
One of the things I’ve appreciated from CoH is their devotion to defining and tracking/accounting “Grade A” and “5-alarm” scoring chances. It’s not math, but at least there’s an effort towards some form of rigor. “Key moments” — ugh.
I appreciate the concern about aging.
But playoff hockey is radically different from regular season hockey. Young players rarely know how to play playoff hockey. And some older veterans consistently surprise.
Exhibit A: 40-year-old Corey Perry was *fourth* in NHL playoff goal-scoring.
Going into the playoffs last year, there was a lot of concern about team speed. And yet a team that limped into the playoffs went on a 12-2 run through LA, Vegas, and Dallas.
Also a 38 year old split the D and scored twice in the same series.
You need both. Players with playoff experience (doesn’t have to = old), and a spoonful of youthful enthusiasm. I know this is old ground but not matching Holloway was a big screw up
The Jeff Jackson era will live in infamy.
One way to really kickstart the youth movement would be aggressive use of offer sheets. Sure, you’d be giving up picks as compensation, but target guys who don’t always command first round picks. You’d bring in developed players who are plug and play.
This team doesn’t have time to draft and develop solid replacements right now. And the deadline deals for said draft picks usually result in guys who are solid at the time, but approaching decline in the not to distant future. If I was a GM, I’d be firing offer sheets around like candy.
Agreed but with St Louis being successful in poaching Broberg and Holloway I believe teams are more aware that they cannot just lollygag at signing their RFAs anymore. The cat is out of the proverbial bag.
As an example, I believe Mason McTavish could be had today at $6.5M, and the assets out would be a 1st and a 3rd. I’d liken this to the trade for Isaac Howard on steroids.
If Sam O’reilly and a 3rd was the cost for McTavish at the deadline, I’d do that all day.
At the very least, it makes Pat Verbeek’s life a bit more difficult.
The point of the offer sheet is that it works.
In a rising cap world, most teams will have the dough to counteract a minimal sheet like Bro and Dyl.
Edmonton was uniquely situated and got caught with their pants down. The summer of RFA’s didn’t happen as predicted because of this. The Mckenna excuse is ridiculous imo. If Carolina for example went and added Mctavish they weren’t getting Mckenna anyway.
It was the cap room available.
I’m not basing this opinion on the Broberg/Holloway situation at all. I’m over the loss of those players last year. I just think offer sheets would be a good way to address your roster. I’m suggesting a shift from trading out picks at the deadline, to earmarking your picks for offer sheet compensation and bringing in guys in their early 20’s over the summer every year.
I’m for that strategy too, my counter was that with a rising cap, the ability to squeeze a team is much more difficult. The decision to match is much easier when the compensation $ are already set and you know the cap is going up 10M+ per year.
The window to get cheap players on offer sheets is closed for the near future. The window for max players is open, but that could involve multiple firsts. Not a bad strategy just not the paltry sums paid for Bro and Dyl to fill out a roster, for example.
Of note, Rishaug on his pod last night absolutely raved about Savoie – said he’s absolutely buzzing out there, sniping everything, going bar down and walked Ekholm with a great move off a rush.
This is a great sign.
Savoie walking Ekholm could be a great sign but it could be a bad sign.
if Ekholm can’t move as he has in the past, the defense is going to be an issue imo.
Getting 100% mobility back after a serious torn abductor issue is not a given at 35 years old. This is in addition to age-related mobility regression being likely.
We’ll see where he is at shortly – hopefully he’s near peak Ekholkm, and he might be, but he also might not be.
How real were the 150 Kulak/Bouchard minutes from the playoffs?
I mean, they were spectacular – 8-1 goals and over 61% expected goals against playoff teams.
Yes. At the time, and especially in the SCF, I wanted more of Kulak/Bouchard.
This made me laugh. But for real, I think it’s important to hold judgment on guys like Ekholm until the real season starts. Vets tend to look pretty meh in the preseason
Yeah, it takes longer for us old guys to get warmed up.
This also came to top of mind.
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I understand not putting the higher end young prospects in to positions they are not ready for but, at the same time, I don’t understand not even considering given them the opportunity, in particular in camp, to see where it goes.
At the end of the day, I have zero issues with Savoie as 3RW on a line with Nuge – I think Savoie could do great there. At the same time, Savoie is high pedigree offensive player, his PRIMARY attributes related to helping the team score goals. The disregard to even give him a chance on Leon’s right wing, even if Hyman was not out, is very disappointing to me – although not surprising, the coach has telegraphed this all summer.
I mean, Kasperi Kapanen?
I know its day 1 but this is off the coach’s verbal the prior day where he straight up said not to Howard and Savoie getting chances in the top six – maybe in time he said, after they show they are NHL players.
Would anyone be surprised to see Janmark or Lazar get a chance in the top 6 before Savoie.
Howard, its tougher for me as I don’t know his level of play like I know Savoie’s but I am confident that playing him on a 4th line is unlikely to go well.
Agreed on Howard, at least in the long run.
But this is training camp, not regular season. Howard has not played a moment in the pros, and comes in with a reputation of….let’s just say, having a strong sense of self.
The first thing to learn is how to carry oneself as an NHL pro.
I’m inclined to give the coaching staff a lot of rope right now. If Howard is getting the Jeff Skinner treatment after 40 NHL games, then let’s talk. (The good thing is that, unlike Skinner, if they don’t want to play him in the Top 6, Howard could be sent to the AHL. That might be the best thing for him anyways.)
This team can and will be competitive this year. Next year feels like a huge question mark in terms of what this team will look like – in large part due to the issues highlighted in this post. One wonders if McDavid looks at who is signed for the 2026/27 season and sees turmoil in this team’s future. Walman is the most likely guy to replace Ekholm, but he will likely have a window of about 2 years before he starts to fade. After that, the only bright light on D for the future is Bouchard. Without any prospects on the horizon, that means bowman will have to retool on the fly with whatever is available. I think that is doable when you’re working on the fringes of the roster, but I’m not sure about filling core roster spots that way. Even if we do get younger talent, the collective growing pains of bringing along that much youth would be significant.
I’m not sure that’s true, at least for the D. Forwards begin to drop off in their early 30s, but I’m not sure that’s true for D, or at least for D whose game is more mental than physical. There are some D-men who really come into their own in their late 20s. Steve Staios comes to mind, but there are plenty of others.
Good pint – unless they are special players, I feel like most D don’t really reach their top end until 26/27 but then can hold that level of play for 5+ years depending on injury
Just looking at the initial training camp depth chart….
I really like our D. Our D was an area of incredible weakness for SO long. In the last few years, we’ve come a long, long way. Before about 2020, someone like Kulak would have been our second or third best D-man. Troy Stecher would have been a second-pairing fixture.
The D corps is hard to fix. Our GMs (yes, including Ken Holland) deserve a lot of credit for that.
The only thing that makes me nervous is seeing Ekholm playing at all. I hope he has rested long enough to truly be 100%. Like Hyman, I don’t want to see him back until that point.
Yup. This season it’s a high point going in.
Ekholm, Walman, Nurse and Kulak is an embarrassment of riches on the left side. RD still looks a little shaky after Bouch, but luckily we can cover by sliding guys over. Would be amazing if guys like Emberson and Regula could take a step forward this year
If Ekholm is healthy, LH side is brilliant. However, Walman is going to play RH side, so injury and fatigue loom large.