Since taking over the head coaching job with the Edmonton Oilers, Jay Woodcroft is 9-6 after a loss. Edmonton needs the win tonight after a pedestrian effort against the Los Angeles Kings on Sunday night. Part of the fun watching Woodcroft and Dave Manson involves seeing tweaks in the lineup emerge. What might we see tonight?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Oilers could not see chaos ahead
- New DNB: How do Oilers solve depth issues up front after first shutout loss of Jay Woodcroft era?
- Lowetide: Early look at Oilers’ options for 2022 NHL Draft
- DNB: Mike Smith a big part of Oilers win in Game 3
- DNB and Lisa Dillman: Inside Oilers-Kings matchup between Jay Woodcroft and Todd McLellan
- Lowetide: Why Oilers line up as summer trade partner with Ducks
- DNB: Oilers’ Derek Ryan’s under-the-radar play instrumental in Game 2 success
- DNB: A long travel day, dim lights at morning skate and who’s on the real PP1?
- DNB: Oilers end seven-game postseason losing streak, a party five long years in the making
- Lowetide: 5 biggest Bakersfield Condors stories from 2021-22 AHL season
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
- Pierre Lebrun: Can Jay Woodcroft’s message help the Oilers move past recent playoff failures?
- DNB: Should Oilers play Jesse Puljujarvi and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on same line?
- DNB: Connor McDavid produces magic, Mike Smith mistake proves costly: 5 Oilers observations
- Lowetide: Oilers regular season report card for 2021-22
- DNB: Mike Smith never stopped fighting. A playoff run would be his ultimate redemption
- Lisa Dillman and Lowetide: Oilers vs. Kings position by position: Who has the edge?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Shayna Goldman: Inside Oilers’ adjustments that saved their season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ exceptional April saves a turbulent regular season
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every prospect in the Oilers system
TONIGHT’S TWEAKS
Mike Smith is likely to start in net, unless there’s some unseen force at play. Mikko Koskinen has yet to play a minute of the NHL playoffs, but tonight isn’t a good time.
The Kane-McDavid-Puljujarvi line is humming, Kane and Puljujarvi lead McDavid in five-on-five points per 60 and one imagines that gap closes if Edmonton plays in a few more games. Top top line owns a 63 per cent shot share and is 4-1 goals. The Draisaitl line is sputtering in expected goals, and has a 38 percent shot share at five-on-five (1-2 goals).
The Nuge is playing well, but his wingers have some gaps in performance. Based on these numbers I would run him with Foegele and Ryan (just six minutes in the postseason so far) and slide Ryan McLeod and Zack Kassian in as needed. I think maybe the 7D-11F train could be pulling up to the station tonight. I’m really impressed with Edmonton’s strength up the middle during this series, the LAK are strong and a veteran group. Each is over 50 percent in faceoffs five-on-five, save for Draisaitl. He is at 38 percent. He is facing a tough opponent often.
Solid goal differential for the top pair, second pairing at level. The Corsi rel numbers are never used anymore, I find them valuable. The top two pairs would be playing toughest opponents, so the big takeaway here is the third pairing should have better rel than currently shown. Difficult to be angry, small sample. Expected goals shows the second pairing is getting results that are just a little better than earned. The defense is plus four in the heart of the game five-on-five, difficult to get upset at that number through four games. I think they dress seven blue.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Tom Gazzola from GQ and TSN1260 are scheduled to appear. Wall to wall Oilers, and lottery memories. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Stauffer and Spector are frauds and those worshipping at their altars morons.
Absolutely nothing to say about Keith, nothing to say about poor veteran performances.
I’ve said it before: the MSM sucks. Moreover, these two in particular are cowards for going after guys who actually make a positive difference out there.
Btw, verdict on Keith is now in. Guy brought in for the playoffs has performed worse than Jones or Bear ever did. He simply cannot defend a speedy rush or break a cycle. Big woof.
Keith cost this team a playoff game and was brutal in game 4 as well.
I said he was done in the summer. Wasn’t wrong, just early.
.
Huge issues with coaching and deployment, as LT said.
JP and KY are the best RWs on the team. Play them!
No Oilers young player, in my recollection, has ever had a playoff game as porous as Duncan Keith’s. The coaching staff incorrectly assigned that pairings’ failures to Bouchard, who is an excellent D man.
Why is this team overthinking things?
When Nurse was out, Kulak was elevated and the results were excellent. On that basis, Keith is clearly your third best D on the left side.
Play your best players, and those who are not, do not play them.
The game 4 and 5 Oilers look more like the mid-season funk Oilers and the last 2 playoff Oilers. What the hell has happened? Maybe the regular season Woodcroft era was a mirage. I doubt it was a mirage, but his job might be on the line in Game 6 if he can’t get his team playing the right way and playing hard, competitive hockey.
The city is desperate to cheer this team, we want to scream in joy , masked or maskless, mo matter, we all wanted to get behind them. Even non hockey fans knew this was a must win game. The team is oblivious. They have to be. No other logical reason. And on a night where 34 leads a comeback against defending champs. I’m not going to watch TV or listen to the radio or check my email till the stink fades
Holy crap, I thought I had a good buzz going. Now that I’ve read some the comments I’m convinced the oilers have forced a required intoxication going forward.
The oban had me saying O-man
We scored only one – 5 on 5 goal tonight.
And that was by Warren Foe….oops. Zack Kassian.
Again I’m seeing great individual efforts but no movement as a team. They either stand still in the d-zone or end up running all over the place. You watch the kings and they move as a 5 man unit. One day the oil will learn to play big boy hockey just don’t know if our superstars will be here for it
If they can avoid pissing away the first two periods they certainly has a chance to win this in seven. But to do that they obviously need to sharpen up the 5v5 play. To my eye they’re losing the neutral zone in both directions, defensively they let LA just fly through in transition, offensively they struggle to get past an LA team dropping back to the blue line. Without too much of an analysis just after the game it feels like they need to go a little more east-west through the neutral zone to force the Kings to move laterally and create some openings.
As the third period showed, if the Oilers can play deep in LAs zone they just don’t have an answer. Problem is to get there. Zone entries and checking needs to be better.
Losing the neutral zone game- big time.
Oilers refuse to dump it in. Still trying to skate into the zone through a thicket of Kings.
Neutral zone turnover ensues and Kings counter with speed.
Rinse. Repeat.
I agree if they use McD and Drai on separate lines next game. Nuge and Ryan should be chipping to corners and using the big wingers ato wear down Kings Dmen and forcing ozone faceoff for the top 6. I assume that’s why they’re playing Kass, Pujo, Archie foegle down there.
This is probably the deepest forward depth the oilers will have over the next few years. If this crew can’t figure out the same playoff structure they’ve played against the last 3 years then may be something is in the water.
Not blaming anyone but I’m starting Koskinen in LA. Gotta do something to change momentum and that’s a start
To make it easier for LA to score the first goal? Smith has been fine. Kempe somehow walked in untouched with both Keith and Kulak back, after those two completely failed to break up the cycle. That’s not on the goaltender.
If you read my post you’d see I wasn’t blaming. But the Oilers need to change something.
The goalie has nothing to do with being out-shot 15-4 after the first 10 minutes of the game. He could have plenty of influence if he let in 4 of those shots.
Bingo!
Yup, one would think this is obvious.
The “something” you suggest will cause more harm than good
They need to play the trap like LA is playing. But the coach said they aren’t a trap team. Thus, game over.
He allowed multiple weak goals this evening.
I’d actually go Skinner – but Mikko also deserves a shot.
I agree. Woodcroft career may be on the line.
If EDM had goaltending series would be over
Bingo.
Oilers likely hexed themselves after winning those two games with such lop-sided scores. Kings were playing pissed off. Now they lead the series. Oiler will not win if they don’t score first. Simple as that. Can’t use trap system to its full effect when losing. Forces game to open up.
Honest question, what are the d-pairings next game? Do you go 11 and 7? The only fully reliable d in this series have been Ceci, Kulak, Barrie. then crickets- Nurse can barely move out there, it is so noticeable how badly he is injured. Keith and Bouch are good in the offensive zone but an utter disaster in the d-zone, together or apart. Our only other option is KRussell. I think you need to add him in and limit Keith’s TOI significantly. Most important is the boys need to start on time. Win the first shift, then the next one, take the crowd out of it. They can do it, but not from behind again..
Oilers defence without a healthy Nurse is worse than LA defence without Doughty.
if Oilers are knocked out in round 1 again, I go hockey-dark until the draft. In my mind, this season will have been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.
I was team Woodcroft forever. Might even be a founding member. What I saw tonight leaves me wanting his resignation. Jesse Puljujarvi — 4th on the team at 57.92% xGF% after 2 periods — didn’t touch the ice at all in the third period or OT. Unless he’s dealing with many — and I do mean many — broken legs, it’s completely inexcusable. Josh Archibald took shifts — at even strength — in the third period. But JP didn’t. Give me a fucking break.
Analytics are great. The one Jesse struggles with is scoring. And he doesn’t.
hahahaha how is he always labeled as the scapegoat? Let’s call a spade a spade and say he is not wanted no matter how you cut it. This team is coached and run by the big three.
Long list of guys who couldn’t score or even create anything close to a scoring chance in the last two games. There’s just no way Jesse was one of the worst three forwards in that one. I get that him stumbling and looking akward on the ice isn’t very elegant but good things kept happening for pretty much all the lines he was on, often due to small picks, three feet passes and the puck knocked loose by Jesse. He was bad last game but tonight he did a lot of good things.
the ice surface is like ricotta cheese….
Amen!!!
I saw it how it played out. Jesse was a step behind, looked slow and didn’t do much to swing momentum. He didn’t generate much of anything, in a game where we needed guys to take their game to the next level. Archie had mustard. He moved the puck forward. Hit everything, against a team who needs to be pressured down low. I love Jesse but I think he needs some healthy boots and tbh a longer stick.
He actually was part of the second period swing of momentum where he was moved up to get the cycle going cause they had none. However, after that was stapled to the bench. Baffling!!
Oh the torture of game 6 is coming and I’m getting Deja Vu.
Kings at home. McDrai hard matched and getting sawed. California goal against. Blown coverage goal against. Empty netter.
Plan for the worst so you can be pleasantly surprised. Hard part is remembering you planned for the worst when you’re in the moment.
oof. I never saw Woody loading up 97 and 29 in the playoffs.. in OT… Hopefully he learns the lessons of HC ghosts of the past. Not that it was the big mistake that cost the game, but good grief, you’re going into OT, it’s not acceptable to not spread it out and not stick with what worked for the 40 games + he has lead the team.
The first real criticism I’ve had for Woody and the Man this year is that d combo to start OT.
I can’t blame him for the poor starts to games and periods. That’s happened under two coaches this season and plenty before.
No kidding. I don’t remember seeing them play together before, either…head scratcher.
Wrote my post before I read yours. Tip my cap to the smart guy fast typer.
It’s because of very limited options..
I guess we’re going 7…….
7D hopefully
It’s the Next game that’s important. Focus on that.
Another night at the improv comes to an end…..please liberate JP from this team and someone for the love of god fix that ice surface….it’s utter garbage!!
If the Keith evangelists don’t say uncle after this game, they never will.
It never was Keith helping Bouchard; it was one of the best EV scoring dmen in the league helping a guy who can’t skate any more.
Also, pretty sure 2 now responsible for more GA than the likes of Jones, Bear, Bouchard.
Good game, though. Maybe they come back.
Aside from the God McDavid, ( and special teams) was it a good game though?
That hurt. We suck so badly at stopping the cycle…McDavid and Drai never had a chance to touch the puck because of it.
We got scored on the rush, a bad route by Keith, but it was the stifling cycle that softened up our d.
No excuses. McD and Drai got us to overtime for a chance and the kings played the first shift perfectly before burying their chance.
Last chance for romance.
It will all depend on our start the next game. Can’t see how we can be more motivated.
They should send Keith to the pressbox. Play KRusty in his place next game.
Absolutely or go 7 D.
Mike Smith of old showed up. I’ve defended Keith a good chunk this year but he’s been slow and bad for two games. I could go on. How do the Oilers come out so flat to start the game and ot? This effort other than 10 minutes in third is baffling to say the least. Quick wasn’t that great but we had do few shots. I suppose I could go on and on but why?
They had no business even going to overtime. If not for Smith, it was a 6-2 game.
Panicky coaching to play only 3 defense in the long OT vs Winnipeg last year and SUPER panicky coaching to play Kulak on his wrong side with a partner he’s never played with to start overtime.
And boy, it was quite some shift for Kulak.
Assume that was a Manson decision….but who knows
Kane blows a tire similar to Jesse’s blown tire earlier in the series….
I saw damn near a bakers dozen fall this game, between the two teams.
Kings crew still talking about the first shift of OT.
Should have ended it there.
that’s what happens when the ice is bush league….
Ouch. . . that hurt.
Another sad, disappointing effort. The most frustrating part is the quality of opponent they keep losing to. The Oil are getting beat by some of the worst teams in the playoffs. Like the Hawks two years ago and the Jets last year, the Kings will be lucky to win one game in the next round.
So what does that say about the Oilers?
Blackhawks
Jets
and now the vaunted LA Kings.( with critical injuries)
not exactly murders row of playoff opponents
The Kings have advanced to the next round?
Nope.
Just reciting our playoff opposition for the last three years.
You’re a much bigger optimist than I.
Connor had a great view of that goal.
Fuck this team
That first shift of OT …..
Just a demoralizing loss. I’m stunned just how easily LA can turn it on and steamroll our boys.
This is a team that Cannot defend
Getting schooled by a team that can
Same as it ever was….but let’s blame the goalie.
Honest question.
What if they had Doughty and Arvidsson?
Back to:
Somedayyyyyyyy never comes.
Thank god we brought Keith in to show this team how to win in the play-offs.
THAT is why you overpay for an asset. Weren’t going to get him for free now were we?
(EDIT TO ADD) He’ll only get better next year!
Well, hopefully this means Drai and McD will play all of game 6 together.
Nothing really left to say.
same as it ever was?
Duncan Keith has been directly responsible for at least 4-5 GA this series. Rough way to lose but this team has always been thin on the backend.
Just a putrid display.
Wow.
Reflects the game
Who saw that coming?
Probably everyone. They did score first.
Might have sat the wrong dman on the Keith Bouch pairing
Just a pathetic effort by Keith there.
I don’t think it is a lack of effort on Keith’s part- there is lots of try but he gets beat wide consistently. He can’t keep up anymore.
Oilers come out flat. McDavid and Draisaitl dragged this team into OT but how do you not show up in OT?
The Coach sent out a non pair to start the period.
Insanity or stupidity. Take your pick.
Incredibly strange decision. Someone was overthinking himself into a tailspin.
Will be interesting to hear the thought process to that decision
Well the forwards also have a ton of responsibility on the cycle. I’m not defending the defence just not absolving the forwards of there responsibility
Yup, both are true and both contribute to the other.
Pains
That was a bit of a flop of an OT.
Duncan Keith with an AWFUL shift. Jesus.
Fuck
At least it was fast
yes, merciful. more sleep
After all that. Embarrassed.
We hoped for the best but it turned out like always.
Keith and Kulak to start OT.
No.
So stupid.
well that was fun
Curious how Woody handles OT here….keep rolling out McDavid and Drai every second shift or balance it out a bit.
Well, Woody grabbed the Dave Tippett handbook.
Stan Weir doesn’t flush the toilet, he scares the shit out of it.