Eric Rodgers has been helping us figure out the AHL prospects for a long time now. I keep promising myself a road trip to Oklahoma City (Route 66) where I’ll buy Eric and Neal and Patricia and Rob a fine meal, maybe some wine and we’ll all have a nice evening. I bet we’d all agree Teemu Hartikainen could have had a career.
It would be a small portion of what a full payment represents for all the hard work, humor and good company these hockey folks from Oklahoma provide Oilers fans. Rodgers, during the Barons and then when the team moved to Bakersfield, has been tracking numbers and providing them to me to pass along to you. Amazing. I try to do this annually because in my opinion this is important information. It’s like a weather forecast, except for people. What have Rodgers numbers told us over the years?
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Where should the Oilers deploy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
- Lowetide: Oilers math shows 41 candidates for 23 (or fewer) jobs. Who could play where?
- Lowetide: Why did Oilers select Nikita Yevseyev at the 2022 NHL Draft?
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
- Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
BARONS 2014-15 BLUE
Note for all seasons listed here. The GF-GA totals are even strength, the Pts-Game totals are total offense. Sorted by goals above even at even strength.
Rodgers 2014-15 numbers were screaming that Oscar Klefbom was the class of the group. He did all that damage in nine games! Brandon Davidson also had a story to tell. This group of defensemen included five men who would go on to NHL careers, aided at least a little by Craig MacTavish and his procurement of Jordan Oesterle.
Rodgers top two were the best in the group, although injuries would bite both men. Brad Hunt and Jordan Oesterle delivered strong offensive numbers and were aon an NHL trajectory. Todd Nelson was the coach, Gerry Fleming and Tony Borgford the assistants. C.J. Ludwig was the only prominent AHL contract. There are 1,330 NHL games and counting on this roster.
CONDORS 2015-16 BLUE
This is Gerry Fleming as head coach, Borgford and J-F Houle assistants. Rodgers numbers are screaming Brad Hunt’s name (he came from a long way back but the progress in the AHL was legit) while decidedly cool on Griffin Reinhart’s overall game. Darnell Nurse didn’t get a chance to show what he could be in the AHL, he was there for such a short time (nine games). Hunt’s offense was exceptional, but he was a chaos defender. I believe it was around this time the organization started playing Joey Laleggia at forward sometimes.
CONDORS 2016-17 BLUE
Same coaching staff. The numbers are good, but the 2016-17 Bakersfield team wasn’t a playoff club and didn’t send a large number of players to the NHL. Griffin Reinhart played well enough to be chosen by Vegas in the expansion draft, although in truth it likely had something to do with his strong WHL performances.
Dillon Simpson was a good AHL player, in fact he still is, but his boots weren’t NHL quality. David Musil same thing. Notice the improvement from Jordan Oesterle. He still has the offense, but the even-strength goal differential is now over 50 percent. He would sign with Chicago and play the full 2017-18 season in the NHL. He’s still in the league, or was last year.
CONDORS 2017-18 BLUE
Same coaching staff. This is a transition defense, Keegan Lowe, Ryan Stanton and Dillon Simpson playing mentor roles for Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and Ryan Mantha. Injuries that derail or end careers get forgotten quickly, but Mantha was the best AHL rookie in the new group. Bear displayed some nice offense, stands out in the group. Ziyat Paigin played seven games and then flew back to Russia, my goodness that happens a lot.
CONDORS 2018-19 BLUE
Jay Woodcroft arrives with Dave Manson to coach, Houle the holdover from the previous staff. Rodgers numbers were revealing in this season. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones were productive offensively and both delivered solid goal differentials. What’s more, William Lagesson, long a wayward son who played in unmeasurable leagues, arrived and played a solid defensive game. An encourgaging year by Rodgers’ numbers and by eye. Logan Day had a nice year, hell they all did in 2018-19. Woodcroft-Manson can coach. Ryan Stanton and Keegan Lowe remained as mentors, they aren’t listed as I decided to streamline the list to focus on pure prospects.
CONDORS 2019-20 BLUE
Same coaching staff. The team was losing goalies to groin injuries and defensemen were being recalled six at a time, so these numbers aren’t completely a reflection of reality.
Evan Bouchard was 18-29 (minus 11) in his first 27 games under Woodcroft-Manson, and in the final 27 games delivered 23-22 (plus one). Increased offense too. Dmitri Samorukov makes his first appearance, and struggles. Jones and Lagesson linger a little longer than Bear, but this is Jones final trip to the AHL.
CONDORS 2020-21 BLUE
Same staff, added goalie coach Sylvain Rodrigue and this is the season Stuart Skinner turned it around. This is a short season and there isn’t much in the numbers. All of the prospects (Phil Kemp, Vincent Desharnais, Markus Niemelainen and Mike Kesselring) are bunched together. I think we would have seen separation if the samples were bigger. We can’t make any sweeping statements here.
CONDORS 2021-22 DEFENSE
The coaching staff was Woodcroft, Manson, Rodrigue and Colin Chaulk to start the year, then Chaulk took over as head coach with Rodrigue and AHL veteran coach John Anderson sliding in. I posted the splits between Woodcroft and Chaulk at the top and recommend you linger there a time. The Samorukov splits are stunning, he really responded to an increase in time and difficulty (Oilers recalled Philip Broberg and Markus Niemelainen on the same day Woodcroft and Manson flew to Metropolis).
Using the same stats as I have each year, we see Philip Broberg posting an outrageous season. His points-per-60 (1.95) are exceeded only by chaos blue Brad Hunt in 2016-17 (and Klefbom in fewer than 10 games). Vincent Desharnais’ goal differential is the best since 2014-15 and likely before then. What a season! I’m also strong on Samorukov, for me we saw the KHL Samo in the later stages of the season.
I think Mike Kesselring turned a corner defensively, but you’d want to see it again and maybe even more clearance from a player like Phil Kemp. Those two men are fighting for an NHL chance that may never come, but it’s fascinating to watch. That brings me to Markus Niemelainen. I think, based on these numbers, it’s reasonable to send him back for another year. He doesn’t need waivers and Samorukov has a better resume. Honestly, based on this, I’m satisfied Broberg and Samorukov are the correct choices for the Oilers.
One final item: Eric Rodgers. His twitter page links to “Tend the Farm” so if you can follow or drop a line of thanks I’d appreciate it. He is one of the great contributors to this experiment and we are blessed to have him.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy Friday, 10-2 TSN1260. Corey Pronman from The Athletic will join us at 10:40 to talk World Juniors and some of the impact prospects on display at Rogers. Steve Lansky will pop in to talk about the Blue Bombers first loss, Serena and the Jays. Julia Kruez from mlb.com will discuss the Jays and AL East, and Nick Cothrel from ChargersReport.com has the goods on the Chargers season to come. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
NEW for The Athletic: How many goals for Kailer Yamamoto in 2022-23?
https://theathletic.com/3496345/2022/08/12/lowetide-kailer-yamamoto-oilers-goals/
The answer is right there in the question.
22
Kailer will score 22 goals, (or 23)
Next season he will score 23 (or 24)
LT. I hope you know this is how most here would write about you if we all had blogs:
“Eric Rodgers has been helping us figure out the AHL prospects for a long time now. I keep promising myself a road trip to Oklahoma City (Route 66) where I’ll buy Eric and Neal and Patricia and Rob a fine meal, maybe some wine and we’ll all have a nice evening.”
20/52 comments in this thread stem from a single poster. Incredible.
He’s still batting a shade under George Brett’s best year of a 390 average in 1980.
2
So?
No one is telling you that you have to read what he posts if it’s not your cup of tea.
Las Vegas Raiders poised to surprise a lot of people/teams this year.
Lead by Josh McDaniels, watch for improvement on the offensive line.
Less penalties, more off tackle plays, more tosses, more sweeps, more traps, more screen plays, and then BAM!….crossing plays to Renfrow and Waller and the deep routes to Davante Adams.
Might not get buy Chiefs or Chargers in the final analysis but might be one of the top 5 offenses in the league.
#CoachesCoachesCoaches
26 days to the start of the season
Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, September 8 (8:20 PM ET, NBC).
The qualifier here is that the Raiders have the 5th toughest “quarterback schedule” this year.
Fun Fact:
The first thing Josh McDaniels says upon meeting Mark Davis was “who cuts your hair?!?”…
No but seriously the first thing McDaniels says to Davis….”It was a fumble” 🙂
You think he will be the first successful Bilicheck disciple?
Mike Stelter
@m_dan25
“It’s a sad reality planning a child’s funeral. We need help to make everything perfect for Benny. Does anyone in #yeg have a recommendation on someone we could hire to professionally paint some woodwork blue and orange?”
Can anyone here help out?
I must say “Blue Blue Windows, Behind the Stars” is as fitting a title as we’ve seen for a long long time. ( perhaps ever? top 5 all-time for sure) Well done Sir.
Connor Bedard. The heir apparent to Patrick Kane in Chi Town.
He has about a 25% chance of landing in Chicago.
Arizona and Buffalo probably also have equal probabilities.
I’m hoping Bedard becomes a Sabre and they soon eclipse the Maple Leafs as the dominant franchise of Southern Ontario.
25-Year Evolution of Cumulative Hockey FortunesUS$ – See HockeyZonePlus.com for values in today’s dollars. (as of 2019-20)
Jaromir Jagr
$ 139.2M
Nicklas Lidstrom
$ 100.3M
Chris Pronger
$ 108.8M
Joe Thornton
$ 108.8M
Sidney Crosby
$ 119.7M
Shea Weber
$ 108.4M
Alex Ovechkin
$ 113.2M
Gary Bettman
$ 110.3M
Ilya Kovalchuk
$ 101.4M
Evgeni Malkin
$ 99.1M
25-Year Evolution of Cumulative Hockey FortunesUS$ – See HockeyZonePlus.com for values in today’s dollars. (as of 2019-20)
Jaromir Jagr
$ 139.2M
Nicklas Lidstrom
$ 100.3M
Chris Pronger
$ 108.8M
Joe Thornton
$ 108.8M
Sidney Crosby
$ 119.7M
Shea Weber
$ 108.4M
Alex Ovechkin
$ 113.2M
Gary Bettman
$ 110.3M
Ilya Kovalchuk
$ 101.4M
Evgeni Malkin
$ 99.1M
pretty cool dynamic visual of hockey players leap frogging one another on career earns over the past couple of decades.
https://www.hockeyzoneplus.com/salaries/33203-griffin-reinhart
I have 6 Jaromir Jagr rookie cards stashed away somewhere in my basement. 🙂
Not a card collector per se; Just liked Jaromir.
We all have our favorite style of player. Some like the speedsters; Some like the snipers.
I always had a special affinity for the Jaromir Jagr, Peter Forsberg, Leon Draisaitl style of player.
It’s truly sad and amazing Jagr is broke
??? Last article I read had his net worth north of 50 million US. Where are you getting your info, Fox News?
I hope so
Last things I read were around his gambling issues
Maybe I misremembered
Also, thanks for the Fox News comment
While many oiler fans love niemos open ice hitting and cruelty (especially to dustin brown) i think many of us overlook samorukov based on the 2 odd minutes he played.
Samorukov skates better than niemo, has far better puck skills, and is still agressive with defending the blue line.
He is arguably a yr or 2 ahead of niemo. I would like to see him have a monster camp and demonstrate second half/KHL samorukov.
It makes far more sense to me to have him with the oilers training, practicing, learning from the pros and playing every other game or in 11-7 situations than it does to have him in bakersfield.
it also saves the oilers some cap by sending koekkoek down (who i will add has not played professional hockey in over 7 months)
Agree on Samorukov.
Easy to forget how exceptional his KHL season was. At 21 he had the 5th best +/-, 2nd among D, in the 2nd best league in the world.
His injuries and tough start to last season dampened expectations, but he finished strong and his overall AHL year was quality.
Not close to guaranteed, but Samorukov still has a chance to be a quality NHL Dman.
We need a threat of a 6-7 D-man that can hold his own and keep oppositions honest. It’s a long season and having 2-3 D man (on the cheap) that are capable of this is encouraging.
Agree. Like Nemo so far but this is Sammy’s moment. or not.
I’ve been saying exactly this about Samourukov all off-season.
He is two tiers above Niemo (with respect to the big Fin).
Samorukov has top 4 upside with his skill-set.
If he can get to the 2nd week of October healthy, I’d be surprised if Sammy wasn’t on the roster
If he was two tiers about Niemelainen, the Oilers would have recalled Samoroukov on February 10 instead. We can say that Samorukov has waiver eligibility in his favour and that is massive as it pertains to who makes the roster.
We can also say that Samorukov, as he did in the KHL, shone like a diamond when placed in a prominent role with the Condors. You want to see that play out in the NHL before letting him go.
I don’t think projecting Samorukov as two tiers above Niemelainen is fair to either player. They’re two men who are close, and the last lap to an NHL job is the hardest one of all.
For sure the waivers factor could indeed be important and, while I value your opinion (and I know you watch many Condors games), I believe there is a bigger gap than you do.
I believe that Samorukov is “better than” Niemelainen in most aspects of the game – most except “open ice hitting. I believe he’s a better skater, a better defender, has a better shot, is better with the puck, etc., etc.
Niemelainen has “shown more” at the NHL level. Part of that is the initial opportunity given Samorukov’s injury and late start to the season. He does have that though but, in the end, it was, a fairly meh showing overall and he started to get exposed with more consistency over time.
Of course, Sammy’s showing was far “less than meh” but we can only put so much stock in that. I also know what Sammy is likely to learn from that game as I’ve posed a few time in detail how I’ve seen him play when first starting at each new level and how he’s been exposed in the exact areas that he was – stepping up at the blue – he learns from those mistakes and develops in to a top player in that area.
In any event, no big deal. They will both likely see NHL games this season. I think there is more separation based on skill-set (and would note that Samorukov was, at least in my opinon, the Condors’ top d-man until his most recent injury). A difference in opinion from two people that have watched these players more than most.
Yes. Agreed. And of course odds are one of two will make it, so we should have an answer by the middle of the decade. I think Samorukov has the edge for sure this coming season. The good thing for both men is there is very little coming up behind them in the system.
Broberg is really looking good by number. By all reports he’ll have every chance to transition to full time NHLer this coming season.
And Desharnais had a truly monster season. I know he’s 26, but he really has become a high end defenseman at the AHL level.
Kesselring looks like he’s making strong strides as well.
Those lists from previous years have lots of guys coming from a long way back to make the show. Broberg’s been at the front of the line the whole time, but Desharnais and Kesselring look like two distant bells who’ve got a chance to make it.
I didn’t realize he outscored Bouchard at the same age. That’s very encouraging. Broberg is poised to be the new Klefbom.
Desharnais is on the Hakanpaa timetable, another huge defenseman (6’6, 220) who didn’t get his first cup of coffee until just weeks prior to his 28th birthday.
Desharnais’ 25 year old AHL season was miles better than Hakanpaa’s 27 year old AHL season too. There’s clearly still opportunity for Desjarnais to carve out an NHL career for himself.
Helps too that Vinny has WoodMan running the bench now in the show
Dehaharnais makes Niemo look like Bouchard with the puck but that size and wingspan is something.
Both coach and GM seem to make a point of throwing him in every conversation.
He is 4th on the right shot depth chart right now.
I’ve been talking about Kesselring for a while now – he just has a really broad a nice skill-set – just so raw on draft day – starting to ripen.
Is that true?
I’ve barely seen Desharnais play, but he did put up even strength points in Bakersfield. And comparing his scoring to Niemalainen shows a pretty big gap in favour of Desharnais.
Here are the boxcars, by discipline, for the defensemen LT listed (this is from pick224.com, that Swedishposter mentioned a little while back). Bouchard’s numbers from 2 seasons ago are included for comparison. It’s ranked by even strength points/game.
Broberg — Age20 31GP 12EVP 10PPP 1SHP 0.39EVP/game
Desharnais Age25 66GP 26EVP 0PPP 1SHP 0.39EVP/game
Samorukov Age22 51GP 17EVP 0PPP 1SHP 0.33EVP/game
Kesselring- Age21 55GP 13EVP 0PPP 0SHP 0.24EVP/game
Niemalainen Age23 34GP 7EVP 0PPP 1SHP 0.21EVP/game
Kemp ——– Age22 55GP 8EVP 0PPP 1SHP 0.15EVP/game
Berglund —- Age24 53GP 6EVP 0PPP 0SHP 0.11EVP/game
Bouchard- Age20 54GP 19EVP 15PPP 2SHP 0.35EVP/game
That even strength scoring is the main reason I think Desharnais actually has an outside chance of making the show. It sure seems like he’s able to do useful things with the puck.
I’ve seen the vast majority of Deharnais’ games and, yes, that is my opinion based on watching.
Remember, William Lagesson had better 5 on 5 numbers that Jones and Bear one season.
Bear —— Age21 52GP 20EVP 0.38EVP/game
Lagesson Age22 67GP 24EVP 0.36EVP/game
Jones —- Age21 50GP 16EVP 0.32EVP/game
Hmmm. Not quite, though this look does overestimate Lagesson it seems. It could well be doing the same for Desharnais (which would be expected given his age).
No one in this conversation is below 0.30EVP/game though, aside from Niemelainen (who’s well below at 0.21, and also the 2nd oldest of the possible NHLers group).
The Desharnais-Neimelainen gap was sort of my point.
Nice comp.
Another in terms of timeline (but not hugeness) is Nick Jensen. He played 3 years of college plus 3.5 years in the AHL (and a little in the ECHL) before making his NHL debut at age 26. 5.5 seasons later and he’s up over 400 NHL games.
That’s a lot of Blue Blue windows. Is trading some of this talent in the cards? Should trading some of this talent be part of the team building exercise?
Was helpful that Seattle chose Griffin Reinhart.
There are quite a few Oilers blue prospects who are out there playing for other teams with very little return to the Oilers.
vegas
yes. sin city. thank you
I also believe Kesselring is coming as we saw marked and substantial improvement in the 2nd half. To my eye the confidence was there via-via moving the pick – became very good in transition and I love his size/lankiness and boots with some real skill – if he puts it all together, there is up the lineup potential. We aren’t close to there yet thought.
LT, is the P/60 5 on 5 or all situations.
I know Broberg saw some even strength production late but I believe a good, chunk, especially early, was PP.
Also, is that Klefbom season his 2nd in North America where he spent most of it in the NHL? It would be interesting to compare his first NA season vs Broberg from last season.
As indicated in the article: “Note for all seasons listed here. The GF-GA totals are even strength, the Pts-Game totals are total offense. Sorted by goals above even at even strength.”
“Ziyat Paigin played seven games and then flew back to Russia, my goodness that happens a lot.”
Should be a significant part of the risk assessment on draft day…imo
Peace Out. ….reaches for the frying pan….
Oh Yeah……Forgot to mention in my Seinfeld Jerry’s Uncle yell…..
“LANSKY’S HERE!!” < That’s Radio Gold Jerry!
“Eric and Neal and Patricia and Rob”
We know who Eric is ( Thank You Eric! )
Do I / should I know who Neal and Patricia and Rob are? Are they in the business or are they friends of yours?
Neal is Neal Livingston. He had a Barons blog back in the day. He’s now in Texas. Like me, Neal is a Baptist pastor.
Thank You JM.
I was actually on Facebook a moment ago and noticed it’s Neal’s birthday today. I informed him that he got a shoutout from Lowetide on his birthday! Providence, not coincidence. 🙂
Neal was the OG with Tend The Farm back in the day lol.
Patricia is Patricia Teter of Artful Puck, and she would contribute on TTF as well.
And Rob is Rob Ferguson, our amazing photographer from the time of the Barons.
Thank You Eric.
Cheers Eric (and Neal, Patricia and Rob).
And, if you’d care to give an opinion, which of the current crew do you think are likely to have NHL careers?
Great post LT, and thank you Mr. Rodgers!
I did puke in my mouth a little reminiscing over Griffin Reinhart’s career. Seems he’s playing in a well traveled band. At least he’s learning different languages… Prost! Sláinte!
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/41183/griffin-reinhart
Poor Griffin. Not his fault someone traded riches untold for him. He does appear to be having an interesting hockey journey though, hope he’s enjoying it.
And agreed, many thanks Mr. Eric Rogers.
Not exactly poor. NHL earnings approached $2m. (at age 25)
Working on the Big Fish Small Pond strategy, Griffith is now playing in the Elite Ice Hockey League. 🙂
Yes, very true.
Though I can’t imagine it’s very easy
being most famous for being a failed high draft pick that was later traded for a two far better NHL players.
Pre second breakfast Randle is a prospect Neanderthal …….something, something, something, PHILP BROBERG!!!!, something, something……
I’ll read it again after “bacon round two”….
But it is seriously interesting how much AGE, TOI, EV strength pts/60, and GF/GA draw a picture….
Broberg is as close to a lock as one can get..imo…
I can’t see and will be fascinated to see, how the Coaching staff deploys Samorukov. 8 minutes every other game? 10 minutes against the bottom 8 teams in the league?
I can hear Mick and Merry Clayton singing “Gimme Shelter”
I have driven Route 66 beginning to end, a couple of highlights:
Winslow AZ, gotta stop and stand on the corner. What a great little western town.
New Mexico Bad Lands, some of the most beautiful scenery I have ever witnessed. A vivid memory of driving past some cliffs with the most amazing colors and as I stare in awe a ’72 Ford pick up passes me and the bed is full of people just catching a ride!
Kitschy, there are so many motels and diners right out of the 40’s and 50’s along the way, like a time capsule.
Country music stations, lots of country music stations!
Unlike the big interstates, Route 66 feels like you connect to the people and places as you drive along it!
Nice description.
“’72 Ford pick up passes me and the bed is full of people just catching a ride!” harkens back to a by gone era…. the time capsule analogy is a good one.
Would you say Route 66 is worth a trip in and of itself? Or only as a nice / entertaining interlude in between destinations?
Nashville to New Awlens ?
Worth a trip itself. I did Flagstaff to St. Louis.
Well, I’m a standing on a corner,
In Winslow Arizona,
Such a fine sight to see,
It’s a girl; my lord
In a flat-bed Ford,
Slowin’ down to take a look at me
The Winslow AZ thing happened by accident. Stopped for gas, my daughter went into the station to grab some drinks. I was sitting there pumping gas wondering where exactly we were so I looked at the map. Damn, Winslow AZ. My daughter came out and I told her we needed to go downtown!
Not to mention hearing the rumblings of a Union Pacific hauling freight through the desert.
Yes, although there were a lot of large FedEx trucks on the route!
I’ll take standing next to the tracks with Ry Cooder picking out a dusty tune in my head, over next to the highway watching fed ex trucks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ymVaq3Fqk
ry with Route 66 video.
Very nice!
Teeny Hartikainen was a poster child for how bad the Oilers were at development. Great toolset.
Teemu Hartikainen could have been Tomas Holmstrom.
One of MacT’s and the Dementor’s bigger mistakes.