Where will Connor Brown play this coming season? I think most believe he’ll run with Connor McDavid, but Zach Hyman was so strong on the No. 1 line we could see Brown with Leon Draisaitl. The truth is, as we see above in the photo of Brown’s most common five-on-five lines in 2021-22, chances are he’ll play with all of the high-end skill forwards in Edmonton’s employ during 2023-24.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
14 MOST DEPLOYED LINES BY EDMONTON IN 2022-24 (FIVE-ON-FIVE)
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman: 300 mins; 60 pct shots; 67 pct goals; 63 pct X-goals
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman: 209 mins; 55 pct shots; 62 pct goals; 62 pct X-goals
- Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 166 mins; 52 pct shots; 52 pct goals; 45 pct X-goals
- Janmark-Nuge-Kostin: 141 mins; 45 pct shots; 60 pct goals; 44 pct X-goals
- Kostin-Shore-Ryan: 125 mins; 47 pct shots; 67 pct goals; 45 pct X-goals
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman: 110 mins; 48 pct shots; 50 pct goals; 47 pct X-goals
- Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto: 93 mins; 41 pct shots; 33 pct goals; 47 pct X-goals
- Foegele-McLeod-Puljujarvi: 91 mins; 50 pct shots; 25 pct goals; 60 pct X-goals
- Janmark-Nuge-Yamamoto: 84 mins; 42 pct shots; 57 pct goals; 45 pct X-goals
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto: 80 mins; 51 pct shots; 71 pct goals; 54 pct X-goals
- Hyman-McDavid-Pulujuarvi: 71 mins; 54 pct shots; 57 pct goals; 59 pct X-goals
- Foegele-Bjugstad-Janmark: 67 mins; 54 pct shots; 50 pct goals; 45 pct X-goals
- Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl: 61 mins; 48 pct shots; 25 pct goals; 52 pct X-goals
- Kane-McDavid-Hyman: 60 mins; 40 pct shots; 50 pct goals; 38 pct X-goals
I’ve been staring at these numbers for some time, and there are things to ponder. First, Evander Kane’s injuries are all over these numbers, and that skews the view. Kane-McDavid-Hyman got caved so badly the trio spent just 60 minutes together in 2022-23. In the previous season, Kane-McDavid enjoyed a 59 percent goal share at five-on-five in 408 minutes. I’d run those two men, with Zach Hyman, in 2023-24.
That means Nuge and Connor Brown with Draisaitl. I think those two wingers have a chance to recreate what the Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line accomplished from 2019-20 through 2021-22: 664 minutes; 75 pct goals. That’s how I’d run them. You?
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT LINEUP 2023-24
pick224 is pretty sweet hey?
Does anyone know of a site that has the Off-ice GF-GA numbers for the NHL?
Natural Stat Trick has all the numbers, I do it manually. This article has Connor McDavid’s totals on-off ice for his career by season:
https://theathletic.com/4604316/2023/06/14/oilers-connor-mcdavid-stats-2023-24/
When I look at that potential starting lineup, there is alot I agree with but I would flip the top 2 left wingers.
Hyman and Kane are two of the weaker defensive, or 2-way, forwards on the team and I don’t think they should play together generally.
Kane isn’t like Hyman where he doesn’t provide even 50% of the effort in the defensive zone (and cheats more than any other forward) but he does have a penchant for neutral zone (and high defensive zone) turnovers.
Hyman and Kane are two of the weaker defensive, or 2-way, forwards on the team and I don’t think they should play together generally.
Have any numbers to back up this statement? Honestly asking… I’d tend to agree, but I don’t completely trust my recollection either way.
They were quite poor together this regular season in about 100 minutes together. They were much better together in the playoffs though.
If you take both regular seasons and both playoffs they’ve still only played about 215 minutes on the same line, and their on ice come out pretty close to 50%.
Regular season:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2023-04-14&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8475786&p2=8475169&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
Playoffs:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20222023&stype=3&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-05-02&td=2023-06-13&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=0&p2=8475786&p3=8475169&p4=0&p5=0
Mostly just the eye test to tell you the truth (although, on a quick check, Hyman was negative goal share in 2021/22 and, over the course of his time in Edmonton, he is 44-66 goals without McDavid – 3.79 GA/60.
Hyman is awful in the defensive zone, he doesn’t give effort to retrieve, he doesn’t get in lanes and he bolts toward the offensive zone consistently before full possession in obtained.
Kane isn’t as poor in the defensive zone but he is quite consistent with the neutral zone turnovers.
At least to my eye.
Yes, I agree with this.
I keep reading and hearing about how “he was signed to play with McDavid” and I don’t agree with that premise at all.
He was signed because the Oilers had a need for a top 6/middle 6 RW and he is one and he should be an upgrade over Yamamoto and improve the team in that spot.
Why does he have to play with McDavid as some think? Firstly, at least for me, “chemistry” nearly a decade ago in the Ontario Hockey League means absolutely zero vis-a-vis the NHL, zero. Remember when Drai and Kahun played together nationally? Remember when POS and Mike Comrie lit up exhibition season? None of it matters come real NHL games.
As LT points out, Hyman and McDavid have had fantastic results together – that duo should be a pair, end stop.
That leaves Brown for the other RW spot in the top six (on the presumption that someone like Foegele doesn’t “win the job”, given recent success with Drai and the fact that Brown could also be an elite 3RW).
Not to mention, I think we know that Drai needs more
“2-way help” than McDavid and that is certainly more Brown than Hyman, right?
I’m sure Brown will get many shifts with Connor through the year but, to me, he wasn’t “signed to play with McDavid” – I remember when Lucic was “signed to play with McDavid”.
Test
Not sure what happened but we seem to be back minus all the words of wisdom posted earlier today. 😎
With that Dunn contract, HH is still running at a 0% accuracy on foretelling anything to do with hockey.
Joe Colborne and Brogan Rafferty say hello.
The Spillies of Lowetide (same guy actually).
He tries though, bless his heart.
Remember when Sutter was hired to coach the Flames and HH would not stop posting about how in trouble the Oilers were because of it? And then Sutter arguably singlehandedly kicked off a potential Decade of Darkness for the Flames?
He forgets where he’s trolling. Sportsnet is where he pretends to be a Flames fan.
LT, I won’t ask you to compromise your RE series/post, but I’ll be curious to see what you’ve got for Connor Brown.
I’ll peg my RE guess at around 22-32-54 in 75 games, more if he were to play himself into considerable PP1 time (though that’s unlikely).
I would say you’re on the right track and injury/special teams are going to impact in a big way. I’m generally positive on Brown’s season to come. Obviously we need to see him in training camp because missing games will impact totals.
Yes, hopefully the injury hasn’t impacted him at all long term, but he’s likely to take a little time to regain form regardless.
He’s pretty well removed from the injury though, so hopefully it won’t take too long to get up and running, as the men in charge like to say.
He’s all rested up for one last bigger payday.
He’s spoken at length about how he took the “time off” to focus on other areas of improvement, in particular, his nutrition -he says he really reigned it in.
Also talked about the rest of his body getting all that time off and feeling healed and fresh.
Career highs?
Hmmm… *checks the world wide web*… Seems to have better career highs than Ross Colton.
Brown’s best seasons were cut short by Covid, so the totals look pedestrian.
He had an almost identical points/game each of his 3 years in Ottawa, but his best season was 56GP 21-14-35 (2020-21), which is 31-20-51 per 82 games. The other two Ottawa seasons featured fewer goals but were equivalent to 50 points per 82 games.
Marginally but certainly apples and oranges.
In 2021/22 Brown’s most recent almost complete season, he was clearly playing top line minutes leading Senators forwards in TOI/G at 20:03.
In that same season, Colton was clearly playing 4C with 12:48.
PPG Brown .61…Colton .49 so very likely Colton would have easily surpassed Brown given the added ice time and better line mates.
Sounds as clear as the cryptic messages from one resident bear who effusively stated that Kris Russell and Mark Fistric were criminally underrated, based on their /60 metrics. If only they’d been given more ice time, they would have set the world afire!
Nah..,Colton is definitely 3rd line quality and I’ve never claimed otherwise.
Not sure why JP thinks Brown should be judged by those parameters,
Much of that TOI difference was Brown playing almost 3 minutes per game on the PK and Colton playing none.
It will certainly be interesting to track their progress next season though. Colorado only has 4-5 top 6 forwards, so Colton likely ends up in the same 2nd line winger role Brown will. And if he ends up on the 3rd line like you’ve claimed he won’t have any better linemates than he did in TBay.
Colorado acquired Colton specifically to play 3C and I’m sure Brown will get more ice time and better linemates but the obvious comparable is not Brown but Ryan McLeod whose career high is 23 points while Colton’s is 39.
I’m just assuming Colton sees top 6 time since Colorado doesn’t have a full complement of top 6 forwards. Colton appears to be the ‘best of the rest’.
So if not Colton, that would mean Drouin is the Brown comparable on the Colorado roster?
And then Colton and McLeod as the respective 3Cs. They had identical points/game (0.40), McLeod took more than 3x the number of faceoffs, and McLeod is going to cost about half the price.
Sure, be interesting to watch.
Lehkkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Drouin-Johansen-Nichushkin
There is some worry about Drouin but Colorado has a great record on turning chicken shit into chicken salad.
And yes, Colton is more expensive but he’s also better.
If you’re looking for Brown comparables, they are obviously Rantanen and Nichushkin.
Good luck with that.
Care to expound on that with anything more than ‘more points because he played more games’?
Sure.
2021/22
McLeod 71GP 9G 12A 21P
Colton 79GP 22G 17A 39P
Unless you believe McLeod would have scored 13 goals and 18 points in those 8 games, the evidence is overwhelming.
Of course McLeod is younger and may have more to give at some point but his upside likely maxes out at what Colton has already done and with both teams clearly in win now mode, Colton is much more likely to contribute to winning.
McLeod can’t score they should be turning him into a shutdown forward with him and 2 other cheap but defensively dedicated forwards who should be given more ice time defending a lead like the first game against L.A. No way the Kings should of won that pivotal first game. Woody form a shutdown line it’ll save your job.
Sure, keep repeating it, it might even become true.
So you’ve compared Colton’s best season at age 25 to McLeod’s rookie season at age 22.
And you’ve ignored that McLeod scored at better 5v5 rates this past season, was a better outscorer, played more, killed penalties and actually played center. Things that contribute to winning.
Nicely expounded.
Yes.
Some day McLeod may grow up to be Ross Colton,
That day is likely to come when the Oilers are starting a rebuild.
Yes, that sounds about right.
Some day McLeod may indeed 1) become a worse scorer than he is today, 2) no longer kill penalties, 3) stop outscoring, 4) stop playing center, 5) make twice as much as he will in 2023.
It might even take a decade for those things happen, but one day maybe, Ross Colton.
He isn’t a center, so there’s that little item.
Then there’s this little item.
https://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts/avalanche
And this one.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=177637
Taking 189 faceoffs in 82 games doesn’t make you a center, it makes you a winger who takes two faceoffs a game.
Check out Tampa’s centre depth and then refer to the quote from Chris McFarland.
Of course he, Sakic and Dawson Spriggings are widely known for their inability to assess talent.
Or not.
Just looking and his offense at five-on-five slipped badly. Huh. Oh well, he’s signed to a friendly contract, short term if it goes sideways.
https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20222023&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&position=C&playerPlayedFor=franchise.31&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=timeOnIcePerGame&page=0&pageSize=50
“”Ross is a hard-working, two-way center with a championship pedigree,” said Avalanche General Manager Chris MacFarland. “He has physicality to his game, is ultra competitive and his versatility will make him a valuable addition to our lineup in a lot of ways.”
Colton registered a career-high 22 goals during the 2021-22 campaign, becoming the ninth player in Tampa Bay history to score 20 goals in his first or second NHL season. He finished second among Lightning forwards in hits (153) and ranked second on the team in face-off win percentage (52.2%).”
https://www.nhl.com/avalanche/news/avalanche-acquires-ross-colton-from-lightning/c-345067486
Ross Colton 2022-23 26YO with EV points in 81 games, 21 and a -8. Ryan Mcleod 23YO with EV points in 57 games, 20 and a +4. Ross Colton also has a career average SHTOI of 0:00. McLeod has 138 games played before his 24YO season. Colton had none. Probably not the horse to hitch your wagon to.
Goals 2022-23
Lehkkonen (21)-MacKinnon (42)-Rantanen (55)
Drouin (2)-Johansen (12) – Nichuskin (17)
Total 149
Kane (16) -McDavid (64)-Hyman(36)
RNH (37) -Draisaitl (52) -Brown (0)
Total 205
I mean, I personally would take the group with more goals and an extra guy who didn’t play last year but that might just be me.
I don’t think Colorado’s Wood (13), Colton (16), Cogliano (10) total 39 outscoring Edmonton’s Foegele (13), McLeod (11) Ryan (13) total 37 is gonna cut it here.
How exactly does Colorado have the better forward group?
Now do Makar and Toews.
So you admit comparing Colorado’s forwards to Edmonton’s was a mistake? Colorado’s D scored 49 goals to Edmonton’s 39. Makar(17) & Toews (7) total 24 to Nurse (12) Bouchard (9) total 21 probably isn’t the big win you thought it was either.
I seem to recall you scoffing at peoples predictions that Zach Hyman would hit new career highs with the Oilers. How did that go for you?
Zach Hyman’s career high before joining the Oilers at 29 years old, 21 goals, 41 points. Last two seasons 27 & 36 goals, 54 and 83 points. Connor Brown’s career high before joining the Oilers at 29 years old…. 21 goals and 43 points…..
And it’s gone!
This went away and is now back. For now….