This is Evan Bouchard. He will be signed soon and the entire world has the contract at two years and something between $3.6 million and $4 million. At this point, the total is less important than it was, because the idea of running a 22-man roster is a distant bell. However, Ken Holland can make a trade, and this would be the time to make it happen.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: The 5 most impressive NHL offseason moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT LINEUP
This is Bouchard at $4 million, 21-man roster and there’s $183,375 in cap room. If Bouchard signs for $3.6 million, the room goes up to $583,375. In order for Holland to shoehorn and other player (we’ll use Lane Pederson) on to the roster, Bouchard would have to come in at $3.5 million and the Oilers would need to send down Raphael Lavoie.
This comes in at $7,500 in room, not much and it’ll make the deadline problematic as is. Of course injuries will impact, but I wonder if the club might make a move leading up to training camp. Holland has his group set, and the question marks are Ceci’s health/the kids. The season will give answers on Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Stuart Skinner. The trade to make today? Brett Kulak.
I traded Kulak for Emil Bemstrom, signed Nick Holden, put Lavoie back on the roster and Holland has $458,375 to spare. I don’t think he does it. Why? Injuries to defensemen are going to happen and Kulak is an actual NHL defenseman. If Holland followed through on this plan, Bouchard could make as much as $3,948,375 and the Oilers would be cap compliant. I don’t think he does that, either.
If the Oilers end up trading Raphael Lavoie, one waiver eligible option is Zac Jones, a lefty blue in the NY Rangers system. He’s going to get squeezed. I still believe Lavoie makes the Oilers, the club needs inexpensive wingers who can score goals.
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
Who are the top defencemen in the NHL?
You voted.
1. Cale Makar
2. Adam Fox
3. Roman Josi
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1687465800473427968?s=20
(Click for the results of 279.000 fan votes)
JFresh
@JFreshHockey
Fan defenceman ranking 65 to 128:
https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1687466036499554304?s=20
How long does it take Jeff Jackson to realize that he needs an upgrade at Tyler Wright? The Wings are in an infinibuild, in part, due to poor drafts under Wright.
Wright picked Zadina at #6 in 2018 and Seider at #6 in 2019. One was an amazing pick and the other a big whiff. It’s really hard to see the whole picture from as far away as we are because we don’t actually know who made the picks and what the rest of their list looks like. Take anybody’s draft list and you’ll find all sorts of hits and misses
There’s a lot of layers to your comment, but I find it to be absolutely fascinating.
You’ve offered a valiant defense of Wright’s poor drafting record without actually providing any substance to support your position while at the same time shifting the burden of proof to me.
What’s more is that you provide the unassailable argument that even though he was the director of amateur scouting, we’ll never ultimately know what decisions he made.
The argument that every scouting director has hits and misses sort of suggests it’s an area that’s impossible to measure outcomes. It seems like a daunting and impossible task to look at a scouting director’s body of work.
If you don’t have a career in public relations, you’ve missed an opportunity to follow an area of immense talent that you possess.
Despite the absolute home run on Seider, the Wings had a terrible run of drafting between 2015 to 2019. Enough of a bad run to leave the franchise in its currently crippled rebuild.
During those 5 years, the Wings had 6 1st round picks, 8 second round picks, 9 3rd round picks, 7 6th round picks, and 8 7th round picks.
Have you actually offered any kind of substance as to why Wright is the wrong man for the job? You’ve really just put out an opinion that Wright=bad therefore Jackson ought to aim higher.
Maybe you should dig a bit deeper as to why you think he’s such a poor director of amateur scouting before you impugn the guy’s reputation and track record, then criticize others for offering their take on the issue. That you brought up, out of nowhere, in the first place. With no substantive explanation.
As you may recall, our fine host recently published a retrospective of Tyler Wright’s work up to date, and offered his analysis based on the body of work in Edmonton as a whole.
Some fine quotes you surely overlooked prior to posting today:
Source: https://lowetide.ca/2023/07/18/the-kids-are-all-wright/
You seem very emotive in your response here. Despite your attempt to broaden the discussion, let’s clarify that I am only offering my commentary with respect to Wright’s draft record.
Either way, I appreciate the strength of conviction you have over your belief Wright’s draft record.
Thank you for showing your work.
Staples was apprehensive of the hire at the time. He wrote this.
Daniel Nugent Bowman was more charitable in his assessment though many of the picks Bowman was on the fence on went to waivers. Here.
I’m not very good at math.
How many of Wright’s first round picks have hit the waiver wire?
Rychel, Dano, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Wennberg, and Zadina. Did I miss anyone?
Name another active scouting director in the NHL who’s had more first round picks placed on waivers.
Lordy, Wright was only scouting director in Columbus for the last 2 years.
The 2 drafts he was in charge of produced Ryan Murray, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Josh Anderson, Alex Wennberg and Joonas Korpisalo.
Surely that’s not a black mark on his record?
You sure seem obsessed with DET and CBJ, but choose to ignore the results of Wright’s drafting in EDM.
Your links are years old, reflecting draft philosophies of completely different organizations.
I referenced an article that is barely two weeks old. Specifically covering his time with the Oilers.
Since we’re here for Oilers content, I’ll ask you directly. What, specifically, do you take issue with concerning Wright’s drafting in Edmonton?
We are talking about Wright’s draft record, no?
Okay, I’ll bite.
True or false? An Uber driver sitting at the draft table with McKenzie’s list would have selected better picks for the Oilers in the first round than Tyler Wright.
I would bring Maggie the Monkey out of the good life of retirement and thrust her back into action. She was phenomenal at picking Playoff winners why can’t she spin the wheel when it comes to the draft.
You’d think the burden of proof, and providing some substance, would fall on the person who asserted this, no?:
I don’t have have ‘proof’, since that would require a lot of work that you obviously also aren’t willing to do, and you likely wouldn’t accept anyway.
I do have a bit of substance though, that I looked up last month when Ryan was lauding the 2017 Dallas draft and questioning Tyler Wright’s record.
At that time I wrote:
Detroit did have more overall picks during that time frame, though Dallas had the only top 5 pick of the two team, and also had more 1st round picks (7 to 6).
I think the ‘Take anybody’s draft list and you’ll find all sorts of hits and misses’ comment was pretty fair.
Using games played is a very blunt instrument.
It is much harder to make the roster of good teams that it is on poor teams.
Using that metric, Yakupov would be considered a successful draft pick.
Players like Thomas Harley and Ty Dellandrea were blocked on the Dallas roster but are now making an impact.
Care to provide something more nuanced that argues something different from what I said?
I already did…you just don’t like it because it exposes the fallacy of your games played qualifier for a “successful” draft pick.
And I gave you several examples of how misleading that can be and why.
That IS nuance.
‘Games played is an imperfect measure’ changes what, exactly, about anything I said?
And can you point out where I used games played to qualify the picks as successful or unsuccessful?
You used GP throughout your missive.
You know, I recall having a discussion (heated) with a surly mob that insisted over and over that Shea Theodore was a dud pick because he wasn’t able to crack the Anaheim lineup and spent considerable time in the AHL.
I explained that was a result of the Ducks D being stacked with veterans not Theodore’s ability.
Well, as it turns out, Theodore was traded to Vegas and BOOM.
While Theodore has far fewer games played than some other D in the 2013 draft, you can easily make the case he was the best defenseman selected in that draft.
If you want to make your analysis meaningful, it must include that nuance.
I believe listing all the draft picks from the respective teams who played in the NHL, plus the number of games they’ve played, is a far more meaningful analysis than anything you’ve provided (ie: ‘game played is not a perfect measure’).
And weird, you still haven’t even said if you disagree with anything I concluded, much less whether some other measure of those draft picks’ worth would lead to a different conclusion.
First you claim you didn’t use GP as a determinant (you used it 20 times) now you are suggesting I need to provide something better, (I already did).
Of course I don’t agree with your conclusions…they totally lack context.
Since you are only looking at 2 teams it wouldn’t be all that difficult to note why some Dallas draft picks might have fewer games played than those who were drafted by Detroit.
For example, how many games would Michael Rasmussen have played if drafted by Dallas?
I listed all of the draft picks for the two teams, and included games played as some form of context. Nowhere did I make any conclusions or determinations based on games played.
It’s farcical that you’re claiming to have provided something better when all you’ve said is games played is a blunt instrument and given 4-5 hand picked examples.
Games played without context is almost meaningless.
I gave you the example of Yakupov who, by your metric, was a successful draft pick.
Do you want to make an argument that he was?
Wow, this is a crazy thread. I’m embarrassed to admit it, but I didn’t actually know that Tyler Wright was a former scouting director for the Blue Jackets. DNB says the past three years there while you contest that it’s only two.
Now you’re a very bright fellow with a facility for numbers and analysis, but if you’ve ever posted any analysis here that didn’t defend the status quo for the Oilers, I haven’t seen it. The corollary to that is either you start with some sort of bias with the intent of defending the status quo, or the Oilers have less room for improvement than I imagine.
The games played fallacy is one that’s been debated for years here in terms of evaluating draft success. This evaluative method obfuscated the Oilers draft problems during the decade of darkness.
To start with, I wouldn’t ascribe credit for drafting players who’re exposed to waivers since they neither comprise the core nor return assets.
Things get complicated really fast. How much credit do you give the Oilers for drafting McDavid, one of the best players of all time, but an absolutely no-brainer decision at the draft? How much do you hang a scout for drafting a Zadina or Murray in the top ten when they’re the consensus picks on McKenzie’s list? How do value the impact of a Roberson level player selected with second round pick or a Mark Stone in the sixth round?
Still I think games played, but subtracting players who were either waved or who haven’t made it past the fourth line or bottom pairing, might be a start. This filters out the Peckmans and Zadinas, at least—players who neither comprise the core nor return assets.
Elite prospects and this Columbus Blue Jackets press release list Wright as one of the club’s directors of amateur scouting starting 2011-12, or August 2011. He left to join Detroit in July 2013, so 2 years.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/9669/tyler-wright
https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/news/blue-jackets-director-of-amateur-scouting-tyler-wright-leaving-the-organizations-hockey-operations-department/c-676065
Yeah, evaluating scouting is difficult. We started today when RR claimed the Oilers need an upgrade on Wright, much like you were suggesting last month. I don’t see any evidence for his record being poor (nor exemplary) and went back to my post comparing his record in Detroit to that of Dallas (who by all accounts have had a great drafting record).
My conclusions were:
You are correct that filtering out the chaff is important. We discussed that last time as well when I added:
I think everything I said was/is very reasonable. I don’t see evidence that Wright has a poor track record. His record in Detroit was not quite as good as Dallas in the same years, but of course they’re held up as an example of top notch drafting. Probably not fair to say ‘Wright needs to be fired’.
Once again that misses roster context.
Would Larkin be #1C ahead of Hintz?
Would Bergrenn be 2LW ahead of Benn?
Would Rasmussen even be on the Dallas roster?
Would Hronek have played 4 seasons at 1RD ahead of Heiskanen?
I expect the answer to all of those questions is no and are prime examples of how ignoring roster construction can lead to faulty conclusions.
And you seem to have missed the point. I said multiple times in my posts that Dallas came out ahead 2014-2019 based on their once in a lifetime 2017 draft.
That doesn’t change the fact that Wright has been consistently drafting quality NHL players through his time as a scouting director.
The evidence you used to support that supposition is bogus.
Wright hit on some players while drafting high in Detroit but none were slam dunks.
Since coming to the Oilers in 2019, not one draft pick has become a regular roster player although Holloway and Broberg should this upcoming season.
However, Holloway has already been passed by several players drafted later and Broberg in a re-draft would likely go MUCH lower.
His record is spotty, at best.
Broberg wasn’t drafted under Wright. That was the year Wright’s staff selected Seider far out of synch with the consensus/potato crowd.
If the Oilers end up trading Raphael Lavoie, one waiver eligible option is Zac Jones, a lefty blue in the NY Rangers system. He’s going to get squeezed. I still believe Lavoie makes the Oilers, the club needs inexpensive wingers who can score goals.
I could see a Lavoie/Jake Evans trade.
Evans is a $1.7MM cap hit so there would need to be some cap structuring in there (i.e. retained or something) but, if there is reality to the Habs always being interested in the “french Canadian”, well, Evans is a player that could fit well in Edmonton for two years.
That would be an interesting trade. Lavoie could potentially be the French Josh Anderson. Wouldn’t that be something.
And Montreal has an excess of players who do or can play centre..
Suzuki
Dach
Monahan
Newhook
Evans
Pitlick
I would imagine Lavoie would quickly become a fan favourite in Montreal as the only other two Francophone regulars on the team are David Savard and Sam Montembeault.
Well, Josh Anderson is terrible except for 1/5 of the games…..
Lavoie could be terrible too.
He sure could be. I’m hoping he’s not but he sure could be. Hence why he could be available for a veteran 4C signed for a couple of years like Jake Evans – futures for immediate help.
Could work out great – could win a cup and Lavoie ends up a tweener.
Could be awful, Evans could fall flat and Lavoie pops.
Could be in the middle – Oilers win a cup and Lavoie has some good years in the middle six for the Habs.
Yup it could go either way. Who knows? Lavoie would probably love to be a Montreal Canadien. And Evans would no doubt be a good, not great Oiler.
He made it to a Cup Final. Josh scores 20 would be 25 but he misses games because of his willingness to go to the net hard.
This isn’t true.
Josh Anderson is a terrible player on a terrible contract.
OP is spot on.
Anderson flat out did a number on us on several occasions. Did he not be honest with your self? When healthy Anderson can control a game with his speed and physicality.
How often? He’s a 30 point player. He bested 32 points once in his career. Scored 20 twice. Be honest with yourself. How does any player control a game when he has a career high of 27 goals and 47 points, and is usually at 32 points or less?
At this point, I wouldn’t even try and shoehorn in that 13th forward, even if there was technical cap room.
A key is that, at least to start, they will be a few hundred grand under the cap and that makes a difference – as they will “accrue some cap space” and bank it.
Lets not forget, the cap hit of a team is calculated every day. If there are 180 days in the NHL season, take the annual cap hit of the team on that day and divide it by 180 – that’s what they’ve spent.
Any day they are under the cap, they save 1/180 of that amount and can spend it later.
Lets say that a $1MM player is only on the roster for exactly half the days in the season, his cap impact at the end of the season is $500K.
Every day and every dollar they are under helps – they can “spend that money” later in the year and, also, every dollar they are under at the end will be used for Brown’s bonus and reduce next year’s cap impact.
One year at $3.5M for Bouchard makes too much sense, with the cap going up next year.
Why only get one year of extreme value when they could get two years in the $3.9MM range?
Cap is going up next year but the Oilers will be in a massive cap crunch next season, even with Bouch at $3.9MM (apx) let alone in need of a (presumably) massive raise.
Lets not forget, the cap can only go up by 4.175MM as increases are currently capped at 5%.
I think we all expect the Oilers to “spend” any left over and accrued cap space in-season so almost all of Brown’s $3.25MM bonus will hit next year’s cap (and, if Holloway or Broberg hit any of their Sched A bonuses, well, that will hit next year’s cap as well).
Because they are in win now mode. They can worry about next year, next year.
They are in win now mode, that includes next season as well. I don’t see saving $400K on the cap this year and taking a massive $4MM (or so) increase to Bouch’s cap hit next year makes any sense.
Unforseen things usually happen that make the future unpredictable. Therefore it’s best to stay in the present. But you are probably right Bouchard wants $4M ×2 and it’s been reported they’re $100,000 apart. So they mostlikely settle for $3.9Mx2. But IMO it’s better for the team this year if they settle on $3.5Mx1. Even better $3.5Mx2. Whatever happens, happens. We can rehash this later. LOL.
We’re at the point where it’s all going to come down to training camp. I could see a player acquired or a PTO signed but training camp is where weird things can happen because of injuries both on our team and other teams or a player suddenly lights it up. If Jack Campbell was unable to play, the entire plan would change right there so no need to shoehorn in an extra F before camp starts.
I like Kulak but I don’t love Kulak.
He was given a very legit chance to be an effective 2LHD and failed like a long line of Klefbom replacements before him. He is a good 3LHD on a team that deploys a 7 defensemen line-up alot.
The team’s choice is a good 3LHD for the regular season or more cap space at the trade deadline. I would be assuming the Oilers are going to the play-offs with or without Kulak.
Kulak is a good 3C who can step up in a pinch. He’s good cover for the young kids or for a vet if there’s an injury.
You trade him now and and there’s an injury, you are really thin. That’s why d-men at the trade deadline have greater value – teams need cover for injuries – especially come playoffs.
I guess the real question is given the cap space, is Kulak a luxury we can’t afford? We’ll know soon enough. I’d rather keep him for insurance.
I don’t think Kulak was thought of as the long term left D second pair solution, and being signed at only $2.7 million, he wasn’t being paid like it. I think the expectation/hope in the summer of 2022 was that Kulak/Broberg were going to break camp with Kulak holding the 2nd pair down till Broberg grew into the role. Broberg’s injuries, which hampered his camp and got him sent to Bakersfield, put that plan on hold. By the trade deadline, Holland knew to put on a better run to and into the playoffs he needed help on the back end and the best option available and actionable was Ekholm. They had toyed with the idea of getting Karlsson, which would have resulted in a whole different plan on the back end.
With the depth on the left side right now, they have the option of having Broberg play the right side if he takes the next step forward. Holland’s M.O. would suggest he will keep Kulak at least until his expectations on Broberg taking the next step are actually met, then consider his options on whether to move Kulak out to run with other cheaper options on his 3rd pair.
Might as well keep Kulak and treat him like the vet dman upgrade we get every year at the trade deadline. We would get poor value for him now and have to spend more for less at the TDL. We were also unusually healthy on defense last season – unlikely to be so lucky again this year.
I can’t understand why people want to make the forwards or defense weaker by trading Foegle or Kulak just to improve our pressbox. Doesn’t make sense. Run 21, bank the cap, keep Kulak and Foegle, and see what we need after new year.
Agreed. If they had wanted to move any of the ‘usual suspects’ it would/should have been done in June when they could have brought back real value. Moving them now falls more into the ‘dump them’ than ‘trade them’ bin with the requisite loss of value.
Very true. Trading Foegle only makes sense if he returns a big, fast bottom 6 player who is both better and cheaper. Trading Kulak only makes sense if he returns a RD who is both cheaper and better than Ceci. The first trade is unlikely and the second one is pretty much impossible.
So why didn’t Holland? A few of us can see the need to flush at the right time then patiently wait for the 1/2 price sales in late summer. As a great man once said . Who’s baby is that? What’s your angle? I’ll buy that! Holland’s alright but he’s no wheeler and dealer.
I have no idea why Holland didn’t/couldn’t pull the trigger in June. I was one of those here who felt that he should but, of course, I didn’t know that Brown was in his pocket for league minimum which Holland undoubtedly did know. I thought it would cost more to fix 2RW than it did. (Yes OP. I know about next year’s bonus hit.)
Holland has himself in a bit of a situation having gone out and traded for Ekholm. I understand the logic of doing so and love the player but all of a sudden Broberg being unable to fill that role in time for the playoffs has that position bursting at the seams.
Even if Holland did trade Kulak is 3LD really what he had in mind when he drafted Broberg? I doubt it.
So now he is going to take a chance on stalling Broberg’s development by moving him to RD? It appears that is the plan but I doubt it was Plan A going into TC last fall.
No wonder Holland says he has Broberg on his mind a lot this summer.
As for Holland not being a wheeler dealer if I recall correctly it was his ability to stabilize the franchise that made him an appealing add when he was hired. And he has done that. But I would have been happier if at least Foegele had been moved in June.
I would reason that Holland didn’t/couldn’t pull the trigger on trading Kulak/Foegele in June is that the plan then and now is for both of them to be on the roster going into the season. Fair for you to disagree with his plan, but your post suggests he overlooked the possibility of trading and is now probably regretting it. Plans can change, and Holland adapts depending on events occurring or who becomes comes available, but I don’t think anything has happened that Holland hadn’t considered as possible back in June.
No, I wasn’t implying anything like that. In fact what I said is that he undoubtedly knew that he had his top six RW signed for league minimum so didn’t feel the need to pull the trigger to move a ~$3 M contract.
I would have but that is just my opinion. Holland has all sorts of smart guys offering input. I have no doubt it was considered and rejected.
Then I guess your first sentence was hyperbole then.
Word has it, at least from Seravalli that the Brown deals wasn’t a sure thing till just after the free agency window opened. Holland probably felt good about it but he is cagey enough not to count his chickens before they’re hatched. He was feeling pretty good about Larsson staying but had to go to plan B when Larsson changed his mind.
Not hyperbole on my part. I have no idea why Holland does or doesn’t do anything. I just note that I would have made a trade if it had been my decision. And, of course, Holland couldn’t say anything different than what he did. He was under contract until then.
This is the plan. Realistically, Kulak and Foegele both have value at the deadline if we wanted to add someone but trading out a decent fifth defender or middle-six winger for the ambiguous “cap space” doesn’t really help.
Because you can replace both players for have the price. The league has changed there’s lots of PTO who are 26-30 that are capable Journeyman NHLers.
The whole idea is to make the team better and there is no one on a PTO who is better than Kulak or Foegle. Both are guys who bat lower in the lineup but can jump up with the big boys short term and do a good job. That costs more than a million dollars. Ultimately what you want is Holloway and Broberg to prove they are just as good or better but they haven’t done that yet. Patience.
What 3LD signed for less than Kulak’s cap hit that you consider better than he is?
I’m excited to see Lavoie this camp. Am I wrong or does Holland hold the hammer on the Bouchard contract situation. He doesn’t have arb rights. If he has to miss the first 10 games in a hold out it only helps the Oilers with their cap situation. The Oilers are in no danger of missing the playoffs. Watching another player succeed on the power play may bring down Bouchard’s value (it may bring up his value also if it struggles).
One would hope he takes a discount for the good of the team like MacLeod did.
He has the hammer, only to an extent. The end goal is to get him on a long term deal at some point. Playing too rough on the bridge deal could scutter that effort after the bridge deal expired. Burning bridges and all that….
Treliving learned this through his approach in Calgary.
Friedman saying this morning he expects the Bouchard signing is the next RFA announcement within days in the $4M range.
Besides the long term relationship issues with a protracted hold out, players who miss camp and a chunk of games at the start of the season often have trouble catching up with their team mates and their performance can suffer for an extended period after they rejoin the line up.
On top of that, the Oiler’s right side depth on D is already thin with Bouchard in the line up. Absent signing someone like Dumba to a cheap contract, the Oilers would be starting the season with Ceci, Desharnais, Broberg, Kemp and Wanner as their Right D options. Not a recipe for success if the goal is to get off to a good and sustainable start.
There is also the issue of mid-season signings having a higher cap hit/rate in the first season than if they were signed mid-season (because they thought of this loophole). This is why William Nylander had one year at 10.3M and Evander Kane’s 1.357M salary had a cap hit of 2.1M in 2022 and how Brogan Rafferty became a 5M player for 4 days. Signing Bouchard after the start of the season would be bad.
Maybe you get a slightly lower cap hit over two years by structuring the Bouch contract heavily toward year two. Something like $2.5 million in year one and $5 million in year two (if that’s possible). Cap over two years would be $3.75 million and his QO would be substantial but still well within the range of what’s expected. He gives up a bit overall but that’s a nice salary in year 2 and matching QO number after that.
— I will post my few thoughts before reading LTs article on the Athletic Re :Jackson.
— it is an amazing hire IMO. Sure there is the “it helps the chances of McD resigning”. As would have for instance hiring a McD family member
— Jackson is well respected, worked for the Leafs (it’s interesting he left when Burke arrived, also a lawyer). He’s here on merit and varied career progression.
— I can’t think of an Oilers hire in management that required the candidate to be convinced and who was leaving a great gig prior: Holland, Nicholson, Lowe, Chia MacT the OBC etc: all these guys were gifted basically their roles, and had nothing better going on.
— Jackson is risking a lot. He would have had to buy into their pitch and the org would have had to agreed with his takes.
— For this hire Holland and whoever else (Coffey) , Katz deserve a lot of credit. Jackson will presumably expand the range of other hires well beyond the limited range the organization has reached to in the past. Jackson doesn’t bleed Oil and has reach.
— That there was no leak of this is also a massive step forward. very pleased.
We may never find out but you have to think Jackson got a significant amount of money to walk away from his agent position given the very large number of lucrative contracts he had under his purview.
Katz certainly not being cheap.
The hire reflects the new normal imo where the superstar athletes have the dominant organizational influence.
Credit to Katz for knowing the lay of the land and spending his money wisely to keep McDavid invested. With this franchise now, it’s Connor’s world. We’re just living in it.
All that said, i do like Jackson’s resume.
— To the extent McD had “influenced” this we don’t know. That said it’s a good hire in a vacuum for an organization that has a history of hiring underwhelming people to critical roles, based mostly on OBC and/or being available.
— If McD did suggest strongly that he’d like his agent to be the CEO so be it. Fortunately the candidate is worthy beyond historical relationship with McD.
— I’d have never had issue with the Oiler (or any organization in any industry) hiring practices reliant to some extent on relationships and history. Jackson though comes with vastly superior skills and merit and in his prime and great get most organizations would want than anyone I can think of the Oil hiring since Katz took over.
Agreed. Personally I find it difficult to believe that McDavid was involved other than get his opinion as part of the vetting process.
Your belief runs contrary to everything we have seen reported in the last 10 years in regards to the organizational influence of the top athletes. The Lebrons, Ohtanis, Rogers, Messis, and McDavids of this world have organizational influence commensurate with their salaries and drawing power. To think otherwise now is naive imo.
— Its speculation. Fortunately Jackson has the credentials.
— If I was Jackson and had ambitions about getting back in NHL management: I wouldn’t be the first person in any business to put out feelers through my best client(s) for some introductions.
— This isn’t a “you played for the Oil and dont have a job, have we got a job to take of you”
— McD by all accounts is a knowledgeable hockey guy. He wants to win. He used his influence wisely if indeed he said to the team;” hey my agent is looking at getting back into management”.
— A judicious flex if so.
Agreed. As said, it’s the new normal.
Not only is this consistent with the behaviour of the top elite athletes, it’s consistent with the values and beliefs of Millennials and Gen Z. They want a say in C suite decisions now regardless of whether that’s appropriate to their skills and experience or not.
It’s the way of the world. Fortunately for Oiler fans, Connor is a nuanced and deliberate thinker. At the end of the day the process has resulted in a great hire.
None of us really know how this came to be – we can take Jackson’s word at face value (i.e. Katz and Coffey came to him) to commence the process or we can speculate otherwise.
All is fair.
Absolutely McDavid has superstar power to influence the organization’s decisions, however, for me, I don’t imagine this was “McDavid’s idea”.
I don’t see McDavid suggesting to his decade long advisor, who I’m sure he trusts in all areas with no hesitation, to no longer be his advisor and work as management on the team.
@Sportsnet
The Penguins could try to close a deal on Erik Karlsson this weekend, per @FriedgeHNIC
Pittsburgh Penguins
@penguins
Jake Guentzel underwent successful right ankle surgery.
The surgery was performed on August 2 by Dr. Chris Coetzee at Twin Cities Orthopedics.
Guentzel will be re-evaluated in 12 weeks.
The Penguins have placed him on LTIR freeing up some wiggle room to acquire Karlsson.
I would think Jeff Petry would be among the pieces headed to San Jose.
Unless Guentzel is gone for the season, him being on LTIR only creates wiggle room till Guentzel returns, then they have still have the full scope of the problem to deal with. And Petry can only be considered in a direct transaction if San Jose is not on his 15 team no trade list. If San Jose is on the list, they would still have the option of trading him to another team not on that list, but that makes it more complicated and possibly more costly overall. San Jose as a city may not be in the bottom 15 for destinations, but their recent team performance may get them on a few lists. I think players have a right to update and re-submit their no trade lists at the start of each contract year (typically July 1).
It’s quite possible Guentzel is considered for the Stone treatment. Notice that the release says he will be “evaluated” in 12 weeks.
And, yeah, it will indeed be a complicated transaction but Pittsburgh does posses all its 1st round picks to use as currency and if there was ever a team in win now mode it is the Penguins.
I can’t see any way this can work without Petry leaving both from a cap and roster perspective since Letang, Karlsson, Petry at RD is just not viable.
If Petry and his $6.26 million cap hit leaves and the Penguins demote one of their 3 goaltenders they would have almost $10 million in cap space including the LTIR so it would seem doable although they very well might have to retain on Petry.
If, as Friedman notes, some clarity is expected this weekend, you would have to think Dubas has a destination in mind for Petry.
Something else to consider is that Guentzel is on an expiring contract and the Penguins signed Reilly Smith who could be seen as a direct replacement for Guentzel so if he is ready to go during the season, they could potentially trade him (12 team no trade list) when he comes off LTIR.
Another note here…
Pittsburgh has a buyout window open after Drew O’Connor filed for arbitration and speculation is Dubas could buy out Michael Granlund which would free up $4.67 million for next season.
Guentzel’s situation is a long way removed right now from the Stone and Kucherov situations. Guentzel’s surgery was performed ~9 months from what will be the start of the 2024 playoffs. While the prognosis for Guentzel’s return is a minimum of 12 weeks, there is no way anyone on Pittsburgh would be making concrete plans that would require them to stretch that out an extra 6 months.
Both Stone and Kucherov on the day their surgeries were performed were given recovery times that were fortunate to roughly coincide with when the playoffs would start and those recovery times were also consistent with the normal recovery times for the injuries and surgeries they had. At the front end, maybe they delayed the surgeries slightly (which would never be considered a violation of the CBA nor should it be) or at the back end fudged the recoveries by maybe a week or so, which would be hard to prove.
Curious that this surgery was done in August instead of April when the Penguins missed the playoffs.
It makes perfect sense when you read the entirety of the new release. He, his team, the organization and the doctors hoped summer rehab would be enough and finally decided it wouldn’t be. Based on where Guentzel is at in regards to his next contract which is eligible for renewal right now and expires at the end of the season, he wouldn’t be party to any LTIR gamesmanship that would have him missing any unnecessary playing time. Anything but a full and speedy recovery will have a significant impact on his next contract.
Interesting that the Oilers have updated their Hockey Operations page and now include Coffey. But Staios isn’t listed . . .
Off to Ottawa as rumoured?
Time will tell, I suppose.
It’s down to Brad Holland and Keith Gretzky.
I keep hearing Bouchard signed for $3.9Mx2. I guess it isn’t official yet. If that’s the case, there’s no hope for a 22-man roster. I suppose they’re ok with the 21-man roster.
The other thing that catches my attention is Paul Stastny. I think he may be the best option available for the 4c. If they can get him to sign for the league minimum. Maybe set up some kind of over 35 bonus arrangement. He wants to play for a contender and that is what I believe the Oilers are. Those are my thoughts for the day, over and out.
Where are you hearing that? Holland himself when asked yesterday said nothing till next week and that the parties are close, but not close enough yet.
I saw it on the internet a few times this morning. Don’t know how factual it is. I guess we’ll see.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-oilers-sign-ryan-mcleod-to-two-year-extension/c-345498980
Obviously, the sooner Holland gets Bouchard now signed, the sooner he and his team can direct their focus solely to any potential signings or trades if he feels he needs to go that route. Even now though, they are very likely running through various scenarios using the lower and upper end of where they believe the contract will land (and that’s not necessarily based on each party’s latest offer, if the Oiler’s last offer was $3.2 Million and Bouchard’s counter was $4.5 for example, the Oilers might feel it will end up somewhere between say $3.6 and $4.2 million). At least now with McLeod settled, that is one less variable they have to worry about.
Seems like the contract won’t happen this week, as mentioned by Holland, since Dave Gagner is over at the Hlinka tournament, and not back until at least Sunday. The most important deadline at this point for the team and Bouchard to get it done though is September 11, which is the date for Oiler’s pre-camp physicals. Any time before then and there is no disruption to camp. I would think Bouchard would be more like McLeod and show up in Edmonton with the other players for pre camp optional skates etc. and not be like Bear was during his contract negotiations with the Oilers.
IIRC it was reported about the time McLeod signed, give or take, that the Oil and Bouch were about 100,000 apart… so very close. My take is either 3.4-3.5, or 3.7-3.8 are the high and low boundaries depending on the source you use. I could be mistaken-according to my ex that has a high probability in all things.
Friedman on Bouchard this morning.
https://youtu.be/fC9CECOcatk?t=422
I would be surprised if its not done next week.
There have been accounts (unofficial) that they are like $100K apart and Holland even said they were close.
Don’t disagree on the “deadline” – day 1 of camp, end stop. Just don’t see it dragging to that (like it has with McLeod and Yamo in the past).
CapFriendly
@CapFriendly
Tom Wilson Washington Capitals
7 year / $45.5M extension
$6.5M AAV
Wilson was set to become a UFA next summer.
How about them aging curves?
That is a horrendous contract.
That’s a bad contract in year 1. And then just gets worse
Has to be in the running for worst contract of the off season, no?
Honestly can’t think of one worse.
And why a year before necessary?
Wilson only played 33 games last season due to injury and who knows about recovery?
Almost buyout proof too.
The last two years are $900K in salary and $4.5 million in signing bonuses.
I don’t give a rat’s ass about the rating system, but how does THIS get three down votes in 30 minutes? This is good information.
Popularity votes are to content quality what the Kardashians are to modesty.
I don’t get it either. It doesn’t reflect well on those who do this imo.
“With the cap rising in the next few years, how should we best spend it to improve our team?”
“The same thing we do every year, Pinky, spend it on aging vets and giving them too long contracts”
There was a period I was becoming worried that the Oilers were going to fall behind other organizations who were becoming more analytics focused and were more frugal with their spending.
And then other orgs go out and do stuff like this.
For all of the flak the Oilers get for not winning a cup with McDavid and Draisaitl, I remind myself that Ovechkin, who is arguably the greatest goal scorer of all time, is 37 and has only 1 Stanley Cup.
Woodguy
@Woodguy55
WSH signing Wilson until he’s 36 today reminded me of the Lucic contract. Benoit Pouliot had a similar career arc as Looch (albeit shorter) and I had this comparison on my computer already so I added Wilson as he’s similar too.
Here’s each players’ 5v5 pts/60 per age season:
https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1687538865559801856?s=20
@Woodguy55
What WSH is doing looks like they decided to:
“Sign our most liked players for too long so people will come to the rink while we aren’t good and Ovi is chasing Gretzky. We’ll get a high picks for ~5 years and re-load while keeping fans somewhat happy during the downswing”
Lavoie has a bigger right tail from the short to long term than anything that he could be replaced with at this point. Selling the right tail would be extremely unwise. Lavoie is a free option on a potential top six goal scoring wingers, with no downside, because the left tail can always be cut off by a cap minimum veteran.
Likewise playing Broberg on the right side with Nurse is a free short-dated option on a potential cheap top 4D, with no downside, because Ceci is an adequate stop gap till the trade deadline.
Bet on the right tail. Because there really is no downside.
1) I’m hoping Lavoie develops in to the top six goal scoring power forward. Of course, he may just be a tweener. We don’t know.
I look forward to him having a great camp, earning an opportunity on the opening night roster and keeping it going.
At the same time, if we believe what Stauffer opines, it doesn’t seem like they have him even penciled in to the opening roster. Stauff has him projected to be waived all off-season and still projects that even with no locked in 12th forward.
If he doesn’t make the team, yet again, and there is a trade out there for an established 4C like Evans, I could see that “win now move” being made.
I prefer Lavoie to pop and make it but we don’t know.
2) If they are going to move Broberg up the lineup on his off-side (and I’m not against that at all), it seems logical to have him with Ekholm and Bouch with Nurse.
Nurse/Bouch have a history of success together and both succeed with McDavid and both should get plenty of McDavid minutes.
3) Ek seems like the perfect partner for Broberg if he’s going to get some higher leverage deployment.
Always deferring to Stauffer about Lavoie. Never post about Lavoie not making the team without mentioning his thoughts, repeatedly. He’s an Oiler insider, but he doesn’t pick the team or set the lineup. Repeatedly bringing up his opinion doesn’t make it right.
Repeatedly again, with the Bouchard should play with Nurse to get McDavid minutes. Bouchard got 40+ points playing more minutes without McDavid than with. Spread it out. Use the puck moving dman with other forwards that can use the help with offense than with the player that can carry the puck all the way up ice himself. McDavid can rush the puck up himself as well as Bouchard can pass the puck up. Why cut both their strengths in half having both on ice at same time? If McDavid is carrying the puck up ice, Bouchard isn’t using his up-ice ability. If Bouchard is using his up-ice ability, McDavid isn’t using his rush ability.
I have been very clear that, for me, Lavoie goes in to camp as the 12F, competing with Pederson and a potential depth signing/camp invite.
I think Stauffer’s continued and consistent thoughts on Lavoie’s opening night placement is relevant – sorry if that bothers you.
Please tell me why you think Broberg is a better option to play with Nurse than Bouchard – that is the context of the discussion – you aren’t propagating the discussion but taking a decade plus resentment and jealousy of me to a new forum.
Apologies if suggesting that the Oilers best transition passer should play with the world’s best rush player – I know it causes you feelings because of “debate the poster” but it is what it is.
I’d rather make hay with Foegele than Kulak. Kulak looked great in the Vegas series and gives us one more year of ‘youth protection and development’.
Foegele is a good hockey player and could surprise this year, but is more replaceable at a lower cost. Much less risk.
I agree, but the rumours have the inner circle of power liking Foegele.
One wing to rule them all eh?
The longer term solution is making Campbell go away. He’s the only really bad contract on the Oilers (aside from Nurse but Nurse is a core player).
My thinking is any change is 2024 off season, or even this trade deadline If Stu regesses and Campbell does not recover, we are in a desperate situation and the play is to keep Stu as backup and go for a new starter by the deadline. iF Stu holds the crease on merit, Campbell is moved in the offseason for an appropriately priced 1B/backup at around 2-2.5m Two years of performance on a five year deal is fair evaluation period.
My expectation is that Stu continues to hold the crease, Campbell rebounds enough to be traded for an acceptable backup, or is sold cheap with no withheld salary to get cap space and the new backup is sourced from either another team/FA/the farm.
Does say Holden and Suter vs. Keeping Foegle make you a better team? That’s the question, perhaps Jackson arriving will bring fresh eyes to a conversation that begins with “I’m new here, why aren’t we doing X?”
Another thought is what is their view of Bouchard? Do their metrics show them what the ones we’ve seen show, that he’s already really good in the most important things?
Because signing him long term now would be an enormous gain down the road. To me a top GM would have his decision on the kid, and if it’s hold then you make cap room. Foegele is a decent player, but there are a lot of guys who can do his thing for less
And being buddies or liked should not weigh much into team building. Nurse got overpaid because of indecision or not being able to evaluate properly and not signing him earlier. That is far more impactful on Cup hopes than marginal player’s contributions are. In negative way
What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
https://theathletic.com/4746378/2023/08/03/oilers-jeff-jackson-hire-ceo/