I’m looking forward to tonight’s game, mostly because it should give us a chance to see what kind of a problem solver Kris Knoblauch will be as Oilers coach. He has to make a decision in goal (Skinner has played a lot lately, Calvin Pickard not at all), and on defense (Philip Broberg could slide in for Vincent Desharnais) we might see a change after a loss. There’s also an extra roster spot, could we see a recall?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why the Oilers making a productive goalie trade is an expensive proposition
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top prospects impacted by struggles and injuries
- DNB: Who is new Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch? These 3 traits define his approach
- Lowetide: Oilers winger Connor Brown and the question of his optimal usage
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers forward Dylan Holloway’s injury highlights concern over offensive potential
- Lowetide: What Oilers management must reckon with in roster construction
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers’ transition of power happening in real-time and the stakes couldn’t be higher
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers suddenly able to develop their own goalies?
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough value contracts this season?
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers’ crisis shifts to embarrassment after loss to the Sharks
- Lowetide: What if the Edmonton Oilers end up in the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery?
- Lowetide: 6 ways the Edmonton Oilers can improve in November
- Lowetide: Oilers already leaning on a push from the AHL. Who could be next?
- Lowetide: Can Connor McDavid come from behind to win another Art Ross Trophy?
- Lowetide: Will Edmonton Oilers redeem themselves after baffling October?
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: DAL, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN, SJS, SEA (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: NYI, SEA (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR, WAS (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual November results: 3-5-0, 6 points in 8 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 5-10-1, 11 points in 16 games
Anna McCurdy and Jo-Anne didn’t know each other, but their men are friends and Anna began this project in the hours after Bruce told her about my wife’s illness. It was such a wonderful moment and is such a great tribute to a life well lived. Anna called it ‘quality comfort’ and that rings so true. We thank her, me and the kids and Ziggy. Don’t worry, it’s going on the wall in the living room. Jo-Anne would kick my ass till Tuesday if I let Ziggy lay on it.
THE OILERS
There are still (incredibly) six games left in the month. Edmonton needs to win all of the games of course, but that won’t happen. For me, this would be a time to try out Broberg with Ekholm and check down Evan Bouchard to the Brett Kulak pairing. Vincent Desharnais has been running cold in November. Here are the five-on-five goal shares during the month.
- Evan Bouchard 6-6 (50 pct)
- Cody Ceci 6-6 (50 pct)
- Darnell Nurse 6-7 (46 pct)
- Mattias Ekholm 5-6 (45 pct)
- Brett Kulak 2-6 (25 pct)
- Vincent Desharnais 1-6 (14 pct)
- Philip Broberg 0-1
The third pairing should be able to saw off the soft parade. I haven’t yet tracked the rotation of Edmonton’s defense, but it feels like the new coaching staff is just rolling three pairs at five-on-five with the commercial breaks allowing them to skip Kulak-Desharnais. Again, I haven’t tracked and the eye test is not reliable. Feels like it is, though. I would check down Bouchard to Kulak and run Broberg with Ekholm.
FIVE-ON-FIVE SCORING
Connor McDavid’s five-on-five performances through the years have been majestic. Last year, through 14 games, he owned a 2.69 pts-60 in the discipline. This year, McDavid’s five-on-five pts-60 is 1.34 and that’s shocking. It’s exactly one half of last year’s total.
Leon Draisaitl’s number last season through 14 (2.04) was shy of this season (2.59) although many are down on his play as well. Away from McDavid, at five-on-five, Draisaitl’s goal share is 6-7 (46 percent). Last season, through 14, it was 9-11 (45 percent).
Together last season (again through 14) the two men were 1-0 goals, this season it’s 7-4 (64 percent). That’s strong.
McDavid solo last season in the first 14 games was 10-9 (53 percent). Away from Leon this season, he is 0-5 goals. There’s something up with the captain.
SLUMPS
I use five-on-five because it’s the biggest game state and a level playing field. I think people are getting ahead of themselves about what is wrong with the team. When I see “trade Stuart Skinner!” then I have to wonder if we are truly a smart fan base. When you have 50 percent of a tandem, adding is the key, not subtracting. So, when we talk about goaltending being the issue, let’s agree that finding a partner for Skinner is the goal.
When we talk about helping the defense, let’s agree that Philip Broberg should be given an opportunity to play before jettisoning him for a rental goalie.
Finally, if we’re going to talk about slumps, let’s use five-on-five and identify the individuals in slumps. It’s important.
Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman are delivering more than expected, and offensively Evander Kane and Warren Foegele are posting strong seasons. James Hamblin has been a pleasant early outscorer. The Ryan McLeod line is struggling and that hurts. Connor McDavid is your lead story here. I don’t know how we can talk around it.
A busy afternoon on the Lowdown, Sports 1440. Jason Gregor will join us and we’ve reached out to Steve Simmons and hope to have him on today. His column had an interesting item on a candidate for next Oilers general manager (here) and we’ll drill down on that idea. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Remember when KK said that players like consistency and then started game one with 97 and 29 on different lines and it was an excellent game and balanced and 97 and 29 were both under 20 minutes? Good times.
I was on board with replacing Woodcroft, but the idea behind replacing a head coach is that something should change.
Connor Brown:
11gp – 0 goals – 0 assists = 0 points.
GF 1 / GA 5
Got zoomed up to play McDrai tonight as well…
RIP to the puck that happens to come into contact with Brown’s stick.
They made a big mistake not cutting Brown loose and they made a big mistake with Woodcroft.
What. A. Mess.
Yamamoto and Kostin out for this useless guy yikes! Analytics be damned, he is a big fat ZERO where it counts.
It feels like every bet Holland has made, has not worked out. He is playing roulette while the league is playing poker.
Really does feel like this season is pretty much over as far as playoffs and what not.
Wow – in November – crazy.
Will still watch ever game from start to finish but what a wild turn.
That’s why I switched to radio. Seriously you are less invested and doing other things, and the games seem more entertaining.
Cam Moon has done an outstanding job calling the games this year- especially considering the circumstances. He certainly enjoys the skill he watches and sounds like he hasn’t lost hope. I appreciate his effort.
I wish the same can be said for his sidekick. The colour man is in a dark place. Half the time the broadcast is just quiet after a GA- when it’s his turn to break down the breakdown. I’m sure it’s a really hard thing to do when one is so very, very disappointed but I require real time critical analysis of the Oilers suck right now please and thank-you.
If I wanted to be less invested and do other things, I have that choice – I choose to watch the games and see what the players are doing – best way to be informed to evaluate performance.
Agreed. It’s very sad, but the competitive part of the season feels like it’s over.
Sadly, I agree.
I’m hoping we see development of Bourgault, Holloway, Lavoie, and Broberg. Maybe even give Rodrigue a run for a few games.
Nothing a good 15 game winning streak won’t fix!
But seriously, I’m almost there too but not quite. I think 2/3 losses in the next three games seal the playoff fate of this team.
Good effort from Pickard but he’s an ahl goalie and didn’t move the needle. He is at Jack Campbell level.
Inexcusable to lead 2-0 in both of these last games and lose them both in regulation. It just can’t happen.
They were so good with the lead before. I think goaltending is part of it, the 2-2 goal was a bit of a deflator. But they need to find a way to change/simplify the game with the lead. I just don’t understand they were a solid, solid team with the lead that could prey on mistakes.
Keep the good starts coming, find a way to finish.
Ekholm struggled big time tonight. He was coming around but maybe playing with Bouchard has him rattled. I counted at least 4 times Bouchard mishandled the puck behind his net tonight leading to a dangerous turnover. He seems completely incapable of making a desperate play when in trouble. All D men have to go off the glass and out once in awhile. I was thinking before the game that the coach should tell him to just get through one game without having a 5 star blunder and then build off of that. Then he coughed up the puck behind his net 10 mins into the game and 3 seconds later it was in the back of the net. Sigh.
So many guys are hurt, that is the problem. It’s no locker room thing or conspiracy
If I was the owner, I’d be asking why do 3-4 guys all have hip issues, and why is Connor toast to start the season? What are we doing wrong? Why are Bro and Holloway so weak on their skates at their size? And getting blown up? Don’t we have Frickin coaches?
What evidence is there of multiple injuries?
They say nothing much but reports started in camp. Guys missed camp. Missed the start of the season
Ekholm, McLeod, Kulak at camp. Any others?
Who knows
Happens to many teams.
Yes and Vegas missed the playoffs recently bcs of it
Just out of wildcard. Our turn
0-8-1 against playoff teams.
Game over man, game over.
On the power play Draisaitl doesn’t leave his corner the whole time. When he gets the puck he dusts it off 10 times looking to make a pass. Everyone is standing still. No one is open because everyone is in position.
When a power play struggles it’s time to double the shots from the point and get two guys infront of the net.
To be frank, it’s smartest man in the room syndrome
Everyone knows what the MO is. But they still try it. The more pressure the less creative they are, making it easier to defend
And finally they have hit the wall. Time for new and better ideas
The highlight of my day is the beautiful quilt and inscription from Anna McCurdy. Even the little Ziggy is paying it respect. Thanks for sharing.
Seconding this. The important things in life.
If the Oilers did major in-season surgery, who is the one player they should be willing to pay dearly for? Who would move the needle?
This of course assumes that several of our players are untradeable.
I think it has to be a RD who can defend and simplify Bouchard’s role.
Rasmus Andersson, maybe?
Ryan Pulock? Artem Zub?
I despise Amdersson, and I’d trade Bouchard and McLeod for him in a heartbeat.
Bouchard getting roasted. McDavid under scrutiny.
When is it missing man Nuge’s turn? MIA
Ya I know. Yikes.. he’s got this huge long contract now.. just when the body and reflexes reverse. I was thinking, bundle up nuge for a sale here, with Fogle and Mcleod..
Nuge MIA? 4 assists and even in the last 5 games. I don’t think he’s part of the problem….
Nuge did have two wonderful assists last game.
Indeed
RNH has scored 1 goal (evens) in 17 games now.
While certainly not the problem…..no one can accuse the Nuge of helping.
Caught the last 2 periods on the radio. I must say, Bob Stauffer maybe needs to be replaced or take a nice long vacation. His commentary has become morose. Kind of Eeyore-like.
Something may be wrong with bouchard, aside from not being very strong or defending well. Something is not computing here.
Is the oilers fitness poor? Is there some unspoken impediment to their cardio?
They are playing like they are sleep deprived and nutrient deficient, or possibly ill somehow.
They do get team sick every fall. Especially Baby Nuge. Every year for him
I did notice after Vinnie’s fight he was breathing pretty hard in the PB, but the Panthers player looked ready to go. I could be imagining things though
I don’t want to get people upset but I work in health care and covid is everywhere right now. As is RSV.
ER last night was a symphony of people coughing.
So now that Bouchard put me in a tough spot tonight.
Time to deflect slightly and remind everyone that Jeff Jackson negotiated Bouchard’s extension this offseason.
And he negotiated Connor Brown’s deal.
And he brought in Sam Ganger.
All three of Jeff’s clients paying awesome dividends for the team. Curious how McDavid turns in the worst start to a season in his career when Jeff gets involved with the team.
Jeff’s first action is to fire the coach with the highest points percentage in franchise history to bring in a guy he’s been stumping for back when MacT was a GM and Paul Coffey…
Yes the dividends are similar to the interest from a savings account during peak COVID.
Just wait until Dave Ganger is GM.
Connor hates to lose and is pissed about the coaching change.
Up next is a meaningless trade for a goalie.
To be fair, these bad habits come from bad thinking and have been in the Oilers game forever. Only a hardass coach can change those and that will never happen with these snowflakes.
“Sow a thought and you reap an action; sow an act and you reap a habit; sow a habit and you reap a character; sow a character and you reap a destiny.”
I like the poetry.
Disagree on a hardass, overrated. Hockey is decades behind other sports one day it’ll come. You can be tough, doesn’t mean you’re a happy go lucky that never swears. Winningest coach in NA pro sports is Phil Jackson. Marshaled and channeled the Biggest Egos in a sport of massive Ego’s. Motivation and buy in are the secret sauces.
Thats why it was so dangerous for Jackson to pull rank and fire Woody. Listen to Ekholm’ post game today… dangerous times for all involved.
You’re witnessing a crisis of confidence. Never thought id see that from guys like McLeon but here we are. It happens, not the end of the world, just don’t break guys. Its weird when it hits the whole team though.
Hilariously they are only 7 points out, Canucks will regress hard and they have about 38 games against the West and 19 against Pacific Teams left. Can’t let this get too crazy stretched but this isn’t K2 without oxygen yet.
It is a crisis of confidence. But that seems to have been brought on by poor thinking and bad habits. And those bad habits existed when they were “winning”. I don’t know how you rewire 29, 97, 2, 25 “not to score” or “wait 5 minutes” as Ekholm put it. They must have been told by a pile of coaches about good and bad habits. Hitch is as hardass as it comes.
Its funny. Everyone wants to know why EDM usually out-shoots their opponents when they loose, even if they aren’t chasing the whole game (score effects). It’s because they ALWAYS play as if they are chasing. And that leads to chasing. They always push low percentage plays and always try to force a goal, like a teenager with a hard-on. Wait for the third base coach to wave you in.
Garlic has them being more selective with their shots and their xGF% is regressing. But they are still forcing.
His first moves were to fire Tyler Wright and bring in Parkati.
One of his moves has been “best in class.” One.
Hopefully the celebrini era will be better
Woodcroft is still under contract, right?
I don’t think they should have fired him. The team was ‘with’ him and you could tell they were all really shell shocked and pissed off when they fired him. But they made the call, and now they(management) are literally in no-mans land with no refuge, rhetoric, or play.
It is not THE problem, but my lord, simple bad luck has been A problem
It seems every glaring mistake by our Oilers, was converted by the Panthers. Crossing into the offensive zone, we really didn’t play that poorly… our problems all start as we backup across our blueline. So much fun offensively, so much pain defensively.
ya fair. Some of those plays are ‘oh come on!’ Hockey Gords just givin it to them.
Odd reference but anybody catch 1983? Oilers losing to Islanders in 4 straight? Good team, but so much bad puck luck.
there are probably more things going on in the background that people don’t know about that’s hindering this team. It’s unreal how bad they’ve gotten. Beyond all reason and science. Almost as if it were out of a fantasy world. The team had very little personnel changes from last season. Even with the terrible decision to change the D-zone system, there should be no way they are this bad.
Multiple Canucks fans must have sold their souls to crater the Oilers and have Van take their mojo.
That’s what I’m thinking. WAAAAY of base and out of line here but wasn’t there some issue many years ago about lets call it personal grievances in the dressing room. somethings wrong for sure.
“Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.” – Shakespeare’s Hamlet
Connor played well.
Did Lavoie even play?
Broberg looked ok but intimidated in my opinion. Needs more reps, way more, and encouraging him to skate. Otherwise leave him in the A.
Physically when these games happen they could use more muscle on bottom 6. If coach would play it.
Holloways energy is missed.
The power play is missed.
Oilers actually had 5 players on the perimeter at one time. How does this happen? Delayed penalty.
I thought goalie was only ok.
Foegele played hard.
Coaching has a lot of things to correct.
Lavoie was sent down yesterday
Good assessment. Goalie didn’t lose the game. But Foegele is part of the issue. He has little hockey sense and AHL hands. Can’t pay nearly 3 for that. He got a few and as I predicted would disappear
You can’t have players completely disappearing for games or stretches of games, or you can’t build momentum
Nuge is amongst the worst career wise. Great last season, SFA this year when he is needed to step up as he other guys are hurt
Foegele made a spectacular rush that led to the 2nd Ryan goal last game.
He has some points. It’s the ‘single event looking big’ thing LT mentions
It goes both ways. For me, given how things are going, they need players to show up and play 60 minutes being a part of the solution. They are losing, and many players are invisible for most of games. Quiet is looks better on the D than the F, who are supposed to generate the bulk of offensive pressure
No momentum built that sustains. Making a pretty play, getting a point, and doing nothing the rest of the time hurts almost as much as the bad plays that cause a good CA or GA, to me at least
There are only 2 players on my no trade list
Maybe one. Proof is in the pudding now
Terrible roster construction and cap management . Captain Picard with as good a goalie game as has been played this season and probably last playoffs
I’m sorry. Can someone remind me why Coffey is behind the bench – a defence coach with zero experience at any level on a team that has no idea how to play defence.
to be fair (queue Letterkenny) anyone can stand on the bench and scream in Bouchard’s ear, ‘try harder! Head on a swivel! Stop screwing around with the puck!’ and also show the d-group hours of game tape about all their dumbfounded decisions. No amount of coaching experience is going to magically turn on the switch in these player’s minds with, ‘oh ya, maybe I should stop doing that.’
I asked a hall of famer if he would ever consider coaching in the NHL. He told me no, that it’s too much work.
The job security’s no good and there’s no pension. But after your career is finished you can always make a bundle talking sh*t on podcasts.
Coffey never learned the details of the game. Honest to god it should be 22 in the rafters not 7. Coffey’s coaching because Jackson asked. Jackson asked because he needs Coffey to be somewhat out of his hair and he needs someone inside the dressing room for the upcoming roster decisions. I don’t think he can do the job more than a month tbh. It’s hard work.
Well, Mr. Knoblauch:
1.Load up McDrai ( Cheshire like grin comes across the face of Paul Maurice, murmuring something about RNH not scoring in the last 14 NHL games)
2.Give up PK goal ( check)
3.Deploy 11-7
When special teams suck, maybe staying out of the box is a start on the climb!
There is only one solution. And it involves a significant roster overhaul
Like other teams do when they need more players with more game and hockey sense
What’s Jackson going to do if they come back from the road trip winless?
Fire Knoblauch?
Worse. Trade everything for hopes and prayers.
Knoblauch hasn’t changed anything. Why did they fire Woodcroft, if they were not going to change anything?
probably did Woody/Manson a favour.
Literally, he deployed his troops – exactly – as Woody.
The call is coming from inside the house?
He did start 2 Dmen in an overtime.
This made me chuckle
Not really! -).-). Can one call Bouchard a defenseman?
i asked that exact question before the game started
If you heard a loud bang, that was the Oilers’ window to win a cup slamming shut.
Yeah. Had their best shot last year.
That’s an echo from the San Jose game.
These guys are just bad – can’t defend, can’t hold a lead, total inconsistency in the style and vigour of play, even the supposed leadership looks lost.
I don’t hear many arguments anymore that it’s bad luck or that the stats mean it will turn around.
I’d suggest management try some fancy moves but, as my late dad would say ‘you can’t get out of it with the same tools that got ya in it’
We had some good times, though – that Calgary series was satisfying… and as I age, I require less fulfilling morsels!
Losing is getting easy for this team.
Extremely weak play by Bouchard at the blue line.
Ugh.
They are all weak at the blue
Shithouse sticks are a big part of the issue, for years
whatever
They are terrible offensively and PP. Gully with the helm and the whiteboard. Still
I miss Klefbom.
And Larsson
and healthy Sekera
If Klef stayed healthy, never would have had to overpay for Nurse.
When it gets down to about 10 minutes left, I keep simultaneously wanting the Oilers to tie it back up, while also allowing enough scoreless shots on goal to have a respectable save percentage on the night. It’s a strange feeling, and I don’t like it.
That the Oilers refuse to roof the puck I can’t feel sorry for them anymore. Pads, crest, no space to shoot, snore, lose
We all watch the NHL highlights and the majority are not that
It is amazing how close the Oilers were the last two seasons and how dismal they look this year.
Oilers are cooked this year and will be in tough to rebuild on the fly.
I thought Holland would be average to above average in talent procurement. He has been dreadful. I do not think a single Holland pick has been a material contributor to the NHL club.
The NHL roster has holes and there are no reinforcements coming.
Up against the cap and no room to move. Also don’t want Holland involved in trying to reconfigure this team. Some big contracts will have to go.
That lack of keep in by Bouchard is a classic play why it’s easy to rag on him. Basic plays every D-man is expected to make.
Not on the goaler this time
I think Pickard has a shutout right now if Bouchard starts the game in the PB. If we are looking for positives, this is a big item.
Oilers rarely seem to play quite as hard as their opponents. Frustrating.
At least Foegele is handsome
What are these jokers doing on that powerplay right now?
No control.
This PP is as stale as grandma’s walking fart
Great shift but need to make this powerplay count
It won’t. Becauseoilers
Is there some way we can join Bouchard’s and Nurse’s hockey IQ and spatial awareness portions of their brains, to create 1 fully functional NHL d-man?
If this is Cpt Pics game it’s enough
This is such a Maurice game.
What’s KK got?
Helmet taken off Bennett should go off
exactly the right call
If you’re a Panthers fan
I’m for calling the penalties not game management
Should have only been Lombard for holding the stick
BS
Total perimeter play on the delayed penalty. Florida collapsed the D and held their structure.
Wasn’t there a time when if you scored on a delayed penalty, you still got the resulting power play?
I’d be tempted t start with PP2 consideirng the length of the delayed call