The Edmonton Oilers recalled Phil Kemp late yesterday afternoon. It’s his first trip to the NHL during a regular season and reward for steady work defending the house over several years. For his career (four seasons) with the Bakersfield Condors, Kemp has been suppressing offence. His even-strength goal share (102-81, 56 percent) over those four years is rock solid. The Condors are 53 percent when Kemp is off the ice during those years at even strength.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers complete 2023-24 prospects update
- Lowetide: Why NHL’s goalie trade market a strange brew for Oilers
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 2-0-0, 4 points in 2 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 20-15-1, 41 points in 36 games
THE BLUE
Edmonton’s defense is a little banged up these days and that’s news. The top-six has been extremely healthy, leading to Philip Broberg’s demotion a few weeks ago. The top-four blue are all 50 percent or better at five-on-five goal share, and the expected goal shares show the top pairing at an elite level and the whole damn bunch over 50 percent.
- Evan Bouchard (64 pct), Mattias Ekholm (63 pct)
- Darnell Nurse (53 pct), Cody Ceci (52 pct)
- Brett Kulak (58 pct), Vincent Desharnais (57 pct)
- Philip Broberg (53 pct)
That’s a fine group of numbers for this edition of the Edmonton Oilers. Let’s compare that to the 2016-17 team:
- Oscar Klefbom (50 pct), Adam Larsson (51 pct)
- Andrej Sekera (52 pct), Kris Russell (49 pct)
- Darnell Nurse (50 pct), Eric Gryba (49 pct)
- Matt Benning (52 pct)
- Brandon Davidson (46 pct)
Puck IQ tells us the top two pairings shared the heavy lifting, playing about equal amounts versus elite competition. By the way, if you ever forget who was paired, or lines, from previous seasons, the brilliant folks at dobber have a fantastic tool.
This year’s Oilers are better in expected goals, and that’s partly due to a stronger and deeper group of forwards. In 2016-17, just four regular forwards (Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, Leon Draisaitl and Jordan Eberle) finished above 50 percent in expected goals five-on-five. This season, every regular forward save Connor Brown (49 percent), James Hamblin (49 percent) and Adam Erne (47 percent) are above 50 percent.
The Oilers structure is better, the expected results are better and the personnel are able to repeat performances game after game. Part of that is skill, but experience helps.
The big difference is goaltending. In 2016-17, Cam Talbot had a .929 save percentage at five-on-five. He played 73 games, way too many, but he was money. Backups Laurent Brossoit (.930) and Jonas Gustavsson (.899) offered good and bad support.
This season, Stuart Skinner owns a .912 save percentage at five-on-five. Backups Calvin Pickard (.903) and Jack Campbell (.879) offered good to poor support but save percentages have changed over the years. The breaking news in this area: Splits for Skinner. Before November 24, his SP was .891 and it is .929 since that day.
The Oilers need some help, but credit to the players, management and the new coaching staff for getting this train rolling at an impressive speed. Edmonton is in a position that allows us to talk about the Stanley Cup. That’s no small feat.
At noon today, Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Daniel Nugent-Bowman and discuss his article on William Nylander’s contract and the impact on the upcoming Leon Draisaitl negotiations. Oilers preview, plus NFL and a review of last night’s college football championship game. Plus, much verbal on Phil Kemp. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
MacT said – teams on a losing streak should win the last game of the streak. Teams on a winning streak should lose the last game of the streak. Something like this.
What a frustrating win, lol.
Our team did not have a shot after Hamblin great chance. That was at 13:57.
Whoof! Flush & forget,
Skinner now above 0.900.
Remember when we used to console ourselves with moral victories?
I’m much happier now that we can be disconsolate with moral losses.
My theory is they not only tried the Coffee technique of wearing skates two sizes too small, they did one better and put them on the wrong feet …
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1744940963372614019?t=NUuMjBUHgQfmEeHqUDzgqA
Gotta say McDavid with maybe the best analysis of reffing and video replay I’ve seen in any professional sport from an athlete. Incredible.
“You zoom in and zoom in and zoom in and if it takes you 15 minutes to determine offside what’s the point?” sums up everything wrong with video replay in NHL, soccer, NFL, you name it.
Off the cuff too! McDavid might have a future in politics.
Didn’t catch any of the game, but saw the score. And then I saw the Oilers only had 15 shots and that was all I needed to know about how the game went against the Chicago BlackhAHLks.
But a win’s a win!
Excellent if not outstanding win over the Black Hawks.
Good teams win even when they play poorly. Oilers haven’t much had that luxury over the Decades of Darkness.
Oilers are now 18-6 under the new coaching regime.
Pro Rated = 123 points over an 82 game season.
Kulak+ for Tanev is the play as CGY only has one LHD signed for next year. They just need to drop out of legit playoff contention to move him. If acquired – I’d also like to keep Tanev at a lower price point (Kulak salary) next season if possible. Playing Kemp in MTL is sensible as it gives him a few days to work with the team. Not convinced Vinnie is signable at a salary commensurate with his skills. Someone will over-pay. If that’s the case then swapping Kulak and Vinnie for Broberg and Tanev (probably seperate deals) at the deadline makes sense.
Can you get two RD and send Ceci along as well please? Maybe the Leafs need him
Tonight’s game reminded me of a chess match where the Blackhawks started without a Queen…edmonton squandered their advantage, were far to aggressive, too casual, too risky. They could have just sat back, played an opportunistic game and traded material until the Hawks had only a pawn or two…
These Oily boys need a chess board in their dressing room.
Na I think we’ve seen enough moving pieces on the chessboard. They can’t all be Rembrandts. Hopefully they’ll make some adjustments before the next game.
You obviously don’t understand chess at a high enough level to get the analogy….
It goes further…when you have your opponent at a material disadvantage and they’re up against a ticking clock…you play rope-a-dope until the clock kills them.
The oilers made 50+ stupid pass attempts that they shouldn’t have tonight…they attempted to play a stretched out high tempo game which was the exact opposite strategy that they should have employed.
Granted, they knew they had a massive margin for error and it didn’t much matter how bad their strategy was, they were very likely to win…it felt like a pre-season game with a bit of added desperation.
I was yelling at the screen to never have that rotten useless number 18 on the ice ever again in a no goalie situation.
Only then I realised it was Hyman lol
Feels weird to be this frustrated after a win…I guess it’s true…if your an Oilers fan you can never be completely happy…bet we’ll even find something to complain about when we win Stanley this year…
Should have won MORE cups!
Skinner with a .901 save percentage on the season.
Good for him!!
They say “don’t critique a win” but, holy mackerel, that was terrible.
Flush it. Burn the tape. Never speak of it.
On to the next.
The coaching staff have their work cut out for them, now.
We’ve gotten worse each of the last three games. They need to figure out how to nip this in the bud.
Do they still do bag skates? Corner battle drills?
Can you buy Oiler insurance for fancy glasses?
Dunno. Might be covered under house insurance…lol
“It was an Act of Gord, I swear.”
How many has Hyman had called back this year? Is that stat kept anywhere?
Just noticed that Seattle is also on a 7-game winning streak. Currently tied with Oilers in points (although Oilers have 3 games in hand)
Those *9* OT losses sure kept them in relevance.
Regulation wins is really the best way to measure a team’s playoff-readiness.
Oilers are tied with LA, and ahead of Vegas and Dallas. Oilers are 4th in the West (and would be 4th in the East), which is pretty darn good. Kraken are 12th in the West. But Canucks and Jets are full value for their many wins.
Leafs have 8 wins in OT/SO and Habs have 9. Their carnival time success will not hold up in the long run.
They say at the end of the streak you win games you shouldn’t have. This could qualify as one of those.
Yikes. They sure went to sleep for this one after the 1st.
Maybe this one is so bad that it counts as a loss in their heads?
Tonight’s game smells like an ‘end of a winning streak’ victory – just
running on fumes
I was thinking the same thing throughout the third period. Could also be due to having too much time off between games, together with having very little interest in engaging physically against an AHL caliber team.
Glad I am not a Hawks fan. Imagine losing to that Oiler effort, ha!
I faintly remember an Oilers-Ducks game where the winning team had only 11 or 12 shots… can’t remember which team won though.
I think we’ll see KK make a line-up change next game. He can’t allow this effort to go unpunished and that’s the biggest and best stick he has.
Also, why dress players you only play for 5-6 minutes a night?
How does the guy who played 6:25 get four times the number of hits of the next best player? Ie Erne
I’m not sure KK has a solution for replacing Hamblin who played the least. But keep in mind, the reason he wasn’t on the ice more is because the other three lines put the game at risk for the entirety of the 60 minutes. Just another consequence of the ridiculous effort tonight.
I love Janmark, but this is a few games in a row he’s lost multiple battles. He’s the guy I’d sit.
Oilers PK was the best part of their game.
No, Skinner was. Oilers PK gave up a gazillion shots tonight. They have options other than Janmark for the PK. A coach can’t let that role affect accountability. Now, I’m okay with any of the bottom 6 coming out, but personally I’d sit Janmark.
Janmark played the second most of the forwards on the PK (2 second behind Brown) and had the “best results” in the small sample – and that’s with playing against PP1.
There is no sane world where, in my opinion, where Adam Erne (or James Hamblin) plays over Janmark –
Wow. I hope the coach doesn’t end up proving you’re living in an insane world. What a hill to pick for your rationality to die on… I couldn’t be that extreme. Let’s cross our fingers and hope for Erne then.
I mean, wanting to keep Erne in an NHL lineup can also be quite the insane world of thought.
2 points in regulation, take em, move on to Thursday!
8 wins in a row 6 of them on the road no easy task in today’s N.H.L
Ha ha have never seen so many upset posters after a win!! Actually that might have been the ugliest win I have ever seen! But two points is good….
Whoa whoa whoa. We are Oilers fans. We are upset by almost everything.
and the 8th win in a row and 16th in the last 19 games…..
Shitty teams beat elite teams multiple times through every season.
There is a reason.
That was awful.
They got a regulation win.
They’ll be better on Thursday.
Or they will be worse. They were shit last game. They were really shit tonight.
Patrick Stefan thinks the Oilers should have scored there
Nice.
Ray Ferraro thinks the Oilers should be embarrassed, that does not belong in the National Hockey League.
I must really congratulate you
Great way to celebrate the anniversary.
Even good teams put up a stinker from time to time. Good thing it was against the Hawks with Bedard.
er … without Bedard.
yes – without. My spelling is as sloppy as the Oilers play tonight.
and almost assuredly due to that.
Yuck. I need a shower and a steel brush.
Glad they didn’t play Pickard.
What an atrocious and ridiculous night. Not thinking or trying & all puck luck going to CHI… and yet they won. Can’t believe I woke up at 2:30am to watch that 🙂
On a positive note, Skinner’s sv% continues to trend up, up, up!
Can’t believe they risked a loss to the Rockford Ice Hogs. Maturity remains elusive. I had hoped this game would be the step forward. Maybe next time. Or maybe next time it costs them. We wait. Yet again.
Ice Hogs, ha! Love it. My two favourite team names ( both defunct) were the Macon Whoopie and the Vegas Ice Frogs – I would sell body parts to get their jerseys, and I’ve looked…
A while back, I almost bought this shirt: https://www.teepublic.com/t-shirt/19677013-defunct-whoopees-souther-hockey-league-1973
Well.. Uh… Stuart Skinner is one Oiler who did truly have a strong game.
Beyond that… well, it is their 8th win in a row as ugly as it was.
And now 4 points back of the Kings with even games. Oof that was ugly though.
I don’t know how Stu didn’t get a star.
Even the person picking the stars phoned it in.
And they don’t even give Skinner a star…wow.
Still think they don’t even watch the games anymore.
Just like every official tonight!
Well luckily they dont record descriptions in the win column.
Absolutely not the Oilers night. Should have been 4 – 1 though. Refereeing was poor.
A couple of extra coats of lipstick on that pig. But a win is a win!
The Hawks showed a lot of heart tonight.
This is incredible. Hyman with three goals called back hahaha.
For anyone who wants to know, this is a game that Skinner stole.
That was the ugliest win ever!!!! Nice job Stu, everyone else, shame!!!
Oilers tried pretty hard to make this game competitive.
Hyman will never score again lol.
We are the bad news bears trying to score an empty net goal! Holy that was ghastly. Thank god Skinner showed up.
what a gong show.
Unclench.
REALLY?!
THE. MOST. REDICULOUS. WIN. EVER.
I’m gonna go throw up.
That was disgusting.
Inept offensive effort tonight.
what was that pass Nurse
My theory: the Oilers did some late night team building in Chicago.
Did they all catch the stomach flu or something?
Serious question. It’s one of the only decent explanations for THIS.
yeah, there’s definitely a whole-team malaise
Hawks could have pulled the goalie for the last 10 minutes….
the rare Bouchard Ceci pairing
Boosh finally gets off for Nurse
What is with this Bouchard/Ceci pairing????
Line change.
Maybe this some kind of cruel self-imposed challenge where the team has collectively decided to try and win this game with the least amount of effort possible?
Giving Skinner some practice holding a one goal lead?
“yeah, let’s let’s get 15 shots and win’
Was everyone shooting with their wrong hand?
Skinner is doing well in trying circumstances. Very sloppy in front of him tonight. Two days off since last game and three days off before the game before that iirc. Is this a contributing factor to why we can’t sustain any rhythm in our game for past two games?
This is a dreadful game… they might still win this but… woof.
Please Skinner spare us from OT!!!!