The Edmonton Oilers played a thrilling game Wednesday night, a game filled with brilliance, mistakes and brilliant mistakes. The defensive coverage and the goaltending were a combination of chaos incorporated and nervous norvous, and you could say that about both sides now. It was a fantastic game, maybe the most fun game I’ve seen all year. Great players unable to make simple plays (clouds got in the way), and role players impersonating Jaromir Jagr.
If either club wins Stanley in 2024, not one inch of video from that game last night will see the light of day. I bet the coaches for both teams spent all night stacking and racking the mistakes on video for individual meetings, but the thrill of that game was built on mistakes. Changing even one frame would be akin to paving paradise to put up a parking lot, but that’s what coaches do. Damn them all to hell. Why can’t we have 1980’s hockey again? It was there last night.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why this Oilers-Bruins 4-player trade makes sense for both teams
- Lowetide: Oilers vs. Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Final? It’d be a fever dream
- Lowetide: Ranking 5 right-handed defenders the Oilers should target in a trade
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline notebook: Potential chips, fits — and will Edmonton acquire a goalie?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 4-3-1, 9 points in 8 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 33-18-2, 68 points in 53 games
I suggested last night’s game (and the Kings game) would be the losses for this home stand, so a Bettman could be considered a positive. In reality, the Oilers were so loose in coverage and in taking care of the puck, and in stopping the puck, I’m not sure they earned the point. On the other hand, the way the Bruins played the third period, Boston damned sure didn’t deserve two points. Bottom line: I loved every minute of that game! I just don’t think it’s the kind of game Stanley Cup champions play. If you saw last night’s OT loss as a sign of an Oilers apocalypse, I would encourage you to reconsider.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner can’t give up the Brad Marchand goal early in the third period, and he did not have his best night. On the other hand, I can honestly say he earned some credit for getting that game to overtime. That would be the assessment of Swayman at the other end. I’m a big fan of both young goalies, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them face each other in the Stanley Cup final, as early as this spring. If you’re Ken Holland, do you pull the trigger on a more experienced backup? My guess is the die is cast on the goaltending and Edmonton will enter the finals second-best in goal.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are absolute fire as Edmonton’s top pairing. The biggest improvement on this team over the last 12 months is the exceptional top pair. The Athletic ranks this duo at No. 6 across the NHL and it would be even higher if the early wobble (Ekholm hurt, Bouchard uncertain) was sliced away. I thought both men played well last night, and Bouchard made an outstanding play when racing back to suppress a possible breakaway. Head on a swivel is easier said than done, but this young man has all the neurons firing and is establishing himself as a complete defenseman. For the season, this pairing is 46-33, 58 percent in five-on-five goal share and 64 percent goal share since November 24.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci are 55 percent (36-30) at five-on-five scoring for the season, and that’s strong too. Last night was a tough one for the pairing, as Ceci had a couple of vapor-lock moments on harmful goals against the Oilers. Credit where due, he found a way to post a pair of assists on equally impactful tallies. Darnell Nurse had a solid game to my eye, slight screen on the first goal but he added an assist later. I might be the only person in the free world who is satisfied with this pairing, but in all honesty being alone on an island is kind of my sweet spot and if I saw a better option I would say it out loud. The third pairing were adequate, didn’t make themselves the story and that’s the job.
Connor McDavid widened his lead in assists, he is now five clear of Nathan MacKinnon. He is nine back of Nikita Kucherov in points, with five games in hand. Connor McDavid is inevitable. If you’re going to win a battle with 97, you better pack a lunch because it’s going to take you all day. I thought John Shannon had a good point about McDavid, one I’ve tried to express here but haven’t been able to articulate as well as Mr. Shannon. McDavid plays through the checks and the slashes and the knee-on-knee hits, he looks past them and on to the next. There was a lovely video example of it during Shannon’s monologue and I found it to be compelling.
Warren Foegele drove to the net like a demon on one goal and showed great skill on another last night. I do believe the Oilers missed the Nuge terribly (Kane wouldn’t have been out in OT with RNH available) but wonder if Foegele-McDavid-Hyman and Nuge-Draisaitl-McLeod will get a look in the coming days.
Evander Kane was ineffective in overtime, but I’m going to suggest the coaching staff miscued in the ask. Do you remember Milan Lucic out there in OT, or Patrick Maroon? These big men can be effective, and Kane’s shooting prowess gives him an extra gear, but the bigger ice of four-on-four is not his wheelhouse. I’m not blaming Kane for the OT loss or the icing (split second decisions are exactly that, and we’ll spend all day talking about Kane not skating and Nurse icing the puck but there are realities to that play. Watch it again if you can), because it didn’t look like icing for some time. I don’t mind people being critical, but let us agree the misstep was deploying Kane in overtime. I think that’s most fair.
Zach Hyman and Corey Perry (and Kane for that matter) are unique talents. Ken Holland has been collecting them, and you can see what happens when they all join together in the band. Both men scored last night, both men were involved in eventful physical moments and both men were a load for the Bruins. The Oilers spent many years being vanilla in places they needed to be spiced rum. No more. This team is prickly, and the asshats are skilled. Music!
Leon Draisaitl damn near scored on that last power play and that’s a fact. The big man needs a lift on his line and I do wonder if adding the Nuge to his trio will give him the high hat in a game like this one. When Leon struts, things get done in a quick damn hurry.
Today at noon on Sports 1440, we’ll talk about last night’s wildly entertaining game on the Lowdown. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will drop in to give us his view of the game and the big weekend back-to-back versus the Wild and the Flames. Film maker Omar Mouallem talks about his new film (here is a peek) inside the unique world of indie pro wrestling. It’s a fascinating world of moonlight Canadian wrestlers and will blow your mind. Making Kayfabe is out of sight! You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Excellent evening on the old out of town scoreboard.
12 back of Van with 6 games in hand… I like easy math.
Mark Stone has a lacerated spleen. I expect him to make a full recovery for game one of the playoffs.
Gregor says that is a longer recovery than the start of the playoffs, according to an expert he chatted with. Coukd take more than 3 months.
So, WC final-ish?
Of course he’d recover sooner if he got it removed… gotta question his commitment
Without Stone, the Vegreville Golden Knights could be the weakest of the 8 WC playoff teams. I like those odds …
Interesting RD trade target: Sean Durzi
Makes only $1.7M this year, RFA. He’s now a bona fide top-4 and per Seravalli perhaps he doesn’t want to sign in Arizona given their uncertainty.
I’m not sure what The Coyotes would want in return though as they already have draft picks ad Infinitum
I’ve been a Durzi fan since we first played against LA in the post season. He was tasked with stepping in for an injured Doughty. While he was clearly in over his head, I could see that there was a player there.
His stock and price have gone up since he was acquired for a second round pick. At 25 as an RFA, you would think Arizona would trade him to a team who wants to sign him to get maximum return for him. That won’t be us as we won’t have the cap.
While I could see how he could compliment Nurse, Durzi does not appear to fit the mold of what Holland will be looking for which is a Tanev type.
I think Dom had his contract value at $6.1m
I like the way you think, but I doubt the Oilers would agree with us.
I think you can afford him if you subtract Kulak and Ceci, and buy out Campbell. Would set our right-side D for years.
It would also mean needing to move out Kane with a year left on his deal to sign both Drai and Bouch to term.
Can be done with some cap Jiu Jitsu.
Durzi is an interesting target. I’d looked over him earlier, just assuming ARI would hold onto him rather than Dumba in an effort to build a core going forward.
He skates well. Solid at dishing the biscuit. He’s a right prick, which is a trait I’m fond of — especially on the back end. One of his biggest flaws is he’s a high risk/reward kind of player, and is prone to being exposed. See, playoffs vs. Edmonton Oilers, 23/24 (6 games, one goal, -4), and playoffs vs. Edmonton Oilers, 22/23 (7 games, 1 goal, 2 assists, -5).
Looking at his stats on PuckIQ for this year, he’s doing rather well in the desert considering the team he’s playing for.
Do I think he could replace Ceci? No.
Would he be an upgrade on Desharnais? Yes.
Not sure how we’d fit him in, especially going forward, or what he’d cost.
Durzi is very good , he would be a solid R side 3/4
Durzi all day. He has skill, skating, decent size, good defensive awareness and is a PITA. Durzi needs to be signed to a new contract, but the Oilers would have years of team control left.
This is the kind of deal you move Broberg out for.
Then trade Ceci to Ottawa for Tarasenko with 50% retained. Ottawa needs a RHD and they want “good pros”.
Ceci to Ottawa is a great off-season move. He’s from there and likely to sign another contract there, and for the Sens he’s be an upgrade on Hamonic.
It would be tantalizing to have Bouch – Durzi – Ceci as RD entering these playoffs, with Bro-Vinny available as 7-8.
if you are trading away Ceci who is replacing him in the line-up? I don’t see Bouch-Durzi-Vinny being a better line-up and I certainly don’t want to go into the playoffs with this.
And you’ve got no Broberg waiting in the wings.
I do NOT lay blame on Kane or Nurse in the OT icing. Swayman didn’t play it since he noticed both Nurse and Kane were going off on a change. If either or both started chasing the puck to beat icing. Swayman would have beaten them to the puck and passed it up to one of his teammates for a 2-on-0 breakaway. Kobayashi Maru
Ha! Sick Star Trek reference.
As soon as Swayman were to leave his crease towards the puck, icing would be waived off. Kane would then have had time to cut back to the bench.
I am starting to think the general game plan, negotiations being reasonable, is that in the off season to re-sign Foegele, and replace Kulak with Broberg, If necessary. The season after that is where it gets a little more interesting,, big tickets due will be Drai, McLeod and Bouchard, with Ceci likely gone for a cheaper alternative to try and make them all fit. Another year farther and it is McDavid, Kane and Ekholm with Ekholm and Kane possibly aging out their contract value so one or both might be gone to keep McD.
There will be blood, but it is doable if the right replacements are found when needed at levels we can handle.
They will try and resign Drai July 1 of this year and try and get that out of the way I would think 1st. Hopefully they have that agreement verbally done by the 3rd week of June then go from that
Of course. But they will not have to account for Draisatl’s new deal against the cap for one more season. I agree overpaying Foegele or any non core player is trouble, but I hope you note I qualified this by stating “negotiations being reasonable”. If he wants the moon, we go shopping.If they need a bit extra to get their 2024-25 cap spending budget compliant, I am saying they move Kulak and promote Broberg in the offseason. After all the talk that Foegele is priced out of reach, I wanted to show it is very feasible to keep him with a reasonable raise and keep the band largely together.
Can’t keep Foegele, he’ll cost too much for what he is. Has to be a kid taking his spot, Holloway or Lavoie etc. Foegele has been getting points, but he is defensively unreliable, and disappears for long stretches. Some pump his last 82 games, I note the 3 points last playoffs, and the 4 total points the previous 3, 2 with the Canes
This is a contract year, danger Will Rogers. He’s a career 12-13 goal scorer with a few more assists than goals. I don’t see him as a long term top 6 – the difference between the better players and the others is being able to do it consistently. Maybe he’s found his mojo at nearly 28, the odds aren’t on his side as I see it
I’m right there with you. Recency bias is strong with some. I like to keep in mind some sage words, “at a certain point you develop a past.”
Warren is a great story. His timely bump in performance is going to price him off the team.
There are two correct paths forward:
Comments about 82 game samples and recency bias so I went back further and provided his point totals over 2 seasons (well just short of two seasons) and now 3 seasons.
Over the prior two seasons and 2/3 of this season, Foegele is tied for 125th in points at 5 on 5 – so mid-high end second line production. He’s tied with the likes of Stone (more games played) and ahead of the likes of ROR, Buraksovsky, Sam Bennett.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have my head in the sand, I can see what the player is but truth be told, as far is accumulating points at 5 on 5 – he is legit top 6, over a long period of time, and getting better.
Its hard to produce at 5 on 5 in this league – most players one thinks of as top 6 boost their numbers on the PP – something Foegele doesn’t really get the chance to do.
Foegele at five-on-five
With Draisaitl: 10-12-22 in 432 minutes
w/o Draisaitl: 13-18-31 in 1152 minutes
All in 120 games. So, Foegele has produced at five-on-five, but he has also enjoyed a push. The key is not paying for this type of player, because they are complementary offensive wingers.
and I’m not suggesting the Oilers pay for him and have posted that they don’t have room for him, even if he re-upped at the same.
Your post suggests that he posts top 6 numbers when playing with top 6 players so that would make him a complimentary top 6 player.
I wonder what happens to Guentzel’s production away from Crosby (and Malkin)….
Yeah, I wasn’t calling you out but rather making an observation.
Oh, I’m not sure there is enough cap space to bring back Foegle in that scenario.
Current commitments will have under $13MM of cap space with 13 players committed and, in the 8-10 players to be re-signed/replaced included Foegele, Deharnais and Pickard.
There most certainly is, as long as he doesn’t want crazy money. If he and Broberg come in less than what he and Kulak currently pull, it fits. Even room to gain a bit more wiggle room to allow for a full roster perhaps – depending on how much less he and Bro pull next year vs what he and Kulak pull this year…
Taking a look at the current cap commitments for next season, I’m not sure that is the case. Lets not forget, Perry is going to cost $250K on next year’s cap as well.
Of course, what they do with Campbell is a big factor.
There is also a Deharnais re-sign and, while I don’t think he’s going to be near $3MM per like some, he’ll double his AAV.
I watched Ceci closely due to him recently attracting attention.
Boston plays fast. Ceci is not fast. He makes mistakes but generally pretty solid.
On four occasions his stick is only inches away from blocking the shot. Yet he could not get there. Those were 4 very good shots on net, one goal.
Cap and everything else considered, he is still a good defence man, but we know right now that at times he will be exposed by fast teams.
When I look at the shot shares and xGoals LT posted for D, I see the two slower guys with marginal ability and puck skills sinking their pairs against a top team. Nurse and Kulak are the better skating and passing players on their tandem. It’s not them
There have been so many looks at what is happening on D over the last few years, it really isn’t a surprise to me. Being positionally sound but getting fed in every other aspect of play isn’t really good enough for what the Oilers aspire to be, with the forwards they have
I also liked where Shannon was going with his McDavid commentary and linking it to Corey Perry.
We know Perry is a smart vet. He watches and evaluates. I do believe it was what he was seeing away from the puck on McDavid that caused him to take action with the fight.
He is a niche player and character pest. He has value to the Oilers who are better at pretty goals than mucky muck goals.
It’s obvious to me Coffey is a big factor in turning around Bouchard game from timid to 18 shot attempts. I foreseen Bouchard scoring 20 back when he was watching from the motel room the Jets employing a full court press and exposing Bear. One thing Coffey needs to relay to Bouchard is stop trying to pick the corner and just blast it through the goaltender aka Al MacInnis style. Like Bossy mentioned on numerous occasions his key to scoring was hitting the darn net.
He had one shot in the third that hit Swayman on the inner forearm, right below the glove. Swayman looked pretty stung by that. I’d say keep hammering away like MacInnis (as you say) and he’ll wear some goalies out, eventually he either scores or Hyman etc will gobble up rebound chance in front of the net.
I know some folks seem to be complaining about the 18 shot attempts, but not me. Fire away!
In 2024, Paul Coffey has turned around Bouchard and taken the timidness out of his game yet, he shouldn’t have been put in to deal with the Jets full court press 4 years ago?
The difference between Evan and Dobson was that Evan was what you see is what you have. Evan could of been playing 3rd pairing right out of the gate with the right partner for 3 years then signed long term for 7 years on fair deal. He would be a stud point producing hierarchy of the league as well defensively efficient. Holland blocked him now we get 1 more year or less if he’s traded and poof he’s gone .
What does that have to do with the ability to handle the Jets forecheck better than Bear 4 years ago?
Bouchard was a better D than Bear. We lost 3 games in OT and the other one on a empty netter. I have no doubt that the Jets sweep would not of happened with Bouchard in the line-up over Bear. Bear sldo got burned by the Blackhawks the previous year while Bouchard should of been given ice time after Caleb was injured. Tippet had his opportunity now he’s unemployed.
but 3 years later he was still timid until Coffey fixed him…..
Bouchard was not handled correctly he should of started on the 3rd pairing with a veteran to mentor him. You just can’t see that how a player is handled especially your future point machine D is vital the 1st couple of years. Bouchard is laid way back I have no doubt this worked against him with Coach Tippet and Holland. I really liked Manson he was a balls to the wall competitor where as Coffey demeanour and passive playing style resembles Bouchard. We are going to lose a homegrown Bouchard before he even peaks.
Kane and Ceci and some others had poor games last night.
Lets not forget, coach said there were others in addition to Nuge that are sick. I’m not making excuses but some of these players may not have been 100% on the energy levels.
It can’t be easy trying to skate with the flu.
In the end it was a perfectly even game. It could have gone for the home team, but it didn’t.
McLeod was terrible in OT
Foegle is now tied with Ek, Kaprizov, Boldy, Byfield and Keller for points (5 on 5) this season and actually had the most goals.
One point behind the likes of Tuch, Forsberg,Marchessault, Trochek, etc.
Time to negotiate and pay him.
No.
This teams cap structure doesn’t allow them to pay secondary players 3 million plus per year. They already have Hyman, Nuge and Kane locked up with term. They can’t afford another one.
Foegele if given the opportunity has shown he can contribute. The stats prove that.
You can pretty much prove anything if you use the right stats.
Comparing him to Kaprisov, Eck, Boldy, Keller, etc. is laughable.
I am simply providing how many points he has at 5 on 5, where he ranks in the league among forwards and the company he keeps in that regard.
I don’t even think the Oilers can afford to re-up him at the same cap hit $2.75MM and he’s earning himself offers materially over that, I would think.
The Oilers need to have young developing players step in and replace aging/expensive bets – Broberg replacing Kulak, for example. Holloway replacing Foegele is another obvious example.
Dylan has some real work to do to come close to filling the skates Foegele has this season (and over the last season’s worth of games). I think Holloway has the clear ability but his impact on the game is so all over still – he’s not gaining consistent traction like I thought he would – yet. Him being yo-yoed all over the lineup, up and down and all three forward positions isn’t helping I wouldn’t think.
DH second season 76 NHL games and the injuries etc. I see him as already a better player than Foegele, more skill and game sense. He impacts plays, just not scoring yet. One play last night he ran down the puck behind their net which most guys couldn’t have got to, disrupted the play and then picked off the puck out front. Really solid
If he can stay in the lineup he’ll improve quickly
I like Dylan Holloway as well – he has games here or there where he shows the impact he can have on the ice. His first few games coming back for example. Unfortunately, at least to my eye, his ability to provide that type of impact seems to come and go and we are now seeing it a shift here or there.
The player being described is the typical 4th line energy player – he has the potential to be so much more but isn’t impacting consistently enough – he’s not there.
We are talking about replacing a player that has been a 1st line point producer for a few seasons now. The pop should come for Holloway, but he’s not close yet.
What about:
Foegele/McDavid/Hyman
Kane/Drai/McLeod (Perry)
Holloway (or Janmark)/Nuge/Mcleod (or Perry)
i.e. Nuge to 3C?
With that said, Nuge had 3 goals in the prior 2 games (all at 5 on 5 I think).
I like this better…
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane/McLeod-Draisatl-Foegele
McLeod/Kane-Henrique-Perry
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
PK1 Nuge/Ryan
PK2 Henrique/McLeod
I’m going with hockey players actually available to the team.
Agreed and this is even the case with Ekholm not near the top of his game recently – he’s struggled to my eye but he’s so good that his struggles, combined with Bouch just being so elite with the puck, make this pairing stand out in a positive way even when not at their best.
Bouchard had 18 shot attempts last night – yes, lots blocked and he missed the net too much but EIGHTEEN!
Boston is very, very organized and there wasn’t much room for the forwards. Bouch had a fantastic game, except it was one of those games where his shot was just missing. He was HAMMERING a couple that just missed.
And there were a few good tip attempts that just weren’t bouncing right either. One of those games.
Funny how Bouchard gets a free pass.
Other Oilers get roasted for poor games.
He was excellent defensively and made some great transition passes. Yeah his shot missed the net a bunch. Saying he had a poor game is a bit much for me, although based on some of the comments from fans I overheard during the game, people can’t wait to dump on Bouch anytime there’s an error. Maybe it looked different on TV.
I was swearing at the computer screen. Bouchard’s shot completely screwed up the OT. Also, Draisaitl’s patented “office” shot was completely shut down in OT, as well as the perimeter passing of, I dare say our leader and captain.
I’ll bet Sather would figure out some way to fix this; probably rotating 2 powerplay units as equally as possible. It’s just bush league to constantly go to the same powerplay setup in a league which has recently discovered video.
Particularly with a powerplay in OT. Once the stars exhausted themselves, their replacements were over their puny heads.
Lots of good stuff like Cory Perry getting in a fight and scoring a goal. It’s not the game itself, but there are at least 2 teams(Vegas, Avs) who have proven to be able to boot Oilers from the playoffs. It’s silly, I know.
Stuart Skinner did not play well last night and hasn’t played well overall since the all-star break.
Last night’s tending, and, really, the tending since the break isn’t good enough to win a Stanley.
At the same time, the overall team defence last night, and overall since the break, isn’t enough to win a Stanley.
This was alluded to be Bruce and Dave post-game – Skinner often doesn’t have great games when the team gives up 17-20 high dangers but is often elite looking when the team gives up high dangers in the range of 13.
What do we know?
We know that the team CAN play a much tighter and structured 2-way game and we know that Stuart Skinner can sustain a high level of play when the team is playing that system.
This team CAN defend and Stuart Skinner CAN tend goal at levels that can win the Stanley Cup.
We saw it and we will see it again.
Any rejuvenated calls to use the limited assets and cap space on a goalie to challenge Skinner are folly to me.
Oilers hockey is based on the idea that the team can protect a feeble goalie – like Markinnen in the 2006 Finals.
Send 10,28,89 all to the minors.
Call up Lavoie, call up Pederson, acquire Maroon.
While I have no time for Ryan and Brown, the overrating of Lavoie and Pederson especially has to stop.
An unfinished prospect and an AHL-level player don’t have a a place on a playoff wagon.
I agree with over rating the AHL players. Though we never know for sure unless we give them a chance.
I do have time for our smart players such as Ryan, Brown, Janmark, Gagner. I just don’t have time for all of them at once.
It is a weakness and another weakness many posters identified in the off season. They are great players and people and Holland goes there much too quickly. It’s comfortable. He should have shopped harder for these roster positions in my opinion.
Why everyone down on Ryan lately. He plays his role to a tee.
The Oilers were a phenomenal Swayman save in OT away from getting two points last night.
Gee OP, you really like this narrative… OK, Boston was a phenomenal Skinner save on JVR on an OT breakaway from winning too.
Drai’s PP shot is getting so predictable, I don’t give goalies much credit for stopping it – they just have to watch the release off McD’s stick and push over. When Drai threads the needle or hits an off-speed chip (like vs Dallas) it works out. I think the Oilers PP could use a few more wrinkles and RNH back.
If only the goalies that get scored on and their coaches knew it was that easy to stop….. right?
Haha, point taken but he just isn’t potting those shots at the same rate as 2-3 yrs ago. We’re seeing lots of G’s make ‘amazing saves’ on 29. The league has adapted and with creative players 97, 18, 93 and 2 on PP 1, there should be a lot of different looks.
Evander Kane had a poor game last night. Kane is a marginal player near the defensive blueline to start with but he made a very bad play on the Pastrnak goal and then a very bad play not to negate the icing in OT (although what a terrible pass by, I believe, McLeod).
At the same time, this player is a very important secondary scorer and physical presence on this team. He has almost 20 even strength goals.
The over-reactions from much of the fan base to move him and the like are, while not surprising, well, over-reactions, to my mind.
Far from a perfect player but he scores goals, he scores goals out of nowhere and he scored important game state goals.
————–
The first mistake was why Kane was out there with McLeod instead of Foegele who (a) is faster, (b) is a better 2-way player, (c) has played ALOT with McLeod and (d) was the team’s best player.
Weird decision.
Kane is a fantastic addition to the Oilers. Ditto Corey Perry.
Yes thank you.
I am glad I’m not exposed to twitter as I think that is where most of the negativity comes from?
It would have been a great game to see live.
Nice to see Perry stepping up. Former Hart winner, wtf lol
All Oilers need is Pat Maroon to help them win another cup.
People are overlooking Perry’s weak play on the 5-4 goal.
The morning radio guys were arguing between A- and A for a game rating.
B+ tops. Love the scrap. Love the goal. Hated the multiple weak shifts where the team was hemmed in. He’s bringing value – but he’s not a superstar any longer.
I’m also disturbed that Nurse only has 14 assists with how much TOI he’s getting. Just noticed that.
I wish they could help Nurse get more points, and let Bouchard cost less by scoring less while he in turn develops his defensive game.
And because I’m in a bad mood today – How many goals has Bouchard from that point shot of his?
Memory isn’t what it should be, but last night in OT it just bounced back harmlessly over the blue line and ended up behind the Oilers goal.
Lots of verbal about coaching decisions and deployment but got a nasty bug going around the room. Who knows how these guys are feeling. Guessing some guys were struggling
Of note, the Condors’ PK has cratered without Broberg. Cratered. He is an elite PK dman at the AHL level and a player that will help the Oilers – this season.
If he would only stop getting injured all the time.
There is that.
Kid has not been durable
Frustrating game to watch but I guess we should be happy with the loser point.
This team won’t get very far in the playoffs with that kind of game. Horrible puck management (especially by the 4th line), horrible dzone coverage (capped off by a totally inept 3 on 3), and horrible goaltending (on the first 2 goals).
Evander Kane had a bad game, but I think Perry was just as much to blame on the Bruins 5th goal. It looked like a bad pass, but if Perry was skating, he picks that up in stride and it’s a zone exit with control. A lot of Oilers looked slow last night, but Perry really looked glacial on that play.
Foegele had a productive game. Don’t know if you should leave him with McDavid, but it’s an option until he cools off.
This teams biggest need is a top 6 forward. You could see they were scrambling to put together 3 decent lines in the second half of the game, and didn’t have many options in overtime, although there were better options than Kane.
The numbers show that Foegele has been producing points as a 1st liner for two seasons now – sure, he doesn’t have great finish and he scores in bunches but the numbers are what they are.
Speaking of Nuge, maybe if Boston had their top 6 Dmen we wouldn’t have been that close.
Oilers should have won that game with that PP in OT. It looked as if they just quit after not scoring on the PP and just settled for the single point.
I don’t mind Nurse and Ceci. And I’m guessing I’m gonna have to not mind them for the playoffs. Don’t see us trading a first for Tanev and that’s what’s it’s gonna cost to get him here.
we need to trash the Wild to make fleury available at the trade deadline but I’m guessing they keep him anyway
Is Tanev really any better than Ceci?
I would say most would think so.
I think a LOT defensively for sure , He does have a good 1st pass and a good shot, don’t think he goes with the puck as much as Ceci or deep into the zone as Ceci does often . But that might be a good thing as Ceci gets caught a lot when doing that. I would think that Holland won’t send a 1st to Calgary for him anyways, Not sure if anyone does? I really think we need a legite 3rd line C man quite badly. One that can win draws in key situations and drive a line better than McLeod can. Not sure who that guy is and not sure Dowd is a 3rd line. Line driver. He would be a massive upgrade on the 4th and great on the pk. They definately need more help in the bottom six than the top six and the D. But that is just my opinion
My thought on Tanev is that he’s more likely an upgrade for Vinny than Ceci, the pair would still be Nurse-Ceci. Now, is Tanev enough of an upgrade on Vinny to justify acquisition cost? That I’m hesitant to say is true. If we’re spending firsts on people I’d rather it be on a shooting winger upgrade or as part of a Campbell cap dump (non sexy option but would help massively next year).
RW for Drai and a 4C are my main wants.
Mario Ferraro is the smarter pick
Why do we want another LHD?
Does he have success playing on his off side?
Physical shot blocking D -man that can play heavy minutes and is 25 yrs old. Goodbye Kulak
He’s got good fancies, and those are definitely desirable attributes.
Personally speaking, I’d rather run Broberg and deploy the $1.88MM cap savings elsewhere.
You were asked to “show your work” when you posted this yesterday.
Would you kindly explain your position?
Exciting game last night except for another ghastly 2nd period and poor decisions by the coach in OT (deployment and not calling a TO). Great to get a point.
Both the PK and PP need to be righted. Both are harming the team.
I’m worried about Skinner. He looks off. I don’t understand the talk of him being tired. This talk started after the ASG break that was a long layoff for the Oilers. None of the players should be tired.
I wish Mr McDavid would shoot more. He has (had?) a great shot. Too much passing off is making him somewhat predictable. The better teams will clog this up come the playoffs.
I’m not so sure it’s Skinner that’s off as much as it’s the less than stellar defense played in front of him. Mike Smith sure would tune them in harshly.
If it involves any puck tracking or covering the high corners of the net, Skinner is MIA, teams scout it and know it.
As far as the TO in OT goes, if you mean after the icing, that’s not available.
I agree on Skinner. I know many including the likes of Gager (and who am i to question his opinion on NHL goaltenders have suggested fatigue) but I think this is simply the ebs and flows of developing goalies and, really, all goalies except for the 4-6 truly elite ones that are left.
Its partially a function of how the teams overall defending is right now and partially a function that all non-elite goalies have inconsistencies in their games and run hot and cold.
This was alluded to be Bruce and Dave post-game – Skinner often doesn’t have great games when the team gives up 17-20 high dangers but is often elite looking when the team gives up high dangers in the range of 13.
What do we know?
We know that the team CAN play a much tighter and structured 2-way game and we know that Stuart Skinner can sustain a high level of play when the team is playing that system.
This team CAN defend and Stuart Skinner CAN tend goal at levels that can win the Stanley Cup.
We saw it and we will see it again.
Any rejuvenated calls to use the limited assets and cap space on a goalie to challenge Skinner are folly to me.
Really it’s just ALL goalies.
Hell, Vasilevskiy is at .898 on the whole season. Shesterkins at .904. Oettinger also at .904. That’s not even focusing on their cold stretches.
Skinner was up to .910 before the break iirc, and is back down to .903 at the moment.
Completely agree there isn’t much good reason to be questioning his quality based on this recent stretch of games.
Yeah, when the PP didn’t score (and I don’t blame the PP, they got two cross-ice one-timers to Draisaitl including one in perfect position and really, that’s the play you’re hoping for so credit Swayman and the Hockey Gords), my thought was to run McLeod – Foegele for a shift before coming back with McDavid / Draisaitl. Kane seemed an unusual choice other than he’s the other main top 6 guy. Especially against Pastrnak who just about ate them alive twice in 30 seconds.
That said, when they dug themselves a hole, climbed out, and then jumped into the hole again, you knew that getting one point would be success. Oilers missed Nuge. Bruins missed Lindholm.
In all situations, the Bruins scored 6 goals on 4.04 xG and the Oilers scored 5 on 4.78 xG via Natural Stat Trick. Skinner wasn’t sharp when he needed to be even if he pulled out a few good stops as well. And the rest of the game was chaos incorporated too.
One thing I do like about this team is they never seem to be ‘out’. Down in the 3rd time and again, they keep coming back. Reminds me of some of those Oilers teams in the 90s. You just never felt like they’d go away quietly. In just about every other way today’s team is different than those teams, but in that one way, they’re similar.
I’m gonna try to reverse engineer this thing. If they could bring in another legit top-6 forward, they could run McLeod between Kane and Perry on the third line, and give all kinds of ingredients for Knobby’s blender when he inevitably fires it up.
37-97-18
93-29-Duclair/Tarasenko/???
91-71-90
13/55/89/10/28 (however you want to construct this line)
I agree with LT that the goaltending and D are set now.
Was at the game live last night, as LT says, they’ll sell you the whole seat, but you’ll only need the edge. Most fun game I’ve been at in years, although usually the Bruins are a fun draw.
A few thoughts:
(1) Skinner and Swayman were both on fire in the first period, at least live, I thought Skinner really bailed out the Oilers, who looked like they were playing a Saturday afternoon game in New Jersey. The Marchand goal was poor and maybe one other he might have stopped, but I didn’t think Skinner was the problem;
(2) Drai’s line had absolutely nada going all night long, Drai looked tired.
(3) If we have Nuge playing, we win that game. I’m not sure we can win many games having Brown, Gagner and Perry all playing. Gagner is a smart player but he just couldn’t get anywhere last night.
(4) I agree with LMHF – McDavid needs to shoot more, he had one prime chance in the slot that would have been top corner last season and he passed it up.
(5) Bouchard had a fantastic game and wow his stretch passes are a lot more visible live….except his shot was off. And then you get a couple of lobs from Ceci and Nurse that lead to goals.
(6) Really didn’t Knoblauch’s decisions in OT as described above. Both McLeod and Kane were poor.
(7) Special teams need some tinkering. PK still scrambly, and the PP seems tired, granted taking Nuge away from PP1 and putting on Kane isn’t really a solution.
Good points. What a wild game; if my GP was monitoring my blood pressure during games he’d advise me to stop watching I’m sure lol.
What galls me about last night’s game is suddenly I see Oilers getting bounced from the playoffs after running a predictable powerplay and overplaying their best players to the point that the up and comers get suddenly thrust into pressurised situations without enough chance to make any kind of difference.
Glad the return match isn’t too far ahead in the future. Hopefully Oilers win in Boston.
McDavid is the only Oiler forward in the top 10 for overall TOI/G and the Oilers most played d-man, Bouchard, is 39th.
Regarding Nuge’s absence . . .
. . . don’t it always seem to go that you don’t know what you got ’till it’s gone.
…and they had a Lowe+MacT museum, that you had to pay just to see them.
McLeod was also terrible in the OT. Couldn’t win a draw, On that icing where Kane was dead tired McLeod ices the puck where he could have used his brains and taken the puck behind the net and lets Kane and Nurse change. Also Knoblauch could have called a timeout right after the pp when he put McLeod, Nurse and Kane out, and put Drai, McD and Bouchard back out.
it was a fun game .
Skinner looks really unstable. He is really getting into bad position on a lot of goals in the last few.
Foegel had a game
on to the next one.
That was the slowest icing I’ve ever seen. McLeod chipped it up the wall at 2:24; the puck reached the icing line at 2:19, and the Bruins d-man got to the hashmarks for the whistle at 2:17. Smart play by Swayman to hold his ground;modern thinking is that possession matters more than position in overtime & goalies often play the puck on icings to maintain the former. But a great read by the netminder that the key in this scenario was gassed opponents. Too gassed to realize that even a sliggish skate up ice would force Swayman to handle the puck, and a loop to the bench would be easily done at that point.
Of the several things that went wrong in the subsequent sequence of pain, I wasn’t too impressed with Skinner’s attempted poke check on McAvoy, who appeared anything but gassed despite playing 30:10.
Yes possession is great. Maybe McLeod should have taken that puck behind the net and let Nurse and Kane both get off. Or to bad he couldn’t win a draw in Ot. Yup Skinner so needs to learn the art of the poke check. He missed on 2-3 occasions last night. 2 were goals. Nuge was missed on the pp last night and in Overtime where McLeod was thrust into that position. Also why didn’t the coach put Foegel out instead of Kane. More speed and having a great game. Or why didn’t he call a timeout after the pp and let McD, Bouchard and Drai rest for a minute and send them back out.
Lots of blame to go around in OT I guess
Two points is better than one but at 4-1 that game had no business going into OT. Credit where due, exciting game. I’m glad LT pointed out the loss of Nuge, that was clearly a game he was missed in the lineup… both Keon defensive plays and OT prowess were evident in his absence.
Since returning from the break, the team has reverted back to its natural tendencies of allowing +3 goals in a first to 3 goals league.
They still are a two-line, two pairing team without a hold my beer goalie and now a rookie coach.
My prediction.
In the third or second round of the play-offs; Connor, Leon, Kane, Ekhom, Nurse, Skinner and Ceci begin to tire and show some nagging injuries. Foegele, Holloway, McLeod and Janmark don’t pitch in enough timely goals. Then a four-line, 3 d pairing team knocks them out.
I don’t know if the Oilers can avoid scrapping the fourth line for parts. It’s very rare that a team demotes an impact player to 18 minutes a night, and that’s how many minutes McDavid will get if the fourth line plays 10 minutes per game. I think the Habs did it with Beliveau when i was a kid, but I don’t recall another example. Beliveau was old when I was a kid btw.
Hate to break it to you but there were no 4-line teams in Beliveau’s day. Rosters were restricted to 16 skaters, with most teams going 11/5. 3 lines were the norm; often the extra forwards were primarily penalty killers. Another norm? Looong shifts.
In 1971-72 — the season after Le Gros Bill retired — a 17th skater was added, giving teams the choice of a 12th forward OR a 6th d-man, with an 18th skater added in 1982-83.
I wish there were TOI stats from earlier times, that addition to the statistical realm in 1998-99 was a game changer.
I know, Bruce. However, I do recall Beliveau playing less than (say) Phil Esposito and it always seemed to me that Beliveau was more rested in games due to Montreal’s three lines (and spares, iirc they were PK men mostly). I’m pretty sure one of the weaknesses those Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks teams had compared to Montreal ad the New York Rangers came with playing the top line a ton. Maybe I’m misremembering, but that’s my recall.
I think the points you both make shows the need for a legite 3 rd line C man like a Henrique or Laughton that can pk, thus letting McLeod move to the wing either up on the 2nd or on the Left side 3rd. Pushing 1 player down to the 4th . Also be really nice to get Dowd on the 4th but I really don’t see them picking up 2 Cmen. But that would be great depth and adding 2 really good PK guys as well as some offence and depth especially on the 3rd. I think the team has enough scoring in the top 6 and they can run Foegel or Holloway or McLeod up. If needed , but pushing a few guys down with the addition of 2 Cmen like that will give the Oil a much stronger lineup.
Nuge/McD/Heiman
McLeod/Drai/Perry
Kane/ Henrique or Laughton/ Foegel
Holloway/Dowd/ Ryan
Trade Janmark, Brown. If you can for $ out Probably have to move more cash with those 2 additions , so not sure that works
But that forward group could be mixed up and would be very deep with lots of C men
I’ve put up the numbers for this year and for the last 82 games, which has Foegele producing points at 1st line level – straight point production – ahead of some forwards known to be elite.
For goals, this season, Foegele is tied for 66th in goals with the likes of Jason Robertson, Hagal, Kaprisov, Byfield, Tarasenko, Tkachuk, Hiesher, Malkin, etc.
I’m not sure how Foegele is in a category of not scoring enough timely goals – he is a first line goal scorer this season.
3 out of 4 points against the 2nd and 5th place teams. Can’t ask for much more than that.
You must be new here 😉
I’d go with infuriating more than entertaining. I don’t want to see games like that.
And as a player, everyone HATED games like that. All that effort to fumble it away multiple times.
Much more of a “beat em 9-2” kinda guy.
Serious question – why is McDavid passing up shots and taking one less step toward the net right now? Who on that squad can get in his face and tell him to score goals? It cost them last night. Wasn’t the only thing – but it was a thing.
I think the pursuit of perfection is a grand idea, but it’s also true that mistakes happen and the other guy often causes them. I loved that game, and if the players hated it, then so be it. Give me more!
Are you seeing McDavid deferring? It’s driving me a bit nuts. Where’s the ‘drive slot – roof it’ play the last while?
I am asking myself the same question. The year he scored 60, McDavid’s shot was an absolute threat. Especially on the PP from the left side he would walk in and snipe a shot top shelf. As a result, that opened up the lane across to Drai for the onetime where he has made a living. Now, Connor NEVER shoots, only looking to pass across to Drai. And he other teams are cheating for it…on the OT PP, first Swayman anticipated to make a fantastic save, then immediately after the Bruin Dman who left Connor to walk in and cheated over for the pass, intercepted it and sent VanRiemsdyk in for the breakaway.
Far be it for me to question the best offensive player of his generation, but to quote Seinfeld..”What’s the deal with..”?
Yeah. Exactly. Connor needs to fire it and fire it HIGH.
Swayman made a good save but also didn’t even have to extend his glove because the play was so telegraphed. He was already there.
Last year Boston came to town in the last week of February, same time of year though for some reason it was Game 61 for the Oilers not Game 53.
Anyway McDavid scored both EDM goals in a 3-2 loss — his 49th & 50th of the season. Currently he has 21.
Yes he’s getting tons of assists, but I’m not seeing many plays where he shoots the puck & I’m going “shoulda passed that time”. But I sure am seeing a lot of passes forced into traffic when there is a clear shooting opportunity. Not sure what is driving the decision-making process, but I suspect some sort of injury may be at play.
I believe that McDavid has been dealing with a hand/wrist/finger/arm issue for pretty much the entirety of the season and that is the reason he hasn’t been looking to shoot as much as last year nor has he been as effective with his shot.
Much of this clear speculation is garnered from his stickhandling being down a level all season long. The MUCH higher level of puck bobbling started early and, while its not as high now as it was earlier, he isn’t handling the puck nearly as well as historically, at least to my eye.
And he still managed to paste the opposition at the ASG in the puck skills competition.
A little bit of a more controlled setting that puck skills in a game and, of course, without shooting.
Fun game last night.
This team is a top-6 first person shooter (Tarasenko) and a top-4 RHD (Gudas) away from steamrolling the entire league.
In saying this, I am also one of the silent admirers of Ceci and Foegele. I just think the team would be better positioned if they were pushed down the lineup (not necessarily off).
A tall task in a capped league.
That 4th line they ran out last night will cost them in the playoffs ( if not altered with additions) when they play teams that run 4. IE Vegas.
Radko Gudas has played 12 years in the NHL with 5 different teams & never once averaged 20 minutes a night, a pretty reliable marker for Top 4. Career average 18:04. Lots to like about this player, but he has his limitations.
So too does Cody Ceci, who has played 11 years with 4 different teams, averaging 20:41. He’s been north of 20:00 ATOI for 7 of the last 8 seasons.
Were all of Gudas’s teams better? Were the collective coaches of both players’ teams somehow poor judges of talent? I’m sure I don’t know the answer, but I do think it a reach that Gudas & his $4 million cap hit would move the needle all that much.
Gudas kills it against elite competition and is often deployed with similar severity as Ceci has during his time in EDM. The difference being one of playing style, which I think would mesh better with Nurse (as well as add an ingredient that’s even more important come playoffs).
Isn’t all of Canada on Gudas’ no go list?
You would be correct:
https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/ducks-radko-gudas-rejected-offers-from-maple-leafs-oilers-because-of-media-scrutiny-151728240.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEwMlvMwIy83-McseiRN7Ev80As0aRjTUYBLgrkCJK-0Jp_S1Jzm3txS4sItzH-_VXngdTvhKF8_k2z4JwoLAIA_tyW5Qf6EZXM5gHGMDkNUwuAtG7CV41EAg-WoYTS9tHsk0QTzNjL-r9CKlFBwK_OJDlnAvvjEUwsANF0lkt9n
“Ducks’ Radko Gudas rejected offers from Maple Leafs, Oilers because of media scrutinyOne playoff series against the Maple Leafs was enough to sour the idea of ever playing for a Canadian team, Radko Gudas recently admitted.”
I like Gudas but if they are going that route would much rather have Tanev
Is Gudas or Ceci in the top four good enough to win a Stanley Cup with? That is the question. Gudas in his prime, maybe. Don’t think so now. One would require a lot of good fortune.
They are good enough during the regular season.
That said, I have not identified a target. Other than playing Broberg with Nurse, which they are not going to do, or get a more mobile imperfect (like Ceci) #4-5D on an expiring contract at the deadline to provide an option in matchups.
The option was available early in the season, and for a decent price: Jamie Drysdale.
The price paid was more valuable than the Oilers’ top prospect, like way more valuable. Cutter Gautier is arguably a top 10 prospect in the world.
I’m not sure what type of assets the Oilers would have needed to pay to match the value? 1st and Broberg and maybe another piece?
So, the opinion is that neither Gudas nor Ceci with Nurse is good enough to win a cup this season but Broberg with Nurse might be?
I don’t really agree with the 4-5D tag, but certainly do agree with ‘imperfect’.
And I actually think we’re pretty likely to see an addition like that, who’s in the same ball park as Ceci but with a bit different skill set (like Walker or Carrier).
Someone said it late last night. But I’d love to see them spread out the top 3 offensive centres. Or at least mix it up a bit for Draisatl.
Foegele. McDavid. Hyman
Kane. Draisatl. ???? Brown/Gagner (yes I know the analytics on him and Kane. But wtf. Gagner may be the best fit style and hockey IQ wise).
Nuge. McLeod. Perry
Janmark. Holloway. Ryan
McLeod is not a good C man. In that scenario put Nuge on the dot, McLeod on the wing
Nuge isn’t a strong faceoff man and is more effective on the wing. I’ve been suggesting for some time a center might be a more key acquisition.
I second the motion. They might need 2 more centers.
Oh I agree on the need for a good 3rd line C man with both those guys on the wings
Yep… Adam Henrique
To Shamus: McLeod has shown to be a solid centerman in stretches – including last year’s playoffs (where he did take on some tough matchups).
To LT: Just my opinion, but I think that sometimes faceoffs and ability to play center are equated and that is a mistake to me. Of course, faceoffs are part of being a centerman but, in the example above, if Nuge and faceoffs is the issue, another player can take a faceoff but shift over to the wing after the draw, no?
My Haiku:
The sun sets showing
Desert’s evening stars before
The rougher waters