I wrote this a few years ago when the Maple Leafs were pushing for Stanley during Auston Matthews entry deal. I think it’s fascinating that both teams felt urgency, had a veteran hand at the wheel, and still fell miles short in Matthews and McDavid’s first three seasons. The urgency is even more pronounced now, and in my opinion both teams are close. What to do at the deadline? I know people are going to yell all day about ability to finish, but for me the performance of the No. 1 last night confirms all: Edmonton needs a two-way winger, and a very good one.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How can Brad Holland and Oilers pro scouts impact trade deadline?
- New DNB: Why the Oilers shouldn’t trade Warren Foegele before the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Why this Oilers-Bruins 4-player trade makes sense for both teams
- Lowetide: Oilers vs. Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Final? It’d be a fever dream
- Lowetide: Ranking 5 right-handed defenders the Oilers should target in a trade
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline notebook: Potential chips, fits — and will Edmonton acquire a goalie?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 4-3-2, 9 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 33-19-2, 68 points in 54 games
There will be much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth today, but I think that’s ridiculous. For some Oilers fans, every day is Armageddon. I encourage you to keep your head when some around you clutch pearls and spew venom online. The Oilers can’t win the Stanley Cup tonight, chums. When it comes to Stanley, you can’t go fast enough to get there early. There are no Stanley Cup final games scheduled for tonight. I looked.
THE NUMBERS
The numbers above are a little misleading. Connor McDavid was 0-3 at five-on-five last night, 0-4 at even strength. He was 0-3 with Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm, that combination is searing this season. It’s 33-24 (58 percent) including last night. Music! It’s vitally important not to overreact. I think last night’s game is a one-off, Edmonton earned a better result and it did not come. Call it a little payback for the winning streak, when luck rolled into good old our town with a big smile, money bags in every pocket and ready to roll sevens until the cows came home.
I do think there are positives from last night.
First, the expected goals were 61 percent in Edmonton’s favour, so things are clicking overall. Second, the Oilers are 4-1 this calendar year even when the expected goals don’t favour them (the LAK loss). So, whatever this team is doing, it’s working.
Second, the special teams had a good night. Bob mentioning Derek Ryan’s deployment was astute and tells us the coaching staff is trying to figure things out and being proactive.
I also believe last night offered us an accurate view of the top-six forwards and what is needed. I don’t mind the mix and match, and certainly think McDavid and Draisaitl can be successful with any of Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Foegele, Perry and even Holloway on their wings. I think a two-way winger, like Tyler Toffoli, would be the best fit. He does bring offense and timely scoring, he has 24 goals this season and had 34 a year ago. He has a Stanley Cup ring from a decade ago, I’m sure another would be a nice bookend for him. He plays tough minutes (36 percent versus elites this season for the New Jersey Devils) and can play with high skill.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
- Kane-Draisaitl-Toffoli
- Foegele-McLeod-Perry
- Holloway-Ryan-Brown/Janmark
I think the Oilers need another defensively aware winger, one who can cash but also mind the store. I can’t see a better name than Toffoli, although Lawson Crouse is an interesting option.
NOTE
I’ll have an article up at The Athletic this weekend about the Bakersfield Condors prospects. It is not a fun read.
HNIC BOA
For me, the 1980’s rivalry between the Flames and Oilers still burns brightly, like one of those oil wells never capped and raging on through the darkness and light long after all the pickup trucks and Crown Royal is gone. The 1980’s Flames were constructed by very bright people with the singular goal of beating the Oilers. You can look it up. I hated the Flames, I use the word hate here and actually mean it. A few years ago, I was leaving Rogers and Tim Hunter (he was coaching the Moose Jaw Warriors at the time) walked by me. I recognized him, and bristled, slowing my walk. What the hell?? I said good afternoon Mr. Hunter and went on my way, but to have that reaction to a person almost 40 years later is a reflection of the emotion those long years ago. So, it’s Saturday night, and BOA. It matters, not like it did but it matters all the same.
I can still see them, the menacing Tonelli, the filthy Peplinski, the dirt mean Hunter, the actor Sheehy, the ridiculously lucky Perry Berezan. I resent the fact I can still spell his name without looking. I hated them. The whole damn bunch. I cheered lustily when Mark Messier pitchforked them and I ran around the house with glee when Esa Tikkanen daggered them in Game 7 1991. They won’t show that game, you know. Just the Theo Fleury dance in game six. Not the epic Tikkanen game. I remember it. I remember it and I glory in it. God bless you, Esa Tikkanen, wherever you are.
Holy Hannah Mr. Mitchell, you were right when you said “There will be much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth today, “
Good thing it wasn’t the Stanley Cup finals last night, right?
4-5-1 since ASG break.
0-3 in last 3.
GAs way up.
No need to be concerned.
Love this team but they definitely have a kink for making it hard on themselves.
These are the stars not showing up. Just like the beginning of the year they were so hot for the playoffs that they, in my opinion, felt let down at the prospect of an 82 game season and now, after saving their season, no longer play with any required urgency, they need to manufacture it in-game.
I have thought all season they are a team that can win the Stanley Cup and I still do … these stretches are a function of impatience. They need to be humming heading into the playoffs, and they are creating a scenario whereby they will have to be. It’s not 3-dimensional chess more like some mammal that instinctively knows when it needs to head north.
Whelp….how about them Condors?
Shoulda fired Knoblauch when he blended the lines after Vegas.
He’s clearly lost the room.
So much rookie Coaching lately. No strategy, no prep, getting walked at least two periods a game, continuing to play Connor Brown. Maybe the coaches need a bag skate not the players?
I’m not 100% serious. Seen this flop coming after Pickard sewered them last game. That sorta let down bleeds over – remember the scores after the Tampa games when Stu dropped the ball? Same here.
Am genuinely curious why Knoblauch has blended such turd lines lately though. Gotta be injuries cause if it’s not it’s just really really bad coaching.
I don’t agree with your comment that they should have fired him, but I am a bit worried about what we’ve seen from him and the team since Vegas. And the line blending was nonsensical and unnecessary.
10 in 11 games of top 6 Foegele plugging donuts.
66 games now, If Brown doesn’t retire during an intermission in the next few games I’ll feel ripped off with this story line.
Hated the lines, goalie pull at 7 mins?
Keep it simple stupid comes to mind.
Your numbers were wrong yesterday, and this was pointed out, and they remain wrong – he scored 3 goals in 2 games like 3-4 games ago.
🤣🤣🤣 So sorry forgot about a goal against the yotes.
He’s -4 and 0 points last 2 games, where’s your score goals and defend mantra?
10 of 12 games zero points
3 games ago Foegele scored 2 goals against the Bruins.
4 games ago Foegele scored 1 goal against the Yotes.
Great to see crafty Oilers, not only fooling Calgary into yet another race for the wild card spot, but the extra strategy of being in the wild card spot themselves – as seen by the fact they’re currently clinging onto 3rd place by their fingernails.
Weakish goaltending, glamorous defence, plus forwards who only really love to play river hockey on most given nights.
I’ve been avoiding this inner conflict with myself for months, and I hope I’m wrong, but despite all of my wishful thinking, this is not a team that is capable of winning Stanley. Despite the amazing strengths this team has, there are way too many holes….I love Skinner, but but IMHO, we currently don’t have consistent enough goalering to win a cup. I addition to that, we’re one Top 4 D away from having the corps we need to win Stanley. I also don’t feel like our forward depth is worthy of Stanley, I feel like we’re a 3rd line center AND a top 6 winger away from having what we need. So, IMHO, that’s 4 significant pieces we would need to address yet don’t have the cap room or trade resources to bring about 2 of those changes let along all 4.
Love listening to Coffey. You’d never guess how competitive he actually is. I’d be fired up after that game. He says they earned it. We’ll be better tomorrow.
I’ll say it now, I’ll say it tomorrow:
I’d be in the group voting “no” tryimg to fix in part by shuffling goalies. Not just yet.
There’s been a lot of very similar style goals getting scored against them since all-star break. I haven’t stared at it hard but brain telling me there’s some kind of coverage gap or responsibility change thats getting exploited.
Maybe I’m wrong. Probably wrong.
Unpopular opinion: Corey Perry is a massive drag on this team. He makes the Oilers infinitely slower. He cannot keep up with the play. Can’t play defense. Is good at fighting/agitating when the play is stopped and tipping pucks. The Oilers are short-handed when he is on the ice.
I’d say he has limited use, this is true.
But come playoffs you know MacLeod will be in the hot dog line up before you see him in front of the net, while Perry is fearless there.
I agree with this take. Great in front of net. Great in scrums. Liability in too many other areas, and actually a repeat skill set by Hyman who is in the ‘Perry spot’ on the pp. I actually do t think it was a smart signing. Hope I’m proven wrong
He’s getting paid to be an answer to a 4th line question. He’s a bit better than the worst 3rd line answer.
Not the Droid you’re looking for.
Imo
The leader to follow is Zack Hyman.
He always brings the effort. He keeps his focus on the prize (score)
He doesn’t hit to to hurt but hits to gain puck possession
He will fight if he takes a cheap shot,
He is fearless
Yet business like, he could care less about scrums.
Stays calm, doesn’t get rattled
wont quit
Excellent player, this guy brings the qualities needed for a long run.
Now where do we find a mini Hyman at the deadline?
Hyman is the Oilers MVP this season.
Actually, it is Skinner, for the 2nd season in a row. He saved last season. And he saved this season.
You and I beat the same drum that much of the defensive problems stem from the forwards, but I cannot agree that Skinner is the team MVP and that he had ‘saved the season’. He was part of the problem with a poor start and he’s been mostly poor since the ASG break. No way that is MVP.
If the Oilers could go ahead and NOT play like the Rogers brass band, yeah… that would be greaaaaaaat.
BrAss TacticsOilers don’t be that shitty team that tries to be tough after the game is lost.
Next up, LA and STL. They’re likely gonna bring the same stuff the Oilers have seen all week. Might be time to stop mailing it in and get to work
This is not an excuse but… looking back at our schedule, it doesn’t make any sense. Our games in Feb have been jam packed and same March. There were some long breaks in the middle of nowhere earlier in season. Can see Western teams in particular flagging a bit at this point of the season. Oilers have played 4 in 6 nights.
It’s a factor for sure. Roll the lines.
Foegele needs to stop swooping. Puck there if he stopped
I know the numbers are supposed to support the earlier goalie pulls but it feels like teams are both more eager to attempt and more accurate on the long shots as of the last few years. Wonder if the odds have shifted at all because of this.
Oilers are gunna lose every game this homestand aren’t they…
It wouldn’t be very Oilering if we didn’t.
Janmark is saying he’s all in
Balls out. Pick it up fellas
Janmark willing to go down swinging.
Warrior
One of Connor’s worst weeks ever?
While averaging two points per game.
and being on the ice for 9 goals against in 4 games – directly culpable on many.
Game over … time for another coaching change. Pulling the goalie with over 7 minutes left is beyond stupid.
Pulling the goalie with more than a min left, is just plain stupid.
Watch us score 2 now… SMFH.
Lol. What. Ok.
What the…seriously??
And McDavid’s hands didn’t work with a wide open net again…This is very very not good.
McDavid keeps passing up chances to shoot. What happened to him? Last year he was so much more aggressive. He used to routinely blow past defensmen and cut straight to the net on his edges for open looks.This year he seems to have lost that explosiveness.
They have a team bet saying whomever scores more under arm, on ice wraps, or 5 hole goals win
RANT-
Gretzky mostly had Kurri. Messier wasn’t an offensive player or driver til 3 or 4 years into his career. my point is Sather didn’t just put Messier up with Gretzky and Kurri. He made him work at his craft as a #2 C …. and Eventually Messier became excellent and surpassed all expectations ..
We know Drai can score on McD’s line. Ty Rattie can too.
McDavid has Hyman. he doesn’t need another scorer. That’s why RNH fits so well on that line, he is a swiss army knife.
Putting Drai up, gives him a pass. So does the coach do that to try for more offense? which we know is barely more if any, compared to rnh-mcd-hyman. So why do all coaches play Drai up?
They get lots of PP time together. To me, this team won’t win the Cup unless Drai can drive his own line. FULL STOP
Further to my point. LT has the math. Is the lift with McD and Drai together better than RNH-McD- Hyman. it may be a lttle but not much, if any.
And the when Drai is up with McD, what are the scoring per 60 rates for line 2 ?
I gurantee the math shows it craters …. FULL STOP
Drai showed as a beast for a while
Now he can’t handle being 2 C as well we’d think
It he’s an elite player he should be able to. Without needing more help than he has
For me he won’t skate anymore unless he sees a scoring chance. A non Oiler friend mentioned it. He after his high sprain mentioned doing more with less and revelling in it
They lost. He seems to be still doing it. But it’s not working
Geuntzal, that is all
McDavid doesn’t shoot from the kill zone. Again.
This is infuriating.
Mrs Sungilly says
”Come on boys you look like I’m playing “
4th line continues to be the team’s best.
Holloway driving the 4th line.
If you subtract Brown, you might actually have something.
He’s been one of the better forwards two games in a row.
You’re hilarious. The eyes say it, the box cars say it, the analytics say it…
Janmark, Holloway, Ryan, Ganger all make Brown look like the AHL player he is. Janmark is better at evens, better on the PK, scores and drops the gloves.
It’s not even an opinion now. It’s fact. The rels here are brutal.
I have never once said anything about Brown being better than anyone but Gagner – not Holloway nor Janmark.
It is 100% NOT fact that Gagner is better than Brown, not even if you feel strongly in your opinion.
No doubt that Gagner provided some energy and depth offence earlier in the year but in the Oilers last 25 games, of which Gagner has played 9 (for a reason), its not close and Gagner is an unplayable liability.
I like how you choose one stat on NST to state your opinion as fact.
Go take a look at GA/60 in the last 25 games.
——————–
Not to mention, my post spoke to the 4th line in the last two games and Brown in the last two games – he’s played two plus games at 5 on 5 and the PK – feel free to look at any numbers you want.
This is like the anti-Brad Malone haha. Keep it up OP.
Some of you guys are hilarious.
You want feisty players and can’t deal with when it boils over. That’s how that goes.
Leon should be benched for being a bitch. We get it, you take a disproportionate amount of shit in the name of parity, but it’s not junior any more.
I don’t mean to imply the team should not respond, but there’s smarter ways. It doesn’t need to be him and it doesn’t need to be in the moment. Plus they gave Leon a free chop, but he had to go for another.
Also I still love Leon.
Within the current roster for me the biggest thing that needs to happen is Nuge stepping up
He needs to take his #1 pick, his experience, his talent, and bring what he can
All hands on deck. He has more to give, he need to see himself as that
Maybe. But he does so much unsung heavy lofty. First PK. First PP. Always the guy that gets moved around on lines.. what more can we ask of him?
It’s about confidence
Three goals… the most dangerous lead in hockey.
We gots ’em right where we wants ’em.
They should retire those god awful uni’s after tonight.
100%, comment of the night. I hate this look. Also, Skinner has to start playing better.
This game is over.
Hah!
I thought there was 20 minutes left?
Have the Oilers scored three or more in the third and not allowed any this season?
many components to the game of hockey. Ultimately want balance across your roster. Goaltending, scoring , defending, etc.
When you have a team taking runs like Coleman and Kaddish, they are doing it to take top players off their game. See Draisaitl undisciplined penalty.
You want to take some of that physical play in your bottom six. That gives the other team something to worry about and saves wear and tear on top players.
im not talking about fighting, I’m talking just physical presence to go along with responsible play.
Holland signed his bottom six without this in mind. Smart players, decent players, kudos to Janmark, but they all bring similar components.
These guys should be laying the hits, let Leon and Connor focus on other elements of the game. Hyman is just a great example of playing physical yet staying focused on putting puck in the net.
Perfect
Drai could also, well, do better.
He is giving Calgary the satisfaction that their game plan works against him.
This team has an odd makeup. Certainly not a traditional Stanley contender makeup.
They’re a high risk investment.
After two: 5-2 Calgary
Edmonton is playing a very poor game tonight. It’s beyond ragged. I’m genuinely surprised. No excuses, but I don’t think the team should bag skate at midnight or send Connor Brown to Fort Wayne. Somewhere Jay Woodcroft is hopefully enjoying a movie.
I hope Calgary gets 10. Enough ís enough, this team knows how to play and win, they just don’t care enough to play that way 75% of the time. Humble the fancy Dan’s. Burn it down and bring back the structure.
Now I would put Draisatl out. Gonna take stupid penalties. You can kill them too
Bench him. Take his ice time away
Not exactly sure how Oilers get the extra? Huberdough with two free ridiculous crosschecks?!
Perry is mean
Not a bad guy, but I get why guys don’t want to fight him
1000 yard stare
Perry is sneaky dirty, but I don’t think too many guys are scared to fight him. Have you ever seen him win a fight? His fights usually end up in wrestling matches.
I could see the hesitation in that last stare down
Connor needs to be better with that shot
Needs to calm down
McDavid with an open net and misses by 10 feet?
If he’s that hurt, let the man rest.
I would not put Drai on the pp.
Reinventing the wheel are we
Ice time is earned. Pp ice time especially. Drai is playing entitled. He needs to understand he is entitled to nothing.
16,16,15,24,32,14
Draisaitl’s last 5 seasons plus this years current total of goals scored on the PP.
Leon sitting on the bench during the PP to send a message is asinine.
I’m out for a family dinner tonight. Glad I don’t have to watch the Oiler crap the bed against the Flames.
If it’s go time, and number 2 can’t get shit together, how much?
What does this post mean?
Perry / Nuge / Foegele not working at all
Draisatl should sit rest of game. Honestly. He needs to get the message that he can’t take those selfish penalties. Stop the pouting.
Selfish attitude