It’s interesting to look back on the verbal from over seven years ago. Since then, the Pittsburgh Penguins won a Stanley Cup and made the playoffs all years but last season. In those seasons, the Pennsylvanians won five playoff series and none since 2018. The crash would be more pronounced without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, along with a seemingly endless flood of brilliant college free agents over these years.
In Edmonton, things are different. The team has won four rounds of playoffs since November 2016, but have no Stanley to show for their efforts. As the two teams meet today, the Penguins are about to miss the playoffs for the second time in a row. Today’s game is more important for Edmonton, who attempt to crawl from the wreckage of two poor efforts after a brilliant one against the Boston Bruins. What to expect? The Oilers are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’ll get.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: What’s next for Edmonton Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway?
- DNB: Why the Edmonton Oilers look done adding before NHL trade deadline
- DNB: How Oilers’ trade for Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick improves forward depth
- DNB: Oilers defense secures third-period comeback and OT win vs. Bruins
- DNB: How Calvin Pickard has affirmed his spot on the Oilers
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie a tweener?
- Lowetide: What’s the ideal deployment for Edmonton Oilers’ Evander Kane?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers enter spring signing season under pressure
- DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 3-1-1, 7 points in five games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 38-21-3, 79 points in 62 games
You never want to say the Oilers are home and dry for the playoffs, so let’s say they are in a good position in the Pacific division today. The Oilers are ahead of the Los Angeles Kings by four points with a game in hand. The Vegas Golden Knights are trailing by four points as well, Edmonton holding two games in hand. A win today would mean my prediction for the road trip has been matched, and the team would be exceeding my reasonable expectations for the month. They’re good, despite the last two games.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner had a strong game and saved defensemen from a skate of shame several times versus Buffalo. The back hand goal raised eyebrows, but for me backhand shots are always tricky because their trajectory isn’t true. Since November 24, 2023, he has a .925 save percentage five-on-five and .921 (No. 5 among starters) in all game states. I’m still waiting for the entire fan base to get behind me, maybe it never happens but he’s earned it.
I didn’t like the defense at all yesterday. They all had issues from my point of view. Darnell Nurse isn’t playing well now. I know everyone’s mad at Cody Ceci, but I said before the deadline what if Nurse is the issue? Well, since they split up the Nurse-Ceci duo, the five-on-five numbers are interesting.
Kulak-Ceci duo is 3-3 goals in four games (58 minutes) despite a 43 percent expected goal share. Nurse-Desharnais are 1-3 goals in 59 minutes and hold a 47 percent expected goal share.
Leon Draisaitl had a fantastic game and I’m thankful the club put him with Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele. The three men did great work on the afternoon and were easily the class of the forward group in Buffalo.
Connor McDavid looked out of sorts, frustrated no doubt by a solid goaltending performance by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. McDavid is shooting less often this year and his percentage is also down, and that’s a problem. He is taking one less shot per 60 at five-on-five and his shooting is way off, below 10 percent in the discipline so far this year. I suspect he’s got some malady. You can expect a player to erode by late 20’s, and 27 qualifies as early late, but for me I think it’s something bothering him. Either way, you ride out the storm because there’s no other Connor McDavid on the planet. Nuge had a good game, couldn’t cash, Hyman was effective but quieter than normal.
I’m all-in on watching how the Adam Henrique line is doing. The grumpy old men trio looked good to me, both wingers having some looks and two HDSC’s each. Henrique’s stats were solid if unspectacular, I suspect the offense will come in the next few days. I’m honestly surprised how many people are unimpressed with the acquisition. Henrique is an excellent player.
CONDORS WIN
So many good stories last night around the Colorado Eagles, but the clip by goalie Ivan Prosvetov on Dylan Holloway late in the second period is a worry. Early word is that it’s nothing major but you never know. Philip Broberg had an assist and played a strong game, Tyler Tullio picked up a point for the fourth game in a row, Max Wanner was flattening Eagles like he was an Acme steamroller, Holloway had a lovely assist on one of Lane Pederson’s goals, Olivier Rodrigue was quality, Raphael Lavoie had an assist, Carter Savoie returned, Cameron Wright scored twice and the Oilers should sign him today.
That’s all nice.
He is also playing well in recent games and positively impacting the game.
At this point, what he did in earlier games means very little to my preferred lineup on Wed which definitely has him in it, coming off what I think was this best game of the year.
If your preferred lineup includes Brown you’re shackling your team.
Adam Henrique can take over PK duties.
The Oilers would be a better, faster team with Dylan Holloway playing.
I think Pickard will dress as Skinner’s back-up but, if Skinner gets hurt, say early in the 2nd round, and they are looking for a goalie that can back-stop the team for 3 series wins, it reasonably likely Jack Campbell is that guy.
Could be totally wrong but he’s a goalie that has a history of running hot (and cold) and can be elite when he’s hot and has a history of success in the NHL playoffs.
Curious … did Skinner make a save?
Connor Brown has two points in 27 games in 2024.
It’s next to impossible to be an NHL regular and be as useless as Connor Brown has been on the scoresheet.
I get the actual contract dollars are low and yea he’s just fine on a 2nd PK unit. but the opportunity cost to literally everyone in the AHL cause the Oilers have continued to play this player is real and spectacular.
What. A. Waste.
Pickard deserves and should recieve more starts while he’s in the zone. We should also start rotating our D and forwards to end the season. I’ll take a fresh group physically and mentally over burning out trying to chase down Vancouver.
Results obviously matter but process has to count.
There’s been quite a few offensive zone sequences of late my brain has registered brown being a positive part of.
Zack Hyman looks serious.
Very, very good player. Talk about a borderline bonafide NHL star. Like Ryan Smyth with a nose for the net.
With the D struggles and back to back games, do we see our new D acquisition? He moves the puck well. Is feisty if a little small. I wonder if Desharnais gets a tour of the press box for a game and they try to get Nurse going with a mobile and good puck moving partner.
Campbell has been playing well (only 1 goal on 65 shots this week) and is now within .03 of Rodrigue in SP (.915 vs .918). He’s recovered well after his horrific start. I expect him to finish top 5 in SP and make an NHL start in one or both of the last two games of the season on the road. Lots of people hate the guy, he’s not a favorite of mine, but you do have to hope he returns to being an average NHL goalie so we can trade him.