On a night when losing wasn’t an option, Connor McDavid played 28 minutes, went 1-3-4, drew a penalty, played with reckless abandon, and helped his line outscore the Vancouver Canucks 2-0. Connor McDavid is inevitable. It was one of those games Oilers fans will remember a long time.
The McDavid line (Draisaitl, Hyman) played a ton five-on-five (18:31) and were so dominant (2-0 goals, 82 percent expected goals) I don’t know if we’ll see them play apart during the rest of this series. The line accounted for nine points and the urgency 97 has displayed since the first day he stepped on Northlands ice was on full display. Draisaitl was dominant, his performance was breathtaking when you consider the circumstances. Zach Hyman remained his wildly effective self and the 9-1 HDSC were well earned. Trio had 15 offensive zone faceoffs. This line is impossible to defend.
Nuge (with Foegele and Kane) spent 9:30 together, 3-3 shots, zero goals and 86 percent expected goals. The line was 2-0 HDSC. Foegele and Kane got caught out for a GA, but Adam Henrique was the center. I have been impressed with RNH during this spring’s playoffs, he may well have to handle a heavy load from here on in. If the Glimmer Twins with Mick Taylor line continues to play together, Nuge will be challenged.
The ‘two centers’ line (Henrique and McLeod with Corey Perry) played 4:43 and at times felt like the fourth line. I thought the trio did the job (0-0 goals, 1-1 shots) and were low event in a good way. You’d like to see a goal from this line.
Derek Ryan with Dylan Holloway and Mattias Janmark (3:03) were 3-0 shots and carried play to my eye, although Ryan’s faceoffs were the most noticeable thing for me. He went 4-5 but won the ones that counted. Both wingers on this line have been net positive this spring. That’s something previous Oilers teams didn’t have (real depth on the wing) and shouldn’t be discounted.
I was going to write a long item on the defense, but our friend Woodguy delivered everything worth mentioning in this tweet:
I wrote about the possibility of tweaking the minutes here and it happened just that way. I think Kris Knoblauch, Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart have a good handle on this roster, and the fact Nurse came back with a fine effort is a good sign. Both Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm scored goals last night, they’re just so damn smart and talented. When was the last time the Oilers had a pairing this good? Pronger with anyone is probably the answer.
Evan Bouchard should have already passed into legend at your house before last night, but surely he is there today. What a huge goal.
Stuart Skinner let in one he would like back but the five-on-five SP was strong overall and he won the game. Lots of critical comments and that’s fine, he isn’t Hasek or Parent. The question I always ask is ‘can he help this team win the Stanley Cup as a starter?’ and my answer is yes. Your mileage may vary.
NEW for The Athletic: Why Oilers prospect Maxim Berezkin should be a signing priority
https://theathletic.com/5484310/2024/05/11/oilers-prospect-maxim-berezkin-signing/
LT, I’m curious if you have a theory why the Oilers roster is so overloaded with Canadians?
Currently there is only 1 non-Canadian player on the active roster that was drafted and developed by the team….the big German.
And with Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark aging out, they’ll soon lose their only American and 1 of 2 Swedes.
They do have 3 American D prospects but they are all reaching suspect territory at 25-26 years old.
Other than Broberg and Berezkin you mentioned in your article, there are virtually zero non-Canadians in the pipeline.
Someone suggested perhaps they don’t want to play in Edmonton but I looked at the Flames active roster:
Canadian 6
American 4
Swedes 4
Russians 3
Belorussian 2
Czech 1
The Flames also have 10 drafted Russian prospects in their pipeline.
Is it just happenstance or is the organization just not prioritizing international players?
I’m not LT but…
Fear of drafting Americans and finding out they don’t want to play in Canada, especially that far north
Terrible history of not doing well bringing Russians over.
History of only scouting (western) (oil kings) Canada. They’re German was drafted in Canada
Or the answer you’re looking for, every other team is better than the oilers at everything.
The Jets certainly haven’t been afraid to draft Americans even after players like Trouba wanted out.
Really; you only get completely burned when Americans go the college route like Adam Fox.
I would think the Jets would be the least desirable location but…
7 Americans
3 Finns
3 Swedes
1 Dane
1 Russian
They do have a ton of Canadians but more than few are UFA like Toffoli and Monahan who may not re-sign with them.
An intriguing question … for mid August.
Oilers beat canucks last night. What else would there be to talk about.
Hockey.
The shift in the Flames organization to draft Russian players coincides with the change in management, but also with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One has to wonder if that situation makes the NHL more appealing to Russian players and if the Flames are being strategic in looking to capitalize, especially given their failure to retain American players.
There is always a certain greater risk to drafting prospects who do not play in the CHL and only play in foreign leagues. A question to ask is if the CHL pool of internationals has dwindled since COVID and is only now starting to rebuild in the last recent years, during which time EDM has traded-away numerous picks.
Excellent questions.
Bad penalties, worse defending
Sub par goaltending
Cooking our own goose.
F-me, this team
Summarizing!
Stefan’s soupless streak ran to four games despite five SOG as Portland fell 5-1.
They now trail the series 2-0 and the Moose Javians have a very real chance at winning the WHL title on home ice.
Prospecting takes a break until Tuesday.
If Nurse returns to favor, it won’t be because he suddenly excelled at puck moving and IQ.
It will be because he goes back to what he’s good at, does it more, and does it better.
He is as exceptionally fast, strong and has a mean streak.
Nobody should be able to beat him skating. He goes back to moving his feet and he can be out of the zone for a pass or dump in.
He should be finishing every check with authority. He can be a punishing presence.
Don’t worry about fighting or scrums. Just physical presence and destroying the other forwards. They used to take notice that he was on the ice, not any more.
Coffey coaches a less contact style, more puck moving. That’s okay. But if Nurse goes back to a punishing defensive presence, skate the puck out, he will be appreciated again.
He hammered Peterson last night and I think that left a mental mark on Peterson. Nurse needs a partner with a little more finesses to help him out with the breakout passes. His partner is dragging him down currently, better things to come from nurse when he gets a partner who complements his game a little better
I agree, the only “but” is what can he do in the near future here. Broberg is way to iffy.
unless they go 11-7 and that’s not a terrible idea. With injuries and Drai on the wing, the 4th line is getting very little time.
Rod B is getting the pipe in a few days
I hope he goes to a building eastern competitor
He has them playing technically well but there is no sophistication to their 5v5 attack
I worry about this for our team. It also makes me think about that Kenny feels capped out and Lafrenniere and Kappo were out there last summer IIRC. Talk about easy big time talent increases
Kappo? Seriously? With 19 points in 61 games this year (including over a minute per game on the PP)? For over $2MM?
Of course due diligence but the idea is when a lottery pick talent is on the outs but low
Buy
I understand that premise but, at the same time, going in to this season, when he was presumably available, how were the Oilers to fit a bloated cap hit vis-a-vis performance on the roster?
I mean, I believe you were adamant they should have gone long term with Bouch and just figured out the cap (i.e. making the team worse in other spots – reality) and now adding undeforming players that have not performed to their cap hits – based on pedigree.
I know one GM said the cap isn’t a problem unless you make it one but, in reality, well, its not true.
You worry that the Edmonton Oilers don’t have a sophisticated 5×5 attack?
Read the Bruce Curlock article on Oilers Nation, “tactical review”: The last half of Game 2 was about as sophisticated a deployment of all four lines, generating massive pressure and zone time.
I don’t think they generate enough attack net front 5v5, which is why they have trouble scoring some games in playoffs
Watch some other offensive teams and see how many times they have players in front trying to deflect or make low high and seam plays, it’s more consistent
We have a hard time with collapsing D. They do tend to move more in a circular way up the wall and across to get the opponent moving so I guess they are trying. I saw some games with other teams against the Knights and Vegas couldn’t get set up in their system because of how they attacked it
I would like to see that added is all
Maybe, we need the YouTube embeds?
https://twitter.com/StonyOil/status/1789306368920609230
Another good one.
https://twitter.com/drdrai2/status/1789370968088932824/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1789370968088932824¤tTweetUser=drdrai2
Last one.
https://twitter.com/hockeystatcards/status/1789163178468753712/photo/1
I watched a good part of the game on my phone while sort of supervising my niece in the children’s play area in the mall so maybe I missed something. To me the Canucks are a really good team but the Oilers were much better and deserved to win comfortably. Maybe down the line we can’t beat Colorado but a bit early to start dumping on everyone but McD and Drai (and Holloway), well, apart from Perry.
I just read Bruce Curlock’s tactical breakdown at Oilers Nation.
Every talking head right now is concerned Edmonton can’t win with only one line: He demonstrated how all 4 lines contributed heavily with the loaded up top line’s minutes at 5v5 actually being reduced as Edmonton ramped up the zone time and pressure. He makes a very good argument that we need to get over the bottom 6 not scoring when they are limiting anything against and retaining the cycle down low with hard presses and retrievals.
If you aren’t aware Bruce Curlock at ON has write ups for each game which I find good. He was pretty impressed with their play, noticing the usual suspects
If they could find a little secondary scoring and still be tight defensively they will wallop teams. need to start finishing better, and getting some plays that lead to good shots inside. Perry is great at that, Holloway is learning fast, just need to connect
Thanks for the tip – it is an excellent article on the tactical battle. It provided completely different insights to what I have read elsewhere.
Your welcome
We of course love our Bruce, but that Bruce gets into strategic things that I love to read about
Janmark, Ryan, Holloway > McLeod and Perry 5v5
McLeod with important contributions on the PK, but continues to make the case for himself that in the playoffs he’s a 4th line player with a PK roll.
Perry needs a healthy scratch. That’s a complete waste of Orange and Blue out there to my eye.
Zadorov on playing in Edmonton:
“They have good fans. Die hard fans. Pretty much nothing else to do in that city except watch hockey.”
https://twitter.com/sportsnetmurph/status/1789360923687493807
I’ve lived here for 63 years. He’s not wrong.
In Vancouver they don’t even have hockey.
Zadorov on living in Vancouver:
“Can I afford a condo?”
Pretty sure the signing bonus on his next contract would take care of that problem.
Z be lovin’ Vancouver city over Edmonton city… Vancouver has way more diving boards to practice on.
Canucks fans putting it all on the refs today. They have built some sort of identity around flying the white flag: blaming the officials is just a cultural practice at this point. It’s their scripture.
Sulking is a west-coast thing.
6 men on the ice just before Zadorov’s goal no call
Nice. Are they whining about the goal they scored with too many men on the ice?
Yup, typical Canuck fans! One of the many great things about Oiler fans is they never complain about the refs 🙃
Every fanbase complains about the refs. The Vancouver Canucks are the only team in any sport at any level I can think of that actually committed to bronze and re-enacts ceremonially, the moment in which they most publicly blamed the refs. Next level paranoia there. Never having won anything must compound it all.
On that third goal, it looked to me like it was tipped by the guy defending. Anything to that or is that just my lying eyes?
I thought the same. If you look at the puck it appeared to change trajectory a little.
It did go up off Ceci’s stick
This is where Ceci needed to close the gap and pinch him off. Do that, no goal is scored on the play.
Can the Oilers win the cup with Skinner?
I suppose if he gets hot at the right time of course. But against Dallas or Colorado they will light him up the way he’s playing now. LA doesn’t score much and the Canucks are trying to win every game 2-1 these playoffs. But the third round as we know will be a much tougher opponent.
No, I don’t think the Oilers can win with Skinner. Playing the 5-man unit 20 minutes a game and relying on bottom quartile goaltending for 13-19 more games is just not sustainable. We have seen enough of Skinner to know he won’t deliver an Aiden Hill-type performance.
The only realistic path is this:
5-man unit continues to light it up
Special teams continue to excel (see above)
5×5 battle is sawed off
Goaltending rises to league average (currently worst of the survivors)
He needs to be .900-.910 for us to win I would think
Silovs 0.899
Andersen 0.899
Bobrovsky 0.897
Skinner 0.888
Georgiev 0.886
You’re really splitting hairs on thousandths to get him on this one.
Your data has mistakes. The Bob is .892. Georgiev is .891. All situations per NHL.com
That’s a difference of like, 1 shot?
Career playoff stats:
Silovs 0.899
Andersen 0.915
Bobrovsky 0.904
Skinner 0.885
Georgiev 0.906
The positive of having a shaky goaltender is that you tighten up even more on your defensive responsibilities. The drawback is you lose offence. Skinner seems to lose focus at times he’s taken a penalty that is beyond discussion. Anyhow we’ve seen him get in the zone for extended periods and he needs to go there ASAP.
If Foegele had backtracked on Doughty or Garland or Ceci challenged Zadorov’s shot would have NO impact on the Oilers offense, except for having to score fewer goals.
Average Joe goaltending Hill-Niemi-Osgood just off the top of my head had long stints of playing above their head. We have played 7 games and Skinner has let in a half-dozen fluky weird goals, this is bizarre This has to be fundamental the hockey gods couldn’t possibly hate Skinner over Goalies like Billy Smith or Hextall.
None of that changes the fact that Skinner is letting in too many weak goals.
My god, Ceci had zero culpability on Zadarov’s goal – he forced the attacker to shoot from, essentially the corner.
Foegele had zero culpability on the Garland goal – if any forward did, it was the forward on the other side of the rink but it was more on Ceci.
Stack 4 guys in the net and just let McDavid run around and try to score.
Teams already have all their players in the goalie box so one might as well be efficient about it.
The question I always ask is ‘can he help this team win the Stanley Cup as a starter?’ and my answer is yes. Your mileage may vary.
fair question.
My question is, “will he give up a terrible goal to lose an important game”, & my answer is always the same.
I definitely think the current Oilers can win the cup with Skinner as the starting goaltender.
Likely not if he continues to play like has the last couple of games (not terrible for most of yesterday, until a back-breaking goal).
He’s not an elite starter and, like all non-elite starters, he’s prone to running hot and cold and, right now, well, he’s not hot but, at the same time, we know the “cold streak” will end and he’ll provide solid tending for a stretch or maybe even go on a heater for a stretch.
The key is to get out of this mini-slump/uneven play, very soon.
My thoughts exactly, well said.
One thing we haven’t considered is Drais playing wing with McLeod. Would be worth a look.
McLeod has to earn that, & in no way, shape or form, has McLeod done anything to warrant that type of promotion.
Why not Drai centering a line with Nuge on the wing? RNH is getting murdered 5×5.
Maple Leafs Alumni
@LeafsAlumni
We are deeply saddened to learn of the passing of Ron Ellis.
Ron was one of only five Maple Leafs to skate in more than 1000 games for the club, while also scoring the fifth most goals in team history.
Do I upvote in thanks for the info and in honour of Ellis?
Or do I downvote the sad news?
— It is exceptional but not unprecedented for a goalie like skinner to win the cup.
— He’d be in no one’s top-15 of starters.
— But a neimi and osgoode come to mind who do win cups sometimes: mediocre goalies that were also just ok when they won the cups, on just deadly teams.
Kuemper 2 years ago.
— yeah I suppose to. Kuemper was higher rated though : didn’t the av give up a first for him. The “better goalie than his team” syndrome
— Skinner is even less remarkable IMO
Cam Ward. Bennington. Hill,
— Bennington was just lights outs: they don’t win the cup without him. Same for ward. But yeah they were both career mediocre goalies that rose to great heights.
— I mean goalies who are unexceptional during their career and cup run.
— Unless skinner changes the narrative and at same time Oil do win the cup he’s in the camp of “winning a cup with mediocre or worse goalieing”. That doesn’t happen very often.
If only – Campbell comes in, wins the Cup, and they trade him right after for a first round pick and a prospect
Tocchet was working hard to get matchups last night and KKs response was 97 29 18 14 2 and he said g’head answer. I think we will see more ice time for the bottom 6 the next two games when KK gets the last change and can dictate the matchups. Note playing with the lead will also help.
My biggest concern is the health of this team. Very 2022-esque. One-legged Drai was good enough to beat Calgary but did not have enough in the tank to beat Colorado.
Henrique, Kane, and Drai already dealing with significant injuries. No beuno.
Ryan has been playing well IMO, but I do wonder if the ramped up physicality doesn’t inspire KK to find a spot for Carrick in the next couple, or at least in the return to Vancouver
I said this yesterday and it’s obvious to anyone with eyes, but the new GM must do all he can to keep Draisaitl. These playoff performances (many while injured) are so impressive.
Did anyone else notice the Glimmer twins hug after the gwg last night? These guys want to win together and they want to win badly. I can’t help but sigh at the mistakes management has made with their surrounding cast for all these years…
yeah, it turned out to be the Sather that was missing….not the Kurri or the Coffey or the Pisani…..in a long history of bad management(since the Sather days) in a league full of examples, it will be the pinnacle of bad management if they don’t get a cup here.
Why do they ever have RNH taking key faceoffs? He’s a horrible faceoff guy. Like him plenty as a player, but man he can’t win a faceoff.
Agreed. Good player. He is not a centre. This has been clear for years.
RNH was 4 wins vs 5 losses in the F/O dot. Not exceptional, but not terrible. 45% is a little less than you’d like to see a 3rd line or 2nd line centre to be, having said that he won two critical draws.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=30242
Next game I would love to see
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman (Best line in hockey)
McLeod-Drai-Foegele (Limited minutes but had great chemistry. McLeod also provides the most cover for Drai)
Kane-Henrique-Perry
Holloway-Ryan-Brown
McLeod has no offensive chops, and Foegle aint consistent
McLeod has no business being on that line, Kane or Henrique have done more, deserve it more and more importantly, earned it more than McLeod has.
Your 3rd line would get killed against fast aggressive teams like the Canucks.
Nurse @ 5v5 via NST:
GF = 0
GA = 1
xGF% = 26.37
Mostly playing against the Canucks 3rd line.
Thanks for this. I keep reading Nurse had a strong game and I’m grunting like Tim Allen in Home Improvement. The surprise grunt 🙂 He was quite poor moving the puck, pressure or no pressure. As I’ve said, I’m a fan of his and certainly he can do better.
I wonder if telling him to tone down the puck rushing has been counterproductive, in the sense that his outlet passing game was never all that strong.
It’s really too bad they didn’t find out more about Broberg, because you can only elevate the Kulak pair so much with how Vinny handles the puck.
I’d love to see him traded to somewhere he’d be appreciated
The Canucks ‘3rd line’ has become their 2nd line in the playoffs (by TOI) since Mikheyev-Pettersson-Hoglander have been so useless (all 20-25% GF this playoffs and with a total of 2 secondary assists between the 3 of them at 5v5).
The Canucks ‘3rd line’ has been the far more difficult matchup than their ‘2nd line’, to this point at least.
It’s a good point but Nurse still has to make better plays to trigger some good zone entries and offensive possession time. There were entire shifts wasted by his poor puck handling.
I think he is capable of being much better. Maybe he needs to skate it out himself more.
Him being 3LD last night ought to be a wake up call. Had Broberg gotten decent time this season Nurse would be at risk for a healthy scratch IMO.
They are a great ‘3rd line’ no doubt.
Big picture for the playoffs – Nurse is 4GF 8GA at 5v5 with a 35.29 xGF%.
There is a reason Nurse’s TOI was faded. The coaches did not see him good.
I would fade Perry and Foegele. They have been invisible.
Give Holloway a bump.
I am skeptical about Broberg’s effectiveness on the right side but I would play him over Des next game. Oilers need more D that can make an effin outlet pass under pressure.
Perry was completely invisible and is so slow at this point that he’s damn lucky he didn’t take a penalty last night. Completely agree, fade the man.
I thought Foegele was okay, he made a really nice pass to Kane coming off the bench and had that nice toe drag for a very solid shot on net, granted outside the high danger area.
Perry definitely needs to sit. I’d rather see the speed of Brown.
Perhaps Stetcher or Broberg over Vinny.
Desharnais and Kulak are playing harder minutes than Ceci & Nurse, Vinny isn’t the problem on D.
Ceci is the weak link in the current six. Not Desharnais.
as is Nurse
Vinny not being able to supplant Ceci is most definitely a problem if Ceci is as bad as you make him out to be.
Troy Stecher is an RHD. I can see him going in for Ceci. Broberg is an LHD, can’t see him going in for Ekholm, Nurse or Kulak.
Because Bro didn’t get the reps this season I think the only way you work him in, initially, is as part of a seven D rotation. Throwing him out cold he could get eaten alive.
I wish we’d see more from Perry too but then keep thinking of all the hard physical hits he’s taken the last few weeks. As for Foegele, to me he seems to have got out his yips now and is starting to play a little better.
If I told you Kris Knoblauch and his line blender are responsible for creating the need of the super line what would you say?
If I told you Kris Knoblauch’s line blender after Game 2 against L.A. nuked the offense of every line since save for the 3rd line in Game 3 against L.A. what would you say?
If I pointed out the lost board battles of Foegele and Kane and then two turnovers by McLeod led to series of pain for Nurse/Ceci what would you say?
If I take LTs posts about the stunning lack of offense from lines 2, 3 and 4 since Game 3 against L.A. and overlaid the TOI with Nurse/Ceci what would the correlations look like?
Should we separate McLeod’s one and only HDCF event from Nurse/Ceci’s numbers when they are each others most common linemates? Should we separate Evander Kane getting owned since he was moved up to the 2nd line from Nurse/Ceci?
What if I told you Kris Knoblauch has abandoned what got him here and he’s now playing a very dangerous game? One that Jared Bednar has been trying to avoid all season?
Kane xGF% by game
55
50.7
39.9
15.9
37.3
24.4
58.3 (literally all 3rd period)
McLeod
54.7
57.6
59.5
46.3
47
57.2
43.8
Perry
52.7
36
70.3
57.7
74.8
37
13
Henrique
73.8
82.2
75.5
32.5
19
2.9
Since Kris Knoblauch decided to reward Kane and blend the 2nd line its been an absolute disaster for everyone at 5v5. The offensive generation stats, HDCF, SF, SCF for the McLeod line have dropped by 55% since Game 2 L.A., meanwhile the 2nd line stats, despite a shift away from taking on the Heavies since Game 3 L.A. have been severely under water. Kane’s own offensive generation stats have dropped by >40% and his defensive stats against had doubled. Holloway when moved up in games 3-4, ran 5.7 and 9.7 xGF. The 2nd line outscored its mistakes in Game 3 in a route but all the digits point to Kane being over his head on that line and against that level of Comp.
If you want to see Nurse/Ceci’s numbers improve, maybe don’t sandbag them with lines that don’t work? Maybe don’t put Evander Kane in positions to fail? Maybe create a line that can feast on a lesser matchup regardless of what number you want to assign to that line?
The Coach is part of the problem here folks. Something got into his head after Game 2 and his line blending has now meant the team is relying on the PP more than Woodcroft last year.
Perhaps last night snaps everyone out of the Funk. I’m open to that. Offensively they tossed more at the net in the 3rd last night than they threw in Games 4, 5 and 1. So I’m open to a change in tune from a fine performance. But Kane hasn’t been a 2nd line player since late November.
https://puckiq.com/players/8475169?player=8475169&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team
Henrique might be too hurt to take on the role of 2LW and/or 3C. That could be the cause of and solution to all these problems. But the absolute collapse of 5v5 play happened after the Frappe in Game 2.
Great analysis. The 5v5 play has fallen off a cliff since the blending.
We all saw the top line get hemmed in their own zone last night when they had the misfortune of playing with Nurse/Ceci. Ring arounds, lazy turnovers, soft no pressure coverage, comical decision making is cratering the Nurse/Ceci pairing.
Kane isn’t telling Mcleod to fly by every sortie and avoid physical contact like it’s the plague.
Kane isn’t telling Foegele to stand still unless he’s 15ft from the net trying to superman it.
Kane isn’t unplugging the power to Perry’s mobility scooter.
Drai and McDavid played a total of 43 seconds with Nurse/Ceci – one total (non-high danger) shot attempt.
Lots written here, but probably worth noting that there has not been an ‘absolute collapse of 5v5 play’ in the big picture.
The Oilers were outscored 6-9 at 5v5 in games 1 and 2 and have outscored their opposition 11-8 at 5v5 since.
Their 5v5 SF% did go from 50% (games 1+2) to 47% (since), but still not ‘collapse’ territory.
The Oilers also spent more time trailing in games 1+2 (43% of TOI leading) than they have since (56% of TOI leading) which would also sway the fancies in favor of games 1+2.
Yes in the big picture 5v5 play is not good enough as measured by goals (expected goals are worse, btw).
EDM 5v5 GF60 2.92, GA60 2.92, 50 GF%. This ranks us 7th, 8th or 9th by GF% in these playoffs and ties us with CAR and LAK. LAK is out. CAR will be out soon.
Quite a drop-off from the 56% of the regular season. Ranks EDM below the Leafs in 5v5 GF% this playoffs.
So yeah, it’s a problem. And relative to the regular season it’s a collapse, but somewhat predictable when you look at EDM’s performance against the top-8 teams in the league in the regular season.
Everyone can wear the blame for unsteady performance for sure. But every coach has had trouble trying to find lines with this group, or any version. Only Connor is able to drag players up, except Brown who sinks them all it seems
There is only one person responsible for not providing the right horses to run, or seeing the more than obvious problems, or having the ability to fix it. It boggles the mind really
If the GM choice isn’t inspired I will have trouble wanting to watch. Connor is fabulous, a treat to watch, but watching his frustration when it comes out is painful. I like watching happy inspired Connor. Some may enjoy watching teams punch below their weight largely because of inadequate management, but I find it frustrating
Maybe it’s the cumulation of a couple of decades doing it. I guess I’d be a crappy Leafs fan
Kane has been the best of the four players listed in terms of offence, and it’s not even close. He’s more than twice as productive as the others.
Individuals 5v5
Kane 105 Min
38 iCF, 19 S, 2 G,1A, 3 P, 26 Hits
20 iCF60, 10 S60, 1.14 G60, 0.57 A60, 1.71 P60, 14.8 Hits60
McLeod 85 Min
11 iCF, 4 S, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P, 6 hits
7.68iCF60, 2.7 S60, 0 G60, 0 A60, 0 P60, 4.19 hits60
Henrique 81 Min
4 iCF, 3 S, 1 G, 1 A, 2 P, 20 hits
2.94 iCF60, 2.21 S60, 0.74 G60, 0.74 A60, 1.47 P60, 14.71 hits60
Perry 78 Min
11 iCF, 4 S, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P, 11 hits
8.48 iCF60, 3.08 S60, 0 G60, 0 A60, 0 P60, 8.48 hits60
The weather was so nice we ended up making a last minute decision to head out camping down near cow country and couldn’t watch the game.
What’s the consensus on it? Gutsy victory? Bouchard everything we dreamed of and more when we drafted him? Draisaitl doing his usual hurt-2nd-round-goes-nuclear-anyway dance? McDavid pure will?
It was a much better game. The Oilers are not playing their best, and the recipe for victory last night felt eerily too much like the 2023 playoffs. But the problems don’t look insurmountable. The better your opponent is, the easier it is to see your flaws, I suppose. The Oilers know what they have to work on.
I’ve had an anxiety-induced band of tension across my chest since the end of Game 1 until the winning goal in OT last night.
I’m not sure how much more I can take; the Oilers need to win a laugher to ease the angst.
Lafferty rang one off the post after the goal from the same bad angle Zadorov scored on. L.A also rang one off the post and tried multiple times the shit sandwich shot from a terrible angle. This is a flaw in Skinners technique and the Kanucks know it.
I see you getting down voted, but it also seemed to me that Vancouver tried this shot a lot. Maybe they were just getting pushed to the outside, but it seemed like they would try it when there were other options available (hold it at the end boards, cycle it, hit the trailer on the rush). I haven’t looked too closely at this, but does Skinner tend to cheat off the post or go down early in these situations and that’s what’s been scouted?
I think when he’s nervous which seems to happen in the playoffs his loses his position in net quite a bit. So is he’s playing deep and wandering off the post there’s lots to shoot at
I don’t recall him getting beat that often from there, but probably enough that there should be some revision on when this technique is to be used. Lundqvist was ranting on TNT about the RVH being overused, saying that this case it’s not necessary (since it’s primary purpose is for wrap arounds. I think big goalies like Skinner use it here because they can shrug shots away with their upper body/shoulder, but like someone mentioned here it was tipped.
If the glimmer twins are staying together, expect so, the other three lines need more balance of size, speed, defensive acumen, and puck handling. How about:
Nuge-Kane-Holloway (he’s earned it and brings speed)
McLeod-Perry-Fogele (there is evidence of chemistry from regular season)
Ryan-Janmark-Brown
Leave Henrique in the trainers room until he is 100%
Having Perry on a line with two skaters helps balance-out what Perry brings.
There’s no reason not to split them up.
Knoblauch said as much last night.
Is McDavid providing cover for Drai, or the opposite?
I’m a Nurse fan but I didn’t see him having a strong game. Really quite a bit of wobble moving the puck. He had one sequence that was particularly poor, blown outlet, gets the puck back again, passes it into someone’s skates, also a lot of icing when there was time to make a play.
He certainly did some good things defensively on the side board separating pucks, but for me you have to do both things, separating and transporting.
There are some defensemen where it’s as if they can handle an infinite load. No matter how hairy the game gets, they can handle it. Chris Pronger was the archetype. Nurse seems to wilt under too much chaos, and does better when he’s not called on to do too much. Not certain if the Oilers can shelter him appropriately in this series as Vancouver is quite deep.
@JonathanWillis
Here’s an interesting stat that will get lost in everything else last night: in 12:31 head-to-head 5v5 with beast-mode Connor McDavid & while being Target #1 for Edmonton’s hitters, Quinn Hughes held his own. Shots were 4-3 VAN, attempts were 12-11.
Just a magnificent player.
And now Knoblauch can play 97 away from 43… could likely see both Dy’s goalies next game.
I’m sure he will try but Hughes plays almost half the game so not easy to accomplish.
Nurse could easily play 30 minutes a night. No problem with quantity, it’s quality
That was literally their point.
it still burns that a 9M Dman needs sheltering.
Not sure what Van is saying, but if Cole was on the Oilers he would have been torched after 2 games. Culpable on 2 goals in game 1 and the most beautiful tip in game 2.
Lots of chatter after the game that Cole needs to sit.
A major weakness.
I had quite a hearty laugh when I realized that BEAUTIFUL tip came off a Canucks stick. What a strange game that was
You’d probably have to go back to Sather’s days to find an Oilers organization with a coach who actually shows some creativity, working with a roster that has enough depth to let the coach be creative.
I guess I should clarify that this team currently has this situation. Really enjoying Knobby’s work.
I was very happy to see them try something not completely obvious or just rolling the same things out that didn’t work. I also really like that if a guy is feeling it they use him more, and vice versa. I think it builds the group, they would appreciate the bump and understand less TOI. Makes them work harder and be more focused
To my eye Nurse did not look good but I missed the third period and overtime. I was really happy to see Ek’s icetime increase over Nurse’s. Huge move that should have happened in last years playoff.
Nurse is the new Phaneuf imo. Overpaid and over rated. By this time in his career his deficiencies with his passing and decion making should be much better. On a few occaions last night his missed passing caused icings which bogged us down in our D zone, and led to many chances against due to losing the defensive zone faceoff’s.
At this point I would rather see Kulak’s time increased and have Nurse as the third pairing left D. Just my crazy opinion.
As for Boosh.. A true number one D in the making !!
Neon Dion is a great comparison for Nurse. Maybe we can trade Nurse to Toronto too … for Marner. If the Oilers don’t win the Cup this season, I would not be surprised if Nurse was run out of town, regardless of his NMC.
The only players on the roster that have room to grow aren’t 29. Or 27. They all want to get better, talk about it, and try to get better, and that’s good, but we know what really happens after players are in the league 4-5 years – done developing they are who they are
Nurse is a decent player and has his strengths. However for me this is all about McDavid. When fortune smiles and you are gifted an all time top 5 player (so far) you build the team around him and what he needs to dominate like he can. Anything else makes absolutely no sense and is a fool’s errand
You can’t pay 2nd pair D 9.25M. The biggest drag on this roster are 3 of the D, and they should be upgraded. They’ll get over it
And I don’t want Marner. They need forwards with size and speed that have talent and non stop motors. If they aren’t that they have to be very driven players like Trochek. They should trade Nurse for a young high end D. I would target a RD, keep Kulak, and find an Ekholm like partner for Bro. I admire Vinny, but he is a far better fit for Vegas or Philly and the way they want to play
Many don’t like this kind of thing, but would also be amazed at what a difference it would make to the team. Players that don’t think the game well, have trouble with skating and/or passing should not be on Connor McDavid’s team
Curious which team you think might want Nurse without major salary retention?
I am pretty sure Toronto would trade Marner for Nurse.
It would be a huge mistake for the Oilers to trade Nurse.
I haven’t done a detailed look (because Nurse has an NMC, and I wouldn’t trade him), but I am pretty sure there are probably five or six teams that would trade for Nurse and his contract.
I doubt Toronto would what with Morgan Rielly at 1LD at $7.5M until 2030.
Nurse at $9.25M is too expensive for a 2LD.
Much more likely they try and trade Marner for a couple of younger pieces.
The Marner thing was said a bit “tongue in cheek”. Toronto media are trying to run him out of town currently. Now that Keefe has been fired and Shanny appears safe, they seem to need another sacrificial lamb.
Toronto fans aren’t going to mollified with magic beans … they’ll want a “big name” player coming back to “change the culture of the team”. Nurse may be exactly what they think they’re looking for.
There’s a decent chance Nurse would waive his NMC to go to Toronto, as he’s from that area, they have the superstar players, and they have lots of openings on defence. Nurse would do well there with respect to supplementing his salary with endorsement money. Toronto fans would welcome him with the same fervour that they did Phaneuf years ago … it won’t end well of course, but that’s not our problem.
If a Nurse for Marner swap did go down, I wouldn’t keep Marner – too expensive. I’d flip him to a third team for 2 or 3 pieces, including a RHD to pair with Broberg. There are a lot of teams that would play a high value on Marner’s regular season scoring ability.
in a heartbeat; he’s doa here
I think Oiler fans think most of our players can’t be traded. We see all kinds of contracts move, just not by our GMs very often. Or without always paying extra. It’s not anything except a lack of negotiating intent or skill
There are always GMs interested in big tough players that play at the top of the roster. Some GM who thinks his team is too soft. Nurse is youngish, can skate. Some may not even notice his mistakes if they aren’t into stats, but even then his aren’t bad
Prospectolus!
James Stefan’s playoffs began with a bang, putting up 5+3 in their first-round sweep of Victoria. He has slowed since, registering 2+5 in 12 GP and going pointless his last three.
Redemption could be his when the puck drops at 8 p.m. Rimbey time.
I’m still a believer in Skinner. He’s had rough patches and games and he always bounces back. Usually his streaks of excellent play are notably longer than the rough patches. That zadorov goal was a bad goal. But as Henrik Lundqvist pointed out, that’s a problem with how goalies are coached right now. Not a problem unique to Skinner. Wyatt Johnston exploited that same goalie technique (reverse vh) by Logan Thompson.
The Oiler have the best 5 man offensive unit in the NHL.
It’s so good, they don’t need to suppress anything coming over the boards from the opposite bench.
Let’s just hope the rest of the Parliament Funkadelic crew can keep up with George & Bootsy
https://youtu.be/gjKFCYzqq-A?si=sOLfb6PLsaell-0F
Big win last night. Top five unit was amazing. Lots of comments about the team having the same issues as last year and it’s hard to argue that. After losing to Vegas last year I had goaltending and a Ceci upgrade as my top priorities and here we are. I don’t want to beat up Skinner anymore but he looks like the pressure is getting to him. KK said before the playoffs that they will probably need both goaltenders I wonder if Skinner needs a mental break? I think the Oilers beat the Canucks but if the rest of the roster doesn’t step up the Oilers won’t go much farther.
A few people keep saying Skinner needs a break. Are you ignoring the 6 days he had off without a game?
Really, really good 3rd period. Shots were 15-13 VAN at the start and by the end were 28-17 Oilers and it seemed that so many (#?) were HDSC for the Oil.
Corrected my fandom errors from Wednesday. Had on my Oiler hat, jersey and McDavid socks. So that must be why they won, not because 97 and 29 are just amazing!
Sticking with Oilers in 5 until I can’t (remember Flames series 2022).
GOG
Well to be fair the Oilers were blasting the end boards with their shots for first two periods
First period felt like the oilers could have come out with a lead, although it was close. Second period reminded me of how the oilers can really fall apart if they other coach exploits their matchups. Third period, it felt like oilers should have been ahead by 2-3. That was quite the display of dominance.
Personally, I think that once they get to home ice they can sort out the matchups, get 97 some clean air, and move towards closing this out in 6
The Oilers might be able to get past Vancouver, but they will need a lot more from the bottom 15 of the roster if they are going to challenge for a cup.
In goal- Skinner has to be better. That 3rd goal just can’t go in. It wasn’t a perfect shot. Skinner was 6 inches off his post. The Oilers don’t have a better option because Campbell is making 5 million, so it’s all on Skinner.
Defense- Nurse is untradeable, so you have to find a puck mover to pair with him. I thought Nurse played his best hockey with rookie Ethan Bear. Nurse would actually defer to Bear on breakouts. They need someone with poise and the ability to make a first pass. Right now, that’s not Ceci or Desjardins, who have been the Oilers poorest dmen in the first 2 games.
Forwards- I hope these playoffs have put to rest any thoughts of extending Perry, Henrique or Foegele. They are non factors, and 2 of them just can’t play at the pace needed this time of year. A 1st round pick is looking like a clear overpay for Henrique. People bitch about McLeods offense, but he is clearly cheating for defense and covering for his wingers.
The Oilers should also be looking to trade Kane as soon as his NTC relaxes. This team needs to get younger and faster up front.
After the five 5 million dollar forwards, the only guys I would bring back next year are McLeod, Holloway, Janmark and Ryan.
This post is so oiler fan!
Oilers are in the second round of the playoffs. And the focus is all negative.
Why i say it is so oiler fan… is because i am guilty too. Instead of enjoying the ride we fixate on all the problems.
Lowetide says it regularly to enjoy it. Thats probably what we should try and do instead of what we have thats wrong or needs to change asap.
Im not saying youre wrong on any points. I just hope that focusing on these things is how you enjoy the ride is all!
I consider myself more of an observer than a fan. I follow the Oilers because of their high end skills, not because of any allegiance to the team.
I’m also very interested in the whole roster and team building process. I like to follow teams that have bottomed out and are starting to improve with young talent. Some of these teams make it all the way to the top of the mountain, and some of them never quite make the last few steps.
I’m still not sure where Edmonton will get to, but I can say there have been a number of missteps, and that may limit how high they can climb.
enjoying the ride, but worrying about the bottom 15
You do you, but the only thing that matters wrt the Oilers right now is winning Sunday’s game!
Everyone hates Kane until he goes mad mean scoring power forward supernova and takes over a game. He will be needed to intimidate and make space against Dallas.
But there aren’t any thug teams left playing. Only a Tkachuk but he likes fighting killers like Panarin. Kane will need to play good hockey to help, and that seems to be a problem right now, poor decision making
The Laviollette Rangers, the Oilers likely opponent in the finals, are a thug team.
Dallas has Benn, who when he is in the mood will wreck things like Getzlaf did.
I guess Trouba is a thug
Josh Manson is no shrinking violet either.
They’re all thug teams when they’re playing McDavid.
Every.
Single.
One.
Can you tell me when Kane is going to become a factor?
Because other than the odd game he hasn’t done anything since December 1. How long should the Oilers wait for him to make a difference?
Kane…by eye…has slowed considerably.
The cliff seems to be at his heels.
Kane has a sports hernia. keep up.
Kane was impactful against LA. He has shown up for the playoffs.
He has had heavy hits against the Canucks, including Hughes.
That’s how I see it as well mostly
I am also with you in that I want to enjoy the games now, and do, but thinking about how to get better is just a natural response for me in watching some players that should have been dealt with last summer continue to fumble the ball. It is jeopardizing this run. May not stop them, but it sure makes it a more nervous time
Enjoying now and thinking about the future are possible at the same time
The Oilers would not have beaten LA without Kane. He has been fine in the playoffs.
Agreed. And he has a significant injury.
Bingo. Mark my words, Kane will take over a game in this series.
I was watching Nurse intently last night, thinking on what he could do to
improve his game.
Unexpectedly, a round of dog humping broke out in front of the TV. It was very distracting.
In my best NHL Linseman voice I yelled “hey, break it up!” “Break it up!”
But the intensity only picked up.
Little dog is a she and more dominant, going like a sport bike at high rpm. Big dog is a he, stands there with eyes wide open and a WTF look on his face.
I had no choice but to get up and stop their little version of what happens to McDavid the entire game.
One went out the back door and one went into the garage. By the time I got that sorted I missed the dual penalties and 4on4 goals.
Dam
The Oilers won a very important game last night. Hopefully this is the monkey off their back and they turn up the pressure on the Canucks.
Knobby will really have to look closely at how he builds up a third line now.
Drai will continue on the wing, so second line is critical, third as well, fourth line is irrelevant except penalty kill.
Holloway, McLeod, and Janmark.
Ryan, and some combination of the leftovers, Henrique, Perry, Brown, Carrick for the 4th line.
I would suggest it wasn’t just the line but the 5-man until with Bouch and Ekholm – the until played like 19 minutes together and were in the 35-8 shot attempt range.
I’m not sure if Bouchard or Hyman is the best value contract in the league – I’m actually leaning towards Bouchard who is a top 10 d-man in the NHL and will likely be top 5 during his prime/peak years.
Draisaitl has the best value contract imo
Fair argument there, for sure.
He’s a top 5 forward who elevates in the playoffs.
I would suggest Bouchard is a top 10 d-man elevating in the playoffs to play like a top 5 d-man.
$8.5MM for Drai is stunning but so is $3.9MM for Bouch.
I worry about Skinner; not sure if he needs a rest
He just had a week off.
Ya, no doubt – this isn’t about rest its about a slum.
A player having a bad game or stretch of games does not necessarily mean he’s injured or tired, pretty much all players, including goalies, have peaks and values.
Its imperative that Skinner gets his game back up a couple of levels but its not fatigue that’s the issue (I wouldn’t think).
he isn’t a money goalie
He’s not a top level goalie, and that is based on his obvious technique problems and inconsistency. What are the issues? When he looks nervous he loses his net often, carries his glove too low, doesn’t react to shots to name a few. I don’t care what his numbers are, I care how he plays right now, and it’s shaky again
I think that he is still very nervous in playoffs despite his calm demeanour and talking way too much about himself to the media. What matters is what happens on the ice. He’s good enough for them to win a Cup, but not a top goalie yet. He’s still the best goalie overall they have had in a while
Is Nurse injured? he doesn’t look like himself.
He’s just not very good, and Ceci is quite poor.
Nurse needs a good #3 to keep his head above water which unfortunately we chose to not address
Agree – Nurse has terrific tools but he doesn’t process the game the way Ekholm does to calm the waters. He routinely makes 1-2 bone headed plays a game that make you clench your cheeks. He can have stretches of excellent play, but right now he’s struggling.
At 9+ million he should be able to carry his own pairing. He’s overpaid by 3 million, which is the cap space needed to upgrade from Ceci.
I understand why players take all the money they can (money) but I’ll never get how a player could value it over taking less to help his team win. I imagine that if Nurse was getting 8mil like Trouba or closer to the 7.5mil that I’d say he’s worth, there’d be a lot less talk of how bad he has been- both because his lower cap hit and because of the increased quality of the roster around him.
At the end of an 8 x 8 contract, he’d still have earned 64mil before taxes. Does the extra 10mil really make that much of a difference when you’re already gonna be earning obscene amounts of money in even a 1%-return investment portfolio? I guess it must.
Worst mistake Holland made was signing Nurse to that deal. Worse than Campbell … at least he can be bought out this summer.
Nurse makes too much money for far too long to trade or to buyout, But he’s just not a true first pairing D-man and he is not close to living up to that contract. In a must win game, the coaching staff chose to shelter him behind Ekholm.
Coffey needs to coach him up and get him to start skating and defending. He hasn’t looked engaged, and he’s giving up the blueline way too easily.
Playing the first pairing that many minutes through the playoffs is not sustainable.
Ceci torpedoes all D, with a better partner he’d be ok’ish
You could also add in that if you are on Connor’s team and you take less you have a better chance of being on a multiple Cup winner. And that has post career earning implications
If they never win a Cup, all of them except Connor will soon be forgotten when they retire. Who talks or thinks about Joe Thornton anymore, one of the best players of his time? He only retired in 2022
The OIlers passed on signing Nurse to long term deals twice, and then Holland facilitated Chicago resetting the defenseman marketplace.
Nurse bet on himself. He has carried rookie D, offense only D, slow D. The Oilers have never given him a legit top 4 partner.
He still won’t be more than average. We know this by watching his decision making and passing which is mostly on him not his partner in the greater sense
He did finish seventh in Norris Trophy voting when he played that season with Bear
A bit stunning that Vinnie had more minutes than Darnell. Talk about value!
Vinnie did not show well in those minutes….
Ceci is terrible.
Henrique and Perry are too slow.
Nurse and McLeod cannot carry three guys.
Play Holloway and Janmark with McLeod.
Then only only one vulnerability is left.
Holloway continues to impress out there. Had a great shift in OT before Bouchard ended it. Would like to see him get more ice time next game.
I honestly think he needs way more ice time. I’m not buying the veteran players bring more mistake free hockey. Holloway is actually a threat. I’m tired of watching others get nothing done, can’t keep up with the play and can’t create turnovers.
Oilers have only a few skaters that can pace the Avalanche, Holloway is one of them. Fearless, with energy to burn. He is what is needed.
Agreed. Liked Clouder’s game too. And Janmark, he was around it. Need more from Kane and Perry. Henrique looked like a guy playing hurt.
Great effort by the Oilers. Ref’s were terrible, luckily they didn’t decide the game.
I thought the refs did us a major favour by not calling the McDavid high sticking double minor. Coaches said it best after the game … “tough job”. They stayed out of the way in the third and let the Oilers decide the game.
I agree, the Oilers caught a big break. That high stick was at an important time in the game and could have changed the outcome. They missed it, happens. They missed lots of other infractions as well – obviously that one stands out, as it should.
I don’t think this was the case last night but, in my opinion “staying out of the way” is generally not what I want from the officials if it means putting the whistles away. Of course, this is the playoffs, so the “standard” may move from what’s a minor penalty but, if it goes so far as ignoring the obvious infractions in an effort to “let the players decide the game”, the ignorance is playing a role in deciding the game.
That wasn’t the case last night but there were a ton of missed calls, both ways.
Kulak is having a good playoffs. This has become a yearly thing
It’s why Broberg has been left in the A
Nobody was arguably for Broberg to replace Kulak. We were arguing for him to have the opportunity to replace Ceci.
Not actually accurate.
Many were suggesting a Kulak trade to make room – Kulak struggled early in the year as well and a rotation could have been a thing.
Some suggested a rotation with Deharnais.
Some, few, but some, thought that he should play the toughest minutes on the team on his off-side while the Oilers were trying to “come back from the effing dead”.
Thanks for catching that answer OP you are correct.
Stecher can replace Ceci.
Amazing game.
Glimmer twins right many wrongs.
Same issues as previous playoffs remain:
-Questionable goaltending
-Ceci
-Secondary scoring evaporating.
Ryan the only non-pp forward with a point in the series.
Same as it ever was.
The Oilers need the support crew to start scoring.
They have more better players after ‘5 years’, but it’s a poor mix, still holes and too much slow