Today’s word is “urgency” and the phrase of the day is “Cup or bust.” If you’re looking for a movie scene to describe the moment it’s surely “damn, we’re in a tight spot” from Oh Brother, Where Are Thou? fits the situation.
The big problem tonight: Edmonton’s offense is a geographical oddity. Two weeks from everywhere!
Kris Knoblauch has to unlock the offense tonight, five-on-five and on the power play. I have to tell you that Knoblauch’s season will be one of the items I write about early in the summer. He has made some exceptional decisions, and in the playoffs has approached (at times) Scotty Bowman seer levels.
Reading the tea leaves, I think it’s a good guess that Evander Kane will not play tonight, Darnell Nurse will play and the second pairing (Brett Kulak-Philip Broberg) will play elevated minutes. The Draisaitl line is key, I wonder if Connor Brown finds his way up the depth chart, or if Nuge slides from 97’s unit to the second line.
My feeling about this team, in this final, is there’s just too much for things to end this way. This Oilers team has so much offense, what is happening in this series is borderline blasphemy. At some level, one has to make peace with what the fates provide and give credit where due.
I remain convinced the Edmonton Oilers will win the Stanley Cup. Even now, today, for me it’s the most likely outcome of this series. Stuart Skinner has given up an average of two five-on-five goals per game in the SCF. I believe that’s a winnable formula considering the quality of the penalty kill.
No goals five-on-five through two games for the Edmonton side. My prediction for tonight: The Oilers score a bunch of goals, surrender more than they should, and win a 6-5 thriller that leaves the entire city shaking all over.
We’ll cover tonight’s game from every angle, noon to 2 on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join me and we’ll have your comments all show. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
There is a lesson to be learned here.
Whatever Drake bets, do the opposite.
I’m trying to “hate” Florida. I can’t I’ve never seen a team with such consistent tenacity in all zones of the ice. It’s crazy. And like someone said, if there are hiccups, Bobrovsky is reading the Oilers like a book.
Some pretty balanced POVs this morning.
I think this is the outcome of 2-9-1. All hands on deck all season means Kane doesn’t heal and the top dogs look gassed. Maybe including Skinner.
Let’s go get ‘em Saturday. Bob let in 3 he can let in 4. And go from there I guess.
how does skinner keep getting starts? Pickard has been the safer option all along
Skinner has saved two seasons and got the Oilers to a Stanley Cup final, and he is only finishing his season season.
I know now is not the time. But, why oh why did they not have Kane do the hernia repair at the beginning of the season? Recovery time is not incredibly long. They could have LTIR’d him, and had him back ready to go for playoffs. LT eluded to it at end of the season, but it became a big darn deal.
Thought about it too. But they’ve been all hands on deck all season….
Agreed. The start killed any wiggle room plus some.
Perhaps because the player was not willing to shut it down with surgery when he was “able to play”. Player has a say and you can’t just shut a player down (well, unless foisted by medical and not cleared).
Sure, they could have just sat him but do you think this is a player that is going to stay quiet if they were trying to force something upon him?
Also, I just want to say in that my fan fiction world, I’m imagining that as the first Oiler tried to leave post-game, Sam Gagner blocked the door holding 4 flats of local craft beer. And 2 hours later they are all sitting in the room, drinking quality Edmonton brewed beer, and reflecting on how it has been a great year and THEY ARE NOT READY FOR IT TO END YET. They are all gripping their sticks, time to remember it’s a game and they are living every Canadian boys dream (*exaggeration). Go out in game 4 and leave it out there. Sam will have another 4 flats after the game either way.
Also, I posted this below but:
Ryan played 5 minutes tonight. I know he PKs, but not only would I play Samwise, I would start him. Like his wife said, the whole city has been dreaming with him. Let’s dream the impossible dream. And also blow the roof off Rogers.
Sam Gagner was struggling to keep up at the AHL level down the stretch and was terribly behind in the one NHL game he got at the end of last year.
It seems highly improbably that he would be able to provide any positive impact on the ice – good feelings weren’t going to help i don’t think.
Diverging a bit…we had ABC broadcast on again (Ray Ferraro is the best). Oilers hadn’t won a period yet with ABC on, so flipped to Sportsnet in the 3rd. After a bit, turned that down (couldn’t take Simpson after Ray). So started music instead. First up:
Game got interesting again in a hurry, and two things are known for Saturday in our house:
One game at a time. Let’s Go Oilers!
Ferraro is an absolute gem. Simpson is the opposite
Man Florida has an iron curtain of defense…
Its rock solid. And when there is a hiccup, bob is solid.
I believe that this, the oilers, is a team that could do the unthinkable and come back from down 0-3….
Will they? …. will they play like game one and just dominate but continue until they can score? Man i hope so. But i have doubts…
Lets just get one win and go from there!!!
I still believe. Oilers in 7
HD chances 8 for Panthers
HD chances 7 for Oilers
Fits the score well
Valiant effort…
Loading up McDrai ( their Dzone coverage together has been grotesque a lot )
Ceci lost puck battle behind net ( his signature move)
Nurse lost in space on Bennet goal
Game got too out of hand from the usual suspects
How many times can we say the same things.
effort is great … Results is alll that matters at this level…
Over the course of the last 3 seasons, Leon Draisaitl is 6th in the league in even strength points. That’s a lot of ES points for a guy that relies on PP points…. right?
He’s also 2nd in ES points in the playoffs over those 3 years….
And he’s been injured the past 3 rounds.
You misunderstand my point.
I want to pay him $11.5 million per eight.
I want to give him a $3 million per year raise. More details I’d do this With no escrow, and I’d pay him close to $28
million in the next 18 months with signing bonuses and creative contracts.
Id want to make him whole and then some from the Covid years.
But I don’t think he’s at the point of $13 million. I think McDavid stirs the drink and I think it’s totally fair to fade PP points that see McD, Bouchard and Nuge all contributing heavily to individual offensive generation.
$11.5 million isn’t an insult. It’s a great contract for what is set to be post peak years for the final 4.
Fade the PP points and he’s 6th in the league in ES scoring over the last 3 years (2nd in the playoffs).
By every comparable, he’s in the $13.5MM range.
I also want to pay him $11.5MM – the market sets the resaonable expectation, not what I want.
His number say he’s fading at 5v5 and it’s likely to continue as he gets older.
Whats his 5v5 points these playoffs? What are they the last 9 games in these playoffs? Is he hurt again in the playoffs? These are things a GM asks before he opens his cheque book.
The pay at $11.5 million is fantastic and it allows the oilers to build around him.
As an example his 5v5 would be better if he had a Hyman instead of a Foegele.
Yes, I’ve been on record that my preferred term for Leon is 5 years but, again, the market is what the market is and it pay THESE guys for their regression years.
There is little doubt in my mind his next contract will eventually age badly – he’s an “older UFA”, 30 when it kicks in I think.
He may start to regress visibly soon but probably not for a couple of years – there are still elite, bordering in generationally elite, seasons left here.
I had no idea the Florida Panthers were that good..
Seriously?
They had to come all the way back to have a shooter’s chance. All the way back and then momentum is flipped and there will never be a lead the Bob-cats will feel comfortable holding.
We’ll see this Cup Final out to the finish, that’s what good fans do, and the Oil won’t be an easy out, miracles can happen, but they let a real opportunity tonight slip through their fingers. Coulda woulda shoulda. Half way through the game probably should’ve had a two goal lead.
I said here before the series started, Oilers would have to execute… finish their chances, get the saves, repeat special teams success. And now lack of finish is the story of the series. Gripping sticks too tight, over thinking, over passing… I thought they were ready for the moment but apparently they had to visit once first.
Trade Nurse for Marner. Then trade Marner for a RHD.
Why would you down vote this: if they could get rid of that contract they would!!
Yup that the play.
I f’ing can’t stand the eastern media but they got this one right. Call it a blind squirrel, or adept analysts. The Oilers are injured and immature. You can’t be both. They called a short series and Fla depth, forecheck, and system suffocating the Oilers. McD can’t piss a drop when needed. They got more dangerous shots on our EN that we did on their’s. That’s all she wrote.
I believe that in the playoffs, it’s how you manage your errors. Fla makes errors but never 2 sequentially. If there’s 1, the next possession is flipped out. They made plenty of errors tonight but very rarely was it 2 in a row. The Oilers? See below:
Goal 1: Horrid coverage on the 4on4. The glimmer twins are very arrogant when they think they’ve got space. They play like they’re in the first round playing a lesser skilled Kings. That won’t cut it in the final. Bouche with the giveaway (error 1) and a very very slow pickup on the onrushing dman (either McD or Leon have to get on him quickly – error 2).
Goal 2: Stu and Ceci on the 2nd Fla goal. You can’t make both errors. Either the G gives it away, or the dman behind the net gives it up (with a goalie in position). You can’t do both. And both were preventable: Stu recognizes the heat on the dump or Ceci gets his stick and body into position on the oncoming forward.
Goal 3: Holloway has the puck on the halfboards and can’t make the quick play (error 1). Puck goes low and Nurse tries to skate it out and chip to the boards with a soft play with 2 oncoming cats (error 2). Then he can’t stop the pass and boom it’s in the net. Stu never had a chance. Great shot.
Goal 4: Ekholm with a very very bad pinch when they’ve clearly got possession. Great shot. Sometimes it’s only 1 error.
I love my team and it’s very hard to watch these games. I’m very happy they’re in the SCF but I hoped for just a bit more. To lose in 6 or 7 is still amazing (to be close). But they aren’t going to get even a sniff here. And they don’t deserve one either. They’re immature, undisciplined, unfocused, and way too nervous. The results speak to their level of execution.
I have the impression Leon is injured more than we know. He doens’t have that pop in his step to be able to skate away from pressure in the neutral zone. Having a dangerous second line would be amazing but without it they’re getting eaten alive. It’s easy to load up against McD and Leon can be outplayed because he cheats for offence (even when he can’t skate himself out of trouble).
Goal 1 :How many times can we see the same thing happen….
Loading up McDrai….
You will be writing the same post next year.
Its been talked about so many times…
Oilers Can’t Stop. Won’t Stop
2GA: the fatal error was Holloway letting his man go to the slot unfettered for an easy goal
I don’t really think so. Ceci had at worst 50/50, Skinner is playing the puck. Holloway is anticipating a rim around the boards or at worst a battle. Skinner fumbles, Ceci quits skating and reaches, and boom. I’m not Des fan, but if he’s in he at least prevents the pass and likely gets the puck to the other corner at least.
That’s not at all correct.
I’ve said similar about the Oilers for a few years. It’s not that mistake happened, but the Oilers have a tendency to compound it. First mistake and then another and if the goalie doesn’t make a huge save it’s a GA. We see it too many times.
The hardest one to win is the 4th one. We’re still at home on Saturday… WIN IT FOR YOUR FATHERS (DAY), WIN IT FOR YOUR MOTHERS…
WIN IT FOR YOUR FANS!!! Love ’em, but losing like we are, is way tough.
Not even LT was an apologist for this result on his show today
So please spare us all the arguments that will happen
An all time best and another. Both heading past prime. Another fail
Its not on the talent, its on a poor roster construction
They’ve got a healthy Barkov, Tkachuk, and Bob. Leon is playing hurt (since game 1 against the Nux). That could easily be the difference. Without a healthy Leon, the second line is a sitting duck.
well they are in the Stanley Cup Finals. Top 2 of 32.
not sure that’s a fail.
This^
The difference between where the Oilers are and a first(or even a second round exit) is greater than where they are now and SC champion. They’ve played well enough to win (ex-errors) in 2 of the 3. The roster is flawed, sure, but they’re in the dance. And they deserve to be in the dance.
Agreed.
Depends on how you weight having McD. Many don’t think it means anything. All time greats win multiple cups, I think getting there is fine, getting hammered isn’t. Wasting this gift is horrible and it’s not on the players, fully on the dusty GM
And now the end is near
And so I face the final curtain…
They did it their way…
Can we truly be mad?
Horrid record to SCF.
Bob is back on the case, drai is definitely injured, broberg will be on the team next year.
I was not a believer in November, they proved me wrong that’s for sure
I’m sure the word “embarrassed” and the like will come out in full force and – not even close, at least not for me!
Let’s hope they win the next one at least.
Oilers in 7 OP!
Where’s the original OP when whe need him?
Why do you always try to create a narrative?
Calm your tits and just respond to what is commented
FFS!!!!
Feel free to skip and move on.
Or, of course, given the posts in here (and outside of hear) using the the exact word……..
Simmer down, was it?
Summer, Donna.
Simmer, Don, Na
Simmer Down Now.
McCleod gets that shot up and it’s 4-4. Hyman scores 20 seconds in in game 1 or Oilers don’t miss on all 3 breakaways then and that’s maybe a different game. Throw in 1-2 more saves for Skinner maybe it’s a different series.
True. but it’s all “if my Aunt had ****, she would be my uncle”
Jack Campbell and Cody Ceci for Patrick Laine.
He’s only got 2 years left on that contract. If they’ll take it, I’m in.
Might as well ask for Werenski as well…
Love it, but why on earth would Columbus?
.826 goaltending is not winning anything against a top flight team. I hope Skinner can eventually become a more mentally strong player but numbers to date in playoffs are terrible. MacD has covered the gaps on the team to date but I wonder if he needs to change his game somewhat? Also is there a leadership void, thought about Messier in this group but that is unreasonable, Jason Smith would look good leading the backend in the playoffs, he had tremendous gamesmanship and blood and guts effort.
.778 really. 4 goals on 18 shots, when the 4th went in.
He stopped a few pucks after it didn’t matter anymore.
Well I said I was going to enjoy this but I had to sit outside on timeout after the 4th goal against.
That was tough. Ceci, Skinner, Nurse. But the big boys have talked a great game and not delivered. As I said, we aren’t playing San Jose and there is no comparison between the defensive back pressure that Florida offers vs the Oil. Details. And while skinner didn’t make a big save, look at the placement of their shots.
I’d give my left nut to hear Paul Coffey’s insights on why this team repeatedly falls short.
By my eye, the situational discipline they showed in that 16 game streak was nowhere to be found tonight. When the pressure dialed up, this team beat itself imo.
I agree to a point. That situational awareness disappeared about 11 games into the win streak. They still won 5 more, which probably hurt more than it helped.
100% completely unforced errors in high danger areas at the worst times. Add to that the best powerplay in history is 0 for 11 or something. Putting a few then certainly wouldn’t hurt. We’ve only allowed what 4 PP goals against all playoffs, that is extraordinary. They’ve held up their end of the bargain.
Our power play got some extraordinary chances going back to the last power play of Game 2. I rarely attribute anything to bad luck, but I’m going to attribute this to bad luck. There’s a lot of randomness in hockey.
Oilers deserve, at worst, to be down 2-1 in this series. A break or two and they’re up 2-1.
Full credit to Florida for their relentless checking, team buy-in, and not allowing Oilers to the middle of the ice. Maybe they’ve earned their luck. But no mistake, they’ve had luck.
List of NHL players with more assists in 1 playoff season than McDavid.
Gretzky. That’s the list. McD has 29. All time record is 31. A Giant walks among us.
Indeed. And that’s why and how they got here. Well, a huge part of it. So yes, he’d trade them all for a Cup, but we wouldn’t have had a chance at it without them.
Also consider the fact that his shot has been off this season, which I believe has led defenders to cheat for a pass. Imagine if he can bring that back next year and make them play that option more honestly
Well Edmonton last option is really play with their back against the wall. Oilers in 7
bob wasn’t invincible one more game and we might get em. you gotta win four!
I hope we don’t have to wait another 20 years to see them win a game in the SCF.
Nope, just 2 days 😉
Disappointing
I want Samwise in for Game 4.
If that guy can’t motivate the team, I don’t know what else would.
Now that it’s pretty much over, I wouldn’t mind seeing him play a SCF game.
It would make such a sweet story to have his name on the Cup won by such a comeback.
Ya I would sub in several players now. Sam, Gleason, Picks.
Ryan played 5 minutes tonight. I know he PKs, but not only would I play Samwise, I would start him. Like his wife said, the whole city has been dreaming with him. Let’s dream the impossible dream. And also blow the roof off Rogers.
Finally found the urgency but too little to late.
We gotta play like that every shift!
EVERY SHIFT!!!
See you guys on Saturday!!!
I DIDNT HEAR NO BELL!!!
WE AREN’T DONE YET!!!
Yes we are. Only way Oilers pull off the Miracle of all miracles is if Bobrobsky somehow breaks his leg and Maurice comes down with a sudden 2-week long illness.
F.U. Florida
I’m not going to downvote this. How could I? I only wish I had your optimism
The only good thing that came from this was beating Bob and getting some depth scoring.
Draisaitl can’t get it going (I would hope he is injured, because considering the alternative is far worse), and McDavid came on too little, too late
Hyman is working hard and can’t buy a goal, worst time to go cold.
My faith in Skinner is at an all time low, and I would consider myself a moderate Skinner booster.
Kane can hopefully get that sports hernia healed and come back a new man (crappy luck with injuries these last 2 years, but I still believe there’s an incredibly valuable player there)
Broberg will be a force next year.
McDavid can hopefully also have time to heal what ails him
Can they make it back to the finals?
Not the only villain, but I will turn over a table if I see Cody Ceci play another game in an Oilers jersey.
There needs to be significant changes, I worry they have overshot the window to win though.
A valiant effort for a comeback attempt, yet just not enough. One tries to remember that the journey is part of the destination, but it sure does hurt…
Well, there we go.
Only thing to play for is pride = not wanting to see the cup presented to the enemy on home ice… in G4 no less. Yuck
Nurse and Broberg +1
Trading Nurse and elevating Broberg to 2LD next season will go a long ways towards fixing the team defense.
been saying that for a while, apparently ‘Nurse has value’ – I hope so!
Has to be under consideration
The OIlers finally have a legit top 4, and you want to break it up, and Broberg probably inexpensive relatively for two more years, and you want to break it up.
This playoffs has shown that the Oilers have 3 top 4 D (Bouch, Ek, Brob) and Nurse and Ceci aren’t in it. They have 2 decent bottom pair (if Des re-signs). Getting a guy like Pesce to play with Broberg would make this crew solid.
How do you suggest convincing Nurse to waive his NMC to go to Utah – or San Jose? Tell him his best buddies have a better chance to win without him?
Why would it be only one of those 2 teams?
You are not going to be able to trade Nurse, even if you wanted to. Nurse with a better D partner would be the best way to maximize his trade value if you wanted to shed salary without giving up 3 1st round draft picks or taking back a worse player on a bad contract in return. Or better yet, he thrives with a different D partner who can help minimize controlled entries and can make better outlet passes. He can break up a cycle and contribute 5 on 5 (42nd among D men)
Nurse was the culprit on the 2nd GA. That was a pivotal moment and he panicked. The play he made was absolutely not a part of the gameplan. They talked about the reverse and firing up the weakside. He attempted to take a shortcut and make the play from right behind the goalie with a man bearing down on him. That was a critical error at a critical time in the game.
The 2nd GA was the Skinner giveaway. I don’t even think Nurse was on the ice. I see Kulak and Ceci in the replay
It was the 3rd GA.
2GA was Skinner and, more importantly, Holloway for losing his man (the goal scorer). I don’t see how that goal is on Ceci, other than some posters blame him for everything.
To me, the 2nd GA was the back breaker. They had all the momentum and another Oilers goal seemed imminent, and then that brutal giveaway sucked the life out of everyone and by the time they recovered it was 4-1
GA #2 — yes, Skinner muffed it
Ceci played a huge role too:
Replay of losing race, to Bennet in Game 1 for the 2nd GA.
Was Holloway along boards for a ring around from Ceci?
Who’s downvoting this?
This duo is on all the Florida highlight reels though….
Glad the were on for a few ….but the GA was PUTRID
Nurse
CF% 40
SF% 38
GF 2 / GA 1
Lots of defending
Reinhart’s pursuit causing Bouchard to have to go behind the net, then the Panthers freezing that puck for about 30 seconds, is a pretty good metaphor for the Panthers game.
(As soon as Drai was the guy trying to enter the zone I knew we were in trouble.)
Leon Draisaitl with another terrible effort.
He’s probably injured.
But he’s been a non factor in five straight games in not a full drag.
$11.5 million x eight is extremely fair
compensation. At some point the streakiness is a factor in total compensation.
Why say probably? We know Drai is injured.
Is it a brain injury?
This series reminds me of the old Ovechkin Capitals getting goalied in the playoffs.
or TBL vs Columbus that year… who was that goalie again?
GAH
Not what I was hoping for but the Oilers put in a good 3rd period.
Microcosm of the series right there. You outnumber them and still can’t win a puck battle.
Microcosm of the game and series in that corner.
Syke!
Oilers putting up a valiant effort, but unfortunately out of time. Pulling goalie will likely sink them
Holy cow McLeod could have been a superhero.
I’m reminded of old Oilers-Dallas series where I spent a lot of time not breathing.
Maybe the key to defeating Florida is to spot them an early 3-goal lead and wait for them to go to sleep.
this must be the 6-5 thriller alan was prophesizing
Apparently Florida’s Achilles heal is goals from Defenceman.
hmm…
edit: nm that was McLeod