You are looking live at the June 2015 Oilers roster in the moments before the Connor McDavid draft. There is much to discuss today, but I wanted to begin the proceedings with a quick walk down memory lane. The anticipation was incredible, even though everyone knew the outcome. Music!! What a moment.
DRAFT DAY 2015
CHIARELLI’S LIST
- Draft McDavid (and sign him)
- Find a quality goalie option (this is the Talbot item)
- Acquire a legit top pairing blue (as always, clear as mud days before bullets fly. Dougie Hamilton=perfect fit)
- Sign a more offensive two-way F
- Ignore MacT re: Marincin (Or trade Marincin for real value and not a damn pick)
McDavid arrives today, Cam Talbot would cover the goalie option but Adam McQuaid doesn’t move the needle on option three. Early days men, we should allow Peter Chiarelli to do his work. IF the Oilers leave Florida with McQuaid and no other blue for 2015-16, we should expect something in the coming days (beyond McQuaid). I’m guessing trade.
I suspect it will be Cam Talbot, that’s the play here. The problem? As we’ve discussed all along, Glen Sather is the asshat’s asshat when it comes to negotiation. I had a boss years ago (good guy, on the off chance he’ll read this) who used to say it’s only a good negotiation if both sides feel a little pain. Sather’s like that, every day is a root canal. Loved it when he was Oilers’ GM, hate it now. My guess is (and has been for some time) No. 33 overall and a substantial pick from 2016.
So far this draft season, Chiarelli has played things straight up in my opinion. He MAY reach a point of overpay but I think he’s reading the market correctly. If the Flames (as an example) blow their brains out on Talbot, that leaves the free-agent market with one fewer player. You want Talbot, but not at any price. Fair? I think so.
I do think the Flames may end up with Cam Talbot but Edmonton will have given their best shot. Talbot would be a terrific add, the question is the price. I still think it’s No. 33 overall and another pick inside the top 90 next year. If the Flames end up with Talbot, I’d like to see Chiarelli take a run at Eddie Lack.
These years later, we know that the team was also interested in acquiring Griffin Reinhart. That was Peter Chiarelli’s original sin, he did in fact overpay and do so on a player who would not make one iota of difference. A stunning asset loss, like going from first and 10 two second and a mile. Not even Earl Campbell can save you.
We don’t know the name of the new general manager, but with Ken Holland not attending the draft we can assume the men in place (Jeff Jackson, Brad Holland, Rick Pracey, etc) will have their hands on the wheel in Vegas.
We all have our views on how this should go. For me, I don’t touch the young group who have shown they can play in the NHL. That’s Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway. If a cull is to take place, and that is surely the case, it must be from the other end. The older players.
Holland has the new man boxed in with long-term deals on fading assets. Names include Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse and Jack Campbell. Various forms of NMC clauses make trading these men over the summer impossible, although the comment section will be filled with myriad Nurse trades over the next couple of weeks. Buying out Jack Campbell is the easy move, after that I’m not sure the new GM has a move on the chessboard with the elders on the roster.
Older players signed short term include Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci. Trading Ceci is the easy step, but Kulak may have to be dealt, too. A LH side of Ekholm, Nurse and Broberg is quality for 2024-25. Finding a RH partner for Nurse should be a major offseason goal, and perhaps it is Broberg (they had a nice run in the postseason).
I would buy out Jack Campbell, trade Ceci, retain Kulak, and open up opportunity for at least one farmhand in each roster spot. What do I mean? Well, Olivier Rodrigue should come in to camp with a chance at the backup job. You can accomplish this by signing Calvin Pickard as the NHL backup on a value deal.
The same opportunity should be given on defense. With Broberg as one of the top six, and Vincent Desharnais heading for a free-agent payday (still can’t believe some of the comments over the winter about getting him back at a low, low cost) beyond Edmonton’s number, names like Phil Kemp, Ben Gleason and eventually Max Wanner should be given a shot.
Up front, I think James Hamblin or Raphael Lavoie or even Tyler Tullio should get a look in camp. Edmonton can sign Corey Perry for sure, but that doesn’t mean he will play a ton this season. Those boots are made for walking, not running, and that applies on the ice now, more than ever.
I think we’re going to see plenty of activity in the next seven days. I’m not sure the direction, and am not sure management knows for sure, either. A good start would be to stop contemplating what Ken Holland would do, and start realistically looking at fading the aged and pushing the youth. That’s a very fine start.
At noon today, we hit the ground running with the news of the day on Sports 1440. We’ll have Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic to talk about the final, plus the week and month ahead. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will give us his view of the happenings, including the laundry list of injuries. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
— Anyone watching anything good on TV right now?
^^^ THIS IS BAIT
— Jays won. Great post game analysis…
Nice win but the Jays are a bad team. Have to be management changes on the way soon.
Just making a joke about the presidential debate being on. Lol.
Another blue team has a Jack Campbell problem to solve.
Elks playing the Lions in BC right now on TSN. Crowd looks pretty sparse although you don’t get many camera shots that includes much of the stands. Likely on purpose. I think the Elks have drawn less than 10,000 fans per game so far. How long is the CFL going to survive in a gate driven league? I can remember when at times it was hard to get a seat in Commonwealth when they had almost 60,000 seats. Does Canadian football have a future?
Fallout.
I just watched the JJ availability and now I’m really starting to feel like this offseason could be a disaster.
I’m not worried about being able to add players through trade or free agency, or even getting our own FAs signed, but this is the time in the offseason that we need to be actively trying to free up cap space. It doesn’t sound like Jackson is too interested in acting as a GM despite being the acting GM, and if we’re going to wait until we have a new GM before we do anything, we may be left with significantly fewer options than we need in an already abbreviated offseason.
I do agree with him that the Draisaitl deal isn’t the first order of business despite it being hugely important.
This isn’t a team entering into a rebuild. Going into an offseason without a GM really shouldn’t be an acceptable situation.
That doesn’t sound like what I heard at all – almost the opposite.
He’s already engaged with internal UFAs
He expressly talked about moves to free up cap space.
He expressly talked about buying out Campbell being a consideration but not the preference.
He expressly talked about having target external UFAs they will pursue.
He expressly talked about needing to get a GM in place as a priority and has certain people in mind he wants to talk to ASAP in order to get his guy in place
He also mentioned freeing up cap space with Bob on ON. I got the impression it’s a huge priority right now.
OP, the only team I can imagine taking Jack Campbell is Anaheim. And only if they trade Gibson. Who do you (or anyone on here) think we could offload Jack to?
Mangiapane to the Caps for a 2nd … Conroy is Chiarelli bad as a GM.
It’s really too bad we are their cross provincial rivals. Everyone else is benefitting from the Flames fire sale but we’d undoubtedly have to pay a higher price.
the pick is for 2025.
i don’t understand this from a Flames perspective. Cutting salaries to minimum or Mamgiapane asked to be moved?
Flames fans believe it’s to help clear room for a big Debrusk signing.
Bouchard finished 5th in Norris voting – Adam Fox was fourth.
Ekholm – 12th.
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
Connor McDavid will not require any off season surgery and will be ready for the start of training camp.
3:07 PM · Jun 27, 2024
Yay Connor!
what is the injury?
I read oblique muscle tear somewhere on the Interweb, but it was an unreliable source.
We don’t know
All we know is that he doesn’t require surgery
JJ stated today that he hasn’t spoken with the training staff yet and wouldn’t be commenting publicly
Van lockinh up there players and we announce we have no GF hahaha Oilers Baby
GM oops
Congratulations to Brogan Rafferty for finishing 5th in the Norris race
How do we not have a GM a week before free agency
Might be one July 1
Because we can’t steal a guy from another team until after the draft
Mike Grier continues to do smart things, having just traded up from #14 to #11 in the first round.
That #14, which came from the Erik Karlsson trade, along with a 2nd rounder which SJ got for free for taking on Jake Walman, who is a decent player in and of himself, is now set to land the Sharks a top defensive prospect.
If you’re going to scorch the earth, and San Jose was in a good place to do so, you had better get it right. So far, Rosy has gotten it all right.
How does the Goodrow waiver claim fit in? Even if the player was cool with it and he’s expressly unhappy.
Need the cap floor somehow?
Goodrow is exactly what we needed, I was hoping they bought him out and we got him. Despite the player wanting to stay on contenders, smart move by Rosey to me and they have the cap for him being overpaid. Need some functional toughness to take care of the 1OV
Goodrow is an asset to a playoff team. I’m sure he gets flipped at some point to a contender.
But I think he still has a couple years left on his contract.
I think he was brought in as toughness to mentor the young guys. Plus he’s familiar with San Jose as a winning franchise – he scored one of the biggest goals in the franchise’s history (G7 OT winner vs Vegas).
I would trade Kulak. I’d like Broberg to have his best opportunity on his strong side. Not sure where he is on the depth chart.. 2-3. but hopefully he can pick up Elkholm duties when that contract is up.
The OIlers biggest problem is the spot beside Nurse. Broberg fixes it while waiting for Wanner.
Kulak is ideal for the spot where he plays.
The perfect is the enemy of the very good.
If we are into stats, Broberg did not fare well with Nurse. Bro is talented, and the GF% were good, but with these stats it’s asking a lot for him to keep that GF% over a season on his off hand. Regression
I’ll use shots because of the small sample, 5v5
Nurse Bro 66:40 SF% 37.7 Goals 4-2
Kulak Bro 24:56 SF% 42.11 Goals 0-0
Ceci Bro 34:21 SF% Goals 2-0
Bouch Bro 7:13 SF% 87.5 Goals 0-0
SF% not good with anyone but Bouch where he was playing LD. To me it’s better having him LD and available to fill in at RD so that they get a RD. Vinny can’t do it if Bro doesn’t work out. My concern is it doesn’t work over time, and they have a problem to fix that will cost extra assets. Also that almost all LD see a drop off at RD
Why not have him at his best? He will be replacing one of the LD at some point
Yeah, some rough indicators. Small sample though, and in the toughest possible situation (weeks off) and the roughest time of year. can we truly extrapolate?
Maybe a chance to grow in that position is all that’s needed. On the other hand, maybe they find a true RD to slot there…
I’m thinking only one of Ceci and Kulak return. I like Kulak’s game better (he rises every playoffs), and he’s a lower cap hit.
Bro hasn’t done well stats wise RD at any time he’s played there, people have put numbers up over the years. I am also not sure relying on him to be top 4 before he proves he’s good to do it full time is smart. We’ve been down that road. Let him have some time to smooth the wobbles out
And while his performance was great all things considered, there were wobbles. Full time NHL is a good enough start for him
So even though he’s a good player, Kulak should go. Take the cap from him and Ceci or use them for a trade and get an established appropriate RD for Nurse. If next season Bro takes Nurse’s job great, good problem to have and good for the playoffs, and a discussion about Nurse moving becomes more likely. He’s not going to want to be third pair
Wobbles? Glad to know he’s human. Kidding, but only partly. Broberg was thrust into a near impossible situation, and did well. Let’s see what happens with regular minutes. A key would be the return of Coffey. (November ‘23 me did not expect to say that re: Coffey, but he’s been great, and with Broberg’s excellent skating,I think Coffey could really help Broberg’s game grow).
How about Nurse – Broberg for long enough to see what that combo can do? Or Ekholm – Broberg (the rumoured plan for last fall, before Elholm’s injury). If it’s not working, deadline deal to bring in a RD. In either scenario, Broberg is getting regular minutes with the big club, something that hasn’t happened much over the years.
I would prefer they were proactive now and not reactive. Connor has years left of great play. They can’t keep burning assets with short term thinking
To me you add some depth at the deadline at low cost (later picks have little impact almost always, keep first and hopefully second round picks and your good prospects) but you build your team in the summer
Saying he was wobbly wasn’t a criticism, it’s pointing out that was a small sample, the stats weren’t good even if he played well given, and it’s really risky to go into a contending season betting on a rookie playing off hand. And not easy to fix. Let him settle in
Thanks for the stats and comments. Small sample size and all, but those touting the success with Nurse aren’t discussing these stats or the small sample size. I fully agree that deciding where/how to utilize Broberg is a nice problem to have.
Thanks as well. The biggest issue they have is so many players that are underwater in possession
It’s been the same for years. At the end of the day Connor is driving the majority of positive play and there are problems when he’s off. It got better this reg season, reverted in playoffs as always
Something I just thought on is if you have Bro LD, how much positive possession will he drive for the bottom 6? Tons. Functional depth. ‘If ‘ big minutes in the A pushed him to where he is, it’s fair to say 3rd pair minutes crushing it will also help him develop. And if the 3 pair is driving things for bottom 6 forwards these coaches will play them
I agree, but only because him & Ceci both made awful mistakes on the GWG in game 7…
& I’m the type to hold a grudge. (this is satire, mostly)
Yeah, Kulak made a mistake at the worst possible time. I’d like to know what was going through his mind.
It’s a shame, because he had hardly made a mistake prior to that in the playoffs.
Regarding reffing…
It’s known the league chose refs for game 7 who produced higher win percentages for Florida. It’s visible to the eye that they let teams get away with murder on McDavid and Draisaitl. Further to this point, they let injuries happen to these players with no call or suspension.
Many will say the above is coincidence. Fine. But what’s an incontestable fact is the following, the ages of the refs given Stanley Cup Finals games:
Sutherland, Kelly 52
McCauley, Wes 51
O’Rourke, Dan 51
Rooney, Chris 48
Kozari, Steve 50
Dwyer, Gord 46
Pollock, Kevin 53
Charron, Francis 40
Furlatt, Eric 51
Hebert, Jean 42
There’s a reason these guys don’t call penalties: they can’t keep up with, see or hear them. Stauffer on Red Bull can see, hear, and process the game better than these guys.
To put things in context, I’m acquaintances with an elite NHL player. The guy is so smart and so fit, and in the age range listed above. He trained at an elite level his entire career. According to him, 5 years ago he stopped being able to keep up with the kids he coached. I could not really imagine this guy reffing a game.
The refs on the list above were never elite. They are mostly failed hockey players who weren’t good enough to be even semi pro. They were too slow as could not process the game fast enough to be players.
These are the guys who are deciding the outcomes of NHL Stanley Cup Finals games: 50 year old hockey lovers, who were never good enough to keep up with semi professionals when they were at their peak. They are blind, deaf and dumb.
The old cliche of the ref with the white cane isn’t a metaphor: it’s reality.
I don’t know why there are downvotes.
Me either.
Thanks Chelios…
Some more facts…
Last year I pointed-out a stat collected since 1977-78 which aligns somewhat neatly with the WHA expansion: Times Shorthanded Per Game.
All time teams most penalized by that measure are: The Flames, Sabres, Jets, Oilers and Canucks. Western Canadian teams, and a team very close to the centre of the universe.
Some smart people, namely Bruce McCurdy, claimed the sample could have been biased by more physical play in the 80’s. So I normalized and standardized the data, and charted it showing the individual seasons for each western team.
Bars above the zero line are above average. Other lines are standard deviations. The visualization shows the Western Canadian teams as having disproportionate rates of times shorthanded per game.
Why? Well, probably because not only are the refs 50 years old. They are disproportionately from Ontario and likely leafs fans. That’s the funny thing about bias, even if unconscious it will show in a large sample like this. And even if the refs miss a lot of calls, those calls missed will reflect their bias as well.
The red highlighter indicates 1993 when Gary Bettman became commissioner. That asymmetry is more difficult to explain. Except that Bettman likes parity, and “this is what parity looks like!”
Because old folks don’t like to hear it.
I’m on board with you here, but at some point we have to acknowledge some things that could be better.
Thanks Ryan, good points.
Old dudes can’t see this type of thing. And if they can, they are ignoring it.
Bettman is a forceful personality and he knows how to keep a job. Incorrect attribution is a problem everywhere and around here
I don’t think he had much to do with growth. Everything has changed since he took over, all sports have grown, North America and the world has changed. I might even say he has hampered this innate growth
Bettman said when he first came in that he would prove that hockey wasn’t regional. He’s put money in the owners pockets via the growth and especially expansion. Hockey isn’t a huge sport world wide, and that expansion has diluted the league. The cap, and Mr McCurdy’s fav the loser point have made the league seem to have ‘parity’
That you have shown the reffing does not balance statistically fits this direction. Especially when Bettman came on. So the smaller Canadian audience that drives revenue gets sacrificed for the lust for US audience deal profits. Maybe a new commissioner rebalances things, we hope
Pure profit driven motives always fail in time. We are sure seeing it happen now in other industries as the formerly over heated world economy has a rebalancing
I’m curious to hear more about what you think causes this imbalance. The mechanisms of imbalance against Canadian teams are real and multi-factorial. Certainly not just hockey related.
Edmonton has reaped a lot of benefits from Bettman’s parity: 2006 Oilers were not a playoff team without the Bettman point; Edmonton has had a ridiculous amount of success at the draft lottery, including McDavid. Without Bettman, we would not have had our last two finals appearances. But it also seems like the same policies and values are restraining our elite talent.
The salary cap is first and foremost a method of salary suppression. Parity is just a nice talking point.
I don’t have more than what I said or what you put together. Without someone leaking something it’s conjecture, but you found a pattern
It’s cold big business. The Canadian fans and most franchises are a given. US teams other than original 6 can put themselves out of business because the fan base is semi interested. Also the big money for the league is the big market – if they can grow it. So far Canada is still the primary market
Allvin gives Dakota Joshua the Zack Kassian contract.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canucks-re-sign-forward-dakota-joshua-to-four-year-13-million-contract/
Joshua can play hockey. Kassian could not.
He’s better than Kassian but still not worth that contract. Unsustainable shooting % this year.
I think you may both be giving Joshua too much credit (or Kassian too little), though I could certainly be wrong. We get the next 4 years to watch it play out.
But we should be happy when our competitors do things like that
Yes, I want them to be unable to afford all of their big dumb ogres on defence this offseason. It’s so hard to win a cup going through that team and their meathead blueline since it takes so much out of the boys if they even manage to win the series.
Maybe the silver lining is our top players will think more about protecting themselves after going through that. Can’t keep getting too injured every playoffs. Players get banged up, but don’t get hit if you don’t have to. Don’t get caught on the boards by 250lb D man. Skate around the big slow guys
The salary cap is significantly higher now so the contracts are really not comparable.
Any contract signed in the next few weeks has to be looked at through a lens that accommodates a salary cap in the $90 – $100 million range.
I think it’s more that DJ had SH% 20. Remember Eberle and Nurse? He’s 28 so not developing much and will regress and that is good for us
For sure…regression on goal scoring is very likely but that is not his primary role on the third line.
He had the 9th most hits in the league this past season with 245 in only 63 games.
Essentially a younger. poor man’s Evander Kane for $2 million lower cap hit.
Kassian’s deal was signed 2 months before Covid with full expectation of continued Cap increases.
The Cap in year 1 of his deal should have been ~$84M, compared to $88M next season.
The two deals are virtually identical even accounting for the Cap.
The cap in the first year of Kassian’s deal was just north of $81 million.
The cap in the first year of the Joshua deal is $88 million and the league has already estimated $92 million for the following season.
Bettman has predicted the cap will rise 5% per season after that so will approach $100 million by the 4th year of the Joshua contract.
The cap was $81.5M for the 19-20 season. Kassian signed at the end of January 2020 (deal to start the following season).
Covid happened and the cap didn’t rise, but reasonable expectation would have had it around $84M when Kassian’s 4 x $3.2M deal began.
Compared to Joshua’s 4 x $3.25M deal on an $88M cap.
Fair enough that the expected cap increase is a little steeper now, but that’s a pretty negligible effect from basically the same starting point.
Kassian’s deal was a bad deal with or without Covid.
Sure. I believe Joshua’s is a similarly bad deal.
As I said, I may be wrong though.
May 7th, 2019 to June 27th, 2024. From the pits of hell to grasping at glory.
How did ol’ Kenny do?
I’ve broken his time with the Oilers into two transaction categories: trades and signings. These have been weighted by impact: franchise shifting, hockey trade/signing, depth move, and irrelevant.
As an example, Samarukov for Klim Shady is rated as a 10/10 and weighted as a hockey trade. Gags and two 2nds for Athanasiou and Kuffner slides in as a 3/10.
I’ve cut nearly all the standard entry level and RFA signings. They’re formulaic and without outliers.
—
Grades by tier:
Trades Overall: 7.5, B
Franchise Shift: 8.7, A
Hockey Trade: 7.0, B-
Depth Move: 6.3, C
Irrelevant: 5.0, D
—
Signings Overall: 6.3, C
Franchise Shift: 6.1, C
Hockey Signing: 6.4, C
Depth Move: 7.5, B
Irrelevant: 5.5, C-
—
In English, Ken Holland excelled at franchise shifting trades, but his franchise shifting signings were sewered by several poor decisions. His hockey moves were generally well done and his depth signings stood out, though his depth trades didn’t always pan out.
He had some absolute stinkers (Campbell, Nurse, Nurse, Kassian’s term, Smithx3, Ceci’s term). Some absolute bangers (Hyman, Nuge, Kanex2, Ekholm, Kostin).
In the end, he took this team from the depths of hell to within a goal post of a cup and all he has to show for it is an overall C+ grade, given out by some random dude on the internet. Tough go.
Could someone else have done better?
Show your work
Interesting work!
I think trading Jesper Wallstedt for Xavier Bourgault and Luca Munzenburger was a bad one.
I think the big ones (Ekholm, Hyman, RNH, and (to be fair) Campbell) have a larger impact factor.
They’re weighted to have a greater impact on the overall grade.
The Wallstedt trade was all picks at the time (20th for 22nd & 90th), not players. We had Stu, Konovalov, and Rodrigue coming up, with Koskinen, Smith, and Stalock vying for the NHL job. As much as we needed a real starter, we didn’t need another goalie prospect.
Did I read that correctly? You gave Holland an 8 for the Duncan Keith trade?
I did. It’s polarizing. Keith played much better than most expected, played an undeniable role in Bouchard’s development, seemed to help the locker room, and Jones turned into fringe NHL Dman. That’s a good trade in hindsight and my opinion.
The cost made it a D for me and I liked Keith a lot for what he did and still does
Holland did bring in some great impact player, albeit older ones, in Ekholm and Hyman.
Unlike the top tier of management of other teams, he’s also added some serious cap killing contracts.
The bigger issues is that he never really finds value and he didn’t really bring in any younger difference makers.
You graded Kulak a 8 for trade and a 9 for signing. Kulak is a bottom-pairing defenseman who required a 2nd round pick, a 7th, and a prospect to acquire as a rental. Then he had to be paid $2.75m x 4 years to retain.
In my mind that’s a decent amount of assets out and cap spent to solve the 3LD position though I like Kulak.
Zito picked up Montour who’s played as a top 4 RHS d, for a 3rd round pick. What do you grade Zito on that trade? (Never mind Forsling off of waivers.)
During Holland’s tenure, countless younger difference makers changed team– Toews, Dach, Bennet, Reinhard (Sam), etc… Holland missed out on all of these transactions.
Kinda Apples and Oranges, no?
Both those guys blossomed in a big way where the Ek and Kulak where fully what the are now when acquired.
No one knew what Forsling would become, he’s a unicorn.
Yes in that Holland only acquired established but aging players in decline.
There are countless examples of GM’s finding hidden talent, many during Holland’s tenure in Edmonton.
The Avalanche picked up Ryan Graves (pre-Holland Oilers), Zadorov, and Toews along the way.
The Devils have a top pairing d in Siegenthaler. He was acquired for a 3rd round pick in April 2021.
Holland didn’t shop in the emerging market aisle. You gotta be in it to win in it.
Saw some discussion re: McLeod the other day
Big issue is expected pay.
At $2m /year I have no issues with McLeod. Problem is/could be that he will be asking for $3m+ on next deal as he and his agent will be pointing at upside.
At that price he is arguably overpaid for what he brings.
McLeod is signed for next year. Let it play out.
I was not impressed with McLeod in the playoffs.
He looks to me like an actual NHL player, but not one who is going to move the needle all that much.
Hopefully his mediocre play was partly a result of his brother’s spot of trouble, which will be resolved one way or another sooner or later.
Good to acknowledge his hard year. There were reports he was not stable emotionally after poor performances and Connor consoling him which is great
He will be better next season probably if he gets his head sorted. But the question isn’t that, it’s what mix of players do they need to be better, and how many gentlemen does one team need?
Because it’s the Oilers, and they are a great historic franchise, I compare them to themselves. And those other Oilers were not a group of gentlemen on the ice. At all. I think they need more agro throughout the lineup. It can’t be just up to Kane
Lots of hard, a few nice guys. Connor and Leon aren’t nice guys on the ice anymore for context
Jackson does not feel the pressure to get a Drai deal done by any date. He has another year on his contract – Leon likes the team, he likes the coach, etc. They need to sit down and talk philosophically. Leon needs to know who the new GM is going to be.
Jackson feels confidant they will sit down as soon as they can. If they don’t have something done by, say, July 15, they’ll continue to work on it – they have a year to work on it.
No specific date to get something done or they think they are putting themselves in peril.
McDavid won’t be part of Leon’s negotiations but they aren’t done in a vacuum – all of us need to sit down and talk philosophically but it won’t be right away – Connor has a wedding, he needs to hire a GM, etc
Good verbal. Don’t rush or pressure your most important task. (but if we get to December without a deal…..)
They have to have it done before the season, not in the next few weeks though. Those trades are summer trades if it got to that
Won’t comment on buying out Campbell – looking at various options – not planning it but considering it.
Haven’t started negotiations with Drai but will see and speak to Mike Liut this weekend.
VERY IMPORTANT the next GM is in place before we really get in to it – Leon will want that as well.
Spec asked about the UFAs being old, etc. – Jackson says probably not talking long term deals with the guys we want to bring back.
Loved the strides Holloway and Broberg took – mentioned McLeod.
Of course, still in win now mode.
Want to continue to integrate younger guys and will look for ways to do that but isn’t concerned if a player is 32 or 34 if they are still contributing and playing a leadership role, etc.
No update on Connor – went through the medical stuff yesterday but he needs to go talk to TD, etc. – won’t comment yet on any of the injury stuff.
Going to look at any way to improve the team. NOt going to be super aggressive and make deals all over the place. Have a great team. Never seen a team gel so well and they matured a ton over the playoffs.
Want to bring back the team but want to tinker. Realistically won’t be able to bring everyone back.
Going to be active and find ways to free up money.
We aren’t going to open the floodgates and make big deals – does not make sense for us.
Jackson agrees he’s the “acting GM” – he will oversee.
He has no intention of being the GM.
He’s got a number of candidates he’s started to reach out to.
Guys he wants to talk to are integral parts of other orgs so will probably have to wait a bit to talk to them.
Doesn’t have a time frame for it but its a big priority and he does not want it to linger.
I’m having trouble wrapping my head around how Jackson’s not further down this path. Maybe teams aren’t granting access until after the draft. Disappointing.
I think that he is. He was an agent, lots behind the scenes and much of it against the rules in terms of when things are allowed by the league. He’s just not letting too much out as it’s sensitive
He told Stauff this evening that he was cognizant of anything leaking out during the playoffs and becoming a distraction and would not risk that.
“I have to find a new general manager” – Jeff Jackson!
Started immediately to talk to own unrestricted free agents – that process has already commenced. Working closely with management group and pro scouts and analytic guys and hockey ops. I’ve been embedded all year with the staff and am aware of personalities and abilities.
Rick Pracey is going to run the draft.
As far as free agents, there are guys that we have targeted. Once July 1 hits we’ll get on that.
The new GM cant tell us moves couldnt be made. there have been moves and there will be moves made. We need to fill 8 positions for 10 million as of now. things need to happen
One thing I don’t see noted a lot but should be said. Oliver Rodrigue is not exempt from waivers next year so if he doesn’t make the team, he’ll likely be picked up on waivers as he was 10th in the AHL in save percentage of goalies that played 25+games (Campbell was #8). Phil Kemp needs waivers as well so I would suspect we see only one of Ceci, Desharnais or a new 2RHD on the roster.
While worth noting as you’ve done, I don’t see 10th in AHL sv% and 0 NHL games played getting you a guaranteed NHL job (which is what claiming on waivers effectively gives him). There are only 64 jobs in the NHL and the majority are locked down tight..
I would suggest that it’s not a 100% certainty he or anyone else gets claimed but if the Oilers decide Calvin Pickard (or anyone else) is the number 2, then Rodrigue is effectively out of the plans (he needs to play 28 games over the next 2 years to not be a group VI UFA). I’m not saying one way or the other to give him a job, just that when looking at the roster that is a consideration that has to be made.
One signs Pickard for cheap as insurance. And probably start the season with Rodrigue as the backup. If he plays well. There is no problem. If he plays poorly, he will clear waivers.
Rodrigue will slide right through waivers like all those before him.
I don’t see a team thinking Oly Rodrigues is the back-up goalie they have been looking for.
— Holland had McDrai for 21mm under his tenure
— His GM tenure during that time is akin to an old man driving a special edition Ferrari: let’s call this Ferrari the “F-29/97 Turbito”.
— Old Dutch was a Volvo driver: safe, reliable. He never crashed, but certainly never got the F 29/97 to perform and throttle to its potential.
— Now the lease is up and hopefully the next “owner” of the F-29/97 Turbito can drive it the way it ought to.
That car needs an Italian tune up!
Engine out service.
Uhh the Nurse contract and Campbell contract both qualify as crashes.
The Nurse contract is quickly becoming a big f ing issue.
— well he was given the Ferrari: he didnt drive it the way it demands and deserves.
— Then he went to the dealership to buy a bunch of other cars for his daily commutes and for the family to share as he knew the F-29/97 turbito wasn’t enough. He needed winter car, pickup truck, something to drive to cottage, a family sedan and so forth.
— He overpaid for some of the cars he thought his family needed. Some of them crashed to be sure and their trade in values low.
— Fortunately the Turbito : the now owner should be able to get a decent lease price, and get get better prices for the rest of his needs.
Nurse isn’t a problem that cannot be solved by getting rid of Ceci, and finally getting him someone decent to play with.
Broberg is actually a fine option. It allows the Oilers to keep Kulak.
Jackson needs Claudio to adjust the caster and camber.
https://youtu.be/RvV3nn_de2k?si=VrEGjZ2waYo1wLMm
Excellent. That one brings back some memories. Thanks.
I think I would try and trade Ceci and Kulak to free up cap space. I love Kulak but I prefer to run Broberg on the left side.
Plenty of good RHD available in free agency.
Walker
Roy
Tanev
Pesce
Should be able to snag one of them.
Carrier 🙂
Nurse and his contract are such a polarizing topic that it behooves us to examine some of the narratives that are in play with this athlete.
Narrative 1 – The die was cast with the bridge contracts that preceded it so there was nothing Holland could do to avoid this contract. It was the market value at the time based on Seth Jones…etc.
This is a textbook example of rationalizing poor process and is exactly the kind of behavior that elite orgs MUST avoid.
Obviously mistake 1 was the timing of the contract. History has now proven that Holland signed Nurse at the worst possible moment when the player had maximum leverage and the org none. Nurse was coming off an outlier offensive season and the FA market for D was especially super heated. This was the best possible scenario for Nurse’s camp. They could argue he was finally emerging as an elite offensive Dman and prices were only going up.
What could a prudent GM do in this situation? 1) Wait him out and put off the negotiation until closer to the expiration of his existing contract. This strategy is essentially saying. “You want Norris contender money. Ok, let’s see you do it 2 seasons in a row.” Or 2) Trade the player.
Scenario 2 leads us to Narrative 2.
Narrative 2 – Darnell Nurse was irreplaceable at that time. Trading him would create a roster hole the team couldn’t possibly fill.
The teams that win the Cup acquire value contracts. Once you start justifying poor value contracts to make up for deficiencies in your procurement model, you are on the sliding path to mediocrity. From Yashin to Lucic, the teams that convince themselves that massive overpays are good business and solid process have an inevitable fate. They’ll be doomed to make poor decision after poor decision to manage their cap crunch while the smart teams will pick up players at bargain prices every year from the mismanaged orgs forced to discard cap.
In short, it doesn’t matter how pot commited a roster hole may make you feel, you have to have the discipline to fold the hand to live to fight another day. Invest in a Nurse hand like he’s Cale Makar and you will always be the short stack in the tourney.
The question is never how can we rationalize Nurse at any price? That’s a mugs game. The question is how can we best allocate $9,250,000 in cap space to acquire value contracts througout the roster?
The bridge contracts were poor business but you don’t double down on bad decisions. Once it was clear that Nurse’s camp was forcing a cap reallocation that would hamstring the team’s cap efficiency for years, you have to adjust your plan and reallocate elsewhere. Paying Heiskanen money for a Gudbranson trajectory is such poor management that I’m frankly amazed that some folks are still trying to justify an exceedingly dumb decision to this day.
To be fair to those folks, i still encounter people that tell me the Hall trade for Larsson was good business because it netted Lucic as well. Takes all kinds to make a world….
It’s worse than that. Nurse asked for less money than he got, and was ready to sign before the market was ‘set’
The timeline is:
Holland traded for Keith, did not make a deal that was normal for a cap dump for an old player and in fact paid extra
Which allowed Bowman to overpay Jones
Which set the last deal signed at over 9M. Neither player was worth that
Just because Bowman was stupid actually did not set the market. Just because one GM overpays a guy doesn’t dictate everyone else has to, and they don’t. That is just how Holland worked, he was too much on the player’s side not the team’s. He said it to media directly and indirectly. That is not acceptable
Nurse wanted in the 8 range it was reported. I’m sure a hard negotiator could have got him down from there. Everyone would be happier now for the GM having done the right thing by his team and position
Fully agree. It’s complete folly to let other GM’s signings dictate your own internal value assessments.
The original sin of the Nurse contract(s) was continuing to sign bridges. When you have a player that you have identified as foundational (ymmv as that pertains to Nurse) then you sign them long-term and pay the price.
If that means you sign him for $6.75 to $7.25m /year for 6-8 years in 20-21 then you do it. You deal with the Cap as needed at that point in time.
Even if that means you run a 19-20 man roster to make the Cap work then you do it. The actual difference from $5.6m is $1.15 to $1.65m. That much is doable.
Did they learn nothing from the Petry bullsh&t?
Bridge contracts usually mean an automatic loss of leverage (Petry goes UFA, for Nurse it was negotiating leverage) versus some risk of variance in play. If the player has proven to be otherwise good then the loss of leverage is only acceptable if the variance in play grossly outmatches (bad wording there but I hope you know what I mean) the contract paid out because of the loss in leverage.
So in 2020-21 it was:
— 6-8 years of $6.75 to $7.25m /year for a player who might top-out as a very good 2nd pair LHD but MAYBE YOU HAVE NOW UNDERPAID FOR A PLAYER BETTER THAN PROJECTED
versus
— trade of an okay 2nd pair with one-year to go
versus
— signing an okay 2nd pair for 4 to 5 years at $6m /year (remember – start of negotiation is at $5.6 so probably have to start higher) but MAYBE YOU HAVE OVERPAID TO PROTECT YOUR SUNK COSTS (something you really shouldn’t do but it happens all the time – see also Tyler Myers)
versus
— signing and excellent 2nd pair / workable 1st pair at $8m+
versus
— signing HoF capable 1st pair at $9m+
When you REALLY think about it, just take option 1. Short of Nurse being an absolute dog of a player compared to expectation (think Ceci… apologies to Ceci but he didn’t turn out as hoped) a contract of $6.75 /year for 5 to 6 years was the right play in 2020-21.
F&*king kills me.
Sorry, all these scenarios should be understood to be AFTER the two year bridge is up:
— trade of an okay 2nd pair with one-year to go
versus
— signing an okay 2nd pair for 4 to 5 years at $6m /year (remember – start of negotiation is at $5.6 so probably have to start higher) but MAYBE YOU HAVE OVERPAID TO PROTECT YOUR SUNK COSTS (something you really shouldn’t do but it happens all the time – see also Tyler Myers)
versus
— signing and excellent 2nd pair / workable 1st pair at $8m+
versus
— signing HoF capable 1st pair at $9m+
While I agree that a proactive longterm deal avoiding the loss of leverage via the bridge contracts was the optimal path, it still bears emphasizing that Holland compounded those errors significantly.
A core tenent for extracting value in a negotiation is knowing at which price you have to walk away. I’m not convinced Kenny ever had a walk away from the table number with Nurse.
Holland talked many times over the years about giving raises and having to ‘pay’ established players. I think years living in Detroit rubbed off on him. In pro sports in a capped league by definition you want to pay less if you can
You only pay more for the best, I don’t think he really got the cap, or that it doesn’t dictate anything but an upper and lower limit. If you need or want to do something and your capped out, you move cap. Happens all the time, it’s happening right now. He seemed to think he shouldn’t or couldn’t. Most players on the team are replaceable, it’s only elite skill players that aren’t
He bought out Neal to open cap.
He paid to get rid of Kassian to open cap.
He wouldn’t pay Kostin the cap he wanted and used his rights to move Yamamoto’s cap.
He trade Puljujarvi to create cap space.
I think kgo’s idea below of Nurse at wing is brilliant, so I am promoting it. It will never happen because of… path dependency?…. But that speed and size would translate well, a menace on the forecheck and in front of the net. His problem is defensive systems and decision-making but his toolkit is wonderful. Put him in a place to succeed: up and down the wing, his hands are no worse than Foegele’s, and his shot would be one of the hardest off the wing. A rebound producer and pouncer. The goals he does score off the rush now as a dman are beautiful, with some space he can pick corners. Plus we know he has the wheels to handle top minutes. He’s your Kane upgrade. I say a 2024-25 top six mix of:
Nurse McDavid Hyman
Nuge Leon Holloway
Can win you a Stanley Cup.
Suggesting Nurse on the wing is pure silliness. Suggesting that he be 1LW is absurd with zero chance of success.
Yea & Jesse Puljujärvi should’ve been a defenceman. . .
Maybe instead of just throwing the idea away people could suggest reasons why.
But Magnus Paajarvi should have been a defenceman!!
I agree but, from listening to Stauff, Ryan McLeod may be at risk. I’m not sure I would do it but it would depend on the aggregate moves and replacements. This player may not be what many what him to be but, at the end of the day, speed doesn’t slump and he is a, still improving, very good defensive player and PK guy with élite transition skills.
This is a player that is worth his cap hit and likely will never get a major raise unless he hits the 20 goal mark in a contract year, Foegele style.
Evander Kane is a disposition i would explore (acknowledging the NMC until March). I’m just not sure he is going to “get less hurt” going forward and that’s a solid cap hit for a player that is regressing in real time and has defensive issue. I like the person and I like the player – just not sure his top game is there any more.
Unless they can find a trade with retention in the next few days, I think the Campbell buyout is inevitable. I wouldn’t be against burying him for one more year, acknowledging the apx $3.8MM of dead cap on that.
I think a Ceci trade is very likely – perhaps for a 4th rounder. Would the Leafs want him? I don’t imagine Kulak is getting traded – Stauff said he’s not going anywhere.
I believe that Rodrigue should battle Pickard all season long for 2G but Stauff alluded to bringing in an organizational 3 like Copley.
What are the plans for Rodrigue?
There are too many reports that Vinny might get offered over $2MM for term so I imagine he is gone. I think Phil Kemp is likely the 7D, if he doesn’t win 3RD at camp – this depends on if both Ceci and Deharnais are gone and what replacement is in – Walker? Carrier?
Did we ever hear why E Kane was not put on LTIR, due to the hip injury?
Essentially they were still in “trying to make the playoffs” mode and feared that shelving Kane would cost them. While they could have used the LTIR space, that would also have a player acquisition cost for a team not guaranteed to make the playoffs and with empty cupboards. It’s not what most of us would have done but it was Holland “playing it safe”
I don’t think he ever had a hip injury – sports hernia and, nope, nothing official.
We can reasonably presume that it wasn’t a realistic option as the player likely wouldn’t have agree to it as he clearly wanted to keep playing and not be shut down, he was “able to play through” and clearly had doctors clear him to play.
McLeod is fast, but he wasn’t good defensively these playoffs. If they don’t just give him away I can live with a change to a more assertive player. That quote of him saying there are times it’s ok to play on the perimeter are not ok for me
I’m not sure why Kane is suddenly done but so many other injured players are defended. Nurse and Drai were both injured last playoffs and this one at critical times. Kane would have been good if he took treatment during the season, the timeline for his recovery fit for the playoffs. His arm will continue to improve as it’s nerve regrowth. He scored 24 goals. He takes care of himself it seems. He’s not done yet any more than any of the other guys are
Your probably right about Campbell. It’s a bad thing buying him out, so cap inefficient
Ceci just played in the SCF. He’s a right shot, not old, not expensive, sound defensively, he’s worth something even perhaps disposing of Campbell
I bet Pick wants to stay in the NHL, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s looking for that, we’ll see
You watched the Condors, is Vinny really better than Kemp? Is Kemp a worse skater and passer?
I think he was generally very good defensively in the playoffs but there were a couple of moments but his history tells us those are the exception including him being very good defensively in last year’s playoffs, right.
On that quote that you like to mention, lets not forget that mindset seems to be endorsed by the coach who has been very clear and express that hitting is not nearly as important as checking properly with their sticks and feet and staying within structure and position – its not quite the same as “staying the perimeter” as one needs to battle, of course.
I never said Kane is “done” but simply that I don’t think he is going to start to get hurt less going forward. He’s always been somewhat injury prone and, non unexpectedly, its getting worse and he turns 33 before next season – age regression and injury related regression (cumulative body tear) are a real thing here.
I am concerned about Drai and injuries going forward and I’m on record to preferring a 4-6 year contract. He’s also not comparable to Kane as a much higher tier player who has proven he can battle through and perform through injuries (except the latest one) and Nurse has the elite skating that helps.
If McLeod isn’t hitting on those checks then he needs to watch 1000 hours of Vegas 2023 and Florida 2024 play-off hockey – both those teams, when firing hot were awesome on the stick checking.
McLeod needs to get to awesome on the checking if he isn’t going to be physical.
While also scoring more and winning more faceoffs.
McLeod is still cheap. It would be a mistake to give up on him too early.
He’ll be 25 next season, I think we have him surrounded. This playoffs 2nd worst GF at 25%. If he still has value and I had a player in mind I’d make a move. Sitting on players too long and getting nothing for them has been an issue for years with the team. They need to get something for their expended assets, or you bleed out. He’s not going to change much even if he gets his D game back
No surprise that Holland is officially moving on from the org.
Jackson speaks at 11:30 but I don’t think there will be a “new GM announcement” as I think that would have been out there by now – not often is the new hire reveled at the presser, right?
I think Jackson will run the show as interim until he brings in his guy, whoever that may be.
————————–
I think I give Holland a solid B for his work.
He did exactly what he said he was going to do – stabilize the franchise and build a team that would be “in the tournament” with a chance to win year after year after year after year.
He did well to clean up the mess that Chiarelli left him (although they are still paying for Lucic with the Neal buyout) and he did well to make incremental improvements year after year while always being in a cap crunch.
Part of that cap crunch was the flat cap and part of it was being a contending team (they generally have cap issues) but part of it was his own mistakes. He made a few great trades and a couple fantastic signings and has 3 of the best value contracts in the league right now (Bouch, Hyman and Drai – plus Nuge) but the Kass contract lead to the Nurse bridge and subsequent over-pay plus Campbell.
At the same time, the effect of the loss of Klef and Larsson out of nowhere (and Klef on a massive value contract for term) cannot be over-stated.
The man worked hard and did a solid job – lots of good (and real good) and some legit bad (and real bad).
1 game away from the cup – lost by one goal in game 7 of the SCF.
Agreed on Holland. Solid B. He stabilized the organization
I think Jeff Jackson either has an internal replacement and is not telling anyone or we’ll see management by committee possibly into next summer. He hired Kalle Larsson quietly and out of nowhere and I would expect the new GM will be announced either today, right after Holland’s deal expires, or well down the road.
I had thought the former for a while but it seems not to be the case and it sounds like part of the issue is that the guys he has targeted are important part of other orgs and he won’t be able to talk to them for a bit.
Doesn’t sound like it will last in to next summer through as he said the new GM is a priority and there is no point in real contract talks with Drai until that person is in place.
A pretty fair assessment OP. Although Chiarelli actually implemented most of the stability before Holland arrived. The farm, a lot of it
To me the major thing that changed with Holland coming, as opposed to him creating it, was that he wouldn’t with his resume accept the job if there were people meddling. Why would he?
It ended the BoB and possibly owner interference that I think Chia had to deal with
Also, if Holland got blindsided by Klef and Larsson, that’s on him. Klef had ongoing issues, and if KH didn’t think Larsson might want a change that on him. Most GM’s would have been on top of it
Thank you for that.
To the last paragraph: (a) lots of players have major injury histories and don’t retire at like 27 and (b) from what I’ve read/heard, the Larsson camp gave no real indication that he wasn’t going to re-sign and there had been productive contract talks in the months leading up to that off-season – this was a blind-side late in the process (from what I’ve read/heard).
Agreed. Chiarelli left such a hole but the Klefbom loss was, arguably, the most impactful because of WHEN it happened.
Also, the Kassian contract… wow, just wow levels of bad there.
I think that Holland was too passive. He did that in Detroit with Datsyuk as well. Giving time is the right thing to do, but at some point not too close to when decisions have to be made the GM needs to know
Delete
My god that summer 2015 roster is bad – aside from the first round picks it’s an absolute wasteland – amazing work by MacT, Tambo and Lowe. Holland is Sam Pollock in comparison.
I still believe that Griffin Reinhart trade cost us multiple cups.
yeah, had we not had Chiarelli as GM, Boston would have traded us Dougie Hamilton as our offer was better but they weren’t helping him
The Nurse haters have been relentless since 2013.
The problem was/is Ceci. No minus games from Nurse in the playoffs once he was paired with a left shot D playing his offside who played most of the season in Bakersfield.
And Kulak’s play began degrading the longer he played with Ceci, after after a couple of weeks. Nurse has been dealing with the playing with that anchor for three seasons. Eventually drowning is inevitable when your partner is Cody Ceci.
Shoot Ceci into the sun.
Because the OIlers never got to Nurse Broberg during the regular season, they could never get to
Nurse Broberg
Kulak Desharnais
during the playoffs.
Which likely would have been the difference in shortening other series and less injury attrition to McDavid, Draisaitl, and Kane.
Agreed. Nurse needs a better babysitter than Ceci.
It’s interesting that anyone who wants to discuss the statistics around Nurse is labeled as a hater by you. Anyone who wants to discuss cap efficiency is labeled as a hater by you.
I don’t hate Nurse.
He has great tools that almost every defenseman in the league would kill to have.
But he’s now a decade on in his career, and he still doesn’t really know how to defend when the pressure ratchets up. He just doesn’t process the game as quickly as his feet can move.
No shame in that.
Saying that a 9.25 million dollar defenseman needs a better babysitter is pretty damning.
He’s the 4rth most valuable left shooting defenseman on the roster, when you taking into account cap efficiency.
If there is an option to move on from him, then the Oilers should do their due diligence. If he was on Vegas, they would have already moved him for a bag of pucks.
Nurse has a buyout proof contract with an NMC. Be a master of the domain of cap efficiency all you want. Go at it.
Sh###y attempt to put words in my mouth since I never said anything about buying out Nurse, anywhere.
Well, sail on Vernon Viking.
Not all will agree, but I think Ken Holland did a tremendous amount of good for the Oilers organization, both on and off the ice.
And so, so, close to his 4th Cup as a GM just a few days ago. All the best Old Dutch.
I agree.
How many GMs get fired the day after getting within 1 goal of a Stanley Cup?
A guy who brought us Hyman, Ekholm, Kane, RNH value deal, Janmark, Foegele. Sure there were misses too, but every GM has those.
Technically, not fired. His contract is lapsing and, at his age, they are moving on for hopefully a longer term fill for the position IMHO.
Holland bet on his old men instead of his youth, and lost.
You’re really continuing with the narrative?
Holland’s guys got to a one-game winner take all in the very last game of the NHL season and lost by one goal. That is so far from the picture you are continually trying to paint.
Hyman is a “fading asset”? Okie dokie.
To be fair, he probably won’t score 50 again (…probably), but he would have to fade a loooong ways to no longer be value at 5 mill a year
It’s official – Holland is done
Holland, Oilers mutually agree to part ways
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/ken-holland-informs-edmonton-oilers-he-will-not-return-next-season-1.2141004
Put Nurse on LW…with his speed and strength, and a shorter stick…he would be a menace in the corners and net front…then we can dump Kane and keep Kulak
I completely support this kind of out of the box thinking, especially D to wing. I don’t know why we don’t see it tested more often.
Imagine how many pucks would go off his ass or foot … into the opposition’s net for once (or 15 times).
I agree. I understand that players play their whole lives in a position, but it’s one of those things that makes so much sense, but won’t happen because: tradition? I don’t recall the circumstances of Brent Burns playing on the wing, but why couldn’t this work for Nurse? They have to find some way to increase the value produced by the player on the ice. Just felt like he was one of the least valuable D on the ice in the playoffs. Can’t have that if you want to win.
Very hard to rationalize the salaries for all D shown in 2015 above, except for Klef.
9 years ago Ben Scrivens was being paid almost as much as Skinner is now. Cray.
These past few months were grueling to watch. I cannot imagine the mental and emotional toll on the players. I sincerely hope the players get a good rest and break.
I’m not in the trade Kane camp. This player is the one you miss the instant he is moved. A sports hernia is crippling for a player of his type. If he can take the next few months and recover fully, he is invaluable to the middle 6 and his contract provides value. The Oilers need more Evander Kanes, not less.
He’s had a number of tough injuries lately that will impact his future performance.
I’m onboard with moving Kane
He will be 33 in August. Has never played a full season in his career. Injuries will continue to pile up with his style of play. Love the player type but they need effective speed on the wings. His boots are slowly filling up with cement. Time to move on.
Love the guy, but may be a case of better a year ealt than a year late on a move…
typo, should be a year early
Kane is an ageing power forward who is gonna break down frequently. If you have a chance to move him you got to take it
If he can take the next few months and recover fully, he is invaluable to the middle 6 and his contract provides value
Until his next injury though, right?
He’s got a long injury history and that has included his time as an Oiler. Even taking away the freak wrist injury, we are talking broken rib, finger issue last playoffs, sports hernia.
I don’t see him starting to be “less hurt” going forward.
Is Nurse providing value for his salary? No, but he is still a solid second pairing D. It was his 2020 bridge deal which is proving catastrophic.
In 2020 Josh Morrissey signed 8x$6.25 million, and in the LT sphere it was a general consensus that he was an excellent comparable at the time. Nurse at $6.25m changes things.
The moral of the story is to find room to sign core pieces long term rather than bridging them to their UFA years.
There was no reason to give nurse that contract. Bridge or no bridge.
The reason was intense pressure from every – and I mean every – corner.
Not many want to hear that Nurse’s 10.4% shooting pct that year was not repeatable.
They should have signed Nurse long instead of Koskinen.
Or waited a year to extend him and not paid for a career high floated by an unsustainable shooting percentage.
Moral of the story: don’t give Alex Chiasson 2.15mil to start the season and Zack Kassian 3.2mil right before bridging Nurse.
LT, I agree with your list of next steps. Give the kids a chance (cheaper, deserving), cull the herd (expensive, slowing).
Somebody asked Leon “the elephant in the room” question at yesterday’s presser. I think the other elephant in the room has to do with Darnell Nurse. Of the 6 D in Game 7 he had the least amount of ice time. Maybe he was playing with injury but I really think they were sheltering him as much as possible. How do you go forward with this situation? I don’t have the answer but this will continue to hamstring the Oil on both quality of play and Cap space. I hope they are looking real hard at alternatives.
Buying out his contract is interesting.
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/darnell-nurse
is that not a ton of dead cap until 2030 after a little reprieve next year?
His contract was purposefully structured to make it buyout proof.
But there are lots of bad contracts that other teams would trade for Darnell Nurse … imperfect players such as Couturier or Laine that may welcome a change of scenery. The Leafs might consider taking Nurse back in a package for Marner, with the Oilers flipping Marner to another team, and sending the assets back to Toronto, as well. Pittsburg and Karlsson is not out of the realm of impossible either.
NMCs are going to be waived this off-season.
While I don’t think that Nurse is there yet … he’s eventually going to get run out of town by fans and the media. He makes too much and his value to the club is diminishing every season. Passed by the newcomer Ekholm as the top defensive option, then passed by Bouchard as the top offensive option, he’s about to be passed by Broberg as well. There’s an argument that Kulak is more valuable to the team, when you consider the disparity in their contracts.
This will be the biggest test for Jackson and whoever his GM is going to be.
Can a team only buyout one player per year or could the Oil buy out Campbell AND Nurse?
The Oilers really don’t gain cap space buying out Nurse, and really don’t save any money.
Nurse’s contract is buyout proof. It is basically a fully guaranteed contract.
They save 19.4M of Cap over the next 3 years. They save 18.4M of Cap over the remaining 6 years of the contract. The numbers don’t agree with your comment.
Don’t know what the hell you are looking at.
A bought out Nurse in approximalelye $9 million against the cap for the first four years of McDavid’s and years 2-5 of Draisaitl’s Bouchard’s next contract,
Nurse has effectively the same cap hit in those four years whether he is bought out or not.
They can buyout as many as they want.
Of course, there is no realistic chance they are going to buy out Nurse (or Kane).
Nurse may drop his notrade contract to go home to Toronto area.Trade for Marner,and keep Marner,or trade him elsewhere.At least he only has only one year remaining on contract.You could trade him for picks,or cheaper players.We need two 6 million defencemen!
Marner also has a no movement clause,
Do you think he would waive it twice?
1) Marner is current more value for cap hit than Nurse
2) Nurse has 6 years left on this contract
Why are the Leafs doing this if Nurse is so overpaid on the cap?
Cult of Hockey’s 2024 playoffs individualcontributions/mistakes on Grade A shots even strength for the playoffs is alarming.
Major Mistakes per 15: Nurse 2.27. D-group worse, by far. The next closest was Vinny at 1.78. Before someone runs in to yell Ceci, it wasn’t all Ceci. It might not even have even been mostly Ceci. Ceci was at 1.33.
Grade A shots +/- per 15: Nurse -1.51. Vinny was -1.32 and Ceci was -.70.
The Oilers can’t afford to have this from their highest paid Dman.
I don’t know what’s going on with Nurse, or what the answer is, but at $9.2M per Nurse needs to be making his d partner better and not needing a $5-6M Dman to play with in order to keep his head above water, as has been suggested.
Link
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/storm-of-edmonton-oilers-insider-info-on-mcleod-perry-janmark-desharnais-campbell-fleury-and-others
If the dys can move Mikheyev, the Oilers can move Evander Kane. Best to do it this summer before the other 31 GMs get a glimpse of Evander in full decline next regular season. Get it done, Jeffrey Jackson.
I may have missed it, but didn’t hear anything from or about Nurse yesterday. The coach didn’t mention him as part of the list of injuries. I didn’t see him as one of the player avails either. Strange that an assistant captain wouldn’t be made available for end of year media avails.
makes me wonder what’s up
excellent point.
Could be a Leaf by the end of the week. Would not surprise me a bit.
The coach wasn’t offering up any information about injuries and wasn’t asked about Nurse.
The players that speak are those that are requested by the media – if they didn’t request Nurse, he wouldn’t come out.
It has nothing to do with him “not being made available”.