This is a fall 2017 look at WOWY for Oilers defenseman, with Connor McDavid (as always) as the pivot player. We didn’t have the gift of Puck IQ at that time, so we couldn’t use math to prove that Yohann Auvitu and Eric Gryba had strong w/o McDavid numbers because they played the soft parade. We can do that now. We can run a chart just like this using only minutes versus elites. It is revealing.
DEFENSEMEN WITH MCDAVID (PUCK IQ)
- Mattias Ekholm 66.9 DFF Pct in 263 minutes
- Evan Bouchard: 65.6 DFF Pct in 288 minutes
- Darnell Nurse 56.6 DFF Pct in 84 minutes
- Cody Ceci 54.1 DFF Pct in 74 minutes
- Brett Kulak 59.1 DFF Pct in 59 minutes
- Vincent Desharnais 57.8 in 53 minutes
- Philip Broberg 17.6 in 5 minutes
I can’t imagine an NHL coach seeing these numbers and then checking down to anything other than McDavid with Ekholm-Bouchard. The coach might have to split those two blue, but the gap is clear. Nurse-Ceci perform well with the captain, but you would need minimal falloff for the top pairing away from McDavid to justify it. Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais also look good, but who doesn’t when 97 is on the ice? A reminder we are dealing with small samples, so we need to be cautious. I think the trending suggests Ekholm-Bouchard is truly filthy and McDavid with Ekholm-Bouchard is the sweet spot for this team.
DEFENSEMEN WITHOUT MCDAVID (PUCK IQ)
- Mattias Ekholm 59.6 DFF Pct in 139 minutes
- Evan Bouchard 61.4 DFF Pct in 132 minutes
- Darnell Nurse 49.4 DFF Pct in 292 minutes
- Cody Ceci 50.1 DFF Pct in 254 minutes
- Brett Kulak 57.6 DFF Pct in 227 minutes
- Vincent Desharnais 49.3 DFF Pct in 219 minutes
- Philip Broberg 45.4 DFF Pct in 22 minutes
These are the totals I’d like to discuss today. Nurse-Ceci do solid work versus elites, sawing them off at about 50 percent in over 250 minutes. Brett Kulak shines like a diamond here, too. But the top pairing? Music! That’s incredible. It’s less than 200 minutes for each man but a coaching staff has to contemplate what to do with the second pairing when faced with those totals. Daniel wrote in yesterday’s comments section “The numbers suggest to me trying Kulak for an extended period of time as the second-pairing defender and that perhaps Kulak-Broberg is better option than Nurse-Broberg. Which leaves Nurse as a third pairing defender and penalty killer to pair with the best right-hand shot you can find” and that makes sense based on the (brilliant) Puck IQ totals. We don’t even have to worry about sample, as Kulak played 200+ minutes versus elites without McDavid.
MCDAVID WITHOUT (PUCK IQ)
- 97 without Ekholm 55.3 DFF Pct in 139 minutes
- 97 without Bouchard 55.1 DFF Pct in 126 minutes
- 97 without Nurse 63.3 DFF Pct in 322 minutes
- 97 without Ceci 64.1 DFF Pct in 325 minutes
- 97 without Kulak 62.5 DFF Pct in 356 minutes
- 97 without Desharnais 63.5 DFF Pct in 331 minutes
- 97 without Broberg 55.8 DFF Pct in 61 minutes
McDavid could run 50 percent against elites with the cast of Corner Gas playing defense. He’s just so good. A quick thanks to Puck IQ, a site that helps me understand hockey in a significant way not available elsewhere.
I have found myself recently having to describe the Oilers Cap alternatives in non virtual settings a lot, particularly in detail. it is exhausting, but it seems a good cause. This is what I have so far…
There are 19 players who are certain locks as we stand today. McD, Drai. Henrique, J Skinner, Nuge, Holloway, Janmark, Hyman, Arvidsson,Kane and Brown at F (11 total.)
Ekholm, Nurse, Kulak, Bouchard, Ceci and Broberg on D (6 total), and S Skinner and Picard in goal (2 total).
These 19 men have a combined Cap of 80,250,000. Add on buyout costs and previous bonus overages and our total payroll at this point in the calculation is 86,816,667 – give or take a couple bucks. that leaves only 1,183,333 based on the Cap of 88 m to get either 2 or 3 F, and 1 D on he roster depending on whether we intend to run either a 22 or 23 man roster. I think running a 21 man roster is off the books, happily.
now lets price out those 2 or 3 F and the 1 D based on current players under contract. I will list the 6 most expensive remaining (non-lock list) F and 4 most expensive remaining D as most likely to choose from just give a worst case scenario. the actual difference between the most expensive and the least(who are more often younger , less experienced and thus less likely to crack the roster in any event)
Forwards
Perry 1.15m
Berglund 950k
Ryan 900k
Jarventie 894,167
Stefan 870k
Grubbe 867.5k
The rest are less and the cheapest is 775k. So 2 or 3 F would about 1 m each or less, so add 2 or 3 m for forwards depending on 22 or 23 man roster. this brings us up to an overage of either 816,667(planning for 22 man roster) or 1,816,667(planning for 23 man roster) with 1 D still to include in our calculations.
Defense
Brown 1m
Akey 863,333
Wanner 828,333
Stecher 787.5k
the remaining D in our stable not yet accounted for are all priced at 775k.
I like Akey and Wanner real fine as prospects but they aren’t ready yet. So it is down to Brown or someone at under 800k. To be conservative let’s use the most expensive (Brown) at 1m. That puts our 22 man roster at 89, 816,667 for an overage of 1,816,667 – and our 23 man roster at 90,816,667 for an overage of 2,816,667.
none of our non lock list players make enough impact on the Cap to be moved solely for that purpose, as they still have to replaced to maintain the size of the roster at either 22 or 23 men.
So we have to create 1,816,667minimum in Cap room and run a 22 man roster, or
create 2,816,667 in Cap room and run a full 23 man roster.
Most efficient way to do it without disrupting combos and chemistry adversely is to move one player and replace him with a cheaper (1m or less player from our stable most likely)
So we need to move someone making either approximately 2.8 m for a 22 man roster or 3.8 on a 23 man roster, as their replacement will likely make around 1m or less.
Candidates are Kane @5.125m (forward) or Kulak@ 2.75m (defense) or Ceci@3.25m (defense). That’s it
If we move Kulak with out taking back or retaining salary, we can make it by a hair on a 22 man roster. Not my favored route, as Kulak is fairly priced for the value he brings to the roster and while it would likely elevate Broberg to 3 LD, we start getting terribly thin in depth in case of injury. OUCH
Even worse is if we move Ceci with no other moves, in a way. While his Cap savings more than covers the overage on our current 22 man roster projections, it is not enough to come close to allowing us to run a 23 man roster. it means Broberg moves to his offside and in the top 4 as a RD and we elevate either a lesser or less experienced player to 3 RD. LD stays intact but RD is really weakened and getting a better one would be a relatively more expensive proposition that we wouldn’t likely have the resources to do in season or at the trade deadline in any case. OUCH OUCH
The best option hinges on Kane. If his aggregate injuries from the past couple of years predicate it, season long LTIR fixes this neatly, and creates a viable opportunity to upgrade on D as well- running a 23 man roster. LTIR creates difficulties in trade deadline moves as you don’t accrue Cap space from the LTIR player per se. but if he goes to LTIR it effectively gives us either 2.325m usable space (22 man roster) or 1.325m usable space (23 man roster). Add that to Ceci’s Cap of 3.25M and you have some very good walking around money to upgrade Ceci before the season starts. that’s a shopping budget of 4.575 or 5.575m depending on 22 or 23 man roster.
If Kane is willing and is traded, we can elevate a worthy kid from the farm for the bottom 6 if we want to run a 23 man roster, or not elevate or add another forward at all if we run a 22 man roster. THEN we have the Cap to shop for a higher end RD very well and still have Cap space to accrue if we can. Either LTIR or trading Kane makes great sense for us I would think, compared to the other options.
Here are a list of current RD league wide from 3.25 to 11 M Cap hit to suggest targets. I chose a high top end in case the other team has a need to retain to get out from an onerous(for them) salary. Ideally we find a trade partner who has enough RD depth they are willing to trade down to Ceci to alleviate the crunch and, if Kane is willing to allow a trade might need to add some tough skill to their forward corps. YMMV.I omitted anyone of 34 or older
Player Cap Age Team
Connor Clifton 3.333m 29 BUF
Justin Holl 3.4m 32 DET
Scott Mayfield 3.5m 31 NYI
David Savard 3.5m 33 MTL
Matt Dumba 3.75m 30 DAL
Alex Carrier 3.75m 27 NAS
Noah Dobson 4 m 24 NYI
Erik Gudbranson 4 m 32 CBJ
Adam Larsson 4 m 31 SEA
Nick Jensen 4.05m 33 OTT
Brandon Carlo 4.1 m 27 BOS
John Marino 4.4 m 27 UTA
Connor Murphy 4.4 m 31 CHI
Josh Manson 4.5 m 32 COL
Rasmus Andersson 4.55m 27 CAL
Artem Zub 4.6m 28 OTT
Dylan DeMelo 4.9m 31 WPG
Rasmus Ritsolainen5.1m 29 PHI
Erik Cernak 5.2 m 27 TB
Brett Pesce 5.5m 29 NJD
Matt Roy 5.75m 29 WAS
Neal Pionk 5.875m 29 WPG
Ryan Pulock 6.15m 29 NYI
Ryan Ellis 6.25m 33 PHI
Damon Severson 6.25m 29 CBJ
Justin Faulk 6.5m 32 STL
Colton Parayko 6.5m 31 STL
Brandon Montour 7.143m 30 SEA
Filip Hronek 7.25m 26 VAN
Aaron Ekblad 7.5m 28 FLA
Jacob Trouba 8 m 30 NYR
Dougie Hamilton 9 m 31 NJD
Cale Makar 9 m 25 COL
Seth Jones 9.5m 29 CHI
Charlie McAvoy 9.5 m 26 BOS
Adam Fox 9.5 m 26 NYR
Some interesting targets are there, if the circumstances provide….
Do I have this about right? What do you think of this exercise? Any names you would add or omit and why?
Sorry for writing War and Peace. Once I get going on a train of though, it’s hard to disembark until I reach the station…..😜
Couple things come to mind.
You assumed the values of the extensions for Holloway and Broberg, but didn’t list them in your calculations on the cap.
No mention of Lavoie as a possible farm worker for a call up, but listed four players who are all but certain to not play NHL games for EDM this year. On defense you list Akey and Wanner (both of whom I’m rooting for and a fan of) but neglect Gleason (experience playing on RD), Kemp (actual RD), and Dineen. Hoefenmayer, even, has more to recommend him as a call up this season than Akey and Wanner.
The big list of RD from other teams should omit any player who was just traded or recently signed a new UFA deal/contract extension (IE Montour, Zub, Hronek, Carrier, Pesce, etc), and didn’t take into account players publicly known to be unwilling to play here (IE Larsson, Trouba, etc), and franchise level players unattainable without trading the likes of Draisaitl (McAvoy, Makar, etc). Then there’s the guys who are slow, overrated, overpaid, or one dimensional that should be deleted from serious consideration (IE Gudbranson, Savard, Jones, Faulk, Ristolainen, Murphy, etc). That will diminish your list to about 1/3 or less of the candidates listed.
It can also be trimmed by eliminating players on teams that are hoping to make the playoffs since there is nobody tradeable from our team who would increase their chances of doing that given the dearth of top 4 RD on any one team these days.
This is how we end up with the very short list we have been chipping away at since FA slowed to a standstill. 😇
I would think that any manager worth his salt will be able to market Ceci to a team looking for a change. He’s got decent numbers, top-4 by usage most of his career (confirmation bias/appeal to authority), solid pro, good in the room, etc. Good teams sometimes make moves to find the right pieces/fit to take the next step instead of the best players on paper. Or something to that effect…
On the other hand. Bad teams have good players.
Ceci for Provorov with $1.5MM retained? It’s not outlandish… they do have Jack Johnson on their roster, after all. New GM looking forward and wanting to shake things up, isolate top prospects from too much pressure, etc.
There are others out there. I mentioned Fowler and York the other day as examples.
Actually Broberg and Holloway ARE included in those Cap numbers at a combined hit of 2.3m. Sorry if that was not clear. The unmentioned by name farm workers are
all less pricey than the more expensive ones mentioned, and at those price ranges actually make things marginally better. I used the more expensive ones to gauge a worst case scenario for Cap dollars. One of them making it improves the cap space in a small way, but not enough to affect our choices of outcomes. Additionally, this uses indirectly a good gauge for an outside sourced addition to the roster, if it s done that way. The players you mention are all included in the unnamed lower priced options – most at 775k
I didn’t have time to suss out contract status for the list of replacement RD, as well as other factors. that list I show is meant to show we have an open field to obtain pretty much any under 34 RD if the opportunity presents itself. that is why I ask for your input on which names to exclude from that RD list, as it is quicker work for many hands than if I have to do it all.
I hope the hive mind can help me reduce the list in stages. i would suggest the first filter we apply is, irrespective of other factors, are they a reasonable upgrade in skill on Ceci? If they are too slow, are on a fast descent on the age curve and not likely to sustain, or have other mitigating skill factors like general hockey IQ that leaves them a clear lateral or worse move, omit them and we have list B. Once we have that list, we check into current contact status. Eliminate recently traded/extended/signed players as not likely to be moved. eliminate the obvious franchise player darlings as well, as you say. Be aware when deciding to eliminate any player of appropriate actual skill level if there there is a possibility that the team currently holding them is under some kind of Cap crunch and may be motivated to save cap by swapping for Ceci (and possibly Kane in a package if they also need tough skill). More steps are likely needed, but to be expected. I leave that task in your capable hands, my friends.
The primary argument for proposing Kulak as second pairing defender for an extended period of time in place of Nurse is his DFF% fancies from the ’23-’24 season (thanks Lowetide).
PuckIQ ’23-’24 5v5 DFF%RC
(Dangerous Fenwick for percentage relative to teammates for specific level of competition)
ALL
Bouchard 9.20 DFF%RC (1451 TOI)
Ekholm 7.50 DFF%RC (1360 TOI)
Kulak -2.00 DFF%RC (1156 TOI)
Desharnais -4.10 DFF%RC (1048 TOI)
Nurse -5.10 DFF%RC (1413 TOI)
Ceci -6.60 (DFF%RC 1321 TOI)
Elites
Bouchard 13.00 DFF%RC (462 TOI)
Ekholm 11.30 DFF%RC (446 TOI)
Kulak 2.80 DFF%RC (315 TOI)
Desharnais -6.20 DFF%RC (303 TOI)
Ceci -9.30 DFF%RC (391 TOI)
Nurse -9.60 DFF%RC (427 TOI)
Objections to this proposal from the comments include:
1. It has already been tried unsuccessfully.
2. Nurse will perform better if paired with McDavid.
Regarding the first objection, (it has already been tried unsuccessfully) this would have been in the ’22-’23 season. Although many of the characters are the same, the defensive script from the ’23-’24 season is completely different than the previous season. In other words, no it hasn’t been tried before. Reasons include: the addition of Ekholm, the subtraction of Berry, the emergence of Bouchard as a number one, the progression of Desharnais. These in addition to deployment changes brought by Knoblauch and Coffey, and a switch in systems to a more zone-oriented defence.
As mentioned by Lowetide, there’s little to no chance of the Oilers breaking-up Ekholm-Bouchard and their relationship as a five man unit with the first line. It’s a very powerful combination that’s been extremely successful.
These changes are visible in these deployment charts which show OZS% on the abscissa, DFF% on the ordinate and TOI in bubble size for levels of competition (excluding “gritensity” for a cleaner view).
The deployment of Bouchard and Ekholm with the first line has created a pairing of defenders with a DFF% greater than 60 percent, which performs at that level for 17 to 18 minutes a game of 5v5. The mean for regression for this pairing seems to be around 60 percent, while all of the other defenders regress in the range of 50 to 55, including Nurse, Ceci, Kulak and Desharnais.
Bouchard-Ekholm were an order of magnitude better than any other defenders. However, of the other defenders clustered around 50 to 55, Kulak seems to be the strongest.
The DFF% metric suggests that he has best adapted to the changes brought by Coffey and Knoblauch. Kulak was better against elites than Nurse both with and without McDavid. Which brings us to the second objection (sample size warning – restated in relative format from the blog entry above).
DFF%RC Elites with McDavid
Nurse 0.20 DFF%RC (83.9 TOI)
Kulak 5.67 DFF%RC (55.2 TOI)
DFF%RC Elites without McDavid
Nurse -10.01 DFF%RC (292 TOI)
Kulak 1.15 DFF%RC (227 TOI)
Elks win! Elks win! It’s an August long-weekend miracle. Put in Tre Ford (who was 18 out of 22) and the team wins. Who knew?
NYR wants/has to deal Trouba. He’s a dink, perfect
Problem is Trouba’s wife Kelly is a doctor. Perhaps, given the U of A is a class institution and he doesn’t want to move because of her career, it could be enticing to her
If so given how bad Rangers need his cap space with their expensive D and UFAs next year, they could pay for a retention
Don’t think they have to.
They are $600K under the cap with a 23 man roster.
Ryan Lindgren just signed a one year team friendly deal to help out.
However they reportedly have been trying to trade Trouba for months so likely would still like to but the price could be dear.
Wouldn’t it be a cap dump? They pay for retention 3rd party. Say San Jose. The premise is U of A appeals to her. It’s an excellent university and Trouba is under pressure from NYR, who aren’t in control here but need him off the books. Ceci is on an expiring contract
Depends on Kelly, she studies epilepsy and has it, not sure how good that department is at the U. This is how you get better players for cheap
They don’t have to but next summer they want that done
To my recollection, he was vocal about wanting to play for a US team, especially in or near NYC when he was on the outs in WPG.
Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/article-jacob-trouba-says-he-wanted-to-play-in-us-so-fiancee-could-pursue/
Source: https://www.foreverblueshirts.com/former-ny-rangers-gm-sounds-off-jacob-trouba-mess/
The above blog article also went on to say:
Even if NYR retained 50%, $4MM is a lot to pay for a physical player — on the decline, mind you — who is has no interest in being in EDM. He’s also not the most available player, being often injured (see: style of play, and now, age), averaging something like 65-ish games a season.
There are better targets.
The NY Post said in the recent article quoted below that they tried to trade him with $2.5MM retained, which wouldn’t work to get him on the roster with Ceci going the other way. Further (emphasis mine):
A crucial nugget being that his wife can only complete her residency at the hospital where she’s doing her residency. So that limits the other teams to NYI and NJD.
Source: https://nypost.com/2024/07/01/sports/wifes-hospital-residency-among-factors-keeping-jacob-trouba-with-rangers/
Ok that ends it
Maybe
I hate nested comments
And emails
Puck iq isn’t too bad and he’s 30 and way better than incumbents. And adds the snarl they need
This was suppose to be Nurse but you cant treat aggression unless you question his manhood.
Trouba’s not coming here.
If Stecher wasn’t goitered after being acquired I bet we would have seen in playoffs
Ek Bouch
Nurse Stecher
Kulak Bro
With Des and CC sitting
If Stecher was healthy, the Oilers probably would have lost to Dallas, since they never would have gotten to Broberg.
Or, if you see it that way, Stecher could have played with Kulak
They weren’t taking Ceci out.
Because they couldn’t. He was not playing well so demoted him
I am glad in the new direction JJ seems to be taking the team. I had a look, and there are ~48 players under 180 lbs with some type of NHL careers going, out 736. That’s 6.5%
Pretty low odds, and should be avoided unless they are really high skill players, which Savoie is. He will also get over that with more training
It’s the fight in the dog that counts for fowards. Foegele at 6’2” and McLeod as 6’3” had size but they were scared of their own shadow in the corners.
I think the lesson here is the meanest 7 pound dog is screwed in any fight against a bigger dog
But point taken
Stan Johnathan scored 27 goals in 68 games in 1977-78 if we had anything close to that player we win the cup. The Kane injury was the difference it allowed Bennett, Lomberg and the weasel open season on our skilled players.
Projected roster, 70 833 in cap space, no LTIR, 23/23
53 97 18
93 29 33
91 19 28
13 10 55
Philp
90
Of course hoping Philp can get going early and earn his way up and spell off Ryan. That’s a deep forward group, and if everyone adopts Perry’s team first attitude, golden. i am a bit worried Kane might not like it, but KK mixes things up, and playing a nasty team I would slide him up with Connor, Skinner to line 2, Nuge line 3
Let’s try OP’s change up
25 2
14 86
27 51/44
I think we’d notice better puck moving on all pairs which should help that crazy F group attack and produce, and Ek with Bro I think would help his confidence, especially speaking Swedish on the ice which would be easier for Bro. As OP said Nurse has done well with Connor. I also think Stecher has more game than many do and could spell Bro off if necessary at 2RD. I also like having Brown available for teams that need some push back
We’re talking a tiny sample of 8:52, but Ek Stecher may have some chemistry. 5v5:
CF% 70
FF% 72.22
SF% 69.23
xGF% 75.78
HDCF% 71.43
1-0 Goals
That is not shabby. I also like Stecher being with a big partner. If Florida can win a cup with the D group they had, this can work and I like it better anyway. It’s more mobile and more decent or better puck movers
Checking further into 5v5 goals scored, Line 1 should be 53/91 97 18, Line 2 53/91 29 28 and Line 3 should be 93 19 33, Brown pre injury was a better 5v5 scorer than Arvi, hopefully recovers his game fully. I don’t know that I want to lose Arvi’s sandpaper on line 2 though, against some teams anyway
Both Skinner and Kane are better 5v5 scorers than Nuge, he should be line 3. I think Connor would benefit from another shooter, he doesn’t need help playmaking. He needs players to get open and finish, cause distractions, and sometimes to push back when liberties are taken
It must be a foregone conclusion that Ceci is moved. If that’s the case, then there might be another Dman to add to the mix. There is another option though, they could put 86 & 2 together, 14 & 5 and 25 & 44 or 51. It sure is a shame about their $9.25M defenseman, however.
It would also be a shame to split up 14 & 2
OMG I forgot Kulak unless he’s traded away along with Ceci.
Needless to say, Kulak could slide in alongside Brown or Stecher also. But where does that leave Nurse?
They have 3 LD and 3.5 RD. They don’t need to replace Ceci right away, or at all if Bro or Stecher are good enough. If they keep Ceci he is going to end up 3RD and given the cap crunch that is not smart. To many Ceci isn’t very good top 4 anymore, to me it’s not a loss that no one else can cover
As OP said, maybe Nurse Bouch will work and Ekholm can mentor Bro. As I posted Ekholm Stecher had some scorching numbers in a small sample. They can platoon
But to me they have to change the group some, it doesn’t work in playoffs
I guess Nurse can’t mentor Broberg ?
You see I just wouldn’t split Ek & Bouchard.
Possible destinations for a RS D, there aren’t many it seems:
Montreal. 5.452M in cap, 23/23. For established RD they have Savard. Then Justin Barron who hasn’t made full time yet, and was sheltered last season, and Wideman UFA who DNP last season
Pittsburgh. 3.524M in cap, 23/23. They have Karlsson 34 and Letang 37. They really need some RD backup
San Jose. 12.77M in cap, 24/23. They have Rutta, Emberson who isn’t established, and Benning who played 14 games last season
Leafs. 1.275M in cap, 21/23. They have Tanev, Liljegren who can’t stay healthy, and Timmins who hasn’t established. They need help but would have to work the cap. The Oilers can’t retain for a top 4 D (by usage) at 3.25M
Winnipeg. 5.8M in cap, 23/23. They have Pionk and Demelo, and Miller who hasn’t played full time for more than one season in Dallas 22/23
There are some trade partners. If it was Ceci, they are cap compliant with 845 833 in cap and 22/23. They can start at 22 and get a player under that up later or send down and move up. Of course we don’t know Kane’s status, but if they want to keep him they could not LTIR him and try to accumulate some cap space
I think that’s the way to proceed. Try Bro at 2RD, and if not Stecher, and if neither work well enough figure something out. I think it would make the team better, I don’t see it as being very risky because we know the status quo isn’t good enough. And the cap, teams have to do things like this because of it. I would try to not send him to San Jose out of courtesy, unless he wanted to because of Celebrini or something
There’s also potentially (JP’s guy) Will Borgan and Adam Larsson in Seattle if they don’t make it.
Buffalo has Jokijarju.
Calgary has Mr. Andersson.
Hey, to be fair, I brought up Borgen last year as a target of interest prior to the trade deadline.
On the other hand, I’m only mildly (at best) and glacially warming on Andersson even if I think he’s about as likely to end up here as Larsson. Though thinking about it in that context, I’d rather RA than AL for several reasons.
I understand the premise of the first line but, when you look at the next chart, the d-men without McDavid minutes, a real discussion ensues.
For month I’ve been saying that Even Bouchard is an elite 2-way d-man, bordering on, if not already, top 5. Part of the reason is that his numbers hold when away from McDavid (and when away from Ekholm). Of course, the sheer goals for and point rates will go down when away from McDavid but the goal shares and underlying metrics hold, often near 60%.
Given how Bouchard and Ekholm/Bouchard tilt the ice away from McDavid, I am in favor of a couple of experiments
1) switch the 5-man unit and give the Nurse pairing more McDavid minutes – Nurse has a long history of success with McDavid and this might balance.
2) Play Nurse/Bouchard and Ekholm/Broberg – Bouchard floats all boats and Ekholm should be a great partner/mentor for Broberg as he was for Bouchard.
I prefer option 2.
In any event, Bouchard does not need to be with Ekholm and he does not need to be with McDavid. He’s elite 2-ways and drives on his own.
Of course, anything experimented with can be revered back to default at any moment, right?
I would try it. Bouch has grown enough he may not implode defensively with Nurse
They need more push outside of their best line and D pair. Have for years. They need to get to where the old Oilers did, coming in wave after wave, line after line, either offensively or physically. It tires the other team as defending takes more energy, and it tires them mentally being under constant pressure
I really like Bouchard, if you’re a fan of that type of player, I think it would be hard not to.
One thing that I would be curious about is how Bouchard does without Ekholm and Mcdavid. I am not saying that Bouchard isn’t a top notch player but I would caution the “does not need to be with Ekholm and he does not need to be with Mcdavid” talk if we are separating the pairings and potentially looking at moving him away from Mcdavid away as well.
Ekholm is phenomenal at what he does and taking away both of his support systems in a sense for offensive success would be a worry for me, I am not saying he couldn’t do it, just that I don’t have the numbers on what it looks like without both. Then again I’m not sure he has played a significant number of minutes without both to even get a tell in the last year.
Bouchard played 153 minutes at 5 on 5 this season away from both McDavid and Ekholm and, while he was only 50% goal share, his expected goal share was 63% and he was materially positive in all underlying metrics……
https://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8480803&p3=8475218&p4=0&p5=0
Bouchard’s problems defensively do not come from the normal run of play. They come from mental mistakes. The advanced stats will be fine, but it is a flat distribution with big fat tails. The problem is not the mean. It is the fat left tail.
Bouchard’s problems defensively have been all but developed away.
Big minutes against top comp through he playoffs and very few big mistakes.
Then put him with Nurse and find out.
A point often missed. Stats are aggregate and don’t explain those mistakes
I have often called it egregious errors. The Oilers have been sunk by them many times
Strudwick said that some players never get it, you can’t coach it out. GM needs to replace those fellas
This is what pre-season is for. To get an idea.
If it shows promise the next step is to take the new combinations for a drive to start the regular season and assess again.
Of course this all depends on how the rest of the summer plays out. They still have cap issues to deal with & defence looks to be the area most likely to see a change in personnel.
Exactly. This is just a whole lot of spit balling.
Bouchard is NOT an elite defender, arguably barely adequate. Neither was Larry Murphy. One wants to keep him as far away from a role that demancs defending. One wants to put Bouchard in a role where he is mostly pushing the play forward. Maximize his offense.
To maximize Bouchard and minimize his weaknesses, it is nuts to play him with Nurse. That is the worst place to play him. And it is bad for Nurse too. Nurse needs to play with a competent defender to maximize Nurse.
So… barring a trade are you deployment something like the following?
Broberg Bouchard
Ekholm Nurse
Kulak Ceci/Stetcher
Disagree completely on Bouchard.
He is elite at defending the rush and the zone entry – often creating offense with great timing on the step up and a great stick.
He is elite at retrieval (lack of urgency gone) and transitioning the puck out.
He is no longer week along the boards – all d-men lose battles here and there but he is no longer exploited.
He can get caught in no-man’s land with the down low play and needs to continue to work on tying up the man/or the stick in front but they are coming.
I provide substance to the opinion that he is a good defensive d-man, you retort with “no he isn’t, barely adequate” without any substance except for “mental mistakes” – no substance.
Like I said earlier. The problem with Bouchard or Larry Murphy is not the mean of the distributioin. The mean is exceptional. The problem is the big fat left tail.
One has to deploy them to minimize left tail events.
I don’t agree either. Bouch still enters vapour lock, but it’s far less and he mostly defends well. Second only now to Ehholm. But yes it does still happen
Bouchard also has some edge to him I’m very happy to see. He was taking no crap these playoffs and that will help his confidence and defense I think
You keep saying it but it doesn’t mean anything substantive.
I think you are trying to say “his mistakes are big ones” and this has been true but, of course, Bouchard’s penchant for the big/egregious mistakes has vastly declined – he makes less egregious plays than Nurse, for example but, really, all the d-men.
NHL players and executives were polled on the top 10 defensemen (and honourable mentions).
https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/39512945/ranking-nhl-top-defensemen-players-vote-best-2023-2024
That article is from February, Bouchard has added significantly to his resume since then.
So have others and there is another crop of elite prospects on the way.
Not a single d-man in the league has added more to his resume since February than Evan Bouchard.
Gustav Forsling has a cup ring.
So does Aaron Ekblad.
So does Dmitri Kulikov.
Just a ridiculous point that adds nothing to the conversation.
Don’t take the bait – the troll is such a desperate a-hole
I hope the coaches bump Nurse to the 3rd pair to see if it motivates him to bust out of his mid career slump or causes the water to get so nasty playing 3rd pair he asks management to be traded.
I completely disagree with this approach. These are Babcock, Keenan tactics that today’s player will not support anymore. Thank goodness!
Nurse can be a solid 2-3-4 defensemen on any team in the NHL. The management, coaches, and Nurse have to find the combinations to make that work, consistently.
In yesterday’s blog, the questions was asked about KHL RHD UFA’s, the player who has been on my radar for couple of season has been Nicholas Mattinen.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=172674
I really think there is a potential considerable player here. However, he went back to the TML this season, the team that drafted him and then gave up on him.
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2024/04/15/eight-years-later-the-maple-leafs-take-a-flyer-on-former-draft-pick-nicolas-mattinen/
Perhaps his skating isn’t up to AHL/NHL levels. Toronto has been so weak at RD. Maybe he wasn’t flashy enough for Dubas
Good straight line skater, not great edges.
Very good passer, with some additional offensive tools, which intrigues me.
I think his is likely a better player than Vinny is.
Thanks. Vinny is fairly puck challenged at times. Ideally they can build a D group that has more saltiness, but for a team with forwards like the Oilers getting the puck back and up well quickly is job #1
To me the extended D zone time was because 2 and 3RD couldn’t do that well enough. It makes it easier for the forecheck when they know if they cut off the pass or pressure the better D it will likely stay in the zone. And that leads to breakdowns
Kulak is a very good third pairing D, and a subpar 2nd pairing D. He has never succeeded in a 2nd pairing role in his entire career.
The Oilers claim to be a contender. It is 100% clear where Kulak should be slotted.
Nurse has play 35-40% against elites most of his career almost always with a partner with flaws.
He is a legit top 4D.
Kulak with Ceci was a hell of a lot more leaky than Kulak with Desharnais, in a 3rd pairing role.
Nurse and Ceci, before Ekholm, got a lot more ice time with McDavid, and that camoflaged Ceci’s inemptitude.
The OIlers need a significant upgrade for one of the right D positions, and Broberg can handle the other spot on RD.
It will be tough to win the Stanley Cup next year rolling Ceci out again in the lineup in the playoffs.
The problem became completely clear with the loss to Vegas.
Kulak is too good to give up unless a sure thing is coming back on the right side, and it means one then has to get two right side D better than Broberg on the right, instead of only one.
This all day long. Kulak is also insurance as a stop gap for an injury. He can help in a pinch.
He also helped killing penalties in the playoffs when called on.
Oiler’s were very fortunate last year not to run into injury problems during the season. Can’t bank on that holding out forever.
I don’t think bringing up the PK in the playoffs is an argumetn for Kulak (or against Ceci).
Lets not forget that Ceci played the second most PK minutes among the D and wasn’t on for a single goal against. He was 2-0 goals in 54 minutes.
Ekholm was 0-3 goals in 69 minutes.
Kulak was 0-1 goals in 23 minutes.
Broberg was 2-0 goals in 15 minutes.
On behalf of PuckIQ, you’re welcome sir.
It was in the comments section of this blog, during an argument about QoC that the idea on how to measure QoC was hatched and the original partnership with Gmoney and myself formed.
Thank you for having this blog and this site and for fostering quality discussions about what actually matters in the game and how to measure it.
Hey Woodguy. You guys gave us a scare when PuckIQ went dark for a bit!
Hamster wheel in the cpu broke
We don’t monitor it closely so if its down ping me on twitter
Will do
I thought it was down for superman Zsolt to fix the BSOD CrowdStrike outage.
Nurse needs a better partner, he has been pinned to Cece for the last few years. When we lost Larson we downgraded to Ceci (at an AAV savings).
I have said this a few times this off season’s most important task, was to sign a quality 2RHD for Nurse.
Given where we are now, I believe the best move going forward is.
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Broberg
Kulak-Stecher
Cece has to go in a trade for picks/prosoect to make the cap work.
For me it’s how many times and playoffs do they have to watch guys struggle and hold the team back to get it? Thankfully 3 are now gone. Can’t do it again, it’s not fair to Connor or us fans when it’s so obvious
Ceci has gone from 1RD in the playoffs, to 2RD in the playoffs to 3RD in the playoffs.
I can’t say with any certainty but I would suggest that Connor McDavid sure doesn’t think having Ceci as the 3RD on his team is unfair.
Well then we’ll have it have his back because there is just too much evidence he doesn’t do what they need and it’s too cap in efficient which affects Connor and everyone
CC has a place in the league it’s just not Edmonton anymore
Ceci does not “have to go” in a trade to make the cap work. Its an option but it isn’t a must and that downgrades the lineup for sure.
I love Stecher as the 7D/4RD, he’ll end up playing lots of games but there is nothing real to think that he’s an upgrade on Ceci (except for contract value) and this lineup has the team one blocked shot away from Stecher at 2RD and Josh Brown playing nightly.
I’m not sure Stecher holds up for 82 games and a 2-month playoff run – he’s the “type of d-man” that often gets, well, crushed in the playoffs, right?
We have no idea yet who they are. Not sure why JJ would sign them if he thought they were deficient, it’s out of line with the rest of his work with players
Also, Ceci has not done well for the Oilers outside of a half year three seasons ago. It’s just as valid to say Stecher is as good. CC has positive reg season fancies, but they are so far behind Ek Bouch it’s not good. To say it’s because no McDavid is saying Drai isn’t a top player. Nurse as well but I think Nurse has more range
And he can’t succeed in playoffs so nothing else matters . Try something different
Nurse & Brown might be a solid shutdown pair. Two big boys that can skate and pound people.
Not sure why people keep blaming Nurse’s partners?
That was tried the year prior though.
Kulak was 45.6% DFF% and 10-14 goals (41.7%) in 290 minutes against elites (this is total, I didn’t suss out the McDavid minutes).
That 2nd pair performance by Kulak is why Ekholm is an Oiler.
Nurse that year was 49.1% DFF and 24-19 goals (55.8%) in 529 minutes against elites, FWIW.
This is a better team.
Sure, the 24-25 Oilers > 23-24 Oilers > 22-23 Oilers.
How would that impact a Kulak over Nurse choice at 2LD?
Better players float all boats. If Kulak is performing better than Nurse, and the numbers above (w/o McDavid) suggests that is the case, then performing in front of a Nuge-Draisaitl-Arvidsson line should raise those totals. I’m not anti-Nurse, I am pro math.
I guess I’m questioning whether the larger math sample indicates Kulak has performed better than Nurse.
I don’t think it does, though I am certainly also in favor of whatever alignment makes the team better.
Against what competition?
Kulak typically plays against weaker competition than Nurse. He’s supposed to look good in that context.
I’d like to know who he was playing with in those elite minutes. 22/23 5v5 his most common partner was Barrie 540 TOI and they ended up 52.5 GF%
Then Des 242 TOI 59.09 GF%
Then Bouch 219 TOI 35 GF%
I think he’s like Nurse. He needs a solid complimentary partner against elites and mids. Which is like most players. Kulak can carry a lesser partner 3rd pair. Basically it always comes down to skate well pass well and play fast enough, which Kulak usually can. The one caveat is ogres like Zadorov can sometimes put up decent numbers despite being slower
These things I don’t think Des and Ceci are good enough at, and it sinks pairs eventually
As most have alluded to, its tough to accept Kulak “being better than” Nurse, recency bias aside.
As JP pointed out, Kulak wasn’t able handle 2LD back in 2022/23 and, while the Oilers do have a better team now as LT points out, Nurse was the 1LD on that team.
Nurse struggled since the all-star break, in particular in the playoffs, but we have a long history that makes it unlikely that Kulak has come close to passing Nurse on the depth chart.
We aren’t talking value for contract here, we are talking on-ice impact and ability.
Matt Benning had great numbers and looked good on the 3rd pairing.
I figure Ekholm is 1LD & Nurse 2LD & Kulak 3LD. While Broberg could be 1LD or 2LD or 3LD or 2RD, maybe even 3RD. Intersting scenario.