Until the team drafted Sam O’Reilly and then dealt for Matthew Savoie, the Edmonton Oilers prospect pool was as poor as I can remember. And I remember. Believe me. Prospects are important, and good ones, legit ones who look like they are on an NHL trajectory on arrival are vital. Sam O’Reilly is one of my favourite player types. Why? He is a center, and has a range of skills. He can make the NHL even if one or two things slip away. An astute selection by an organization that needed just this thing.
I don’t use NHLE much anymore, it’s a good indicator of future performance but it’s also heavily flawed. It does give us a starting point for offense, especially if we use the draft season for individual players. Understanding that there are limitations, and that comparing year-over-year is unwise, I think we can agree the cream does rise to the top.
- Connor McDavid 25-42-67
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46
- Nail Yakupov 18-22-40
- Leon Draisaitl 15-25-40
- Kailer Yamamoto 16-22-38
- Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38
- Xavier Bourgault 16-16-32
- Raphael Lavoie 12-15-27
- Ryan McLeod 10-17-27
- Tyler Benson 7-16-23
- Sam O’Reilly 8-14-22
- Reid Schaefer 12-10-22
- Jesse Puljujarvi 10-11-21
I’m sure some of you will look at this list and wonder why O’Reilly isn’t higher, but I think it was clear on draft day that the organization eschewed the ‘pure skill’ selections that drove the drafts of recent seasons. Put another way, this is a draft for need that rings similar to the Reid Schaefe draft, and is not a ‘best offensive prospect remaining’ like the Kailer Yamamoto draft.
It is not the recommended route to go, the thrust of my book is to find skill players and draft them all day. However, the Oilers tried the undersized skill winger route and Yamamoto, while effective, broke down too often. So, instead of doing what I would do (I would absolutely keep drafting skill), the team checked down to a player who is more likely to play in the NHL, could help during the period Edmonton is trying to win the Cup, and brings some unique qualities to the team (I talk about it in today’s article at The Athletic).
I’m inclined to endorse the pick, for a few reasons. Edmonton badly needs all of their picks to cash, and this is a pretty reliable resume we’re looking at in O’Reilly. Players with his resume, and size/speed/skills tend to make it, albeit in a role that doesn’t include the power play.
I don’t know that there’s a real story behind ‘he didn’t play much and still delivered offensively’ but if there’s a way to see that thing with the math available, my bet is Michael Parkatti saw it. I’m also gleefully convinced the Oilers’ brass listens to Parkatti.
He should be an effective even strength, PK, faceoff man, with enough passing skills to deliver as a complementary player when he arrives in the NHL.
Today on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm at Sports 1440, we’ll talk Olympics (it’s an Endless Summer!), the Elks win, the Oilers offseason and contracts that will be signed this month (with Jason Gregor) and we’ll have a few rumours worth hearing too. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: A look at Oilers prospect Sam O’Reilly: Why Edmonton drafted him and what to expect
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5679828/2024/08/06/oilers-prospect-sam-oreilly-nhl-draft/
I’m not sure if I agree with the current narrative re: O’Reilly and his supposed offensive deficiencies. Right now, folks are making it sound like he’s played parts of one OHL season folllowed by two full OHL seasons – the best of which was 60 points. In reality, he put up 56 points in 63 games as a 17-year-old rookie in the best major-junior league in the world after a pretty decent season of Junior-A. Hell, he didn’t even turn 18 until March. He may well hit 100 or more in his Draft+1 year and I should hope that will change the narrative.
I can’t see us likely running a full 23 man roster this year, and equally we will not run a 21 man roster. We’ve been there, done that and it wasn’t pretty.
In order to see worst case scenarios Cao wise, I have constructed a 22 man roster using 13 of our top 14 forwards by salary (the #13 is Perry), our top 7d by salary, with Skinner and Pickard in goal.
That leaves us this year at 1,366,667 over the Cap. I have assumed Broberg and Holloway sign for a combined Cap of 2.3m, which has been postulated in several other places.
That means one player from this roster is going out, in some fashion If Kane ends up on LTIR, we don’t have the same problem anymore. bur for argument’s sake, let’s assume he is healthy and unwilling to approve a trade in any event.
The one being removed would have to be replaced to maintain a 22 man roster, so must be factored in. if the player going out is a forward, the most expensive replacements under contract are Perry at 1,150,000 and Berglund at 950,000, the rest range from 775,000 to 894,167. We could probably pencil in Perry as a F replacement at 1,150,000, so a forward being removed would have to have a Cap hit of at least 2,516,667. the options for this are thus McDavid, Draisatle, Henrique, Skinner, Nuge, Hyman, Arvidsson and Kane. None of these players are going anywhere I would think.
We obviously are not moving Stu from goal so the move would have to come from the D. the potential replacement D outside the top 7 by salary range in cost from 775,000 to 863,333. If we remove from this list of possible replacements those who are clearly not yet NHL ready that removes Hoefenmeyer (775,000), Wanner (828,333) and Akey (863,333). Noy ther remaining possible replacement D are all priced at 775,000, except for Stecher at 787,500. So let’s take Stecher as the most expensive at 787,500. That means the D being removed must have a Cap hit of at least 2,154,167. Ekholm, Nurse, and Bouchard are not going anywhere for various reasons. That leaves Ceci at 3,250,000 and Kulak at 2,750,000.
Many have posited that we move Ceci and replace him with Broberg. I disagree. I like Broberg just fine, but he is just breaking into the NHL and must be put in the best position to succeed. It is one hurdle to break in on the third pairing as a LD – his natural side – but it is adding two additional hurdles to put on the second paring and on the right side, which is NOT his natural side. He will have enough challenge as a young, promising player to break in on the third pairing on his natural side without making it even more difficult. you can keep him on the LD and move Kulak to second paring RD, but they already tried Kulak there and abandoned it shortly after as Kulak was not comfortable there. i think a RD roster of Bouchard, Broberg, and Brown, is far from ideal and a big downgrade of our overall D.AS good as Bouchard is, our best D depth is on the LD
That leaves Kulak as the odd man out. i think we get a very reasonable return for him, which helps, it leaves the RD alone and gives us a LD of Ekholm, Nurse and Broberg with Stecher as the 7th D.
So, IMHO, if Kane is healthy and unwilling to entertain a trade – the move is Kulak out, elevate Broberg to 3 LD and Stecher (or cheaper) at 7D.
That leaves us at a 22 man roster of 13F, 7D and 2G at a Cap of 87,404,167 = Cap space of 595,833. Definitely doable.
The fun comes if Kane is destined to LTIR due to his aggregate injuries over the past couple of years. If he can be reasonably projected to be out for the entire regular season, We gain effective space 5,250,000 against our project overage of q,366,667, for a net Cap hit of 84,241,667 but now need to replace him on the roster and could also add a 14th forward as well. The next two expensive F available from our stable are Perry at 1,150,000 and Berglund at 950,000. it could be a different two players of course, but including the 2 most expensive replacements gives us an outer marker of Cap implications. This leaves us with a 23 man roster at 86,341,667 meaning cap space of 1,658,333. When you are using LTIR, it is optimal to spend as close to the Cap as possible as you are not accruing Cap spacelike you would in a non LTIR scenario. the opportunity then is to upgrade Ceci and being able to shop for a RD in the 4.9m Cap hit range, net of any salary retained. That is where things get interesting if the possibility is out there. to really get crazy, you could elevate Broberg, use an internal hire for 7D, and trade BOTH Kulak and Ceci and go shopping for a 2 RD in the range of 6,870,833 net of retention which is a very nice area to be shopping in.
If Kane is healthy and willing to accomodate a trade, it is similar without the Cap space accrual issue.
We live in interesting times!
I’m not certain they won’t run a 21 player roster.
I’m sure they’d much rather run 22 (or 23, of course) but a cap dumping trade simply makes the healthy roster worse.
I mean removing Ceci and simply bumping up Stecher to 6D and playing nightly and Josh Brown one nick away from the lineup makes it worse.
I’m sure they’d like to carry an extra player and have some additional cap accruing daily but there are a few options.
Kane on LTIR to start the season would likely be a temporary fix – I wouldn’t presume he’d be out for the season.
As far as Kane agreeing to a trade while he has his full NMC, well, he’s building a house in Edmonton and he’s got young kids being raised in Edmonton – agreeing to a trade right as the school year is about to start seems unlikely.
Kane’s also spending, at least part, of his off-season in Alberta as he’s been in Banff the last little while!
I don’t think management is unaware how lucky we have been injury wise for the past year or two. we are not far removed from a time when that being relatively injury free was painfully not the case. i really don’t see them accepting running long term this season on a 21 man roster, I hope I am not wrong on that.
If you read my content above carefully, you will see I am NIT in favor of trading Ceci and moving Broberg to 2 RD is not optimal. However, the substitute players I suggest as 3 RD internally are just placeholders salary wise. There is nothing to say if we had Kane on LTIR or he is traded and we use the opportunity to upgrade Ceci, there is then enough budget to upgrade Ceci AND the 3 RD should the opportunity present itself.
As far as Kane’s agreeing to a trade, that is the great unknown and the situational factors you mention are indeed valid and have been discussed. but only Kane and management know if it is at all feasible. Would he be open to a move to Calgary, for example? Or Winnipeg? Or Vancouver? Or Seattle? Just to name a few scenarios. Other factors might include his role on the team going forward with all these new forwards… will he happy in the bottom 6, if that comes to pass… If he is playing in a different city that has easy access to Edmonton, will he accept his family remaining in Edmonton while he travels from a different nearby city during the season? Other players have done so when necessary. he is 32 and will be 34 when his contract expires. Given his age, recent injury history and robust style of play, it is not given that he continues playing after that point. He can still settle in Edmonton with his family after this contract expires, if he is done as a player. The burden of being apart from his family for large parts of the regular season can be alleviated to some extent. He would be apart from his family for half the season wherever he plays due to road trips in any rate, so it can be accommodated by him if he so chooses. I agree – not knowing what we don’t know about his dynamic with the management, etc. – trading him is not the most likely scenario, but there is past precedent for other players who have faced a reduced role in similar circumstances, so it is still a material possibility, though a less likely one. My little novel above only is meant to show what the roster outcome could look like, should it come to pass.
We will know more once we have more clarity on his health and place on the roster and what it means for him personally. thanks for the debate. OP. I always appreciate the discussion!😁
I will cover a bunch of points so many put up
Kane building a house doesn’t really matter. He’s a millionaire and it’s an investment at worst in a rising market. If he goes he’ll move his family and sell
There is little chance a Vancouver guy with money settles in Edmonton
Hockey players want to play. Especially pros. Kane seems very fit and not a partier. Unless he can’t play he’ll play past this contract. The arm thing was a freak injury and will get better each year. Perhaps they can’t rehab his hip thing, but I don’t get that impression
He may not make 5M but he’ll still play if at all possible. Perry can’t skate and he’s ancient and still wanted
I don’t think Perry Brown or Stecher signed to go down. The 2 D haven’t been in the A in years. They have been 7 D on their teams, maybe the Oilers think they have more, or will platoon them at 7 D meaning one is always 6
I heard a guy maybe Rupp on Gregor talking about players and contracts. Players have some status involved with their deals. They don’t sign really low contracts when higher ones are available because it makes them look like they aren’t worth more, ego in a place with a lot of egos
Henrique is 34 and his team friendly was only 500K less, not really that much. Same goes for TOI and usage. Established NHL players want the TOI they have established if they aren’t aging out like Perry or Ryan. Brown and Stecher are established 7 D, so I highly doubt they will see much AHL unless they fall off a cliff. Can’t see why they would sign with that on the table. Especially done with a former agent. So they have 8 NHL D, a shoe to drop I think. They have some sort of plan forward
As for kids, moving pre season is ideal. Kids can get into a school and the family can stay together. In season is worse by far, and I guess that’s why I expected something sooner. Kulak has kids I assume being a farm boy, not sure about Ceci
Given they signed so many UFA forwards, I highly doubt any of them are going anywhere. It would only be Holloway, and unless they have soured that makes no sense given future cap needs
This roster is the team. A D will go for cap unless Kane is LTIR then they will do it when he can return, or he will agree to a trade. Given the forward make up I’d want him for playoffs, they lack enough ruffians and hooligans
It is easier to break in a young defenseman with a good defense partner rather than a bad defense partner.
Nurse and Kulak are good defense partners for a young D. Ceci is a bad defense partner for a young D.
Quality trumps handedness in defensemen.
Ekholm is also a great partner for a young D. Can he play RD perhaps? The pairings would then end up as Nurse-Bouch, Broberg-Ekholm and Kulak-Ceci… or if they revisit Kulak as a RD, possibly Ekholm-Bouch, Nurse-Ceci, and Broberg-Kulak… hmmm? Anything there? I prefer for a young player to keep him on his natural side as much as possible so I am trying to see how Broberg fits solely as a LD at this point. If they did move him to RD I think it is most likely on the 3rd pairing with Kulak… I would be even more adverse to both playing Broberg as a RD as well as elevating him too quickly to 2nd pair…. thoughts?
Love Ekholm but the answer is no, he is not able to play RD. Two years ago before being traded by Nashville, he played some RD and the numbers were not pretty.
While I agree with you in principle that playing Broberg as a LD makes sense, he’s also played a lot of RD in the AHL and giving him the opportunity to start the season on RD – and not over-reacting as he gets his rep is a good play.
Broberg’s skating would be the better bet to play RD. Give him 40 games with Nurse and if you have a problem, you make a trade at the deadline.
While I agree with you in principle that playing Broberg as a LD makes sense, he’s also played a lot of RD in the AHL and giving him the opportunity to start the season on RD – and not over-reacting as he gets his rep is a good play.
I agree about Ekholm needing to stay on his natural left side but the above is often stated and not actually true. Broberg did play quite a bit of the right side back in the SHL but not in the AHL.
This past season he played all but no RD in the AHL and he was the left side on a leftie/leftie pairing with Gleason for most of the season.
He did play some RD the year prior in Bako but nothing material.
Quotes really aren’t hard to figure out.
Copy paste what you’re quoting. Then click randomly in the text, and then click the quote button on the format bar below the text editor.
Done.
OP you simply have to use quotes properly. Timeouts are now one year. No exceptions. Please use quotes properly. Thanks.
Ekholm is too slow to play the right hand side anymore.
Broberg has the elite skating and the experience of playing on the right side. That is where this roster needs him to play for a year or two.
The Oilers don’t need him to be a saviour out there. When he is on the right side, there is alwasy going to be a solid guy on the left side with him.
Ekholm did play some RD in Nashville – others have crunched the data and provided the numbers and the results were, well, not pretty.
From much of what I’ve read and heard, limiting the loss of effectiveness on the off-side for a d-man is all about the skates, not just pure mobility but skate positioning, etc., etc.
I do understand your premise but I do think that Broberg is more suited to his off-side than Ekholm, despite not being established, etc.
Your pairings is something I have suggested and would like to see (with Ekholm/Broberg being LD/RD).
See how it goes, can always go back to Ekholm/Bouchard in an instant.
I thought they should have traded Kulak and Ceci last summer, one for the cap to get Bouch long and less, two because we knew then they had to improve on Ceci
Kulak played well, but if your team can’t win in playoffs because the 3LD got moved your hooped anyway. Kulak also made an error on one of two GA in game 7 that a vet isn’t supposed to make. Ceci was hard for them to play, again
They signed two NHL RD who each played over 50 games last season and haven’t been in the A for years, so perhaps they are going to see if Bro can handle it and then decide what to do. I suppose if they wait until injuries start on other teams they will have trade avenues in season
I don’t think Bro will do well enough at RD. For one there are very few playing off hand that don’t have a pretty big drop off in stats, second although I think he is a very talented player, he hasn’t rounded his game out. He needs to work on being stronger on his skates and board work
Also getting used to dealing with forechecks etc, where he did have issues in the playoffs to me. If I see him needing to grow in those areas in general, as you said playing off hand it will be that much harder. Theodore does in Vegas, but they are sheltering him and his DFF% against elites is 39, middle 44. Not good
Man it’s amaZing how much time you guys spend thinking about this stuff.
This is your first time here? 😂 wait till we get started!!!!
Thank you all for your input. I love a good discussion!🥳
I met David Willcox in Jasper way back in the mid 80’s at the Astoria pub, which is now the Dead Dog. In those days they had some very good live entertainment. Anyway, we stayed well after the bar closed and chatted for quite some time. At that time, I was considering working at Trans Mountain Pipeline, he asked what you would do there? I said, I don’t know lay pipe, I guess. Sometime later he left with his girlfriend, the last thing I said to him was, I guess you’ll be laying some pipe tonight and he responded with a smile, all night long. Fun times in Jasper.
Thumbs up if you believe this story.
Thumbs down if you think it is fiction.
I don’t make this stuff up.
my brothers and I played the room many times…back then it was called the mirror room I believe…it was a great small club for sure…the Andrew clan owned it and I believe still do…great memories!
I don’t recall what the name of the establishment was called then . But yeah the Andrew’s own it and it wasn’t damaged by the fire, thank goodness.
It’s a gem.
DVD with a piece up at NHL.com with some quotes from Bowman who is at the Hilinka-Gretzky.
Bowman said he’s spoken with Liut and it was positive. There is no time line or anything like that on the Drai contract but certainly nothing negative to report.
As an aside, Celeste with a new story on IG that shows Drai living his best life – sexy dancing and having fun and just looking happy. It measn nothing but I love to see it!
My concern with the O’Riley pick is that, often, 2-way players in junior often turn in to tweeners and career AHLers, whereas 2-way players in the NHL were generally production starts in junior – no?
Of course, that is looking at things from the 1000 foot level and, clearly, Pracey and his staff saw something in O’Riley that they think warranted the trade. We do know about O’Riley being “blocked” as far as opportunities this past year in London and that’s the type of players that Pracey likes to identify – their potential outweighs their prior production due to circumstance.
I’m looking forward to seeing this guy in Penticton and then back in London.
Apparently, O’Reilly is super competitive. That is the type of player the Oilers are looking for.
What kind of numbers should we be looking at if he has a healthy year?
Last year Easton Cowan (#28 overall 2023) on the same team went from 53 pts in 63 games to 96 pts in 54 games. If Sam O’Reilly improved his 56 pts in 68 games to the same as Cowan, we’d be doing cartwheels but if he doesn’t get to or over a point per game, he’s probably in trouble.
He played 68 last season 56 pts, at that many games he needs to get over 100pts if he has the skill they think he does but was buried, given a more prominent role
Savoie had 90pts in 65 his draft year and went ninth. Sam’s name sake Ryan was drafted in 09 66 pts in 68 games, went straight to the NHL. If our O’Reilly take an offensive jump he won’t be far off because of his rounded skill set, skating and size. W Johnston had one more junior year and straight to the league. I’m not saying he’s that talented, but
If you draft players that don’t have big obstacles to overcome to develop an NHL game and have some skill, they can arrive quicker. It’s like Wanner – skating, size, assertive, some skill. He’s passing older players because of it, like Kemp. He’ll be in the NHL soon unless something happens
The Oilers have drafted many small/smaller or skating challenged players, or skill guys with no bite in their games, and it doesn’t produce many helpful NHL players even if they make their 100 games
I’m not sure if it’s that straightforward. RoR was 1PPG in juniors and went straight to the
league. Maybe the way to frame it is players with low offense in juniors aren’t making it . Moroz had 25 points in his draft year Mem Cup champs, 34 the next
Lucic had 19 pts Mem Cup champs, but 30 G and 68 pts in 70 the next, and is a monster, so maybe Bruins’ scouts saw something. And also monster, but he is an outlier and a half as the Oilers found out trying to draft his doppleganger
Some offense first junior scorers have to change their games to stick in the NHL where unless you are elite you can’t play one way. Or can’t score without PP. But solid two way CHL players that are big enough, can skate and produce enough offense in juniors translate into the NHL game because they are already playing it, just have to get used to the steps up
Or other feeder leagues. Holloway was as good or better than Foegele in playoffs with far few games under his belt. But he has the size and speed as WF and is a more talented player and better finisher. I’m pretty settled now after 3 disappointing playoffs that you play the best players regardless. And healthiest
Most players make mistakes, but better players are more likely to break games regardless of age if they have enough self confidence . And if they don’t move on quick once you know. It’s pro sports man
Also, RoR hasn’t been a high point producer as he wasn’t in juniors. But we shouldn’t get too focused on production, when what really matters is out scoring top players especially in important games, which he excelled at in prime
And that is what you are looking for when you’re not in the lottery anymore and have the elite talent already. You need the draught horses, the guys really hard to play against, the Ekholms Janmarks and Henriques. And hopefully Holloways O’Reillys Brobergs and Wanners
And why you jump at the chance to get a Savoie for a McLeod when you can’t draft them anymore. You may lose the deal, but your recovery is easier
It also comes down to timing and luck within a organization why did Yamo and J.P get such a push over and over with kids gloves and then a Lavoie gets shit on and buried.
I think the fly in the ointment of the ‘draft for skill’ philosophy is there are many skills in the game of hockey. And players who excel at certain skills may lack in other areas of the game. And as you have stated many times, skill development (plus coaching) is as critical so there are miles of track yet uncovered after the draft.
I’m stating the obvious to all those that frequent this site but scouting/drafting for skill increases the likelihood of finding a good player. However, like predicting the weather, there are so many micro-variables in the ‘development’ phase that influence the outcome.
So I like when the Oil mix up their draft approaches and play around with the player profiles they target. It doesn’t appear random – they are still relying on data – but they are covering more bases.
Back in the day there were heated debates about size, the soup du jour being that it didn’t matter. I wasn’t convinced. I posted the other day how few players there are in the NHL under 180 lbs. ~6.5%, there’s a reason
Bourgault was a better bet based on the math, but I think he will be hard pressed to make it, although his odds went up going elsewhere. I can see why Coffey was pushing for Johnston. A big fast RS C that can score is far more likely to make the league and do something than a smaller, not assertive non elite skater at the same position
There are hundreds of skilled hockey players to draft, there are not nearly as many suited to NHL playoff hockey. At 32 O’Reilly has a range of skills that can be helpful to an NHL team. Strong two way play, assertiveness, size speed and a good shot (meaning can score) are the non elite guys you want
I’m cool with the O’Reilly pick.
But I’d like to reiterate that I believe this is revisionist history.
In terms of scoring on draft day:
Johnson
Draft -1 52 12-18-30
Draft yr ———–
Bourgault
Draft -1 63 33-38-71
Draft yr 29 20-20-40
Not comparable. No evidence (from major junior hockey) that Johnston ‘can score’.
And I don’t know for certain their heights and weights on draft day, but as of today Elite Prospects lists Bourgault as 6′, 172 and Johnston as 6’1″, 185.
Those heights and weights likely reflect what they were on draft day – ie. not a big gap.
Except word is Coffey was recommending drafting Johnston at a time when EDM had no official OHL scout (for some reason).
Yes, and he’s clearly been proven correct since.
But that doesn’t make ‘big fast RS C that can score‘ an accurate description of Johnston on draft day.
Yes that’s why I said math liked the pick. We don’t know how discussions went around it either internally. Given the history of the Q and the OHL and draft position, it seems the riskier pick based on eyeballs was the way to go. Hindsight of course, I do think it cost Wright his gig though, not taking the goalie, and missing on the better player, and ending up having to move the one they chose
Sad to say but there is no way we can keep Nurse on the team after this season and sign Bouchard and Drai. It simply can’t happen without gutting the team. Here is my best case scenario. We win the cup this year with Nurse and then next summer trade him to SJS for Vlasic who will have one year left at $7 million. You could then buy Vlasic out at a cap hit of $4.6 million in 25-26 and $1.1 million in 26-27. Gotta be done. Even with that it will be hard to win if Drai, Bouch and McDavid max out as Bruce and Staples discussed this week.
Why is Vlasic being traded here then bought out the best case scenario? I know there’s a lot of ill will towards the Nurse cap hit but he’s not exactly chopped liver as a defender just yet. There will be teams who would trade for Nurse with either zero, or worst case, $1-1.5 mill retained without the need for a boat anchor in Vlasic coming back.
Plus if we win the Cup with Nurse why would he even want to leave? Is there no other money potentially coming off the books in a couple of years? Neal buyout, Kane, etc.?
I’m not saying don’t trade Nurse if it makes us better but I am saying don’t trade him to bring in Vlasic to buy him out.
Keeping the band together for the next two years looks entirely feasible to me given that the cap for 25/26 should be in the neighbourhood of $93M. Looking further out than that goes beyond speculation into the realm of guessing given the number of expiring contracts involved.
That’s technically true, but if you ‘keep the band together for the next two years’, which I agree looks entirely feasible, then you’ve gotten over the biggest cap crunch hump.
Those three imminent contracts are the biggest ones on the horizon by far. Once those are in place the yearly cap increases should allow for the less expensive business to proceed smoothly.
Agreed.
McDavid, Drai, Bouchard and Skinner are all up for new contracts in the next 22 months. That is about $43 million (guess) on a cap somewhere in the 90s. You probably can’t be super competitive even if you just trade Nurse – let alone keep him. If Drai and McDavid want to stay and win – then someone gets voted off the island – and that person is Nurse. If you can dispose of Nurse’s contract clean – then by all means do it – but I don’t think that is possible. Cap has to come back and no one is giving young, cheap talent for Nurse’s contract. Vlasic is just an example of what might be possible.
I posted this the other day but allow me to do it again.
=============================
Let’s run some numbers for 2025-26.
1st some context.
I did not trade anybody with a contract already in place for 25-26.
I signed Broberg & Holloway this summer for two years each. Broberg at $1.25M and Holloway at $.85M. Just my estimates.
So I start the season with a known payroll based upon signed contracts with the following roster – and, yes, I know there will be trades, injuries etc.. This is just based upon what is currently signed.
Kane, McDavid, Hyman, Nuge, Arvidsson, Henrique, & Janmark are my known forward group. Those 7 account for $36,700,000 in cap space.
I signed Draisaitl for $13.25M, Holloway signed for two years so he is still at $.85M. I slotted Savoie in at 3RW at his known contract number of $.866667M and re-signed Philp for the 4C spot at $.85M for a total of $15,836.667 for 11 forwards.
I then allotted $1.65 to sign a 12th & 13th forward for a total of $54,186,667.
On defence I have Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak still on contract for a total of $18M. I signed Bouchard for $8.9,* Broberg still has one more year on his $1,25M I gave him this summer and I slotted in Wanner at his known $.828333 as the 3RD while budgeting $.8M for a 7th dman. Total comes to $29,778,333.
(* I got some pushback on the Bouchard number but he will still be a RFA at the time of the negotiations. Eight years is the best way to go but there are options if the cap room is a little light.)
Skinner & Pickard are still signed at $3.6.
The Campbell buyout costs $2.3M and there are no overages* or bonuses.
(* since I wrote this I remembered that Perry has a $250,000 performance bonus clause that might kick in.)
Total cap hit when added is $89,865,000 which leaves me with $3,135,000 on my projected $93M cap limit for the season based upon the info that the cap could have been higher this year based upon revenues but was restrained by the 5% increase noted in the CBA.
I would note that this is all hypothetical. I don’t expect it to play out like this but this is what is in place plus what I estimate could happen without trades – which, of course, there will be.
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I think 2025-26 is quite doable based upon this unless I have missed something. There is a $3.6 M cushion built into my estimates as well as the potential to buy out Kane next summer if that proves warranted.
You mention Bouchard as being an RFA without noting he will have arbitration rights.
Given rapid cap inflation what do you think an arbitration award would look like?
If he now considered an “NHL d-man”? I mean, it was just last season when the statement was made that he wasn’t.
Expectations are that the contract will be in the $9.5MM to $10MM range and an arbitration award likely doesn’t come in too much higher and, of course, the chances that it actually goes to arbitration are slim – the majority of cases never reach the hearing.
If he goes to arbitration it would be for one or two years. I think the $9.5 M number that some have bandied about would be for an 8 year contract, no?
An arbitrator will look at comparables.
Dahlin signed an $11 million contract last year.
Adam Fox signed for $9.5 million two season ago.
Makar signed for $9 million three seasons ago.
21 year old Brock Faber signed an 8 year contract for $8.5 million with a much shorter track record.
Miro Heiskanen signed fir $8.45 million three years ago.
By the time Bouchard extends the cap will have gone up by at least 15% since most of those deals were inked.
And, as the Oilers defacto #1D and right shot to boot, Bouchard has all the leverage…very reminiscent of the Nurse fiasco.
From “not an NHL d-man” to using Fox and Dahlin and Heiskanen is the comparables in less than a year.
2025-26 is not the issue with McDavid still on his 2nd contract. The year after is the issue when McDavid and Skinner’s new deals are due (probably Holloway and Broberg as well). Signing Bouchard for only 3 or 4 years next summer is poor strategy and your $8 million is a minimum number. Signing everyone while paying your 2LD $9 million will gut our depth at forward and defense. RNH and Hyman are also winding down at that time. Welcome to the post-cup Pittsburg Penguins.
Some hard decisions need to be made about Nurse. I would play him with Bouchard on the top pair this year. Ekholm is getting older and we should cut down his minutes in the regular season anyway. We are paying Nurse like a #1 dman and he needs to deliver like a #1 dman. If he can’t – he needs to be dealt.
You are the one that started this conversation talking about the year after this. I was just responding to that.
As I noted some of my signings might be light but I left a $3.6M cushion. .
As for the following year Kane, Arvidsson, Henrique and Kulak all drop off the cap and although they will need to be replace them how they do that is unknown,
Ekholm is also off the cap and if he signs again it is probably for less than his current cap hit.
What is likely, though, is that there will be another $4-$5M increase in the cap. Skinner probably gets $2.5M of that on top of his current salary and how much will it take to sign McDavid? Another $5M to take him to $17.5? No idea.
Broberg replaces Kulak and Holloway is still unknown imo. 2nd line or 3rd. If they are still contenders UFA’s should still be affordable.
I really don’t see doom & gloom.
Nurse has an NMC, so he is not going anywhere. He is more critical to contending than Bouchard is. Sather thought Coffey was the most expendible part in the eighties when he had an internal cap because Pocklington was profit skimming.
One can get 80% of Bouchard at 50% of the price.
That said, I don’t see any difficulty to keep all McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Nurse, Bouchard, Broberg, Wanner, and Stu Skinner together.
In the Stanley Cup Final:
Bouchard: 26:12 TOI/G
Nurse: 15:50 TOI/G
I’m a Nurse supporter and he was clearly hurt in the playoffs and I think his bounce-back to historical norms is key to a cup victory but he is not in Evan Bouchard’s stratosphere – Bouchard is an elite top 5 2-way minute munching d-man and he’s not even in his prime yet.
So, you’re saying Bouchard’s next contract should start with an 11 like Dahlin?
I do think it should come in around $10MM.
Dahlin’s contract only includes 1 RFA year, Bouchard’s will include two, I believe.
The cap will be 10% higher when Bouchard signs.
Exactly. Bouchard will get at least $10 million and you can’t replace him for any price. We already replaced Nurse as our #1 LD with Ekholm for 50% less cap. You can (and should) replace Nurse as our #2 LD for another 50% less ($3 million).
The only other option is to play Nurse at 1LD – hope he performs – and let Ekholm gracefully age out until Broberg is ready for 2LD. But even then I can see Broberg being ready for 1LD duty with Bouchard by that time – and then Nurse is still an over-paid 2LD.
I like Nurse. Quality guy, intelligent, athletic as hell. But he has not played up to that contract at all and you can’t lay all of that on his partner. The big dollars come with a responsibility to make less than perfect lines/pairs work. He simply hasn’t done it. He’s a bit like RNH about 3 years ago. RNH tuned it around and upped his game, maybe Nurse will is well, but he needs to be replaced if he doesn’t.
I agree. He has a unique skill set. It’s like Kane. Nurse is big AND can skate, that alone is rare. He can put up offense and is mean. If they get a him a good partner he will also look better
Trouba at 8M is a similar player but Nurse is bigger younger and has more offense at this point. The question is what 10 teams will he put on his NT list in 27/28? He also has to approve any deals even with a 10 team NT. Probably an Oiler lifer unless he wants a change
That is one team unfriendly contract back loaded with 6M signing bonuses. You’d think he was Paul Coffey or something looking at it, brutal on Holland’s part. I hope Bowman and JJ aren’t going to do that type of thing
Yeah I looked a the contract details yesterday. It’s an extremely team-unfriendly deal.
Maybe we should wait to see what Draisaitl signs for this summer before making plans based upon worst case scenarios?
Precisely, we heard right out of Leon’s mouth that he would take a little less, as long as others will do the same, namely McDavid and Bouchard. What’s done is done with Nurses contract. I’m sure he knows what’s up and will be working hard to make it right.
They just want to win a cup, or two or three. They’re going to do what needs to be done to reach their goals as a team.
Why would Nurse waive his NMC for SJS?
Sad to say but there is no way we can keep Nurse on the team after this season and sign Bouchard and Drai
This really is just not true.
As long as management is prudent in not over-capping the depth/role players and moving on from them as they price themselves out (which they have shown with Vinny and Foegele), there will be room with the projecting increasing cap to keep the bang together.
5% increase of 2025/26 and, potentially a higher increase for 2026/27 as the max 5% that was put in place in 2020 will be gone and projected revenues lead to a larger increases (and the new Canadian TV deal will be getting done in a few years).
Not sure Nurse waives his NMC to move to San Jose – lets not forget he is raising a young family in Edmonton and has put down roots in the community with his family.