With the news this morning that the St. Louis Blues have delivered a dual offer sheet to young Oilers Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, I’m reminded of the barn scene in the movie O Brother, Where Art Thou? The moment when George Clooney says “damn, we’re in a tight spot” from the hay loft comes to mind as a perfect reading of this morning’s news.
The only good thing? This is an easy problem to suss out. The outcome will hurt, but all is not lost.
MATCH BROBERG
The offer sheet for Philip Broberg is 2 years at $4,580,917. The Oilers have to match. It’s a miserable turn, and means the team will have to offload Cody Ceci, but for me it’s a no-brainer. The Oilers have to match.
DYLAN HOLLOWAY
The offer sheet for Dylan Holloway is 2 years at $2,290,457. It’s going to be easier to replace him than Broberg, sorry to say. I think he’ll have a fine career, but the Oilers spent plenty of money on July 1 adding older players and this is the price now being exacted on them.
As for the play by the St. Louis Blues, I applaud it. You can be an angry Oilers fan, I understand. However, for a player like Broberg this is confirmation that he is wanted, is an NHL player, and doesn’t have to wait in line. Move your best young players up when they’re ready, people. That’s the lesson here.
The Lowdown hits at 12 noon today, Sports 1440. What EVER will we talk about??? I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I imagine this increases the pressure to avoid similar tactics used on Bouchard. Go longon the man, I say.
Have we forgotten so soon how overpays on depth players are death by a thousand cuts? If management adjudges them to be overpays on merit rather than by contract status, let them walk. Otherwisw we become the authors of our present and future pain.
Poll #3
Thumbs Up – Match Holloway’s offer
Thumbs Down – Let him walk
Poll #2
Thumbs Up – Match Broberg’s offer
Thumbs Down – Let him walk
Poll #1
Thumbs Up – Match both offers
Thumbs Down – Let both walk
I can already foresee the next decade of darkness. It is nearly upon us. After the beautiful if transitory display of magic and fireworks this year in the playoffs, we will soon be lighting candles in the basement again, praying for high draft picks and young prospects.
Yes, it’s a cycle that every team goes through. California used to be murderers row 10 years go, not so much these days.
Enjoy the magic while it’s here.
Now what was all that talk about players not getting claimed off waivers again? I’m only seeing Hamblin from the probables who’s waivers exempt.
Who are you concerned about getting claimed?
Depends on the roster. Stecher? I wouldn’t want to be down Ceci or Broberg and then also lose Stecher. But seems unlikely to be an option at that point.
Stecher is one that could get claimed for sure but I think he’ll be on the roster all season.
There would/will be many moving pieces towards matching one, or both, of the offer sheets and then trying to get below the cap prior to placing Kane on LTIR.
It seems “off-season LTIR” to get cap compliant is more likely – then again, as I said, so many moving parts its tough to really formulate anything concrete.
Are there implications here in regards to Draisaitl?
Another option is to trade Holloway this week to SJS for Kostin who clearly wants to play here.
Because he signed the OS it’s either match or get a 3rd round pick
I am now even more strongly in the camp of “sign Tyson Barrie.” We won’t have one of Ceci or Broberg next year, possibly either.
Trade both to Columbus this week for something useful and let the lads enjoy their salary. Totally unsurprised about Broberg as he’s been unhappy – but kind of chaffed about Hollywood unless they were offering him less than $1 million.
Agree. I’d like to know if one side was truly being unreasonable and unwilling.
Broberg was unhappy that they did not commit to him over Kulak a year ago and I get that. He should have been playing full-time a year ago and this cost him a lot of money. Plus the salary offered is substantial. You understand him signing this one fully and I would do it myself without question.
Holloway is different in that his stat line is 89 gms 9-9-18. So nowhere near deserving that kind of money, but his on-ice numbers are good. I think you either pay him or trade him for Kostin this week. I think the McLeod trade had some impact here. He took a bullet for the team after his first contract and got sent to BUF as a reward.
You can pay both by trading Kulak and Kane goes on LTIR until they can replace Ceci with a cheaper replacement. It’s going to happen anyway so might as well do it now. Can’t let STL get away with this or you paint a bullseye on yourself every year. Match and STL just looks like a-holes.
It’s interesting to note that there’s been some talk about Carolina buying out Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Young guys don’t always pan out. Maybe you just let them walk?
Then again, I assume the Oilers had Broberg pencilled in for a decade. That’s very hard to replace. You can’t just draft a D-man.
As for Holloway, maybe you just bump up Savoie’s development and hope he replaces Holloway?
It’s a real bind. St. Louis was crafty. You hate to lose both those guys for (effectively) nothing, but I guess you can’t be guided by loss aversion.
Big test for JJ/Bowman, and we won’t know the results for a long time.
How many people here, on free agent day, complained about giving money to Jeff Skinner when it could make us vulnerable to an offer sheet? I don’t recall many.
This is more or less a black swan event.
F*ck Peter Chiarelli.
Everyone was giddy, yes. But there were undercurrents and questions about how they were going to address the cap and the D.
Is it just me, or does it seem that Kane changed his mind on the immediacy of surgery based on the team’s cap situation? I read this as Kane doing what has been asked of him the entire time, as if previously he was asked to pursue camp and “look healthy.” One can only guess that before the offer sheets surgery may have come in January, which seems to be the kind of hip surgery timing that Milstein tends to agree is beneficial to his players.
Interesting breakdown of the trade STL worked to regain their 2nd round pick from PIT.
Maybe some of the smarter Oilers staff can keep a heat map of all the other teams and whether they own their own 1sts, 2nd and 3rd round picks, and have cap space for offer sheets. Be on the lookout for ‘poachers’ while we spend the next 6+years tight to the cap.
Although we no longer have much of a young talent pool to poach anyway, lol.
Hindsight being 20/20…
What could you have traded Broberg and Holloway for?
If you, for example, had offered Calgary Broberg for RA, would they have said, no?
I’ll be blunt
This is the problem with soft minded people constantly being blindsided
Two disgruntled people left reading how they would be lowballing them because playoffs unplayable Ceci and getting old Kulak who made a bad play on the game 7 losing goal blah blah
If you’re not sure about a guy move on. Not like this
Sorry, what on earth are you saying here?
Could you be less blunt and more coherent?
Who is soft minded?
Who is disgruntled?
Who was lowballed?
Kulak is 30 years old.
Who’s not sure about who?
What?
Sorry I wasn’t clear
Oiler management have been soft minded. They needed to deal with the D last summer, made the wrong call and here we are
Broberg and Holloway are disgruntled with the Oilers over usage
Both were going to be given as little as possible because of the slow way they have been proceeding regarding the cap and contracts. It’s been in the media a ton, players read that stuff
Kulak is 30, so isn’t a solution to losing Broberg. They would have a hole on the system to fill as there is no prospect LD anywhere close and no one really on the farm that is older and a suitable long term replacement that I see
If they weren’t sure about Broberg and Holloway trade them, not lose them like this for peanuts.Jackson seemed more decisive and active than Holland, but they blew this one big time he and Bowman
That’s much clearer, thanks.
The more I see that contract number for Broberg, the more ridiculous it looks.
STL looks oddly desperate on that deal.
I really hate this offer sheet, but from St. Louis perspective, it makes sense.
By tendering the dual offer sheets, it puts immense pressure on the Oilers for one or both players to shake loose.
In terms of the price, if you’re going to bother with an offer sheet, you have to sign the player to a contract that’s difficult to match for the other team.
If they think Brogerg is a top 4 d, getting him at age 23 (under control) for a second round pick and $4.6m cap hit is a heck of deal for them.
And for two years, it’s not really that much of a risk.
I know everyone is concerned right now about letting Broberg walk, but from the organization’s point of view it’s the likely course of action.
If the goal is to win a Cup in the next 2 years, then what do you place more value on: a 2nd round pick from St. Lois or Broberg on a 4.9 million dollar contract for 2 seasons, that can’t be traded for at least 1 season? I think the former gets you closer to getting what you need to bring balance to the organization (aka – a veteran RHD to play on the 2nd pairing with Nurse) at TDL 2025. Matching on Broberg leaves you hamstrung from making any other major moves. Nevermind, the optics of hanging on to a clearly disgruntled player.
Holloway is worth more than a 3rd round pick … but the contract is poison. He’s unlikely to get enough playing time in the Oilers top 6 to justify that contract, and may not even get that opportunity in St. Louis. I won’t be surprised if he doesn’t receive a qualifying offer from his next team once this contract expires.
Letting both Broberg and Holloway walk and making sure you have the cap space to take care of Leon and Bouchard is the better long term move. It’s much harder to get the Aces and Kings than the non-face cards.
Stauffer throwing Holland under the bus to protect current management is disingenuous.
There is no way an agent with a client in the situation of Broberg and Holloway in January and February would allow them to sign a cheap transition deal.
The time to sign them was on Jackson’s watch in June and early July. The money allocated to Skinner should have been used to get Broberg and Holloway signed in June with generous transition deals. 2 x $2 million for Broberg. And 2 x $1.5 for Holloway. That might have gotten the deals done.
Grinding them was an idiotic strategy, especially after forcing each to play effectively an extra unnecessary season in Bakersfield, and after they delivered in the playoffs.
This was a Jeff Jackson fail. His first after a lot of good work.
Hard to argue
Ha, I just wrote much the same below.
We agree on this for once, though not necessarily all the rest of your comment.
Grinding works 99% of the time. Nobody would have predicted this. $4.5M for Broberg? That’s insane.
Torey Krug’s ankle injury gave the Blues cap space that they didn’t know they had on July 1. For them, the risk is worth it, and there is a top 4 LHD spot that has opened up on their roster for him to fill.
Bro is going to be a good D. I don’t want to lose him for nothing, but he’s not ideal for the Oilers overall. Piss poor management
Coach K teed up the move right at the end of the playoffs.
The biggest weakness on this team was the 2nd line. The 2nd line getting owned in two straight playoffs cost them.
Adding actual NHL scorers will raise all boats.
That 2nd pairing, no matter the configuration, is going to run >55GF% and probably running > 58xGF% now that they’ve fixed the 2nd line. There will also be greater scoring pop on the 3rd, again lifting all boats. Just wait until Kane is back.
The obsession with defense blinded a few posters about the shortcomings on offense. Those were addressed and this team is way better for it.
Ok, sure. I agree also. But if Holland joins the Blues as a special advisor, I’m back to blaming Holland again.
— neither brah or hollow are these guys legacy. Much easier to let go of for new management: that’s guidebook 101
— I pass on both and get other guys for short term gain and long term pain.
— Just terrible risk management by the organization full stop, Holland and or JJ…
I sure hope the new regime has a more up to date marinate recipe than the one used by Holland when it comes to Lavoie-Jarventie-Savoie-Wanner-O’Reilly-Rodrique
I think there’s 2 ways of being emotional about this. One is anger/vengeance. The other is over-attachment. Both are folly.
The same way that the players were unemotional about the contracts (didn’t Hyman’s speech mean anything to those soulless ghouls?😜), so too should we be about evaluating them. Meaning the time spent drafting and developing is a sunk cost.
We all know why you draft. To keep a cheap supply of serviceable talent and to hope that every now and then you hit the jackpot with a superstar. Cost controlled players in top half of your line up is great. So what is the upside when the cost controlled player is not a value contract? All of that benefit is gone.
What’s that site that estimates contract value based on performance? I would hazard a guess that Kulak currently at 2.75/yr is better value than Broberg at 4.5, a number that can only increase in 2 years time. Value vs Ceci and vs Nurse is another matter, but teams are already looking to pounce and grab draft picks from Edmonton, which is not the position you want to be in (and a position that was likely avoidable months ago?).
Loved watching Holloway. Forwards of his skillset and contribution are a dime a dozen in FA.
Not a fun position to be in and unclear why it got here. Particularly unfortunate to have a gaping hole on 2nd pair D. I don’t really know how to sugar coat this. Turning the 9 million for Nurse into 2 2nd pair D is the holy grail, but remains a pipe dream
Great take. If it’s my decision after all the great comments and perspectives
I would let them go. Get the stats and pro scouts busy
Put an end to the Holland era and move forward. I think Stecher while imperfect is a better option for Nurse than Ceci or 4. whatever Bro
Another GM left a mess of muddled thinking. Move on and fix it. If you are better
Remember Broberg only earned an NHL salary for roughly 1 year of his entry level deal. Otherwise he was earning minor league money. Ditto for Holloway. They have both only earned about $1 million in actual dollars over three years.
It makes it difficult to turn down $9 million and $4.5 million, when the Oilers are only offering ~$2 million, and far less opportunity for advancement.
The issue isn’t the pay, it’s when. Both will be worth the contracts just for the Oilers and there slow timid approach it bit them in the butt, yet again. And also weak player evaluation on roster players
They have to get this right. You can walk them but you better replace them
Far less opportunity for advancement?
Next year the Oilers had Broberg penciled in for 2nd pairing RD, with the following year a high chance of taking over 1LD if he continues to progress. What more opportunity can there possible be then that?
While Holloway is seemingly blocked this current season from obtaining top 6 minutes, as he should be, the following season they may have given him the Skinner assignment depending on his play. There’s a very strong possibility that Holloway is healthy scratched in St.Louis this upcoming season.
While yes, they haven’t obtained high dollars yet and weren’t going to get the contracts they’ve signed. The opportunity for advancement is absolutely there and to suggest otherwise is complete rubbish. .
Agreed . It’s about money. Mismanagement
I have zero issue with either player signing these contracts. Anyone here who says they wouldn’t have are either lying or crazy. Stay in an organisation that has either blocked you or put you in poor positions to succeed and lowballed your salary. or… go to an organisation who clearly sees value in you and in Brobergs case has given you a salary of 4x more than the last employer offered.
Broberg and his agent weren’t happy earlier in the year. In hindsight you knew this was coming.
Many tend to look at these things only from the team’s point of view while ignoring the player’s (and agent’s) perspective.
NHL careers are short and there is always a risk injury can make them even shorter.
Ive pointed out before how the Oilers development of Bouchard has cost him tens of millions of dollars and yet some think he should continue to “take one for the team”.
The only mistake the team did was not going long early. He hadn’t established
The key is to go long BEFORE the player pops but you still have confidence he will.
Yes that is player evaluation. If you can’t make a decision early and project the player, I don’t think that manager knows what they are doing. You shouldn’t wait until it’s completely obvious or you pay more. It’s a cap efficiency contest as we are seeing
sorry but was that before or after you said he wasn’t an NHL defender and that you wouldn’t trade Rafferty for him ???
Maybe we all have to listen a little more to Godot, despite his rantings. He often has it right though he can be irritating and repetitious as hell.
We’re all right and wrong. Godot has strong opinions as I do, but he’s way unbacked by stats on Bro as 2RD. On a math focused blog
Assuming Godot downvoted you have never based your argument on stats
But the truth, if you don’t know it already, is that Godot is a whole lot better at math than you or I. And I am quite good at math.
The Oilers must sign both Broberg and Holloway. It is imperative. They are developed first-round draft choices. They are worth way more than second and third round picks.
Why did management spend so much time signing old men and leaving their two best prospects unsigned?
I do not blame Broberg and Holloway for signing the offer sheets, particularly when the Oilers thought it was more important to sign old guys like Cory Perry. Broberg and Holloway were slow-played even though they were ready to play on the big team. Management’s unstated goal was likely to artificially suppress the value of Broberg and Holloway, and put them on cheap contracts, so they could open the bank for the superstars. Well, how well did that strategy work?
In my view, the superstars should be asked to take a haircut–perhaps a brush-cut or a full Brazilian ;0 They are never going to get anywhere near a Stanley Cup if the team is filled with old men and over-paid middle-aged men. Holloway and Broberg both bring speed and energy, and they have so much upside. We saw how important their energy and speed were to the team in the playoffs. There must be balance between youth and experience.
Where was the astute asset management?
Now some real work must be done. One or two unproductive, flawed, or overpaid players have to be given away, probably for free. Kane on LTIR is not going to be sufficient, as that does not guarantee staying under the salary cap for the whole season.
Are they worth more than 2nd and 3rd round picks as players? Yup.
Of course, in this day and age, a player’s worth is tied to his contract and both of these players were much more valuable 14 hours ago.
This isn’t to say matching won’t/isn’t the right thing for one or both – I don’t the answer to tell you the truth but I do know that value is directly tied to contract.
Darnell Nurse is worth much more than a 2nd round pick but, with his contract, he’s not.
———-
As far as slow-playing, 100% on Broberg, he proved NHL ready almost two year ago.
Holloway, on the other hand, was given ample opportunities, including many up the lineup – any lack of development was on his play and his injuries.
I would say that a player’s worth has to take into account not only the salary but the potential duration of that player’s value. From that perspective, guys like Broberg and Holloway have increased value due to the likelihood of their being around for the next decade and improving incrementally during that period. Someone like Cory Perry has next to no value by comparison, because of the short duration of the value he now has left. One year or Cory Perry versus 10 years of Dylan Holloway. I know which one I’d choose.
If one is maximizing the strength of the team over time, one simply has to create balance between old high-value players with short remaining duration and young promising players who have been developed and are ready to exhibit value for a considerably longer period of time. This makes Broberg considerably more valuable than Ceci, Kulak, Nurse and even Ekholm. Once should not become fixated on an instant in time. Remember…who were we going to get for trading Draisaitl and Nurse to Montreal–P.K. Subhan. Measuring from the point in time when that trade proposal was under consideration, where was the true value? It was with Draisaitl and Nurse–they had duration on their side.
I wonder if Holland’s team is not offer sheeted because he’s Holland. Could be.
Slowman out of the league for years and almost certainly has little respect around the league
Because of the Cups won (envy) and the crap show in Chicago. No GM is going to deal straight with him. JJ seems to have shown the agent side well at the TD and crapped the bed with team management. Sad. We’ve suffered enough
Holland will end up sooner than you think in a advisory role with his home team Detroit.
Bah
Did the Oilers know this was coming and refused to budge? Say bump they’re off to 1.6 or 1.8 for Holloway.
don’t know.
my gut says hit the road, Jack. You signed it, you bailed.
Holloway I liked.
Broberg can play hockey but cannot stand up to the rough game.
I hope the Arena in St Louis burns down. Empty of course but screw you guys.
Agreed. Holloway adds, Bro is worth the contract but I’m not sure he is what they need really
Broberg is something they need; Holloway as well. The problem is their having some of what they don’t need.
Really? Broberg IMHO . while he looks very promising, has not trvelled enough road yet to justify that salary. He is the greater risk to fall short on expectations. Lest we forget, prospects always break your heart…
Can Broberg stand up to the rigours of top 4 eighty-two game schedule. He seems to put himself in vulnerable positions for no apparent reasons. St.Louis is not only breaking the code but 4.7 million for a unproven Broberg isn’t chopped liver.
Broberg was showing flashes of Nick Lidstrom in the playoffs, while demonstrating that he has learned not to make himself so vulnerable.
I think if the oilers believe broberg can play top 4 you match no question, and sort out the cap after. Holloway I would have to think on, he is probably more easily replaced. At the end of the day edmonton knows the players best so let’s see what they decide.
Yet the same people who must make the decision are the one’s whose decisions, or lack thereof, led us to the precipice. I am not confident of what is going to transpire.
So Broberg value to the oilers is 4.7/year
or
Save 4.7m/year a get second round pick
or
sign and trade him for who?
What has most value?
Why does this offer sheet tactic seem so cheap? Who wouldn’t trade a second or a third for these players?
If Nurse gets 9+ million per year, Broberg is easily worth 4.7 per year. Broberg is the better defenceman already.
Stauffer on his show was adamant that Ken Holland was instructed by upper management to get deals done for Holloway and Broberg… as early as January.
Broberg wanted a trade around that time. Dont see him wanting to sign
True but for sure would of seen Holloway signing. Stauffer was more specific with Holloway saying the comparables brought to Holland were Hoglander and Podolzkin
So Holland was instructed to sign Holloway to a 2 x $1.0-1.1M deal? And it’s on Holland that Holloway went unsigned?
Never mind that Holloway remained unsigned months after Holland officially left the organization.
That’s honestly a very weird one from Stauffer.
Smacks a bit of attempted damage control by the organization, attempting to throw the departed under the bus for the situation they currently find themselves in.
Podkolzin didn’t even sign until April 18th, BTW.
There are lots of people around to share the responsibility for this fiasco, including Holland.
It was obvious it had to be done. Holland over payed vets and ground ELC players. Mickey Mouse in strategic terms given the situation
I am firmly convinced his decades in Detroit and the unionist auto industry impacted how he thought and worked. What GM talks gladly openly about players needing ‘raises’
In pro sports you earn those. And judge if they are worth anything higher based on the cap and player contribution in what the team needs
To the Oilers and our detriment
Wasn’t Broberg in Bakersfield then? This statement from Stauffer seems improbable. The problem was Broberg was slow-played. Once a player is ready, you need to play him and ship out the mid tier veteran.
December 5th was when the trade request was out there, I believe.
For interest’s sake, RFAs for ST Louis next offseason include Torpchenko (middle six player), Neighbors (good scoring numbers worth a closer look for an offer sheet…) Hofer (a very good looking young goalie), Alexandrov has just over 40 NHL games so far and popgun offence -pass) and Tyler Tucker LD/RD 6-1 204 with 52 NHL games to date over past 2 years. none of their other RFAs are likely to hit the NHL games threshold. If their Cap situation next offseason presents an opportunity, we could possibly target, in order of preference, Neighbors, Hofer, Torpchenko and Tucker. If all four are in a situation where Cap limits their offers and are open to offer sheets, I would go nuclear and do it in two waves. neighbors at 4.5m or so and Torpchenko at2.29m or so. Compensation of a 2nd and a 3rd pick, which we have. if neighbors really pops this year – and he has been doing very well , we offer 5m or more as we have room for (1st and 3rd) and offer enough to Torpchenko to make his compensation a 2nd. If St Louis matches either or both we look at Torpchenko and/or Tucker. what say you about the relative skillsets of these four players, friends? Do any or all have the needed skills – speed/2 way game/phyicality or what have you – to interest the Oilers?
The Oilers don’t have first or second round picks next year.
And in order to pitch an offer sheet you need to have your own picks.
It would be for the year after, right? These players are RFAs at the end of next season. Patience
Well you need to have your own picks of the following year
It is the 2026 picks that would be need to cover next offseason on any offer sheets.
So metaphorically Armstrong shot us in the foot and your answer is grabbing a gun and shooting us in the other foot?
I wouldn’t propose massively overpaying like St Louis has done. The idea of a well-executed offer sheet is to still come away with reasonable contracts. If it doesn’t work then you’ve forced a team who “shot you in the foot,” borrowing this analogy, to at least get a few bruises in return
The oilers were in a vulnerable position which allowed this too happen. Overpaying on contracts and paying draft capital on top is bad management. Even more egregious doing it for depth players.
You mean, like St Louis is attempting to do? And the Oilers messed it up?
Broberg’s year to crack the club was this past season, and he did. It should have been earlier, no doubt. Not sure it would have prevented the current situation. He’s worth 2.5 as a typical RFA, not 4.5. I don’t fault St Louis for exploiting it but I question the wisdom of it. I also think once the unwritten rule is broken the floodgates are open.
People here are saying we deplete the youth pool by not matching. There are other ways to get it back that involve sensible choices.
St Louis expects the Oilers to match one. Don’t match either, and they are now stuck with 2 overpriced RFAs when they were likely planning for one. Suddenly they are up against the cap, and can’t re sign Neighbours unless he takes a discount.
The Oilers are trying to win a cup while working on or getting ready to work on extensions for their franchise players. Not even remotely comparable situations.
Not sure what you are referring to with this comment
The Blues currently have $7.3 million in cap space with a full 23 man roster.
It is very likely that Torey Krug and his $6.5 million cap hit will soon disappear thanks to arthritis in his ankle.
The Blues are far from cap strapped.
His cap hit will definitely not dissapear – that’s not how LTIR works.
The Oilers worked hard to develop Broberg and Holloway, and St. Louis will reap the rewards. I like this move by St. Louis.
Its unlikely the Oilers will have the necessary picks (their own picks) but, more importantly, the cap space to “retaliate”
Retaliation is the wrong approach. Sign and keep good young players. Do not overpay anyone.
Offer sheets are by definition overpaid
Not an option as it stands
I can’t wait to find out this is all payback for something Stan did with Blackhawks
man attempted offersheet or something
Holloway can go all the way to St Louis.
Once the Blues handcuff themselves with overpriced RFAs, Oilers can dual offer sheet Toropchenko and Neighbours, both of whom are better than Dylan. Hofer is a great young goalie, too
Do you think the Oilers are in a position to do an offer sheet?
Exactly
Oilers were a ripe target because of
slow playing the players making targets likely to sign
unlikely to have cap space or draft capital to retaliate
we have all our picks next year. Possibly coming off the books are Skinner 3m, Brown 1m, Ceci 3.25m, Neal buyout 1,916,667, and our Cap overage carryover for next year will be at least 2.2m less this year and quite possibly be no bonus overage at all to worry about. So… it could be done. Also, the roster at the end of the year for either team will assuredly be different than it is right now. It is a distinct possibility there might be an option for us there.
Got to look at Drai Bouch Skinner raises first
It might serve the Oilers well to get Bouchard extended ASAP.
They should, but if you spend 4 first round picks on a player you’re hosing your own teams future so I’m not too worried about that one.
No but by Armstrong pulling a Kevin Lowe he opened himself up to 31 other G.M’s pulling a fast one on him. Armstrong may have one the battle today but the franchise will pay for it in spades down the road.
On a positive note, if you’re worried that the $ from your $200 jerseys and $20 beers is being wasted, I can absolutely assure you based on recent photographic evidence that it’s been wisely invested in lakefront property and haute couture.
The upper class sends their regards.
— Maybe they go offer sheet guys ….
— Not sure how to generate the list of eligible offer sheet guys: curious to see that list.
— Offer sheet back a STL guy.
— some smart people on this blog had recognized the risk and others over years wondered why we didn’t do it when we were kaka.
— incorporate that into the playbook all day
I might give it a stab later in the year.
List the teams and their Cap room for next year, look at UFAs needing new deals and adjust for likely outcomes to get a new total, List RFAs who have met the following requirements:
Check their stats and see if any are likely to be of interest.
It should be relatively easy at the trade deadline to suss out the Cap situations for both signed players and pending UFAs, and then easy to update after FA date. Then it is just a matter of managing the RFA list, starting with an initial list, qualified by desired positions and skills at the Trade deadline and to pare it down heading into and through the offseason by who is QOd, signed etc to get an ongoing list of targets. I would look especially for teams who are in a Cap crunch first, and then others who have too many bad contracts and may be averse to any another overpay… but YMMV.
— yeah send that when you can!
— for teams with cap it’s a no brainer : or teams that want to accelerate a rebuild and can’t get trades done. Or teams that just want to screw over other teams for competitive reasons.
There’s still some UFA’s available. John Klingberg RHD along with Barrie & Schultz. Also, Filip Zadina, Nick Cousins, Jakub Vrana & Tyler Johnson that might fit as fourth liners and have some tread left.
If we don’t match and if Lavoie doesn’t make the roster will have 0 draft picks on the squad under Holland’s 5 year watch.
We have a lot of old 4th line forwards – Perry, Ryan, Janmark
we have lot of expensive third pair defensemen – Ceci, Kulak and cheap Brown, Stetcher.
I would be moving the some combination of these guys vs. Holloway and Broberg.
Janmark is only 32 years young. Cut him some slack.
Janmark is only 6 months older than Makarov was when he won rookie of the year.
All of these years of pixels being spilled by posters about potential doomsday scenarios of another team signing our players to an offer sheet… and it finally happens.
Damn
Does Stan Bowman have any friends? Like friends that are general managers of NHL teams with cap space.
So for it looks quite the contrary
Let them go today, let it be known it’s not a hard decision.
We will be fine. We get the last laugh when Drai and McDavid sign, hoist a cup.
Remember all the hate comes from jealousy. We are fans of the best hockey team in the world.
you cant ask guys to take a pay cut and then throw money at entitled unproven players. St. Louis screwed us but it is what it is. Take the pics and move on. Try to find a cheap D that can play with nurse cause you can’t do Nurse Ceci again
Yes. If Oilers match, can you imagine how these two jokers are going to look to the other guys who have taken a discount when they walk into the room on training camp? Broberg has a history of being disgruntled with his development (rightly so), but Holloway’s been treated very well. This is them flipping the bird to the rest of the team.
It really isn’t.
Given these contract levels you laugh loudly, collect the picks and walk away.
Signing Broberg to that contract is offensive to everyone currently on defense for the Oilers including Nurse. Seriously, its offensive. There is no data that suggests he’s anywhere in the same stratosphere as that contract.
Holloway has demonstrated nothing even remotely close to the value of offer sheet. He doesn’t PK, he doesn’t score unless he’s with McDrai, hell its hard for him to nail his line changes three games in a row. Goofy to suggest he’s worth that when Janmark is a better bet to outscore him next season haha.
This is unfortunate but whatever. Go find more vets on the cheap who want to win, after all that’s the goal, and promote up the non-entitled youngins playing in the AHL. Left defensemen are a dime a dozen and when you’re scoring 350 it won’t be hard to find a guy.
Assuming drat gets 13.5 mil and bouchard gets 9.25 mil with existing other player contracts in place and the campbell buyout oilers would have just under 3 mil to spend next offseason. And assuming a 4% rise in the cap next offseason.
If holloway and broberg walk.
Kane-Mcd-Hyms
Nuge-Drat-Arvidson
Player X- Henrique-savoie
Janmark-Philp-Lavoie
Ekholm-bouche
nurse-Player y
Kulak-Wanner
Brown
Skinner
Rodrigue
or if you trade kane but keep broberg and holloway you have 1.2 mil
Holloway-Mcd-Hyms
Nuge-Drat-Arvidson
X-Henrique-Savoie
Janmark-Philp-Lavoie
Ekholm- Bouche
Nurse-Broberg
Kulak-Wanner
Brown
Skinner
Rodrigue
Why would Bouchard settle for $9.25 million?
With cap inflation his comparables will be $10+
Kane has a NMC and you can’t trade him if he is on LTIR.
i do not foresee bouchard getting more than 10% of the cap.
Look at contracts to quinn hughes, adam fox, cale makar.
The talk of bouche getting 10 mil + is grossly overblown.
Hughes signed his deal in 2021
Makar signed his deal in 2021
Fox signed his deal in 2023.
The cap will have jumped significantly by the time Bouchard signs.
All 3 would be well over $10 – $12 million if they signed at the same time.
also get your facts straight. kane does not have a NMC next season.
Kane has a full NMC until March 2025 and then a 15 team trade list.
How many of those teams do you think would want to add a $5.125 million contract for a player who hasn’t played much all season?
You certainly can trade players on LTIR.
Has this ever happened before a double offer sheet? Of course it would happen to Edmonton.
I think the closest scenario would be the San Jose Kansas City Shuffle, but that wasn’t precisely the same.
Interestingly, the only prior double offer sheets were signed by St. Louis Blues players all the way back in 1991.
The Oilers have been subject to (Oilers players have agreed to sign) a LOT of offer sheets over the years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NHL_players_who_have_signed_offer_sheets
I didn’t count them up, but I’m pretty certain the Oilers lead the league in offer sheets extended to their players and signed.
Match Broberg and let Hollie go. And sign UFA Steven Lorentz who played great in the bottom 6 for the Panthers. Probably get him for $1.5MM per?
$1.5MM?
He has a career high of 19 points and had 3 last season (plus 3 in the playoffs). He was -9 on the Panthers last season (and I don’t think the minus was skewed by ENG against)…..
So I’m guessing the 2Mutts street cred for rumours is kind of down the toilet?
Given Chiarelli is with the Blues now, does this make Broberg the next Griffin Reinhart?
Yeah, I don’t think so either. This one is going to hurt.
Trade Ceci and Kulak, match both broberg and Holloway. Pick up Barrie or Schultz on the cheap, maybe both.
Ekholm Bouchard
nurse barrie
broberg Schultz
pie in the sky I know. But I don’t think our defense got us to the cup final last year. At least not anyone below Bouchard Ekholm.
all out offense from the back end.
Possibly one of Schultz or Barrie, not both. Although Nurse with either of those two really?
I think they could do better.
I could be wrong but I recall Barrie doing pretty decent with nurse. Would give the Draisatl line a good offensive guy with a good first pass since bouch is stapled to mcdavid.
Not to mention the talk of running two power plays this year. Barrie runs the 2nd
i will have to go back and do a deep dive but i seem to remember draisaitls numbers with barrie improving 5v5.
sid used to constantly post about how barrie was dragging mcdavid down and how they should give bear the minutes barrie was getting with 97 and i remember looking at it and seeing drats numbers improve with barrie.
Yes to Barrie at $1M x 1. No to Schultz.
Both Kulak and Ceci are luxuries that we can live without.
Gotta bet on Youts!
I’m not sure you can trade either Ceci or Kulak without attaching an asset to them.
Definitely not now as we are painted into a corner.
They might have an extra 2nd & 3rd round pick and a prospect to add. If they lose Broberg I can’t see them moving Kulak. But they might want to find Nursey a right-handed partner, making Ceci vulnerable.
TBL being sold at a valuation of close to $2 billion.!
Vinik bought the team for $170 million.
https://x.com/friedgehnic/status/1823448672241107387?s=61
Honestly, who are these sucker billionaires buying teams on the down-swing at peak prices!?!? Not smart money management on their part.
on the other hand, selling a team after their best-before date and winning a couple Stanley’s for over 1000% of return, is a no brainer! Good for him!
— suspect they will be talking about “peak price” for decades (just as they have for many previous decades)
— Live sports is the only game in town for media and streaming companies. Way more crazy billionaires today than ever who can buy these teams.
— In10 years the big 4 professional teams have so many paths to huge multiples of today. Unless you think that streaming and the companies with 100s of billions to spend on content are going south.
— And yeah good for him for selling and making a bundle: but no way it’s peak price: just a great pass for an individual investor..
I might let them walk. I don’t like penciling Broberg in at 2RD and this move cements him there – and its too much $ for 3LD. Holloways money could be reasonable as I could see him earning 3rd line minutes.
If we do match.. (trading Ceci etc).. and with Kane on LTIR (so not accruing cap).. then that is the roster we are going into the playoffs with. While we are better up front, the D would be weaker.. I’m not excited about that. I’d like to keep the flexibility in the now window.
If the oilers don’t match this is a good move for broberg and not as good a move for Holloway looking to their futures.
Torey Krug’s injury put St. Louis in the unique position of being able to offer sheet Broberg and Holloway. Broberg will likely be playing top 4 minutes on their LD from game 1. Agree with you that Holloway will be pressed for playing time on St. Louis, and quite frankly may not even be a regular in their lineup, unless they start accumulating some injuries at forward.
That said, I’d rather just accept the 2nd and 3rd round picks from St. Louis and then find a way to use those assets to acquire a true RHD for the 2nd pairing. St. Louis will also be tied up financially moving forward, which takes one more player out of the market when UFA season starts next summer.
Jake Neighbours is going to want to get paid next year.
What an up and down couple of months! A great start to free agency followed by hiring a clown for a GM and then these two offer sheets. Hopefully they have a plan…
I think Holloway saw that there was a very good chance that the lines would be
Nuge Mcdavid Hyman
Skinner Drai Arvidsson
Janmark Henrique Brown
and he would be burried
And as much as I’d like him to turn into a young Hyman I think he’s gonna be more Foggy
Here’s what St. Louis has:
Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou
Neighbours-Schenn-Saad
Texier-Faksa-Sundqvist
Toropchenko-Joseph-Kapanen
They have their own top prospects in Zach Dean (1st round pick 2021), and Zach Bolduc (1st round pick 2021) who are both younger than Holloway (1st round pick 2020).
They have a ton of left shot forwards up and down their lineup … I’m not sure that Holloway won’t get buried in that lineup. I like Holloway plenty, but it’s an easy decision to let him walk at the price that St.Louis just signed him to.
I think their real target is Broberg.
DH has a lot more hockey IQ I think. But he is a highly replaceable player. The issue with losing Bro is there is only Wanner anywhere close on the farm. The D group is going to lose Ek soon enough with no replacement
I’d match Bro and trade him, or in fantasy world Nurse, next year, going to get more than a 2nd for him if he pops
Holloway would be playing 3LW ahead for Janmark I would think.
I also believe Holloway would end up playing plenty of 2nd line as I think he would earn top 6 time and Arvidsson can certainly be effective as 3RW.