I talk about clusters so much people email me and tell me to stop it. Seriously. The reason I talk so much about it, or have in the past, is the Oilers (for a long time) had few roster players in the fourth cluster (29+) because those men were being sent away. I loved the thought of the 29+ cluster housing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. We are there, and all is well in three of the four clusters. The problem now? The poor cluster is the young one. That’s very very bad.
THE 29+ CLUSTER 2023-24 (17)
Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Derek Ryan, Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, Josh Brown, Troy Stecher, Calvin Pickard.
This is 70+ percent of the Oilers opening night roster (potentially). It’s also about 70+ percent of the possible injuries this coming season, possibly more. It must be acknowledged: What an impressive group! These are mostly top-flight options, and at the high end (Hyman, Ekholm, Nuge) we are talking foundation pieces for a roster that could win the Stanley Cup. Taken alone, without consideration for the other clusters, this is probably the best pool of age 29+ talent in team history. Downbeat: They’re old.
THE 26-28 CLUSTER (2)
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
The glimmer twins are alone on an island now. That’s okay, if there’s enough around them. I think we can say that the 29+ grouping is a handsome cluster of contributors, even to the point that two or three can help push the river. You would love another name here, but Lane Pederson is the next man up in this age group and I don’t see him as a lock to make the team.
THE 23-25 CLUSTER (3)
Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner, James Hamblin
This is a small group but an impressive one. Evan Bouchard is the third best player on the team, and it’s an excellent team. Stuart Skinner is both a young starter (valuable!) and battle hardened from multiple Stanley Cup springs. You’d love Holloway and Broberg on this list (Broberg is 23 and Holloway is a month away), but the numbers don’t rhyme. Absolute murder by Doug Armstrong.
THE 18-23 CLUSTER (1)
Matthew Savoie
I chose Savoie as the lone man from the young cluster who could make the opening night roster. It could be Lane Pederson or maybe the club loves Noah Philp in preseason, but I wanted to have one representative from the department of youth for discussion purposes. Math tells us Savoie is ready. The Oilers are just seeing the results of slow-playing young players so contract control can be utilized. Perhaps a lesson will be learned, and Savoie, should he dominate preseason or in the AHL, will get a look sometime this season.
The Lowdown hits at noon, Sports 1440, and that raining down of blows on Oilers management will continue unabated. I was surprised at how many people were enraged at Stan Bowman on the text line yesterday, we may delve into that item today. Our friend Bagged Milk will drop in from Oilers Nation, and we’ll talk Blue Jays and NFL training camps. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Friedman
“Both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway have been informed they are St. Louis Blues. Oilers do not match.”
https://x.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1825885076900487192?t=mCqOr4aVdeHk-yDifp_b-Q&s=19
There seems to be legitimate risk that matching on Holloway could interfere in the locker room and the Draisaitl, McDavid and Bouchard negotiations. Friedman mentioned it. That’s not a risk worth taking.
Counter point: Friedman has never been in a room worth mentioning.
Most of those I’ve heard who have, say business is business. Once guys are in the room together, the focus is on how to win and everything else is set aside.
At least, that’s how I (as an outsider) would envision a healthy room functioning from the inside.
Pretty sure the locker room is well aware how these two were treated by the org. A few others in the locker room – so call established vets – made more egregious mistakes in spite of their higher positions with fewer consequences.
That’s the thing about taking a discount, everyone has to take a discount or it doesn’t work. Darnell didn’t take a penny of a discount, and now we’re reaping the reward. The org created this imbalance; i dont blame Darnell for signing something so egregious but how can you look at Bro and say ‘this guy is 9x better than you’.
Indeed. Especially when McLeod took a haircut for the team and his reward was getting shipped off to Buffalo. That deal, which I like a lot by the way, sent a message to anyone coming off an ELC about how the team rewards loyalty.
The guys who haven’t any career earnings nor immediate expectations of a massive windfall do not have to take discounts.
Holloway signed for just over two million of two years. He has earned basically no money in his career. Really on one year of his entry level deal…$1 million…30 or 40% taxed away. That has zero impact on the big three. $2 million something is still near 100% likely to be a value deal.
McDavid and Draisaitl can earn $2 million in sponsorship deals.
Quarterbacks treat their offensive linemen better than anybody else.
Sunil making excellent points and is clearly not a fan of Scottysson:
https://thesuperfan.ca/2024/08/15/the-edmonton-oilers-and-diminishing-value/
Posted much to late in the eve. Love Sunil’s work.
I don’t know about that article. Sure in an ideal world you can lock up all your young players to super long, super cheap contracts but as we’ve seen the players have a say in that as well. He also assumes that both Broberg and Holloway are going to be impact players on the roster, something neither player has actually shown yet.
It’s interesting how much he criticises Holland’s MO when Holland’s team just went to game 7 of the Stanley cup final and has been knocked out of playoffs by the champs 3 years running.
— of those 3 losses to cup winners only this years Cup final matters. It’s just a “neat” coincidence that the playoff schedule aligned so that as the lower seeded team they lost to the higher seeded team who ended up winning the cup.
— Save last year they only “also in photo” for Cup chances under Holland era
— 1 conference banner during his tenure and the current age curve of this group with little D&D in the pipeline that’s going to help with McDrai in their prime is poor execution IMO
— Stan just going to reapply the Blackhawk way: with a core he inherited, get old guys and bleed value
— Oh well. At least next year regardless of outcome they have to be one of the favorites
Lots of talk of players, managers, GMs and POHOs. Not as much talk of agents. I don’t know a lot about the agents. But they seem to be a major factor in all of these happenings.
According to a few stories agents are always asking for offer sheets, and GMs don’t pursue them. This seems like a gentleman’s agreement between GMs, to decline the agents requests.
Certainly as a very successful agent, the possibility of an offer sheet would have been on Jackson’s mind. But possibly his experience of GMs never pursuing them also played a factor . Certainly he would also have been aware of the dynamics between Armstrong and Holland. And if there were any also aware of the dynamics between Bowman and Armstrong.
But the Kane situation makes it feel like Jackson was surprised. Those changes are also related to an agent.
Dan Milstein is Kane’s agent. And he’s also Kucherov’s agent. He was Kucherov’s agent when the Bolt hurt his hip in the playoffs, then spent the entire season on LTIR getting hip surgery, then came back the first game of the playoffs. Dan Milstein has been through this before.
My impression when Kane was posting pictures of his family on vacation was that Milstein had suggested them. Knowing Kane’s history with social media, it wouldn’t surprise me if Milstein or another lawyer has someone who works with Kane on his presence. And given the insanity displayed by Kane’s ex, there’s definitely other advantages to showing a healthy happy daddy. They definitely wanted it to be known that Kane was NOT going for surgery. Why? Probably the suggestion of an agent. I believe it’s because they were going to time a surgery for later in the season so that Kane could go on LTIR until the playoffs started.
As someone with oversight on social media campaigns, I hope to hell his handlers can extract the success rate you suggest is so casually at hand.
I’m going to comment on the weakness of the forward group.
They lost an entire third line.
Foegele – McLeod – Holloway
Ryan and Perry have no business being on this roster.
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
performed in playoffs, but they are not the third line for the season, they are fourth line.
They need a third line of size, energy and speed. So far they have an injured Kane to work with.
The top six, they way it’s all built around skill, it needs support. Energy support and physicality support.
If they can provide a third line without Holloway, go get it. I don’t think they can.
Henrique is very much a third line player, minimum – even if he doesn’t play with size, energy and speed.
I believe Holloway will play on his left wing most of the season.
Henrique would be an excellent mentor for Holloway.
Another way to look at it, excluding rentals is:
Holloway-McLoed-Foegele
were replaced with
Skinner-Henrique-Arvidsson.
Those are slower players from the older clump. But all three are a major upgrade.
No, the forward group took a universal step forward before the offer sheet issue affected one middle six player and a middle six defender.
This is catastrophism in overdrive.
And what about the Defence group? Was not addressed during July. In fact many would argue the forward upgrades are more one-dimensional skill guys leaving the D even more exposed.
Losing Broberg will be tough on the D group, even if he is a ‘middle six defender’ – which basically means he is top 4.
23/24 playoffs
Mcleod GP 24 GF% 25
Foegele GP 22 GF% 34.62
Holloway GP 25 GF% 58.33
22/23 playoffs
Mcleod GP 12 GF% 44.44
Foegele GP 12 GF% 37.50
I don’t know what they were looking at, but I would have made a spot for Holloway last season by removing the winger that struggles in the playoffs, give DH a season to settle in before playoffs, while also gaining cap
And been looking around for a better 3C and trying to make a spot for Bro while rebalancing the D. The D group was a playoff problem 22/23, and not surprisingly 23/24
Getzlaf joining the player safety department? I hate this league so much…
The guy who intentionally destroyed Sekera’s career over being mildly embarrassed is going to work on “safety”.
Eff off…
How is that any different than the last Disney character in Parros?
Colin Campbell of all guys was in charge for one metric forever.
Meet the old boss, same as the new boss; as much as things change, they stay the same.
In the event they decide to let HollowBro go I think there’s a way to get cap compliant without having to trade anyone but it involves sending Janmark down before day 1.
You run
Nuge-McD-Hyman
Skinner-Drai-Arvidsson
Hamblin-Henrique-Brown
Perry-Savoie-Stonehouse (who’s contract dollars are perfect for this)
Kane
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Brown
Skinner-Pickard
You run this and according to PuckPedia you’re at $0 cap space and have all the bonuses are on the roster. I’m always unsure around LTIR but this should allow you to maximize Kane’s cap space no?
Savoie and Stonehouse are waivers exempt so house money there. Janmark and Ryan go down in the waiver rush and the extra years are likely to make Janmark an unappealing target. Hamblin also has an extra year and is a dime a dozen when he needs to be sent down. After day one you can bring up Janmark, Ryan and Stecher and send down Brown and Stonehouse. Very easy to run a 21 to 23 man roster if I have the LTIR correct. Also easier to get cap compliant should Kane come off LTIR early.
Ha you got that down to 0. Incredible. I would for sure take janmark on waivers if in another gm. But that said, It shows ae should be able to fit Kane when he comes back, just need 1 little trade.
If kulak and ceci get traded it sheds 5.85M. Broberg in at 4.58 gives us 1.27 in room. We could fit everyone then. We’d have a bigger hole at 3rhd the we started with.
We could get picks for Ceci and kulak, accrue a tiny bit of cap space, make a deadline trade with the picks.
Doesnt seem safe, popular and probably makes us worse.
There would be no cap accrual while Kane is on LTIR.
Stecher very likely gets claimed as well – two years for just over league min.
I think they’d send down Josh Brown over Stecher – he won’t get claimed at 3 years. Sure, that would reduce the cap overage abilities by $212,500 but they can’t risk losing Stecher if Klef is let go.
‘Klef’ eh? Intentional or slip? 😎
David Staples with a summation of Elliotte Friedman’s thoughts on the Broberg dynamic.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/oilers-bombshells-broberg-may-be-unhappy-in-edmonton-and-no-way-offer-happens-with-holland-in-charge
Broberg reminds of Puljujarvi with the trade demands, and insistence that he should determine his place in the lineup.
Lowetide says on the radio that he uses evidence to make decisions. Then makes a decision and writes what he thinks.
I see the analytics that supported Puljujarvi as an Oiler. LT saw the evidence and made the decision to support the player.
There isn’t really very much data supporting Broberg as a top-4 defender in the NHL, and the data doesn’t support him playing the right side. And now the above article says that Broberg doesn’t want to play the right side next to Nurse. No kidding.
Broberg’s play with good analytics is in the minutes he played with Bouchard.
So the evidence is that Broberg wants to play top-4 on the left side, and that he signed a contract with a dollar figure that aligns with that position.
-We know we can’t move Nurse. And it seems doubtful that Nurse would become third pairing. I would support that demotion. But I don’t think it will happen. But it’s a possibility.
-Nobody thinks moving Ekholm is a good idea. That said, Broberg’s best play was with Bouchard. If you’re really bullish on Broberg I see the justification for putting Broberg on a pairing with Bouchard. Ekholm also has difficulties on the right side. You can trade Ekholm. But I like Ekholm-Bouchard. I think I want that next season.
-You can move Kulak. But today Kulak is cheaper than Broberg, as fast as Broberg, and has better analytics. So is that what you do? Overpay your 2LD Nurse and your 3LD Broberg? And possibly have Broberg upset that he’s third pairing?
There’s a lot of evidence here presented by the insider of all insiders and second most intelligent man in sports broadcasting, Elliotte Friedman, that causes one to take the decision not to match. The weird thing though is that the present GM is not the GM who caused Broberg’s upset. But weirdly enough triggered the offer sheet by his relationship or lack there of with Armstrong.
For me, this article was more evidence that Edmonton isn’t the right place for Broberg to live up to his second-pairing contract.
Yep.
And Broberg agrees,
Man, so much talk about how the Oilers ‘should have known’ and that they were negligent in not being prepared.
Yet in the 10 years before Broberg/Holloway signed their offer sheets there was only 1 genuine offer sheet across the entire league (Kotkaniemi’s would never have happened if not for Montreal targeting Aho). 10 years.
And Aho was a star – had just scored 83 points on his ELC. Ryan O’Reilly and Shea Webber were the last 2 players before Aho to sign offer sheets. Young, but high end, established players.
You need to go all the way back to Steve Bernier in 2008 to find a player (before Broberg and Holloway) who signed an offer sheet at a pro-rated Cap hit less than $5.4M.
Offer sheets for non-established players have been exceedingly rare.
The situation the Oilers find themselves in sucks, but half the teams in the league put themselves in the same position year after year. The last comparable offer sheet that was signed happened literally 16 years ago.
While it’s very much in vogue, I’m finding it pretty tough to hammer the team in this situation for their failings.
So true. Well said
Yet some of us told you that there was a good chance that someone would come for Broberg and Holloway in June.
New younger managements in the NFL, MLB, and NBA have become hyper-aggressive. It was only a matter of time that it would come to the NHL.
If an old curmudgeon typing away on his keyboard in his basement knows, why doesn’t Jeff Jackson with his multimillion dollar salary.
Yes, Armstrong with his side-kick Chiarelli – the new age aggressive young tandem of the league….
Sure, but some raise the alarm over this stuff year after year after year.
Some were also worried over Benson being taken in the expansion draft.
I don’t think ‘knows’ and ‘good chance’ mean the same thing to you and I.
They would have needed a crystal ball.
Yet many are yelling at the sky.
About par for the course, really.
Just because nobody was doing it wasn’t a sufficient defense for not putting in place reasonable safeguards.
A simple outsiders analysis would have turned up how vulnerable the Oilers were to being poached in this manner.
Holloway has 18 pts in 89 regular season NHL games.
Broberg has averaged 12:42 in 81 regular season NHL games.
I’m too lazy to go write something to confirm, but I have a very strong suspicion that really good NHL futures don’t have those kinds of thin gruel pasts by their 23rd year.
The Oilers without Holloway and Broberg? Not a difference would it make.
You lose those two, you get a full season of Henrique, Arvidsson, AND Skinner. You come out ahead. With a hopefully non-herniated Kane arriving later to boot. Say knock, knock to any of the AHL’ers. Ethan Bear (!) played 22 minutes a night on first pair in his age 22 year. KY (!) scored 26 points in 27 games in his 21st year. Young guys get hot, they can fit roles for a while. Bouchard wasn’t Bouchard until we traded Barrie. He was a 3rd pair possible bust. Unblock someone else.
Nothing about Holloway’s and Broberg’s pasts warrant worrying too much about missed futures. Not a single noticeable season. Better players serve notice and make a mark by this point in the career trajectory. And better players go on to put up numbers, year in, year out (see Bear and KY not sustaining).
The contract offer to Broberg is laughable. Holloway’s is annoying. Armstrong is being lauded for offering Broberg numbers that Harley will be getting… on much, much thinner evidence. What cunning! How strategic!
First rounders should show up early (by production, specialist role, or TOI). If they don’t, don’t let them block your other prospects. The folks here who point out that young iffy NHLers cover up many of their blemishes by being cheap but then show all their blemishes when they stop being cheap are exactly right.
Mangiapane and his contract was worth a 2nd round pick? Sold!
My own survey of what’s out there leads me to think that neither Holloway or Broberg are that special, just that they’re the ideal vectors for cap casualties. A mid-tier team with cap space aggressively looking to improve, especially before turning over the reins at the GM level (and thus secure a favourable legacy for the outgoing GM), is the exact template that suggests EDM was vulnerable.
Nobody is pinching Seider, Beniers, Mercer, or Swayman. Those guys are legit. Cream of the RFA crop.
EDM was targeted for an exposed weakness, plain and simple.
I’ll full well admit, when I was talking about exploiting market inefficiencies and tendering offers to the likes of Kakko, etc, I was mostly going for table scraps that could possibly level up/gain value.
Which better players on D do you see ‘serving notice’ and filling the gap that everyone had Broberg slotted in?
just curious.
And I think they should let Broberg walk.
It really was an exceedingly shrewd move by Armstrong. Two players at once? Revenge for firing Holland? For hiring Bowman? For firing Chiarelli? (almost certainly). Even for Kevin Lowe’s RFA signings? Waiting until the buyout window is closed? Waiting late enough that a match-and-trade-one-year-later comes well after July 1?
It’s all designed to extract maximum pain from us.
Will it ensure maximum gain for St. Louis? That’s another question. Carolina’s results with Jesperi Kotkaniemi have been rather mixed. They’ve paid him $15.7M and gotten 227-42-57-99 in three seasons. An average of $5M+/yr for 14 goals a year.
The offer sheet game is below-zero-sum game where one team loses a lot more than another one gains.
If Armstrong made these offers out of revenge he should be fired immediately. His job is to improve his team. I doubt it was revenge for any of those
None of that suggests malice, where simply exploiting a publicly visible weakness (or more) can be proposed as a suitable alternative.
What no one seems to be mentioning in their critiques of Oilers Management, was that a multiple offer sheet from St Louis was not on the radar as even possible until they reacquired their second round pick from Pittsburgh, shortly before the offer sheets were signed. Given the rarity of offer sheets in the NHL and their lack of success in prying said players loose, the management made a calculated gamble and I don’t think anyone saw St Louis reacquiring the 2nd round pick AND making such a massive overpay offer for Broberg. Stuff happens, but I maintain it was a reasonable call by Oilers management at the time leading up to the chain of events over the last few days. Bold move by Armstrong, and, although I like Broberg’s POTENTIAL, I don’t see anyone else in the league who would have reasonably wanted him at that price over the next two years. A shortsighted and desperate move by St Louis I think, that will likely bite them in the nethers if Broberg doesn’t come close to covering the bet at that price over the contract term.
At that price point, STL is betting he can be a left side second pairing D with either Parayko or Faulk as his veteran partner.
The Oilers were betting he would be a second pairing D playing on his offside but didn’t want to pay him for that responsibility.
On.a two year term, with the cap rising significantly over those two years, It’s a very reasonable bet and should it go south they should easily be able to recoup a second round pick.
There is negligible risk for St. Louis. The contract is only two years. They get a high pedigree all tool young left D ready to play right now. They are in playoffs now mode, but not in contender now mode. If Broberg soils the bed, their own young D prospects will be ready in two years. If it is a disaster, Broberg is a 1/3rd buyout next year.
It is a time-money arbitrage with limited and controlled risk for St. Louis.
On a team that likely is bottom 8 in the league.
They have very little hope this year.
This was a great try to get better immediately and maybe if both hit make them a playoff team in the near future.
No real down side IMO.
In the last year you see teams going long earlier on players. I think the potential of a offer sheet by a loose cannon G.M is a big reason why. Kevin’ Lowe thought he was the man with the numerous offer sheets he put out because he was frustrated he couldn’t attract any decent free agents.The Oilers franchise paid for it in spades for years. Armstrong might think he’s the cats ass but it’s dirty pool and this will follow him around like bad hygiene.
Smart GM’s are extending their core prospects early before the cap jumps significantly to over $100 million and salaries soar,
That also prohibits offer sheets as a side effect but is not the primary motivation.
This is very true. This move is totally legal but will make STL a pariah for years to come. Few offer sheets go through but many more are informally offered to players. I communicate with key STL agents every year the intension to offer sheet select high quality guys coming off ELC (like Neighbors next year). Offer Neighbors agent the Broberg contract and that becomes the negotiation starting point for STL. This alone makes their negotiations much more difficult and they have lost their ability to low-ball guys coming off ELC for years. F*** around and find out STL.
If one team pays more for guys coming off of ELC, doesn’t that set the market for all guys coming off of ELC?
That was pretty much exactly Burke’s argument with Lowe over the Penner offer.
Defm posted a fun waiver idea below. But. Why not explore a sign and trade option? Who wants Broberg or Holloway, but didn’t feel right doing a offer sheet? Worth checking out in my opinion.
They’re already signed, and a trade is prohibited for one calendar year.
I could be wrong on this but can’t they trade them prior to matching or taking the picks?
Well, how do you trade a player another team has signed? We no longer hold their rights unless we undertake the right of first refusal and match. In which case they can’t be traded for a year.
But let’s say you can trade them…
The trade partner would then be faced with the exact same scenario. What would you pay us for the choice of two overpays or two draft picks? More than the two draft picks?
The players are St. Louis property this week. You cannot trade another teams players.
At the moment, the Oilers only hold non-marketable options on the players. They do not hold the players.
No. No trades are allowed for one calendar year.
I do like the waiver idea maybe we get Billy involved since we handed him a crackerjack prospect in Wallstedt.
Seems there are a handful of teams with unsigned RFAs currently on their rosters. 17 players in total (unless I missed any), and some of the vulnerable names might surprise some folks. Unfortunately, the better players are on teams with plenty of cap space to absorb any potential offer sheets. Perhaps other GMs are (in some cases) hoping for their misfits to sign offers, or have enough leverage to not be overly concerned about their young talent getting poached.
Per PuckPedia’s Twitter:
This year’s RFA offer sheet compensation:
< $1.51M: No compensation
$1.51M to $2.29M: 3rd
$2.29M to $4.58M: 2nd
$4.58M to $6.87M: 1st & 3rd
$6.87M to $9.16M: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$9.16M to $11.45M: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
$11.45M+: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st
If these were steps on a staircase, I think I’d trip on 4.58 to 6.87. It seems out of whack.
And quite a few smart teams on that list. Weird.
There seems to be an inverse relationship with available cap space and forward thinking teams. Roughly.
Lou is leaving Iskhakov out to dry.
Kaliyev is being hung out to dry much the same since he’s not in their future plans; Blake has no trade so wants to ameliorate himself of any responsibility with an outside acquisition.
The rest are in a spot where the incumbent GMs are grinding their RFAs for the most team friendly deals possible.
So Anaheim, Calgary, Detroit are progressive. Washington, Edmonton, Las Vegas are not?
Should probably be noted that Detroit is only on the list due to their high end RFAs being unsigned. Next up progressive teams are San Jose and Columbus.
And isn’t virtually everyone grinding their RFAs? At least the RFAs who aren’t stars.
Common thread for the first three, cap space. The latter few, lack thereof.
The teams with cap space aren’t in danger of not being able to match offer sheets without serious roster surgery at such a late stage in the off season. Same with SJS and CBJ.
EDM, WSH and VGK are more vulnerable from a contract and cap standpoint, as we’ve recently seen with the offers out of STL.
After reading today that the Oilers and Blues had discussed Holloway and Bro in regards to a Buchnevich trade, it looks even worse on management. They knew the Blues were very interested, Armstrong spoke about the rising cap possibly motivating offer sheets
To cap out like they did and drag things out was very poor management, it looks amateurish, and the knot the Blues tied them into is heinous. There are only 4 teams over the cap, the Flyers only 830K
Yes they had things to do, there were marriages and Kane’s thing, but to delay and not get vital business done, and get hammered for it, isn’t acceptable to me
If this happened in year 2 or 3 or later in a GM’s tenure they probably take the fall for it
This is inaccurate, at least according to CapWages.
There are eight teams over the cap, including EDM. Furthermore, PHI is -$2,472,618 and not $830k over the cap. Not sure where you’re getting your numbers from.
I looked at Puckpedia
Washington will put Backstrom and his $9.2 million on LTIR.
Colorado isn’t since they can put Landeskog on LTIR and will likely dispose of Nichushkin.
Vegas will once again put Robin Lehner and his $5 million cap hit on LTIR.
Philly will put Ryan Ellis and his $6.25 million on LTIR.
NYI can easily get cap compliant by sending one player down off a 23 man roster.
The same for Tampa and Florida.
The Oilers are the only team that is over the cap with a 21 man roster.
Futures are nice.
Of course, my post was about accuracy. Today.
This I tend to agree with. Unforced errors are absolute killers. But the thing we don’t know about is if Broberg was actually going to sign the supposed $1.8MM deal, or if he was just biding his time until Armstrong came in with these offer sheets.
It’s not unreasonable to think he might have had an unofficial heads up via his agent that STL was going to come in heavy and to bide his time.
Exactly … Friedman also reported that the Blues waited until arbitration cases were over, so that the Oilers couldn’t trade for a player going to arbitration and open up a second buyout window.
This was targeted and Broberg’s agent was in on it … that’s the agents job though … to get the best deal possible for their client, and he did his job very well.
It’s a business … nothing personal.
People always say that but business is personal and I have never met a businessman who felt any differently.
One of the questions for me, is what role did Holland play in all of this from the TD onward. Considering the unceremonious end to his Oiler career, I wonder if there was some sabotage at play. And I don’t mean anything direct or overt, but more subtle… something that could just be at the level of not conveying the concerns of the two players’ agents to JJ or not advising JJ that he had better get a stronger relationship going there. “You’re my boss now and supposed to know better, let’s see if you actually do,” kind of thing.There’s lots of subtle ways Holland could poison his departure.
And I’m not saying he did, these things can be tough to pull off in a committee environment, but I do wonder…
Seems out of character to me but is possible.
There was a lot of chatter here about dislike of Bowman as motivation for the move but to me what is more likely is that Armstrong felt more inclined because of what was done to his friend Holland.
Did Jackson have any clients who played for St. Louis? No idea.
Pretty sure Armstrong doesn’t do this if Holland was still with the Oilers though. They would have made a trade deal at worst.
I’ll push back on this.
Waddell up and publicly claimed our goalie Forsberg (who wasn’t half bad) to save CAR’s goalie Nedeljkovic from being claimed on waivers.
Holland could have simply returned serve and protected his team (grabbing a top rated goalie not in the NHL for free) claiming Ned, but didn’t.
No.
Either Holland was bamboozled once, or he failed to learn from it on a subsequent iteration. Neither is great, although there’s a sliding scale involved in any honest assessment.
I most often do business with people whom I happen to:
Yeah, the more I read the more I think Broberg had no intention of extending in EDM.
He couldn’t have known about any options till July 1 without tampering. so sign him in the period between gm 7 SCF and July 1, along with Holloway. What’s so hard? Although with the draft, awards night and pending free agency, that’s a lot of work for a part-time manager who then assumed loyalties he had no right to assume.
I’ve had discussions with defmn about potential interference.
Illegal or not, it’s not out of the question/real of possibility.
I read he and DH were willing to sign 1.8 and 1.2. Bro wouldn’t sign in season. Who knows but I think they were trying to get them lower, that was a bit high, but not egregious and given the team needed them badly worth the little extra
I also don’t think they saw it as a priority to deal with them, and it was the first priority because Drai was under contract. It’s not like the 500K they might have squeezed out of them was a difference maker on Drai’s contract
I’m sure the young guys weren’t sure of the plan for them given the overloaded roster and not getting deals. And I ‘m sure not playing in the NHL was a non starter
The real alarm bell was when St Louis reacquired their 2nd round pick. Perhaps the Oilers picked that up, but it was too late
Was Broberg going to sign for $1.8MM, or was that the offer?
Hang on a second.
They are capped out because of deals we were all cheering for not six weeks ago. Yes, the future is a concern, but the bottom line is this:
If you had to choose two players right now of these three: Arvidsson, Skinner or Holloway?
If you had to choose one player, especially now considering cap hit: Stecher or Broberg?
Holloway and Broberg may become better players in the future than who has been signed, and in the case of Broberg are even likely to be. But they are not right now. And that’s all that matters. This year and the next.
Signing Perry seemed unnecessary at the time, and looms large now, but that is the only deal I see as a lateral move. Every other move improved the team more than Holloway and Broberg could right now. Signing Holloway before Perry is the only misstep I see, and frankly, between the 9th and 10th forward, we are sort of splitting hairs.
Not to say having younger players isn’t important. It’s just that those young players have to be cheap, which neither are anymore. I don’t necessarily see this as management’s fault. St Louis capitalized, which is their right, and both player’s agents held off from contracts talked about earlier in the year, and now both players are making way more than was rumored earlier. What was anyone to do about that?
I don’t get the Perry signing at all. They could have at least signed one of Broberg & Holloway probably both and been capped out with the two sheeters instead of Perry.
I don’t understand that ???
But maybe they were both waiting for the offer sheet and didn’t want to sign??
Detroit has 3 RFAs unsigned, two high end. And 17.648M in cap space, so no one is going to go at them
The Oilers had negative cap space after July 1st. And 8 NHL D. Both RFAs were free to sign offer sheets after then having no contract. The problem wasn’t the UFA signings, it was not clearing cap quickly, full well knowing St Louis wanted both players as they had been discussed in a trade, not signing Bro and DH when they could have. Even if they wanted to move on, you sign and trade. Armstrong even publicly saying he thought offer sheets were likely
Why have 8 D that want to be in the NHL, 2 signed as UFA, if you aren’t planning to move one? It makes no sense. At the 1.8 and 1.2 mentioned, they could have signed them and even with Perry would have only been 104K over. They should have signed the RFAs soon after playoffs and wiggled that money and a bit more out of the UFAs, who all wanted to be in Edmonton. If between the 8 UFAs signed they could have gotten 600K less in contracts, by mid season that is an extra 1M in cap if you need/want to do anything
This is similar to Holland signing Nurse, doing things in the wrong order, and ending up paying Nurse ~ 1.5M more than he was even asking for or expecting, because the timelines facilitated the more expensive Jones contract that bumped up Nurse’s
The compensation is also worth STL’s time, and also forces EDM’s hand.
Seider and Raymond on DET would either be immediately matched by DET or STL wouldn’t sign in the first place because the compensation would be too much.
Again, I see this more as a very shrewd move by Armstrong, and Broberg and Holloway owing their agents steak dinners from now until the end of time.
By the sounds of it, the Oilers did try to sign them both, and both held off. Broberg nor Holloway was under no obligation to sign anything the Oilers presented them. They were “free agents” after all. We just rarely see the exact scenario presented in this case.
You lost me at Stecher is better than Broberg.
I only bring up Stecher because he was signed as a UFA before Broberg.
As I said, if he keeps developing, Broberg will be the better player as soon as the middle of this year, but today, right now, it is a lot closer than it should be.
If Stecher’s and Broberg’s contracts were switched, it would be an absolute no-brainer. But in my opinion, Stecher at league minimum is a safer bet than Broberg at $4.5, especially with Drai needing to be signed asap.
When Lieutenant Frank Columbo walks in the door, is he looking at a murder scene or a suicide? The wounds look self-inflicted.
No one seemed to comment on LT’s reference to good ownership when the offer sheets dropped the other day.
The problems here begin with DK. Mainly in creating a hierarchy that has a part-timer with no experience at the top. Managing a hockey team is not the same as being an agent, and there are more skills involved than attracting players and negotiating contracts, Like timely organizational hirings, for example. JJ clearly has his strengths and weaknesses (like all humans), but for a long stretch there was no one covering off his weaknesses.
We had a part-timer when we needed a Charlie Hustle. Inaction Jackson. at least now we know there was a process to the GM hiring, but we know nothing beyond the word “process” other than another name being considered. Should we be surprised that JJ hired a man who’s career thus far has also been punctuated by a tragic episode of inaction?
The org then throwing both Holland and Woody under the bus, largely through Spector and Stauff, reeks of the unaccountable regimes of KLowe and Chia-pet. So much solid org culture work accomplished by Holland defenestrated mere weeks after his departure.
And strangely Spec never mentioned the coach who had the biggest impact on the awful offer sheet event… Knoblauch, whose refusal to trust Broberg with playing time while trying to regain a playoff spot directly impacted Broberg’s willingness to sign in-season, as we now know from Friedman’s pricking of Spec and Stauff’s trial balloons of blame. Back to the media carrying water for Oiler dysfunction. Very bad days may lay ahead. Probably more erratic than outright bad, but there’s a warning light on the team dashboard we probably shouldn’t ignore.
We will never know for sure, but I find it difficult to believe that Holland would have let it come to this. Yes, he was a grinder, but you have to know when to grind and when to cut bait and Kenny always seemed to do a good job building relationships with players and agents. Having his finger on the pulse and knowing what to do. Pujo is a prime example of this, I think it’s reasonable to speculate that if this summer was his last summer, that continuity would have prevented the offers from dropping and we wouldn’t be gnashing our teeth and rending our garments right now.
So what to do?
DEFMN has put forward a viable plan and really the stock template for these situations. Drop back ten and punt in the hope that you can get better opportunities down the road. Don’t send young players out the door till you absolutely have-to. Don’t burn any bridges and wait to see if other avenues present themselves. Good deals in a closed economic system are heavily reliant on patience and timing to provide coincidence of needs.
That plan isn’t without its issues though. One is, an untimely return by Kane may force a move that equally bends the Oilers over a barrel, especially with a management group that doesn’t seem to understand nuance or initiative. The other is that the one calendar year trade moratorium is killer. If it was July 1, the situation would be easier to deal with. But asking for a good trade on Aug 20, 2025 when most rosters are set is going to take a lot of hope and/or trust to accomplish.
Nor does it mean the org will do the smartest thing.
Inaction Jackson, and Stan “The Coward” Bowman owe no loyalty to anyone on the roster they haven’t recently signed. For anyone else who doesn’t answer to the last name Glimmer, you’d have to be feeling a little uncertain about your future during the match period.
I doubt that one week is enough time to engineer a reasonable Nurse deal to someone he’d waive his NTC for, but I bet they’re making inquiries. Likely on Kane too and possibly even Nuge. Kulak and Ceci will definitely not be sleeping well this week. So the roster’s first experience with this management group isn’t the family-building that guys like Ilitch were famous for creating, but rather controversy, turmoil, uncertainty, cap distortions, finger-pointing and scapegoating… and meanwhile we’re trying to sign two keystone players to the roster.
What a nightmare. smfh.
This sums it up well, thanks.
Without being bold or particularly innovative, I had thought Holland’s primary contribution was to org culture, and that was to bring the chill, or perspective, to many things that needed it.
I am dismayed by early indications of the org’s culture or personality post-Holland. It does indeed feel like a throwback to blame and shame over institutional accountability, and once again we’re back on a rollercoaster of ego and misinformation.
JJ was gold til the moment he hired Stan. Yes he dithered in other areas, and we’re now seeing the consequences, but I for one do not disassociate the arrogance of the Stan selection from Armstrong’s willingness to kick Edmonton in the nuts with these offer sheets.
And now we’re hearing 3M would’ve locked up both players at the same moment as all the new hired guns and returning vets. That would have been a hell of a feel good for everyone not named Ceci. Oh well.
There’s another fairly bizarre possibility as well in that Oiler management may have seen this coming and decided that this was the best course of action to offload salaries for picks to create cap space for Leon, Bouchard and/or other cheap vets at the deadline.
Walking still emerging talent could be theoretically viewed as the ultimate expression of a ‘win now at any cost’ mentality. We may have a brain trust that doesn’t believe it can win with youth so the entire roster mix is rejigged in favour of more predictable performance from older players. The problem with this of course is it will reduce the length the competitive window stays open.
This certainly doesn’t apologize for the many misjudgements you’ve defined here. If anything it would make it worse if it was true.
I agree, that possibility can’t be discounted. And if it was the case, they would still use the full seven days to maintain optics.
But… the blame game makes this scenario highly doubtful, IMO.
Yes worse. You sign them and trade if you want to move on. St Louis for one would have paid more than they did after the playoffs the two had
100%.
DK is the issue. Always has been.
He loves to surround himself with famous hockey men. He loves the guide and record book unironically.
You prefer the broke group or peter puck?
Good grief.
— Good take. The structure post Holland was identified as flawed by some: a remote POHO dabbling in GMng did some good things : the type of stuff that former informed deal makers like a savvy connected former agent might make.
— When the lack of GM was brought a few times it was all “we dont need a GM Jeff is best”
— Without a full management team in place however it seems a well prepared competitor took advantage of their flaws.
— The organization has lost a lot of equity value regardless of the outcome. Thats on JJ IMO.
— Plus it’s now clear that he was waiting on Bowman to get reinstated. They likely don’t do a massive search which is why nothing was leaked. JJ figured he could do it all remotely untill then.
— A few massive fails.
If the Chairman of Alphabet Inc (for eg) announced today that the old CEO was out the door and they were hiring a part time CEO who in a couple of months would have a management team in place to cover the day-to-day, what do you think would happen to the share price of GOOG?
So yeah, certainly a loss of equity compounded by now having to sell subsidiary assets for pennies on the dollar to make the margin calls the falling stock price generated. That’s a snowball rolling down a hill.
— PS after a search i just hired a new GM, the top day to day management position. His fines have been paid and his 2 year ban from industry for a SEC regulatory matter has been served. He’s the best person for the job.
lol, right?
Good points but as an former agent he should have tweaked to the fact an offer sheet was a real danger given everything around the Blues
That’s the sad thing. And I was going to mention it but forgot to fit the brick into the wall of text.
This should’ve been right in JJ’s wheelhouse. Like the very reason he was hired.
And yet here we are.
Call up, ring once, hang up the phone
To let me know you made it home
–S. Wonder, Part time Lover
What’s especially awful about this is that with the stroke of a pen, the excess value of both of these players is wiped away. And although there are ways out of this NONE can bring back that value.
We can match and sure our talent level remains but we immediately have two bad contracts and the key is that they’ll still be RFAs when these contracts are done so they will require huge QOs. You NEVER G
get the value back.
The people talking about trading them next summer? Sure that’s an option but instead of RFA Broberg on a 1.5M deal heading for RFA in a year (bridge deal) being dealt for a huge haul you’ve got Broberg needing a QO of 5M (?) which is very likely to net you almost nothing. You can sign good defensemen for 5M.
We saw it with Jesse and Yamo immediately after they signed 3 million dollar deals. They went from valuable assets to untradeable ones in one season.
We can gloss it over all we want but this is absolutely devastating to the organization
Yup, that’s the main thing that I mentioned as soon as the news break.
It was essential to have these two value contracts for, at least next season, if not a couple of seasons locked down.
They are no longer on value contracts and that diminishes their overall value to the org – a player’s value is not simply their on-ice performance but their on-ice performance relative to their cap hit (of course, projections of progression vs. regression factor in).
Truth. You can keep Holloway (they need a F because Kane is out for months) and muddle through if you trade Ceci and send Perry down when Kane is back
Wouldn’t accrue much cap. It’s all bad
That’s the thing, Kane will eventually be back. They can muddle through the loss of Holloway far easier than the loss of Broberg. If they lose both they will need to replace Broberg. So, they will need that upgrade on Ceci ASAP. They could also muddle along with Tyson Barrie; he was a very popular Oiler when he was here and would be happy to return. They could also get by with one of Lavoie or Savoie until Kane returns. Philp & the new Finn might work out too in Holloway’s place.
I might add that I don’t see a spot on the roster for Ryan or Perry after this because they will need to develop some younger players in view of losing one or both of Holloway & Broberg.
Let’s try not to catastrophize this whole thing.
Unexpected and annoying? Sure. “Absolutely devasting to the organization?” I don’t see it. After all, this is a hopeful 3/4 D and hopeful middle 6 winger we are talking about with a combined career point total of 31.
As you rightfully point out, let’s go back to the summer of 22. Two former first-round picks (KY and JP) are signed as RFAs to “prove it” contracts. Both fail to prove it. Both are lost for no value whatsoever.
At the time, both KY and JP were better players than both PB and DH are now. The loss of KY and JP had no discernable negative effect, and if you go by playoff wins, could be argued as a net positive.
Does that mean I want PB and DH off the team? Of course not. But as you said, their excess value is wiped away at this point.
Fair play to St Louis, and fair play to the player’s agents. It was rumored both were in discussion for contracts earlier this year for far less than what they have now signed for. Blame management I suppose, but it takes two to tango.
All Bro needs is one solid, full season and he’s tradable imo. He’s young he’s big he’s fast he’s toolsy. I also think he’s ready to blow up.
After the shock has worn off, I have come to the following conclusion:
Had the Oilers lost game 7 to Vancouver, Philip Broberg’s draft+5 season would have ended with the following boxcars: 12 GP 0 G 2 A 2 P. He had done nothing to help the team get to the Conference Finals by the time he entered the lineup in Game 4. Would anyone in the league want Broberg at $4.5 mil if the rest of the team had not won Game 7 in Vancouver?
To his credit, at least by the eye test, he held his own when it mattered most, and that shouldn’t matter for nothing. Maybe he can be a $4.5 mil 3/4 dman. As others wiser than me have already pointed out, his value came in cheapness. The Oilers needed him to play like a $4.5m dman at a <$2m price point. Now that that is not an option, a 2nd round pick is less value than he might have got on an open market, but should be considered fair compensation for him not showing up on time.
Let him walk, and good luck to him.
So here is another scenario for Holloway.
He cannot be traded but he can be put on waivers.
So.
You make a deal with Grier in San Jose – they get first crack at waiver pickups through TC and the first few games of the season I believe.
You tell Grier you will put Holloway on waivers in return for a trade a few days later where Edmonton sends a B prospect to San Jose for an A prospect or 2nd rounder or something of interest to the Oilers.
I believe the CBA allows this unless I have misread it. For that matter you could do it both of them and come away better than a 2nd and a 3rd.
Make any sense?
This is very clever. I think you should get a job as AGM.
Extrapolating on this idea, you could “loan” Ceci to San Jose with the implicit understanding that Grier will trade him back to you with 1/2 salary retained in February for future considerations. Get a 3rd team involved and you have Ceci playing 3rd pair for you during the playoffs at an $800K cap hit.
Win for Grier. Win for EDM.
“Hey Rosy. Wanna stir up some trouble….” 🙂
You are both sharper and smarter then Bowman, unfortunately.
Pretty sure Oilers management gets a lot of ideas from this blog.
I think it could put a chill on future offer sheets as a side point.
A win for Grier, a somewhat better outcome for Bowman and a FU to Armstrong.
Ha! I was also wondering about waivers as a wrinkle but was too lazy to read up.
Nice.
As soon as Gary catches wind of this, we’d have to forfeit our 1st round pick in the 2026 draft, and send a 3rd to CGY this year.
If he can indeed be put on waivers, then this might be a loophole designed for teams to take advantage of. But then maybe you’ve misread it.
Below is the section of the CBA – section 10.3 (b) on page 36 that addresses the issue. There is no other section that I have seen that nullifies the team’s right to put players on waivers.
So lose the two players for nothing?
They’ve still signed an SPC. Just now the comp will go to SJS or SJS will have to match and be unable to trade the players for a calendar year…
Does getting Grier to take on two overpays convince him to quid pro quo us better than the offer sheet comp? If Grier takes the picks, he would pay us more than what he got?
I’m also not convinced you can waive a player you don’t hold the rights to.
Edit:
Can’t be waived, regardless. Regular waivers are not available to teams till 12 days prior to the start of the regular season.
Not sure where the disconnect is but I did not say any of this.
The Oilers have right of first refusal. They exercise that right. The players are now Oilers property.
Just before the season starts they waive them if they have made a deal with SJ they like better than what they would get from St. Louis.
If Grier doesn’t want two young players he has cap room for then this obviously doesn’t work.
No, no.
The Oilers phone Grier and ask if he is interested in making a deal with them on the following basis.
IF we exercise our right of first refusal and accept the contracts for Broberg & Holloway they become Oilers property. They cannot be traded to SJ by virtue of the CBA but they can be placed on waivers which SJ has first shot at.
Are they interested?
If so what kind of 2nd deal – completely separate from the waiver wire – would they be prepared to make with us that offers us something better than the 2nd and 3rd we would get from just letting them go to St. Louis.
Maybe SJ offers two second rounders for some guy the Oilers have rights to but no interest in signing. Or maybe SJ has a prospect the Oilers like that they give the Oilers for a 7th round pick in 2028.
It is just a way to trade Holloway and/or Broberg without calling it a trade.
The confusion above is that you didn’t state, unless I missed it, when you would be waiving them. Thanks for clearing that up.
Well, that is a possibility but seems pretty tenuous.
Grier would have to like the two players even on severe overpays enough to then pay us more draft capital to get them than what we’re being offered now. That’s likely worth a phone call, but if you are the Sharks, who are just beginning their rebuild, does this make sense? If you’re Grier do you do it?
Would you, for example, be willing to pay us the equivalent of a 1st to take Broberg on a 300% overpay?
That seems like a pretty steep hill to climb. But worth a call.
And then there’s the matter of timing and trust. Do the two trading parties trust each other enough to swing two separate deals, one of which has a twenty four hour period of opacity? Maybe there’s some mechanism by which some of the mistrust could be eliminated–we’re not party to a lot of the actual league mechanics, which seem to be buried in assorted non-public memoranda.
Your more general point of matching and then looking for ways to improve on the situation the org is faced with today, I am wholeheartedly behind and endorsed above.
Well, I would keep both players for this season if it was my call. I think it can be done without much pain at least until Kane comes off of LTIR. At that point there would have to be decisions or moves. As I said elsewhere the prudent thing to do is delay as long as possible and let events play out.
I don’t see the contracts for Broberg or Holloway as egregious as you. A far cry from what the team wanted to pay & probably impossible to absorb past this coming season but for me I want them for this season to allow for injuries, to improve their value for trade next summer and young legs for a playoff run.
My ‘waiver plan’ was an alternative if the Oilers decide to move on. For the record I think Grier coughs up a second for Holloway without thinking twice and even his third is better than a St. Louis third – not to mention a FU to Armstrong which goes under the heading of ‘it didn’t cost me anything’ and it made me happier.
I totally agree. But… make the trade first. Cash up front. LOL
Broberg short term for me is a question of Ceci vs Broberg for this season, we can now only bet on one for 2RD. Long term, we have Wanner and Akey applying for 2RD and Ekholm, Nurse, Broberg will be too expensive on the left. We can’t move Nurse, so it’s either Broberg or Ekholm long term, maybe Ekholm is the next Chelios/Borque. Ceci seemed decent in the playoffs this year and as mentioned yesterday Broberg’s fancies weren’t as impressive as the PDO. Matching seems like a tossup to me.
I like what Holloway brings, he likely won’t play much top 6 this year but he seems better bet than Puljujarvi and Yamamoto for the future. The issue is that keeping him means trading another player, likely Kulak or Kane to make the cap work this year and both of those players are playoff performers and it would be good to have them for a run this year. In the future there are other prospects that could make Top6 or we could continue with cheap vet UFAs. I probably let Holloway go.
In what way did Ceci have a good playoffs last season? He played so bad he got demoted. And he should have been demoted to the pressbox over Vinny.
How do you pump up Darnell Nurse and then use Ceci being demoted as fodder against him.
Noone got demoted in the playoffs more than Darnell Nurse.
Ceci played more per game at 5 on 5 than Nurse.
Ceci played more per game on the PK than Nurse.
No player on the roster under-performed expectation in the playoffs more than Darnell Nurse.
Matthias Janmark went from being waived in 2022, scratched in the 2023 playoffs, to playoff hero and scored the last goal in the Oilers’ 2024 season. He has scored 14 regular season and 4 playoff goals as an Oiler across two seasons.
He was rewarded with a $1.45M x 3 contract, and is slated to play on the 3rd & 4th lines.
If he’s waived he’s probably claimed.
Who’d you rather: Janmark or Holloway?
Holloway of course.
Now Janmark, future Holloway
Holloway.
If the goal is to win a Cup, Janmark.
It doesn’t matter how wronged everyone feels. Let that go. Neither player is worth those contracts. Signing Broberg to that deal insults everyone who took lesser contracts to stay part of the team and will drive up the cost going forward. Its an insult to Bouchard who is a better dman by leaps and bounds. Its JP redux with another player who whines instead of plays.
Every forward sans Ryan will probably outscore Holloway this year.
Too emotionally invested in youngins. Its a business, take the picks, walk away and flip the picks for a Vet that knows how to shoulder check and complete a line change.
Would Vegas sit and be all emotional like this? No, cut bait and move on. The sun will rise tomorrow and the team is already better on paper than they were last year.
This line of thinking confuses me.
Philip Broberg was an NHL regular in ’22-’23, then after the Oilers horrid start (not at all Broberg’s fault) was, based on his waiver-exempt status, the one sent to the minors to earn an AHL salary for basically the duration of the ’23-’24. Unlike many of his 2019 draft peers he has earned very little actual money on his ELC.
Having lost his NHL opportunity, again through no fault of his own play, Broberg reports to the minors and is arguably the best defenseman in the AHL. His agent rightfully protests Broberg’s position with the club – namely that the Oilers have chosen to play vets ahead of him, robbing him of the NHL reps that he’s both capable of and deserves.
NHL careers are short and, the Oilers balking at paying him a fair $1.8M x 2, the Offer Sheet Fairy lands Broberg an astonishing contract. Nobody in the world should begrudge him for signing it.
If you’re looking at it from the lens that Broberg is being selfish, or “whines”, you’re both incorrect and intellectually dishonest. Other players took a discount because they’re near the ends of their careers and have already earned tens of millions of dollars.
If the Oilers want to reject the fair-market contract that Broberg has signed based on emotion, the McDavid / Draisaitl cup window will indeed be very short.
To say he doesn’t bear any blame is just not true.
Broberg’s play was very much a part of the problem in his first ten games of the year. (8 GP, 0 G 0 A, and an average of a 4.5 rating on the Cult of Hockey).
To go from an NHL regular in 22/23 to even having the discussion of whether or not he should be demoted was a major step backward. He was passed on the depth chart by Desharnais, which should be unacceptable from a first-round pick in his draft +5 season.
I don’t blame Broberg one bit for taking the money offered to him. Who wouldn’t?
But we may have even been questioning the rumored $1.8M x 2 had he signed it.
He has had ten good games when it mattered most, which landed him this current deal evidently. But to say he is not at fault for his poor play isn’t right at all.
There is a lot of projection going on in your post.
First you say that the signings are an insult to the other players on the roster. Next you say that Broberg ‘whined’ when he stood up for himself and voiced his displeasure at how he was being utilized.
Then you accuse anyone considering whether or not to match as “too emotionally invested” in the younger players.
Finally you state that ‘it’s a business’ which contradicts your earlier points about both players signing the offer sheets in the first place as well as Broberg asking to be moved because he wasn’t happy with his role.
So who is really emotional about this whole scenario? Is it the people who are reasonably debating what the best course of action is for the team, or is it the guy throwing out insults and acting offended on the Oilers players behalf?
A simple thumbs up is not enough to indicate how strongly I agree with this post.
I agree that the dressing room is a consideration here. And few of us know exactly how those dynamics play out.
So the management needs to be professional, but the heavily compensated professional hockey players are allowed to be all pissy about someone signing a fair market deal well within the rules. So many contradictions….
I doubt very much Bouchard will be insulted if they match Broberg. He know he’s going to get paid.
Pretty sure most players’ reactions will be ‘Good on you, bud. Now go score some goals and please pick up the check with your newfound riches’
Very concerned about becoming slow, more than becoming old. I do wonder how big the gap is between Jarventie and Holloway, and how soon Savoie will be ready. I haven’t seen much in Holloway that suggests a great offensive season is incoming, but I also think he could be a very strong 3LW or 3C for a decade.
I wasn’t that impressed with Broberg, though I do like his mobility and gap control. My impression was that Nurse played better. I don’t necessarily blame Ceci for that awful pairing, just like I don’t give Broberg the credit. I am not convinced Broberg is better than Ceci at 2RD this year, but he is the future. Honestly, we need Nurse to go back to being a legit top 3D and this would be less important. He was signed as a 1/2, he should be able to carry a partner (not the reverse).
Not sure what I’d do, but I would absolutely be talking to 29/97/2 to get a feel for the room. And Coffey re: Broberg. We need the top 3 motivated to take less to win, so if they think these two young players help that you keep them. If it is going to be an annoyance or barrier to resigning them, they walk and you have an annual effort to find replacement 4D and 3LW until we restock the pipeline.
The Oilers players leadership group already cost themselves a Cup by going to bat for Ceci. Are they going to double down?
Could the Oilers countersign Bro and Holl to a longer contract? One that gives the players an extra year or so and lowers the aav?
I believe the only choices are match or walk away, but others know this better than me.
They have already signed contracts with the Blues. Its locked in. The Oilers can either take over those contracts or accept the draft pick compensation.
No – they have fully signed, vested, sealed, delivered NHL contracts for 2 years. The only question is who the counterparty will ultimately be.
Keep Holloway and let Broberg walk (too much money, crushes our cap both this year and next).
Sign Barrie/Schultz for $1 mill to stop gap. At deadline you upgrade 2 RD (using the 2nd you get from St. Louis for Broberg), and play the better of Ceci or Barrie/Schultz for playoffs (all 3 of those are solid #6 dmen).
Holloway you keep (and can fit with Kane on LTIR) and he would slot into 3 LW. At deadline if Kane is back you can move him if needed (his no move shifts to I think 15 team no trade). Have to dump his cap in offseason anyways so if Holloway is playing well you dump Kane, if Holloway is struggling you keep Kane and find a way to move Cap to accommodate his addition (a healthy Kane is a beast in the playoffs)
Who is Barrie/Schultz replacing? I’m confused. If they let Bro walk, isn’t Ceci 2RD and Stecher is 3RD and Brown is the 4th RD? Where does Barrier/Schultz fit?
If Stecher/Brown aren’t 3 & 4 RD why were they signed?
I have done many rosters on Puckedia (which now that I’m getting used to don’t mind) and in order to have a full roster so they don’t tire everyone out before playoffs again, you have to let Armstrong have his guys
They still will have to shed 354 K in cap. They can LTIR Kane but when he’s back they would have to run 20 and that’s not the way to head into playoffs, less rest
They just signed 5 UFA F, it doesn’t seem likely they now move one that they can move. They are also going to be short two forwards if they do that
I have mentioned they have 8 NHL D before and that seems odd. Stech and Brown have been 7 D, but not been down to the A in years. It seems to me that it must have been the plan to move a D. They could demote one, but it doesn’t then make sense to sign for Stecher and Brown, hitting the end of their careers, but still better than tweeners
If they trade Kulak, they would have 2.395M in space and 20 players. But they signed the 2 RS D and would be losing a LS D in Bro already. That means they have to replace Kulak with an outside player. Who is as good as he is without a contract? Or in a trade at his cap hit?
It makes more sense to move Ceci. He is more expensive giving them more options, and Kulak twice now has been far better in the postseason. They can use the RD they already have to start
If that happens they have 2.895M in cap and 20 players. Kane won’t start the season so they are short a F and a D and could use a farm player to start or two. Having cap space means no LTIR, and the lack of cap has always hampered the team in making in season deals
With accrued cap space if something comes up, and it always does, they can pounce and would have the three extra picks to use, I would think a 2nd for Ceci, so two 2nds and a 3rd
To me this is the best way to proceed, and everyone on their toes making sure they are in the loop to pick up a good deal when it pops up. People have been mentioning Barrie, Schultz, Shattenkirk, but they are all old, weak defensively says Puck IQ, and that is the opposite of the direction they need to go
I mentioned a few times over the course of the last 6 weeks that I do think the loss of McLeod and Foegele will really be evident in team speed in the middle of the lineup.
My goodness, if Holloway and Broberg are also lost, this team becomes very slow overall and less dynamic overall.
Sure, add in Stecher for Broberg and, while Stecher is a fine skater, he’s not as fast as Broberg and, more importantly, he’s not an “elite skater” like Broberg is – edges, acceleration, etc.
Holloway skates like Taylor Hall out there – Lavoie, Philp, Pederson – just not as powerful. I’m not actually 100% sure how Savoie’s skating is.
Broberg is an overpay, but not by much. Defencemen are expensive, especially young ones with good draft pedigree. Pay your bills folks, this is what happens when you don’t.
Holloway has to walk. Too much overpay, and easier to find replacements for what will be his most likely output of something like 20-30-50.
And this is completely fair game by the players. They used the rules in front of them to secure their financial futures for life. Good on them.
I agree with you in principal.
The difference in ability between Holloway and his replacement (Lavoie) is much less than the difference between Broberg and his replacement (Stecher or Brown).
The speedy 6.04 defenseman with blue eyes (trust fund?) is very hard to replace.
The speedy 6.01 left winger, also with blue eyes, has many clones.
After decades of watching the Oilers thrust teenagers into the bigs. Slow playing prospects, fielding actual professionals, forcing prospects to nut up or move on is my kind of team building.
Make the youngings force the issue.
If Broberg falters at 4.6mil his contract will not be movable next summer in a league flushed with left handed defenders.
Disagree on Broberg. Worst case scenario you buy it out for 1/3 the cost (because under 25). 4.6 / 3 = 1.53, split over two years, 0.752M. Less than the league minimum. Can find a way around that.
I was going to say basically this. Not so long ago the comments here were scorching management for “rushing” young prospects and exclaiming how much better Detroit and Chicago were for their player development mostly for slow playing the younger folks.
There’s a lot of vitriol thrown at management, regardless of what they try. I think this illustrates that there are no “perfect” ways to make a hockey team into a winner.
This is revisionist history.
Detroit was primarily successful before a salary cap.
Chicago won a cup with Kane and Toews still on their ELCs.
No slow playing involved.
Ironic to mention revisionist history
Kane and Toews were forwards chosen with the first and third overall picks, respectively.
Players taken that high rarely require slow playing. Especially forwards.
In fact, i think they have to find a way to have him on the opening roster even if he’s re-assigned to Bako the next day. He needs to be on the roster at the time Kane is put on to LTIR in order to properly set the LTIR bonus pool.
If he is not on the roster when Kane is put on LTIR and is called up in-season, his cap hit will rise by $1MM to almost $2MM due to his performance bonuses (similar with Perry, to a lesser extent).
Stauff took a ton of heat after mentioning (many times), with authority, that Ken Holland was instructed as far back as December to get deals done with both Broberg and Holloway – he mentioned this many times and with vigor on Tuesday night’s show and was, in my opinion, validly criticized.
Yesterday morning, Friedman drops his 32 Thoughts and mentions that his info is that Broberg would not talk contract while in the AHL last year and wanted to wait until the summer and see how the season played out.
Now, last night, after Friedman’s report, Bob walks back his statement a bit and saying there might not have been a path to get a Broberg deal done.
Tough stretch for Stauff.
Tough stretch right now for the org – there is no win here.
Stauffer is in a tough spot by virtue of his position, being the mouthpiece for the organization. Even if he’s in the candy store of life, there’s bound to be a tummy ache here and there.
I think management could do themselves a favour with a mea culpa and a solution. Perhaps that’s forthcoming.
The Oilers have been trying to have their cake and eat it too with slow playing their prospects. Armstrong (spits!) has forced their hand to make a choice on these players with some modest overpays.
The Way Out is LTIR Kane and move Ceci or Kulak for picks. Then deal with another trade when Kane is fully ready to return, unless they can “delay” his return to the post-season, but I don’t get the impression Evander likes sitting; he wants to play, even when it is pure torture physically.
D depth is nice to have, but the previous option is no longer an option. There are a plethora of 3LD and 3RD fill-ins in the organization. 2RD has been an issue for years. If Bro can handle it after being thrown into the SCF firestorm, I think he can be a placeholder (at least) until the trade deadline. If another option for 2RD comes available at the trade deadline, trade Kulak if he is still here, move Bro to 3LD (I am convinced he can handle that).
Oilers fans confuse me at times. While I understand the frustration with the current situation they find themselves in, it also seems to me we’re sort of exactly where we were deperate to be for 20 years?
In the past, we’d lament how great it would be to be a contender, attract quality players close to their prime and not rush young talent and watch veteran teams go to the Cup finals. Now that we’re in that exact scenario, we’re lamenting the fact that things aren’t the other way round more?
Sure, is it ideal to possibly lose two young players for just a couple picks? No, but it’s also not ideal to overpay them and be forced to possibly keep them in the line-up simply because you’ve coughed up a bunch of money to retain them.
If the Oilers were a worse team, I’m guessing that young cluster would be bigger, but we’re finally, at long last, fortunate enough to be able to attract and retain the type of talent that would have been impossible to get in the past. Players like Wanner, Peterson, Savoie and Lavoie would either be locks or at least competing for spots on the roster. Would that make us a better team?
You can’t have it all folks.
I’ll buy your argument after EDM wins a Cup.
They got about as close as you can possibly get without winning, are largely seen as a much improved team heading into the season after doing so, and are picked by most to get back to the same spot. I’m not sure how much more we could ask for, especially given the spot we were in for so long.
Remember how all the talking heads were picking EDM to win the Cup in 2018 because they were within a whisker of the conference finals?
Yeah.
Winning the Cup.
It’s all that matters.
You can’t have it all but you also don’t have to consistently do things that aren’t smart and make it less than it can be. I think that is what bothers most people, and that hasn’t changed but one year since Sather left (05-06)
Name me a team (or even a person) that does things right 100% of the time. It’s a misstep for sure, but by the sounds of it, this has been what Broberg intended for some time. Again, we go back to the rushing/slow playing young talent issue. It sounds like he may not have been too pleased with the way he was handled, and the dollar figure that came about as a result of it. Could they have played him earlier? Maybe. Would that have been rushing him? Maybe.
Also, the armchair GMs saying they would have had them signed sooner are laughable. You think it’s wiser to put Leon’s deal on the back burner and prioritize two players who’ve proven little because you’re worried about something happening that’s literally happened twice in the last 20 years?
How’s that Leon deal going by the way? Doesn’t seem like management really has any priority once Johnson brought in his old buddy Stan Bowman as GM.
Its August 15, 2025.
His contract expires on July 1, 2026.
I imagine that deal gets announced in early to mid September.
P.S. I don’t know who Johnson is but, as far as Jackson hiring Bowman while, of course they’ve known each other working in the industry for years, there is no indications the was a “best buddies” hire and this post is complete with exaggerated narratives.
auto-correct on my phone for the last name.
Jackson in the Bowman presser mentioned twice that he has known and worked with Bowman for many, many years and knows him well as one of the justifications that he was the ‘best man for the job’.
Oilers media were hinting right after the fallout of the Bowman hire that a sweet Draisaitl deal was imminent and incoming .
Godot = 100% perfect
The frustration is usually greatest when you’re close to but not quite winning. While it is never great to have a losing team, there is a calmness to the certainty that your team will be bad. It isn’t a roller coaster of emotions when everything is a downbeat. This team and fan base have been on a ride from getting to the finals, going down 3-0, forcing game 7, losing game 7, having a great free agency, hiring a less than ideal GM and now either losing good young players or over-paying them and that this could be the difference between winning a cup or not.
If these two were the difference between winning a Cup and not this year, they weren’t winning the Cup this year.
I’m not a salary cap whiz, but don’t the bonuses from last year accrue this season? So if Brown gets his 3.5 million, doesn’t that mean the cap space is also 3.5?
Hence needing Broberg and Holloway to come in at 1.75 each?
Brown and Perry got paid last season, there are bonus overage penalties that carried over. For Brown fell in a category because of time missed that allowed Holland to bump 3M of what he paid him to this season IIRC. There is currently 3.55M in bonus overages, comes off available cap space
Dead cap should be avoided at all costs. Part of the offer sheet pickle is they are paying Jack 1.1M and Neal 1.916M. To me I value cap space more than later in the order picks we get now
You don’t want to blow draft picks, but it was a unique circumstance. I would have paid a 1st and a 2nd, a combo with prospects, to get out of that clean. Figure out getting some young players after
Sucks no matter which way you look at this. The Oil obviously did not prioritize these guys soon enough and got bent over. The team does not have a near deep enough prospect pool to support losing these guys for nothing ( sure they would get a 2nd and 3rd round pick, which could be used in a trade I guess) , especially on D. Everyone from Holland, to Jackson and yes even Bowman can be blamed. No one gets a pass ( even though Bowman has only been here a short time) .
There is no simple solution. Some think the Oil should keep Broberg, some think Holloway, some think both, some think either.
I honestly have no clue where the Oil go with this. I definitely was looking forward to seeing Broberg progress this year and what he could do. Same with Holloway.
I do think they for sure match 1 of those sheets but not sure both. There are lots of blogs, articles, posts etc on who they can trade, or LTIR( Kane) , or send to the minors to make this all work and keep both as well as a player or two they can bring up or a D man they can trade for.
I would choose Holloway if they can only do 1. I like his size and speed and he can hit. With Kane out they don’t have a lot of hitting power up front as it is ( if he goes on LTIR) which most seem to think he will) .
I like Broberg, but that contract really is a big overpay and Nurse already is in that category. But it would suck to lose him, especially after they let Vinny walk. They have Stetcher and Brown to fill if he goes and not sure how either of those 2 would fare if they had to play #3/4. So if they don’t get another legite D man by trading a Ceci , it would be Ceci as the #4 with Nurse again which many hated last year. But maybe they go that route and upgrade at the deadline .
Regardless it has put the Oil in a very tough position and as well as the Drai negotiations Bowman really has his hands full and we will see how good of a GM he is right off the bat in trying to get this whole mess straightened out or even if he can with minimal damage overall.
It is going to be a very interesting next 5 days. Should be fun
if They don’t match they need to get out from under the cap to accrue deadline cap space
It’s only -354 167 – 21 man roster. But there aren’t many great ways to get under, and agreed they should. The best way is trade Ceci and get another cheaper D or two
I am not impressed how they have done this. I like the player upgrades, but you can’t fill a roster to the brim and leave no room for youth. I have been saying it’s weird that they have 8 NHL D. Players want to play
Brown and Stecher aren’t old and haven’t played in the A for many years. Perry didn’t sign to play in the A. I think Ryan would be there if he wasn’t the only RC. He may end up there if Philp pops
You have to have tweeners to play a tweener role. You can’t have functional NHL players there, most would get unhappy. You can’t use your two best NHL ready kids like that either, same result
Wonder where Holloway would play when Kane comes back
Nuge Mcdavid Hyman
Skinner Drai Arvidsson
Kane Henrique Brown
Janmark Ryan Perry
maybe 4th line RW?
It would depend on how he’s played while Kane was sidelined. I foresaw Holloway playing a combination of 3rd, 4th and 2nd lines throughout the season.
Arguably, Holloway is the 3rd best winger on the team. 4th, at worst.
Nuge
Hyman
Skinner
Arvidsson
Kane
Holloway
also, Janmark and Brown outscored the opposition while shorthanded in the playoffs.
Jeff Jackson took control of the team and by all accounts did very well to sign some quality vets to help the Oilers get the cup this coming season. Bowman is not trying to solve this in isolation. Can the group pull off another one (or two) great moves that will keep both the young stars as Oilers? I will not bet against them – let’s see what they can do.
Love your enthusiasm. Jackson also didn’t help get these two players signed earlier. And his new hire GM has done sweet F all since getting his big contract.
Wow – I would love to see copy of Bowman’s itinerary and call and e-mail logs that you have – that would be awesome. Thank you.
Would this work?
Oilers match both players.
They are over the cap by $7,225,541
Kane LTIR $5,125,000
They are over the cap still by $ 2,100,541
Send down Perry $ 1,150,000
and Brown $ 1,000,000
Leaves Oilers with $ 49,459 under the cap.
12 forwards, 7 D and 2 G, 21 man roster.
What happens if there is a significant but non LTIR injury?
Above my paygrade as a firefighter, but Id have Kucherovs doctor on speed dial.
you get a emergency recall. But there is a time period involve. You can only dress 20 players, 18 skaters and 2 goalies. If an Fwd gets insured, you may run one less fwd or a dman dress instead, 11-7. and vice versa.
I think Brown would get claimed 100%. After a painful start, he resurrected his career in the playoffs and shone like a diamond as 3rd line PK stone cold killer.
$1M deal this year is b/c he has bought into the Stanley plan and probably feels a little guilty about his previous contract.
Josh Brown the Dman, not Connor Brown.
My mistake in not mentioning that.
I think Connor Brown is a value deal this year.
Cool. Thanks for clarifying. I could probably figured that out by looking at $ and thinking 🙂
The Oilers have to make a choice. Broberg now and at S4.8M for 2 years or Ceci or similar for the year or at least until the deadline for a possible upgrade.
I think LTIR Kane + Ceci (or Kulak) for picks is the way out, SHOULD the team decide Broberg is ready for 2RD. My worthless opinion suggests since he took Ceci’s job for that role after having to pull pine splinters out of his ass while being thrown into a pressure cooker fire of the SCFs, he is ready and worth the bet.
I like this. It’s not going to be easy if they decide to match, but they do have an option that does not include a trade. Thanks for running this.
They could do that but they won’t. Perry will almost for sure not be on waivers unless something drastic happens in camp. Josh Brown would be possible but not likely either. If they match both players, either Ceci or Kulak will be traded or we’ll see another player on LTIR. It would not suprise me if another big money player was not ready to start the season and the Oilers just kick the issue down the road.
Kane on LTIR, gives the Oilers an opportunity to sign both players and kick the problem down the road.
In a perfect world, one would like Holloway and Broberg on value contracts. But that has past. Maybe this year, both contracts are an overpay, but how many UFA contracts are signed that are overpays and the value the UFA players brings just disminishes over time?
These two have the potential to be a top 6 forward and a top 4 Dman and are still a few years away from their prime.
I say sign them, if it doesnt work out, then you cut bait in 2 years.
As for the LTIR of Kane. Best case scenario is that he has Kucherovs doctor from a couple of years ago in which he missed the regular season but was good for the playoffs. Maybe out for 3-4 months. In that case, some trades would have to be made, or maybe someone else is on LTIR.
Whatever happens, some slick stickhandling by Oilers management is required.
They can trade both of them next summer if they want to or need the cap space. My contention from the beginning of this is that a 2nd and a 3rd is not enough to compensate for losing them. Sign them, play them to their strengths and move them next August for something useful.
Agreed. It is nonsense to have drafted these guys in the top 1/2 of the first round, developed and nurtured them, see them succeed in the SC playoffs and finals and then have them turned into 2nd and 3rd round picks.
After my initial rage with this situation, I have now come to believe this is a no-brainer. A bit painful and takes some trading and juggling, but keep them both.
Sunk cost fallacy.
Think of each as a late-round pick that popped.
Not necessarily. I’ve Broberg doesn’t excel at 2RD who’s going to want that contract?
It’s an overpay, plain and simple. And the Oilers can’t afford to have overpaid players on their roster at this stage.
You match and do whatever you need to do to get to the playoffs with the cap burden gone. You…..do….whatever.
The Oilers are 4 deep at LHD so you trade the worst one (Kulak) and LTIR Kane to buy time. It’s not bloody difficult. This entire situation stems from hanging on to Kulak too long and burying Broberg. Kulak is a nice bottom pair dman but you don’t bury a high first round pick like Broberg for him. Same with Holloway. Play him at 3LW with Henrique and Brown….nice line. He’s not even overpaid if he puts up decent 3rd line numbers – and a slot on L2 is waiting the next year.
I’m totally over the shock of this and look forward to finally opening up slots for Broberg and Holloway and letting them contribute like they did in the playoffs. I’m not fussed if that costs us Kulak/Perry/Ryan and Kane gets to mend up fully on LTIR. Hope Bowman has been working on the Kulak trade as there is nothing to do now wrt signing the RFA.
Exactly what I have been saying. Don’t rush decisions you could regret for ten years by making a panic or emotional move. There is a way to negotiate this with a little creativity. This team is going to want those guys when injuries come calling and even more come April/May.
So you’re okay with paying Broberg $4.6M to play 3rd pairing for the next 2 years? And how do you propose filling the 2RD hole on the roster?
There is no choice but to pay him to pay him $4.6M to play 3LD to start the season given it is Kulak that is moved. I prefer to have him start the season on his strong side and continue to build confidence.
Nurse and Ceci managed just fine through the regular season. Broberg plays solid? Bump him up to see if a move to the right side goes well.
Not all moves can be made prior to the season. Deal with what you have to deal with and adjust come the trade deadline.
Sign both, as Asia mentions, LTIR Kane (hopefully there is surgery to get him right), trade Kulak (who is probably the easier one to move right now) and march forward.
This team needs to build towards the playoffs as the season goes on, not before it starts.
You DID have a choice, you could’ve said no.
I think you did what they did July 1. Realize filling that slot was far too expensive at the time and worry about it later, spending your resources more efficiently to fill out other holes in the roster.
One trades Ceci, NOT Kulak.
Trading Kulak means the Oilers need to find two defensemen. Trading Ceci means the OIlers have to find one.
I’m pretty sure that Bowman can figure out the cap this year to match on Broberg. Moreover, if Broberg doesn’t live up to expectations he can still be traded next year and his salary put towards the new Drai and Bouchard contracts. Holloway is replaceable.
I still see Nurse as part of the McDavid cluster, defensemen peak later. The core 12 looks pretty good to me regardless of age.
You’re still waiting for Nurse to peak?
What are the Oilers paying $9.25 million for? Nurse’s development, decades after his draft year?
Nurse is a clusterf&ck on an island all on his lonesome.
In this scenario it’s going to cost a 2nd round pick or more to move his contract next summer, which will significantly affect the Oilers deadline options for the final year of McDavid’s current deal.
Not good.
If he falls flat on his face you can do the 1/3 contract buyout due to age. While not ideal that’s only 760k a year x 2
You could avoid that entirely just by not matching the ridiculous contract though.
St. Louis says hi.
If Broberg doesn’t live up to expectations how sure are we that his $4M+ contract can be traded?
It can be traded if the Oilers add Savoie to get a 4th round pick back.
Folks saw him so the math and numbers no longer matter.
Then just buy it out for peanuts.
I would say because he is young, has skill, has wheels and there are teams looking to get to the cap and take a chance. Besides it would be for one year.
Broberg would be tradable next year.
If Broberg under-performs, how much trade value is there in a $4.5MM contract with one year left (to qualify at that amount or let walk) in the 3rd week of August?
Is it possible for people to stop saying the Oilers will get $7M in cap space by letting these players walk? If they let them walk, it’s because they’ve chosen not to commit to these $7M contracts. You can’t save money you never spent or refused to spend in the first place!!!
As Friedman reported, the likely total the Oil could have signed the pair for was $3M. That is the money they’ll save by letting the Blues sign these players instead.
Dude, my wife was going to buy these shoes for $2k but I balked and then another man bought her the same shoes for $6k, so I totally saved $6k! Btw I’m a little worried about our relationship atm.
If they’re not signed the Oil will still only be over the cap by $345,541 and have an extra
2nd & 3rd round pick. Not fair compensation and obviously will be challenged losing some young depth players, in hindsight it’s easy to say they could have signed the duo for $3M. But this sort of thing has only happened 10 times since it became a thing. Live and learn and move on. The sun will shine on.
“You can’t save money you never spent or refused to spend in the first place!!!”
I think the kids would say, you just literally defined “save money”.
Also, what’s up with bro buying your wife shoes? You need to look into that.
Saving money means you either A) put some money away for a later expenditure OR B) you achieved some sort of favorable discount on an expenditure. It’s an outcome based on demonstrable intent not a theoretical construct.
Sure I could claim I’ve saved $900M by never buying that super yacht, but that claim is pretty much worthless if I never demonstrated the intent or wherewithal to buy it in the first place.
The day after you match the offer and have buyer’s remorse aren’t you able to say I could of saved 7 million by not signing them.
Sure, because at that point you demonstrated intent and made a financial committment.
Perhaps the larger point is that it’s disingenuos to claim a ‘saving’ on a transaction where a competitor forces a valuation that is far more than what you could have achieved with better execution.
There’s 2 outcomes here. The oilers lose valuable prospects OR they overspend to retain. Claiming a ‘saving’ is just spin imo.
This is NOT the scenario the Oilers find themselves in, though. The shoes have already been bought, your choices now are (a) you pay the $6k bill, or (b) your wife leaves for the guy who did.
The trouble is, in order for you to be able to afford the shoes, you’ll need to pay someone to take your dog.
(Edit: it was a dumb analogy to start with, I probably shouldn’t have tried working with it. But since your wife wants the other man anyhow, best to save the $6k and the additional payment, and keep your dog. Let her walk.)
Telling yourself the Oilers will save $7M in cap space is being exceedingly generous to Oiler mgmt when the reality is they will lose two key young prospects over their unwillingness to commit $3M earlier.
Bottom line, they should have bought their wife the damn shoes earlier OR treated her better so this kind of exorbitant material goods validation wasn’t required in the first place.
There is no cap space savings in any scenario as the Oil will spend to the cap. The only difference is which players are signed, what value contracts we have etc.
The ‘we save $7M’ suggestion is a red herring.
Exactly.
But some Cialis and lay the pipe to her.
Then find the other guy and break his jaw.
Sell off a bunch of junk in the basement be kinda broke for a year.
Yup. You can say that the owner of the club (I keep forgetting his name cannot be said here so this got caught in awaiting approval land for the last hour or so) saves $7M but the team saves nothing since they will be at the cap regardless of anything to do with this decision.
Next summer these contracts will have implications that may require them to be moved but this summer the trading of either Kulak or Ceci should allow them to fudge their way to cap compliance with a little creativity mixed in.
So many different scenarios with matching these offer sheets. To me the question is who do you want on the ice to win Stanley now. Now is the Oilers time. Are Broberg and/or Holloway difference makers? I’m not smart enough to know this answer. But I believe that’s what Stan will look at. I don’t think they can just match because it’s the future because it took to many years to get where we are today. Winning today is paramount. Also I don’t buy into just trade Kulak and Ceci because you still need NHL defenceman on your team. Trade one or the other but certainly not both.
Just my two cents worth.
Clearly, the worst part of the offer sheet is that it once again results in poor asset management. Sign one or both and the Oilers miss out on value contracts. Lose one or both and the Oilers lose the asset for a significantly reduced price.
What would the trade return for Broberg or Holloway have been at the draft?
There is no scenario where these are “value” contracts though. Holloway maybe, but not Broberg. He would have to suddenly be a legit top pairing right side defenseman to make this a value contract, but the odds of him making a significant leap forward at 23 are slim to none.
A legitimate 2RD at $4.6M is certainly reasonable though. Much better than $9something.
He’s not a legitimate 2RD though, we’re just hoping he becomes that. And his salary puts him 77th among defensemen, so he’d have to be a high-end 2RD in order to even cover the bet. To be a value contract, he’s going to have to be a legit 1st pairing player.
Nobody is under any illisions that this will be a value contract.
I think Broberg’s contract has a 33% chance of being a value contract in Edmonton and a 67% chance of being a value contract in St. Louis.
The situation in St. Louis is a much better one for Broberg.
If there’s a silver lining to all of this, it’s that we may finally see an end to this notion of stifling player opportunity and development to benefit the almighty cap.
There’s been dozens of posts over the years suggesting a player be left in the minors or kept off the pp or buried on the depth chart in an effort to suppress their next contract valuation.
As this week has demonstrated, there’s a price to be paid for treating players like this. There has to be a balance somewhere between too many chances for Puljujarvi and not enough chances for Broberg. Hopefully this new regime can find a way to strike that balance.
This is clearly true with respect to Broberg but not at all with respect to Holloway – Holloway was given every opportunity to be an NHL player and a top 6-player. Demotions off the 2nd line were with merit due to mistakes being repeated. Demotions to the AHL were short lived and also based on merit of being outplayed off the roster.
My post isn’t speaking to the specifics of these two players. It’s speaking to the general philosophy of stifling player development in an effort to achieve cap compliance via lower contract valuations.
Screwing over your employees to game the cap system was always a bad idea. It just took a situation like this to illustrate why.
Ok, fair enough.
I don’t think the Oilers development and deployment of either of these players over the past 4-5 years has anything doing with suppressing their cap hits in the future.
Nobody outside the ivory tower knows the true motivations. It could be patient development. It could be contract value suppression. It could be both.
As fans though, we shouldn’t be advocating for tactics to slow play development and/or stifle production imo.While we are cheering for the team/brand at the end of the day, that shouldn’t outweigh the rights of the individual.
It could be, sure, but it I don’t think it was in the least.
It also doesn’t even fit with Holloway given he was provided with many many many opportunities to become an every day NHL player and even many opportunities in the top 6.
His demotions down and out of the lineup were on merit.
Without Broberg and Holloway, this is a old team, but an old team is ok, if the old players are still good hockey players, which we have in abundance.
I fear with the loss of McLeod, Foegele, and now potentially Holloway and Broberg, we wont be a fast team like last year. This team played with a pace that other teams had trouble defending against. Not sure we have that luxury when McDavid is off the ice.
There is a godawful scenario in which McDavid and Draisaitl dont sign, and we end up in a world of hurt of another rebuild in a couple of years. There is nothing in the pipeline except Savoie that one could say is difference maker in the next 3 years.
On the flip slide with both signing, I see the scenario of this team still competing for a Cup over the next few years.
Its never easy to be an Oilers fan.
But it sure is fun.
I hear your concern about the overall speed of the team, but keep in mind the names that have been added (Arvidsson, Skinner, Savoie, Jarventie) are all plus-skaters. The team speed may be diminished, but not by a lot.
Only a handful of players in the NHL are in McDavids league in speed and speed bursts. McLeod was one of them.
Foegele is a guy that his hands, his head and his legs were never in rhythm. He would get breakaways or oddman breaks, but end skating the puck into the borders or flubbing the shot more than most other players. But he was fast, and really good in the corners in puck battles, and very good on the PK, but his hands head and legs disjointment, left many wanting more
Both players will be missed with their speed.
But Skinner and Arviddson ( who I believe are replacing the those two) are certainly better hockey players. This set of wingers will be the best that Draisaitl has played with, hands down. Im excited to see this play out. Our top 6 is the best in the league, hands down.
This team was 2nd fastest last year, I think probably closer to middle of the pack now. But speed is only one way to win, this Oiler team is now more skilled.
I’m not sure it’s diminished when it counts much. Bro I guess. Brown and Stech are faster than Vinny. McLeod and Foegele played their way out of critical moments. As you said the new top 6 guys can skate
I think the biggest issues is the age gap in the middle. J Skinner may not come back, that would be Holloways to lose as Savoie is RS and it’s not a sure thing he will be ready, or healthy. I have no idea but I highly doubt they keep both given the cap diffuculties
No. They’re not.
Desharnais
Stecher
Brown
Stecher and Vinny are about equal in speed bursts > 20 mph (roughly league average), with Vinny having a higher top speed (84th percentile in the league amongst defensemen). Desharnais also covers a good bit more ground over the season.
Brown is slow for both top speed and speed bursts. And he doesn’t cover as nearly much distance, either.
I agree with you except for the “fun” part, watching what transpires with this team has taken years off my life 😉
Having to rush a player to make up for the players who were slow played is somewhat ironic…
My odometer on my truck failed and it took some time to get the cluster repaired. When I did get it fixed there turned out to be many miles on the vehicle… much like the 29+ Oilers cluster.
The Oilers can’t afford to let two sure-fire NHL’ers in their early 20’s just slip away.
Broberg > Ceci
Holloway > Perry
Lose an old man on waivers. Carry a 20-man roster. Say goodbye to expensive bottom-pair defenders. It’s all doable.
The Oilers have no risk of missing the playoffs. This is the season to give at-bats to Lavoie and Phil Kemp, and play the offer-sheet twins higher up the lineup.
They aren’t letting them “just slip away”. They’re getting a 2nd + 3rd + $7M in cap space in return. That’s more than they got from Puljujarvi and Yamamoto, and both players had achieved more than these two when they left.
I would say we are getting a 2nd and a 3rd but that $7M in cap space is not applicable. So I think it fair to say “just slip away” is the proper term unfortunately 🙁
Should the Oilers have looked to trade the fellas prior, the return would have been greater than what may be now.
Here’s the problem with $7M in cap space:
1) There’s nobody you can spend the cap space on this offseason … the good UFA’s are already signed
2) Saving up cap space for a deadline move implies you’ll be spending high picks and prospects to acquire a high-salary player.
So in addition to losing two former first-rounders, filling your cap space implies spending at least another first rounder.
Or you can use the cap space to retain your emerging talent .. which as LT’s post mentions, is in short supply.
They don’t have the cap space to “retain the emerging talent” though! In order to match both contracts they’ll have to move at least 1, possibly 2 veterans (say Kulak & Ceci) who will likely cost picks to move simply because nobody will want to do the Oilers any favours. So there goes your deadline plans – no picks with which to acquire better players.
If they release Broberg and Holloway, not only do they get out of a potential bad contract and $7M in cap obligations but they also get a 2nd + 3rd to spend at the deadline.
That’s a fair take.
To me it’s a matter of what can you get (or have to give up) in a trade for Ceci / Kulak.
I believe the Oilers can trade Kulak for an asset (say a 4th), and Ceci can be traded with minimal incentive (say a 5th). He might even net you an asset in return.
Unlike moving a high-salaried player of no value, both Ceci and Kulak are still reasonably in range in terms of their cap hits.
It’s not doing the Oilers a favour – for some teams like Anaheim or San Jose, Cody Ceci will provide a needed upgrade, help them get to the cap floor, and provide an asset they can trade at the deadline.
I would hope that Bowman is on the phone with 30 GMs all weekend to determine what the cost of moving Ceci / Kulak is (or what they can get back). There’s no way to make an informed decision without that information.
And it’s something that we probably will never know, muddying our own judgements of the situation.
Agreed. But also need to assess players along the way. I’d match on Broberg, but I don’t believe Holloway has it – wingers who haven’t scored much by 22 rarely end up being wingers who do.
And there is no cap space once Kane comes off of LTIR. It is all a mirage.
Serious question.
Exactly what do you think can be done this season with that cap space – which is really closer to $4.7 than $7M with the current roster and Kane on LTIR?
So your answer is to reward the “offer sheet players” for sticking it to the team?
Let’s put Bro on the 1st pair with sheltered starts and with McDavids line.
Holloway should play with Draisaitl until he scores enough to get himself another, even better offer sheet.
Whatever.
Buh-bye.
Don’t let the locker room door hit you in the ass on the way out.
P.S. Broberg & Holloway: Check at the Will-Call booth during next year’s playoffs… there will be tickets and your old Oilers jerseys waiting for you. See you in the stands.
P.S.S. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I realize you lot who think they need to protect the millionaire players will be saying… but, but, but.
I don’t give a sh#t about Broberg and Holloway’s earning potential and how the Oilers have stifled their career earnings… all you apologists can kiss my shiny metal ass.
Can’t tell if this is satire. It’s such a bad take. Nobody in their right mind would turn down a quintupling of their salary. Honestly, if they would, I’d question their intelligence and ability. What a bad take.
The key will be backfill.
I can think of a number of quality options for backfilling.
Jakub Vrana. Elite skater and 5v5 scoring menace who is awful defensively.
Fillip Zadina. Strong skater who has a ton of tools but hasnt put it all together.
Calen Addison. Undersized but effective puck mover. Iffy defensive Game.
There are likely undervalued prospects or waiver eligible players who could become available.
Phillipe myers. Age 28. 6 ft 6 and 220 lbs who can skate well and is blocked in tronno. league min.
Haydn Fleury. Age 27. 6 ft 3.Strong skater, very mobile, solid positionally. league min
Ethan Bear. Age 28. We all know what he is and isnt. makes 2 mil and is blocked by Matt Roy, Trevor Van riemsdyk, and John carlsson.
and in the younger group.
Victor Soderstrom. Age 23. Highly mobile, high IQ, iffy defensively. Has no contract currently, has been a bit of a dissapointment but has legitimate skill.
Montreal has a few that could shake loose.
Jayden Struble. Age 23. Highly mobile, physical, high tempo. Raw talent.
Jordan Harris. age 24. undersized puck mover.
Justin Barron. Age 23. I would hope for him. His underlyings are all good, solid size, and likely undervalued with logan mailloux and david reinbacher pushing.
Lets remember that jackson pulled off 2 solid trades for jarventie and savoie, im sure he can find available skilled dmen to trade for also.
Your list did not inspire confidence in replacing Broberg or Holloway.
None of the defensemen you listed could step up and play top 4. Not. One.
The forwards are all iffy.
it’s not as easy as some here are making it look.
Justin Barron is an intriguing player I’d talked about prior to being extended in MTL.
He could likely step into the top-4.
I’m not saying that he’d be better than Broberg, but he could probably fill the role.
I’d need to check Barron’s fancy’s again, maybe I’m missing something.
But now the cost of losing Broberg and Holloway is even higher.
I’m sure this is also part of the conversation that JJ and Bowman are having. If we let either walk, what’s in the wings to replace, how much more will it cost and what’s the best option because top 4 D are not easy to acquire and the cost can be high.
Not an easy decision either way.
The question being the acquisition cost if even available.
As brobergstan points out above, the potential for a waiver pick up exists.
Though I doubt he lasts all the way to our spot in the pecking order.
And considering they just extended him to the a deal that was in line with what we were all expecting Broberg to sign, MTL has clearly identified Barron is of enough interest to include in future plans.
For $4.5 million, you can’t find someone as good as Broberg?
That’s why the Oilers should have tried to find a good GM.
Yes. It’s August. All the good ones are gone. This isn’t a video game.
The cost for that is going to make the issue even more expensive.
You sign them both, you LTIR Kane, you trade a D-man or send a Brown (the d-man, not Connor) and another man down (Perry per frjohnk).
Late August all the sale items have been taken.
At the deadline, yes. Even the most expensive pending UFA defenseman likely to be available at the deadline (Provorov) will be cheaper than Broberg if retained 50%, which is common practice for rentals.
Last deadline the headliners were double retained, but that costs extra.
Provorov is one I’d have my eye on for sure. Either as a rental, or as a trial run for an extension.
What about having cap space to make any material acquisition?
If the Oilers are in LTIR at the deadline, there is no “fitting in 2/5 or 1/3 of the contract (whatever is left in the season), its fitting in the entire AAV.
LT,
What are your thoughts on raphael lavoie making the team out of camp which would add to that cluster.
If holloway sails gently into the night, raffy is the logical replacement no? A slightly belligerant Big body who can rip the puck and play a good cycle game, while he isnt a banger like holloway he is slightly dirty around the edges and he has been very effective at bullying other players off the puck. He did not look out of place at all in his last brief stint.
I reckon he could learn a ton from henrique and brown who would likely be his linemates.
the only downside is he doesnt really PK much.
If he has accepted he is likely to top out at a 3rd liner who plays heavy i think it is a better mindset than someone who is frankly butthurt because they brought in more established top 6 players.
When everyone is healthy i dont think there is a case to be made that holloway is better than Mcdavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Skinner, Arvidsson, Kane, or Henrique.