People forget about a PTO about one hour after it happens. In theory, it’s a grand idea but it’s important to remember that most of them fail, and those who do hit are all about the fringes of the roster. Kris Versteeg was an exception, he could have given the Oilers some Jesse Puljujarvi insurance but Peter Chiarelli was convinced the big Finn was ready. In reality, JP should have returned to Finland for another year. Fans are talking about the Travis Dermott PTO, so let’s join the fun!
LITTLE PTO
He didn’t play last year. I’ve heard that from many people, and yet he did in fact play in the NHL last season.
Where, Oakland? Arizona Coyotes. He played 54 games, that’s a good sample.
What were his numbers? He averaged 14:09 per night, 45 percent Corsi and shot share, 43 percent Fenwick. He had a 35 percent goal share, 45 percent goal share.
So, he’s well below average. His team was, and Dermott’s relative numbers are among the worst on the team. His Corsi rel (all of these numbers are five-on-five) was minus 6.9 percent. That’s a gap.
Was anyone worse on that Arizona club? Yes. Josh Brown.
Oh good! I’m of the opinion that, at some point, defensemen get lost in the flood of awful and the numbers for blue on a bad team are just different levels of ghastly. I’m not saying Dermott is the answer to Edmonton’s issues, but players like him (he is 27) have arrived with a better team and showed well.
What kind of player is he? He’s a lefty who can play both sides, he has good speed but is not a brilliant puck mover. He’s not a bull and not overly physical. Kind of jack all master none. But I like him. He might remind you a little of Brett Kulak.
What’s the best thing about him? 329 NHL games. I like experience on the blue line.
Would he be your top PTO? No. I would prefer Mark Giordano and have written as much.
That’s because you’re a traitor and a dog-faced man who doesn’t love his family! Yes. Thar’s it.
Is there anything interesting about him? The most interesting thing comes from Puck IQ. Here’s the pack of Coyotes versus elites via Puck IQ. Dermott shows well here, at least in terms of the amount he faces elites (34 percent of his overall time). It ranks him No. 3, and basically in a tie with Matt Dumba and Janis Mozer.
What do these numbers mean? They mean he might do much better than we think against the soft parade. It’s a reasonable bet. I’m not saying he is going to make the team, but there’s a story here and it’s worth pursuing. It also tells us he can’t play against elites, at least not in the desert.
Do you think Dermott will play 50 games with Edmonton this year? I do not.
Who is the No. 7 defenseman this year? At the end of the year, when all the minutes are added up, my guess is Troy Stecher.
Meaning a trade? I explain possible solutions here.
What’s the big takeaway? The Oilers are smarter than they were a decade ago. Or at least, upper management listens to smart people more than a decade ago.
Lowdown at noon today, Sports 1440. We deliver a double shot of smart hockey talk with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal at 1pm, and then Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic at 1:20. We’ll chat PTO’s, rookie camps, the roster and the way forward. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Can Oilers coaching staff find magic again with the current defence?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5758371/2024/09/11/oilers-lineup-defence-coffey/
Hopefully Parkatti and the crew have been advising on these former Coyotes, and with a good team and coaches surprise us the right way
That’s a pack of Coyotes for the bottom pair along with a Kulak.
He’s only 27 but he’s a veteran he must be quite vanilla with no signing yet but Kris is familiar with him and vanilla can be just what the doctor ordered. I’m loving this G.M by committee with Kris voice being involved in a few trades and this PTO. I’m glad that Bowman and the rest of the gang seem to be on the same page as sometimes ego get in the way. I didn’t see it that way the last few years with certain players.
The Ekholm /Bouchard pairing may be the best pairing in the league (as long as Ekholm doesn’t start real age-related regression) but, at the same time, there is a strong argument to break them up to allow each to anchor their own pair.
There is an, in my opinion, misguided narrative out there that Bouchard needs Ekholm and Bouch wouldn’t be as good without him – Ek covers up for all his defensive blunders, etc. That theory does not play out with the numbers.
Bouchard played 275 minutes at 5 on 5 away from Ekholm last year and all of his metrics actually went up except for goal share which dropped to a very good 56% – all of the underlying posession metrics increased including expected goals which was 64%.
All of the above holds as well when you take away McDavid in addition to Ekholm – in 155 minutes, Bouchard was near 60% in all underlying metrics and 50% in goal share.
The sample needs to grow but the evidence meets my eye test that Bouchard continues to be an elite play-driving 2-way d-man when away from BOTH McDavid and Ekholm.
In my opinion, while of course the two compliment each other, I think that Boucahrd helps Ekholm as much, if not more, than Ekholm helps Bouchard.
I have zero doubt that Bouchard can anchor a 1st pairing and little doubt that Ekholm can anchor a second pairing.
One would expect that Nurse would be with Bouchard in this scenario but part of me thinks that Nurse should be able to anchor the last pairing and those three guys can be split up – I don’t think they’ll go that far.
Remember, if Ekholm and Bouchard are split, then can be put together in an instant, at any time!
Ekholm certainly helped Bouchard find his way. Moving Ekholm with another young player shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
No doubt Ekholm helped Bouchard.
I think its become somewhat obvious that Bouchard is a big part of Ekholm’s success as well. Ekholm always had a great reputation but wouldn’t have been on many/any lists of the top 15 d-men in the NHL, like he is now, prior to coming to Edmonton, right?
Maybe Bouch can have the same effect on Nurse. And Ekholm can get Emberson on his way. That’s what I’d like to see anyway.
Bouchard may have helped Ekholm as much as Ekholm helped Bouchard.
Ekholm might get exposed more often, and a lot more beat up playing away from Bouchard and McDavid.
McDavid and Bouchard mask any age-related decline in Ekholm.
People always assume linearity, normal distributons, and mean reversion. The world is NOT linear, often leptokurtic, and it is chaotic, and sometimes with slow hysteresis.
After looking up the meaning of Leptokurtic (be honest, how many of you knew that word? And I have degree in math!), I remain unsure of what your actually trying to say, except maybe that you are trying to say Ek is old and needs to be sheltered?
All of this can be true and it still be a good idea to try
Nurse – Bouchard
Ekholm – Emberson/Stetcher
Fewer minutes on the ice for a 34 year old man does not strike me as a radical idea.
Absolutely. Ek is so important right now for them his well being is a huge priority when it’s go time. Reg season is jockeying for position
You’re awfully definitive about all of your opinions for someone who believes this to be true.
This ignores his well established ability. Yes he’s aging, and has had some issues at times that I believe are to do with accumulating wear
Ekholm is a quietly excellent player, the kind you need to win championships. It is far from certain how well Bouch would do away from the gravity of that sun defensively over time. Bouch is an outstanding player, but also young and prone to mental lapses, he’s not Doughty who foams at the mouth to win every single thing, also like Connor
It is a very good idea, as Bowman has been saying, since things change every year to see if they can’t find something even better, not assume that what was will be again. I am happy to hear that. They can very simply revert at any time given health
Nothing is certain but the 274 minutes away from Ekholm with sparkling results is not a throwaway sample size.
I think Bouch is great, I’ve also watched a lot of offensive D step back when away from a player like Ekholm. It’s a progression Bouch is younger, I believe he will get there if not there
You keep saying that but ignore what he did last season away from Ekholm like it didn’t happen. Its 274 5 on 5 minutes.
5v5 I don’t think anyone sees the new defensive lineup as any better. But on the PK, could they attain a similar level?
’23-’24 Net PK%
EDM 82.2 (16th)
ARI 79 (24th)
’23-’24 Pk TOI/GP (xGA60)
Out:
Ceci 2.35 (8.03)
Desharnais 2.02 (5.97)
Broberg 1.10 (4.83)
In:
Dermott 2.35 (8.79)
Stetcher 2.13 (9.92)
Brown 2.03 (8.78)
All of the replacement players have NHL PK experience. Stetcher could replace Ceci and Brown could replace Desharnais based on TOI/GP.
The PK seems mostly to be determined by resolve, not talent. Can this group muster a similar level of resolve and post equal to better PK numbers than last season? Can Brown be motivated/trained to be new “Seaweed man,” ? It’s definitely possible. Is it probable?
Does a healthy right side have both Stecher and Brown in the lineup?
The GA/60 for the Phoenix3 are significantly worse.
Is 8.03 correct for Ceci? For me, that’s surprisingly high.
Looks like those are xGA/60, not GA/60.
GA/60 is:
Ceci 7.6
Desharnais 8.3
Broberg 8.5 (but 14 minutes TOI)
Brown 7.4
Dermott 10.2
Stecher 10.3
So 🤷
Well, hopefully Dermott is just an extra body for exhibition games.
Of all the inexpensive options floated over the past couple of weeks, I would like to see Shattenkirk in Oilers silks as the 6/7.
Interesting, what were Klefbom numbers in 14-15? 60 games played, I guessing they weren’t great ether
Klefbom’s numbers were actually remarkably good that year. That Oilers team was just awful (under 40%GF at 5v5 as a team). 1st overall bad.
And even with that, Klefbom’s raw numbers were better than Dermott’s last season. If you look relative to team the difference is an absolute chasm.
That said, I do think Dermott could be much better on a better team and in a different system (if he even makes it).
While I agree with getting the best players that you can, they are getting a bit light on D outside of Nurse and Ekholm. OP says Brown is going down, I’m not sure he clears being RS and huge tough and a long term NHL player even with the term, he’s still heap. I hope these other guys are mean enough which compensates. Playing big or aggressive bigger forwards is not easy in playoffs if you can’t handle them physically
I would be absolutely shocked if he got claimed.
He’s “cheap” in the grand scheme of things but still over-capped by $225K and for 3-years – that contract had to have been waiver protection – that’s the only reasonable reason I can think of.
1M vs 2M for a similar player to me is the reason for the contract. It’s not a capped team that would claim, but some aren’t and may want the truculence, he may have had other offers which means interest
Perhaps – it would be shocking to me though.
The Oilers just added a player via PTO that was ahead of Brown on the depth chart last season.
I saw that Gags signed a PTO in Carolina. It warms my heart to know that MudCrutch has a soft spot for ex-Oilers.
From Gazolla:
Hearing that Evander Kane & Darnell Nurse are expected to start training camp on the shelf due to injury.
Nurse has been on the ice for informal skates & continues to heal up a lingering injury from the playoffs. The projection is he will be good to go later in camp.
Maybe Nurse can go on LTIR until playoffs,,,? 😁
Ooh My. At least this confirms for me why Nurse looked so lethargic. Any rumours what his injury was I hope he doesn’t return until healthy. With the Bouchard-Ekholm pairing chewing up huge minutes we can fill the bottom 4 by committee. I hope Kris and Coffey open it up with the talent we have up front I’ll take the 7-4 6-3 wins for the first 20 games.
A PTO LHD seems much more prudent if there’s any question about one of the starting LD.
Agreed and that’s in addition to it being prudent even if there weren’t questions about Nurse’s health.
So the Oilers knew this about Nurse, and still thought offering Broberg 2 x $2 million was a bad idea. To not buy back the embedded offer sheet option, but also to NOT pay for a left D injury insurance premium.)
I would suggest that an established player perhaps missing some training camp (or even a couple weeks or a month of a season) should result in overpaying others to compensate.
$2MM x 2 would have been an overpay of over $500K per season based on accomplishment during the player’s ELC.
The mistake was made long before any thought of an injury to Nurse. I would trace it to the summer of 2023.
Leafs sign 6’7” 225 RD Jani Hakanpaa to a 1year $1.4725 contract.
Hmmmmm…
Broken
Not sure about that.
Had a knee injury last season but played 82 and 80 games the previous 2.
I read there were concerns from the Stars about the knee this summer. The Leafs, desperate as per
Leafs now with four legit RD.
I see they now have signed Pacioretty to a PTO.
Giving the Oilers a run in the Country for Old Men sweepstakes.
Heh heh
’PatioReady’ as Habs called him is also broken. Rolling the dice
Hey is this the same Hakanpaa you have been hyping for Dallas, saying he would give Dallas the most complete D in the league?
And I see he grew 2 inches in the last 4 months. What an incredible feat for a 32 year old.
“Harpers Hair
Reply to Ryan
May 28, 2024 4:21 pm
With the return of Hintz and his awakening of Robertson, the mountain just got higher.
And Hakanpaa is travelling with the team and skating so there’s a chance he could return in this series.
He’s 6’5″ and 220 and would shore up the 3rd pairing nicely.”
And if we face him in the playoffs he’ll be 6’9”
Some players do step “up” in the post season.
It seems to give them a lift.
I wonder if Podkolzin has shrunk back down now that he’s an Oiler?
Yes, latest NHL data has him at 4’7″, 103 lbs with skinny stick arms and weak ankles with top skating speed of 17 mph. Last year in Vancouver he was 6’3″, 225, top speed 86 mph and a 275 mph shot. Wonder what happened? Oh wait he got traded to Edmonton. (When with this lame whiny petulant twat give up?)
So with news of the Dermott PTO signing and nothing else, I have to assume the Oilers are out on Shattenkirk and Schultz. Although perhaps the vets are holding out for a guaranteed contract.
I think that’s exactly it. We’ll know soon but until they are announced in other camps there is still a chance imo.
Can’t read site when holding phone sideways 😫😫😫
I too am also still having this issue
It’s an annoying glitch that popped up recently. I had found a quick fix, but people liked it even less.
It’s something that appears to be caused by a theme update or conflict with a theme update and something else.
I am still working on it.
Thanks Ryan for everything you do for us here.
Sometime during the decade of darkness I stopped coming here for hockey news but kept coming back for lines like That’s because you’re a traitor and a dog-faced man who doesn’t love his family! Good to see that even though the hockey’s improved the commentary has kept pace!
And yet the Oilers have 3 Dmen from that team. Risky business.
Surely not all of that bad teams worst players were not good?
Jeff Jackson said strait up something like this was coming:
The #Oilers have made three hockey operations additions, hiring Tobias Salmelainen for Player Acquisition & Development (Europe), Andreas Karlsson as Player Development Coach & Vincent Malts as Mental Performance & Player Development Coach.
—————
I know nothing about any of these hires but I do know that building out the player development group was something Jackson said was primary since the day he was hired.
All I know about Andreas Karlsson other than him having a pretty solid pro career is that he scored the winner in the SHLs longest ever game. So maybe he can teach the boys how to be clutch.
Yamamoto signs a PTO in Utah.
Yippee!!
I always hoped he’d catch on with Seattle, if he wasn’t going to work out here.
How does a guy score 26 points in 27 games at age 21 and have no contract at age 26?
I always thought he’d be our DeBrincat, but alas.
DeBrincat is ’27 lbs’ heavier which is hard to believe. The realities of playing at 153 lbs in a league where most players are around 200 and defenceman heavier. He should play in Europe where he can use his skill
Yamo needs to be in the paint to score. Tough place to make a living just ask Craig Simpson. He was very effective at drawing penalties early on because he went down so hard then the Refs stopped calling any fouls on him. If he had hands he would still be a Oiler scoring 25 plus.
And let me guess – he is NOW suddenly bigger, faster, heavier and more aggressive, about to go off like a rocket. Or maybe that would just be the case if he signed with – who are fancrushes today? Vancouver, Dallas, Colorado, LA….
If Stretcher finishes the season as #7 in toi, that means things have gone very well with Emberson and the Oilers have nabbed another quality 2RHD. Seems good to me.
if Stecher is 7 is Emberton 2nd pair?
I find it interesting that suddenly there are so many D that can play both sides. Where is the information coming from – are there any stats? Are they any good at it? Kulak was supposed to be able to play RD but doesn’t like it and got stats spanked in the playoffs IIRC. Puck IQ and his career say Dermott can’t even play LD that well
There has always been a shortage of RH defensemen at all levels of hockey. LH defense have been pushed to the right side forever.
Usually, in minor hockey, it has been the player with quicker feet and slightly higher processing speed/hockey IQ who get moved over as he can recover more effectively when his stick is outside the play.
At the NHL level, it is much more challenging. The data suggests the success rate is rather low.
Dallas has been stockpiling them.
They currently have 3 on their active roster plus Heiskanen who plays the right side and have selected another 4 in recent drafts.
The one problem with so many prospects is if they are blocked and you may choose the wrong one when it comes to the waiver wire. As a G.M I’m hiring smart folks that get off their asses and look and identify that crop of players who hit the waiver wire to begin the year especially 23-25 D-men. Oilers need to start finding diamonds in the rough l believe it started with Emberson.
Yes, that’s my point. This summer apparently there are lots of D that can play off hand, even at 40. They can do it yes, skate on that side, is it a good idea though unless an emergency?
Iirc, Kulak said he had not played RHD since juniors. Which is why he complained about it in the playoffs.
That’s what I’m getting at. It has been said around here many times Kulak could play right side. Or some other player, but there isn’t a way to find out much about that I know of. And most can’t without a pretty good drop off it seems
So…to get two months of Nick Bjugstad, we gave Arizona their up-and-coming #5 defenseman (Mike Kesselring).
Now we have their aging #6, #7, and #8 defensemen (Stecher, Brown, and Dermott).
This kinda seems like going backwards.
i second this opinion.
Didn’t like the trade before the ink dried as I saw Kesselring good and able to fit a role at a reasonable cost.
If Bumstead was a fit and resigned like Henrique you can live with the trade but as it stand now it was a bad move giving up a promising young big D who’s arrows were quietly going up fast. This player Kesserling should of been test driven but as Kenny said on numerous occasions it’s go time.
So many were in love the Bjugstad acquisition at the time and during his time as an Oilers.
I was one of a few that were vehemently against Kesselring being part of that trade.
Not sure how vehement I was, but I’m pretty sure I too questioned the wisdom of trading a draft pick plus D prospect for a questionable (but of course big) forward.
When Brown was signed on July 1, I think it was with the intent that he’d start the season as 8D in the AHL.
The team had Broberg in the mix at the time as well as Ceci (now Emberson).
Whether one thinks he’s ahead or below Stecher on the depth chart heading in to camp, he’s moved up a spot on the depth chart and is 7D/4RD at worst (and may be battling Phil Kemp for that spot – should be at least).
While Brown has his attributes, i believe they main one’s are face-punching and PK – I don’t see solid defending at 5 on 5 as part of his resume.
Perhaps Dermott is not that solid defender either but the Oilers need more depth on the left side and he does play both sides and I think he’s slotted ahead of Brown on the depth chart.
I remain of the opinion that the contract structure for Brown is related to waiver claim protection.
Three weeks ago (give or take), Stauff said he was 100% certain the Oilers were going to bring a d-man in on a PTO and it was a player that had played in the NHL and was known to Knob.
Every since then I though Dermott was the likely option and, for me, it makes sense.
None of the right shot options looked like they would be able to even tread water at the 2RD and, truth be told, there are three d-men capable of playing 3RD (although Josh Brown I think is a 7D). They had options via numbers even if no legit 2RD.
On the other hand, there were no real “options via numbers” on the left side – the left side is locked and loaded but, after the 3, Gleason is next up and getting a legit 7D/4LD vet made/makes the most sense.
If signs, he would likely push Josh Brown to the AHL and I think that was the plan when the initially signed him (having Stecher, Ceci and Broberg all expected Oilers).
Things sure change in a hurry. And we’ll see how all the pieces fit.
My goodness you are right a lot
It all looks balanced on the blue line.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Emberson
Kulak-Stecher
Dermott-Brown.
Have never understood signing low-ceiling players to PTOs. Doesn’t make sense.
Also – this had better not be his Liam Reddox.
So what would you do?
Sign no one?
You know this isn’t a real response, right? Simply objecting is perfectly fine and valid.
What would I do is a whole lot of things. In terms of PTOs, Shattenkirk makes sense. Gagner would already have been here. DeAngelo. Klingberg if he can skate. JVR. Hoffman.
It’s good to have a pile of vets around who mostly disappear, but also might hit with someone on your team or the Coach or whatever. Always with higher possible ceilings though.
It becomes irrelevant though because I’d also have signed Holloway, attempted to trade for an RHD already using stronger assets than most would be willing to move. Not signed J Brown or a few of the other FAs. I could go on.
Thank goodness the Oiler management team is making sense with their decisions.
I’m actually not sure if you mean my response or yours.
In any case, thanks for the reply.
PTOs for higher skill rather than lower skill vets makes lots of sense.
And fair enough about doing more earlier to address weakness.
Out of curiosity, would you also have signed Broberg?
Matched him? No.
Signed him at the 1.8 or so bandied about? Yeah I think so.
BUT – I was actually in favor of trading him 2 years ago. I’m a big believer in trading prospects that have initial value but don’t spike. Sather was a master at trading when other GMs still valued players who were not going to make it or had a lower ceiling than their draft pedigree.
Was there anyone in particular you wanted back for Bouchard?
You criticize signing Dermitt as signing a low-ceiling player, but then advocate for signing Gagner. Are you referring to a Gagner that is not Sam Gagner or are you simply contradicting yourself?
Gagner’s goal ceiling based on last year’s performance despite incredibly limited action makes him fit for me. The man can still put the puck in the net and set people up. Even from line 4. Again – he probably doesn’t make it – but he’s also not Adam Erne.
Dermott is so famous that people routinely misspell his name…
I wouldn’t look to him in the same way I wouldn’t sign 4th liners and 5th/6th D to long term deals. If you’re going to grab an extra – make it a guy who wouldn’t shock you if he put up 20 assists because he was given more minutes.
I guess when you’ve got nothing else resort to slagging on spelling like you’ve never heard of auto-correct.
I would suggest Dermott makes more sense than any of those guys.
I can’t imagine why Hoffman would be needed on this team. Shattenkirk historically plays less than 20% of TOI vs. elites, he is not a player this team needs
Holloway is interesting.
His future scoring is a bit hard to predict or project. I didn’t like the pick at the time of the draft.
He didn’t score much during the regular season but, he had a bit of a run during the playoffs. He can skate.
Still, at $2.29 m, I was surprised that we didn’t match. I went on record there saying that I would have matched. Not the worst price for top six injury cover.
Not every procurement piece has to be in the vein if “high ceiling” and max skill.
This team had/has a hole at “veteran left side D”. The current options are less than tweeners who had not played in the NHL in a very long time and not many games (Gleason and Dineen).
This is a young vet that, if signed, will come at league min, has recent NHL experience, will push Josh Brown to the AHL and has some versatility with playing both sides.
Dermott fits the vet, young enough, can play both sides and will be happy being a 6/7 dman at league minimum. History with McDavid and Knoblauch as a teammate helps for sure. Allows us to send down Brown, who will not be claimed as he is paid too much and has 3 years on his deal. He is a recall option if needed.
And Dermott doesn’t really block anyone, while still being young enough to fit the core and see some growth (Kulak is a great comparable)
Is $1M too much these days?
it is when it’s 3 years in length. And for a 7th dman, $1 mill is too much. Cap is tight, so league minimum is needed (why I believe unless of injury no way Brown starts in the show)
Should of taken Connor teammate in the Benson draft.