The Edmonton Oilers had a good night Saturday, getting some answers in badly needed areas. It’s important to remember the Oilers organization rarely makes an outrageous roster move at this time of the year, so names like Noah Philp, Raphael Lavoie and Travis Dermott may start the season with the AHL Bakersfield Condors. Last night was encouraging, with many miles to go.
ABOUT LAST NIGHT
Noah Philp scored a goal, drew a penalty and won six of seven on the draw. I would have him in my opening night lineup, not sure Kris Knoblauch is going to feel comfortable fading some of the veterans so that Philp’s debut in the NHL may have to wait. He’s NHL ready. His line, with Lane Pederson and Matt Savoie, owned a 39 percent expected goal share. Philp’s the NHL player on that line.
Raphael Lavoie scored a goal, had five shots and looked his best on a night when the Condors received what is likely their final chance to make the squad. Lavoie played so well he might receive another game. We’ll see.
Sam O’Reilly led Oilers forwards in PK time on ice! Jesus, Mary and Joseph! Knoblauch’s training camp has mostly been textbook, and I can’t see the club keeping O’Reilly. That said, they are putting him in situations that suggest they are evaluating him as a possible roster player. I’m 80 percent sure he gets sent out. It was 100 percent a week ago.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard were golden, as always. In 16:15 at five-on-five they were 60 percent expected goals. Ekholm was the offensive star of the game, going 1-2-3 on the night. Ken Holland’s best trade.
Ben Gleason and Phil Kemp played together, it’s a possible pairing in Bakersfield. In 9:37, they were 1-0 goals, 4-5 shots and 32 percent expected goals. Both could be recalls this season.
Travis Dermott and Troy Stecher both played well in 9:36 five-on-five. A 60 percent expected goal share and a clean house, I’ll guess both men play in the NHL with the Oilers this season. I have Stecher as a ‘certain Oiler’ and Josh Brown as ‘uncertain’ on my depth chart. I was asked about that in the comments section, and will tell you why.
For me, Stecher is a player who can play in the heart of the game. Up 2-1, final minute, tied, or even a goal behind. I don’t see Josh Brown as that player. In fact, Brown brings roster value in a narrow view, like Sam Gagner a year ago.
Don’t get me wrong. You can see why the Oilers want Brown on the roster from a game like last night. A team gets running around less often when fear enters the chat. Brown brings intimidation. However, he also has to be able to play capably at five-on-five and penalty kill.
For me, Brown is the seventh defenseman. So, the competition, Dermott, et al, are chasing Brown, not Stecher.
The next step? Getting Nurse-Emberson and Kulak-Stecher reps. Lots and lots of them.
CERTAIN AND UNCERTAIN OILERS
THE DISTANT BELLS
I’ve moved Lane Pederson to the distant bells, he had a chance in camp but the fourth line center job will belong to someone else this fall.
New for The Athletic: How is the Edmonton Oilers’ defence shaping up in preseason?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5800616/2024/09/29/edmonton-oilers-defence-nurse-preseason/
Blake Wheeler still without a contract.
Moves around at about league average speed, still has a cannon of a shot.
He plans to sign a one day contract to retire as a Jet.
I feel for Phil Kemp. He has everything except NHL boots it seems. Unless the team is sure they can get a player up to ‘speed’, there is no point drafting them, it’s wasted pick, and late picks don’t have to be if they are done right, like Des and Wanner, or even Flattenburg, because he has an edge that most players don’t that is valuable if they can get the hockeying up enough
Skating technique issues are fixable, like Philp, but some guys are just slow, like Perry, and they usually don’t have the rest of what he does/did, he’s a rare case, not a unicorn to chase in the draft
My goodness you’re covering a lot of ground here.
Are you suggesting Bob Green drafted Kemp back in 2017 because of Corey Perry?
No of course not. I’m saying drafting players with significant NHL red flags (that you aren’t pretty sure can be coached up) and hoping they will change because Corey Perry or David Savard had careers and are slow is not a good strategy. Just like trying to draft Lucic again wasn’t
This management group seems to value skating more, as they should. The less obstacles to making the league the better as I see it. With a small player like Savoie, his offensive talent offsets his size because he is a strong skater, can play the boards and inside because he is strong on his skates
I don’t think any team ever drafts a player that they feel has ‘significant red flags’ hoping they will change.
Clattenburg’s lack of offense was a significant red flag (0.5 points per game in his 18/19 year old OHL season), so you’re picking and choosing your red flags.
And is skating even the reason Kemp isn’t an NHLer already?
Kemp isn’t in the NHL
ergo
Kemp’s skating is the reason
ergo
The organization shouldn’t have wasted the #208 pick on him 7 years ago because they should have known his skating wasn’t good enough.
And then somehow tying that back to successful NHLers who aren’t good skaters. You did say Perry was “not a unicorn to chase in the draft”, implying the Oilers or others were doing so.
I sure hope we don’t lose Lavoie over Perry. Damn shame.
Lavoie is in no man’s land Podkolzin is Bowman’s man and will get the push. Lavoie ship has sailed in Edmonton I do think he’ll get a opportunity with a new team. This player was mismanaged he was overcooked and buried for Bert&Ernie.
If you can’t outplay marginal veterans when given the chance, whose fault is it?
I’m rooting for the kid but his timing hasn’t coincided with his opportunities. Nor his consistency.
Just because you like him doesn’t mean he wasn’t given fair opportunities, multiple times.
I mean, he has clearly outplayed Perry this camp.
Also, at this point what is the risk/reward of Perry getting waived vs Lavoie.
Hey, no quarrel from me. He deserves a long look before sending him down. I’d rather risk losing Perry on waivers (especially with Cal Clutterbuck just waiting for a league minimum contract). If Lavoie is going to sail on, I’d at least like to see him get a fair shake instead of sending him down and risking alienating him. He’s earning a spot in real time.
This is really becoming a tiresome narrative, you are aware of that right?
Many many times others have pointed out that Lavoie has not met the challenge and grab himself a spot.
Just saying over and over again that he has been mismanaged or his ship has sailed or Montreal will grab him isn’t really informative or adding to the discussion.
Me as well. He seems like a late bloomer, and another year dominating in the A and getting better, and him accepting reality, could make him a cheap helpful bottom 6 next season when 4 regular F spots potentially open up. Ryan and Perry won’t be back, and likely not J Skinner and C Brown because cap
A chance to play on this team is worth the wait when you still have some kinks to iron out, and he does. It would almost certainly mean bigger future contracts for him. It’s better for a player’s rep to be a solid bottom 6 with some offense on a top team that a GM might see as having higher potential, than maybe getting top 6 reps on a crap team
I see this at odds with your frequent statements about playing younger players with higher ceilings that incumbent vets.
Lavoie has a higher floor and ceiling than Perry. I’d rather see Lavoie through some mistakes related to growing pains than watch Perry miss plays because the game has passed him by.
Waive Perry, keep Lavoie around until he demonstrates if he belongs or not.
I haven’t changed my view. Lavoie isn’t quite there yet, pretty close. Philp is further ahead to me, nothing lacking in his game except experience and I think Lavoie has some things to work on still
They may keep Lavoie around, I have also said that with the signings and who they are, it doesn’t look like there is much room for a rookie outside of Philp maybe beating Ryan out. Nobody has blown the doors off making it a no brainer. Of course if they think they will lose Lavoie to waivers they might keep him up and try to trade him
I’ll add it’s not about ceiling or potential to me, or development, it’s about younger players playing better now overall than incumbents. Whoever helps win now or playoffs. I also say I would rather they play a lesser healthy player than a guy as hurt as Kane who was struggling so much in playoffs. Like Holloway and Bro displaced more experienced players because they were given a shot and got better results, at least in Goal Diff
Keep both for around 10 games or so. Play both equally and waive one.
Connor Clattenburg named captain of the Flint team
It was mentioned that a strong top 4 D is critical to success late. NHL_SID has a piece up and mentioned that only 2 teams had 2 pairs in the top 12 league wide in xG Diff %, the Oilers and Canes
The Canes lost a lot this off season back end. I’m not sure it’s possible to have 4 quality D for long because cap without sacrificing at forward. The approach the Oilers took looks like the right approach, low cost guys with something the stats guys must like. It’s a gamble but with higher upside if it works until the players price themselves off the team. Then you try again
https://oilersnation.com/news/should-josh-brown-be-an-nhl-regular-for-the-edmonton-oilers
If the top pair and the bottom pair are exceptional, as Ekholm & Bouchard and Kulak & Desharnais apparently were, it takes pressure off of an inadequate second pair. Which does make sense. So, maybe Kulak & Emberson can be that third pair for Nurse & Stecher because we already know Ekholm & Bouchard are among the best.
https://oilersnation.com/news/should-josh-brown-be-an-nhl-regular-for-the-edmonton-oilers
That’s a damning article and not much different than some of have been saying, including our host.
Thank you for the response to the question, much appreciated.
I wish you are right that Stecher is certain and Brown is uncertain (and you might be) but I’m not sure the decision makers for the Oilers have it that way. We’ll continue to get more information on this one.
Here is hoping we see some Kulak/Stecher, if its Kulak/Brown tomorrow (again), well…..
London doesn’t play again until Friday and the Oilers aren’t making cuts until Tuesday – he may or may not play in that game but I think he goes after it – and he should have himself a shiny new ELC to take with him on the plane (which will be subject to slide this season AND next season presuming he doesn’t play in the NHL next season – is back to junior or NHL next season as well – not AHL eligible).
If Cowan makes the Leafs out of camp this should move O’Reilly and Nicholl up the batting order. I’m really liking the early returns on the new gangs 1st draft. How can you not love the crasher banger and now team Captain Clattenburg.
I mentioned last night that, despite his nice goal work in the faceoff circle and on the PK, he played the least on the team at 5 on 5 (under 7 minutes) and got throttled by the Ben Myers line – of course, mitigating factor is, as LT mentions, being on a non-NHL line.
I know that Derek Ryan is better suited as a 4RW but its really the 4C spot that Philp/Ryan are competing for and, well, Derek Ryan also had a good game last night with a couple great passes for primary assists.
Philp is waivers exempt, Lavoie it not and is becoming a potential waiver claim risk. Its really Corey Perry that SHOULD be at risk of losing his roster spot to Lavoie – saves $375K of cap space and could make the team strong (COULD).
Ryan being a PK guy is an important tidbit – they plan on using Pod (never killed in the AHL) and Arvidsson (didn’t kill as a King) on the PK – removing Ryan as a PK seems risky.
Philp can come up and down – just call him up for short stints to give Ryan some time off, re-assign Philp on off-days, etc. and send him down to get Ryan back in until Philp makes it so that Ryan has to go on waivers.
I think Noah won’t have to wait long to become a everyday 4-C. The puck does seem to follow him around hopefully he can get Savoie and Lavoie kickstarted and tear up the A.H.L out of the gate. That is if Lavoie isn’t traded or picked up on waivers. I could see the Habs trying to get some size after Laine knee collision which looked nasty on the replay.
I’m beginning to agree with your assessment of Troy Stecher. He played well last night and so did Dermott. But if Emberson isn’t the partner for Nurse then Stecher provides another option. If neither can play with Nurse, then they may be forced to put Kane on LTIR and get someone who can. To Josh Brown’s credit he has only played 2 exhibition games where he played well in one and not the other. So, we need to see him somemore before passing to harsh a judgement, as well we need to see Travis Dermott on his off side to see if he truly has that versatility to his game. If so he IMO wins the 7th D position. That’s it in a nutshell.
Signing Skinner and Arvidsson on July 1 was to grease the wheels for re-signing Drai (he has not had 2 legit L2 wingers for most of his games in Edmonton) which greases the wheels for re-signing McAwesome and Bouchard. It is frustrating to see that L2 has not played a game together yet this late in pre-season. They should play together the remainder of the preseason – getting them going is a lot more important than who is going to be F12 and F13. Get on it!
Great to see O’Reilly doing so well, but he isn’t going to play in the NHL this year. Now that he has a taste for it, time to send him to London and let him have a year to continue his development and most likely dominate. This was a very good pick by the scouts and to trade the 25 first rounder to get him at the tail of the 24 first round – well done!
The only F signing that bugged me this summer was Perry. He is slow. He is old. I get what he brings to the team to help guys out, but there are other important elements to have in the bottom six like PK and speed. I take Ryan over Perry most days of the week, but both are old. Ryan had a great game last night and I have been a fan of his game even before he came to Edmonton. Both guys are ideal mentors to the helping Philp, Podz and Lavoie improve their games. Given the history of this club however I suspect the vets will get their seats at the table and the kids will get axed. I will be okay if they send Philp to Bakersfield for 4-6 weeks to get him more ice time and continue to get back into the rigours of day – to – day hockeying but he is ready. He is 4C, right now. I think Ryan should be 4RW and it seems Podz gets 4LW but I have been impressed with Lavoie for the NHL games I have seen him play in the past year. I am sure he has impressed other teams as well. A patient team could develop him into a 3LW.
I know there are merits in having 7D and 12F for accruing cap space, but there are also merits in having emerging talent play on this team. There is no way Ryan and Perry can handle 82 games this year and play in the playoffs. So….set out as you mean to go….but I really doubt they will waive Perry or Ryan and I believe they will waive Lavoie and there is a good chance he gets picked up by another team further emptying the cupboards over the past few months….
Everybody knows the games get harder as the season begins. Keeping Lavoie for 10-15 games to see if there is a drop off affects the accrual somewhat but seems a small price to pay to find out if he is truly NHL ready – either for this team or with actual trade value.
They have the cap space; I say use it if there is any question at all.
A patient team has been developing Lavoie. He’s in what, D+6? Barely starting to make a legit case for being a roster player at the NHL level? If that’s not patience, I don’t know what is.
Agree with you on the Perry signing. I would have preferred Cal Clutterbuck, who plays a similar game and shows better by basically every NHL Edge metric, plus he’s a grizzled vet that’s three years younger. And is an ace on the PK.
I like what Perry adds – that super irritating thing. But I think waiving him to keep Lavoie is a better idea. And early in the season there is “some” time to take to evaluate exactly what a “young ones” line of Philp, Podkolzin and Lavoie might offer over Ryan or Perry.
A third line of Janmark-Hendrick-Brown
is not going to compliment the top six, the drop off will be too significant.
i would pencil Nuge and/or Arvisson on the third line to increase the impact and the TOI during what is basically a mean less regular season.
Lavoie-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Driasaitl-Brown
Nuge-Hendrick-Arvidsson
Janmark-Philp-Ryan
PP 1 – Same as last year
PK1 -Nuge/Brown
PK 2 Janmark/Philp
PK 3 Ryan/Hendrick
They did a superb job when the coach was rotating every soup can available alongside Draisaitl, I think they’ll be fine.
I’d love to see a Pod/Philp/Lavoie 4th line.
Hot take alert! And please, spell Henrique’s name correctly. It’s a respect thing.
Brosef Ragassidy agrees whole heartedly
Borgnine Raffletree as well.
Sarn Ganger is probably a little sad that people started to care about spelling names correctly after his time here had come to close.
That’s more balanced but won’t happen unless there are problems of some sort. Nuge may be approaching third line play at 5v5 but it won’t happen yet. People management will come first
Why not just call him Schmendrick, if you’re not going to bother spelling it at all close to correctly?
The 3rd line looks fine, and despite what OP thinks, players can actually pressure the puck for ~12 to ~14 minutes per night for an entire season.
Just ask the Panthers. That’s their entire system.
There’s no way Lavoie plays on the top line instead of Nuge. Maybe during the exhibition season. And it’s Henrique or maybe Rico. But not Hendrick.
I do like Matt Hendricks but he’s just not enough of a threat to score.
I see THREE new sweaters breaking camp….Philp, Lavoie, and Stecher. It is right and just.
Podkolzin?
FOUR.
Stetcher already played 7 games for the Oilers last season. Podkolzin seems like a lock, and one of Lavoie or Philip might make the roster.
I’m 100% certain Ryan makes the team barring injury. KK talked glowingly about his PK chemistry with RNH in the post-game presser. Talked about players in the bottom 6 needing to fill “roles”.
Philip definitely could fill a role in our bottom 6 as a RH faceoff specialist and alternate PKer.
Unless a top 9 winger gets injured or Perry decides he wants to go on a conditioning stint during the early part of the season … I don’t see Lavoie making the cut.
O’Reilly would make the Oilers in bygone years during the DoD. Terrific player .., I can’t wait to track his progress in the OHL this season. The confidence he’s gaining in training camp should help his coaches see that he is ready to be the top dog in London.
The Oilers defense. People need some reason to believe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKnnh8VDULs
Philip Broberg. I am going to be driving for awhile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fUkWRZyJTY
Let it go.
https://youtu.be/CWnm-a4UyUA?si=StBuYgVS5QElLYvm
Try this way
Holloway&Broberg updates on the hour. Could these 2 compare to the losses of Satan and the trade of Coffey?
I don’t think a center has won a job out of camp drafted in late 20s through 30s since Ryan Oreilly did it with the Avs in 09.
Patrice Bergeron.
Yes I believe 2003 is before 2009
Patrice Bergeron was in…2003, I think. It’s a rare outcome for sure.
Sebastian Aho is close. July birthday…so two months…but he would have been drafted higher the following year. He spend draft +1 in Finland.
Wyatt Johnston is close. Spent draft+1 in junior. But missed one year of junior hockey, but would have been draft higher if he had not lost the Covid year.
David Pastrnak…except a right wing. Technically, a few games in the minors.
Ago was used almost exclusively on the wing during his first few seasons.
Aho … stoopid autocorrect.
Performance by established players in exhibition really means nothing. They are doing what they need to do to get ready for the season and not necessarily doing what leads to the best impact on that game that night. Corey Perry being much less impactful than Lavoie (and Philp) doesn’t mean that much except we also know that he was, well, not good in the playoffs.
In order to accrue real cap space to bank, they don’t have room for an extra healthy forward but Lavoie and Philp have both made real cases.
Lavoie is becoming a real waivers loss risk as well.
It starting to make the most sense to waive Perry and keep Lavoie. Not only for asset management and potential for the best lineup but that also saves $375K on the cap and increases accrual. Perry is over paid and he may clear.
I think they should try that swap to start the season and they likely also send Philp down as he is waivers exempt. They would then be able to call up Philp for a few days or a week here or there to give Ryan and break and get Philp some games and then send him back down when they switch back (or, if he’s as good as he might be, that’s the time to waive Ryan).
Im not sure they will waive Perry to start the season and they could possibly have a verbal with him to best his $150k for 15 games. That is pure speculation though.
Ryan had a pretty good game last night as well. KK has a tough decision, and Ryan is not going quietly. It’s good to have so much depth in the organization though. First time in a long time that we can say they seem to have everybody slotted properly at forward.
Perry won’t get claimed unless he wants to be. He has enough rep in the league that a team wouldn’t just do it like with a younger player, they would inquire. I believe this happened a few years ago where his agent said don’t claim him, perhaps the Habs season
I don’t think that was Perry, that was Spezza, was it not?
Perry may have no issues getting claimed – he may want to ensure that $150K bonus vests.
He should clear, I man his contract is an overpay even discounting the bonus.
I’m not convinced the Oilers even consider doing this to start the season.
I don’t have time to check, could be
I have wondered about these cheesy bonuses for Perry. He has made 107M in his career, and if what an agent said is correct that they take home about 35%, that’s 37.45M, not accounting for what he’s made on investments. 150K is pocket change for him. I think bonuses must be motivating for him somehow
Oh, I have been annoyed by the performance bonuses in both of Perry’s contracts with the Oilers.
He grinded the Oilers in these contracts. I can’t speak to his current financial situation but I presume the extra $150K (before taxes, etc.) mean essentially nothing to his day to day (and he may not even “notice” one way or the other) but that cap penalty for that next year if the Oilers are at the cap is meaningful. Similar with the $375K over league min for his cap hit this year – that is definitely meaningful to the Oilers.
No body would claim him. He just wants another shot at the cup. He can play in Bakersfield and be a call up if required.
Its far from a certainty that noone would claim him.
He did score 12 goals in 54 regular season games last season, which is a 15+ goal pace.
Ryan had a good game, may have moved the chances for Philip back a bit. I’m ok with that. Top line minutes in the A is better for him than 9 as 4C. He’ll probably get NHL games this season, but he should be preparing for next season, ironing out the little details, and start his push for 3C as Henrique slows down
A good two way RS 3C would be ideal, hopefully find another RS 4C. They have been short on RS C for too long
I’d rather lose Perry through waivers than Lavoie. That makes the most sense to me. It is also my belief that Philp is going to stay. IMO four players will make up the fourth line, Podkolzin, Philp, Ryan & Lavoie. If Ryan needs a break, go with Lavoie-Philp-Podkolzin.
But no Corey Perry. I know Perry is a vet that won’t give his all in the preseason and what will they tell Corey, except that he isn’t good enough to make the Oilers.
Sorry Corey.
I’d also rather lose Perry at this point but I’m not sure management and the coaching staff feel the same.
Unless they are cratering cap accrual by going with a 23 player roster (including Kane, even if he’s on regular IR), there is no cap space to have all of Ryan, Lavoie and Philp.
I expect Philp starts the season in the AHL – he could get called up for shot stints to give Ryan a break here or there but I don’t see both on the roster.
I am hopeful the keep Lavoie but someone needs to go if they want real cap accrual.
It’s getting late for evaluation as there are only three games left before they count. Line up I’d like to see for the next one
Skinner Draisaitl Arvidsson – these guys need some game action
Lavoie Henrique Brown
Podkolzin Philp Savoie
Janmark Ryan Perry
Nurse Emberson
Kulak Stecher
Dermott Brown
Then it’s time to get down to a roster closer to opening night
Agreed! How quickly that 2 nd line mesh’s and 2 nd D pair goes will have huge impact on season.
That’s right. Much more impact than who is on the fourth line. I think second line and second pair needs 2 of the last three games assuming Nurse is healthy
Has the second line played a single game together?
No, which is strange imo.
Coach said that each of the lines and pairings will likely get 2 out of the last 4 games so I’m sure we’ll see the Drai line tomorrow.
There is always evaluation but I think the only real battles are the 6-8 d-men – which of Stecher or Brown will start with Kulak and will the “loser” get sent down with Dermott getting a contract for 7D or stick.
Perry vs. Lavoie and Ryan vs. Philp may or may not be real battles for opening night although Lavoie introducing himself as a waiver claim risk might change that.
So we are talking 6-8D and, maybe, 12F for roster spot competition.
At least how I currently see things – could be wrong.
7D & 13F & 2G.
Kane is 13F.
Any news on why Pickard left the game? If he’s out for say unsure time limit will Bowman go Goalie hunting?
Contact to the head.
Phil Kemp is humming “Born to Run”. He has little faith, and there is no magic in the night. And those two lanes will take him anywhere next summer. Heaven is waiting down the tracks.
Phil Kemp in the Oilers organization. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAho7YBvitc
I’m just here for the Thunder Road references.
As long as Tweeter isn’t at the wheel.