This is the Oilers lineup mid-September during the 2017 preseason. It’s a wild bunch for sure, some fun names (Yohann Auvitu!) but very few who are still playing NHL hockey. Many young players didn’t make the grade, and some even think Kailer Yamamoto (who has now played more than 300 NHL games) never really made it. I think it’s time for us to have a chat about what success looks like for each individual player.
WHAT DOES SUCCESS LOOK LIKE?
A player chosen in the first round of the NHL draft should play at least 150 games to be considered a success. Those chosen No. 1 overall, or in the top five, should exceed 500 to be considered a success (goalies can be successful with fewer games, of course). By the middle of the first round, the GP requirement dwindles quickly. Sam O’Reilly, chosen at the very end of the 2024 draft, should be considered a success with 150 NHL games. Beyond the first round, any player who reaches 100 NHL games is a success.
Those players chosen after the No. 100 selection should be considered a success if they can manage 50+ games in the NHL. Undrafted signings should be considered a success with a single NHL game on their resumes.
Kailer Yamamoto, chosen No. 22 overall in 2017, has played 303 NHL games. No matter what happens from here, Yamamoto was a successful draft pick.
A tougher one, and I don’t mind telling you this is a difficult math issue, will be Jesse Puljujarvi. Chosen No. 4 overall, he has 356 NHL games on his player card, and is averaging 12-15-27 per 82 games. Simply no way to call that a success. Some will blame the player, others will point to injury, and I’ll suggest the organization handled his early career as badly as is humanly possible.
Puljujarvi, after multiple procedures on hips, had a hat-trick early in this year’s preseason. If he can grab a roster spot, and continue his career as an NHL player, success may come in the future. He is 26. Miles to go.
Among the draft picks 2015+ I consider to be successes: Connor McDavid, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, John Marino, Vincent Desharnais, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Mike Kesselring, Matej Blumel, Phil Kemp.
Among those who are still pushing and could eventually become successes: Jesse Puljujarvi, Markus Niemelainen, Dmitri Samorukov, Olivier Rodrigue, Philip Broberg, Raphael Lavoie, Ilya Konovalov, Dylan Holloway.
Among the picks 2015+ we can view as falling short of success: Tyler Benson, Matthew Cairns, Filip Berglund. YMMV.
CERTAIN AND UNCERTIAN OILERS
The first name from the ‘uncertain’ list has been sent to Bakersfield, and this signals the start of the final stretch of cuts. We should see many more this week, and the distant bells should be just about completely gone. Calvin Pickard’s injury and the performances of Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp and Ben Gleason are notable as we begin an important week.
DISTANT BELLS
There are six names left, and three of those are injured. It’s doubtful Drake Caggiula, Mike Hoffman or Lane Pederson make the team, my guess is we’ll see their futures decided in the next few days. I moved Pederson to the distant bell section after he played wing on the weekend. Perhaps I was mistaken, but I can’t see him making this team out of camp.
TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION DAY
This is a day of reflection for Canadians. I plan to spend part of the day educating myself about the events that occurred during the time I grew up in Maidstone. I need to know about the things that took place not far from where I was growing up, where I was safe and secure and free to live my life. I know many of you share the sentiment, and may want to learn more. I’ll link this and encourage you to link more in the comment section.
For me, I had no idea about what was happening in 1975, and would have been powerless to impact it. What I can do is to look to this generation, see the turmoil and suicide rates, and formulate ideas about how to make things better in this community. It is, after all, a community. We are all equal in the eyes of the God you pray to, this is a fact.
There may be some who frequent this blog who mildly or strongly disagree. That’s fine, we all have our views of things. I ask that you be respectful to those of us who are observing this day in the way it was intended. With sober thought, and an eye to making things better, whatever that might look like.
NEW for The Athletic: Five surprise Edmonton Oilers players who could influence opening-night roster
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5802943/2024/09/30/edmonton-oilers-players-2024-surprise/
Disappointingly crappy lineup for the Nucks tonight – per Gregor:
Canucks expected lineup tonight in EDM…
Bains-Suter-Sprong
Hoglander-Raty-Lekkerimaki
Di Giuseppe – Aman- Sherwood
Mueller- Sasson- Smith
Pettersson – Juulsen
Kudryastev-Desharnais
Wolanin-Friedman
Lankinen
I really don’t get that McDavid slot – given Philp is probably in need for a day off, why not throw Hamblin there?
That 4th line is a throw-away line at this point – all but zero chance any stick with the team as Philp is the clear front runner over all three of them.
If that is the defensive pairings, a continuing indication that they really hope Brown is the 3RD, right?
Neither Stecher nor Kemp have played with Kulak at all.
So next game we should see
Lavoie Philp Ryan
battle it out for the last forward spots
I have a feeling Podkolzin and Skinner get flipped at some point in the game. Even though it’s exhibition I can see Vasily having a big game against the organization that ostracized him.
Just looks like another evaluation game for Podkolzin & Perry. The former to get a chance to show his offensive game and the latter to see if he still has his to play with skill in certain circumstances.
The fourth line just looks like a thank you to the AHL leadership group before heading south.
The defensive pairings are intriguing to me. Lots of opportunity for conspiracy theories in all three.
I thought evaluation scenarios would be done by now but apparently Knoblauch isn’t quite there. I expect Philp & Lavoie each get at least one more game after this.
Nurse meeting with the doctor today and they are hoping he gets 1-2 games.
Man, this just keeps sounding worse and worse. I believe I heard somewhere the injury was to his core?
Being that the injury was serious enough that still not fully healed 3 months later, the optimistic side of me thinks Nurse should be back to a top end defenseman once 100% healthy
My pessimistic side wonders how long it will be till he is 100% given the length of recovery time and I’m sure would have affected his training this summer
I’m less concerned about his fitness level than getting the thing cleared up properly so it doesn’t last all season and tank yet another playoff for him. If he can’t perform well enough that cap hit leaves a big hole
Agreed, but if it takes missing 15 games to be fully healed, then another 15 – 20 to get fully up to speed, that is all of a sudden a big chunk of the season spent with only 2 top 4 defenseman in the line up. Not ideal and could really affect the bottom line, points in the standings, no matter how good our forward group is
I am very very worried about the second pair.
Nurse is clearly not 100%. We have seen this story a thousand times. Player not 100% entering camp struggles for the first part or all of the season.
Additionally, 2RHD is not exactly a position of strength. Cannot reasonably expect Emberson to anchor the pairing until Nurse is healthy.
Insert Ralph Wiggum “I’m in danger” meme.
McDavid between Podz and Perry tonight and Drai between Skinner and Arvidsson.
I don’t know why McDavid is playing. I know Philp has played every game but put him there – an actual legit spot where he might play games this season.
Of course Kris Kristofferson died on a Sunday. Some things are meant to be.
https://youtu.be/men-059FGL0?si=rb5GX772__GDNTnb
Rhodes scholar. Gold glove boxer. Helicopter pilot. Movie star. And arguably the greatest C&W songwriter ever. What a life.
If Kris had been blessed with the voice of someone like Don Henley, they would have run out of vinyl printing all the albums he would have sold.
Not a word out of place. What a songwriter. I don’t know if I’ve heard a better one.
Cuz he only sold 7.9 million albums.
He was so good at expressing a universal feeling in his songs that speaks to everyone.
“Cause there’s something in a Sunday, makes the body feel alone.”
Incredible.
My late father’s favourite songwriter. Have to credit the old man for passing on some of his good taste.
“And I’d trade all my tomorrows for a single yesterday…”
“Loving her was easier than anything I’ll ever do again.”
Mr. Kristofferson was also a Ranger(Armed Forces).
Remarkable life, remarkable person. Thank goodness we have the vinyl. Music that will never be matched.
If happiness is feeling blue
and drinking in the afternoon
then I suppose I’m happy as a clam,
But if it’s got a thing to do
with smiling and forgetting you,
then I don’t guess that you could say I am.
In my opinion, the greatest run on sentence ever written.
Amazing fellow. We all have our taste, I might prefer to stick a different set of pipes there
My father was a huge Kristofferson fan, so by extension I always have appreciated his genius.
To me though, what impressed me most, was the way he came to the defense of Sinead OConnor when she made an incredibly unpopular and incendiary (and accurate) claim against the Catholic Church.
She instantly became a pariah and it was open season on attacking her publicly. Very famous people were saying very despicable things about her. But Kris consoled her, commended her courage and stood by her amid the backlash.
That’s a real testament to what kind of person he was. RIP.
I guess we won’t be seeing Kemp with Kulak nor Nurse with Emberson.
It will be interesting to have McDavid in the lineup without Hyman and Nuge, if that is indeed the case.
Thanks LT. Awhile back a dear friend of mine dedicated a few years of his life (on and off) filming interviews with survivors of the residential school system for the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. As a Cree Canadian, it was really quite hard on him and I could see it’s affects on him each time he returned from a trip.
A few year’s later he ended up channeling that experience into a pretty powerful short documentary featuring one of the survivors he’d originally met doing that work. I thought I’d share it here in honor of today (also available on Prime). If you have 13-minutes it’s worth a watch:
https://www.nfb.ca/film/holy-angels/
Excellent film. Thank you.
Hoffman released from his PTO.
Great signing, seven years too late.
May I ask how Blumel is on this list?
As of now, he’s 24, played 6 NHL games 3 seasons ago and spent the entirety of the last two season in the AHL.
If he is on the list then can we not put Berezkin and LaChance on the list given their arrows?
Blumel was drafted No. 100 overall, has played in six NHL games and scored 31 goals last season in the AHL. From the spot he was drafted, I believe making the NHL represents success. Having a nice preseason too, although the Stars have a deep team.
As for Berezkin and Lachance, I think I explained it in the original article well enough.
Yamamoto is also 13th in points and 11th in points for forwards in his draft year.
Its was a solid pick – imagine if the Oilers would have chosen Lias Andersson – formerly part of the greatest and deepest prospect pool in league history?
For a while, this was trending to be a very good pick but it seems injuries have taken a toll and his style of play for his size may not have been sustainable for a long career.
Yamo also scored a series-winning goal, in G6 to beat LA in 2023.
His career as an Oiler was only 254 regular season and 34 playoff games, but #56 had moments where he contributed to the Oilers’ ascendency.
Like you say, his injuries kept him from being a draft steal.
What is success in just playing hockey?
First you must make the AAA squads. That is success for so many minor leaguers. Then multiple seasons as you grow up playing 6 days a week. Thousands and thousands of dollars committed in both money and time.
Getting drafted by an NHL team is a huge success that all your hard work is recognized. But even if not drafted, playing in the WHL or OHL is success greater than 99% of all players graduating from minor hockey.
Making 1$ as a professional is success. Or getting yourself through school. Or a stint in Europe as a young person.
Losing your teeth, breaking bones, pulled groins and dislocated shoulders.
Making it all the way to the NHL is achieved by so few. Massive success.
I think this why we all have a soft spot for that player just on the fringe of making it. He just needs to be a little quicker, a little better skater, an extra move, extra ability to read the play. We cheer for these guys.
Yeah, exactly this. I wish they all could make it , which is irrational, but being a fan is kind of irrational anyway. One of the things that keeps me coming back to LT’s blog is the attention he pays to the prospects. Great stories there even though some NHL dreams never pan out
From Condors site, here’s the TC roster so far:
GOALTENDERS (2)
#30 Brett Brochu (AHL)
#32 Connor Ungar (NHL)
DEFENSE (9)
#2 Noel Hoefenmayer (NHL)
#4 Cam Dineen (NHL)
#8 Connor Corcoran (AHL)
#16 Max Wanner (NHL)
#23 Darren Brady (AHL)
#41 Alex Kannok-Leipert (AHL)
#45 Ethan Ritchie (Tryout)
#47 Kyle Mayhew (Tryout)
#58 Connor Carrick (NHL)
FORWARDS (12)
#12 Jayden Grubbe (NHL)
#13 Ethan De Jong (AHL)
#14 Cameron Wright (AHL)
#19 Daniel D’Amato (AHL)
#20 Bryce Kindopp (AHL)
#21 Matt Savoie (NHL)
#22 Matvey Petrov (NHL)
#24 Jasper Weatherby (Tryout)
#27 James Stefan (NHL)
#38 Yanick Turcotte (Tryout)
#42 Alex Swetlikoff (AHL)
#44 Odeen Tufto (Tryout)
SCHEDULE
Head coach Colin Chaulk and the rest of the team’s staff will conduct daily sessions from 10:30 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. this week. Schedule subject to change. Condors365 Members are invited to practice on Wednesday and Thursday, meeting at Mechanics Bank Arena main doors at 10:15 a.m.
Interesting that some of the guys with AHL-class contracts got the invite to Oilers camp & some did not.
Apparently there was a precise number of attendees required/requested/desired/needed for Oilers camp according to various reports & last minute PTO’s.
Something I still find a peculiar explanation when dealing with a group of over 55 players.
I understand the thinking of what constitutes a successful pick. I have never been able to get there. To me a successful pick is someone who establishes a career at whatever role. If you are healthy and can’t stay in the league more than two seasons, kudos for getting to the league, but obviously you aren’t an NHL quality player
If you are a top 10 pick or so, I think you should be producing at a higher level, and have some impact on the game in a more direct sense, to meet the draft pedigree, in other words be a top player of some sort. It’s a quickly descending scale of success after that, staying in the league covers the bet
Sounds reasonable.
I agree that games played, alone, is too vague. A first round pick who plays 200 games on the fourth line or 3rd pairing might be a success for the player from a financial point of view but I don’t think the team that expended the pick would think so & I suspect the player would also be disappointed in how things turned out.
As you say finding a formula that actually describes what we think of as successful is much more complicated.
Last year’s top 8 teams
Puckpedia depth chart for the upcoming season
5v5 Points per line last year
no adjustment for injuries or rookies
Line 1
Avs 300
Oilers 276 (great line not sure they can pass AVS – #2 Projected)
Panthers 246
Canucks 212
Stars 210
Canes 208
Bruins 194
NYR 187
Line 2
NYR 254
Canucks 176
Stars 170
Panthers 168
Oilers 167 (Arvidsson’s total were low and should 20-30 more points – #2 projected)
Bruins 166
Avs 91
Canes 88
Line 3
Canucks 107
Avs 91
Panthers 76
Oilers 75 (Henrique’s points is 68% of this total, concern IMO – #5 projected)
Stars 74
Canes 68
Bruins 67
NYR 46
Line 4
Canucks 63
Stars 59
Oilers 46 (anyone guess on this one -#3 projected)
NYR 46
Canes 41
Bruins 35
Avs 29
Panther 22
Canucks are the best-balanced team
Canes are the worst balanced team
Puckpedia might have the NYR 1st and 2nd line reversed???
The Canucks were the best balanced. They have some serious SH% regression to the meat on the horizon word on the street is
Surely these are points per line in all situations, not just 5v5.
I guess so. But a guess is only a guess.
With the recent documentary on Amazon Prime “The Tragically Hip – No Dress Rehearsal”, I’ll share these links:
https://downiewenjack.ca/our-story/
https://secretpath.ca/#Film
I believe it’s been posted many times here that The Talking Heads were ahead of their time, and I feel Downie was a leader in bringing these issues to the forefront.
I think we know we’ll see the Drai line for the first time.
I am hopeful that we’ll see Nurse/Emberson tonight.
Would love to see Kemp with Kulak but figure it’ll be Brown.
Philp has played every game so maybe a night off but I’d like to see him with Podz and one of Ryan or Perry.
I am concerned about Nurse playing unless 100%. I haven’t seen any reports on him lately. Feels like a problem in the making, hope I’m wrong. They really need a good season from him
The publicly provided info on him was that he wasn’t going to play in any games in the first part of camp and will likely play some near the end.
He participated in all the informal skates before camp and participated fully in all practices and in all drills.
I personally have very little concern unless we see him limited in his play or if he doesn’t paly in 1-2 exhibition games as planned.
Can someone enlighten me? Will Roby Jarventie need to be included on the roster for cap calculations if he’s still unable to play on opening night?
He would be placed on regular IR but he will have a tiny cap hit as it will be pro-rated to the amount of games on an NHL roster last season – he played 7 games.
Unless he is cleared to be reassigned.
Thanks, good to know.
Thanks, I was wondering the same thing.
If he was on a one-way contract or had played 50 or more NHL games last season, his full cap hit would apply.
For those that don’t hit one of those triggers, the cap hit is pro-rated to number of games on the roster for the previous season. I’m not sure if Jarventie was on the roster for more than those 7 games that he played.