I had Travis Dermott No. 29 on my final draft list in 2015; mentioned his puck moving ability and called him “a gem” on draft day. We saw Dermott good last night, amidst some wobble by the Oilers on the defensive side of the puck. He should be signed today, but management sometimes gets stubborn on things. No matter. Based on what we’re viewing, Dermott and Ben Gleason could hit 50 NHL games each this season. The Oilers, defensively, are bringing glee and giggles to NHL rinks across North America right now. We’re about to see just how smart Stan Bowman is when under pressure. His defense is cracking, what is he going to do about it?
Let’s talk
I think the smart play for the Oilers is to run their six best defensemen and avoid the urge to make a big, season defining acquisition on the blue. That’s the deadline move, unless Artem Zub suddenly comes available. The key is actually running the six best defenders, and I do think Dermott is one of them and Gleason isn’t far behind. We’ll see.
If the Oilers start the season with Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse-Emberson and Kulak-Brown, and we see the wrong reads and walkabouts that were on display last night, it won’t be long before Dermott (if he’s signed), Gleason and possibly Phil Kemp are in the rotation. The absence of alternatives clears the mind.
How did we get here? Well, Jeff Jackson and his group hammered free agency with astute signings at all three forward positions. The bet on blue was Philip Broberg, so worrying about defense was something of a distant bell. A top-six of Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse-Broberg and Kulak-Ceci isn’t exactly the 1977 Montreal Canadiens defense, but that would have gotten you to the deadline.
What should Bowman do? In the words of Blossom in the Powerpuff Girls movie, nothing! The die is cast. Bowman has to hope the offense can outscore the defensive wobble and that Stuart Skinner steals some games. Kris Knoblauch needs to run the living hell out of Ekholm-Bouchard and hope Nurse-Emberson works. Knoblauch put himself in good position during the preseason by playing Nurse with Emberson in every possible game, so the coach has a significant track record to review and give him hope for the year to come. I haven’t seen such a brilliant coaching strategy by a young coach since Dallas Eakins took exactly one forever to figure out who the hell he was playing in NHL regular season games a decade ago.
I thought Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse and Dermott played well last night. I won’t quote the numbers because Olivier Rodrigue had a poor night so things are skewed blue for the blue. I will say Nurse-Dermott getting 67 percent of the expected goal share is encouraging. I’d sign Dermott today and name him the No. 7 defenseman.
Is that fair to Josh Brown? No. Brown brings a physical element and limited defensive acumen, so his performance so far this fall (he owns a 40 percent expected goal share) isn’t fab but if you were expecting Nick Lidstrom that’s on you. It’s also true that a player like Brown is better stepping in to a structured defensive group, and the Oilers ain’t it. Further, people are romanticizing Vincent Desharnais’ performance as an Oiler and that doesn’t help. Desharnais owned a 40 percent expected goal share one year ago, same as Brown today.
What should the Oilers do with Brown? Knoblauch should ignore those yelling that the key to the season is protecting the rugged soul of the team. He should eschew any notion of playing men who are not his six best defenders, beginning on opening night and going all season. It’s madness to worship at the alter of moar big when what you really need is faster horses and better reads. No disrespect to Brown, but he would be far better off with a team that played a button down style with forwards who closely resemble Patrik Elias in his prime.
The Oilers, like the French in World War 2, are about to point their cannons in the wrong direction. It happens.
When we talk about the rugged soul of the Oilers, it’s really about protecting Connor McDavid. Two things. First, it’s impossible. Bobby Orr lost a decade of his career to men like Pat Quinn and Bill Barber and the NHL didn’t blink an eye. Scott Stevens impacted Eric Lindros, Paul Kariya and many others with outrageous hits that altered careers.
We are in a more humane period for hockey, and it’s likely McDavid’s generation will lead normal lives after playing careers end. Have you ever seen a veteran NHL player from the 1970’s walk into a room? You can hear him before you can see him! The NHL is a vicious game. It just is. You can’t police the game completely and McDavid is going to be a target this fall, winter and spring. The only way to avoid it is use him only on power plays. Not going to happen.
Second point. McDavid decided long ago the NHL wasn’t going to call the game straight up, so he took the initiative and began cross checking, slashing, hooking, knocking players over, et cetera. Leon Draisaitl is a true bully. It’s rare to see an NHL player exact a price for sins real or imagined so often. When Leon retires from hockey, all outstanding invoices will have been paid in full, and then some. If you’re worried about McDavid and Draisaitl, I get it. You can’t wrap them in bubble and you can’t compromise your roster in the name of the sacred bleeding Jesus heart of the rugged soul of the ‘these assholes are being mean to my boy’ brigade. NO. ONE. IS. LISTENING.
So, Oilers management and coaching have to decide if they want to win the Stanley Cup or play men who are devoted to keeping the sacred heart of the rugged soul of Oilers physical hockey at Curt Brackenbury levels. It’s a simple choice. The Oilers can make the other team bleed.
All it costs is goals.
We have a busy show today, Sports 1440 beginning at noon. We’ll be joined by Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation to talk about the loss in Seattle last night and the defense moving forward. We’ll also talk Tre Ford and his future with the Elks, and discuss the Toronto Blue jays celebrating mediocrity. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I’m chill. Not making any judgment on anyone until the games actually matter. The only thing I know for sure is there’s a lot I don’t know. Preseason was dead to me after Ty Rattie.
I can’t wait! But wait is what I’ll do.
https://x.com/iwantadonair/status/1841853509102403761?s=61
A different side of Connor McDavid, we rarely get to see. #NHLPrime #LetsGoOilers
(click for video)
Today’s post almost perfectly coinciding with the 20 year anniversary of the release of Tom Waits’ Real Gone. Coincidence? I think not.
It’s a Van Morrison reference
Actually, it’s an Elvis Presley reference. On the Sun Sessions album, they start (I think) Milk Cow Blues Boogie and he stops the band and says ‘wait a minute, let’s get real real gone on this one’ I do love Van and Mr. Waits, though.
Haven’t heard anything on Lavoie’s status the last couple of days. Hopefully he’s healthy enough to play tomorrow and can show well enough to earn an opportunity
Having a League minimum signed Dermott, Lavoie, and Philp on the roster over Brown, Perry, and Ryan saves 725k on the cap while quite possibly improving the line up
Another day, another free pass for the VGK.
This opens up a loop hole it’s a copycat league.
https://x.com/friedgehnic/status/1841862028505342117?s=61
NHL/NHLPA have reached an agreement on Robin Lehner/Vegas.
Simplest way to put it is this: Lehner’s contract will not count against the cap, but he will still be paid his salary.
“Unique situation,” as all sides have indicated
https://x.com/knightswatchvgk/status/1841863202130550856?s=61
What people don’t seem to realize is that Vegas could have terminated his contract the second he misses his physical. He was never going to be on their books, and Vegas didn’t have to pay him a dime. But they elected to play nice with the player and the PA
What you don’t seem to realize it that if Vegas had terminated his contract, with prior knowledge of whatever situation is being deemed unique, they would soil their reputation among players.
They are agreeing to pay him, to look out for their future ability to attract players; and for that they should not get a cap break.
When a workplace terminates an employee, often the severance is greater than what the employer actually owes the employee. It’s not because the employer is being nice, it’s because they want to avoid a situation where the employee goes after them for lost wages or something similar.
Anyone thinking Vegas did this out of the kindness of their hearts is fooling themselves.
Wow, that’s crazy. The NHLPA got their wish as their guy still gets paid and VGK has some extra money to spend. I wonder what the other 31 management teams are thinking right now? This seems even more sketchy than the LTIR shenanigans. Boooooo!
Yep, for me it should be LTIR or Player Assistance Program; or if Vegas is as cutthroat as they like to advertise, terminated contract.
Paying him off the books, without cap or contract implications is BS.
Especially if there was a bit of “wink wink nudge nudge” prior to him missing his physical or whatever. Which, being Vegas, there almost certainly was.
2 Mutts saying that the Oilers are in contract talks with Dermott right now. They also say that they believe the coaching staff is high on Brown and can’t see him going to the AHL yet.
There certainly is evidence of that.
Keeping Brown in the lineup allows for management to have more leverage on Dermott and his agent. Sending Brown down does not. Plus, sending Brown down now means one less option if he is claimed (highly unlikely but possible) and Dermott doesn’t sign. Patience is more important to management.
I would literally dare (and frankly encourage) any team to claim him.
I think what is missing is noting that playing a guy like Josh Brown, which seems likely to cost goals, does not actually deter anything – at least not in my opinion.
No way he starts the year on the roster needs to get his reps in the AHL and be ready when needed.
Agreed. Further, I am not as convinced as many that 2RD is a massive hole right now. Emberson was not a lock, and still isn’t a lock, to be able to perform in that spot but he was a reasonable bet. Nothing in exhibition season has changed that and, in fact, to my eye Emberson has been very good in the exhibition season. He gives up so little at 5 on 5. He has great defensive positioning and a very good stick – he can close gaps, move the puck and battle.
Emberson is 60% plus across the board in all metrics this exhibition season including like 64% expected goals. He’s under in actual goals but I don’t believe that to be indicative of his performance.
If anything, to me, he has propagated the possibility that he can play 2RD on this team and succeed.
I think the org has been more than fair to Josh Brown – he has practiced with Kulak every skate and has played two games with him. Aside from the very first game, Brown has been overtly poor in all games.
He has been outplayed by Emberson, Stecher and Dermott.
It wouldn’t be fair to any of those three if Josh Brown was on the opening roster over them.
I don’t think the ruggedness that Brown brings comes even close to being more beneficial than the uptick in actual ability to play hockey, defend and make plays that the other bubble d-men have shown as compared to Brown.
Waive him and assign him – he will make his $1MM to ride the bus and potentially earn a call-up with his play.
On merit, he does not make this team right now.
Brown is big and tough
Poor metrics for years in the NHL
Please, please send him down
Hey OP, you may want to know that the word you’re looking for is promulgated, not propagated.
No offense meant of course, I’m just a word nerd.
We are going to miss Vinny.
Home grown prospect. Developed by the org. Great guy. Great teammate.
After a short hiatus, we have now resumed the annual Oiler tradition of obtaining one of the worst Dmen in the NHL.
Do we really need Willis to point out Brown was one of the worst Dmen in the league the last few years?
Brown turns 31 in January. This is who the player is. Who he always has been. There has been nothing new learned about his game the last few weeks.
The only question that needs to be asked is who are the keen intellects that – not just wanted Brown- but felt *compelled* to want to sign him to a 3 year deal.
Bowman needs to hold some people accountable.
love me some van the man!…heres that tune with added Canadian flavour..ha
https://youtu.be/pRDHApDmTuI?si=-obTyoBgn43NP7ZA
LowTide I think the fact that Brown has gotten so many reps us the fact he’s hasn’t yet made the team
Very true. However, he was signed with a clear role and that means there’s a desire for this player to be on the team somewhere on the staff.
There is an article on ON about Dermott and Coffey’s coaching. I’m going to cross my fingers that Brown is waived as there is low risk of waiver pickup. And trust that both Knob and Coffee, who value puck moving defensemen, will keep/sign Dermott. The other plus is Dermott can play both sides which is valuable as a depth defenseman.
Suddenly playing the offside does not matter. Where was that last year?
I don’t think Lowetide’s comment section would have convinced Oilers management to play Broberg on his offside.
Not making any excuses for Brown, but the goaltender was dreadful last night. A defenseman can only do so much, and the goaltender needs to stop the puck. Olie wasn’t a very good goalie last night. Brown wasn’t a great defender either, he’s clearly being shown up by the likes of Dermott, Stecher and Emberson. I get they want that big tough guy on the third pair, but he has to be a player as well. I’m disappointed in the signing. I believe they need to keep searching for that player.
However, in the meantime they have a trio of defensemen that are capable and up to task ready to fit in with the rest of the D corp. I believe they should have their 7 defensemen in tow. Now that that’s out of the way, there’s one more tune-up to go.
Exactly. The Oilers defense was fine last night. Rodrigue got 60 minutes against an NHL lineup that exposed the gaps in his game.
Brown will undoubtedly get games this season but he’s the new Ryan Murray, or Slater Koekkoek, or Nikita Nikitin. He’ll be relegated to the AHL until he’s needed.
Maybe some other team will see something in him and claim him off waivers.
The Florida Panthers rugged soul beat the Edmonton Oilers superior skill.
You don’t go out and get a rugged player. Its built in. Its built into your roster and culture. Your mindset. Its determination. It is a never give up, never back down attitude. Tit for tat. Take a run at us and all hell breaks loose.
Oilers are a championship team. Couple of holes here and there. Ryan McLeod was a fine player, good for 82 games but had no jam for the playoffs. Oilers seen this and could not move him fast enough.
Florida faced similar problem, so they moved Huberdeau and Weegar for Thachuk. That was a bold move.
Evidence is that each playoffs, the top players cannot compete at 100% because of injury. It has been a difference maker. Add more skill and go back at it – will likely return similar results.
Oilers and Stanley are getting closer. Im all in. But to continue the firepower reference, the Oilers are not pointing their cannons the wrong way, they dont really have any cannons.
.
Your theory does not explain the Panthers winning this year and losing last year with the same roster.
Injuries.
Florida was also deeper last year.
It seems in the early days Brown will be the new whipping boy.
If that’s the case, he might just become that ornery SOB the team needs.
I’m going to trust the coach that brought us a 16 game winning streak, and within 1 win from hoisting the Stanley.
The mere suggestion of Knob and Eakins in the same realm of coaching is absolutely asinine imo. The disrespect is unbelievable, the Oilers are short 1 defender maybe.
See how it plays out, trust the best coach this franchise has had in years, or lose all sense of self composure over Josh Brown lol.
Even great coaches make mistakes and have weaknesses.
It seems bizarre to suggest someone is above critique because of past performance.
Eakins thought he was a innovator. God’s gift to coaching he thought he was smarter than the game with his Swarm tactics. He must of really been able to spin a yarn getting MacTavish to go all in on him. Kris has no ego lets the players play and will do a fine job this year after stepping into a hornets nest with no lifeline last year.
Dylan Holloway may get a shot with Thomas and Neighbours tonight. He was practicing with them yesterday. The Buchnevich at centre experiment is still on. Saad’s wife is expecting and may miss the opening road trip. Bolduc has looked good but zero production. Thomas and Kyrou are like oil and water. So Holloway gets his chance to go Top Gun.
Thanks for the everything Blues update. Just in case we care.
Hope his one arm is up to the task.
Nobody cares.
Work harder.
(which, coincidentally, is also the answer to NO. ONE. IS. LISTENING.)
I mean I am sure the opportunity in St.Louis to be go to guys was attractive to Holloway and Bro.
Holloway’s Achilles heel even while he was here was an inability to regularly score. He is a great possession guy, rugged, defensively responsible and determined in the corners. With all that said, I can’t see him regularly getting more than 20 points. Too many whiffs, double clutches for a guy who is supposed to play with top guys.
I think the Oilers will miss him, but not because he is going to light it up with the Blues.
Sometimes I wonder how DSF became fixated on going out of his way to come in here post any little thing that might make the Oilers look bad. Satisfying only his own broken internal sense of justice trying to exact revenge for some imagined sleight.
I guess the phenomenon isn’t unique.
Taylor Hall was closely followed in this blog for a couple of years after the 1-for-1.
Once an Oiler. Always an Oiler.
Brilliant LT!
I fully appreciate the frustration and sarcasm. 😁
hopefully Coach is ready to do what needs to be done…starting NOW!
I haven’t seen every minute of the pre-season, but what I’ve seen of Brown, I can’t for the life of me see why they signed him. Like, at all! He looks so out of place it’s crazy. He can’t really make this roster can he?
I mentioned this a while back but keeping players late into camp is also a sign of a new coach to the organization. He has no track record with the prospects. And with the turn over at RD, he needs to see all the options that have been presented to him by the GM.
I am not condoning the approach, but I can see how there has been a delay in forging the final roster. Nurse’s injury didn’t help.
It is a perplexing moment for a team on the cusp
LT, so you don’t like Brown today? Got it, me neither.
I hope the Brown signing is a lesson that the current mgt learns, along with the further lesson that filling your 4th line by June is stupid. There was certainly too much concern about the bottom pairing & marginal guys to go out and retain Brown on day one, as well as ensure Perry et al returned to the bottom half of the forwards.
Now, I say this with tongue in cheek, because it really does feel like a year over year organizational failing to worry more about forwards 11-14 and bottom pairing D than the holes which are there year over year (2nd pairing D, quality wings in top 6).
Are you claiming that the Org didn’t address quality wings in top 6 early in the offseason?
once again. for those in the back. Brown is destined for the minors. They signed him to deal that no one will claim. he is a physical call up and will be up and down based on schedule. Dermott at $775 also helps us accumulate cap. Brown at $1 mill was (I hope) a strategic move to add size if needed, but set up to be buried in the minors and get called up when they want without fear of a claim.
Dermott fits the LH?RH option for playing both sides. And he is clearly better. So is Stetcher.
Same with Philip. Solid, big, does a lot right. He cant get claimed. he goes down. Simple asset management.
Moar smarter, not bigger please
If Brown is destined for the minors then why is he getting so many reps with Kulak?
giving him a chance to earn a spot. But man he has not. Gregor has a solid article at ON about Stetcher. Makes me want to root for him even more. Still think the best lineup on D is
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson
ease Emberson in. Let him earn the 2nd RD spot over time. Kulak and him more defensive role. Nurse and Stecther more offensive.
If this is true, why did Josh Brown play last night? Why would the organization sit others who can play for a man definitely headed for the AHL. I think it’s clear Brown could make the team. As I mentioned, his play, at least in terms of results, isn’t wildly different than the man he is replacing.
I just hope they are smarter. As you said, Moar size doesn’t mean better. And no one is a deterrent anymore. He is not Desharnais. That is blinders if that is all they see or hope. this is not a year for hope. this is a year to win. And I pray they are smarter and make a better decision.
If Brown plays in the final tune-up, that will tell the story. We should see the starting lineup in Vancouver.
IMO the starting lineup would be minus Brown, Roderique & Caggiula. Maybe we see Stecher play alongside Kulak & Emberson with Nurse. Dermott will be signed. But what do I know? To me it’s starting to look like forget the accrued cap space, put Kane on LTIR and bring him back for the playoffs when his cap hit won’t count. Trade for the right fit on defense.
Who in the schedule warrants having Brown in the line-up and which team doesn’t?
Re: Brown – My belief on this is some scout or some readings of his analytics had someone jumping up and down, screaming that if you could just get X and Y warts out of his game, or put him in the right system, there was a serious player there. You sign him 3x$1M and just see if he doesn’t look like a $3-4M player in year 2-3 of that deal.
I haven’t watched any preseason, but it sounds like he’s been somewhere around the 9th best defenceman at camp. Maybe whatever he’s supposed to have ain’t really there, or you have to be a genius to see it.
I don’t buy that he’s there just to be a tough guy. It doesn’t seem to be Knoblauch’s style to deploy face-punchers, and I agree with the article that Connor and Leon don’t need a bouncer. Connor has that snarl, and is too quick and smart to catch in open ice. Mess with Leon at your own peril. I’ve always said, woe unto the man who finally makes him angry enough to drop the gloves. I bet he fights like Ali.
I don’t know. Knobber has some old school tendencies. Based on his deployment and line ups in preseason, he likes what Brown brings.
He’s Desharnais’ replacement. There were things about Desharnais’ game that made him attractive to the Oilers. Like wingspan, toughness, a rugged edge. I’m not sure if Brown can replace what Desharnais brought, but that was the idea in signing him for sure.
Yeah, I re-read my post and it wasn’t clear, but what I meant is clearly someone thinks there is something there beyond fisticuffs. Desharnais was a flawed defender, but you could definitely see his value as a defender beyond just size and strength. It seems Brown has yet to show this, but that doesn’t mean he won’t.
The other big caveat is that this is preseason. It’s not like Brown would be the first veteran ever to look awful all through camp, and be perfectly fine game 1.
I am not sure about that either. I would say Des’ size and strength are the primary reasons he made the show.
He was good preventing seam passes on the PK, and I thought he made smart plays with the puck, as long as he had at least a little bit of time, less so under intense pressure. He was good at filtering the puck to the net from the offensive blue line too.
Was Desh tough, did he intimidate others? Not sure about that one. Did he punch faces, did he win many, any? Did he grab anyone and lay a beating on them?
If he’s the Desharnais replacement, this coach sat Desharnais without hesitation in the Stanley cup finals, something Dallas Celery Sticks Eakins will never sniff as a coach.
Worrying about Brown costing the Oilers is a bit far fetched.
Prospectily!
Isn’t it a pity
Isn’t it a shame
No one ever warned the boy
NHL is a vicious game
‘Tis a twain of OHL’ers in tonight’s light of spot.
Will Beau and his Akey shoulders play their first league game in almost a year? He’s back in Barrie but will he get inserted into the lineup straightaway? We wait.
Meanwhile, Wakely missed out on last weekend’s action–mayhaps he makes his season debut ce soir.
Both men are listed since I’ve seen nothing to indicate they shan’t suit up.
Barrie (Akey) @ 5 p.m.
North Bay (Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Hillmond time.