In his draft year, Matt Savoie scored 35-55-90 in 65 games (1.38 pts-60). He was chosen same year same round (but earlier) than Edmonton selection Reid Schaefer (66, 32-26-58 .88). Schaefer is just three months older than Savoie, but has a full AHL season (63, 7-14-21) on his resume. What should we expect, in terms of boxcars, from Matt Savoie as an AHL rookie at 20?
WHL TO AHL PROGRESSION (DRAFT YEAR TO ROOKIE AHL SEASON)
Leon Draisaitl was having an impact in the NHL by Halloween of his rookie pro season, so should be considered an extreme outlier. Tyler Benson had one of the best AHL seasons by a 20-year old in Oilers minor league history, and that was the peak of his career. I know he didn’t make it, but my goodness that was a strong enough season to warrant a recall.
The comparable for Savoie is Yamamoto. I think people have soured on him, injuries have had an impact and that’s a worry for Savoie, too. As an AHL player, Yamamoto was a screaming success. He carried the play, he was a magician with the puck, he tracked down opponents like a rabid dog, and he turned over pucks by the score. Seriously, if Yamamoto had been gifted with an exceptional AHL center, I think he could have delivered a point-per-game.
I’m guessing Savoie will have an exceptional AHL center, as the Condors will have more than one (Lane Pederson, Noah Philp). I suspect he’ll wow fans and be the biggest thing to hit town since Buck Owens. Traditionally, when a young player hits the AHL and scores extremely well, a recall is the next step. The Oilers have been a little wonky with the kids (see Benson, but also Philip Broberg and even Evan Bouchard) and that may continue even though the Ken Holland era is over. Stay tuned, we’ll be tracking this young man closely all winter.
WAIVERS TODAY
I think the Oilers path is clear. Sign Travis Dermott, make sure all the regulars have 10 fingers and toes, then get after it. A strong start is vital to this Oilers team, and they sure as hell earned it (but did not get it) based on the possession totals one year ago. I like this team. This group could win Stanley but will need a Kevin Lowe 2006 deadline.
My picks to win postseason awards are Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard. The heat is on Darnell Nurse and Stuart Skinner. The coolest outcome is Ty Emberson having success on the second pair. The top two lines are stacked, the third unit should suppress enough offence to play at par, and the fourth line is missing a piece (Noah Philp) but I expect he’ll be along shortly.
It’s waiver day so you know I’m in a great mood! We’ll have all the news that’s fit to vocalize at noon, Sports 1440. Our guests will include Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and ESPN. We’ll chat about trade targets on defense and preseason records as a predictive tool for the regular season. Jason Gregor will drop in to talk Oilers, Elks, NFL weekend and MLB playoffs. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: Where does the 2024-25 Oilers opening-night roster rank in team history?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5822487/2024/10/07/oilers-roster-ranking-team-history/
I think Jeff Skinner was a mistake. He’ll be fine as long as the team is fine. An early slump and he”ll quickly be a whipping boy. Same as every where else he played.
Watching him here in Buffalo it was the same thing with three coaches. Doghouse, luckily they kept firing the coach so he was afforded many prime opportunities. Yes, I know he was a good five on five scorer. He won’t be the highest paid or highest profile player here like he was in Buffalo, no floating. Again, he will be fine as long as the team is fine.
Bad move, rather have Broberg.
The Lavoie meltdown is in full effect I see…
I don’t subscribe to this panic. At all. You could sign 10 of him.
What I will mention is that this is exactly why I advocate for trading prospects that don’t show a serious spark early. Always.
The Oilers were in danger of becoming old and slow before this offseason. They’ve lost three of their top recent picks, of which they’ve had very few to begin with.
I wouldn’t say its time to panic but the danger is real.
Lavoie is exaclty the type of player that will randomly score 20 goals on an expansion team given lots of PP time but end up as a -30 and will have a lot of outrage when realistically he was never going to get a top-six opportunity here because he wasn’t going to be better than any other option.
This is what ‘going all in’ looks like. Remember when folks were crying about the team needing to maximize the best years of McDrai? This is it. On the other hand I like watching the “Lowetide Journey”. Watching young players get drafted, develop, hit the NHL and make their dreams come true while I get to see my team win Stanley. But seeing these young players blocked and traded for the NOW is the way of the cap, especially when your team is built around generational talents. We wait. With nails chewed and beer in hand. Until Stanley is raised in triumph.
Ryan and Perry is definitely not what “going all in” looks like. Neither is the mismanagement of the Holloway and Broberg contracts. Getting rid of Ceci was the right move. I am glad that I will never have to see the Nurse-Ceci pairing ever again – except in nightmares. But it’s still one step forward and two steps back. We’ll see what the trade deadline looks like with this cap saving strategy and no first round pick. I am prepared to be underwhelmed. As for raising Stanley, everything has to go perfectly, especially on D and in goal. I don’t think either is championship quality. There is a good chance that McDavid never sees it happen in EDM.
I appreciate your take and your nom de keyboard. Cheers.
“Both Lavoie and Schwindt figure to battle for playing time on Vegas’ fourth line with Keegan Kolesar and Brett Howden. If the Golden Knights want to send either player to the AHL, they’ll both have to go through waivers again.”
https://oilersnation.com/news/golden-knights-claim-raphael-lavoie-off-waivers-from-oilers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
1.Oh come on. Losing Raphael Lavoie is not like losing Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo.
2.Every team overvalues their own prospects. Especially those of us on a blog that specialized in prospects. Lavoie wasn’t even listed in Pronman’s top 10 potential waiver wire pickups.
3.You take chances on waivers, and 98% of the time there’s nothing to worry about. This was mostly just bad luck. Chances were that we were eventually going to end up trading him for a 5th round pick anyways.
4.If we’re so convinced that Lavoie’s 28 AHL goals really meant something, we could have picked up Adam Gaudette on waivers (44 AHL goals last year). Neither player is well-rounded, but Gaudette is a better scorer.
5.This happened because we have forward depth that’s the envy of the league. You can knock Perry’s slow boots all you want, but he’s the kind of guy that’s proven to get you to a Stanley Cup Final. Lots of other teams would love to have him on their 3rd line, and we’ve got him on our 4th. He’s a gamer, especially come playoff time.
Losing Lavoie, Broberg, and Holloway in the same offseason for a few draft picks is stunningly poor asset management. As bad or worse than the Reinhart trade.
Yeah. I guess someone would have given them a 6th round pick for him.
Oilers almost always draft players with a major defect in their game. I am more upset at the fact that they drafted a guy with slow boots. And while McCleod could skate like the wind, he was afraid of contact, which they also knew. On ice intellect is a thing that, in past, has seemed to also elude Oil drafting gurus. I really hope they crap together.
We just gave away Lavoie, Broberg and Holloway for draft picks and nothing and we have Perry, Ryan and Stecher on the opening roster.
AND
Brown and Janmark signed for the next years.
Good for Lavoie, he will be a good fit on that team. Going to a great organization.
Or maybe they have amongst the worst forward depth amongst playoff bubble teams?
What would that, even if true, have anything to do with my comment?
https://x.com/puckpedia/status/1843353246368444660?s=61
Waiver claims:
Aston-Reese from VGK to CBJ
Reimer from BUF to ANA
Patera from BOS to VAN
Schwindt from CGY to VGK
Lavoie from EDM to VGK
Everyone else cleared
I apologize I had him going to the Habs or Sens. The Vegas scouts must of seen him good in the A.H.L to warrant this pick-up. Lavoie finally will get a opportunity as Podkolzin was the last nail in his coffin in Edmonton.
Definitely have to question the asset management. There is being in the”Championship Window” and also proper asset management.
Make a trade.
Nothing to really question … it’s pretty piss poor.
Seravalli’s 32 thoughts are..uhh.. something else:
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/32-bold-predictions-oilers-will-finally-end-canadas-stanley-cup-drought
“14. With a little help from Gaudreau in heaven, the Columbus Blue Jackets will win the 2025 Draft Lottery. It’s the only consolation prize on a brutal year, but hope and help is on the way. Bananas that the Blue Jackets have never won the Lottery.”
Wow just wow.
Knights claim Lavoie.
Good opportunity for the player – lets see if the Knights keep him on their roster for the season or if he’s re-waived.
What is with this management team? Sign an old and further deteriorating Perry and lose Lavoie for nothing.
The organization thinks that Perry gives them a better chance to win this season – maybe they are right, maybe not.
Lets see how long the Knights keep him on their roster.
They must have a crappy roster if they claim two players off waivers.
They probably would have claimed Derek Ryan and Cory Perry if they had the chance.
Just brutal.
Oilers lose a top prospect so they can keep 400 year old Ryan on the opening night roster.
Short term the team is better but the loss of young talent this offseason is going to haunt this team over the next 10 years. It is like Reinhart trade redux.
Lavoie was Hollands pick once Bowman picked up his man Podkolzin that was the end of Lavoie. Lavoie should of been given a honest opportunity but Holland kept blocking his own pick with old Vets that were less maintenance.
This team is frustrating!!
cupboards get MOAR bare.
Who comes up when the old guys break?
a 20 yr old??;
Philp for sure, maybe Savoie, Hamblin, Caggiula, Pederson, maybe Jarventie when ready. It’s not the end of the world.
Yes Philp of course. He is already slated to be on the team from what I see. I am thinking more about wingers. My guess, the call up for W for injuries / the Metamucil isn’t kicking in will be 20 yr old Savoie and if he isn’t working out so well we can have Caggiula back with the team. I would rather have Lavoie right now so Savoie can develop some more and we are not downgrading. It is not the end of the world.
I don’t mind Skinner at 3LW at all. In thinking about the Savoie question, I felt like if he lights fire to the AHL and gets a call-up, Skinner’s spot on the Draisaitl line could be a great spot for him.
Not only that, but Henrique is not your average 3C. He’s more of a 2C who just happens to be playing down because of the depth at the top of the roster. Same for Brown. This guy had a tough year while recovering from injury last season, but was a bonafide top 6 forward up to that point, and showed that during the playoffs.
Wonder why the short rope with Skinner? He is a proven top even strength scorer in this league over many years. Janmark is a proven depth, mostly fourth line player.
Realize Skinner didn’t light the world on fire in exhibition, but his line only had 1 game and a bit together the entire time. A little patience and benefit of the doubt is in order in my opinion
Very strange how the coach is handling his new second line so far
Maybe a little message?
@DNBsports
Knoblauch said this was more about having flexibility and options. He said Skinner could be back with Draisaitl at practice tomorrow.
I think Skinner will mesh better with McDavid if this two have chemistry look out N.H.L
Practice lines today have Janmark with Drai and Arvidsson and Skinner with Henrique and Brown.
I do not like that. I would swap Skinner with Nuge, if anything.
DNBSports
Jeff Skinner in the bottom six to start Oilers practice. Mattias Janmark up.
Light a fire under Skinner’s butt.
This team does not need a 06 Lowe deadline.
Mostly goalie ✅
Complete top 9 ✅
What they need is a right handed Ekholm deadline, which may be over the top depending on how young Emberson’s play holds up.
Maybe just a right handed Kulak.
Ty Emberson has come as advertised in the exhibition season – a very strong defender who closes gaps, has great positioning and a very good stick.
He gave up so very little at evens in exhibition. 65% metrics across the board including an expected goal share over 70%.
Yup, just exhibition but, for me, he has furthered the hope he can be a legit 2RD. I don’t understand those that have his arrows down based on exhibition – he defended so very well.
I think the whole team has been given down arrows and some people are still upset that they didn’t go whale hunting
Lots of folks are still pissed because Holland was a lame duck the minute Wright was canned. I do think this new management will have a better development path for the youngsters. It’s all about the crest for me if they sign McDavid and Bouchard we are in for a ten year run of 10th or better
Spec reporting that the Oilers did not submit any waiver claims yesterday. No surprise at all (at least to me) that no external add is coming today.
I think this will lock in the Dermott signing at some point. I presume in the next couple of hours to days but perhaps they want until they actually want to play him – keep him off the roster until then – would kind of be a dick move to the player so I doubt that.
So, if they sign Dermott to league minimum that leaves them with just over a million in cap space. How much does that accrue daily?
I think it would be closer to $1.2MM and, if there were no changes through the season, that would give them close to $5.5MM at the deadline (rough math).
Of course, no changes is not feasible.
You go through the league and there are so few established RHD potentially available. The list is pretty damn short:
Pionk (pending UFA but WPG obviously tries to resign)
Andersson (CGY unlikely to deal with us)
Ristolainen (checks a lot of boxes but has he turned a corner?)
That’s the list if we are talking about being reasonably available. Everyone else is unavailable or 3rd pair. Sure Zub would be nice but why would OTT trade him? Build JJ a statue if he can pull that off.
This is why Emberson is such a big deal. If he can hang with Nurse on the 2nd pair it is absolutely massive. Could be a franchise altering trade if it works out. Wouldn’t mind another big Bobby Clobber on the 3rd pair either but maybe Brown can fill that role (yeah I know unlikely).
I would suggest the Oilers will continue to search for less established RHD’s along the lines of Ty Emberson. They tend to be less expensive. And there’s more of them around the league.
Sure but how many more 3/4 RHD do we need? We already have Stecher, Dermott, Brown, Kemp. Draft and develop is the way to go. Still unhappy we dealt Kesselring for peanuts.
Huge opportunity for Emberson and the team if he can fill that 2RD slot beside Nurse. Main storyline of the early season.
Emberson has looked good. He can either fill in beside Nurse or Kulak depending on if they need to further upgrade 2RD. So, it remains to be seen if they need a 2RD, or 3RD. Stecher & Dermott (if signed) are good insurance for the time being. They seem to be in an alright position, and they have a whole season to sort things out.
There are unexpected defencemen who become available every year. No need to start narrowing things down right now.
You can also always go out and make a hockey trade if that’s necessary.
Looking out too far ahead.
Yeah exactly this. Who had Ekholm as an available trade target when we got him?
Utah has an abundance of RHD. Durzi would be really nice. They also have two guys named Kesselring and Marino.
Will Borgen is an option.
Risto is not a 2RHD anymore. Please look at his toi. Huge red flag. Plus a bad contract.
— With all due respect to Brown v Stetcher or which guy is going to be the 14th F or of so and so should have earned a spot on the roster there are a few things that exponentially more important to the results this year that barely have been discussed:
— Not in any order but this is the stuff that matters that no one asks or surmises:
1) Is this team better prepared than the one that got blown out 8-1 and clearly had just awful lines of communication from day 1 and woefully ill equipped and poor execution
2) What have the players and coaching learned? What specifically has been different about this pre-season that might better prepare them for next season? Is third coach a charm?
3) Will McDavid score more than 2 goals in the first 11 games. What has he learned and doing different to be more effective out of the gate (or injured etc)
4) How committed is the team to McDrai on seperate lines. No ifs and or buts this time
5) what has Skinner learned or done differently so that he isn’t the worst goalie in the league for the 1st 2 months with a .870 sv%
6) How is Nurse going to do with an unestablished partner and a sub-optimal preparation
7) How are they planning on handling the G: or will they just ride Skinner hard because.
— A bunch more but I think to focus ought to shed some light on opinions and thoughts on these things that matter way more.
— An ode to the Honeymoon Suite reference yesterday :
Dear oil :
why must I always say it again.
It’s a new season now,
I got a new same team now.
And she’s a lot like the last year. A lot like you. just like you.
People talk about what people want to talk about. I do think you’ve brought up great points, but the newest news always rules the day. IF McDavid scores two goals in his first 11 games this fall, it’ll be front and center.
— True. I’m just wondering what people think about some of these other things before the season starts that have far greater ramifications for this team?
— Is it just random that our teams don’t show up ready, and coaches have to get fired?
— The media could ask some of these questions : “coach, your the third one in The last 3 years. What specifically have you and management done to look back in the last three years to figure out why the team isn’t prepared? What to the vets say? How is your approach different now that you had an off season?”
— People talk about what they want to : but some really hard questions haven’t been talked about IMO.
— I will let myself out now, with more can-con. Some of these topics are “Situation Critical”
— seriously I’m leaving. “Don’t forget me when I’m gone”.
Very true. You should start a blog. I bet it would be interesting.
— I’ll stay in my lane! I get the hint.
— I’m a strange animal. That’s what I know
I wasn’t hinting. I meant it. I was sincere. I am not in any way offended by what you said. Your posts today are worth discussion. I’m sorry if you thought I was being insincere, it was not my intent.
Understanding the ebb and flow of the competition is crucial in estimating the results of the good guys.
The ebb in the West and in particular the Pacific has been real and spectacular the last two seasons. The Canucks are ahead of where projections had them but L.A. Vegas and especially Calgary are markedly worse.
Head into the Central and mediocrity reigns supreme. Dallas is the cream of the crop. After that though. Nashville has revamped its approach, but only with guys on the wrong side of the age curve. The Jets are aging out, keep an eye on Schieffle’s decline this year. Colorado is the most top heavy team in the league. Utah and Minnesota have pieces but that’s it.
The West is in a pretty hard ebb right now. A conference of Bubble teams.
Also hard to make a case that anyone in the East got that much better defensively save Washington and the Devils.
Conversations around the 3rd and 4th lines should have this context close at hand. The Oilers don’t play last years Florida team in the SCF every night. For roughly 60% of their games they’ll be playing Western teams, 85% of which are worse than last year especially along their forward depth rankings.
Henrique has a knack for scoring, high shooting % over his whole career. I think its reasonable to suggest positive regression for the shooting % of his line-mates this year too. Or maybe the defense helps them out with a goal or five?
The bottom six will also get a 25 goal scorer back at some point in the last 3rd of the season.
Emberson is the wild card and I will admit to coming around. Big risk, but I like it.
Folks are underselling Skinner and Arviddson. You can tack on >150 more shots from the top six this year to last. I betcha the zone time element is going to swing hard + for that 2nd line too. Less defending overall.
The Oilers are easily the best team in the NHL this year.
Matt Savoie has been wonderful in the 2 exhibition games – a standout in a lineup of at least half ECHL players.
He’s looked good with Cam Wright and I wonder if they play together during the regular season. I would think Hamblin or Pederson will be the center.
They may even want to play Savoie with Philp. Would make sense to me. They could develop some chemistry together in Bakersfield. Then they could form a line with Kane, if he returns in time for the playoffs. But who knows?
Because it sounds like Philp might be in the Bake for a while, since they want to take advantage of all that cap space and accrue as much as possible.
My expectations for Savoie are for him to be on the Oilers’ roster by the playoffs. That means success (>0.8 pts/gm) in a short to mid-length stint in Bakersfield.
Skinner McDavid Hyman
Nuge Draisaitl Arvidsson
Kane* Henrique Savoie
Janmark Philp/Acq. Brown
That is a stacked forward group. Need to see who Philp gets along on the PK in both the AHL and NHL. Philp should be getting #1 PK duties with the Condors.
Podkolzin might fit in well in the playoffs too. I could see a winger combo with Kane & Podz. I still think Savoie is going to need to get stronger.
This is an amazing forward group. You could swap Acq. with Savoie if he doesn’t develop as per your expectations.
If you are right that Savoie, Philp and Kane are all on the roster come playoff time, we may just need to get a decent 2RD at the deadline and then Bob’s your uncle.
I think this is exactly what happens but there is a 5% chance they are waiting to see if anybody else comes available through the waiver wire before putting ink to paper.
I was expecting them to sign Dermott over the weekend so I find it a little bit strange that nothing has been announced just yet.
I’ll probably post this and see that the announcement was made while I was typing. 🥸
Instead of signing Dermott, wouldn’t it be better to keep paying him on a PTO, keep him with the team, accrue cap space, and then when he is needed in 2-4 weeks, sign him then?
That might work if he doesn’t get offered an NHL contract from someone else or even a solid European offer. For Dermott it’s like musical chairs and he might not want to wait to see if there are enough chairs when the music stops.
PTO’s are peanuts compared to even a league minimum contract. Even waiting just 2 weeks, Dermott is giving up close to $60,000 in gross salary. And if the Oilers try and pay him the full amount from the start of the contract 2 weeks in, it would gross up the cap hit.
Is that a little hyperbole?
That bar would mean the equivalent of a #1 goalie (Roloson), top 6 forward (Samsonov) 3rd pair D (Tarnstrom), and arguably a top 4 D (Spacek), though he was slightly ahead of the deadline.
I agree one strong deadline add will be needed, but Lowe 2006 would involve 2-3 adds to the core 12 spots.
Point taken on hyperbole but I’d take a Lowe 06 deadline 10 times outta 10. Can never be too good. I think the equivalent would be an Andersson Weegar-esque trade where the impossible suddenly becomes possible.
Sure, more is better, but deadline additions aren’t free either.
I was thinking a Holland 2023 deadline might be more the hope.
The D wouldn’t need to be at Ekholm levels, but adding the difference to Bjugstad would give you quite a nice forward.
Beat me to it. They need a top 4 RHD and some 4th line muscle with a bit of skill (Kostin). Needs may change over the next few months but 2RD is the only critical need for now.
This team is closer than the team in 2006. This team already has their goalie and their top six is exceptional. They sure could use today’s versions of Tarnstrom & Spacek though.
Bakersfield is an interesting town. In many ways, similar to a number of oil towns in Alberta. But hot as hell. One of my sons lived in Santa Barbara for awhile and I would go visit. We would drive across the pass and the difference in weather is astonishing. 20C to 40C in 10 miles! Some absolutely incredible dive bars/classic saloons, really nice people. And of course, Buck Owens! My Heart Skips a Beat! And the immortal Dwight Yoakam! 1000 Miles From Nowhere!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu3ypuKq8WE
And how about both Buck and Dwight in “Streets of Bakersfield”
My dream.
I might have misunderstood your response but just in case; on Dwight’s single/album song “Streets…” Buck is singing with him.
I spent many, many weeks in and around Bakersfield from 2000 – 2014 (oil patch). You are right about the people. The issue is pollution – most polluted city in the USA wrt air quality. A very strange place to put a group of professional athletes. When you fly in all you see is a brown layer of yuck until you get through it. The place to live is Tehachapi which is about a 1/2 drive up into the mountains, sits at 3900′ and is above the smog clouds.
Did Dwight do his own stunts!
My friend – ‘interesting’ may be too polite a term for Bakersfield. My theory is that the Oilers put their AHL team there to increase the incentive for players to work their butts off to make it to the NHL.
That said, the people were definitely nice as you mentioned. They are especially nice for those of us who have lived/worked in the Big Apple and are comparing them to New Yorkers. 🙂
I spent a few days there in January watching a couple Condors games. I’m not a country music fan but I did pop my head into the Buck Owens museum.
It’s not that bad! New Yorkers are better now than the past! I felt the folks of Bakersfield are pretty nice!
I’m a classic rock guy but equate country girls with catholic girls! Lots of fun but do not get on their bad side!