Northern Lights dancing at Turtle Lake, SK. Photo by Todd Kirkpatrick
When I was a kid growing up 17 miles north of Maidstone (probably 80 clicks from Turtle Lake) I would stand and watch in wonder as the Northern Lights moved across the sky. My friend Bruce McCurdy, a guest tomorrow on the Lowdown, told me many years later that mid-70’s was an especially electric for the lights in that part of the world and my memory and imagination concur. What a lovely moment caught by Mr. Kirkpatrick, and I thank him for sharing.
THE OILERS USE THE CAP SMARTLY
Oilers management made several strong moves ahead of the official start of the season. Now, if Evander Kane goes to LTIR, the organization has optimized its impact. I’m not certain it will be used, but the groundwork has been laid in case of a setback in Kane’s recovery. I’d place this in a ‘set it and forget it’ on the shelf that is the 2024-25 season. A nothing burger until it’s a heart attack on a plate burger.
I think we know the actual opening night roster, and Travis Dermott’s signing should come in the hours before Game 1.
The nature of observing the Oilers all these years, and the Chiarelli vibe I get from Stan Bowman, has at least a few nerve endings fretting over a trade for Cam Fowler in the hours to come. Silly me.
I’m pleased the club signed Cameron Wright. In January 2024 I wrote “The Condors have several AHL contracts worth discussing as potential NHL signings during the next several months. Chief among them is 25-year-old winger Cameron Wright. In 18 AHL games this season, he has scored six times and has 11 points. He’s physical, wins battles and owns an even-strength goal share (10-8, 55 percent) that leads the way among AHL-only contracts.”
In the January 2024 FARM WORKERS article here at Lowetide, I wrote “This might be the most interesting group. College players on the Condors roster (among prospects) are Savoie, Carl Berglund, Ethan de Jong and Cameron Wright. Why is this group interesting? Cameron Wright. He leads Condors players in even-strength goals, he is one of the reasons the prospect wingers can’t get prime time, and he is noticeable in every game. He is 25. I’d sign him, because he is a bull. I also like de Jong, who plays a more subtle game but has been successful as a rookie pro. On defense, Phil Kemp remains a quality player in the AHL, his outscoring numbers are quality again this year. I don’t know if he’ll make the NHL, another college man (Vincent Desharnais) ate his lunch it seems. Still, good to see Kemp playing well enough for recall consideration.”
Wright may get at-bats ticketed for Raphael Lavoie in the season to come. A quick mention of Lavoie seems appropriate. I hope he does well in Vegas, the quick release is going to find a hockey home where he will grow into legend. I just don’t know if it’s Vegas, or the even the NHL. I do know he was not a fit for the Oilers roster, and the club has been bleeding young talent all summer. I also know this isn’t terribly unusual for a new management team. I well remember the quick exit of Teemu Hartikainen when new management took over. Hartikainen had the look of an NHL contributor, as does Lavoie. I cheer for all of them, no matter the laundry, as that is my way.
Yesterday’s flurry of transactions probably amounts to little in the grand scheme of things. I think Oilers fans can say the management group is making sound decisions and pre-planning for all manner of possibilities on the long road to glory.
A good time is certain today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 beginning at noon. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join me to talk about roster shuffling and what it could mean. We’ll also chat MLB playoffs, NFL season finally coming into view and the NBA ratcheting up for another campaign. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Vegas are fools. If they held onto Lavoie a bit longer they could have made a few Lavoie jersey sales from some Lowetidians. Do they just hate making money?
— Re : Northern Lights. Growing up in YK: the northern lights were a thing of beauty (way better than Saskatchewan I am told : haha!)
— Anyway my best friend up there, his Dad was Inuit, his Mom whitebread Canadian. His Dad told us that the Inuit believe that in the strongest Northern Lights one can not only see them but also hear them.
— He tells us this as we are driving along the ice road on Great Slave Lake to the community of Dettah in the dark, one night when it’s a spectacular display. He pulls off the road, kills the lights and we go outside. The Northern lights magical.
— Them he whispers to us two impressed 11 year olds: “shhh. Can you hear that”?
— “what the northern lights?!” We exclaim.
— Blair’s dad laughs and says “No it’s a snowmobile in the distance” and he laughed as hard as I had heard a grown up laugh before.
— Only now as a Dad do i appreciate that moment. Blair and I still talk about that “Northern Lights snowmobile”.
I grew up in far NE Alberta where auroras were common in the winter and can attest they sometimes were audible.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/jan/05/noises-of-the-northern-lights-weatherwatch
Interesting stuff – thanks for sharing.
My experiences in an outdoor cedar hot tub watching both Saturday night games……… if its -49 ish cold, and the lights are strong, I could absolutely hear them crackle…in Saskatoon !!
One subject I haven’t seen much talk about is the need to sign Emberson before he becomes a Group VI free agent.
In order to ensure that he does not qualify as a Group VI UFA Emberson must play a minimum of 50 games this season. Should he remain healthy that is unlikely to be an issue but if injury strikes it could end the Oilers control over his contract.
The other issue is cost. Does it make sense to sign him before proving that he can handle 2RD and try and get a lower cap hit now in return for some security or do they wait to be sure and risk driving up the ask?
Anybody here who has seen enough through TC to offer an opinion? I only got to see bits and pieces so I am looking for input. Thanks.
I can’t believe the Golden Knights would waive a future stud in Lavoie.
Maybe he isn’t a future stud.
Sarcasm.
It appears a major reset of goaltender salaries could be in the works.
First Saros signs for $7.5 million in Nashville.
Swayman gets $8.25 million in Boston.
And now Shesterkin has rejected an 8x$11million extension in New York.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/report-shesterkin-rejected-eight-year-88m-deal-from-rangers/
Skinner?
Send Shesterkin back to Russia.
He wants $12.5M.
He might get $12 million.
The Rangers have very few other options.
Skinner would need to win a Cup and backstop Team Canada to a first place win in the 4 Nations to build the kind of cache needed to get a similar deal to Swayman. I think most people still project him to be an average rather than elite starting goalie.
If he does it, then he’ll be worth every penny.
Swayman has done neither of those things.
He and Skinner are the same age and their stats are not that far apart.
Lavoie is on waivers today.
Oilers will for sure claim. They don’t not have a ROFR, same order as the other day.
If Oilers are the only claim, he can be assigned to Bako.
This is reasonably likely. All the teams ahead of Vegas already passed on him and the teams after Vegas were the top of the league from last year and unlikely to have a spot for Lavoie.
Bowman is owed apologies!
You called it OP!
So Vegas, who many around here hold in much higher esteem than our own management group, value Lavoie less than
Cole Schwindt?
Yesterday everyone around here seemed certain that Lavoie was about to become an NHL all-star with Vegas.
Not quite everyone.
The old “people are quicker to complain than to compliment” adage definitely gets a workout around here some days though.
As I said yesterday … his offence has been pretty pedestrian given his size and shot. There was a lot of hyperbole about him “ripping the cover off the ball.” 43 goals in 50 games … that’s what ripping the cover off the ball looks like. I’d rather have Fagamo than Lavoie, and Vegas would rather have Schwindt.
And stop it with “he didn’t get to play with skill” argument … enough with the entitlement. Zach Hyman broke into the league as a 4th liner and forced the issue by making every line he played on better.
Lavoie doesn’t play with the kind of pace and physicality needed to be an NHL player. He’s 24 now and hasn’t figured it out. I don’t see him having a future in the NHL.
Pretty much this.
That didn’t take long.
Can someone please explain what’s going on here? if the Oilers claim him, he can be sent down? so what’s Vegas thinking? makes no sense to me.
As I mentioned in the post, if the Oilers are the only claiming team then, yes, he can go to the AHL. That is likely as all the teams ahead of Vegas in the claim order already passed once and the team behind him were high standings teams last season and likely do not have room for Lavoie.
Vegas had two successful claims yesterday and don’t have room (or desire) to keep both on their roster, hence the waive today.
Lavoie will be back in the Bake where he belongs.
I have never seen so many nights featuring a dancing aurora borealis as I have seen these past few months…
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
In Nobleton this afternoon to see Haoxi Wang, a 6-foot-6 D born in Beijing who recently committed to BU and is generating 2024 draft buzz with NHL scouts for his play in the OJHL to start the year (10 points in 10 games with the new King Rebellion).
https://x.com/scottcwheeler/status/1843709931582886038?s=61
This is interesting stuff. Thanks, oh great one.
No video on YouTube…but I like the pic on Elite Prospects
More info here.
http://terrierhockey.blogspot.com/2023/09/chn-top-ranked-terriers-defenseman-for.html
(you need to scroll down)
Could have misread but there seemed to be something on the wire saying Jet’s Hollybuck taking a leave for personal reasons.
Short term it seems.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/jets-connor-hellebuyck-misses-practice-should-rejoin-team-before-opener/
Per Rishaug, Skinner back in the top 6 today at practice.
Just guessing but I’m thinking a gentle nudge that practices on a contender are maybe taken more seriously than he is used to.
No Passengers.
Rob Brown predicted the Oilers will have two 50 goal scorers (didn’t say which two) and now Bob puts out his predictions and that includes zero 50 goal scorers (McDavid: 46, Drai: 40, Hyman: 37) – notable with Bouch at 22.
Bob does have Janmark at 10 goals and Brown at 12 which would be a massive increase over last season.
With all the preseason worry over the other Brown, I briefly assumed that prediction was about him. “Well that’s an easy under..” arrived in my brain shortly before “Oh, I’m an idiot.”
The complete list with attribution.
Stauffer @EdmontonOilers Projections:
McDavid: 46-84-130
Draisaitl: 40-68-108
Bouchard: 22-71-93
RNH: 31-47-78
Hyman: 37-36-73
Arvidsson: 23-27-50
Skinner: 27-21-48
Ekholm: 11-29-40
Nurse: 10-27-37
Henrique: 16-17-33
Brown: 12-13-25
Janmark: 10-11-21
Podkolzin: 10-7-17
https://x.com/bob_stauffer/status/1843680891597734140?s=61
HA! Nuge will be lucky to get to 49pts.
Perry & Ryan not mentioned.
About right on Janmark and Brown but too low on the A’s. Last year was outliers to the bad. They developed some chemistry and Henrique has a nice goal touch. Defense will also help out this duo.
Zilch from Perry? I’d put at least 8 from him. Closer to 10.
With the firepower they have and the state of the competition we’ll probably see five or six career years from our gents points wise.
He’s too low on goals for McDavid, Drai, Skinner and Hyman. Moar Goals across the board.
48 points is hilariously low with Skinner. Closer to 70.
McD, Drai, Bouch, Hyman, Ekholm, Nurse and Arvidsson are all likely to hit career highs. Emberson too but you know. Skinner will be in tight but needs some PP reps to get there.
Any updates yet on what Holloway and Broberg had for a pregame meal?
We’d have to ask Ken Holland, pretty sure he’s their agent now.
Brad has Holloway Ken has his signature pick Broberg.
Pretty sure godot will update us
I wonder why McLeod gets no love from the peanut gallery?
You nailed it!
I’m not sure he ever plays an NHL game. Then again, I said the same thing about Vinny Deharnais.
Perry is going to have to contribute. With the way they dealt with Brown, it’s obvious they don’t want any passengers. I could see them waiving Perry and calling up Cameron Wright.
Cameron Wright earned a contract but I would suggest there is ZERO chance he plays in the NHL this season – that would be the case even if he was at league min let alone the $952K cap hit he’d come with.
It was a pure cap structuring move – he’d be behind Philp, Lavoie, Hamblin, Pederson, Caggiula, Grubbe and Jarventie (when healthy).
He’s probably ahead of Petrov!
If not Wright, then someone else. The message is “NO PASSENGERS”.
Any idea when the last player that played in the E.C.H.L played meaningful games on our Big club?
So management has set up to maximize LTIR space if they ever want to use it.
Presuming Kane is put on LTIR today as expected, the Oilers will be able to exceed the $88MM cap limit by $5.125MM less the $53 in cap space – while Kane remains on LTIR.
To be clear, if the Oilers are using the LTIR reserves and are going over the cap, they would have to fit in the entire AAV being acquired – not only the portion of is left in the season – a $5MM AAV at the deadline would require the full $5MM.
With that said, while the Oilers are under the $88MM cap, they will indeed accrue cap space and be able to acquire players with relation to how much of their cap hit is left in the season.
The Oilers will likely be around $1MM – $1.1MM under the cap to start and, if no roster changes were made all season, they’d be able to acquire apx $5MM of AAV at the deadline.
Of course, there is zero chance the roster won’t change, there will be injuries that force call ups and reduce the unused cap space. Chances are, if they never go in to LTIR they will have quite a bit less than $5MM at the deadline – maybe $2MM, maybe $3MM – impossible to know.
The amount of accrued cap space will certainly be less than the amount they can go over the cap in LTIR but, of course, using that space is contingent on Kane not being activated during the regular season – and we are far from knowing that.
There is the possibility of using that accrued cap space just before the deadline, be it $1MM or $3MM or whatever and then, AFTER that acquisition is made, using the $5.1MM they can go over the cap in a second acquisition – of course, contingent on knowing they won’t be activating Kane, if they get there.
wouldn’t it make sense to go with only 6 Dman for as long as possible as well? That would double what is accrued until the inevitable injury comes along. last season didn’t we only lose something like 3 games to injury on defence?
Makes sense for cap accrual but I don’t think it makes practical sense.
I mean, they need to have at least one extra player or they run the real risk of playing short if an injury, illness, personal matter, etc. comes up day of.
Jason Strudwick said the other day that he was a healthy scratch over 200 times and only once did he play due to an emergency illness…seems to me its worth the cap space if once or twice a season they play with one player less while waiting for a call up…how many times have we seen a 12th forward only play 6-7 minutes anyway?
Starting a game with 11 forwards is fine. Starting a game with 5 defencemen is not. I’d do without the extra forward and carry 7 D. In a pinch, you could play Dermott up front on the wing. You couldn’t drop a winger back to Defence.
thats what they are doing..
I heard Struddy say that and I am still of the opinion they are going to carry 7 d-men.
Playing short a forward and short a d-man are not equatable.
And if they lose the dman to waivers?
A little more on Skinner:
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1807911902674108920?lang=en
How often do you see a player in the 96th percentile for EV offence and 0th percentile for EV defence?
I’m not judging, I’m saying this is going to be fun as hell to watch. This is like that moment in It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, where the Gang actually hatches a scheme that has a reasonable chance of success (private garbage pick up during a garbage strike). Frank says to the Gang, no wildcard shit. Later in the episode, after the Gang has had some success with their latest scheme, Charlie, in the back of a moving van filled with garbage bags, randomly yells out “Wildcard bitches!” and jumps out from the back with the garbage bags.
Jeff Skinner is our Charlie. He is the wild card.
I’m here for it. This is so stupid it just may work!
He needs to be the Charlie in “Charlie Work” episode.
Does he need to play some sweet D(ee)?
“Charlie work” is my favourite episode. Classic
Mine is the “CharDee MacDennis” episode.
I can’t narrow it down to one, my top picks by quick memory would be
The gang turns black
Dennis and Dee go to the welfare store
The gang gets analyzed
The nightman cometh
Mac and Dennis move to the suburbs
He’s in a limo, with a date and a driver, but he might have swallowed too many blood pills, the outcome might get messy.
NHL Injuries
Name: Jeff Skinner
POS: LW
Status: Day-To-Day
Comment: Touch of the consumption.
That 0% on defense is pretty much where Kane lives too
As a coach, I can work immediately and effectively with two types of players (the rest are rewarding as well but take more work and figuring out). The smart, complete player (for obvious reasons), and guys like Jeff Skinner. It is straightforward. He knows what he does. You can tell everyone else what he does.
“Everyone – this is Jeff…his job is to be right over here and if you get him the puck he will put it in that net. GET JEFF THE PUCK. HERE.”
Some coaches overcomplicate and “wish” for players to become things they aren’t. I hope Knoblauch is not that type.
The Flames didn’t want Brett Hull…I mean, come on…
Oilers Jeff Skinner 🤝 Penguins Phil Kessel
The Oilers’ other Skinner balances this out by contributing the lowest P/60, but is very useful at the other end of the rink.
it seems to me his elite finishing skills would match better with Connor and Nuge’s play making skills would match better with Leon’s shooting ability.. switch Skinner with Nuge to optimize that top 6 imo
I see this happening in short order.
Not sure if it has been talked about, but I believe Jeff Skinner was one of the first players to break into the NHL with truly exceptional edge work. Which, of course, is now the standard and has been exceeded by the McDavids and Kaprizovs of the world.
At Skinner’s time, it was unusual for a player to have a background in figure skating. He translated that to the NHL, which was even rarer/stranger. When he broke in, Gary Roberts was still convincing players not to bench press and focus on exercises that would increase explosiveness on the ice. We’ve come a long way.
Back to Skinner. I’ve heard/seen some criticisms of his skating, which seem to focus more on straight away speed. But a deceptive skater can be “faster” than a fast one. Elite edge work can go a long way, and is a skill that I would suspect fades less than speed does with age. I love McLeod and loved watching him skate, but you could kind of tell where he was going to go.
Anyways, I am looking forward to seeing Skinner’s skating (and finishing) for myself tomorrow evening.
I don’t know figure skaters were teaching hockey players power skating classes when I was kid playing.
And I’m an old, old, old bastard.
The glory Oilers had a lady teaching them figure skating, for edgework
I took power skating when I was in mites…it was just another way to get on the ice, is what I thought at the time. So wrong…I was already a good skater, but I became a really really good skater by learning some basic figure skating…did it for 2 years, the improvement was huge. It didn’t help my hands or my brain though, lol…you can’t fix “no toolkit”…:)
When you watch his hilights its a lot of goals where he’s found space in tight whereas a guy his size would normally struggle to get to the net. His skating is exceptional.
Puckpedia expecting Dermott to be signed tomorrow. Players cannot be sent down today (only call-ups are permitted). They can send players down tomorrow and make room for Dermott.
Puckpedia expert is to be a 2-way deal which really means nothing for our purposes – he’s still need waivers to go down.
I kind of expect to see Philp too.
Ever forward, I say. I am looking forward to the season opener. I think Winnipeg is a good team to start with. They are a bubble playoff team (imo) with good goaltending and they play with pace. The Oilers will need to be on their toes to get a win.
One more day of practice to prepare for that, along with any of the final roster tweaks the Lavoie loss causes.
I’m ready for the hockey to begin.
The organization bleeds youth
We lost the 2020 10th, gained the 2019 10th.
We traded 25 yo McLeod for 20 yo Savoie.
Lost 23 yo broberg, gained 24 yo embersen
Lost 24 yo lavoie to waivers (a shame) and gain 26 yo philp.
Lost Desharnais, 28yo (loved that guy, bit many did not) and ceci 30 yo gained stecher/Brown 30yo each.
Of all those transactions we gained overall 1 year in age.
I am all for discussing the bleeding of speed and talent, but not sure about the bleeding of youth narrative. Or at least not this off season, with this current new regime.
Forgot foegle (28) for arvidsson (31)/ skinner 30. Thats 3 more years lets say for a total of +4
For me, it’s the poor asset management. If you are going to let high picks whither on the vine trade the players earlier or trade the picks.
Losing two first rounders and a second round pick that the team invested years of development time into for basically nothing is brutal. Better to trade the players/picks while the team still has leverage.
First, i just want to say i try to seperate regimes in terms of how they handle assets. This regime already looks a bit different than the last.
Its true that we lost all those 3 players for nothing. Which sucks.
But, when were we ever in a position to trade these players? Our intent was to sign them, then the offer sheet comes. Theres no trading them after that. And Lavoie, i mean i wanted him on the roster, because i dont beleice in Perry. But not sure anyone is trading for him either. Not near the waiver wire. So what does this regime have as options? The only option i see is keep lavoie in the line up.
(I mean we can discuss holland more, but man it feels like we’ve done that already)
Also trading the picks? That certainly isn’t the solution.
If you consistently give away prospects, then trading picks is the solution. Wilson built great teams in San Jose by trading tons of picks. Same with Vegas. There are many ways to acquire talent.
I don’t believe there’s a reasonable argument that allows the loss of Broberg and Holloway to be anything close to normal business for a professional sports franchise. It was a sports version of getting caught with your pants down.
Oilers management owns it. All of them. No cover anywhere and the sun beats down forever. Not a cloud in the sky.
Certainly offer sheets are not normal business practice in the NHL. And St. Louis played it beautifully by the way.
My original question is this: are jackson and bowman bleeding youth? I dont think so. Talent and skill and speed. Thats the discussion.
Well Bowman has been on the job for 11 minutes. Jackson, like every manager I’ve ever tracked, undervalues what is inherited.
That said, the question for me is “does this team represent an improvement” and I think we have to see.
I like the cap management so far, Emberson looks like he can contribute and I really like the forwards.
If winning the Stanley coincides with burning down the mission that includes the team’s youth? I mean, I don’t think it’s wise but this team needs to win a Stanley Cup so if someone wants Matt Savoie at the deadline I don’t think they should hesitate to make a deal that helps.
Does Jackson undervalue what he’s inherited?
He’s brought in all sorts of help behind the scenes, analytics and development.
They’ve resigned Draisaitl to the largest contract ever.
They brought back a whole bunch of veterans no one thought they could afford, and new ones no one thought was possible to help the core win.
They didn’t play ball with Broberg who by all accounts wanted out for years.
They didn’t overpay players that didn’t deserve to break the teams cap.
They lost a young fringe fella on waivers.
All they did was sign a bunch of value deals and not overpay anyone.
After years and years of watching Oilers fill holes with youngings that aren’t ready and expansion level players we’re watching a Organization push for a Stanley.
Unless there’s a GM banging on the door with a prime top 4 RHD with affordable term Savoie isn’t going anywhere, even then I’m not sure management ships out the best prospect in the system who’s better then any of the prospects the Holland group brought in.
I’ve said this before but 10 years ago we would have blocked shots in the nude (to borrow a phrase) to see the Oilers in the position they’re in now, and now that we’re there, it appears many are going to fret about fringe players.
The words written about Brown in the last week could fill a book and he’s now off the roster, and last I checked, Holloway and Broberg also have to have a desire to sign (for a reasonable rate) in Edmonton for Edmonton to sign them.
Yes, the Oilers lost some young talent. They also added young talent and recouped picks. Before we put the nail in the coffin of the guys we’ve added and elevate those we’ve lost to Hall of Fame status, let’s maybe watch them play a game or two?
For me Bro is 95% on Holland, 5% on JJ, 0% on Bowman. Bro was unhappy for a long time, and they as usual couldn’t make a call on him and screwed the whole thing up and lost him. I’m not sure it was possible to sign him after using him in playoffs. At least they got picks, usually they let the guy walk or trade them for peanuts
Holloway, I’m not sure. He described his own wrist as ‘mangled’, that may have played into why they were slow with him. I think they knew both were getting sheets soon after playoffs, at least. It’s a small closed community, even if they don’t tell us the truth about things
Or 20. ROUGH START ALERT!!!!
The loss of Holloway is tough because he wanted to be here and they should have found a way to make it work
The loss of Broberg is very much expected as he didn’t want to be here and there’s absolutely no way we were going to pay even half of what he got. So only thing I would say it was unfortunate that they didn’t flip him sooner.
I think you over exaggerate. For me it’s all about making the money work and allowing for the obvious flexibility of this roster. Essentially, they can go into the season with a 23-man roster including Kane and accrue cap space and they can also put Kane on LTIR, free up more cap space and still accrue. It’s been an amazing off season with ups & downs. But with those downs they’ve responded with a resounding positive response. Which is a credit to this management team.
How is 90s Fan over exaggerating?
Cap management and flexibility is more important. I guess it depends on your priorities.
Will Lavoie be on waivers today (or soon). Some thing that Vegas was not planning on getting two successful claims.
To clarify some misinformation, the Oilers do NOT have a ROFR, the claim order is the same. If he is waved and the Oilers are the only claim (likely) they will be able to send him to Bako.
Vegas did lose Aston-Reese to waiver so this probably does not happen.