Winter is coming, and that brings both good and bad. The Oilers two wins this week suggest the team is good enough to avoid early-season disaster (as happened a year ago) but let’s see how this plays out. There are still challenging moments ahead.
The Vegas Golden Knights have money now, everyone is worried they’ll spend it right away. The Golden Knights tend to wait until the deadline, acquire a player who is younger than the average deadline exit (Noah Hanifin a a recent example) and then sign him long term. If gives the team more peak seasons and is a brilliant ploy. Edmonton might want to try that someday. It is diabolical on Pollockian levels.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner, Darnell Nurse, Calvin Pickard, Connor Brown. Week 1 for the Oilers didn’t follow the script but was entertaining. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 2-3-0, four points in five games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 2-3-0, four points in five games
A nice correction for the team, Kris Knoblauch has been the coach for some exceptional winning streaks and perhaps the Oilers are in one now. The Stars are not an easy opponent, and afternoon games are traditionally an anathema for the Edmontons. Add in that it is in Dallas, and the word abominable comes to mind. The Stars are 4-1-0 this season and have allowed just eight goals in five games. Hey, that’s great!
KRIS KNOBLAUCH
I’m not sure the team can run Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line for long, but it’ll take a loss to shuffle based on past decisions by the coaching universe. Experts tell us a team need 200 minutes to know if something works, that sign post was past long ago with the Glimmer Twins. They’re magic. In 40 minutes together at five-on-five, they are 2-1 goals and 73 percent expected goals.
McDavid solo this year is 1-4 without Leon, don’t know what that’s about but Knoblauch clearly moved the big stars together for a reason. Draisaitl solo is 0-2, so what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks? Early days and small samples are clearly a big part of the equation.
Still, those solo totals are worrisome and it makes sense the coach would load up his best players on a road line when they’re struggling alone when at home.
Adam Henrique’s line looks good, 2-3 goals in 58 minutes while also hanging a 67 percent expected goal share five-on-five on the hockey world.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 0-1 with a 35 percent expected goal share in 34 five-on-five minutes. The Nuge is one of my favourites but he couldn’t ever push the river as a center without strong wingers like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. I don’t think he can outscore on the third line, even with reasonable wingers. Maybe I’m wrong.
Derek Ryan is the player I suggested should be moved to the wing. So far this season, in 35 five-on-five minutes, his line is 1-0 goals and 69 percent expected goals. Noah Philp may not get here before Christmas.
Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher have played 21:48 together and are 1-1 goals with a 55.5 percent expect goal share.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are 3-3 goals in 83 minutes with an expected goal percentage of 63. That’s five-on-five.
Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson have played 37 minutes, are 1-2 goals and their expected goal share is 76 percent.
I hate afternoon games in Dallas. Mike Modano is long gone but this team is a royal pain in the ass for the Oilers. Maybe last spring turned the tide.
We have only scored 2 first period goals it’s time to double that as well we are due for a shortie from Brown today.
Janmark against a former team – bet the Janmark goal!
Listening to coach from yesterday and changes are not imminent to PP1. He mentioned, and he’s likely quite right, once they do get going (and they will), they are likely to go on a heater. History tells us.
Also, in response to focussing on directing pucks towards the net early, of course he acknowledged that you have to get pucks in net but, at the same time, you don’t want to waste pucks on low percentage plays – you do have a man advantage.
Know if Gully is still running the PP?
I would presume.
It seems that Podkolzin is not very popular around here and so could some of you explain why?
He’s cheap, one of the very few physical Oilers, I’m seeing him have decent offensive vision and good passing skills, and he’s not treated or expected to deliver a lot of offence.
What are you seeing that is so bad?
His stats are really good other than scoring
I continue to like the bet they’ve made and think he has more to give offensively as he continues to settle in. Also seems like an extremely likable personality to have around. Even the curmudgeon JT Miller has spoken glowingly about the kid previously, no small feat.
Also, if he can find 30 points with his defensive ability that’s a pretty good Holloway replacement and will be more cap friendly. I liked Holloway but a good move by SB to recover some
Very much like this player. Does all the little things well.
Well unless Kane decides to play his first game of the season in the playoffs, I’m not sure many teams can copy the Las Vegans approach to add big contracts at the deadline.
VGK Plan A involves annual LTIR manipulation, while Plan B involves whatever it takes to get the NHL to “wink, wink, nudge, nudge” an incredibly risky/predictable signing off their salary cap.
VGK is without a doubt, currently my least favourite NHL team. And its not really even about their players.
Perhaps it’s time to trade RNH if this statement is true.
Both him and Hyman need to pull-up their bootstraps or else move them down in the batting order and take away some of their PP time.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’m willing to cut RNH a little more slack than five games.
That would be so Oilers player management.
That said a massive over reaction after 4 games
The only forwards that played less at 5 on 5 than Nuge and Arvidsson last game were Podz and Ryan. The Henrique line with Skinner and Brown is being deployed (and performing as) the 2nd line recently.
1 game.
Yes. I mean Henrique is a more established 2C than RNH.
I wonder if with the additional options KK and Stuart have at their disposal, does Nuge sliding down to PP2 happen? He’s the least important of the 5, and wasn’t really much of a threat last year on the PP. Could Skinner fill that spot, or maybe Henrique?
It’s not a bad thought but given their history together as a unit Id give them some more time before contemplating changes. Nuge himself I actually feel is integral on the PP1, even if the fifth most prominent scoring threat of the bunch.
He is typically the first touch after the entry and begins the quick puck movement when things are going well. Perhaps Skinner may do well there but Nuge’s contribution shouldnt be mimimized in my opinion.
I’m liking the Skinner-Henrique-Brown line they have good chemistry. I have a good feeling they notch 2 goals this afternoon.
We all love Nuge, but man is he having a rough start. At NST he’s bottoms in just about everything. Hopefully it’s just his typical fall malaise and flu or whatever. I think it was Holland’s plan that by going long and as low as possible on some contracts that they would slide down the list as the player did
I think Nuge has arrived a little earlier than expected at the top of the hill, and the flat cap kept the contract % higher than expected, which increases the cap squeeze. I am no fan of no trade deals. I can live with some clauses, but not being able to make ‘fair’ moves easily makes hockey teams worse and diminishes the game. Not referring to Nuge specifically, but being stuck with players that aren’t living up to contracts, or having to take penalties that are pretty heavy to move on, isn’t the best thing for the game
The NFL takes things too far, but hopefully the next deal is more balanced to keeping the game its the best it can be
This is partially the fault of old timey NHL gms. Half the teams in the league still don’t seem to understand how the cap and ageing curves interact.
I’m okay with a few NMC or NTC deals. But only for the absolute epicentre of your core.
Connor, Leon, Bouchard.
That’s about it. Maybe Skinner on his next deal if he earns it.
EDM currently has six deals with trade protection:
I can see making a sentimental case for RNH, but at this stage a limited NTC would be more appropriate. Something along the line of a 7-10 team no trade list. Same with the rest of the other guys. At this stage of their career they’ve earned the privilege of vetoing weak teams a long way from contending, or cities that aren’t a personal fit, but they shouldn’t have the final say on the team improving.
To limit possible trades (and big ticket ones, to boot) to such a degree is a severe and unforced impediment on team building.
That’s how I see it. Elites ok, respect the others, but
I’m also of the opinion a team should only retire players like Connor. Stay at the top replenishing that way. The other options are years in the mushy middle, done that, or tank but you still trade everyone away ideally
It would be sweet if Leon&Connor both retire and immediately become management with the Oilers.
Dallas’s 4 wins haven’t been against any top teams:
Seattle
Islanders
Predators
Sharks
To be fair, neither of the Oilers wins have been either……so far.
Afternoon game plus the first raodtrip of the season is usually team bonding time. And the first stop happened to be party central, Nashville.
oh boy, could be a sleepy start.
I think they must of flown to Dallas after the game in Nashville. They were on the ice in Dallas to practice the next day. Not 100% but seems most likely.
They almost always like to get out of town right after the game – unless its super late.
I would suggest you are right and they slept in Dallas on Thursday night (or Friday morning).
RNH on the 3rd line… not so fast LT. Is this a gut feel, or are you basing this projection on a line-up that perhaps I haven’t seen, TOI, or his wingers?
TOI since he moved to center. It’s just a couple five-on-five minutes per game, but to my eye Henrique’s line is the second unit.
Ya – Henrique has played more than Nuge at 5 on 5 each of the last two games.
Scheduled Loss Alert!
Anyone been watching Condors? Is Savoie playing wing or centre? Sorry if this has been mentioned already.
Wing that I’ve seen, with Philp and Caggiula. Getting some PP time, too. good to see.
Awesome. Thank you!
Second this – been wing both games (scored both game too, EN last night).
Yes, he’s on PP1 and he’s the one youngster on it – its been Carrick, Caggiula, Griffith and Pederson I think.
Off topic but related: 1G/1A for Petrov through 2 games…..
My daughter flew down to Dallas from Victoria for this game. Her first ever NHL game! Hoping for a big performance from the good guys
Agreed about RNH.
I don’t think we can really consider him a centre anymore. Maybe if his line gets cherry minutes.
I hope I am wrong because allowing Drai and McD to play together without sacrificing too much on the other lines would be great. Typically, McDrai needs to be so dominant that they can outscore enough for two lines.
While his line got the least amount of ice time last game, he did play more than half of it against the Stamkos line. Not that Stamkos is a good defensive player but likely not a “cherry match-up” despite lower minutes.
Interesting deployment although being on the road could have been part of it.
Did this mean to say 83 minutes total, or is there a malfunction at the junction between the 63 mins and 83 mins you have listed as five-on-five?
It’s 82 minutes. NO idea why I did that. Will fix and thanks.
Essentially, The Skinner-Henrique-Brown line is the second line with Leon & Connor paired up together on the top line. You are absolutely correct with your thought that Nuge can’t push the river as a center. That is why Noah Philp needs to be called up, especially if they want to run Leo & Connor together on the top line. Nuge can’t cover for them anymore. However, the Henrique line with Skinner is capable as a second unit. I’m not sure how they’re going to get Philp up, but the team needs his skill set ASAP. Ryan can hold his own as a 4c with a little help from Janmark , unless they can pick up another 4c somehow. Playing third line minutes is ideal for Philp with a couple veteran wingers. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Ok. Maybe they can trade Podz for a draft pick, sooner rather than later.
How does Nuge not being able push the river mean that Philp needs to be called up?
Perspicacity!
Like yesternight, a nontet of NAmateurs can see action (action). Read all about it:
The full NCAA complement is on the sched, including Paul Fischer and #18 Notre Dame. Including their lone exhibition match, he has five assists in four games as their 1LD.
Mazura leads his St. Lawrence squadron with 1+3 in five games.
Lachance tops #3 BU’s scoring with 1+4 in three games, while Copponi has yet to get off the schneid.
By netting his first goal last night, Berry has already matched last year’s total (in 59 GP).
The Vermonters and the Flintians complete the sched.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Skookumchuck time.
We’re doing BC now? Last I checked, that’s enemy territory…
I don’t know. Parts of the Okanagon are basically Alberta colonies.
Some of us have infiltrated! Skookumchuck has to be one of the all time great names
Just the areas that are on Mountain time, i.e. the East Kootenays and environs. Figured I’d sprinkle in a few places, as I quite enjoy that area.
And yes, Skookumchuck is a cool name.
It’s such a cool name that there are three Skookumchuks in B.C. Two are down here on the West Coast.
Drove an Aussie friend around once and Skookumchuck was their fave and got some laughs
Funny here on the South island we use the word Skookum. Meaning big and strong.
I never heard use of the word skookum until I moved to the coast. Always thought it meant slick or fancy – in a good way
I would say that’s probably correct as well
Haha… When I hear that term used at work, I know the person is from B.C.
Agreed, it means something really robust and unassailable.
It’s a skookum name, for a skookum place!
Thanks for clarifying.
Haha that sums it up
A couple notes to add:
Clattenburg has an upper body injury but is close to returning.
Day-man’s 2.43 GAA is good for 7th-best in the OHL.
He’s a master of goaltending and friendship….for everyone!
I’m hoping Akey can get up to speed – not that I have eyes on the games but it seems he’s been quiet early coming back from injury and no games in exhibition.
I’m with you LT. Oilers early season. On the road. In an afternoon game. Against a tough opponent. This game has a 6-2 loss vibe about it. Not even going to bother tuning in to this one. Will just ruin the rest of my day.
Good test for the Oilers today, but too bad it’s an afternoon game where the Oilers tend to be on the losing end. Speaking of tending, let’s see how SSkinner plays today.
Thanks for all you do here LT!
Oilers have had a rep of being crap in day games simce the ‘80s, but they’ve actually been a pretty good matinée team for a few years now.
Last year they lost their first 2 early games (6 GF, 11 GA), then went 8-0-1 the rest of the way (37 GF, 12 GA). Included was a 4-3 overtime win at Dallas on Feb 17, with Evan Bouchard the OT hero.
Thanks for this Bruce, as always. I was feeling like more recently the matinees having been the team death knell quite as they once were, but didnt have the recall or inclination to look into this further.