Winter is coming, and that brings both good and bad. The Oilers two wins this week suggest the team is good enough to avoid early-season disaster (as happened a year ago) but let’s see how this plays out. There are still challenging moments ahead.
The Vegas Golden Knights have money now, everyone is worried they’ll spend it right away. The Golden Knights tend to wait until the deadline, acquire a player who is younger than the average deadline exit (Noah Hanifin a a recent example) and then sign him long term. If gives the team more peak seasons and is a brilliant ploy. Edmonton might want to try that someday. It is diabolical on Pollockian levels.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner, Darnell Nurse, Calvin Pickard, Connor Brown. Week 1 for the Oilers didn’t follow the script but was entertaining. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 2-3-0, four points in five games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 2-3-0, four points in five games
A nice correction for the team, Kris Knoblauch has been the coach for some exceptional winning streaks and perhaps the Oilers are in one now. The Stars are not an easy opponent, and afternoon games are traditionally an anathema for the Edmontons. Add in that it is in Dallas, and the word abominable comes to mind. The Stars are 4-1-0 this season and have allowed just eight goals in five games. Hey, that’s great!
KRIS KNOBLAUCH
I’m not sure the team can run Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line for long, but it’ll take a loss to shuffle based on past decisions by the coaching universe. Experts tell us a team need 200 minutes to know if something works, that sign post was past long ago with the Glimmer Twins. They’re magic. In 40 minutes together at five-on-five, they are 2-1 goals and 73 percent expected goals.
McDavid solo this year is 1-4 without Leon, don’t know what that’s about but Knoblauch clearly moved the big stars together for a reason. Draisaitl solo is 0-2, so what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks? Early days and small samples are clearly a big part of the equation.
Still, those solo totals are worrisome and it makes sense the coach would load up his best players on a road line when they’re struggling alone when at home.
Adam Henrique’s line looks good, 2-3 goals in 58 minutes while also hanging a 67 percent expected goal share five-on-five on the hockey world.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 0-1 with a 35 percent expected goal share in 34 five-on-five minutes. The Nuge is one of my favourites but he couldn’t ever push the river as a center without strong wingers like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. I don’t think he can outscore on the third line, even with reasonable wingers. Maybe I’m wrong.
Derek Ryan is the player I suggested should be moved to the wing. So far this season, in 35 five-on-five minutes, his line is 1-0 goals and 69 percent expected goals. Noah Philp may not get here before Christmas.
Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher have played 21:48 together and are 1-1 goals with a 55.5 percent expect goal share.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are 3-3 goals in 83 minutes with an expected goal percentage of 63. That’s five-on-five.
Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson have played 37 minutes, are 1-2 goals and their expected goal share is 76 percent.
I hate afternoon games in Dallas. Mike Modano is long gone but this team is a royal pain in the ass for the Oilers. Maybe last spring turned the tide.
Dear Jays. Please give Juan Soto all your money.
The Jays ownership has no desire to win.
Ok 1 more thing bugging me.
Our election in BC is today. It’s all in the computer now. Why are the results flip flopping? Should we not know the score at 8:01?
Things bugging me tonight.
Anyone making a argument Skinner can win us a Cup
All the Broberg and Holloway updates. I like them both but they’re not Oilers.
Anyone saying Nurse is a joke. The kids a good player. Not 9 million but that’s not the point He’s still a good player.
Thats it for now. I’m open for debate
1) Its tough to argue that he can’t be the starting goaltender on a Cup Winning team considering he may have been a Bouchard 3rd period post away from that. The Oiler did lose this game because of the goaltending discrepancy foremost and Skinner has not been good enough to start the season
2) Agreed – its making me want to cheer against them and I don’t really want that.
3) Agreed – he was having a very nice game again until the team fell apart in the 3rd period led by McDavid and Ekholm on the 2GA.
Number 1 is my point. Bouchard hit the post but Bob made many key saves. Most importantly 1 more than Skinner.
He’s a good goalie but not a top tier imo.
The first goal tonight he just absolutely has to stop. It changed and probably cost us the game
I think after that 1st goal, Stu knew it was a stinker and I further suspect he lost his confidence (what little even existed prior) and the game was sunk. I hope our brilliant management team are hunting for a skilled stopper.
But, and it’s a BIG one, at the other end of the rink no one is scoring… not even Connor. He’s just too good to extend this lack of production, but generally speaking, there are 10+ other forwards that aren’t finishing enough.
I don’t disagree with any of that but will note that Skinner had a better save percentage, GAA and GSAA than Bob in the finals. He is not, and will not be (in my opinion) a top tier goalie but he has proven with absolute certainty to be “good enough” to get a team without a goal, or a save, of the championship which provides a real argument that he can be a winning goalie on a cup team, no?
No I don’t think he can
OK, you can have that opinion – seems factual history all but prove otherwise but that’s OK.
First, Nurse is NOT a “kid” anymore. He hasn’t developed physically or mentally as a player should. Nobody is afraid of coming down his side of the ice. He glides into them with his stick first. Nobody pays the price.
Secondly, our problem is still D… after all these years. The money they HAVE to pay Nurse means we could have kept Broberg and Vinnie imho. So you can say $9M isn’t the point but the exact opposite is true. It IS the entire point. It affects the entire lineup in so many ways.
Absolutely, $9M for what Nurse brings has been a problem.
Solid first period – Condors has the puck more which is reflected in the 12-7 shots (and they had quite a few blocked). Only 7 shots for Rodrigue but probably 4 fairly dangerous chances.
Philp starts as PK3 (Caggiula/Hamblin and Grubbe/Pederson) but he draws a penalty battling for a loose puck in the neutral zone.
You’d think he’d be 1 or 2
I’m cool with him being on PP2 as he’s unlikely to be an impactful PP player in the NHL, however, the PK will be an important part of this NHL success.
And yet they have him on PK3 in Bako. Strange.
Summarizing!
Mazura had his finest offensive game of his collegiate career, racking up four assists in a 8-0 win. Not normally known for his faceoff prowess, he went 13-for-23 (56.5%) on the dot.
Another night where the only NAmateur goal came from a seldom-scoring d-man. This time ’twas Münzenberger, tallying Vermont’s only goal in a loss.
Copponi and Lachance assisted on the same PP goal, marking the former’s first point as a Terrier.
Day had his roughest outing this season, allowing five goals on 33 shots in a 5-3 loss.
Määttä, Fischer and Berry were held soupless.
Clattenburg remained out of the lineup.
Broberg on the ice for a PPG against. First GA.
Any Taylor Hall updates tonight or has that ship sailed?
Holloway from Broberg. Would be nice to have those guys around
i wont’t hold it against you if you jump on the blue’s band wagon.
A nifty pass in tight after navigating defenders plus a slick finish.
Gleason back and Brown out tonight – they are rotating the healthy scratch due to the vet rule. Looks like Berglund to get in his first game of the season:
Caggiula/Philp/Savoie
D’Amato/Pederson/Wright
Petrov/Hamblin/Griffith
Berglund/Grubbe/Stefan
Gleason/Kemp
Hoefanmayer/Wanner
Kannic-Leipert/Carrick
Rodrige
Early season looking very similar to last year.
I only saw the first two periods. Imagine my surprise at the final score. They looked so good!! I’d start giving the 2nd pp unit more time though. They have a bunch of good players sitting too long.
That PP goal by Dallas near the end of the first period cost Oilers the game. Then going into the third with that one goal lead was a huge boost for the Stars. In other words they got Goalied.
This was a goaltending win / loss – first and foremost.
I don’t think Bowman will be as patient as Holland was when it comes to goaltending. I do think as we speak he’s quietly looking for above average netminder.
Has anyone ever pointed out that we could have had a blue-chip goalie prospect like, say, Jesper Wallstedt pushing for employment instead of, say, a smallish forward who barely pissed a drop in the AHL and isn’t even in the org anymore? Asking for a friend.
not trying to be a bad guy but Rodrigue is actually posting better stats
Thankfully the Oilers made the Wright choose and moved on.
Skinner beat Oettinger in the western conference finals last year. That was a goaltending win/loss first and foremost.
That’s nice but I’m posting about tonight’s game.
I’m behind line but that 2nd goal against started with a terrible offensive zone giveaway by McDavid and horrid back pressure play by Ekholm – Bouch had a good enough angle that Ek needed to leave the puck carrier to Bouch and Skinner. He left the trailer wide open – that was his guy.
That’s was not NHL level defending.
Nor was Nurse and Henrique hearing the same dog whistle on goal 3. Nor was Henrique not at least attempting a shot block on Duschene PP goal. Made a great deflection though.
Way too puck focused. Just watch the entire 5 man units in the D zone with their skates and bodies pointed directly at the puck the whole shift. Guess they’ve never been taught skates up ice, head on a swivel, it’s the guy beside you without the puck that will get the goal
Nice to have Stolen the Ottenger shutout. Oilers have no goal scoring mojo. Better goaltending and better special teams…won this game. Saying we are not worried about goal scoring. I cannot remember too many times in the Mcdavid era where this team has had scoring issues. Seems like we are there. Will Hyman ever score again? Nuge looking very ordinary on the PP. May finally be time to try something else. Very stale.
1st goal deflection, 2nd and 3rd goals point blank with Oilers supposed best players also in photo. Love that phrase from LT btw
There’s no room for these Defensive implosions with Ottenger at one end and the finishing ability of the Stars forwards.
Adds up to a predictable loss.
What’s MacT doing These days? Maybe he can teach these guys how to play in their own end and how to block shots
You mean like how they were for 80 plus games last year (including playoffs) after they hired their current head coach?
There’s been alot of roster turnover since June. Very little of what was brought in would be considered strong defensively.
They will loose most goaltending battles because they dont have enough players willing or able to defend
OK, but your post had spoke to another coach being needed to get the players to play defensively, not to the player personnel being the issue. This coach has proven to be able to coach a team to play that way, no?
On the bright side, re-signing Bouchard is getting less expensive daily! -).
Doesn’t Bouchard have a history of starting the season poorly?
Yep. That has to be factored into his value
It will keep him from being $12MM per to around $10MM per as he’ll finish with PPG (as opposed to 100 points) and be dominant in both ends for the last 4 months of the season and playoffs, as he’s established.
It actually means that Godot’s comment is rather pointless.
Seems like the Oilers mostly played pretty well tonight. But a few key players weren’t “on” and it cost them.
I like that Jeff Skinner gets so pissed about losing. More of that passion please.
He was clearly tripped on that play too… might be over the non-call
He was pissed that Harley wasn’t called for tripping him.
Robertson made 3 Oilers look silly
How was that not a trip?!
Missed trip lead to that EN to seal the deal.
At least they spoiled the shutout.
And kept Duchene from getting the hat trick
It was said earlier in the thread but special teams are absolutely sinking this team in the first 6 games.
Goaltending and poor finishing at all states probably next on the list.
The result today is tough considering the process on the ice.
Perhaps we see a split of 29+97 at 5v5 and a shakeup on the PP.
A practice before the next game will do wonders.
100% agree with all of this.
We will see how the coach deals with this; play the G twins until it’s over or actually make a statement and shake the tree. Stew is building on his reputation as well, it would be nice if he actually won a game or two until the special teams get it together.
That 4th line shift, with the 5 players playing as a unit, using the cycle, pinching, covering, forechecking… that’s what we saw consistently during the winning streak.
The glimmer twins need to take note. They are responsible for setting the tone, not the 4th. This team could be a juggernaut instead of a Rollercoaster
Nils Lundqvist is one of the three defensemen in the NHL who have not been on for a goal against.
Henrique with another brutal give away, can’t win a face off, down 0-3 now.
Game over.
They had chances but the PP is stale like moldy bread. It’s time for a shakeup. Skinner for RNH.
Wtf was Ekholm doing there??
These games are brutal to watch. Where’s #97 and when is he going to show up??
Argh…. They don’t deserve their fate today. I wonder what the SCF are…
Edit: never mind. Rico just got fed for a shift
This game reminds me of game 1 against Florida. Dominated them but kept shooting everything low and into the goalies pads. Every defensive mistake ended up in the back of our net.
McDavid steps on the ice, fumbles the puck in the o-zone, and a goal against.
Very poor sequence by the 1st line. First Drai, then McDavid, then Bouchard and Ekholm flat footed.
Bouchard is having an awful game.
Blew a tire but Elkhom did not cover his man either.
McDavid did not backcheck on Duchene.
Yea poor play all around.
Very poor shift by McDavid.
Bouchard really needs more urgency on the backcheck.
Ha, urgency is not part of his game
Looks like poor special teams will cost us again this game.
Huge save by Skinner.
Win or lose, this has been a great hockey game.
Hyman may not score a goal this year…………
Man, this is happening a lot. Dominate possession and shots but come away with a deficit on the scoreboard. Last year started with a lot of these games too.
Is Leon not recovered from the rib thing? He’s been pretty shy on most plays this year.. Is this why he isn’t centering his own line…? Wild speculation, I know.
Had a hell of a game in the dot.
Time to split up the glimmer twins?
Nuge 11/13 on draws, Henrique 0/6 lol.
Skinner needed to make that save.
Duchene is not Reinhart…. I don’t have a tonne of forgiveness for this goal.
Edit: unless it was deflected…
Sketchy goaltending.
Some players make themselves bigger to block shots … Nurse somehow makes himself smaller. Looked like a deer in the headlights there.
The goal was a deflection. Skinner was in position for the original shot.
Oilers special teams continue to be especially bad this season.
Stetcher lets a silly impulse get the better of him and is sent off. Moments later the puck is in the net on a good blast but from distance. Skinner likely thinks gets that one most times.
That’s on Skinner.
I think it was deflected. Could be wrong.
Nurse again? Or Henrique
I mean I think it was Nurse, but I honestly don’t know for sure IF it was deflected. I suspect it was, will go back and look after the game.
Sportsnet app keeps conking out when streaming to tv – since start of season. Anyone else having issues this year?
Back to the pirate ship it seems this year. I hope Amazon goes full tilt with NHL.
Been fine so far. But it’s been an issue in the past. The app is horrendous.
It’s wild how hard the NHL makes it to watch hockey lol.
Big time. I imagine NHL refs are in charge of the sportsnet app. the app is about as predictable and consistent as NHL reffing.
For this season I was able to get sportsnet as an add on to my Amazon Prime supscription. Basically same content but it runs through the Prime app. Freezing issues non-existent so far. I really hated the sportsnet app.
Skinner scores on two of those PP chances.
lol
Good work by Stu in a heretofore quiet game