In the months leading up to his draft, Marc Pouliot was flattened by Dion Phaneuf at the top prospects game. He would endure injuries great and small afterward, from mono to pubis and back again.
I followed MAP’s career so long he became MP, and watched him long enough to see him as an extra in another rebuild. In October 2007, Craig MacTavish said “Pouliot has a ways to go, but it looks to me like he’ll get there. He thinks offensively with those kids. I saw some heady plays with them on the cycle” on a night when Pouliot was fourth line with Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. He had 12 shifts, played 10:13, and didn’t place a crooked number anywhere in the boxscore.
Nowadays, Pouliot is remembered for all kinds of things, or not at all. It doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but I think he could have had a career if the organization had played things differently.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
- New Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
- Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
In 2006-07, Pouliot’s rookie season, he scored 4-6-10 in 46 games, 511:29 even strength time on ice. That’s 1.17 even strength points per 60, or about what Ty Rattie did a year ago. He was 21. The following season (1.54 in 233 minutes) showed small improvement, but at 23 MAP posted 1.66 in 649 minutes and I thought he was gaining momentum. His most common linemates were Ethan Moreau and Cogliano, and he played 63 games (8-12-20). In 2009-10 things got weird, Pat Quinn was coach and things were just on the other side of unusual. However, Pouliot posted 2.03 points per 60 at even strength alongside men like Zack Stortini and Ethan Moreau.
That season, 2009-10, was the last real season of his NHL career. I’ll go to my grave believing he could have been a productive NHL player. No minor league team, the mistakes of youth, Pat Quinn (God bless him) perhaps a little too long in the coaching game.
The Oilers weren’t down on Pouliot, in fact during the Lowe-MacT years he was always one of the prospects discussed as having a future. Steve Tambellini traded Kyle Brodziak and kept Pouliot (by then they were applying for the same job). This despite some clear evidence Brodziak was a better player. About one month before the team dealt Brodziak, I wrote:
“I’m no expert at sussing this stuff out, but it looks to me like they had somewhat similar seasons in terms of offense. 5×5/60 is very close, and their GF/GA ON is also close. The difference is that Pouliot did it with below average help and Brodziak did it (based on Desjardins and eyeball) with guys who would need a day’s drive to get to below average. This would also account for the bad Corsi (you try dragging these people all over the ice) compared to Pouliot.”
BOTTOM LINE
I’m writing this to you because there’s a lot to remind me of me and Pouliot back in 2003. So much has to go right and so much can go wrong. Here’s another thing I wrote when Pouliot was no longer a part of the organization:
“He was actually injured before the draft–at the Top Prospects game in 2003 when Dion Phaneuf leveled him with a vicious (and clean) check. In the summer of 2003 he got hurt at the Canadian WJC camp in Calgary (hip) and that had a major impact on his 18-year old season. It also hurt his performance at the Oilers rookie camp just two months after being drafted. In November 2003 he suffered an abdominal injury and missed the Q/Russia prospects game and he played on 42 QMJHL games that season, finally having surgery in Montreal in summer 2004 to repair the abdominal tissues. He played 3 weeks with a broken wrist during the 2003-04 season. Mono just before the Stanley run. Possibly a major impact on his career. Pubis thing.”
Injuries. Coaching changes. Entire seasons played as an orphan in the AHL. Terrible line changes in the NHL and sins of postgame spread etiquette made famous by veterans. Management making the wrong call and trading the better player. I’m telling you now so you’ll know, even if you don’t believe me: Some of the young players you are counting on aren’t going to make it. Full stop. It behooves you to at least allow for the possibility your favourite prospect will land outside the NHL for the heart of his career. The Pouliot-Brodziak lesson also addresses reasons for keeping Jesse Puljujarvi, who even at this point is the best young forward prospect in the organization.
chrisco stu,
Archer? Is that you?
I’m not going to do all the years, but I believe there were only 12 total 3 x 20 goal scorers drafted outside the first round from the 1999, 2000 and 2001 drafts. 4 per year.
You can’t reasonably expect anyone picked in the last 5 yrs to have scored 3 x 20, so you’re looking at 15 yrs X 4 players = around 60 total (less realistically since a lot of these guys are still just getting underway).
Even generously that’s less than 2 players per team since 1999. The Oilers are slightly off pace, but not even by a full player.
Abject failure might be a little strong.
marino
You’d take a 6th for JP?
What about assists that are a result of rebounds generated from HD shots?
How does your model account for drivers who accumulate assists from good saves off talented goaltenders who can’t recover their rebounds?
OriginalPouzar,
For what it’s worth (IE. nothing) my CapFriendly lineup has been revolving around a 3rd line of:
JJ-MG-JA
for quite some time now. Keep the unproven Euros on the 4th line for now until they push, and give the more established bottom-6 players a chance to impress against the soft parade.
I thought Pitlick might squeak out 20 a few years back but the injury bug derailed his season. Still wish they would have kept him he’s my underdog type of player I like cheering for. I’m bullish on Benson and if Tippett plays him top six with skill also 2nd PP I have no doubt 20 is in the cards sooner than later.
I just went back to ‘99. We drafted Horcoff in ‘98. We also drafted Lombardi in 2000, but let him walk. The Flames drafted him in 2002. He only scored 20 once, but was a good player. We actually had success in the late ‘90s and early 2000s, but it’s been crickets since Brodziak in 2003.
If Jesse would go to the net and play with a attitude he would score a lot of garbage goals with his long reach and heavy body but it’s been three years and it just isn’t in him. If you play the perimeter all the time you better have a sniper shot are you won’t last long in the NHL.
Amen.
I have shown repeatedly in the past the age based even NHLE of prospects.
Highlighting the best Age NHLE evg scorers.
Oilers mgmt has sought out great passers (1A, 2A) who recieve points.
That same flawed mentality is here on this blog.
Scorers generate goals.
Passers recieve assists.
Comrade Horcoff netted 22 in 2005-2006 season
Goal diff is
1. Open shot density from attacking skaters.
Each has a diffrent avg they regress to.
1 avg for 14 forwards.
2. Save% baseline established by sum of Dpairs open shot density to each side.
Each side regresses to their own average.
2 avg for 3 pairs
3. Save% from goalie relative to baseline.
This is the minimum resolution for expected individual performance as a +/- to expected.
GF and GA.
PDO
It does not tell you anything about the Attackers
3- or 3-1
And
The defenders 2-1 or 1-1
PDO tells us their are shots
Well some are open shots and some are closed
and
their are saves.
Well some are saves and some are closed shots( hit goalie)
My Open PDO per side has some real value.
Minimal but real.
Our failure at drafting is our inability to select legit 20 goal scorers outside the first round. Mike Comrie in 1999 was the last player we drafted outside the first round to score 20 goals three seasons or more. One guy in 20 years. We did draft Brodziak who scored 20 once and Stoll who did it twice. This is an abject failure.
Been in hospital with bronchial infection since sat night.
Just got out tonight!
Bling is Broberg still 4 th skater back a lot of the time.
Holland will fine tune that.
Over the next 2-4 yrs before he sees NHL.
Most 1st skaters back ( dmen) would hope the 2 Nd skater back is a dpartner not a 3rd to 5 th skater back ( rover).
We have 16-17’s 212 ga in 17-18 & 18-19, we would have been in playoffs for 3 straight years.
3-1-1-1 sucks!
It really really sucks!
Yeah!
Holland
Tippett
Playfair
One of those 4 LD need to go now for a cost controled high end winger as the value of those 4 are ALL at their absolute peak via-a-vis all parameters that matter. We are not making the playoffs this year anyways so now is the logical time to do it.
Good night dude. Adult blog, but kids still up.
Kirk out.
It’s a hard time of year. Nothing going on.
I love hockey, and summer. I’m in conflict as I see summer closing and hockey coming, every year.
Now you rich guys will tell me both are possible.
Muchos Gracias Amigo!
#JesseResurrection2019
This is a good left d:
Nurse
Klefbum (that’s hot)
Broberg
Samarukov
I like. Well, 1-2 will be Brober and Sammy in two years when I am fucking 50 (take that effn OP). Just need a 1 RD as Bouch is not that guy. Fuck. We still need that 1Rd. Gerbils on a wheel we are.
You have to be trusted by the people you lie to.
Just nod if you can hear me.
Hello. Is there anybody out there?
Sure, it is what it is, but I look at our prospect pipeline and I don’t really see any forwards who are projecting to be difference makers. Obviously Benson or Marody could “pop” (or KY) and produce with skill, but I don’t think at 8 the difference in talent is the same as taking BPA first overall. I know you feel differently.
I know Holland said he had him as his BPA other than one forward outside of the top 2, but I’m not sure how much that really means. Passing up a historic goal scorer when you have zero secondary scoring seems too much of the “smartest man in the room” type thinking we’ve seen so often with this org. I could be totally wrong, and I hope I am.
If he does well and plays consistent in Bakersfield he definitely will be back in the fold after Christmas.
I’m hoping the new regime drops the macho meme.
Yama needs to be relentless and he has to be full motor 24/7.
But it’s pointless for him to try to win his battles with physicality, he won’t. His brain and skill is the only way.
To me Larsson is in the same boat. He stated when he came that the team needed him to be the ass kicker on D.
The thing is he’s not really that big in terms of his weight to height ratio. And I think the wear and tear are taking away from the subtle but really effective game he can play.
Let the 215-220 pound guys be the bangers. It’s no effort because they are bigger than almost every forward in the league.
Larsson will never be a ‘puck mover ‘ but he can pass and he can really get pucks back. Let him play his natural game and resign at a decent salary, enjoy relative health, and reap the rewards when the chips are down.
He also has a nice sneaky shot IMO.
Is he “always hurt”? He missed some games here or there in his junior career, at almost every player does in Major Junior and Professional hockey.
His last season of junior was only 40 games but he missed time being with the Oilers and the World Junior Team.
He was banged up this past year for real but I’m not sure his wrist injury has anything to do with stature.
Because he’s always hurt. For him to be effective he needs to be relentless and aggressive and so far when he plays that style he gets hurt.
Bam. I like. Went to their show at WEM in a disasterous state but it was one hell of a fun time ?
I actually wrote about him just the other day.
https://theathletic.com/1106490/2019/08/01/lowetide-kailer-yamamoto-has-the-talent-to-win-a-job-with-the-oilers-on-merit-if-hes-healthy/
As for the overall RE, I’m still basically at the time on ice stage and there’s just so many variables. Ideally you have far more certainty than we have at this time. I’ll have the RE but it will be late August for sure.
Northeastern is also Josh Manson’s alma mater, and Jamie Oleksiak
When thinking of players who would be recent comparables, Colton Parayko came to mind. Late bloomer, both grew a lot later in their teens. Kesselring could be on a similar development pathObviously the odds are against that, but Parayko was passed over in his draft year and put up much better #’S in his second year of eligibility.
There are parallels and obviously that would be the best case scenario, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility
That line looks lovely and I do think we can see a three center set. I’m fairly confident Granlund and Archibald are pencilled in around that third line (Nygard in the conversation as is Sam).
Perhaps the “4th” line is JJ/Marody/JP.
Lots of inexperience so probably doesn’t work.
He doesn’t want to come back and frankly I really think Holland has moved on from him unless Jesse’s camp does a 180 can’t see it happening.
OriginalPouzar,
Looks like he’s committing to the NCAA route, so he’ll have four years at Northeastern (Benning’s alma matter) to matriculate.
Reja,
Much of that lines up with what I saw, but I did also see some real chemistry starting to form with Nuge and JJ. He also looked decent with Strome, but that ship has certainly sailed.
If he comes back there is a reasonable potential for unicorns, putting JJ-RNH-JP back together as a third line against the soft parade.
The Kid Line
I believe the number one factor is his refusal to go to the net combine that with McMuffin shots and not being in the same universe with his line mates regardless of who they were. I imagine this really pissed off the Coaching staff.
Great post.
Actually, he was one of the players I was specifically going to reference when I started the “research” for the post but totally missed him and forgot.
From many accounts, in particular McCurdy and Staples, he looks to have taken a massive step year over year based on development camp. Not only has he filled out his massive frame but they’ve both stated, if we were told he’s the new first round pick, noone would have batted an eye.
Development camp is what it is but he’s definitely a prospect of note.
Of course a good 3 years before we talk contract, barring something totally unforseen.
That really really sucks. Very sad to read that.
Benson gets plenty of love – in fact, I would posit that amount of love he gets is consistent with, well, the amount of love he’s earned.
I don’t know of a single Oiler fan that rates Puljujarvi ahead of Benson at this point.
Discussing Jesse and his potential and where its at and if he should be added to the top 9 competition conversation does not discount Benson’s potential – He’s been projected as 1LW, 2LW, 3LW and Condor for October 2 by the fan-base but, aside for a rare exception, I don’t know of any Oiler fan that isn’t thinking he could very well be playing NHL games this season
Yes, of course, if Benson didn’t lose that development time, things would likely look different – of course, he wouldn’t have been available at the beginning of the second round. He’s still working at getting his pre-injury, up for exceptional status like, skill back.
but what about elite skating and wing span?
14 orgs passed on this guy – he may very well make some look bad.
I am fully comfortable with the Broberg pick.
Its ALL PDO and zone start related.
Nope: Wristers/snapshots from just inside the blue line off the rush do NOT impact PDO negatively, not one iota………………
OriginalPouzar,
Don’t sleep on Mike Kesselring either. Up arrows since draft day (2018, round 6/164 overall).
I don’t disagree with any of this. I simply don’t believe the top 10 of the draft is the place where future balance should be a consideration.
As I said, one trade can change the perception of the lineup.
OriginalPouzar,
Agreed.
Personally speaking, I think the narrative of the Oilers being atrocious at drafting and development is overblown. For example, there wasn’t likely to be any team that would have turned Jason Bonsignore into a superstar. More recently, the Oilers were keen on Mark McNeill but the Blackhawks saved them from that mistake. Had CHI drafted, say, Klefbom instead and we took McNeill, we’d be lamenting the fact that we “ruined” another prospect. Yet there’s a success story of draft and development right in front of us, in our top four, and we rarely hear people giving the team it’s due credit. Ditto Duby, Nurse, Eberle, and others. Many other teams miss and pick the wrong player, or whiff on development. We just don’t focus on that aspect so much because it’s not in our backyard.
A sixth tround pick is what it is but I’ll certainly take it for a player that wasn’t going to sign. The Oilers have seome decent tredning picks from the 6th and 7th rounds the last whiel:
Patrik Siikanen – 7th rounder in 2018 – trending well and looks to play a material role for Finland at this year’s World Juniors
Phil Kemp – 7th rounder in 2017 – definitely up arrows. Last cut from the US World Junior team in his draft plus 1 and made the team in draft plus 2 and ended up playing solid top 4 minutes. He’s earning himself an NHL contract and has some NHL potential – miles to go.
Vincent Desharnais – 7th rounder in 2016 – I don’t know his story like I do Kemp’s but some have him rated near or higher than Kemp.
The list would look better if Rasanen and McPhee didn’t have down years – I blame Boston College.
Oh, and Maksimov was a 5th rounder – not quite 6th but another later pick that could impact the lineup and sooner.
I don’t think I have seen a high potential player’s development get effed completely with each of the organization, the player and the agent seemingly having major roles in the eff ups.
Fuhr and Lowething.,
TSN did a moving documentary on him when this came to light recently.
I agree with most of what you are saying. I do think players factor in their fit in a dressing room, when it comes to contracts. Geez, look at the NBA!
New GM, new coach, thin depth at RW and 3 good centers.
Give me a better theory why he wants out.
Off topic, and if this has already been shared here my apologies, but man it’s heartbreaking.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/joe-murphy-the-no-1-pick-in-1986-nhl-draft-is-homeless-again-and-refusing-help/ar-AAFwtke