The Ballad of Marc Pouliot

In the months leading up to his draft, Marc Pouliot was flattened by Dion Phaneuf at the top prospects game. He would endure injuries great and small afterward, from mono to pubis and back again.

I followed MAP’s career so long he became MP, and watched him long enough to see him as an extra in another rebuild. In October 2007, Craig MacTavish said “Pouliot has a ways to go, but it looks to me like he’ll get there. He thinks offensively with those kids. I saw some heady plays with them on the cycle” on a night when Pouliot was fourth line with Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano. He had 12 shifts, played 10:13, and didn’t place a crooked number anywhere in the boxscore.

Nowadays, Pouliot is remembered for all kinds of things, or not at all. It doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but I think he could have had a career if the organization had played things differently.

 THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • New Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
  • Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

In 2006-07, Pouliot’s rookie season, he scored 4-6-10 in 46 games, 511:29 even strength time on ice. That’s 1.17 even strength points per 60, or about what Ty Rattie did a year ago. He was 21. The following season (1.54 in 233 minutes) showed small improvement, but at 23 MAP posted 1.66 in 649 minutes and I thought he was gaining momentum. His most common linemates were Ethan Moreau and Cogliano, and he played 63 games (8-12-20). In 2009-10 things got weird, Pat Quinn was coach and things were just on the other side of unusual. However, Pouliot posted 2.03 points per 60 at even strength alongside men like Zack Stortini and Ethan Moreau.

That season, 2009-10, was the last real season of his NHL career. I’ll go to my grave believing he could have been a productive NHL player. No minor league team, the mistakes of youth, Pat Quinn (God bless him) perhaps a little too long in the coaching game.

The Oilers weren’t down on Pouliot, in fact during the Lowe-MacT years he was always one of the prospects discussed as having a future. Steve Tambellini traded Kyle Brodziak and kept Pouliot (by then they were applying for the same job). This despite some clear evidence Brodziak was a better player. About one month before the team dealt Brodziak, I wrote:

“I’m no expert at sussing this stuff out, but it looks to me like they had somewhat similar seasons in terms of offense. 5×5/60 is very close, and their GF/GA ON is also close. The difference is that Pouliot did it with below average help and Brodziak did it (based on Desjardins and eyeball) with guys who would need a day’s drive to get to below average. This would also account for the bad Corsi (you try dragging these people all over the ice) compared to Pouliot.”

BOTTOM LINE

I’m writing this to you because there’s a lot to remind me of me and Pouliot back in 2003. So much has to go right and so much can go wrong. Here’s another thing I wrote when Pouliot was no longer a part of the organization:

“He was actually injured before the draft–at the Top Prospects game in 2003 when Dion Phaneuf leveled him with a vicious (and clean) check. In the summer of 2003 he got hurt at the Canadian WJC camp in Calgary (hip) and that had a major impact on his 18-year old season. It also hurt his performance at the Oilers rookie camp just two months after being drafted. In November 2003 he suffered an abdominal injury and missed the Q/Russia prospects game and he played on 42 QMJHL games that season, finally having surgery in Montreal in summer 2004 to repair the abdominal tissues. He played 3 weeks with a broken wrist during the 2003-04 season. Mono just before the Stanley run. Possibly a major impact on his career. Pubis thing.”

Injuries. Coaching changes. Entire seasons played as an orphan in the AHL. Terrible line changes in the NHL and sins of postgame spread etiquette made famous by veterans. Management making the wrong call and trading the better player. I’m telling you now so you’ll know, even if you don’t believe me: Some of the young players you are counting on aren’t going to make it. Full stop. It behooves you to at least allow for the possibility your favourite prospect will land outside the NHL for the heart of his career. The Pouliot-Brodziak lesson also addresses reasons for keeping Jesse Puljujarvi, who even at this point is the best young forward prospect in the organization.

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138 Responses to "The Ballad of Marc Pouliot"

  1. Ben says:

    …Rosebud…*dies*

  2. McNuge93 says:

    Second! LT is Pulu still considered a prospect? Hasn’t he played enough to move past that label? To me, Benson is our best forward prospect, but you’re scaring me with the Pouliot injury comparison.

    On defence we only need 2 or 3 of our many prospects to turn out.

  3. Bling says:

    Great article, LT. I always liked MP and hadn’t realized how impressive his 5×5 scoring was. He certainly passed the eye test. He could make plays out there and that’s for sure.

    A lot of guys from that period of time got lost. Jani Rita, Doug Lynch. Not every prospect can make it, but in a sense, MP hitting 2.0 P/60 is making it.

    After that, the team needs to reward the player. Coaches are arbiters of fate.

    I still have a lot of patience for JP.

    Lots of people seem to have forgotten what it means to be young and frustrated. It doesn’t have to be the end, and often it’s just the beginning.

  4. chrisco stu says:

    I was thinking about this last night, and I don’t believe that Ken Holland has extended an offer to JP beyond his initial qualifying offer. I believe that it’s Holland’s preference that he play in Europe this year and that Jesse’s repeated trade requests and statements coupled with the fact that he hasn’t signed with a European team yet is his attempt to avoid Europe at all costs. I don’t think that Holland sees room for him on the roster and I’m not sure that I do either. Nothing is final with Jesse, but I can’t see him anywhere in the nhl this year. Whether or not he is next year is entirely up to him.

  5. Bling says:

    I watched some Broberg video, and was just mesmerized by his skating.

    Not just the speed — which is spectacular — but his edges are incredible as well.

    There are sequences where you feel like he’s going too fast down that wing, that he’ll run out of real estate and have to circle the net. But those edges! He teeters on them and drives to the net.

    I will go out on a ridiculous limb and suggest that he is already the best skating Oiler D, with and without the puck.

    What’s interesting to my untrained eye is that there is still a hint of awkwardness in his stride, which I suspect is related to gangly teenager syndrome. Once he irons that out, I believe he will be a McDavid level skater.

    Also, we are going to fall in love with his D. That long stick is such a pain in the aaa for opposing forwards.

  6. Justenvogt says:

    Bling,

    How’s the pass out of the d-zone looking?

  7. chrisco stu says:

    Bling,
    Also, we are going to fall in love with his D. That long stick is such a pain in the aaa for opposing forwards.
    Are we still doing phrasing?

  8. Clarkenstein says:

    Pouliot is another in a long list of players where you wonder how they would have done in another organization.

  9. Reja says:

    chrisco stu:
    I was thinking about this last night, and I don’t believe that Ken Holland has extended an offer to JP beyond his initial qualifying offer. I believe that it’s Holland’s preference that he play in Europe this year and that Jesse’s repeated trade requests and statements coupled with the fact that he hasn’t signed with a European team yet is his attempt to avoid Europe at all costs. I don’t think that Holland sees room for him on the roster and I’m not sure that I do either. Nothing is final with Jesse, but I can’t see him anywhere in the nhl this year. Whether or not he is next year is entirely up to him.

    Sometimes when you mess with the bull you get the horn.

  10. Bling says:

    Justenvogt,

    The highlight package I watched did not have much outlet passing in it, so I can’t comment on that, unfortunately.

  11. Bling says:

    chrisco stu,

    Lol point taken

  12. chrisco stu says:

    Bling,

    I hope you take my comment in the spirit in which it was intended. I read your post the dirty way and just about spit my coffee out!

  13. Todd Macallan says:

    Ben:
    …Rosebud…*dies*

    / thread, and on the first post too. Impressive and hilarious.

  14. Silver Streak says:

    chrisco stu:
    Bling,
    Also, we are going to fall in love with his D. That long stick is such a pain in the aaa for opposing forwards.
    Are we still doing phrasing?

    I read it that way as well….great minds think alike…LOL and still laughing.

  15. hags9k says:

    Ah what the hell, sign MP to a PTO.

    I remain of the opinion that the leadership group in the locker room shoulders some of the blame for the JP situation. New GM. New Coach. We can’t know what we can’t know, but if he was happy with his teammates in the room, I don’t think we would be here.

    Too bad, we really needed that 4th overall pick to cash.

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    hags9k:
    Ah what the hell, sign MP to a PTO.

    I remain of the opinion that the leadership group in the locker room shoulders some of the blame for the JP situation.New GM.New Coach.We can’t know what we can’t know, but if he was happy with his teammates in the room, I don’t think we would be here.

    Too bad, we really needed that 4th overall pick to cash.

    I’m always blown away by the notion that a player won’t sign an NHL contract because he doesn’t like the other players in the room or they don’t like him. If this is truly the reason, then JP is motivated by other things than actually making the NHL. In the scope of challenges and roadblocks it takes to become an NHL player, this would barely register as a speed bump. If JP isn’t coming here because he doesn’t feel like he’s one of the gang, his career is over before it starts.

  17. Reja says:

    hags9k:
    Ah what the hell, sign MP to a PTO.

    I remain of the opinion that the leadership group in the locker room shoulders some of the blame for the JP situation.New GM.New Coach.We can’t know what we can’t know, but if he was happy with his teammates in the room, I don’t think we would be here.

    Too bad, we really needed that 4th overall pick to cash.

    So did Pete Todd Craig Hitch etc

  18. Durag says:

    Ben:
    …Rosebud…*dies*

    Antoine….

  19. Andy Dufresne says:

    Ben:
    …Rosebud…*dies*

    LOL….haaaaa!…OMG….Thats Funny!

    Unfortunately, you cannot “end thread” on the first post of the day.

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m always blown away by the notion that a player won’t sign an NHL contract because he doesn’t like the other players in the room or they don’t like him. If this is truly the reason, then JP is motivated by other things than actually making the NHL.In the scope of challenges and roadblocks it takes to become an NHL player, this would barely register as a speed bump. If JP isn’t coming here because he doesn’t feel like he’s one of the gang, his career is over before it starts.

    That’s what I don’t understand. And why does he think some other team (ANY other team) will be 100% different?? That CAN’T be the reason.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    Bling: It doesn’t have to be the end, and often it’s just the beginning.

    Agreed. Its the begining of the end for JP.

  22. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Ah yes, the cautionary tale of MAP.

    So many lessons embedded that it behooves every Oiler fan to regard the past so as to not repeat those same mistakes in the future.

    — zoomed by an elite line mate in juniour (none other than Sidney Crosby),
    — well rounded but no elite skillset,
    — injuries galore,
    — trading DOWN in a historically deep draft and leaving talent on the board,
    — lack of development plan. Such a shame the EIG couldn’t/wouldn’t afford a proper farm system,
    — improper talent assessment in the big leagues

    I was nearly frothing at the mouth when Brodziak was traded and Glencross allowed to walk. Once Cogliano was traded instead of Gagner (sorry Samwise) I was already getting numb.

    Unfortunately we’ve seen this movie again recently with a ream of youngsters, JP and KY the most recent. For all ChiaPete did to rebuild the farm system — and he did — they didn’t have the patience required for the top prospects to percolate properly. Hopefully Old Dutch follows his established history of developing talent and that disastrous cycle of marinating talent in the deep end finally stops.

  23. Coiler says:

    LT, I appreciate today’s post and the message you’re getting across to the masses.

    I think however, that we can’t readily compare the situations between Jesse and Pouliot as being the same. The game has changed significantly since that time; player skillsets, coaching, player’s attitudes, player’s approach to the game, salaries, etc…

    It wasn’t for a lack of want or motivation that derailed Pouliot’s career. It seems, and I know it’s pure speculation, the drive in Jesse doesn’t seem to be there.

    Common threads between the two? A bad organization who have a terrible record at development. Coaching styles that waver from one extreme to another. They all have an impact on a team and specifically player no doubt.

    But at the end of the day, when an inept GM ties his own organization’s hands by making moronic promises, when I see that two veteran coaches question the kid’s drive and overall hockey sense and employ him the same way, then I start to reach certain conclusions that can’t be overlooked. Many can question the methodologies used by McLennan and Hitchcock but they have been in the game for a long time. They coached rookies and they’ve coached superstars. They have long track records of winning and I’m certain they knew what it took to win and what players needed to do to achieve those goals. When a player doesn’t buy in or thinks he doesn’t need to because of his cache at 18 or 19 then that’s on the player.

    I think you’re right in that the Oilers will be losing a talented winger who could have done something special for the team. But I’d rather have someone who wants to buy in, who wants to play for the team than someone who at this point doesn’t. My hope is that he lights it up in Europe and Holland will be able to recoup something of value for him.

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    chrisco stu:
    Bling,
    Also, we are going to fall in love with his D. That long stick is such a pain in the aaa for opposing forwards.
    Are we still doing phrasing?

    Long Stick? Pain in the ass? is that sort of talk allowed in here? 🙂

  25. Andy Dufresne says:

    Reja: Sometimes when you mess with the bull you get the horn.

    I LIKE it!

    Kenny “The Horn” Holland

    #kennysagrinder

  26. JJS says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Ah yes, the cautionary tale of MAP.

    So many lessons embedded that it behooves every Oiler fan to regard the past so as to not repeat thosesame mistakes in the future.

    — zoomed by an elite line mate in juniour (none other than Sidney Crosby),
    — well rounded but no elite skillset,
    — injuries galore,
    — trading DOWN in a historically deep draft and leaving talent on the board,
    — lack of development plan.Such a shame the EIG couldn’t/wouldn’t afford a proper farm system,
    — improper talent assessment in the big leagues

    I was nearly frothing at the mouth when Brodziak was traded and Glencross allowed to walk.Once Cogliano was traded instead of Gagner (sorry Samwise) I was already getting numb.

    Unfortunately we’ve seen this movie again recently with a ream of youngsters, JP and KY the most recent.For all ChiaPete did to rebuild the farm system — and he did — they didn’t have the patience required for the top prospects to percolate properly.Hopefully Old Dutch follows his established history of developing talent and that disastrous cycle of marinating talent in the deep end finally stops.

    I believe he was drafted prior to playing on Crosby’s line. This is a common misconception.

    Similarly, did the Phaneuf hit occur after his draft?

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    ArmchairGM: That’s what I don’t understand. And why does he think some other team (ANY other team) will be 100% different?? That CAN’T be the reason.

    I would think it’s something else as well. Not sure what it could be.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: This is precisely why I was hoping that they would get an impact forward with the #8 pick last June. Too bad Cozens didn’t last until then…

    Time will tell but they may have drafted an impact d-man.

    By the time the potential impact forward (Cozens or other) is ready to be impactful, the team may have other more pressing needs. Hence the premise re: not drafting by need in the top half of the first round.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: Your comment on Khaira is not well thought out in my opinion. The coaches used Khaira in many different roles and even up the lineup on the wing. He was never given more than five or six games at a time at centre. It just so happens his size, skating etc were more valuable to the team other places.

    Sure, his minutes at center have been inconsistent and his linemates middling – at the same time, he never performed well in those minutes and has performed better as a winger with another player in the middle.

    This could change if given minutes with Granlund and Archibald, for example, however it doesn’t change the fact that, up and till now, he’s had little to no success as an NHL center and penciling him in at 3C seems to be a stretch.

  30. Rube Foster says:

    Bling:

    I still have a lot of patience for JP.

    Lots of people seem to have forgotten what it means to be young and frustrated. It doesn’t have to be the end, and often it’s just the beginning.

    Mr. Bling,

    Of all that has been written in this place regarding “Les Affaire Puljujarvi”, your last two sentences just may be the wisest.

    LT is correct, of all the players in the Oilers organization 21 years and younger, Jesse Puljujarvi remains the single player most capable of making an impact in the NHL this year. It appears to me that Mr. Holland recognizes this as well. We wait.

  31. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Time will tell but they may have drafted an impact d-man.

    By the time the potential impact forward (Cozens or other) is ready to be impactful, the team may have other more pressing needs. Hence the premise re: not drafting by need in the top half of the first round.
    *************************************************************************************************************
    Nearly universal consensus Oilers had one of the worst bottom 9 forwards ever assembled last year.

    Lefty and righty as a thing our new coach just re-affirmed.

    Klefbom just turned 26
    Nurse – is 24

    I wonder if the KC Chiefs will draft a QB next year?

    In the meantime, as LT just mentioned our best forward prospect does not want to play here.

    And Connor McDavid and Drai will have to play with Chiasson and 31 year old James Neal.

    God Speed Connor.

  32. GBandQ says:

    i often wonder what MAP might have done in the Stanley run, esp in the finals. Rem the Gem wasn’t particularly effective, and GG was playing less than 8 minutes a night. There was an opportunity there… sigh.

  33. geowal says:

    Next up for tomorrow, LT tells us why he hates Laddy Smid! 😁

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    geowal:
    Next up for tomorrow, LT tells us why he hates Laddy Smid!

    Nah. It’s “The Search For Fernando Pisani”. Possibly lots of ABBA references.

  35. tileguy says:

    Can we agree that if Yamamoto spends the whole year in the A (healthy) and does not produce he is officially a bust? Produce defined as 20 goals, 30 points?

  36. godot10 says:

    Bling:
    I watched some Broberg video, and was just mesmerized by his skating.

    Not just the speed — which is spectacular — but his edges are incredible as well.

    There are sequences where you feel like he’s going too fast down that wing, that he’ll run out of real estate and have to circle the net. But those edges! He teeters on them and drives to the net.

    I will go out on a ridiculous limb and suggest that he is already the best skating Oiler D, with and without the puck.

    What’s interesting to my untrained eye is that there is still a hint of awkwardness in his stride, which I suspect is related to gangly teenager syndrome. Once he irons that out, I believe he will be a McDavid level skater.

    Also, we are going to fall in love with his D. That long stick is such a pain in the aaa for opposing forwards.

    He certainly has this quality! -)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGFToiLtXro

  37. godot10 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    e.

    — zoomed by an elite line mate in juniour (none other than Sidney Crosby),

    The lie that refuses to die.

    Pouliot did not play a single second with Crosby before Pouliot was drafted. He only played with Crosby after he was draft by the Oilers.

  38. Durag says:

    tileguy:
    Can we agree that if Yamamoto spends the whole year in the A (healthy) and does not produce he is officially a bust? Produce defined as 20 goals, 30 points?

    Why do we need to do that?

  39. tileguy says:

    Durag,

    To add to the discussion about prospects, which may lead to the way prospects are treated by the Oilers, whick may lead to….. well you get it, it’s August.

  40. Dunduress says:

    tileguy,

    A line in the sand is great for seeing if a prospect had a disappointing season or not, but Yams was on pace for about 25 goals and 45 points last year (assuming a full season). He produced quite well last year and I think improving on that would be promising. Although I am hopeful for a PPG pace…

  41. Side says:

    tileguy:
    Durag,

    To add to the discussion about prospects, which may lead to the way prospects are treated by the Oilers, whick may lead to….. well you get it, it’s August.

    KY discussions have been made many times over the years and I’m not sure why inserting an arbitrary timeline and arbitrary amount of goals and assists to confirm whether he is a bust or not a bust, adds much to the discussion.

    I am more curious to know why you think KY (or any player in KY’s situation/age group) would be a bust based on the criteria you have assigned.

  42. Reja says:

    Rube Foster: Mr. Bling,

    Of all that has been written in this place regarding “Les Affaire Puljujarvi”,your last two sentences just may be the wisest.

    LT is correct, of all the players in the Oilers organization 21 years and younger, Jesse Puljujarvi remains the single player most capable of making an impact in the NHL this year. It appears to me that Mr. Holland recognizes this as well.We wait.

    Are you still a prospect with a new GM when your on your second contract. I could be wrong but Holland has Benson the hard working skilled high hockey IQ and a team leader from all accounts rated higher then a player that seems to have no desire to play for my team. I’m very bullish on Benson and expect to see him in Oilers silks for many years.

  43. Durag says:

    Side: KY discussions have been made many times over the years and I’m not sure why inserting an arbitrary timeline and arbitrary amount of goals and assists to confirm whether he is a bust or not a bust, adds much to the discussion.

    I am more curious to know why you think KY (or any player in KY’s situation/age group) would be a bust based on the criteria you have assigned.

    Yeah this is my thinking. A sub-20 goal season would be disappointing, but I’d be far from calling it a day on him.

  44. Dunduress says:

    Dunduress,

    More specifically, a healthy season for Yams, with a 25 goal (or even 20) and 45 point pace would be the minimum I would like to see from Yams. Preferably he scores at a PPG pace, gets recalled, shows more offense than almost every winger on the team, and never looks back.

  45. tileguy says:

    Side,

    I am just curious myself why we never see his name on these discussion boards anymore. No RE from our host, no hype like we use to read one and two years ago, it’s all quiet on the western front concerning our 22 OV 5’8 150 lb prospect. Seems like he is the forgotten man. But thank you for seeking out my arbitrary thoughts.

  46. tileguy says:

    Durag,

    Would you call it a day on him if he gets seriously hurt again this season, something like a seperated shoulder that may be a comment on his size/durability?

  47. Rube Foster says:

    Reja: Are you still a prospect with a new GM when your on your second contract. I could be wrong but Holland has Bensonthe hard working skilled high hockey IQ and a team leader from all accounts rated higher then a player that seems to have no desire to play for my team. I’m very bullish on Benson and expect to see him in Oilers silks for many years.

    Reja,

    You appear to exist in a binary world that somehow insists on pitting Benson against Puljujarvi as a one or the other proposition.

    I too am bullish on Benson, however, I believe the Oilers would be best served to have both Benson and Puljujarvi as assets to develop for the future. My hope is that they both are productive Oilers by the 20/21 season.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’ll never understand why we’re always so keen to blame player development when the simpler explanation (Occams Razor) is just that the Oilers sucked at drafting for decades.

    Most guys that busted here are still busts elsewhere. The exceptions Cogliano, Schultz, Petry, Dubnyk, etc. got better shelter elsewhere. To me, that’s the one development criticism that holds water. They didn’t shelter their youth enough. But they were completely bereft of depth and were selling potential as hope.

    Why were they bereft of depth? Decades of shitty drafting. Voila, root cause identified.

  49. Durag says:

    tileguy:
    Durag,

    Would you call it a day on him if he gets seriously hurt again this season, something like a seperated shoulder that may be a comment on his size/durability?

    Probably not. Given his size I thought he wouldn’t really emerge in the NHL until he was around 22.

    Of course, because he was drafted by the Oilers, he was in the NHL at 19 and 10 days or something, so of course we get to factor in things like wasted development years now.

    edit: and by “calling it a day” I mean like not offering him a second contract.

  50. Dunduress says:

    Rube Foster,

    Rube my thoughts on Pulju mirror yours. Thanks for consistently bringing the discussion to reasonable.

    I sincerely hope that Pulju plays for the Oil this year and gains some sort of traction.

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’d love to see Yamamoto break out this season with a cool set of slippery moves, because that “KY Jelly” nickname is just waiting to be a thing.

  52. Durag says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’d love to see Yamamoto break out this season with a cool set of slippery moves, because that “KY Jelly” nickname is just waiting to be a thing.

    Or he becomes great at setting up teammates for one-timers from 20+ feet out. No need to jam it in when you’ve got KY!

  53. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’d love to see Yamamoto break out this season with a cool set of slippery moves, because that “KY Jelly” nickname is just waiting to be a thing.

    As long as he doesn’t become a 4th line grinder, nickname KY Jam.

    There’s a difference between jelly and jam. Anyone know what it is?

  54. Durag says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I’ve never jellied in a rebound! (PG edition)

  55. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Time will tell but they may have drafted an impact d-man.

    By the time the potential impact forward (Cozens or other) is ready to be impactful, the team may have other more pressing needs. Hence the premise re: not drafting by need in the top half of the first round.

    One year from now the team will have different needs? Unlikely. Have you seen Holland’s resume? He’s not exactly a quick turnaround artist.

  56. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’ll never understand why we’re always so keen to blame player development when the simpler explanation (Occams Razor) is just that the Oilers sucked at drafting for decades.

    Don’t draft an amateur prospect zoomed by Crosby is the lesson with Pouliot, and yup, injuries stunt development.

    Most guys that busted here are still busts elsewhere. The exceptions Cogliano, Schultz, Petry, Dubnyk, etc. got better shelter elsewhere. To me, that’s the one development criticism that holds water. They didn’t shelter their youth enough. But they were completely bereft of depth and were selling potential as hope.

    Why were they bereft of depth? Decades of shitty drafting. Voila, root cause identified.

    Don’t draft Debrincat because he’s was zoomed by McDavid, right? I think I’m getting it. 🙂

    The Oilers are bereft of depth also because they sold at ten cents on the dollar over and over and over again.

    Brodziak trade: The Oilers package a 25-year old Brodziak and a 6th round pick 2009 for a fourth-round draft pick, 2009. The wild sign him to a three-year contract. Over the next three years, he puts up 32, 37 and 44 points.

    Cogliano trade: Oilers trade 26-year-old Cogliano for a 2nd round draft pick. Over the next 3 seasons, he scores 13, 13, and 21 goals for the Ducks.

    Petry trade: Oilers trade 27-year-old Petry for a conditional 5/4rth and a 3rd round draft pick. For real a top four RHS puck-moving d in the prime of his career traded and they don’t even get a good prospect back or 2nd round draft pick back.

    Schultz trade: Oilers trade 25-year-old Schultz for a 3rd round draft pick. The following season Schultz puts up 51 points and + 27 for the Penguins.

    Dubnyk trade: starting goalie for aged 4rth liner.

    Now there were lots of mitigating factors in all of the trades like waiting too long to sell (Petry), lack of depth in lineup impacting players’ value, negative image of Oilers players, Eastern bias, etc, but even the above 5 trades represent a lot of bleeding of talent and poor returns in trades.

    Unfortunately, as well know the trend of bleeding value in trades only worsened markedly under Chiarelli.

  57. LadiesloveSmid says:

    geowal:
    Next up for tomorrow, LT tells us why he hates Laddy Smid!

    LT’s love Smid

  58. Andy Dufresne says:

    Rube Foster: Jesse Puljujarvi remains the single player most capable of making an impact in the NHL

    Agreed. He already has. A huge negative impact.

  59. Todd Macallan says:

    Pens sign Marino, Oilers now get their 6th rounder in 2021

  60. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ryan,

    Bad trades definitely a factor too.

    I retracted the Pouliot/Crosby zoom meme.

  61. Jethro Tull says:

    Durag:
    Jethro Tull,

    I’ve never jellied in a rebound! (PG edition)

    Correct! There’s a non-PG version? 😉

  62. Gerta Rauss says:

    Jethro Tull,

    No seeds/solids in jelly..?

  63. Gerta Rauss says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Pens sign Marino, Oilers now get their 6th rounder in 2021

    Plan the parade!!

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    DuragNo need to jam it in when you’ve got KY!

    Unless it’s a backdoor feed….

  65. ArmchairGM says:

    Todd Macallan:
    Pens sign Marino, Oilers now get their 6th rounder in 2021

    WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOoooooooooooooo!

  66. geowal says:

    LadiesloveSmid: LT’s love Smid

    I was waiting for you to chime in!

  67. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Time will tell but they may have drafted an impact d-man.

    The truth is, I think they did draft an impact defenseman. I’ve been high on Broberg since well before the draft, before he was spoken of much on this forum. The trouble is, it doesn’t matter how many young impact defensemen you have if your forward corps is held together by duct tape and shoe string.

    Balance. It’s a thing.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    McNuge:
    Second! LT is Pulu still considered a prospect? Hasn’t he played enough to move past that label? To me, Benson is our best forward prospect, but you’re scaring me with the Pouliot injury comparison.

    On defence we only need 2 or 3 of our many prospects to turn out.

    I would consider a struggling player who was 20 the last time he played a hockey game to still be a prospect.

    Yes, at this point, I’d have to agree with you on Benson, however, at the same time, if Yamamoto had played the entire 2018/19 season in the AHL (as he should have) and not had the injury issues, I am confident he’d be have been right up there with Benson near PPG

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Haas numbers this past year in the top Swiss league were very similar to MAP’s in the same league – perhaps MAP should be a candidate for 3C?

  70. CallighenMan says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Ah yes, the cautionary tale of MAP.

    So many lessons embedded that it behooves every Oiler fan to regard the past so as to not repeat thosesame mistakes in the future.

    — zoomed by an elite line mate in juniour (none other than Sidney Crosby),
    — well rounded but no elite skillset,
    — injuries galore,
    — trading DOWN in a historically deep draft and leaving talent on the board,
    — lack of development plan.Such a shame the EIG couldn’t/wouldn’t afford a proper farm system,
    — improper talent assessment in the big leagues

    I was nearly frothing at the mouth when Brodziak was traded and Glencross allowed to walk.Once Cogliano was traded instead of Gagner (sorry Samwise) I was already getting numb.

    Unfortunately we’ve seen this movie again recently with a ream of youngsters, JP and KY the most recent.For all ChiaPete did to rebuild the farm system — and he did — they didn’t have the patience required for the top prospects to percolate properly.Hopefully Old Dutch follows his established history of developing talent and that disastrous cycle of marinating talent in the deep end finally stops.

    Except that he wasn’t zoomed by Crosby. He was drafted before Crosby was on the team.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Justenvogt:
    Bling,

    How’s the pass out of the d-zone looking?

    Was very pleasantly surprised in the two Canadian games that I watched – he was a very good transitioner of the puck by pass and also showed great vision making some smart plays out of the defensive zone. Two games against kids, yes, but I don’t have concern about his ability to pass – he’s a plus passer at this level and will, of course, improve over time and with development.

    He has proven, once again, to be elite against his peer group and I can’t wait to see what he does in Skellefteå this coming season

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    chrisco stu:
    I was thinking about this last night, and I don’t believe that Ken Holland has extended an offer to JP beyond his initial qualifying offer. I believe that it’s Holland’s preference that he play in Europe this year and that Jesse’s repeated trade requests and statements coupled with the fact that he hasn’t signed with a European team yet is his attempt to avoid Europe at all costs. I don’t think that Holland sees room for him on the roster and I’m not sure that I do either. Nothing is final with Jesse, but I can’t see him anywhere in the nhl this year. Whether or not he is next year is entirely up to him.

    I don’t think there has been an offer above the QO because the Puljujarvi camp has shown zero desire to negotiate a contract – they haven’t spoken contract.

  73. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’ll never understand why we’re always so keen to blame player development when the simpler explanation (Occams Razor) is just that the Oilers sucked at drafting for decades.

    Most guys that busted here are still busts elsewhere. The exceptions Cogliano, Schultz, Petry, Dubnyk, etc. got better shelter elsewhere. To me, that’s the one development criticism that holds water. They didn’t shelter their youth enough. But they were completely bereft of depth and were selling potential as hope.

    Why were they bereft of depth? Decades of shitty drafting. Voila, root cause identified.

    This is, in a much more succinct way, what I said a couple days ago.

  74. Revolved says:

    Jesse Puljujarvi is turning into a sad story indeed. The idea that such a promising young career could peak at the WJHC is painful, but may be turning into reality before our eyes. We just have to hope that last year’s results were due to injury or some other one off, and that he puts in the effort to get up off the mat wherever he plays this year.

    These are some of Jessie’s results from his three years in Edmonton

    TOI/GP – P/60 – S/60 – IPP – CF%Rel – GF%Rel – PDO – OZS%
    16-17 – 10:18 – 1.45 – 7.27 – 63.64 – +2.75 – +20.92 – 1.041 – 65.85
    17-18 – 12:32 – 1.25 – 9.27 – 56.67 – +1.84 – +0.680 – 0.998 – 50.00
    18-19 – 11:22 – 0.80 – 5.74 – 53.85 — -2.20 – -13.48 – 0.958 – 51.65

    Regression like this is not fun to see, and if he was 29 I would just say forget about it. Unfortunately, there are few teams that need a full potential Puljujarvi as much as the Oilers, and we seem to be the one place out of the running. Let’s hope he lays waste to the KHL and comes back confident and with something to prove next year. Even if we just want to see Jessie be happy, Holland is holding all the cards and he should stick to his guns until Puljujarvi earns his way to a better place.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Ah yes, the cautionary tale of MAP.

    So many lessons embedded that it behooves every Oiler fan to regard the past so as to not repeat thosesame mistakes in the future.

    — zoomed by an elite line mate in juniour (none other than Sidney Crosby),

    Not to nitpick on one inconsequential point, however, this is a huge misconception among Oiler fans.

    MAP was drafted to the Oilers after putting up over a PPG before Crosby was on the team.

    There was zero Crosby zoom in his draft year.

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    McSorley:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Time will tell but they may have drafted an impact d-man.

    By the time the potential impact forward (Cozens or other) is ready to be impactful, the team may have other more pressing needs. Hence the premise re: not drafting by need in the top half of the first round.
    *************************************************************************************************************
    Nearly universal consensus Oilers had one of the worst bottom 9 forwards ever assembled last year.

    Lefty and righty as a thing our new coach just re-affirmed.

    Klefbom just turned 26
    Nurse – is 24

    I wonder if the KC Chiefs will draft a QB next year?

    In the meantime, as LT just mentioned our best forwardprospect does not want to play here.

    And Connor McDavid and Drai will have to play with Chiasson and 31 year old James Neal.

    God Speed Connor.

    How would drafting a forward have changed who Connor plays with this year?

    Not to mention, James Neal is 15th in the NHL in goals in the last 10 years and has had one bad season – he may suck or he may be a legit top 6 goal scorer, which he has been every year of his career except one.

    Leftie/Rightie is a thing and I’m on board. At the same time current depth of left and right shot d-men is meaningless when talking about a player that will impact the lineup in no less than 3 years.

    For all we know Nurse is traded next off-season for an impact forward, depleting the leftorium and adding an impact forward – one move, changes things materially.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Can we agree that if Yamamoto spends the whole year in the A (healthy) and does not produce he is officially a bust? Produce defined as 20 goals, 30 points?

    There is nothing to indicate that he won’t produce given what he showed this past season as a Condor.

    It took him some time to gain traction after assigned (as it did the previous year when finally assigned to the WHL) but, once he did, he proven to be a high end AHL player. He started to drive offence and create scoring chances consistently playing with the likes of Tyler Vesel and Luke Esposito. The production then started to come.

    I am confident that, if he was healthy and played a full AHL season last year, his production would have been right up there with Benson and I’m confident, if healthy, he’ll be at or over PPG this coming season.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Are you still a prospect with a new GM when your on your second contract. I could be wrong but Holland has Bensonthe hard working skilled high hockey IQ and a team leader from all accounts rated higher then a player that seems to have no desire to play for my team. I’m very bullish on Benson and expect to see him in Oilers silks for many years.

    The contract kicking in at 18 is a pretty important factor if “number of contracts” is used as a threshold.

    Puljujarvi is about a month older than Benson and younger than Marody – both universally included as prospects.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Side,

    I am just curious myself why we never see his name on these discussion boards anymore. No RE from our host, no hype like we use to read one and two years ago, it’s all quiet on the western front concerning our 22 OV 5’8 150 lb prospect. Seems like he is the forgotten man. But thank you for seeking out my arbitrary thoughts.

    I think its fairly universally agreed that he needs some solid AHL development time this year and the organization seems to agree as well given they re-assigned him to the AHL last season and, since that point, due to injury, he hasn’t received that time.

    Its somewhat assumed he’ll be a Condor come October.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    tileguy:
    Durag,

    Would you call it a day on him if he gets seriously hurt again this season, something like a seperated shoulder that may be a comment on his size/durability?

    Would we call it a day on McDavid is he gets seriously injured again this season? I mean, he’s had two major injuries in four NHL seasons. The only reason he didn’t miss a huge chunk of games last season wast timing of injury.

  81. GMB3 says:

    It seems crazy to me we passed on a guy who scored 72 goals this year in the draft. He’s going to break the u19 record for goals in the NCAA

  82. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    JJS,

    godot10,

    OriginalPouzar,

    CallighenMan,

    I stand corrected, gentlemen. Thank you.

    I do think my other points are valid, however. This organization won’t turn things around if they can’t get out of their own way. The potential impact of Holland’s leadership in that regard is one thing that I’m very optimistic about.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: One year from now the team will have different needs? Unlikely. Have you seen Holland’s resume? He’s not exactly a quick turnaround artist.

    1) no certainty that whatever forward would have been drafted will be NHL ready for next let alone the top 6 – sure, we can project but there is no certainty with prospects

    2) could very well – trading Nurse next off-season for a top 6 forward certainly changes the dynamic of the “leftorium” and the skilled forward depth – one move as a 1 for 1 let alone potential multi-player moves or even multiple player moves.

  84. ChiliChunk says:

    from mono to pubis and back again

    LT I hope you get royalties when MAP’s future autobiography is published with that awesome title.

  85. Wonder Llama says:

    I know a girl who thinks of ghosts

    She’ll make you breakfast; she’ll make you toast

    But she don’t use butter and she don’t use cheese

    She don’t use jelly or any of these

    She uses Vaseline….

    “She Don’t Use Jelly” by Flaming Lips

    You’re welcome

  86. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: There

    Benson lost a 1 1/2 in development at the most crucial time it’s amazing and for me tells how much talent and desire this kid has Tippett’s going to love teaching him. If Benson was drafted top 10-12 which he might have been without his nasty injury ( health) would he get more love from the faithful. I’ve really noticed fans of all teams but Edmonton more so fixated on draft number we are finally going to hit on later picks.

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    Durag:
    Jethro Tull,

    I’ve never jellied in a rebound! (PG edition)

    I did once after a few too many whiskeys. The wife never lets me forget it.

  88. GMB3 says:

    Unpopular opinion: Kailer Yamamoto ends up being the toughest Oiler since Ales Hemsky

  89. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    Off topic, and if this has already been shared here my apologies, but man it’s heartbreaking.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/joe-murphy-the-no-1-pick-in-1986-nhl-draft-is-homeless-again-and-refusing-help/ar-AAFwtke

  90. hags9k says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m always blown away by the notion that a player won’t sign an NHL contract because he doesn’t like the other players in the room or they don’t like him. If this is truly the reason, then JP is motivated by other things than actually making the NHL.In the scope of challenges and roadblocks it takes to become an NHL player, this would barely register as a speed bump. If JP isn’t coming here because he doesn’t feel like he’s one of the gang, his career is over before it starts.

    I agree with most of what you are saying. I do think players factor in their fit in a dressing room, when it comes to contracts. Geez, look at the NBA!

    New GM, new coach, thin depth at RW and 3 good centers.
    Give me a better theory why he wants out.

  91. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Fuhr and Lowething.,

    TSN did a moving documentary on him when this came to light recently.

  92. OriginalPouzar says:

    I don’t think I have seen a high potential player’s development get effed completely with each of the organization, the player and the agent seemingly having major roles in the eff ups.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    A sixth tround pick is what it is but I’ll certainly take it for a player that wasn’t going to sign. The Oilers have seome decent tredning picks from the 6th and 7th rounds the last whiel:

    Patrik Siikanen – 7th rounder in 2018 – trending well and looks to play a material role for Finland at this year’s World Juniors

    Phil Kemp – 7th rounder in 2017 – definitely up arrows. Last cut from the US World Junior team in his draft plus 1 and made the team in draft plus 2 and ended up playing solid top 4 minutes. He’s earning himself an NHL contract and has some NHL potential – miles to go.

    Vincent Desharnais – 7th rounder in 2016 – I don’t know his story like I do Kemp’s but some have him rated near or higher than Kemp.

    The list would look better if Rasanen and McPhee didn’t have down years – I blame Boston College.

    Oh, and Maksimov was a 5th rounder – not quite 6th but another later pick that could impact the lineup and sooner.

  94. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed.

    Personally speaking, I think the narrative of the Oilers being atrocious at drafting and development is overblown. For example, there wasn’t likely to be any team that would have turned Jason Bonsignore into a superstar. More recently, the Oilers were keen on Mark McNeill but the Blackhawks saved them from that mistake. Had CHI drafted, say, Klefbom instead and we took McNeill, we’d be lamenting the fact that we “ruined” another prospect. Yet there’s a success story of draft and development right in front of us, in our top four, and we rarely hear people giving the team it’s due credit. Ditto Duby, Nurse, Eberle, and others. Many other teams miss and pick the wrong player, or whiff on development. We just don’t focus on that aspect so much because it’s not in our backyard.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: The truth is, I think they did draft an impact defenseman. I’ve been high on Broberg since well before the draft, before he was spoken of much on this forum. The trouble is, it doesn’t matter how many young impact defensemen you have if your forward corps is held together by duct tape and shoe string.

    Balance. It’s a thing.

    I don’t disagree with any of this. I simply don’t believe the top 10 of the draft is the place where future balance should be a consideration.

    As I said, one trade can change the perception of the lineup.

  96. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Don’t sleep on Mike Kesselring either. Up arrows since draft day (2018, round 6/164 overall).

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Revolved:
    Jesse Puljujarvi is turning into a sad story indeed. The idea that such a promising young career could peak at the WJHC is painful, but may be turning into reality before our eyes. We just have to hope that last year’s results were due to injury or some other one off, and that he puts in the effort to get up off the mat wherever he plays this year.

    These are some of Jessie’s results from his three years in Edmonton

    TOI/GP – P/60 – S/60 – IPP – CF%Rel – GF%Rel – PDO – OZS%
    16-17 –10:18 –1.45 – 7.27 – 63.64 – +2.75 – +20.92 – 1.041 – 65.85
    17-18 – 12:32 – 1.25 – 9.27 – 56.67 – +1.84 – +0.680 – 0.998 – 50.00
    18-19 – 11:22 – 0.80 – 5.74 – 53.85 — -2.20 – -13.48 – 0.958 – 51.65

    Regression like this is not fun to see, and if he was 29 I would just say forget about it. Unfortunately, there are few teams that need a full potential Puljujarvi as much as the Oilers, and we seem to be the one place out of the running. Let’s hope he lays waste to the KHL and comes back confident and with something to prove next year. Even if we just want to see Jessie be happy, Holland is holding all the cards and he should stick to his guns until Puljujarvi earns his way to a better place.

    Its ALL PDO and zone start related.

    Nope: Wristers/snapshots from just inside the blue line off the rush do NOT impact PDO negatively, not one iota………………

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: sad s

    but what about elite skating and wing span?

    14 orgs passed on this guy – he may very well make some look bad.

    I am fully comfortable with the Broberg pick.

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Benson lost a 1 1/2 in development at the most crucial time it’s amazing and for me tells how much talent and desire this kid has Tippett’s going to love teaching him. If Benson was drafted top 10-12 which he might have been without his nasty injury ( health) would he get more love from the faithful. I’ve really noticed fans of all teams but Edmonton more so fixated on draft number we are finally going to hit on later picks.

    Benson gets plenty of love – in fact, I would posit that amount of love he gets is consistent with, well, the amount of love he’s earned.

    I don’t know of a single Oiler fan that rates Puljujarvi ahead of Benson at this point.

    Discussing Jesse and his potential and where its at and if he should be added to the top 9 competition conversation does not discount Benson’s potential – He’s been projected as 1LW, 2LW, 3LW and Condor for October 2 by the fan-base but, aside for a rare exception, I don’t know of any Oiler fan that isn’t thinking he could very well be playing NHL games this season

    Yes, of course, if Benson didn’t lose that development time, things would likely look different – of course, he wouldn’t have been available at the beginning of the second round. He’s still working at getting his pre-injury, up for exceptional status like, skill back.

  100. Bag of Pucks says:

    Fuhr and Lowething.:
    Off topic, and if this has already been shared here my apologies, but man it’s heartbreaking.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/joe-murphy-the-no-1-pick-in-1986-nhl-draft-is-homeless-again-and-refusing-help/ar-AAFwtke

    That really really sucks. Very sad to read that.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Don’t sleep on Mike Kesselring either.Up arrows since draft day (2018, round 6/164 overall).

    Great post.

    Actually, he was one of the players I was specifically going to reference when I started the “research” for the post but totally missed him and forgot.

    From many accounts, in particular McCurdy and Staples, he looks to have taken a massive step year over year based on development camp. Not only has he filled out his massive frame but they’ve both stated, if we were told he’s the new first round pick, noone would have batted an eye.

    Development camp is what it is but he’s definitely a prospect of note.

    Of course a good 3 years before we talk contract, barring something totally unforseen.

  102. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Its ALL PDO and zone start related.

    Nope: Wristers/snapshots from just inside the blue line off the rush do NOT impact PDO negatively, not one iota………………

    I believe the number one factor is his refusal to go to the net combine that with McMuffin shots and not being in the same universe with his line mates regardless of who they were. I imagine this really pissed off the Coaching staff.

  103. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: That really really sucks. Very sad to read that.

    The Kid Line

  104. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Reja,

    Much of that lines up with what I saw, but I did also see some real chemistry starting to form with Nuge and JJ. He also looked decent with Strome, but that ship has certainly sailed.

    If he comes back there is a reasonable potential for unicorns, putting JJ-RNH-JP back together as a third line against the soft parade.

  105. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Looks like he’s committing to the NCAA route, so he’ll have four years at Northeastern (Benning’s alma matter) to matriculate.

  106. Reja says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Reja,

    Much of that lines up with what I saw, but I did also see some real chemistry starting to form with Nuge and JJ.He also looked decent with Strome, but that ship has certainly sailed.

    If he comes back there is a reasonable potential for unicorns, putting JJ-RNH-JP back together as a third line against the soft parade.

    He doesn’t want to come back and frankly I really think Holland has moved on from him unless Jesse’s camp does a 180 can’t see it happening.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    Reja,

    Much of that lines up with what I saw, but I did also see some real chemistry starting to form with Nuge and JJ.He also looked decent with Strome, but that ship has certainly sailed.

    If he comes back there is a reasonable potential for unicorns, putting JJ-RNH-JP back together as a third line against the soft parade.

    That line looks lovely and I do think we can see a three center set. I’m fairly confident Granlund and Archibald are pencilled in around that third line (Nygard in the conversation as is Sam).

    Perhaps the “4th” line is JJ/Marody/JP.

    Lots of inexperience so probably doesn’t work.

  108. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Great post.

    Actually, he was one of the players I was specifically going to reference when I started the “research” for the post but totally missed him and forgot.

    From many accounts, in particular McCurdy and Staples, he looks to have taken a massive step year over year based on development camp.Not only has he filled out his massive frame but they’ve both stated, if we were told he’s the new first round pick, noone would have batted an eye.

    Development camp is what it is but he’s definitely a prospect of note.

    Of course a good 3 years before we talk contract, barring something totally unforseen.

    When thinking of players who would be recent comparables, Colton Parayko came to mind. Late bloomer, both grew a lot later in their teens. Kesselring could be on a similar development pathObviously the odds are against that, but Parayko was passed over in his draft year and put up much better #’S in his second year of eligibility.

    There are parallels and obviously that would be the best case scenario, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility

  109. GMB3 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Looks like he’s committing to the NCAA route, so he’ll have four years at Northeastern (Benning’s alma matter) to matriculate.

    Northeastern is also Josh Manson’s alma mater, and Jamie Oleksiak

  110. Lowetide says:

    tileguy:
    Side,

    I am just curious myself why we never see his name on these discussion boards anymore. No RE from our host, no hype like we use to read one and two years ago, it’s all quiet on the western front concerning our 22 OV 5’8 150 lb prospect. Seems like he is the forgotten man. But thank you for seeking out my arbitrary thoughts.

    I actually wrote about him just the other day.

    https://theathletic.com/1106490/2019/08/01/lowetide-kailer-yamamoto-has-the-talent-to-win-a-job-with-the-oilers-on-merit-if-hes-healthy/

    As for the overall RE, I’m still basically at the time on ice stage and there’s just so many variables. Ideally you have far more certainty than we have at this time. I’ll have the RE but it will be late August for sure.

  111. Glovjuice says:

    Wonder Llama:
    I know a girl who thinks of ghosts

    She’ll make you breakfast; she’ll make you toast

    But she don’t use butter and she don’t use cheese

    She don’t use jelly or any of these

    She uses Vaseline….

    “She Don’t Use Jelly” by Flaming Lips

    You’re welcome

    Bam. I like. Went to their show at WEM in a disasterous state but it was one hell of a fun time 😀

  112. Reja says:

    Side: KY discussions have been made many times over the years and I’m not sure why inserting an arbitrary timeline and arbitrary amount of goals and assists to confirm whether he is a bust or not a bust, adds much to the discussion.

    I am more curious to know why you think KY (or any player in KY’s situation/age group) would be a bust based on the criteria you have assigned.

    Because he’s always hurt. For him to be effective he needs to be relentless and aggressive and so far when he plays that style he gets hurt.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Is he “always hurt”? He missed some games here or there in his junior career, at almost every player does in Major Junior and Professional hockey.

    His last season of junior was only 40 games but he missed time being with the Oilers and the World Junior Team.

    He was banged up this past year for real but I’m not sure his wrist injury has anything to do with stature.

  114. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: Because he’s always hurt. For him to be effective heneeds to be relentless and aggressive and so far when he plays that style he gets hurt.

    I’m hoping the new regime drops the macho meme.

    Yama needs to be relentless and he has to be full motor 24/7.

    But it’s pointless for him to try to win his battles with physicality, he won’t. His brain and skill is the only way.

    To me Larsson is in the same boat. He stated when he came that the team needed him to be the ass kicker on D.

    The thing is he’s not really that big in terms of his weight to height ratio. And I think the wear and tear are taking away from the subtle but really effective game he can play.

    Let the 215-220 pound guys be the bangers. It’s no effort because they are bigger than almost every forward in the league.

    Larsson will never be a ‘puck mover ‘ but he can pass and he can really get pucks back. Let him play his natural game and resign at a decent salary, enjoy relative health, and reap the rewards when the chips are down.

    He also has a nice sneaky shot IMO.

  115. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Is he “always hurt”?He missed some games here or there in his junior career, at almost every player does in Major Junior and Professional hockey.

    His last season of junior was only 40 games but he missed time being with the Oilers and the World Junior Team.

    He was banged up this past year for real but I’m not sure his wrist injury has anything to do with stature.

    If he does well and plays consistent in Bakersfield he definitely will be back in the fold after Christmas.

  116. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: but what about elite skating and wing span?

    14 orgs passed on this guy – he may very well make some look bad.

    I am fully comfortable with the Broberg pick.

    Sure, it is what it is, but I look at our prospect pipeline and I don’t really see any forwards who are projecting to be difference makers. Obviously Benson or Marody could “pop” (or KY) and produce with skill, but I don’t think at 8 the difference in talent is the same as taking BPA first overall. I know you feel differently.

    I know Holland said he had him as his BPA other than one forward outside of the top 2, but I’m not sure how much that really means. Passing up a historic goal scorer when you have zero secondary scoring seems too much of the “smartest man in the room” type thinking we’ve seen so often with this org. I could be totally wrong, and I hope I am.

  117. Glovjuice says:

    Hello. Is there anybody out there?

  118. Glovjuice says:

    Just nod if you can hear me.

  119. Glovjuice says:

    You have to be trusted by the people you lie to.

  120. Glovjuice says:

    This is a good left d:

    Nurse
    Klefbum (that’s hot)
    Broberg
    Samarukov

    I like. Well, 1-2 will be Brober and Sammy in two years when I am fucking 50 (take that effn OP). Just need a 1 RD as Bouch is not that guy. Fuck. We still need that 1Rd. Gerbils on a wheel we are.

  121. Rube Foster says:

    Dunduress:
    Rube Foster,

    Rube my thoughts on Pulju mirror yours. Thanks for consistently bringing the discussion to reasonable.

    I sincerely hope that Pulju plays for the Oil this year and gains some sort of traction.

    Muchos Gracias Amigo!

    #JesseResurrection2019

  122. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Glovjuice:
    You have to be trusted by the people you lie to.

    It’s a hard time of year. Nothing going on.

    I love hockey, and summer. I’m in conflict as I see summer closing and hockey coming, every year.

    Now you rich guys will tell me both are possible.

  123. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Glovjuice:
    This is a good left d:

    Nurse
    Klefbum (that’s hot)
    Broberg
    Samarukov

    I like. Well, 1-2 will be Brober and Sammy in two years when I am fucking 50 (take that effn OP). Just need a 1 RD as Bouch is not that guy. Fuck. We still need that 1Rd.Gerbils on a wheel we are.

    Good night dude. Adult blog, but kids still up.

    Kirk out.

  124. Glovjuice says:

    One of those 4 LD need to go now for a cost controled high end winger as the value of those 4 are ALL at their absolute peak via-a-vis all parameters that matter. We are not making the playoffs this year anyways so now is the logical time to do it.

  125. rickithebear says:

    Been in hospital with bronchial infection since sat night.
    Just got out tonight!

    Bling is Broberg still 4 th skater back a lot of the time.

    Holland will fine tune that.
    Over the next 2-4 yrs before he sees NHL.

    Most 1st skaters back ( dmen) would hope the 2 Nd skater back is a dpartner not a 3rd to 5 th skater back ( rover).

    We have 16-17’s 212 ga in 17-18 & 18-19, we would have been in playoffs for 3 straight years.

    3-1-1-1 sucks!
    It really really sucks!

    Yeah!
    Holland
    Tippett
    Playfair

  126. JimmyV1965 says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed.

    Personally speaking, I think the narrative of the Oilers being atrocious at drafting and development is overblown.For example, there wasn’t likely to be any team that would have turned Jason Bonsignore into a superstar.More recently, the Oilers were keen on Mark McNeill but the Blackhawks saved them from that mistake.Had CHI drafted, say, Klefbom instead and we took McNeill, we’d be lamenting the fact that we “ruined” another prospect.Yet there’s a success story of draft and development right in front of us, in our top four, and we rarely hear people giving the team it’s due credit.Ditto Duby, Nurse, Eberle, and others.Many other teams miss and pick the wrong player, or whiff on development.We just don’t focus on that aspect so much because it’s not in our backyard.

    Our failure at drafting is our inability to select legit 20 goal scorers outside the first round. Mike Comrie in 1999 was the last player we drafted outside the first round to score 20 goals three seasons or more. One guy in 20 years. We did draft Brodziak who scored 20 once and Stoll who did it twice. This is an abject failure.

  127. rickithebear says:

    Reja: I believe the number one factor is his refusal to go to the net combine that with McMuffin shots and not being in the same universe with his line mates regardless of who they were. I imagine this really pissed off the Coaching staff.

    Goal diff is
    1. Open shot density from attacking skaters.
    Each has a diffrent avg they regress to.
    1 avg for 14 forwards.

    2. Save% baseline established by sum of Dpairs open shot density to each side.
    Each side regresses to their own average.
    2 avg for 3 pairs

    3. Save% from goalie relative to baseline.

    This is the minimum resolution for expected individual performance as a +/- to expected.
    GF and GA.

    PDO
    It does not tell you anything about the Attackers
    3- or 3-1
    And
    The defenders 2-1 or 1-1

    PDO tells us their are shots
    Well some are open shots and some are closed
    and
    their are saves.
    Well some are saves and some are closed shots( hit goalie)

    My Open PDO per side has some real value.
    Minimal but real.

  128. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: Our failure at drafting is our inability to select legit 20 goal scorers outside the first round. Mike Comrie in 1999 was the last player we drafted outside the first round to score 20 goals three seasons or more. One guy in 20 years. We did draft Brodziak who scored 20 once and Stoll who did it twice. This is an abject failure.

    Comrade Horcoff netted 22 in 2005-2006 season

  129. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: Our failure at drafting is our inability to select legit 20 goal scorers outside the first round. Mike Comrie in 1999 was the last player we drafted outside the first round to score 20 goals three seasons or more. One guy in 20 years. We did draft Brodziak who scored 20 once and Stoll who did it twice. This is an abject failure.

    Amen.

    I have shown repeatedly in the past the age based even NHLE of prospects.

    Highlighting the best Age NHLE evg scorers.

    Oilers mgmt has sought out great passers (1A, 2A) who recieve points.

    That same flawed mentality is here on this blog.

    Scorers generate goals.

    Passers recieve assists.

  130. Reja says:

    rickithebear: Goal diff is
    1. Open shot density from attacking skaters.
    Each has a diffrent avg they regress to.
    1 avg for 14 forwards.

    2. Save% baseline established by sum of Dpairs open shot density to each side.
    Each side regresses to their own average.
    2 avg for 3 pairs

    3. Save% from goalie relative to baseline.

    This is the minimum resolution for expected individual performance as a +/- to expected.
    GF and GA.

    PDO
    It does not tell you anything about the Attackers
    3- or 3-1
    And
    The defenders 2-1 or 1-1

    PDO tells us their are shots
    Well some are open shots and some are closed
    and
    their are saves.
    Well some are saves and some are closed shots( hit goalie)

    My Open PDO has some real value.
    Minimal but real.

    If Jesse would go to the net and play with a attitude he would score a lot of garbage goals with his long reach and heavy body but it’s been three years and it just isn’t in him. If you play the perimeter all the time you better have a sniper shot are you won’t last long in the NHL.

  131. JimmyV1965 says:

    Reja: Comrade Horcoff netted 22 in 2005-2006 season

    I just went back to ‘99. We drafted Horcoff in ‘98. We also drafted Lombardi in 2000, but let him walk. The Flames drafted him in 2002. He only scored 20 once, but was a good player. We actually had success in the late ‘90s and early 2000s, but it’s been crickets since Brodziak in 2003.

  132. Reja says:

    JimmyV1965: I just went back to ‘99. We drafted Horcoff in ‘98. We also drafted Lombardi in 2000, but let him walk. The Flames drafted him in 2002. He only scored 20 once, but was a good player. We actually had success in the late ‘90s and early 2000s, but it’s been crickets since Brodziak in 2003.

    I thought Pitlick might squeak out 20 a few years back but the injury bug derailed his season. Still wish they would have kept him he’s my underdog type of player I like cheering for. I’m bullish on Benson and if Tippett plays him top six with skill also 2nd PP I have no doubt 20 is in the cards sooner than later.

  133. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    For what it’s worth (IE. nothing) my CapFriendly lineup has been revolving around a 3rd line of:
    JJ-MG-JA
    for quite some time now. Keep the unproven Euros on the 4th line for now until they push, and give the more established bottom-6 players a chance to impress against the soft parade.

  134. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    rickithebear</strong>:Scorers generate goals.

    Passers recieve assists.

    What about assists that are a result of rebounds generated from HD shots?

    How does your model account for drivers who accumulate assists from good saves off talented goaltenders who can’t recover their rebounds?

  135. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: sixth tround pick is what it is but I’ll certainly take it for a player that wasn’t going to sign.

    You’d take a 6th for JP?

  136. meanashell11 says:

    Jethro Tull: You’d take a 6th for JP?

    marino

  137. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: Our failure at drafting is our inability to select legit 20 goal scorers outside the first round. Mike Comrie in 1999 was the last player we drafted outside the first round to score 20 goals three seasons or more. One guy in 20 years. We did draft Brodziak who scored 20 once and Stoll who did it twice. This is an abject failure.

    I’m not going to do all the years, but I believe there were only 12 total 3 x 20 goal scorers drafted outside the first round from the 1999, 2000 and 2001 drafts. 4 per year.

    You can’t reasonably expect anyone picked in the last 5 yrs to have scored 3 x 20, so you’re looking at 15 yrs X 4 players = around 60 total (less realistically since a lot of these guys are still just getting underway).

    Even generously that’s less than 2 players per team since 1999. The Oilers are slightly off pace, but not even by a full player.

    Abject failure might be a little strong.

  138. Pechetr says:

    chrisco stu,

    Archer? Is that you?

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