Bakersfield Reasonable

What should we expect from the new arrivals in Bakersfield this winter? I’m not talking about what one is hoping for, or what we could create as an outer marker, but rather, reasonable. It’s a more difficult discussion than one might think on first blush. Photo by Rob Ferguson.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

DEFINING REASONABLE

I see reasonable (“RE”) expectations as finding a math ‘line in the sand’ that we can all agree is baby bear’s porridge. It’s like buying a 60-watt bulb and a 100-watt bulb. You can be confident that the number reflects reasonable.

Now, and this is always contentious, it does not mean I hate your favourite player, or that I’m off the grid in love with the future of the player you know in your heart is cross-eyed and brainless.

If a player I estimate at 20 goals in 68 games scores 20 in 40? Music! It’s a great story. That’s the premise. Finding the portion of the estimate that is plumb. Not a half bubble off, just plumb.

2011-12 OKC RE (AND RESULTS)

Below is a post-season sample of previous AHL ‘reasonable expectation’ projections (in this case from 2011-12):

Jeff Petry: His RE was 50 games in the NHL, rest in OKC. Petry kicked the daylights out of it, spending 73 games in the NHL and 2 with the Barons. He’s now an NHL player, and on the verge of a big raise and high expectations.

Taylor Fedun: RE for him was “playing a regular shift and surviving” and he was unable to survive without injury. Fedun was a big story early in training camp and into the pre-season, and who knows what might have been? After his horrible injury, we can cheer for him but counting on a return would be foolish.

Mark Arcobello: I put his RE line in the sand at: “I’ll say 20 goals” and he was certainly on pace (73, 17-26-43) and he led the club at even strength scoring (14-22-36). A little surprising he didn’t get a cup of coffee in the NHL.

Chris VandeVelde: My RE for him was “an ability to deliver more offense” and he did, although it is unlikely he’ll ever have enough of a bat to play as an NHL regular. VV’s even strength totals (68, 5-13-18) were the worst among regular centers on the team. Having said that, VV is a player coach Nelson relied on and there is still a small window (Belanger looks on the outs, Lander is unready) of opportunity. I think he slightly improved his NHL chances this season.

Teemu Hartikainen. Hartikainen was on pace for 20+ goals despite injury and callup, and he closed well enough to have earned strong consideration for the NHL next year. Jim Byers (OKC pbp man) told me yesterday the Big Finn was Paajarvi’s equal based on performance.

Magnus Paajarvi. Lost in the NHL shuffle and losing confidence, he embraced the demotion and played his best hockey in the final 10 games of the playoffs (10, 2-8-10). Very dangerous because of speed and with good passing skills, Paajarvi’s shot and release will need work if he’s going to play on a scoring line in the NHL.

2019-20 BAKERSFIELD RE

Shane Starrett. He was a major part of the Condors success last season, it’s reasonable to expect him to build on that and (at some point) make his NHL debut. Dylan Wells and Stuart Skinner have the same RE: Emerge as a legit starting AHL goaltending option. It’s unlikely both will emerge (and extremely unlikely Ken Holland will pull a Steve Tambellini and believe it).

Evan Bouchard scored eight points in eight AHL playoff games, but didn’t play big minutes. Reasonable should be top 4D minutes in Bakersfield, a feature role on the power play and a point-per-game during the regular season. I also think NHL time is a reasonable expectation.

Dmitri Samorukov had a breakout season in the OHL, so finding reasonable is difficult. I’m going to say that establishing himself as a solid AHL regular, with a positive even-strength goal differential, is reasonable.

William Lagesson had an outstanding AHL debut season, so I’ll suggest an even better goal differential at even strength than he delivered a year ago. Plus NHL time. I’m not sure how many games to list, because the competition is going to be strong.

Ethan Bear needs to stay healthy and deliver the same level of quality, although Bouchard (or Persson) may impact his power-play boxcars. I’m going to suggest expecting some NHL time is reasonable.

Cooper Marody rocked the casbah in year one, I think reasonable expectations should include 25+ NHL games and over a point-per-game in the AHL.

Tyler Benson should increase his point total and demonstrably improve his goal total in Bakersfield. I’ll say 25 AHL goals over an entire season, and 25 NHL games, too.

Kailer Yamamoto might be the most interesting player in this group. He scored 10 goals in 27 games a year ago, I think 25 goals based on a 68-game season in reasonable. No NHL games expected, if he earns them that’s a positive arrow.

Ryan McLeod has terrific speed and two-way acumen, so his emerging as an AHL regular is reasonable. Offensively, 25+ points over 68 games seems reasonable (assuming he gets a regular shift).

Kirill Maksimov is a terrific goal-scorer and Jay Woodcroft’s ability to unlock rookies was a key to Benson, Marody and their seasons. He’s a scorer, but overestimating goal scorers is the easiest mistake in reasonable expectations. I’ll say 20 goals in 68 games for Maksimov. That’s a handsome rookie total and 25 percent more than Benson, who was projected to score 14 by NHLE metrics (he scored 15).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we finally get our in-studio chat with Steve Lansky. We’ll talk media, major stories and family. Jason Gregor will also pop in just after 11 to chat Eskimos and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. See you on the radio!

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126 Responses to "Bakersfield Reasonable"

  1. SwedishPoster says:

    Early in the season, just a training session and the coach has said openly that they’ll mix and match a lot early on but Broberg and Berglund were pairing up today in practice for Skellefteå. They are a good match imo so I really hope they stick.

  2. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Early in the season, just a training session and the coach has said openly that they’ll mix and match a lot early on but Broberg and Berglund were pairing up today in practice for Skellefteå. They are a good match imo so I really hope they stick.

    That would be a fantastic bit of luck for Oilers fans. Can monitor both closely.

  3. Darth Tu says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Early in the season, just a training session and the coach has said openly that they’ll mix and match a lot early on but Broberg and Berglund were pairing up today in practice for Skellefteå. They are a good match imo so I really hope they stick.

    In the words of Palpatine: “Gooooooooooooooooooooooooood”.

    I too hope they stick together, makes it easy for us to follow what they’re both doing. I love your posts on the Swedish prospects, keep up the good work.

  4. pts2pndr says:

    LT
    Thank you for all you do. If the players you listed perform as their (RE) it would be a good bet they make the playoffs. I believe that this year will confirm that having your AHL team in a division with limited travel and most of their games on weekends is a big plus. It allows the coaching staff the opportunity to have the players work on skills during the week. This in turn should allow for a more polished player making his NHL debut.

  5. Andy Dufresne says:

    ” I’m not sure how many games to list, because the competition is going to be strong.”

    MUSIC !!

    I havent heard that tune played on the airwaves around here in quite some time.

  6. Yeti says:

    Great read, thanks LT. Talk of Taylor Fedun brought back some good (and bad) memories. Shame about that injury.

    Quick question: when putting down reasonable expectations in terms of points, would you feel confident enough to differentiate between ES and PP points? E.g. For Benson, is there a reasonable line in the sand for ES scoring? Or is that making it too complex?

  7. Coiler says:

    Darth Tu,

    Great Star Wars reference.

    Lt, I think your RE on Yamamoto is spot on. Let him flourish in Bakersfield and he’ll be a solid addition to the big club in 2021.

  8. godot10 says:

    Are we at #Tippettary yet? Or is it a long way to go.

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    This post should be called VRE

    Very Reasonable Expectations

    What stands out to me is that Lagesson and Marody are most likely to get NHL games. (Caleb Jones is a given, yes?)

    That Benson, while likely to get a cup of coffee, is still miles away from 2RW with the big club.

    And that the hope for Yamo is a really solid year in the AHL. (perhaps a 10 game look see at year end depending on where we are in the standings.)

    I think its reasonable to expect that the NHL competition is going to be amongst the bottom six group, Gagner, Haas, Khaira, Granlund, Archibald, Nygard, Yurco, Cave.

    I think we have this thing surrounded ! 🙂

    Two big questions remain.

    1) Where will JP be playing
    a) Some othe NHL team
    b) Overseas
    c) Oilers

    and

    2) who shows up here on a PTO

  10. rickithebear says:

    LT: you accidentally put in Lagesson instead of Jones.

  11. Andy Dufresne says:

    SwedishPoster: Broberg and Berglund were pairing up today in practice for Skellefteå

    Mama Mia!

    Music!

    #swedishmusic

    #hookedonafeeling

    #BlueSwede ( Our Swedish Blue 🙂 )

  12. godot10 says:

    Andy Dufresne: Mama Mia!

    Music!

    #swedishmusic

    #hookedonafeeling

    #BlueSwede ( Our Swedish Blue )

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unfzfe8f9NI

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think the following should be reasonably expected:

    Bouchard – start in the top 4 (likely 2nd pairing, behind Bear on the right side, with Lowe) and play solid top 4 minutes, with PP1 time and produce over 0.6/game with positive goal differential. By the turn of the calendar he should be established as an elite AHL player with reasonable expectation of call-up.

    Samorukov – I expect him to start on the 3rd pairing with Logan Day and I reasonably expect him to establish himself as a legit top 4 AHL defender by year’s end. Maybe a late season NHL cup of coffee totally dependant on NHL injuries and NHL team success but putting himself in the conversation for NHL employment for 2020/21

    Lagesson – I reasonably expect him to be a full time NHL player by year’s end. I think he is ready now and just needs the opportunity. I think, once he gets his NHL chance, his AHL days may be over. He is built for the new NHL – a defence first mean and aggressive defender who is also a good skater and can transition the puck. A few years at 3RD and he’ll be ready for 2LD, 22 minutes per night.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    I reasonably expect one of Benson or Marody to break camp with the Oilers. It would be great if both can half great camps, break camp with the team and prove to be ready during the beginning of the season but its only reasonable to expect that from one.

    I reasonably expect Benson to either break camp with the team or be called up early in the year as the 3LW or 2LW and, by the end of the year, to establish himself as a legit 2LW in the NHL on a line with a plus center.

    Marody, I reasonably expect him to establish himself as a legit bottom 6, hopefully 3rd line, player by year’s end – fantasy expectation is 3C but I think it might be out of reach as of now.

    Yamamoto – I am expecting health and, if so, I am fully confident he’ll be right around a PPG in the AHL and in the conversation for a call up down the stretch and ready for NHL employment in 2020/21. He proved to be a plus AHL player last year, when healthy and gained traction. I truly hope the Oilers don’t recall him when he’s got 9 points in the the first 8 games.

    Maksimov – I reasonably expect him to start in the bottom 6 and parlay his plus 2-way game from junior to the pro level. By year’s end, with some NHL call-ups, I expect Krill to be a top 6 AHL player who also plays both special teams.

  15. Andy Dufresne says:

    “These guys” = Broberg and Berglund (Blue Swede)

    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga
    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga
    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga
    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga

    I can’t stop this feeling
    Deep inside of me
    These guys just don’t realize
    What they do to me

    When they play together
    and thier positions tight
    They let us know
    Everything’s gonna be alright

    I, I, I, I, I’m hooked on a feeling…. do do do do
    And I’m high on believing……do do do do
    That they’re alright with me

    Boom, Boom,

    Moves as sweet as candy
    Rickis Box D on my mind
    Man , they got me thirsty
    For another Cup…. full of wine (Stanley that is) do do dooooo
    ….
    (Pause 4 beats)

    All the good moves; when they’re in all alone
    Keep it up boys
    Yeah, turn that red light on

    I , I, I , I I’mmmmm hooked on a feeling……do do do do..
    And I’m high on believing….do do do do
    That they’re alright with me

    YEAH…Im hooked on a feelin!…

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I reasonably expect one of Benson or Marody to break camp with the Oilers.It would be great if both can half great camps, break camp with the team and prove to be ready during the beginning of the season but its only reasonable to expect that from one.

    I reasonably expect Benson to either break camp with the team or be called up early in the year as the 3LW or 2LW and, by the end of the year, to establish himself as a legit 2LW in the NHL on a line with a plus center.

    Marody, I reasonably expect him to establish himself as a legit bottom 6, hopefully 3rd line, player by year’s end – fantasy expectation is 3C but I think it might be out of reach as of now.

    Yamamoto – I am expecting health and, if so, I am fully confident he’ll be right around a PPG in the AHL and in the conversation for a call up down the stretch and ready for NHL employment in 2020/21. He proved to be a plus AHL player last year, when healthy and gained traction. I truly hope the Oilers don’t recall him when he’s got 9 points in the the first 8 games.

    Maksimov – I reasonably expect him to start in the bottom 6 and parlay his plus 2-way game from junior to the pro level.By year’s end, with some NHL call-ups, I expect Krill to be a top 6 AHL player who also plays both special teams.

    You Sir…..are a reasonable person. 🙂

  17. rickithebear says:

    Andy Dusfrene:

    Dmen most likely to generate cup core Def GA numbers
    Larsson
    Russell
    Benning
    Lagesson

    These Dmen will get a high gm count in NHL
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Hopefully they learn not to hurt our GA under Tippett & Playfair

    A question as to which of these 2 get start of season if we go 7 dmen.
    Persson
    Manning

    Jones is the 9th or tenth dman on the roster when injuries hit.

    A lot of superior (PK, DZ, EVG) talent in the bottom 6 of this years oilers team.
    Archibald EVG, PK
    Granlund EVG, Maybe PK
    KHaira PK, DZ, 3C
    Haas DZ, PK, 3C
    Brodziak DZ, PK
    Jurco EVG
    Gagner PP,
    Nygard Evg

    Have to think Gambardella and Maroody get the chance if any injuries hit the EVG, PK, DZ depth.

    Hopefully Benson can prove he can stay healthy for 2 years.
    Suggesting he can handle NHL rigors.

    Would be nice to see Yamamotto stop the Age NHLE collapse from the last 3 yrs.

    Bouchard showing a strong HD game may get him into NHL consideration.

    CHL players go from facing Bottom 20 starter save% of .898 to seeing bottom 20 starter save% of .908 in AHL.

    Interesting to see who shows this year.

    Holland likes 23 yr old debuts.
    Said the veteran additions were about helping the team down the road.

    Maroody 1 yr from 23
    Benson 2 yr from 23
    Yamamotto 2 yr from 23
    Mcleod 3 yr from 23

    Lavoie 4 yrs from 23 but his draft -1 and draft Playoff age NHLE suggests he maybe one of Holland’s 20/21 yr old debuts.
    Maybe jump the cue on the guys above.

    Veteran depth is what we all hoped for to let the prospects cook.

  18. Andy Dufresne says:

    godot10: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unfzfe8f9NI

    Thank you for the accompaniment ! 🙂

    #GODOT10GOTIT

  19. Andy Dufresne says:

    rickithebear:
    Andy Dusfrene:

    Dmen most likely to generate cup core Def GA numbers
    Larsson
    Russell
    Benning
    Lagesson

    These Dmenwill get a high gm count in NHL
    Klefbom
    Nurse
    Hopefully they learn not to hurt our GA under Tippett & Playfair

    A question as to which of these 2 get start of season if we go 7 dmen.
    Persson
    Manning

    Jones is the 9th or tenth dman on the roster when injuries hit.

    A lot of superior (PK, DZ, EVG) talent in the bottom 6 of this years oilers team.
    Archibald EVG, PK
    Granlund EVG, Maybe PK
    KHaira PK, DZ, 3C
    Haas DZ, PK, 3C
    Brodziak DZ, PK
    Jurco EVG
    Gagner PP,
    Nygard Evg

    Have to think Gambardella and Maroody get the chance if any injuries hit the EVG, PK, DZ depth.

    Hopefully Benson can prove he can stay healthy for 2 years.
    Suggesting he can handle NHL rigors.

    Would be nice to see Yamamotto stop the Age NHLE collapse last 3 yrs.

    Bouchard showing a strong HD game may get him into NHL consideration.

    CHL players go from facing Bottom 20 starter save% of .898 to seeing bottom 20 starter save% of .908 in AHL.

    Interesting to see who shows this year.

    Holland likes 23 yr old debuts.
    Said the veteran additions were about helping the team down the road.

    Maroody 1 yr from 23
    Benson 2 yr from 23
    Yamamotto 2 yr from 23
    Mcleod 3 yr from 23

    Lavoie 4 yrs from 23 but his draft -1 and draft Playoff age NHLE suggests he maybe one of Holland’s 20/21 yr old debuts.
    Maybe jump the cue on the guys above.

    Veteran depth is what we all hoped for to let the prospects cook.

    Love it Ricki. A strong post befitting a Lowetide RE.

    To be honest, some days i speak / understand bear language and other days not so much.

    Today is good day. I feel fluent in bear. 🙂

    I hope today is a great day for you. Stay Strong Brother!

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:
    Jones played right side all last year in the AHL and has had the requisite NHL cup of coffee.

    I think he’s vastly more likely to break camp on the right side than Persson who hasn’t played in North America yet.

    While no longer on his ELC, Persson is waiver exempt so there is chance he could go to the AHL for an adjustment period.

    I’m very interested to see how he perform at camp – not that it’ll show NHL readiness, tough to prove that in camp, however, it should give a good indication of how long of an adjustment period he’ll need.

    There is also the chance that Kris Russell plays 3RD, less egregious than 2RD:

    If Persson needs time:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Benning
    Lagesson (Jones)/Russell

  21. Woogie63 says:

    Is there ONE streaming service that covers SHL and KHL?

  22. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Here’s my homer, can’t happen rose-colored glasses expectations:

    Nygard-McD-Neal
    – Nygard be crazy fast, Neal plays his preference off-side, and their off-season bromance crushes it

    Benson-Drai-Chiasson
    – Benson is just too hot in pre-season, and Kassian be all mad,

    Jar-RNH-Pool
    – Pool talks to Kurri and Holland and Tippet ghost-whisper him, and this combo sticks

    Archibald-Marody-Granlund
    – Marody gets two “vets” and lights it up

    So these are locks:
    1) McD pots 50, Neal and Nygard 25 each (highest scoring line in league)
    2) Drai gets his 50, Benson crushes 20, Chiasson gets bumped off by Kailer by X-Mas
    3) Jar-RNH-Pool deadliest 3rd line in hockey: career highs for all of them
    4) Chiasson and Kassian are on 4rth line, with the extras and they get traded for sick players

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russell-Persson

    – And by Christmas, Bouchard is tearing it up in AHL, as is Jones, so they have to trade Benning and Russell, to give them room, and get sick players in return

    – Koski plays like he did for his good streak, and Smith does OK, but then they get injured and Starret shows up and be like Billington 2.0 and stones everyone

    GOILERS!!!!

    – OK, carry on everyone

    * F%uk it: I’ve convinced myself this is happening: Hunter put me down for 112 points

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors sign Starrett’s younger brother to a contract.

    A center.

    https://www.bakersfieldcondors.com/news/condors-sign-beau-starrett/

    Seems a bit odd to me given I’m not even sure they will have room for a guy like Safin in the lineup.

  24. Professor Q says:

    Woogie63:
    Is there ONE streaming service that covers SHL and KHL?

    Does DAZN cover them?

  25. Darth Tu says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Here’s my homer, can’t happen rose-colored glasses expectations:

    Nygard-McD-Neal
    – Nygard be crazy fast, Neal plays his preference off-side, and their off-season bromance crushes it

    Benson-Drai-Chiasson
    – Benson is just too hot in pre-season, and Kassian be all mad,

    Jar-RNH-Pool
    – Pool talks to Kurri and Holland and Tippet ghost-whisper him, and this combo sticks

    Archibald-Marody-Granlund
    – Marody gets two “vets” and lights it up

    So these are locks:
    1) McD pots 50, Neal and Nygard 25 each (highest scoring line in league)
    2) Drai gets his 50, Benson crushes 20, Chiasson gets bumped off by Kailer by X-Mas
    3) Jar-RNH-Pool deadliest 3rd line in hockey: career highs for all of them
    4) Chiasson and Kassian are on 4rth line, with the extras and they get traded for sick players

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russell-Persson

    – And by Christmas, Bouchard is tearing it up in AHL, as is Jones, so they have to trade Benning and Russell, to give them room, and get sick players in return

    – Koski plays like he did for his good streak, and Smith does OK, but then they get injured and Starret shows up and be like Billington 2.0 and stones everyone

    GOILERS!!!!

    – OK, carry on everyone

    * F%uk it: I’ve convinced myself this is happening: Hunter put me down for 112 points

    Sign me up for all of this.

    Meanwhile in Sweden, the B+B first D pairing break all kinds of records for possession, GF/GA, and put up insane points.

    10 Stanley Cups in a row follow, from the 20/21 season onwards. Edmonton rejoices. Statues of McDavid and Ken Holland are erected on 104 Ave.

  26. Glovjuice says:

    Darth Tu: Sign me up for all of this.

    Meanwhile in Sweden, the B+B first D pairing break all kinds of records for possession, GF/GA, and put up insane points.

    10 Stanley Cups in a row follow, from the 20/21 season onwards. Edmonton rejoices. Statues of McDavid and Ken Holland are erected on 104 Ave.

    Erected. Cool. Nygard will surprise I predict.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Early in the season, just a training session and the coach has said openly that they’ll mix and match a lot early on but Broberg and Berglund were pairing up today in practice for Skellefteå. They are a good match imo so I really hope they stick.

    I hope they stick too as that likely means top 4 minutes for Broberg from day 1.

    I think Berglund was solidly in the top 4 last year, no?

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    “Evan Bouchard scored eight points in eight AHL playoff games, but didn’t play big minutes. Reasonable should be top 4D minutes in Bakersfield, a feature role on the power play and a point-per-game during the regular season. I also think NHL time is a reasonable expectation.”

    Point-per-game? I’m not sure that’s a “reasonable” number, even for Bouchard. It’s a distinct possibility for sure, but reasonable?

    Here’s a partial list of well known defensemen and how they fared in their AHL rookie season (20 gp minimum unless otherwise noted) in the P/GP metric:

    2018-19
    Wolanin 0.78
    Juolevi 0.72 (18 gp)
    Valimaki 0.70
    Brannstrom 0.64
    Bean 0.63
    Jokiharju 0.57
    Day 0.53

    2017-18
    Aho 0.73
    Niku 0.71
    Hronek 0.58
    Chabot 0.54 (13 gp)
    Bear 0.49

    2016-17
    Dunn 0.63
    Wood 0.63
    Sanheim 0.49

    2015-16
    Montour 0.84
    Theodore 0.74
    Gostisbehere 0.71 (14 gp)
    DeAngelo 0.62
    Lindell 0.58

    2014-15
    Klingberg 1.20 (10 gp)
    Pouliot 0.77
    Dumba 0.70
    Pulock 0.54

    2013-14
    Murphy 1.00
    Ceci 0.70
    Ristolainen 0.59

    2012-13
    Schultz 1.41!!!
    Vatanen 0.73
    Krug 0.71
    Oleksiak 0.56
    Ekholm 0.54
    Hunt 0.51

    2011-12
    Barrie 0.65
    Ellis 0.62

    2010-11
    Gustafsson 0.68
    Bruan 0.68
    Savard 0.60
    Petry 0.59
    Josi 0.58
    Scandella 0.58

    2009-10
    E. Karlsson 0.92 (12 gp)
    Carlson 0.81
    Subban 0.69

    Murphy hit the magic number and Schultz knocked it out of the park. But there are a lot of pretty impressive names on the list that fell short. Needless to say, I’ll be VERY pleased if Bouchard is hovering around P/GP by Christmas.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Do we fear that, with so many options for the bottom 5-6 spots in the lineup, and so much flux with respect to where players will play, 2nd line vs. 3rd line vs. 4th line, that there will be too much experimenting at camp and little time to develop chemistry among lines?

    Will Tippett be able to make decisions early enough and get the roster pared down quick enough?

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: and they get traded for sick players

    so they have to trade Benning and Russell, to give them room, and get sick players in return

    Why are you picking up so many guys who are on LTIR??

  31. gimme shelter says:

    I am not of the mindset that you have to leave a prospect in the minors for an entire year. Particularily if they have NHL potential. So if Maksimov shows he can compete at a high level he should as a reward be given a few games in the NHL. This depends on whether the Condors are in the playoffs or the injury situation in Edmonton. I do not want him to simply sit on the bench.

  32. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Early in the season, just a training session and the coach has said openly that they’ll mix and match a lot early on but Broberg and Berglund were pairing up today in practice for Skellefteå. They are a good match imo so I really hope they stick.

    Haha, love it!

    … and, called it several weeks ago.

  33. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “Evan Bouchard scored eight points in eight AHL playoff games, but didn’t play big minutes. Reasonable should be top 4D minutes in Bakersfield, a feature role on the power play and a point-per-game during the regular season. I also think NHL time is a reasonable expectation.”

    Point-per-game? I’m not sure that’s a “reasonable” number, even for Bouchard. It’s a distinct possibility for sure, but reasonable?

    Agreed that’s an aggressive estimate for any rookie pro D.

    Bouchard did outscore pretty much everyone in his junior draft and draft +1 though, and managed a PPG in limited minutes/games in Bakersfield.

    It would be a huge plus arrow if he is able to manage a point per game. If so he won’t be long for the minors.

  34. pts2pndr says:

    godot10:
    Are we at #Tippettary yet?Or is it a long way to go.

    Very good! In keeping with your posts.

  35. pts2pndr says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Here’s my homer, can’t happen rose-colored glasses expectations:

    Nygard-McD-Neal
    – Nygard be crazy fast, Neal plays his preference off-side, and their off-season bromance crushes it

    Benson-Drai-Chiasson
    – Benson is just too hot in pre-season, and Kassian be all mad,

    Jar-RNH-Pool
    – Pool talks to Kurri and Holland and Tippet ghost-whisper him, and this combo sticks

    Archibald-Marody-Granlund
    – Marody gets two “vets” and lights it up

    So these are locks:
    1) McD pots 50, Neal and Nygard 25 each (highest scoring line in league)
    2) Drai gets his 50, Benson crushes 20, Chiasson gets bumped off by Kailer by X-Mas
    3) Jar-RNH-Pool deadliest 3rd line in hockey: career highs for all of them
    4) Chiasson and Kassian are on 4rth line, with the extras and they get traded for sick players

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russell-Persson

    – And by Christmas, Bouchard is tearing it up in AHL, as is Jones, so they have to trade Benning and Russell, to give them room, and get sick players in return

    – Koski plays like he did for his good streak, and Smith does OK, but then they get injured and Starret shows up and be like Billington 2.0 and stones everyone

    GOILERS!!!!

    – OK, carry on everyone

    * F%uk it: I’ve convinced myself this is happening: Hunter put me down for 112 points

    Thank you for posting what I believe might be the best starting lineup. It makes sense so may be too well thought out. Cheers!

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    AndyDufresne:
    This post should be called VRE

    Very Reasonable Expectations

    What stands out to me is that Lagesson and Marody are most likely to get NHL games. (Caleb Jones is a given, yes?)

    That Benson, while likely to get a cup of coffee, is still miles away from 2RW with the big club.

    And that the hope for Yamo is a really solid year in the AHL. (perhaps a 10 game look see at year end depending on where we are in the standings.)

    I think its reasonable to expect that the NHL competition is going to be amongst the bottom six group, Gagner, Haas, Khaira, Granlund, Archibald, Nygard, Yurco, Cave.

    I think we have this thing surrounded !

    Two big questions remain.

    1) Where will JP be playing
    a) Some othe NHL team
    b) Overseas
    c) Oilers

    and

    2) who shows up here on a PTO

    I think NHL games for Lagesson is almost a given as well. He is just as ready as Jones from my AHL viewings – maybe even more so given level of play

    2LW for Benson, not 2RW. If he’s not ready for 2LW, I am hopeful he is by the end of the year – is that a reasonable expectation or a hope? If he is NHL ready to start the year but not quite ready to face tough minutes in the top 6, can he play 3LW or should he head back to the Bake? I think Granlund is almost locked in at 3LW.

    I agree with Yamamoto – I could potentially be OK with him up a little earlier in 2020 if he is indeed PPG as expected and the NHL team needs a winger.

    I could see Sheehan or Lindberg on a PTO. Think Brassard is holding out for a contract.

  37. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we fear that, with so many options for the bottom 5-6 spots in the lineup, and so much flux with respect to where players will play, 2nd line vs. 3rd line vs. 4th line, that there will be too much experimenting at camp and little time to develop chemistry among lines?

    Will Tippett be able to make decisions early enough and get the roster pared down quick enough?

    Absolutely afraid, The best thing they can do is get the numbers down to the real contenders ASAP. No Dickin around.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux:
    – Here’s my homer, can’t happen rose-colored glasses expectations:

    Nygard-McD-Neal
    – Nygard be crazy fast, Neal plays his preference off-side, and their off-season bromance crushes it

    Benson-Drai-Chiasson
    – Benson is just too hot in pre-season, and Kassian be all mad,

    Jar-RNH-Pool
    – Pool talks to Kurri and Holland and Tippet ghost-whisper him, and this combo sticks

    Archibald-Marody-Granlund
    – Marody gets two “vets” and lights it up

    So these are locks:
    1) McD pots 50, Neal and Nygard 25 each (highest scoring line in league)
    2) Drai gets his 50, Benson crushes 20, Chiasson gets bumped off by Kailer by X-Mas
    3) Jar-RNH-Pool deadliest 3rd line in hockey: career highs for all of them
    4) Chiasson and Kassian are on 4rth line, with the extras and they get traded for sick players

    Nurse-Larsson
    Klef-Benning
    Russell-Persson

    – And by Christmas, Bouchard is tearing it up in AHL, as is Jones, so they have to trade Benning and Russell, to give them room, and get sick players in return

    – Koski plays like he did for his good streak, and Smith does OK, but then they get injured and Starret shows up and be like Billington 2.0 and stones everyone

    GOILERS!!!!

    – OK, carry on everyone

    * F%uk it: I’ve convinced myself this is happening: Hunter put me down for 112 points

    I am on-board with the lineup except Nygard at 1LW – I just can’t pencil such an unknown in to the top 6 and, personally, don’t think speed is a pre-req to play with McDavid.

    Not many other options so I get it though.

    Not sure about the predictions but I sure do like them.

  39. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Condors sign Starrett’s younger brother to a contract.

    A center.

    https://www.bakersfieldcondors.com/news/condors-sign-beau-starrett/

    Seems a bit odd to me given I’m not even sure they will have room for a guy like Safin in the lineup.

    You are never really wrong in keeping family first! I am a functional drunk. The difference from an alcoholic as I see it I is I strive to help others. The alcohol helps to numb the mistakes of yesteryear. I make no apologies for my service in Vietnam. Sometimes we seek escapes from life. We must always remember sports is not life. I truly appreciate your positivity! The Oilers were the tonic for a returning Vet. This community is very special to me as it is to many. Semper Fi to all!

  40. rickithebear says:

    jp: Agreed that’s an aggressive estimate for any rookie pro D.

    Bouchard did outscore pretty much everyone in his junior draft and draft +1 though, and managed a PPG in limited minutes/games in Bakersfield.

    It would be a huge plus arrow if he is able to manage a point per game. If so he won’t be long for the minors.

    Holland: dmen to be 4th and 5th attacking option while not risking defence.

    Of the 5 Lagesson ev goals I saw on video.
    4 were examples of 4/5 attacking option with no def risk.

    Seeing Bouchard do that would be majic.

    I like Lagessons and Bouchard wristers from the point.

    AHL D Prospects generating even production without risking def of HD area would be cup core music.

    Jones (22) 6’1” 195 lb
    Berglund (22) 6’3” 206 lb
    Bear (22) 5’11” 197 lb
    Samorukov (20) 6’2” 180 lb
    Bouchard (19) 6’3” 195 lb
    Broberg (18) 6’3” 203 lb

    Will all have to prove they can do that!

  41. Jethro Tull says:

    A major problem with the Oilers that doesn’t seem to have disappeared is the knee jerk, shutting the stable door approach to problem solving.

    For instance, last year, secondary scoring, particularly the bottom 6 was atrocious – the worst the league has see, in fact.

    The Oilers, to their credit, identify this. So what to do, what to do? Holland, straight out of the book so many worked from, solves this by getting more bottom six players. In fact, the correct response would have been to get better players for the top six and push those already incumbent down the order.

    It’s the major flaw of stats like 5×5/60 (why 60? Because there’s 60 mins in a game? But a player plays shifts, differing in length against different quality of competition. I digress). We see a player in the bottom line playing not even 10mins a game, and if he’s even moderately successful, his 5×5/60 sky rockets, where as a player on the second line, playing 18 mins a night against better opposition, has to do a lot more heavy lifting to match the 4th liners numbers. Yet we value the 4th liner more. But which player has more value to the team?

  42. deardylan says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    “These guys” = Broberg and Berglund (Blue Swede)

    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga
    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga
    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga
    Ooga-chaka Ooga-Ooga

    I can’t stop this feeling
    Deep inside of me
    These guys just don’t realize
    What they do to me

    When they play together
    and thier positions tight
    They let usknow
    Everything’s gonna be alright

    I, I, I, I,I’m hooked on a feeling….do do do do
    And I’m high on believing……do do do do
    That they’re alrightwith me

    Boom, Boom,

    Moves as sweet as candy
    Rickis Box Don my mind
    Man , they got me thirsty
    For another Cup….full of wine (Stanley that is)do do dooooo
    ….
    (Pause 4 beats)

    All the good moves;when they’re in all alone
    Keep it up boys
    Yeah,turn that red light on

    I , I, I , I I’mmmmm hooked on a feeling……do do do do..
    And I’m high on believing….do do do do
    That they’re alrightwith me

    YEAH…Im hooked ona feelin!…

    Love it bro. Like reading myself in a mirrortrek hightide episode. We gotta meet up when you are in Toronto or wherever you live!!

  43. Ribs says:

    Thinking about how it’s 2019 and I’m suddenly having a little bit of a worry about how our new GM hasn’t got a team through the first round of playoffs since 2012-13 and how our new coach hasn’t even seen the playoffs since 2011-12… I hope this road isn’t as rocky as it looks!

    I think I’m still traumatized by the Pat Quinn dinosaur coaching era. If Tippett’s opening lineup looks anything like Quinn’s, I might reach a new level of Oilerbaffled!

  44. pts2pndr says:

    Jethro Tull:
    A major problem with the Oilers that doesn’t seem to have disappeared is the knee jerk, shutting the stable door approach to problem solving.

    For instance, last year, secondary scoring, particularly the bottom 6 was atrocious – the worst the league has see, in fact.

    The Oilers, to their credit, identify this.So what to do, what to do?Holland, straight out of the book so many worked from, solves this by getting more bottom six players.In fact, the correct response would have been to get better players for the top six and push those already incumbent down the order.

    It’s the major flaw of stats like 5×5/60 (why 60?Because there’s 60 mins in a game?But a player plays shifts, differing in length against different quality of competition. I digress).We see a player in the bottom line playing not even 10mins a game, and if he’s even moderately successful, his 5×5/60 sky rockets, where as a player on the second line, playing 18 mins a night against better opposition, has to do a lot more heavy lifting to match the 4th liners numbers.Yet we value the 4th liner more.But which player has more value to the team?

    That is one way to look at it. Given the cap space, Holland attacked the problem from the bottom up.
    He improved overall team speed. He acquired players with PK acumen. All in all I think you should give him a plus or at least a pass. There was not the cap space for what you suggest. I do not think you are wrong but given the cap space it wasn’t possible.

  45. rickithebear says:

    Larsson (26) 6’3” 208 lb
    Klefbom (26) 6’3” 216 lb
    Persson (25) 5’11” 170 lb
    Benning (25) 6’1” 203 lb
    Nurse (24) 6’4” 221 lb
    Lagesson (23) 6’2” 207 lb
    Is still a very young D.
    Age 27 is usually end of adult lean mass development.

    Will be interesting to see who Holland, Tippett, and Playfair will think can play off game without risking defence by end of season.

  46. pts2pndr says:

    Functional drunk off to wash floors!

  47. Jethro Tull says:

    pts2pndr: He improved overall team speed.

    Speed is like skill, or “toughness”; means very little if not mixed with a healthy dose of the other two.

  48. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: Holland, straight out of the book so many worked from, solves this by getting more bottom six players. In fact, the correct response would have been to get better players for the top six and push those already incumbent down the order.

    I have been arguing this point all summer, to no avail. The solid majority of posters here disagree… but here’s the thing: Holland didn’t even go out and sign more bottom-6 players, he signed cast-off and minor-leaguers that he HOPES can be bottom-6 players.

  49. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: That is one way to look at it. Given the cap space, Holland attacked the problem from the bottom up.
    He improved overall team speed. He acquired players with PK acumen. All in all I think you should give him a plus or at least a pass. There was not the cap space for what you suggest. I do not think you are wrong but given the cap space it wasn’t possible.

    Not true and you know it, because I’ve showed you already.

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    pts2pndr,

    He gets a ‘meh’ to ‘not bad’ (for the Lucic trade).

    But his way only works if you are actually replacing these players, not keeping them around.

  51. rickithebear says:

    Pys2pndr

    Have been saying that before July 1.
    41 evg from 7.14 season of games ( bottom 7)
    5.74 evg for each of bottom 7.
    Holland was grabbing double digit evg replacements.

    Holland’s PP, PK, DZ chase

    Top 50 ppg adds Chaisson, Neal
    Top 20 PK add Archibald
    DZ/PK add Haas
    Double digit EVG pace or NHLE adds Chaisson, Neal, Archibald, Granlund, Jurco, Nygard.

    Scouting reports on top speed.
    ElitevProspect – Nygard,
    Gerard Gallant – Jurco
    MSM – Archibald
    D. Sedin – Granlund
    MSM – Haas

    Have trumpeted this since start of July.

    I researched Holland’s preferred 35+ gm debut season age.
    Established it at (23)

    Keep the youngsters off the roster unless they force you to play them cause they are better than top 62 evg fwds by position.

    Veterans first at Fwd & D unless you are clearly Better than them.
    Jones, Bear, Maroody, benson, Yamamotto have yet to show that!

    Retain elite GA and GF core.
    Cycle cheaper superior ( AHL matured) prospects in.

    If you can get a superior veteran to fill PP, PK, DZ, evg on cheap you bring them in.

  52. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we fear that, with so many options for the bottom 5-6 spots in the lineup, and so much flux with respect to where players will play, 2nd line vs. 3rd line vs. 4th line, that there will be too much experimenting at camp and little time to develop chemistry among lines?

    Will Tippett be able to make decisions early enough and get the roster pared down quick enough?

    IIRC two camps ago the Oilers had a similar situation with lots of bodies and lots of unknowns about the final roster.

    Then last camp things were more streamlined and fewer questions to sort through. There was some talk about that being better for getting the roster stable in time for game 1. But that was no better.

    So, shrug?

    I guess we’ll see, but I imagine the biggest factor is whether the players that ultimately fill the spots are of sufficient quality.

  53. blainer says:

    ArmchairGM: I have been arguing this point all summer, to no avail. The solid majority of posters here disagree… but here’s the thing: Holland didn’t even go out and sign more bottom-6 players, he signed cast-off and minor-leaguers that he HOPES can be bottom-6 players.

    From my reading I actually think most posters here know this team is NOT a playoff team and that as it stands we will need a goaltending miracle to make the post season.

    What I do think though is a lot of us here are hoping for another shoe to drop by way of something opening up after all of the RFA’s are signed. I personally am hoping for some kind of JP plus trade for that 3rd line center who can win draw’s or a scoring winger and that either can also PK.

    But then again I’m also hoping to win the 6-49..

    I will hold my final grade until opening night on Holland. Right now even with the Lucic trade this season is gonna be ugly without some sort of trade to help the top nine.. or.. great goalering..

  54. jp says:

    rickithebear: Holland: dmen to be 4th and 5th attacking option while not risking defence.

    Of the 5 Lagesson ev goals I saw on video.
    4 were examples of 4/5 attacking option with no def risk.

    Seeing Bouchard do that would be majic.

    I like Lagessons and Bouchard wristers from the point.

    AHL D Prospects generating even production without risking def of HD area would be cup core music.

    Jones (22) 6’1” 195 lb
    Berglund (22) 6’3” 206 lb
    Bear (22) 5’11” 197 lb
    Samorukov (20) 6’2” 180 lb
    Bouchard (19) 6’3” 195 lb
    Broberg (18) 6’3” 203 lb

    Will all have to prove they can do that!

    Seems that while Bouchard is capable of rushing it (in Jr at least) most of his offense is from his elite passing/vision and getting his point shot through. Sounds like he should be able to keep producing offense without pulling himself out of position too much.

  55. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: I have been arguing this point all summer, to no avail. The solid majority of posters here disagree… but here’s the thing: Holland didn’t even go out and sign more bottom-6 players, he signed cast-off and minor-leaguers that he HOPES can be bottom-6 players.

    Josh Archibald and Markus Granlund are two bottom six forwards, I think they can be counted as established.

  56. jp says:

    Ribs:
    Thinking about how it’s 2019 and I’m suddenly having a little bit of a worry about how our new GM hasn’t got a team through the first round of playoffs since 2012-13 and how our new coach hasn’t even seen the playoffs since 2011-12… I hope this road isn’t as rocky as it looks!

    I think I’m still traumatized by the Pat Quinn dinosaur coaching era. If Tippett’s opening lineup looks anything like Quinn’s, I might reach a new level of Oilerbaffled!

    Interesting. What would a 2019 Quinn lineup be?

    Khaira-McDavid-Kassian
    Chiasson-Nuge-Archibald
    Granlund-Draisaitl-Brodziak
    Nygard-Cave-Gagner

    I feel like it’s harder to make it look as absurd. Progress?

  57. rickithebear says:

    ArmchairGM: I have been arguing this point all summer, to no avail. The solid majority of posters here disagree… but here’s the thing: Holland didn’t even go out and sign more bottom-6 players, he signed cast-off and minor-leaguers that he HOPES can be bottom-6 players.

    1-31 is 1st line level, 32-62 is 2Nd line level of performance for each position LW, C, RW
    Trade for Neal #12 LW 1.09 evg/60 16-17 to 17-18
    UFA Archibald top 20 PK, #57 RW 12 eve
    UFA Chaisson top 42 fwd 8 ppg, #44 RW 13 evg
    UFA Granlund #60 LW 10 evg
    UFA Jurco 1.02 evg/60 17-18; #20 LW of 350+ EVTOI fwds.
    UFA Nygard Speed and top 31 LW, RW evg NHLE
    UFA Haas Scouting says entry driver, top speed, DZ anchor.

    “ Cast-0ffs & Minor leaguers”

    A little Cow Pattie commentary from you!

  58. jp says:

    Jethro Tull:
    pts2pndr,

    He gets a ‘meh’ to ‘not bad’ (for the Lucic trade).

    But his way only works if you are actually replacing these players, not keeping them around.

    They’re basically all on 1 yr deals. There’s literally zero reason to think Holland views them as keepers.

  59. rickithebear says:

    Ribs:

    Tippett
    Dal 02/03 to 08/09
    playoffs first 5 yrs of his 6 seasons.
    PHX/ arz 09/10 to 16/17
    Playoffs first 3 yrs of his 8 seasons.
    Brutal roster his last 4 seasons in ARZ.

    Avg to above average roster
    playoffs 7 of 9 seasons.

    He has not seen a top 4 Def D and Goaltender like Edm since 11-12 when he lost in WC final.

  60. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    Did you just say a top 20 pk fwd and a mid 2Nd line EVg RW is not a keeper.

    Ouch!

    Tough ( unrealistic?) standard.

    You want the highest standard of depth on your roster for the prospects to beat out.

    You want the best roster to win every game you can from day 1.

    Prospects beats out the depth All the power to them.

    You prove yourself in AHL.

    Not the first 20 gm of a season on a NHL team.

    We do not have to do that anymore!

  61. pts2pndr says:

    Jethro Tull: Speed is like skill, or “toughness”; means very little if not mixed with a healthy dose of the other two.

    True but speed is the skill you can’t teach!

  62. Ribs says:

    rickithebear: He has not seen a top 4 Def D and Goaltender like Edm since 11-12 when he lost in WC final.

    He hasn’t coached a team with those assets since then as well (8 seasons ago!). A lot has changed in this league since. I hope he’s been watching a lot of tape this summer!

  63. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Not true and you know it, because I’ve showed you already.

    You are a much younger me. If you assume that all the opportunities as you presented were in effect available to Oiler management in the time sequence that fit you have a point. What we don’t know is if that was the case. If I had the resources I would back you because what you propose is extremely logical given what we know. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out. Keep up the good fight you have what I feel is good insight. Document your ideas and prognostications they may very well serve you well.

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Jethro Tull:
    pts2pndr,

    He gets a ‘meh’ to ‘not bad’ (for the Lucic trade).

    But his way only works if you are actually replacing these players, not keeping them around.

    Does he or does he not deserve a chance?

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull:
    A major problem with the Oilers that doesn’t seem to have disappeared is the knee jerk, shutting the stable door approach to problem solving.

    For instance, last year, secondary scoring, particularly the bottom 6 was atrocious – the worst the league has see, in fact.

    The Oilers, to their credit, identify this.So what to do, what to do?Holland, straight out of the book so many worked from, solves this by getting more bottom six players.In fact, the correct response would have been to get better players for the top six and push those already incumbent down the order.

    It’s the major flaw of stats like 5×5/60 (why 60?Because there’s 60 mins in a game?But a player plays shifts, differing in length against different quality of competition. I digress).We see a player in the bottom line playing not even 10mins a game, and if he’s even moderately successful, his 5×5/60 sky rockets, where as a player on the second line, playing 18 mins a night against better opposition, has to do a lot more heavy lifting to match the 4th liners numbers.Yet we value the 4th liner more.But which player has more value to the team?

    The issue is the team wasn’t in a position to do what you suggest – not with the cap situation and the asset currency depth. What Holland has done is create smaller bets that include greater depth of speed, professional scoring history and experience for the bottom six that, in aggregate COULD help in this area, while take steps that are part of the plan to set the team up to make the acquisitions you suggest in the coming years.

    Top six players are expensive via cap hit and, if not a free agent signing (which are likely more expensive), acquisition cost.

    This was not the off-season to use up the bullets.

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    blainer: From my reading I actually think most posters here know this team is NOT a playoff team and that as it stands we will need a goaltending miracle to make the post season.

    What I do think though is a lot of us here are hoping for another shoe to drop by way of something opening up after all of the RFA’s are signed. I personally am hoping for some kind of JP plus trade for that 3rd line center who can win draw’s or a scoring winger and that either can also PK.

    But then again I’m also hoping to win the 6-49..

    I will hold my final grade until opening night on Holland. Right now even with the Lucic trade this season is gonna be ugly without some sort of trade to help the top nine.. or.. great goalering..

    Great post.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I have been arguing this point all summer, to no avail. The solid majority of posters here disagree… but here’s the thing: Holland didn’t even go out and sign more bottom-6 players, he signed cast-off and minor-leaguers that he HOPES can be bottom-6 players.

    Nygard was coveted by 20 NHL teams and just finished 2nd in goals and 1st in ESG in 2nd best European league.

    Yes, there is hope, as this player is unproven in the NHL, however, he is not a cast-off or a minor leaguer.

    Archibald and Granlund are proven NHL players with proven skill-sets that can help the team.

    Yes, guys like Jurco fit the description above but not most of the signings.

  68. ArmchairGM says:

    Lowetide: Josh Archibald and Markus Granlund are two bottom six forwards, I think they can be counted as established.

    They are cast-offs too though. Both were RFA’s with non-playoff teams which declined to retain their rights through giving them a qualifying offer. If either had value they could have been retained and / or traded by their former teams… I get that they have a history and could perform adequately, but failing to get a QO from the organization that knows them best is hardly a resounding endorsement.

    Vancouver media pundits had Granlund pegged as a 13th or 14th forward next year, but the Canucks obviously didn’t even see that. Arizona could have qualified Archibald for just $735k and didn’t, Holland offered him $1M. Kind of scary that this was the best Holland could muster, is it not?

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nygard was coveted by 20 NHL teams and just finished 2nd in goals and 1st in ESG in 2nd best European league.

    Yes, there is hope, as this player is unproven in the NHL, however, he is not a cast-off or a minor leaguer.

    Archibald and Granlund are proven NHL players with proven skill-sets that can help the team.

    Yes, guys like Jurco fit the description above but not most of the signings.

    SHL is basically a minor league for the purposes of my post. As is the Swiss league… my point was that none of these players are established bottom-6 NHLers, not arguing whether or not the European leagues are technically “minor” leagues.

    See my above reply to LT re cast-offs.

  70. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Do we fear that, with so many options for the bottom 5-6 spots in the lineup, and so much flux with respect to where players will play, 2nd line vs. 3rd line vs. 4th line, that there will be too much experimenting at camp and little time to develop chemistry among lines?

    Will Tippett be able to make decisions early enough and get the roster pared down quick enough?

    I have had the same concern but haven’t posted said thought. I agree with Hollands general process but I think he over did it a bit thus making camp more challenging for the coaching staff than it needs to be.

  71. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Each season teams expected to dominate don’t and teams not expected to challenge for the Cup do.

    Health and cap issues cause the biggest changes, key players hurt and key players lost.

    GMs sometimes mess up expected contenders.

    The other wild card is the organization and the team being coached to actually playing like a team to their potential.

    Nobody has a foregone advantage because cap. The Flames, Caps and Bolts crapped the bed despite all of the love, as usual.

    If things fall right for the Oilers they could have a great season. They have enough depth, as much as many teams, they have a stable GM , an owner who I believe has backed off the win at all costs ultimatum, a coach who is liked and obviously is invested in the team and has shown success.

    They have Connor, Leon, Nuge, Larsson, Klef, Nurse. I like that group.

    Nothing is guaranteed to any team. But I think we’re past the doom and gloom of summers past. Having a bit of hope ‘probably’ won’t be as hard punished as we’ve been trained to expect.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: IIRC two camps ago the Oilers had a similar situation with lots of bodies and lots of unknowns about the final roster.

    Then last camp things were more streamlined and fewer questions to sort through. There was some talk about that being better for getting the roster stable in time for game 1. But that was no better.

    So, shrug?

    I guess we’ll see, but I imagine the biggest factor is whether the players that ultimately fill the spots are of sufficient quality.

    You kind of hit on exactly what made me make my post.

    I remember all that comp two years ago and the great talk about how its going to lead to great battles and improve the team.

    Then, of course, last year, the talk was about how the previous year didn’t allow for actual “gelling” and “chemistry to build” and how only a few roster and lineup spots up for grabs will lead to a better start.

    Now we are back to where we were the previous years.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: Does he or does he not deserve a chance?

    I think it’s disingenuous to suggest that Jethro (or myself) is not giving Holland a chance. We are. Nothing, however, precludes us from commenting on his body of work so far. And so far, the roster appears to be lacking in the same manner as before.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Seems that while Bouchard is capable of rushing it (in Jr at least) most of his offense is from his elite passing/vision and getting his point shot through. Sounds like he should be able to keep producing offense without pulling himself out of position too much.

    I watched a couple handfuls of London games and all the AHL playoffs and, yes, Bouchard has this uncanny ability to get his shot through and, not only that, once it gets through, it tends to give the goalie trouble and create rebounds.

    He has the ability to change angles quicky and get a solid shot through with varying degrees of wind-up and skate positioning.

    This isn’t “Shultz scoring on a couple wristers from the point and there being an exaggeration verbal for years thereafter about his shot” – this is real and substantial.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Interesting. What would a 2019 Quinn lineup be?

    Khaira-McDavid-Kassian
    Chiasson-Nuge-Archibald
    Granlund-Draisaitl-Brodziak
    Nygard-Cave-Gagner

    I feel like it’s harder to make it look as absurd. Progress?

    It might seem to look less absurd because most of our projected/hopeful lineups have multiple players above their established levels, which is absurd, and we are now used to it?

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:

    He has not seen a top 4 Def D and Goaltender like Edm since 11-12 when he lost in WCfinal.

    Wait a second, does this suggest that the Oilers goaltending is a huge plus for the coach?

    Now, I’m trying to be cautiously optimistic on the due but we are talking about a 38 year old with a history of groin and knee problems coming off a career worse year with some of the worst regular season stats in the league and a 31 year old that has never actually seen success in the NHL over the course of a season (but only in short stints).

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ribs: I hope he’s been watching a lot of tape this summer!

    From the coach’s own mouth, he is doing exactly that.

  78. Glovjuice says:

    pts2pndr:
    Functional drunk off to wash floors!

    Yeah, thats me in a nutshell. However, I am essentially never hungover. Three beers after work and 2-3 drinks before crashing so the buzz doesn’t continue all night. Weekends a bit more but not much. Camping and holidays takes great focus not to overdo it though. I can easily drink all day f I could.

  79. GBandQ says:

    TSN – The Colorado Avalanche have signed forward Valeri Nichushkin to a one-year contract for the upcoming 2019-20 season. According to multiple reports, the deal is for $850,000.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t get on board with calling either Granlund nor Archibald established bottom 6 players.

    We have no idea the inner workings of the Canucks or Coyotes that led to them not being qualified – various factors likely play in in addition to recent on-ice play.

    Granlund is established, its fairly easy to see that.

    Archibald, scored 12 goals last year and is a plus PK guy – there is clearly a reason he wasn’t qualified that doesn’t have to do with him being an NHL player.

  81. Side says:

    ArmchairGM: They are cast-offs too though. Both were RFA’s with non-playoff teams which declined to retain their rights through giving them a qualifying offer. If either had value they could have been retained and / or traded by their former teams… I get that they have a history and could perform adequately, but failing to get a QO from the organization that knows them best is hardly a resounding endorsement.

    Vancouver media pundits had Granlund pegged as a 13th or 14th forward next year, but the Canucks obviously didn’t even see that. Arizona could have qualified Archibald for just $735k and didn’t, Holland offered him $1M. Kind of scary that this was the best Holland could muster, is it not?

    I don’t see what your cast offs point has anything to do with someone being a bottom 6 forward or not.

    One can be a bottom 6 but also be a cast off from the team they were on.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: SHL is basically a minor league for the purposes of my post. As is the Swiss league… my point was that none of these players are established bottom-6 NHLers, not arguing whether or not the European leagues are technically “minor” leagues.

    See my above reply to LT re cast-offs.

    I don’t disagree with the SHL description, however, this guy led that league in ESG and 20 GM’s were interested in signing him. To not see the value in an ELC contract to a player coveted by 2/3 of the managers in the league is fairly arrogant I would think, no?

  83. Reja says:

    Side: I don’t see what your cast offs point has anything to do with someone being a bottom 6 forward or not.

    One can be a bottom 6 but also be a cast off from the team they were on.

    I agree every year bottom 6 forwards are playing musical chairs all over the league some have a damn fine year on a show me contract.

  84. Lowetide says:

    ArmchairGM: They are cast-offs too though. Both were RFA’s with non-playoff teams which declined to retain their rights through giving them a qualifying offer. If either had value they could have been retained and / or traded by their former teams… I get that they have a history and could perform adequately, but failing to get a QO from the organization that knows them best is hardly a resounding endorsement.

    Vancouver media pundits had Granlund pegged as a 13th or 14th forward next year, but the Canucks obviously didn’t even see that. Arizona could have qualified Archibald for just $735k and didn’t, Holland offered him $1M. Kind of scary that this was the best Holland could muster, is it not?

    Archibald spent 33 percent of his five-on-five icetime against elites, according to Puck IQ. That ranked him No. 6 among Arizona forwards. His Dangerous Fenwick was 49.60 percent, -2.6 rel. His on ice goal diffeential five-on-five versus elites was 11-10. His overall points-per-60 was 1.32, ranking him No 8 among Arizona forwards.

    I think that’s a useful player. Not a top six forward, and I don’t think he’ll see 33 percent against elites, but this is a worthy investment.

    Granlund spent 26.6 percent of his five-on-five icetime against elites, according to Puck IQ. That ranked him No. 11 among Vancouver forwards 150+ minutes (they’re a mess, so many moves). His Dangerous Fenwick was 47 percent, +5.0 rel. Meaning he was getting caved against elites, but doing much better against those elites compared to other Canucks. His team was outscored 6-11 against elites, and his overall points-per-60 was 1.11, ranking him No. 12 among Vancouver regulars.

    I think that’s a player Edmonton can use, and if the club can find a solid two-way center Granlund’s possession number should be solid (implied by his rel number).

    As for what the season brings, we wait. I sure didn’t think last year’s third line wingers on opening night (Khaira and Puljujarvi) or fourth line wingers that night (Rieder and Kassian) would struggle so much (Kassian aside).

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    Side: I don’t see what your cast offs point has anything to do with someone being a bottom 6 forward or not.

    One can be a bottom 6 but also be a cast off from the team they were on.

    “Too”

  86. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: I think it’s disingenuous to suggest that Jethro (or myself) is not giving Holland a chance. We are. Nothing, however, precludes us from commenting on his body of work so far. And so far, the roster appears to be lacking in the same manner as before.

    Valid. I trust you to be as willing to give credit to the organization if it works out well. I have no problem with your questioning because that has value.

  87. SkatinginSand says:

    Steve Staios was a castoff from the Atlanta Thrashers. Sometimes the smartest men in the room… aren’t.

  88. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: I have been arguing this point all summer, to no avail. The solid majority of posters here disagree… but here’s the thing: Holland didn’t even go out and sign more bottom-6 players, he signed cast-off and minor-leaguers that he HOPES can be bottom-6 players.

    Castoffs put in the right position can have value. I had two castoffs in Vietnam that made us a very effective team. Many Oiler castoffs have went on to have very good NHL careers. One mans trash can be another mans gold. Just saying.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marchant was a cast-off from Edmonton

    Marchessault essentially a cast-off from FLA given who they protected

    Maroon all but a cast-off from ANA

    Dubnyk a cast-off from a number of orgs – cleared waivers a few times before the Wild signed him

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nice interview with Benson here. Nothing earth-shattering but always good to hear from the players:

    https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1163632996487819264

  91. OriginalPouzar says:

    This doesn’t sound all that great for the flames:

    https://www.thescore.com/news/1815402

    Matthew Tkachuk’s agent, Don Meehan, said his side gave the Calgary Flames parameters for a new contract two months ago.

    “We took an approach whereby we would be really proactive and progressive with Calgary,” Meehan told TSN. “We started early, and we set a position. We didn’t really have to wait. We formulated a position that we thought would be fair, and we gave that to Calgary probably in the early part of June.

    “We’re involved in negotiations right now, but as far as I’m concerned, it’s not a waiting game. We’ve made a decision in terms of what we think is fair and relevant for the player, and we’re working with Calgary now.”

  92. Ryan says:

    Ribs:
    Thinking about how it’s 2019 and I’m suddenly having a little bit of a worry about how our new GM hasn’t got a team through the first round of playoffs since 2012-13 and how our new coach hasn’t even seen the playoffs since 2011-12… I hope this road isn’t as rocky as it looks!

    I think I’m still traumatized by the Pat Quinn dinosaur coaching era. If Tippett’s opening lineup looks anything like Quinn’s, I might reach a new level of Oilerbaffled!

    Outside of Edmonton, I wouldn’t say that there’s a prevailing attitude, but certainly a strong sentiment that the Oilers basically hired a GM who put his previous team in cap hell to get themselves out of it.

    Now before I’m accused of fabricating this argument, we turn to the athletic:

    https://theathletic.com/1123303/2019/08/08/the-2019-nhl-front-office-confidence-rankings-fans-weigh-in-on-how-each-team-is-doing/

    For the public, it’s hard not to see Holland as more of the same though seeing the damage he has done to the Red Wings over the past decade, signing some of the worst contracts in hockey. That the Red Wings confidence has sky-rockted without him attests to that. Holland is a member of the old boys club and that doesn’t present much of a change from what Chiarelli was offering.
    And if the problem goes deeper than just the GM as most likely see it, then changing a figurehead doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in the current Oilers’ front office. More needs to be done to earn that. Much more.

    Other than the unfortunate contract given to Chaser, I wouldn’t say Holland’s effort appears languid. He’s certainly maintained a phlegmatic disposition during the Leto gate saga.

    At the end of the day, teams rarely improve by shuffling the deck on the bottom of the roster. It’s more a matter of adding impact player and eliminating weak links.

  93. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Lowetide: Archibald spent 33 percent of his five-on-five icetime against elites, according to Puck IQ. That ranked him No. 6 among Arizona forwards. His Dangerous Fenwick was 49.60 percent, -2.6 rel. His on ice goal diffeential five-on-five versus elites was 11-10. His overall points-per-60 was 1.32, ranking him No 8 among Arizona forwards.

    I think that’s a useful player. Not a top six forward, and I don’t think he’ll see 33 percent against elites, but this is a worthy investment.

    Granlund spent 26.6 percent of his five-on-five icetime against elites, according to Puck IQ. That ranked him No. 11 among Vancouver forwards 150+ minutes (they’re a mess, so many moves). His Dangerous Fenwick was 47 percent, +5.0 rel. Meaning he was getting caved against elites, but doing much better against those elites compared to other Canucks. His team was outscored 6-11 against elites, and his overall points-per-60 was 1.11, ranking him No. 12 among Vancouver regulars.

    I think that’s a player Edmonton can use, and if the club can find a solid two-way center Granlund’s possession number should be solid (implied by his rel number).

    As for what the season brings, we wait. I sure didn’t think last year’s third line wingers on opening night (Khaira and Puljujarvi) or fourth line wingers that night (Rieder and Kassian) would struggle so much (Kassian aside).

    Granlund-Strome-Archibald could have been a fine 3rd line

  94. Jethro Tull says:

    pts2pndr: Does he or does he not deserve a chance?

    Nah. As has been pointed out multiple times, we got a multiple-Stanley winning GM for “stability” and “savvy” because, apparently, he could go to work straight away, using that huge roladex and the the favours he’s built up in 30 years of GMing like a gangsta.

    If anything, his resume means he gets waaaaay less slack than a Dubas would.

    Colour me underwhelmed with the body of work so far. Except the Lucic trade. That was good.

    Still, not my circus, not my monkies.

  95. Georgexs says:

    Problem: Take the forwards on each team and sort them by total points scored while playing in games just for that team last season. (If a forward was traded, you’ll count the total points he scored for each of his teams separately.) Select the 6th highest scoring forward on each team, i.e., each team’s lowest top 6 forward by offense. Sort these 6F’s in descending order by points scored. Find the median points total, i.e., the 16th highest points total for a 6F.

    Answer: 34

    Actually, 17 teams had at least 6 forwards score 34 or more points last season. That left 14 teams with a 6F who scored 33 or fewer points.

    First thought for me was, wow, that’s not a lot of points. I (mistakenly) felt cracking the top 6 across the league required more offense than pfft 34 points (and there are 14 teams with 6F’s who didn’t even score 34!). I seemed to remember sorting forwards on points per game and coming up with 0.5 (or 0.55) as the threshold for top 6 production, meaning 40+ points on an 82 game basis.

    Total points shows you don’t always get the full benefit of a player’s rate, because the player is unlikely to play the full 82 games. There’s less actual offense than rates suggest. And some teams have more offense than they know what to do with.

    EDM’s 6th forward was Lucic @ 20 points. We were tied for 31st with ANA, whose 6F was Carter Rowney, also 20 points.

    Here’s a list of the 6th highest scoring forwards (and their points total) for each team:

    SJS, 56, Kevin Labanc
    MTL, 47, Andrew Shaw
    TBL, 47, J.T. Miller
    WSH, 46, Brett Connolly
    TOR, 43, Andreas Johnsson
    OTT, 42, Bobby Ryan
    VGK, 41, Cody Eakin
    CGY, 38, Derek Ryan
    CHI, 37, Artem Anisimov
    WPG, 37, Nikolaj Ehlers
    CBJ, 36, Oliver Bjorkstrand
    DET, 36, Thomas Vanek
    STL, 36, Jaden Schwartz
    NYR, 35, Jimmy Vesey
    PIT, 35, Bryan Rust
    BOS, 34, Danton Heinen
    FLA, 34, Vincent Trocheck
    LAK, 33, Alex Iafallo
    NJD, 33, Jesper Bratt
    NYI, 33, Casey Cizikas
    PHI, 33, Oskar Lindblom
    COL, 32, J.T. Compher
    NSH, 32, Kevin Fiala
    CAR, 30, Nino Niederreiter
    BUF, 29, Kyle Okposo
    MIN, 28, Charlie Coyle
    ARI, 27, Brad Richardson
    VAN, 27, Nikolay Goldobin
    DAL, 25, Mattias Janmark
    ANA, 20, Carter Rowney
    EDM, 20, Milan Lucic

    Unsurprisingly, teams closer to the top of the list were more likely to make the playoffs than teams near the bottom of the list. But the Cup itself was contested by teams in the middle of the list.

    How do the Oilers improve on their 6F showing from last season given overall goals scored stays in the same ball park in the upcoming season?

    Well, for starters, James Neal will have to score more than Lucic’s 20. I could be a pessimist based on Neal’s last season’s results with CGY and say, no, he’s done, 20 points would be a good year for him at this stage. Or, I could look at his career numbers (and the likelihood he plays with CMD) and say that he’s probably a safe bet to at least get to the middle of the top 6F scoring range, around 34 points.

    Next man up would then be Kassian @ 26 points. In front of Kassian, would be Chiasson @ 38 points. If Kassian gets the Chiasson opportunity from last season, he should be a relatively safe bet to break 30 points. But if Kassian gets that opportunity, then Chiasson likely won’t and he’ll drop back down into the teens or twenties, where he was at before joining EDM. Which would mean we need someone else to break into the top 6 and perform. Two someone elses if both Kassian and Chiasson drop back.

    Regrettably, poor decision making around the development of JP and KY have made the problem harder than it really should be at this stage. But, seeing as JP is opting out, the door is wide open for some other young player(s) to walk through. That sort of thing happens every year in this league. There are, after all, many millions of dollars to be made.

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan,

    Holland has done well not to commit and cap hit with term that could hurt his stated goal of building a championship. He certainly could have signed a Nyquist or a Connolly with a material increase in the term and/or AAV they received I’m sure but has used to the current off-season to start the processing of setting the team up for the ability to make more material acquisitions.

    A material segment of the fanbase wanted “more now” and he could have done that with damage or risk of damage to his main goal (and most of the fanbases). He has not made moves to appease the fanbase, the Broberg pick over a forward with a likely quicker impact at a position of more immediate need is a clear sign of that.

    The Wings of the last 5-8 years were in a different place than the Oilers – their issues started with an owner mandate to keep the playoff streak alive – without that, I doubt their cap situation would have become so dire (and, comparatively, its not that dire).

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Granlund-Strome-Archibald could have been a fine 3rd line

    True.

    Devils’ advocate, Gagner was 5th on the team in P/60 and, his recent history shows he should be a decent bet for apx 40 points.

    Go Marody!!!!!!

  98. Georgexs says:

    Let’s also look at total points scored by each team’s four lines (1F to 3F, 4F to 6F, 7F to 9F, 10F to 12F) and reserves (13+F). We’ll want to see how EDM compared line by line to the totals for the median team.

    Group, Median points, EDM points, EDM rank

    1F to 3F, 210, 290, 2
    4F to 6F, 123, 84, 30
    7F to 9F, 79, 40, 31
    10F to 12F, 46, 30, 31

  99. jp says:

    Georgexs:
    Let’s also look at total points scored by each team’s four lines (1F to 3F, 4F to 6F, 7F to 9F, 10F to 12F) and reserves (13+F). We’ll want to see how EDM compared line by line to the totals for the median team.

    Group, Median points, EDM points, EDM rank

    1F to 3F,210, 290, 2
    4F to 6F, 123, 84, 30
    7F to 9F, 79, 40, 31
    10F to 12F, 46, 30, 31

    Jesus.

  100. Side says:

    ArmchairGM: “Too”

    ??

  101. jp says:

    Georgexs,

    Going out on a limb here and betting that Holland has fixed at least some of this.

    (in reality it would be very difficult to repeat 30, 31, 31 unless one actually tried, so any credit for a rebound may not lie with Holland)

  102. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Ryan,

    Holland has done well not to commit and cap hit with term that could hurt his stated goal of building a championship.He certainly could have signed a Nyquist or a Connolly with a material increase in the term and/or AAV they received I’m sure but has used to the current off-season to start the processing of setting the team up for the ability to make more material acquisitions.

    A material segment of the fanbase wanted “more now” and he could have done that with damage or risk of damage to his main goal (and most of the fanbases). He has not made moves to appease the fanbase, the Broberg pick over a forward with a likely quicker impact at a position of more immediate need is a clear sign of that.

    The Wings of the last 5-8 years were in a different place than the Oilers – their issues started with an owner mandate to keep the playoff streak alive – without that, I doubt their cap situation would have become so dire (and, comparatively, its not that dire).

    There are some mitigating factors with respect to the Wings. Still Holland is more dinosaur than innovator. At the end of the day, he still signed some truly terrible contracts regardless of the underlying reason. At some point, you develop a past.

    Holland played it relatively safe with the only egregious unforced error being the Chaser contract. He went walkabout on Broberg and time will tell.

    The Lucic trade was his master stroke.

    Mostly Holland rearranged the deck chairs. In fairness, there may not have been better scenarios than that and certainly there are others far worse.

    Unless Tippett has Smith and Koskinen standing on their heads this is not a playoff team.

  103. Georgexs says:

    Georgexs:
    Let’s also look at total points scored by each team’s four lines (1F to 3F, 4F to 6F, 7F to 9F, 10F to 12F) and reserves (13+F). We’ll want to see how EDM compared line by line to the totals for the median team.

    Group, Median points, EDM points, EDM rank

    1F to 3F,210, 290, 2
    4F to 6F, 123, 84, 30
    7F to 9F, 79, 40, 31
    10F to 12F, 46, 30, 31

    Here’s how last season’s 2 SC finalists ranked:

    BOS

    1F to 3F, 210, 260, 5
    4F to 6F, 123, 149, 4
    7F to 9F, 79, 60, 28
    10F to 12F, 46, 35, 29

    STL

    1F to 3F, 210, 199, 18
    4F to 6F, 123, 120, 19
    7F to 9F, 79, 92, 8
    10F to 12F, 46, 73, 1

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Holland is a dinasour not an innovator but then he came up with one of the most innovative deals of the off-season to rid the organization of the worst contract in the league without even given up a draft pick except upon the vesting of a 100% innovative condition – the trade also has the reasonable potential to add a legit, albeit still overpaid, top 6 goal scorer.

    That deal, with the team’s historic biggest rival, should show he is not stuck in the old ways.

  105. Munny says:

    Georgexs,

    That’s interesting. Last time the Oil went to the Cup Finals, they did it on the back of a deep team that could saw off in the Top 6 and win the bottom 6 matchups. Much like the Blues look there.

  106. Glovjuice says:

    Georgexs: Here’s how last season’s 2 SC finalists ranked:

    BOS

    1F to 3F, 210, 260, 5
    4F to 6F, 123, 149, 4
    7F to 9F, 79, 60, 28
    10F to 12F, 46, 35, 29

    STL

    1F to 3F, 210, 199, 18
    4F to 6F, 123, 120, 19
    7F to 9F, 79, 92, 8
    10F to 12F, 46, 73, 1

    This is fantastic stuff and are the kind of stats I like to read. So fun.

  107. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Holland is a dinasour not an innovator but then he came up with one of the most innovative deals of the off-season to rid the organization of the worst contract in the league without even given up a draft pick except upon the vesting of a 100% innovative condition – the trade also has the reasonable potential to add a legit, albeit still overpaid, top 6 goal scorer.

    That deal, with the team’s historic biggest rival, should show he is not stuck in the old ways.

    Yeah, I agree for sure. This one deal is enough to cement his first summer as success. I mean, frick, can you imagine coming to a team (wage aside I suppose) that just let a soon to be fired GM sign that Koskinen contract. Holy shit.

  108. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    JP:
    Did you just say a top 20 pk fwd and a mid 2Nd line EVg RW is not a keeper.

    Ouch!

    Tough ( unrealistic?) standard.

    You want the highest standard of depth on your roster for the prospects to beat out.

    You want the best roster to win every game you can from day 1.

    Prospects beats out the depth All the power to them.

    You prove yourself in AHL.

    Not the first 20 gm of a season on a NHL team.

    We do not have to do that anymore!

    I was going to reply to another of your posts earlier but didn’t have time. This is a perfect segue to what I was going to say though.

    First, to answer your question. No, I didn’t say they weren’t keepers. It may have been implied, but my comment simply noted that there’s no reason to think Holland expects them to be keepers since he gave them 1 year deals.

    More to what I was going to comment on earlier, I don’t actually see Granlund and Archibald as keepers. My issue is that you’re picking the peak results of these players in a lot of cases, not their normal or established levels. A few examples:

    Granlund “mid 2nd line EVG RW”. He was that once in his career, 3 seasons ago. His EVG the last 3 seasons were 16, 4, 10. The 4EVG is a 4th line/13th forward number, the 10 is a 3rd line number, as is his 3 year average of 10.

    Jurco “1.02 evg/60 17-18; #20 LW of 350+ EVTOI fwds”. This is literally the only time the kid has scored in the NHL. He had 6 EVG in 29 games that year. He had 13 in his previous 172 games (0.44EVG/60). There’s no way 1.02EVG/60 is representative, and his career EVG/60 is borderline 3rd/4th line.

    Chiasson “#44 RW 13 evg”. Similar thing, he’s a 3rd line EVG scorer if you look at his last 3 seasons.

    Archibald “top 20 PK”. This is technically true, but the man hasn’t yet played 150 career minutes on the PK. Plus his shot against and scoring chance against rates are about league average, so the current sparkling results most probably aren’t real.

    I’m optimistic that many of these guys can repeat what they did before, but it isn’t reasonable to EXPECT them all to replicate their career best results.

    I completely agree with your overall point that it’s important to block the young guys with competent NHLers until they’re ready, but these guys really are more “decent filler” than they are “keepers” IMO.

  109. defmn says:

    Georgexs:
    Let’s also look at total points scored by each team’s four lines (1F to 3F, 4F to 6F, 7F to 9F, 10F to 12F) and reserves (13+F). We’ll want to see how EDM compared line by line to the totals for the median team.

    Group, Median points, EDM points, EDM rank

    1F to 3F,210, 290, 2
    4F to 6F, 123, 84, 30
    7F to 9F, 79, 40, 31
    10F to 12F, 46, 30, 31

    I’m guessing this is not the path to the ‘balance picture’.

  110. jp says:

    Georgexs:
    Let’s also look at total points scored by each team’s four lines (1F to 3F, 4F to 6F, 7F to 9F, 10F to 12F) and reserves (13+F). We’ll want to see how EDM compared line by line to the totals for the median team.

    Group, Median points, EDM points, EDM rank

    1F to 3F,210, 290, 2
    4F to 6F, 123, 84, 30
    7F to 9F, 79, 40, 31
    10F to 12F, 46, 30, 31

    This is dumb, but I’m curious how the Oilers did in the 13+ group.

  111. Georgexs says:

    jp,

    Slightly below the median. Put away my laptop. The leaders were ANA and VCR, teams with injuries. TBL and BUF were at the other end. The median for 13+ was below the median for 9F to 12F.

  112. JimmyV1965 says:

    Just listened to Oilers preview on SiriusXM. They interviewed Tippet. Without a doubt he’s playing McDavid and Drai together. Not even a hesitation from the coach. He did say he might break them up, depending on the circumstances in a particular game.

  113. rickithebear says:

    Georgexs:
    Let’s also look at total points scored by each team’s four lines (1F to 3F, 4F to 6F, 7F to 9F, 10F to 12F) and reserves (13+F). We’ll want to see how EDM compared line by line to the totals for the median team.

    Group, Median points, EDM points, EDM rank

    1F to 3F,210, 290, 2
    4F to 6F, 123, 84, 30
    7F to 9F, 79, 40, 31
    10F to 12F, 46, 30, 31

    Their are 2 assists for 1 goal scored.
    Their is 1 goal for 1 goal scored.
    The most accurate reflection of winning offence generation is Goals.

    Goals mater.

    I stated time and again.
    41 even goals from bottom 7.14 man season games
    7.14 x 82 = 585 games.
    14 fwds played those 585 games to generate 41 evg.
    41evg/7.14 = 5.74 evg per bottom forward.

    Top 5 fwd were 31, 31, 19, 14, 13 evg
    I would suspect Neal, Archibald, Granlund, Jurco, Nygard, Khaira, Brodziak, Haas
    generate well above 65 Evg that is +24 evg or better.
    All 8 forwards would have to play 73 gm to eat up 585 games.

    Holland went out and got direct shooters for the bottom 7 forward spots.
    Do not care about the points from assists if we see 25-35 more evg from the 585 games that got us 41 evg last year.

  114. rickithebear says:

    JP:

    All I need to know about your analysis.
    Is you you said his shot against rates.
    Regress to ………
    Unless you break out the non scorable shots.
    Closed shots.
    how are you going to understand the real open shot density the forward PK pressure is helping to establish.

    You cannot Know what the regression will be.
    Up or down.

    Archibald was the
    Mid 2 Nd line total evg RW in18-19
    17-18 #58 RW .66 evg/60
    18-19 #33 RW .89 evg/60

    Granlund was
    #60 LW with 10 evg in 18-19
    #24 LW; #20 RW with 16 evg in 16-17
    14-15 #50 LW .73 evg/60
    16-17 # 26 LW .98 evg/60
    18-19 #66 LW .79 evg/60

    Jurco
    13-14 (20) .87 evg/60 #33 LW
    15-16 (22) .62 evg/60 #70 LW
    17-18 (24) 1.02 evg/60 #20 LW
    Top 2 Nd line LW at 20
    Mid 3rd line LW at 22
    Mid 1st line LW at 24

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree with the SHL description, however, this guy led that league in ESG and 20 GM’s were interested in signing him.To not see the value in an ELC contract to a player coveted by 2/3 of the managers in the league is fairly arrogant I would think, no?

    The arrogance here is in assuming that I don’t place any value in the player when I haven’t said that at all.

  116. ArmchairGM says:

    Side: ??

    Go back and re-read the post you were replying to.

    1) LT asserted that Archibald and Granlund are established bottom-6 players.

    2) I replied “They are cast-offs too though.”

    3) You chime in “I don’t see what your cast offs point has anything to do with someone being a bottom 6 forward or not. One can be a bottom 6 but also be a cast off from the team they were on.”

    4) I’m thinking you missed the word “too” in my reply to LT.

  117. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: There are some mitigating factors with respect to the Wings. Still Holland is more dinosaur than innovator. At the end of the day, he still signed some truly terrible contracts regardless of the underlying reason. At some point, you develop a past.

    Holland played it relatively safe with the only egregious unforced error being the Chaser contract. He went walkabout on Broberg and time will tell.

    The Lucic trade was his master stroke.

    Mostly Holland rearranged the deck chairs.In fairness, there may not have been better scenarios than that and certainly there are others far worse.

    Unless Tippett has Smith and Koskinen standing on their heads this is not a playoff team.

    All those 1-year contracts may be a boon at the TDL… although I’m not sure Holland has ever presided over a TDL fire-sale and Keith Gretzky was unwilling last year. I’m thinking this team will be out of contention by February and can then sell off all the “assets” they acquired this summer, getting a bunch of late round picks and lots of NHL playing time for the prospects.

  118. jp says:

    Georgexs:
    jp,

    Slightly below the median. Put away my laptop. The leaders were ANA and VCR, teams with injuries. TBL and BUF were at the other end. The median for 13+ was below the median for 9F to 12F.

    Thanks. And this is really interesting stuff.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    Trade Q: would you trade Klefbom for Laine 1-for-1? Assuming Laine is unsigned at the time of the trade.

    Conditions: the trade must happen this month, it cannot wait until we find out about the LHD prospects.

  120. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    JP:

    All I need to know about your analysis.
    Is you you said his shot against rates.
    Regress to ………
    Unless you break out the non scorable shots.
    Closed shots.
    how are you going to understand the real open shot density the forward PK pressure is helping to establish.

    You cannot Know what the regression will be.
    Up or down.

    It’s a circular argument I guess. If a player has low open shot density they have high on ice SV% and low GA. Do they have the high SV% because they were lucky? Or is the SV% high because of something they did on ice.

    I don’t have access to your open shot density data. And I also believe that shots and scoring chances ARE correlated with goals (they are, really). League wide defensemen do not control on ice SV%. That’s a fact. I highly doubt forwards do either.

    rickithebear:

    Archibald was the
    Mid 2 Nd line total evgRW in18-19
    17-18 #58 RW .66 evg/60
    18-19 #33 RW .89 evg/60

    Granlund was
    #60 LW with 10 evg in 18-19
    #24 LW; #20 RW with 16 evg in 16-17
    14-15 #50 LW .73 evg/60
    16-17 # 26 LW .98 evg/60
    18-19 #66 LW .79 evg/60

    Jurco
    13-14 (20) .87 evg/60 #33 LW
    15-16 (22) .62 evg/60 #70 LW
    17-18 (24) 1.02 evg/60 #20 LW
    Top 2 Nd line LW at 20
    Mid 3rd line LW at 22
    Mid 1st line LW at 24

    Yes, Archibald can score some goals. Granlund too, but 10EVG is not a 2nd line LW. Jurco is a massive stretch as a significant scorer. Why aren’t you quoting his years of 0.18 and 0.20 EVG/60?

  121. russ99 says:

    jp,

    jp: It’s a circular argument I guess. If a player has low open shot density they have high on ice SV% and low GA. Do they have the high SV% because they were lucky? Or is the SV% high because of something they did on ice.

    I don’t have access to your open shot density data. And I also believe that shots and scoring chances ARE correlated with goals (they are, really). League wide defensemen do not control on ice SV%. That’s a fact. I highly doubt forwards do either.

    Then why bother defending if it’s all the goalie.

    Just because it’s not easily quantifiable now doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

    In 5-10 years we’ll look at shot quality much differently and something like CF% taken from a team shot total with 10 skaters affecting it – distilled down to a number to claim value for one player will be looked upon as +/- is today.

    The effect of coverage on opponent shot quality would be one of the first things I’d study from tracker data, as that could show wide “Moneyball” levels of inbalance, and who wouldn’t want your goaltender to save considerably more shots if a correlation can be shown, as many suspect.

  122. jp says:

    russ99:
    jp,

    Then why bother defending if it’s all the goalie.

    Just because it’s not easily quantifiable now doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.

    In 5-10 years we’ll look at shot quality much differently and something like CF% taken from a team shot total with 10 skaters affecting it – distilled down to a number to claim value for one player will be looked upon as +/- is today.

    The effect of coverage on opponent shot quality would be one of the first things I’d study from tracker data, as that could show wide “Moneyball” levels of inbalance, and who wouldn’t want your goaltender to save considerably more shots if a correlation can be shown, as many suspect.

    I’m not saying defending does nothing. I’m saying the results of defending are reasonably well reflected in shots against and scoring chances against. The consistent delta in Russell’s CA vs. SA shows that he is doing something (blocking shots and reducing shots on net relative to how much the other team has the puck).

    I agree that tracking data will improve on what we have today, but Ricki is off hand dismissing all shot and scoring chance data because it doesn’t measure open shot density. IMO that isn’t at all reasonable.

    What I do know is that a defenseman’s on ice SV% is not a repeatable stat. It should be if defenders are affecting shot quality, but it is not repeatable.

    I think this is the original article I was confronted with: https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/07/defensemen-still-have-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/

    I didn’t believe the conclusions of the article at first so I repeated a similar analysis last summer. When you look at NHL defensemen across 2 seasons, and normalize their on ice SV% to team overall SV% (to try to remove team and goalie effects), there is literally zero correlation in SV% for a defenseman from year to year. None. (R squared was something like 0.014, I’d need to check the actual number). I was honestly shocked that the effect was zero but it’s real and I’m convinced.

    I suppose there is still room for a few outlier players to exist who do affect shot quality, but if so they’re very rare. It’s actually difficult to find player statistics that literally don’t correlate at all year to year. I don’t know what else to conclude other than defensemen (or at least the vast majority of them) do not control on ice SV%.

    By the way this discussion for me started with talk of Faulk being a target to acquire last year. I looked at his 5 straight -20 seasons and chronically low PDO and thought he MUST be responsible for that. Well guess who miraculously became a plus player and who’s PDO corrected to 1. Or maybe he suddenly learned how to play defense.

  123. Dairy Farmer Matt says:

    Anyone else hearing brassard to the oil on a 1 yr? George Laramie just tweeted about it

  124. Dairy Farmer Matt says:

    ^^^ Georges Laraque ***

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