The Need for Speed

Who is the fastest forward prospect in the Oilers prospect pool? Ryan McLeod might be the right answer and his boots give him a different possible career trajectory. How different? Jason Chimera scored 15 goals and 28 points in the AHL at age 20. He was a burner. He played his first NHL game in 2000-01 and his last one in 2017-18. Ryan McLeod is going to get several chances to find the range. Offense is going to be the issue.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NHLE

McLeod didn’t dominate the OHL offensively at 19 and it’s a concern. His NHLE at 18 (25.83) and at 19 (24.7) reminds me of previous draft picks who were shy offensively all down the line. Marc Pouliot (NHLE draft year: 22.6), Riley Nash (NHLE draft year: 16.3), Magnus Paajarvi (NHLE draft year: 17.1), Tyler Pitlick (NHLE draft year: 15.4) were all shy offensively on draft day. McLeod had a solid NHLE on his draft day but didn’t build on it. Important season ahead. Paging Dr. Woodcroft! A Jason Chimera fix is required. I’m not down on McLeod, but rather believe his speed and two-way acumen is badly needed. He needs to have enough of a bat to play No. 3 center, not there yet.

I ranked him at No. 119 for the 2014 draft and am pleased the Condors signed him. You never know, and Oilers scouting of college talent has been solid in recent seasons. Perhaps he’ll be the latest in a line of AHL deals that blossomed (Mark Arcobello, Josh Currie, Logan Day).

JESSE PULJUJARVI

I’m not sure if this is a new surge in the online efforts of Mr. Puljujarvi and his agent or just another outlet grabbing the original story. Either way, the latest item has JP looking for more of a feature role and 15 minutes a night (here). Prepare for a day of “entitled!” and “earn it!” It’s all a real shame, but these tactics won’t put more pressure on Ken Holland. I wrote about it here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, lots to talk about. Jays talk with Cam Lewis at Jays Nation, we’ll check in on the Pittsburgh Steelers with Jacob Klinger of Penn Live, and Scott Wheeler will tell us about the impressive 2020 draft as well. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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128 Responses to "The Need for Speed"

  1. jtblack says:

    unlike a lot of you full time, year round maniacs (yes, maniacs!) … I love the summer break from Hockey .. enjoy the outdoors, family time, follow the pga, get ready for NFL ….

    BUT, it’s time. My withdrawal has bottomed out. Time for some hockey! Time for Training Camp!

    I think this team is slightly better, but not a playoff team … Connor, Leon and RNH had career seasons last year …and EDM got 78 points. That’s a problem. So it all comes down to the bottom of the order and I don’t see it … better sure (impossible not to be) … but good enough compared to Vegas? Winnipeg? Nashville? San Jose? ….. NOPE

    But once an Oilers Fan, Always an Oilers Fan. 39 years and counting …..

    LET’S GO OILERS!

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hey, Jesse, though to reach your goal in the NHL if you don’t sign a contract and come to camp and play.

    How about you earn a lineup spot and then earn that top 6 ice you want.

    The only way to do that is to actually sign, play and work your ass off.

    Your goals are up to you.

    You have to help yourself.

    You have the talent and that team has the use for a player you want to be.

    Go and earn it.

    ———————

    “I want a team where I get a place in one of the first two lines and where I get to play for 15 minutes per game. Then I could show what I’m going for. That is my main goal”

    Jesse Puljujarvi speaking with Finnish television station Laari

  3. jp says:

    Some nice examples of players with similar skill sets to McLeod making it despite limited offense. Even if the scoring plateaus at Paajarvi levels he could still have a career with his size, skating and apparently solid 2-way game.

    A 30 point 3C would be a great result if he can get there while also winning draws and keeping the puck away from his own net. And maybe there’s more offense than that, the trajectory looked much more optimistic before he plateaued this season.

  4. Professor Q says:

    jtblack:
    unlike a lot of you full time, year round maniacs (yes, maniacs!) … I love the summer break from Hockey .. enjoy the outdoors, family time,follow the pga, get ready for NFL ….

    BUT, it’s time. My withdrawal has bottomed out.Time for some hockey! Time for Training Camp!

    I think this team is slightly better, but not a playoff team … Connor, Leon and RNH had career seasons last year …and EDM got 78 points. That’s a problem.So it all comes down to the bottom of the order and I don’t see it … better sure (impossible not to be) … but good enough compared to Vegas? Winnipeg? Nashville? San Jose?…..NOPE

    But once an Oilers Fan, Always an Oilers Fan.39 years and counting …..

    LET’S GO OILERS!

    They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

    Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

  5. Professor Q says:

    jp:
    Some nice examples of players with similar skill sets to McLeod making it despite limited offense. Even if the scoring plateaus at Paajarvi levels he could still have a career with his size, skating and apparently solid 2-way game.

    A 30 point 3C would be a great result if he can get there while also winning draws and keeping the puck away from his own net. And maybe there’s more offense than that, the trajectory looked much more optimistic before he plateaued this season.

    Benson – McLeod – Maksimov?

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    A translation from the original Klingon of LT’s JP article:

    “Where does Jesse Puljujärvi play hockey next season? The question is redness, but the answer is even cooler for the 21-year-old Finn who wants to leave the Edmonton Oilers.
    – Puljujärvi is and has been convinced that he needs a change, says agent Markus Lehto.

    He was predicted to be a successful and sharp goal scorer in Edmonton. But since Jesse Puljujärvi was drafted and debuted in the NHL, the success has not been. Being economical with playing time in a less prominent role has created frustration for the big forward. During the summer he has said that he is ready to leave the club, and that he may even consider playing for a year in Europe.

    – I want a team where I get a place in one of the first two chains and where I get to play for 15 minutes per game. Then I could show what I’m going for. That is my main goal, Puljujärvi tells the Youtube program Lääri.

    Oilers have tried to beat the Finns without success. Data during the summer has told us that Puljujärvi could still think of playing for Edmonton, but that information denies Lehto.

    – This is not a scam attempt. Puljujärvi is and has been convinced that he needs a change. He is an NHL player.
    “A DISAPPOINTMENT”

    Puljujärvi has delivered a ton of points during his first three NHL seasons. At 137 basic series matches, the right-hander has scored 17 goals and a total of 37 points. A significantly lower total than the Oilers expected when drafting him as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2016 draft.

    – The situation we are in now is a disappointment for everyone. But a lot of players have found themselves in the same situation, says forward forward Markus Lehto in an interview with Helsingin Sanomat.

    As a restricted free agent, Puljujärvi must sign a new contract before December 1, otherwise he will be suspended from NHL games for the rest of the year. Should he not return there is the chance that he will be able to play in Europe where the interest is great according to Lehto. The former club, Kärpet, should be one of the stakeholders:

    – A player at this level gets 30 contract offers in one hour. This is not about Puljujärvi not finding a club in Europe. It’s about other things, says Lehto.

    Continuation will follow.”

    I think the general gist is easy to understand.

  7. frjohnk says:

    jp:
    Some nice examples of players with similar skill sets to McLeod making it despite limited offense. Even if the scoring plateaus at Paajarvi levels he could still have a career with his size, skating and apparently solid 2-way game.

    A 30 point 3C would be a great result if he can get there while also winning draws and keeping the puck away from his own net. And maybe there’s more offense than that, the trajectory looked much more optimistic before he plateaued this season.

    Very few 19 year olds who play in the OHL and score at about 1pt/game actually make the NHL.
    https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/player-age/19-year-old-ohl-forwards.html
    Very few.

    Ive been an Oiler fan for far too long to use “hope” in my expectations.

  8. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    “I want a team where I get a place in one of the first two lines and where I get to play for 15 minutes per game. Then I could show what I’m going for. That is my main goal”

    Jesse Puljujarvi speaking with Finnish television station Laari

    Yeah that’s a shame. He was shy on the TOI, 11:15, 13:22 and 11:57 this past season.

    But he can’t reasonably complain about opportunity, his career TOI with Oilers centers:

    McDavid 406
    Nuge 399
    Strome 307
    Draisaitl 283
    Letestu 64
    Brodziak 52
    Cave 34

  9. jp says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Thanks for the translation!

  10. jp says:

    frjohnk: Very few 19 year olds who play in the OHL and score at about 1pt/game actually make the NHL.
    https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/player-age/19-year-old-ohl-forwards.html
    Very few.

    Ive been an Oiler fan for far too long to use “hope” in my expectations.

    Completely fair. But as LT said he’ll get multiple chances. I’ve not said I expect him to have an NHL career, just looking at the optimistic view.

  11. Darth Tu says:

    Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

    Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

    I’m not sure on the Vegas “fluctuate” part – they kind of paid the price for poor referee decisions in that game 7 of round 1. Vegas easily could have went to the Western Final if that hadn’t happened…

  12. Ben says:

    Arriver derrière pour Lafreniere!

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve seen a few comments here or there about Ryan McLeod being a 3C option for the Oilers this year and even on October 2.

    My thoughts are “calm your tits”.

    Yes, McLeod could very well be the 3C option for the future – he’s got that type of game – he’s got the size and speed combined with decent offensive talent. 2-way acumen and faceoffs.

    At the same time, center is a damn hard position at the NHL level and its alot to ask a 20 year old to play in the NHL in his first year pro, let alone, at center. Not to mention, he struggled at times in the OHL.

    I think its reasonable to expect McLeod to play bottom 6 center in the AHL this year, maybe move up to the top 6 if and when a guy like Marody is recalled.

    I expect McLeod to have an up and down season in the AHL this year and spend next year in the AHL as well in a more prominent role.

  14. blainer says:

    JP is another Yak. This player does not understand the commitment it takes to be a pro and a good teammate IMO.

    From all the poison coming out of his own mouth it will be very difficult for Holland to find him a landing spot. This kid has a lot of growing up to do.

    If I were another GM I would steer clear of this problem child period. I think we can all agree after all the verbal coming from the player that the bulk of his development problems did not lie nearly as much with the organization as much as they are with the player. The exact same way I felt about Yak.

    Let JP find his own way in Europe until he grows up and maybe then we might find a taker for the player. He is not getting us much now that is for sure. JMO.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ben:
    Arriver derrière pour Lafreniere!

    derniere or derriere?

    I suppose both could work. Play like ass

  16. jp says:

    Professor Q: Benson – McLeod – Maksimov?

    You never know. I’m hopeful Benson at least might be able to fill a spot on the first two lines.

  17. Coiler says:

    Thanks for the translation.

    JP and his agent can talk and talk and talk until the cows come home. I feel that the more they talk they more they make themselves look like a bunch of fools. It’s rather hard to keep feeling for the kid when things like this come to light.

    30 contract offers in one hour? Please. We’ve heard of his former club having an interest and that’s it. The NHL and it’s 30 GM’s aren’t stupid. They’ve seen him play and know of his deficiencies. And they also probably know Holland isn’t going to bite at the smallest offer. The player’s hockey sense just isn’t there in the way it should be for a player picked at number 4 overall.

    Jesse has some serious growing up to do IMO and he’s been spending too much time drinking his own kool-aid or watching his you tube highlight videos. I can’t get over the audacity of this kid stating that he wants top two line status and minutes. On a team bereft of talented wingers these last two years he showed that he couldn’t even earn those minutes here.

    Scouts shit the bed on this one pretty badly. Chiarelli took a massive dump of biblical proportions afterwards. And this kid kept on drinking his kool-aid.

    Thanks for the memories JP. Ciao! Auf Wiedersehn! Sayonara! Please let the door smack you in the ass on the way out.

  18. dustrock says:

    The math on McLeod doesn’t factor in his boots, fair enough, but his scoring rates do tell us it’s highly, highly unlikely he’ll be any kind of productive player in the NHL.

    I don’t think it’s the tools he has that’s the issue.

    And also special kudos to LT for continuing to inject our daily hockey blog fix directly into our veins over the summer AND posting frequently at The Athletic whilst his colleagues are nowhere to be seen. 😉

  19. Durag says:

    I really don’t get what JP’s agent is trying to accomplish here. So reading between the lines, he’s saying to other teams “I have no interest in proving myself in the bottom 6 before moving up”. Why would anyone want to take on that headache? Please just shut up and score 30 goals in Finland so we can trade you.

  20. McNuge93 says:

    Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

    Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

    Agree there’s a chance. Every year there’s a couple of surprise teams. Last year; Carolina, Colorado and I would even say the Flames were a surprise.

    But, a lot of things have to go right for the Oilers. Starting with coaching and goaltending, and ending with progression of young defenders and better play by bottom six forwaads.

  21. blainer says:

    Coiler:
    Thanks for the translation.

    JP and his agent can talk and talk and talk until the cows come home. I feel that the more they talk they more they make themselves look like a bunch of fools. It’s rather hard to keep feeling for the kid when things like this come to light.

    30 contract offers in one hour? Please. We’ve heard of his former club having an interest and that’s it. The NHL and it’s 30 GM’s aren’t stupid. They’ve seen him play and know of his deficiencies. And they also probably know Holland isn’t going to bite at the smallest offer. The player’s hockey sense just isn’t there in the way it should be for a player picked at number 4 overall.

    Jesse has some serious growing up to do IMO and he’s been spending too much time drinking his own kool-aid or watching his you tube highlight videos. I can’t get over the audacity of this kid stating that he wants top two line status and minutes. On a team bereft of talented wingers these last two years he showed that he couldn’t even earn those minutes here.

    Scouts shit the bed on this one pretty badly. Chiarelli took a massive dump of biblical proportions afterwards. And this kid kept on drinking his kool-aid.

    Thanks for the memories JP. Ciao! Auf Wiedersehn! Sayonara! Please let the door smack you in the ass on the way out.

    Well said. This kid should just shut up already. He needs to find a good woman to get his head straight as that is what often happens with us guys. It is something I needed for sure.

    I remember the Danny Cleary situation well.. at one point in his career his was touted as a possible 1st overall pick. He was definetly drinking his own koolaid and will be the first to admit it now too.

    He found a great woman and had to eat a ton of humble pie but he always had the talent .. all he needed was to understand that you had to put the work in and be a great teammate. Luckily for him he got his shit together and got a PTO with Detroit and saved his career.

    JP is on a similar career path and I would hazzard to guess with his latest verbal he just shut down a few more options in the NHL. Someone should explain to him that comments made in Europe make their way to North America.

    Grow up kid.. In life you have to earn your spot. Very disappointed with this project of a kid and his agent for not getting him to just stop talking to the media.

  22. HT Joe says:

    blainer: JP is another Yak. This player does not understand the commitment it takes to be a pro and a good teammate IMO.

    How dare you!! JP wishes he were Yak.
    – Yak led the team in goals in his rookie season.
    – Yak’s NHL career ended up with 350 GP, 62 goals, 136 points (0.389 points per game), and a 9.5% shooting percentage
    – Jesse’s NHL career ended up with (for now) 139 GP, 17 goals, 37 points (0.266 points per game), and a 7.4% shooting percentage.

    For comparison, in Yak’s first 48 games, he scored as many goals as Jesse did in his full 139 game NHL career.

    I’d take Yak back over Jesse.

  23. GBandQ says:

    Professor Q,

    Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

    Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

    hopefully Holland has one more card to play before the season starts. guess we’ll see who gets a PTO invite, too. Missed opportunity on Nichushkin at $850K, IMHO.

    They could surprise, but a lot would have to go right for that to happen. If Caleb Jones, Marody or Benson, and at least one of the Euro imports break through in a big way, AND the goalers deliver in a big way, then we can start getting excited a bit.

    Who knows? Maybe an injury opens a spot and someone unexpected goes supernova.

  24. Ribs says:

    Puljujarvi unintended tranlsation to me… “I want to play in Russia!”

    It will be interesting to see if there is another not-good hockey team out there that has those big minutes they’d be willing to dedicate to him based on the output he’s spewed forth so far. Kings, maybe?

  25. dustrock says:

    Ribs:
    Puljujarvi unintended tranlsation to me… “I want to play in Russia!”

    It will be interesting to see if there is another not-good hockey team out there that has those big minutes they’d be willing to dedicate to him based on the output he’s spewed forth so far. Kings, maybe?

    I’m sure McLellan would be overjoyed.

  26. Munny says:

    We don’t know how much McLeod’s offensive numbers were affected by linemates and usage last year. Nor do prospects develop in a straight line. But the plateau in production is a concern and should be noted.

    Since he appears to be a middling scorer in Junior, without a giant leap forward, he’s going to have to find a different path to make the Bigs. A 4L who might top out at 3L sounds right. He has some natural abilities that suggest if he can crack the mental side, he should be a lock for a blue collar career.

    And who knows… maybe one day the game slows down for him.

  27. Reja says:

    Durag:
    I really don’t get what JP’s agent is trying to accomplish here. So reading between the lines, he’s saying to other teams “I have no interest in proving myself in the bottom 6 before moving up”. Why would anyone want to take on that headache? Please just shut up and score 30 goals in Finland so we can trade you.

    Reverse negotiating.

  28. Munny says:

    We had gone two weeks without Pujo damaging his hockey career, so it was time.

  29. HT Joe says:

    Reja: Reverse negotiating.

    Is that like “Opposite George”?

  30. jtblack says:

    Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

    Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

    yah, def seems to be a few teams that fall out each year.

    Of the 8 playoff teams, I onlyl see Winnipeg dropping dramatically. They are still GOOD, but have lost a lot of back end talent (Trouba , Myers). Their LHD was their weak point and now their RHD is also thin. Plus they may have Connor and Laine starting late, depending on contracts.

    AZ, CHI & VAN all missed the playoffs and I think they ALL Got better in the off season.

    I see Minny, Edm, Ana & L.A. battling it out at the bottom of the conference.

  31. Side says:

    It always amazes me how players and agents alike think that what they are doing and saying is beneficial for their careers.

    As someone who is not in the hockey culture/industry/life at all, even I know that Jesse and his agent are doing the absolute worst thing possible in this situation.

    How do they not see this? It boggles.

  32. pts2pndr says:

    dustrock:
    The math on McLeod doesn’t factor in his boots, fair enough, but his scoring rates do tell us it’s highly, highly unlikely he’ll be any kind of productive player in the NHL.

    I don’t think it’s the tools he has that’s the issue.

    And also special kudos to LT for continuing to inject our daily hockey blog fix directly into our veins over the summer AND posting frequently at The Athletic whilst his colleagues are nowhere to be seen.

    In truth he is not applying for top six forward. Speed causes mistakes and he has speed and size. He can carve out a nice career as a third line defensive centre. This will take time but a cost effective defensive third line centre would be a welcome addition. Every young player doesn’t have to be a home run to have value. We will know more after a full year in the AHL.

  33. defmn says:

    pts2pndr: In truth he is not applying for top six forward. Speed causes mistakes and he has speed and size. He can carve out a nice career as a third line defensive centre. This will take time but a cost effective defensive third line centre would be a welcome addition. Every young player doesn’t have to be a home run to have value. We will know more after a full year in the AHL.

    I agree. He just needs his speed and size to give him enough opportunities that he can figure out how to go to the blue paint to get his 12-15 goals every season. To me that comes down to coaching and maturity so he has a chance.

  34. jp says:

    jtblack: yah, def seems to be a few teams that fall out each year.

    Of the 8 playoff teams, I onlyl see Winnipeg dropping dramatically. They are still GOOD, but have lost a lot of back end talent (Trouba , Myers).Their LHD was their weak point and now their RHD is also thin.Plus they may have Connor and Laine starting late, depending on contracts.

    AZ, CHI & VAN all missed the playoffs and I think they ALL Got better in the off season.

    I see Minny, Edm, Ana & L.A. battling it out at the bottom of the conference.

    Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).

    No one picked the Oilers to be good in 16-17. Then the next year many picked them as cup contenders. You just don’t know how things will play out.

    I don’t mean to say who makes the playoff is actually random. And I’m not arguing that the Oilers are going to be good, but there’s a very fine line between success and failure. Team success is extremely volatile. It shouldn’t be a big surprise if the Oilers are good this season. Likewise, your expectation could well prove correct.

  35. Reja says:

    HT Joe: Is that like “Opposite George”?

    Yes very much like “opposite Yrjo”

  36. jtblack says:

    jp: Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).

    No one picked the Oilers to be good in 16-17. Then the next year many picked them as cup contenders. You just don’t know how things will play out.

    I don’t mean to say who makes the playoff is actually random. And I’m not arguing that the Oilers are going to be good, but there’s a very fine line between success and failure. Team success is extremely volatile. It shouldn’t be a big surprise if the Oilers are good this season. Likewise, your expectation could well prove correct.

    There will always be some randomness. That’s the beauty of Sports. But I thiink if you dig deeper, you see that the Cream Rises to the Top year after year. That depends on what stage of the Cycle a team is in …

    But for example. in the EAST all of these teams have made the playoffs the last 3 YEARS.

    WASH
    PITT
    BOS
    TOR
    CBJ

    Tampa missed by 1 point in 2017. Essentially you have 6 teams that have been in each year. Leaving 2 spots for the Randoms to try and get in.

    The WEST has been more voliatile, but the Cream still Rises.

    ST.L
    NASH
    WPG
    SJ
    have all been regulars in the last 3 years. WPG finished 9th in 2017. St.L finished 9th in 2018. Otherwise they are regulars.

    The WEST is def more wife open as we have seen ANA & L.A, winning clusters get too old after being competetive for a decade +.

    Although Edmonton did surprise in 2017, let’s not forget they have made the playoffs once in 13 years. So the reality is their “surprise” ratio is 8%.

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    It’s actually comical how desperate JP and his agent are to force a trade and how little actual leverage they have.

    Jesse is becoming the Le’Veon Bell of the NHL. And that comparison flatters JP, because Bell had actually produced as a player.

    Jesse has no track record, no allies, no leverage and no clue.

    Go home and get your shinebox Jesse.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack: yah, def seems to be a few teams that fall out each year.

    Of the 8 playoff teams, I onlyl see Winnipeg dropping dramatically. They are still GOOD, but have lost a lot of back end talent (Trouba , Myers).Their LHD was their weak point and now their RHD is also thin.Plus they may have Connor and Laine starting late, depending on contracts.

    AZ, CHI & VAN all missed the playoffs and I think they ALL Got better in the off season.

    I see Minny, Edm, Ana & L.A. battling it out at the bottom of the conference.

    Dallas and Colorado also got much better in the offseason so if Winnipeg slides it won’t make much difference.

    The Oilers only playoff hope will be to finish in the top three
    In the Pacific.

  39. Pescador says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    It’s actually comical how desperate JP and his agent are to force a trade and how little actual leverage they have.

    Jesse is becoming the Le’Veon Bell of the NHL. And that comparison flatters JP, because Bell had actually produced as a player.

    Jesse has no track record, no allies, no leverage and no clue.

    Go home and get your shinebox Jesse.

    Let’s hope for your sake Jesse and his agent aren’t heading over to his mom’s house for spaghetti, meat balls & a shovel

  40. Pescador says:

    jtblack: There will always be some randomness. That’s the beauty of Sports. But I thiink if you dig deeper, you see that the Cream Rises to the Top year after year.That depends on what stage of the Cycle a team is in …

    But for example.in the EAST all of these teams have made the playoffs the last 3 YEARS.

    WASH
    PITT
    BOS
    TOR
    CBJ

    Tampa missed by 1 point in 2017.Essentially you have 6 teams that have been in each year. Leaving 2 spots for the Randoms to try and get in.

    The WEST has been more voliatile, but the Cream still Rises.

    ST.L
    NASH
    WPG
    SJhave all been regulars in the last 3 years.WPG finished 9th in 2017.St.L finished 9th in 2018.Otherwise they are regulars.

    The WEST is def more wife open as we have seen ANA & L.A, winning clusters get too old after being competetive for a decade +.

    Although Edmonton did surprise in 2017, let’s not forget they have made the playoffs once in 13 years. So the reality is their “surprise” ratio is 8%.

    Great post, I think it’s fair to say the divide between hope & reality is larger in Oilerville than it is in other markets

  41. jp says:

    jtblack: There will always be some randomness. That’s the beauty of Sports. But I thiink if you dig deeper, you see that the Cream Rises to the Top year after year.That depends on what stage of the Cycle a team is in …

    But for example.in the EAST all of these teams have made the playoffs the last 3 YEARS.

    WASH
    PITT
    BOS
    TOR
    CBJ

    Tampa missed by 1 point in 2017.Essentially you have 6 teams that have been in each year. Leaving 2 spots for the Randoms to try and get in.

    The WEST has been more voliatile, but the Cream still Rises.

    ST.L
    NASH
    WPG
    SJhave all been regulars in the last 3 years.WPG finished 9th in 2017.St.L finished 9th in 2018.Otherwise they are regulars.

    The WEST is def more wife open as we have seen ANA & L.A, winning clusters get too old after being competetive for a decade +.

    Although Edmonton did surprise in 2017, let’s not forget they have made the playoffs once in 13 years. So the reality is their “surprise” ratio is 8%.

    Agreed there is a fair bit of stability amongst the randomness. I was just trying to say that multiple teams over or underperform each year, and that it’s near impossible to predict those occurrences. The Oilers could very well be one of them. But yeah, they are likely to continue to suck.

  42. jtblack says:

    “Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).”

    PLAYOFFS – how many times a team has made / how many years
    EAST – BIG 4

    PITT – 13 / 13 (Crosby and Malkin are OK)
    WASH – 11 / 12
    BOS – 10 / 12
    TAMPA – 5 / 6

    ADD TOR AND CBJ ARE BOTH 3 / 3. TOR looks very good again. CBJ got dismantled and will most likely miss.

    WEST
    BIG 3

    SAN JOSE – 14 / 15
    ST.LOUIS – 7 / 8
    NASH – 5 / 5

    VGS, WPG, COL all 2 / 2. I WOULD expect all 6 teams to make it again this year.

    So although it seems a bit random, I bet most Lowetider’s could predict 12 of 16 playoff teams. Leaving only a few spots left for a pile of teams.

  43. rickithebear says:

    Those who have been on here since 05-06.

    The most important thing LT has provided here
    1. A place to come to read and present opinions (non data supported ideas) and ideas (data supported)
    2. Measure of any org is the pennants and crowns.

    In hockey 2 teams are champions each year.
    1 wins 2 cup & Conf
    1 wins 1 Conf.
    That cannot be taken away from an org.

    If we had 16-17 212 GA we make playoffs 16-17; 17-18; 18-19.
    Our teams problem is GA.

    Holland added
    Neal, Archibald, Granlund, Jurco, Haas, Nygard that could potentially add 35+ evg to the 41 evg from
    The 41 evg the 7.14 (585 fwd gm) fwd seasons from 14 skaters generated last year.

    The biggest addition maybe Smith a repetative Top 3 +ve Open HD sh save% goalie.
    And
    Tippett/ Playfair demanding def coverage responsibility at all times.

  44. rickithebear says:

    Jet black:
    The need for 3-1-1-1 structure has dragged down the median save % from .918 to .912.
    Creating turmoil in the high % 3-1-1-1 structure teams.
    They higher % 3-2-1 with strong Open HD Dman and goalie cores are playoff repetative.

    As Edmonton would have been with high % 3-2-1 GA results we had from 16-17.
    Would have been 3 playoffs in a row.

  45. jtblack says:

    jp: Agreed there is a fair bit of stability amongst the randomness. I was just trying to say that multiple teamsover or underperform each year, and that it’s near impossible to predict those occurrences. The Oilers could very well be one of them. But yeah, they are likely to continue to suck.

    yes, there will always be some swings on who gets in and who doesn’t …. But the more I look at it, it looks like you have 2 or 3 spots open in each conference for the bottom 10 teams ….

    It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out … I just don’t see Edmonton leap frogging 5 teams and supplanting one of the playoff teams … As someone else mentioned, prov their only hope is to be Top 3 in the Division, meaning they have to beat Calgary, AZ and VAN. CAL didn’t improve but had 107 points. AZ and VAN did improve in my eyes.

    Time will tell!

  46. rickithebear says:

    jp: Yeah that’s a shame. He was shy on the TOI, 11:15, 13:22 and 11:57 this past season.

    But he can’t reasonably complain about opportunity, his career TOI with Oilers centers:

    McDavid 406
    Nuge 399
    Strome 307
    Draisaitl 283
    Letestu 64
    Brodziak 52
    Cave 34

    9 th highest EVTOI for wingers playing with Mcdavid in 18-19. 67 min EVTOI.
    8 starting wingers.
    They did not even give him 4 th line winger even minutes with Mcdavid.
    They gave him PB forward even minutes.

    After he had a 19 yr evg season in 17-18 superior to M. Tkachuk 19 yr season.

    PC & Tmac usage of Puljarvis young talent was disgraceful.

    67 min with Mcdavid after being better even goal scorer than Matt Tkachuk @ 19.

  47. jtblack says:

    rickithebear,

    “If we had 16-17 212 GA we make playoffs 16-17; 17-18; 18-19.
    Our teams problem is GA.”

    GA in the WEST last year

    CHI – 292
    EDM – 274

    Tippett has some work to do ….

  48. jp says:

    jtblack:
    “Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).”

    PLAYOFFS – how many times a team has made / how many years
    EAST – BIG 4

    PITT – 13 / 13(Crosby and Malkin are OK)
    WASH – 11 / 12
    BOS – 10 / 12
    TAMPA – 5 / 6

    ADD TOR AND CBJ ARE BOTH 3 / 3. TOR looks very good again. CBJ got dismantled and will most likely miss.

    WEST
    BIG 3

    SAN JOSE – 14 / 15
    ST.LOUIS – 7 / 8
    NASH – 5 / 5

    VGS, WPG, COLall 2 / 2. I WOULD expect all 6 teams to make it again this year.

    So although it seems a bit random, I bet most Lowetider’s could predict 12 of 16 playoff teams.Leaving only a few spots left for a pile of teams.

    This is what GeorgeXS posted 2 days ago:

    “Which teams make the playoffs?
    One reasonable guess would be the teams that made the playoffs in the previous season.
    Season, # of playoff teams that made the playoffs in the previous season
    00, 14
    01, 11
    02, 10
    03, 12
    05, 11
    06, 11
    07, 11
    08, 11
    09, 10
    10, 13
    11, 12
    12, 11
    13, 11
    14, 9
    15, 11
    16, 9
    17, 9
    18, 11
    1. Since 2000-01 (when the league expanded to 30 teams), previous season playoff teams have always been the favorites to make the playoffs.
    2. In 3 of the past 5 seasons, we’ve seen the odds drop close to even, i.e., only 9 of 16 prior playoff teams re-qualified, allowing 7 new teams to meet the threshold. This amount of turnover is a new development.
    The playoff field appears more open than it used to be, less predictable. In fact, 3 of the finalists in the past 4 seasons didn’t qualify for the playoffs in their prior season (SJS in 15-16, VGK in 17-18, STL in 18-19). I think we have to go back to 05-06 when we had 2 finalists that hadn’t appeared in the playoffs in the previous full season (CAR vs. EDM).”

    Yes, there are strong teams that make it most years, but in the past 5 playoff seasons there has been 40% (39%) turnover year to year (31 new teams in 80 playoff slots). In fact going back 7 years 5-7 teams each year made the playoffs after missing the previous year.

    That’s a lot of turnover, and probably suggests most Lowetiders would fail to pick 12 of 16 correctly.

    In any case, that’s also different than saying the Oilers will be one of the 5-7 teams who missed in 2019 that make it in 2020, but there will be surprises.

    IMO there’s more chance for a big turn-around by the Oilers than you’re giving credit for. But I also like to drink the Kool Aid and am fully aware the big turn-around isn’t probable.

  49. rickithebear says:

    The nice thing about bringing in non elite forwards up at age 22-23 from AHL.

    They get their chance to prove they can play in NHL
    and
    are usually willing to take a reasonable cap hit 3 yr. contract for 2 Nd line evg production. After

    Yet you still hold RFA rights after they have turned themselves into a high value tradeable asset age 25-26.
    Can usually be replaced by a well cooked 22-23 yr old prospect from the minors like Benson, Mcleod, Maximov.

    With 1st line forward age NHLE talent jumping the 22-23 age cue.
    To replace high priced top 6 fwd veterans.

    Lavoie Even age NHLE says he may be a cue jumper.
    Mcleod has not shown top 6 (#50-62 position) NHLE that has great value for a #7 to #10 fwd.
    Maroody and Benson are almost there.
    You want higher standard (@ 22-23) than the player they are replacing.

  50. HT Joe says:

    A few weeks (months?) ago, I was pissed off, so I went through all of the team records since Katz bought the team (2008-2009 season). Over that period, I did confirm that the Oilers have the worst regular season record of all the teams (second last – Buffalo).

    But also from that data, I identified that the very best teams that averaged at least 100 points per season over those 11 years (Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Chicago, St. Louis – yes, really, etc.) are the teams that won the cup. Some of those teams only won once (St. Louis and Washington), and I think the only outlier was LA (they seemed to play better in the playoffs than their ongoing regular season would indicate). But the recipe for winning a cup seemed to be putting together a good enough team to coast into the playoffs year in, year out (not just squeak in). I guess it’s like buying more lottery tickets (again LA was the exception in 11 years).

  51. PennersPancakes says:

    rickithebear: After he had a 19 yr evg season in 17-18 superior to M. Tkachuk 19 yr season.

    I guess technically? Both had 10 EVG while Pulju played 11 fewer games. I think thats really forcing a point that isnt accurate in the grand scheme of things. This only works because of a fine line focus on age. Theyre both from the same draft just 5 months apart, if you go by draft season, draft +1, draft+2 etc theres no comparison once theyre in the NHL.

    Thachuk is unfortunately for us worlds better than Pulju is and likely ever will be. Tkachuk has more even strength goals than Pulju has points total.

  52. rickithebear says:

    JTblack:
    When I started Looking at video to seperate GA by side responsibility of Dmen.

    The best I have seen is 2GA in 25gm 325:36 to Mark Fistric side.
    One was the remarkable Jagr GA that almost no Dman would stop.
    325:36/60min = 5.4267
    2GA/5.426760 min segments = .369 evga/60

    Nurse – Larsson
    18-19 4.23 evga/60
    Anyone want to look at video of all the evg goals Larsson was on for having started the shift with nurse.
    How many were to nurses side with no nurse in sight.
    Or
    The new dpartner coming in as 5 th skater cause of Nurse late bench change.
    With no 2D-1G re-established.

  53. rickithebear says:

    PennerPancakes:
    10 evg with a lot less evtoi.
    Tkachuk played with elite even play forwards Backlund & Frolik.
    Puljujarvi played 70% with Lucic & Khaira on LW.

  54. rickithebear says:

    HT Joe:

    When I looked at past final 8 and final 4 teams last year and 2 years ago.
    40% more top GA teams made the final 8 than top GF teams.
    7 of 8 teams in final 4 were top GA teams.

    Get in the playoffs.
    Generate sub 2.00 ga in your 4 series wins.
    Good chance you will be in final 4 or final 2.

  55. jp says:

    rickithebear: 9 th highest EVTOI for wingers playing with Mcdavid in 18-19. 67 min EVTOI.
    8 starting wingers.
    They did not even give him 4 th line winger even minutes with Mcdavid.
    They gave him PB forward even minutes.

    After he had a 19 yr evg season in 17-18 superior to M. Tkachuk 19 yr season.

    PC & Tmac usage of Puljarvis young talent was disgraceful.

    67 min with Mcdavid after being better even goal scorer than Matt Tkachuk @ 19.

    Well Puljujarvi did miss almost half the season.

    Also, Puljujarvi’s centers in 18-19 were:
    RNH 242 (incl 25 min with RNH/McDavid)
    Draisaitl 74 (incl 19 min with Drai/McDavid)
    Strome 69
    McDavid 67
    Brodziak 52
    Cave 34

    Those aren’t 4th line or PB minutes, even if he didn’t get time with McDavid (this year). I don’t know what there is to complain about honestly.

  56. jtblack says:

    jp,

    “That’s a lot of turnover, and probably suggests most Lowetiders would fail to pick 12 of 16 correctly.”

    I think we might have to have a “PLAYOFF PICK DEATH MARCH” type pool and see who can get 12 or more correct. and IF anybody can nail all 16.

    LT. Can I put out this challenge to the group, if I keep track of it?

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    ProfessorQ: Benson – McLeod – Maksimov?

    Could be, however, for the two wingers, I won’t discount their potential for top 6.

    With Maksi, while he’s definitely a shooter/scorer with the potential to pop as a goal scorer, as you indicate, he also has a broader skill-set and the ability to make it as a 3rd line type guy with skill.

    He’s got a plus defensive/2-way game and was a strong PK guy this past year. He’s aggressive (goes overboard sometimes) and, from accounts, an extremely hard worker.

    The hope is a top 6 goal scorer but there are other ways for him to “make it”.

    Of course, he’s no sure bet to be an NHL player but he’s got a range.

  58. Harpers Hair says:

    jtblack:
    jp,

    “That’s a lot of turnover, and probably suggests most Lowetiders would fail to pick 12 of 16 correctly.”

    I think we might have to have a “PLAYOFF PICK DEATH MARCH” type pool and see who can get 12 or more correct. and IF anybody can nail all 16.

    LT.Can I put out this challenge to the group, if I keep track of it?

    Should be bonus points for picking them in order..

  59. PennersPancakes says:

    rickithebear:
    PennerPancakes:
    10 evg with a lot less evtoi.
    Tkachuk played with elite even play forwards Backlund & Frolik.
    Puljujarvi played 70% with Lucic & Khaira on LW.

    Youre still comparing draft+1 to draft+2. Yeah there is about a minute 18 more per game for Thachuk. So I guess Puju is more efficient? I have a feeling that Thachuk might have earned it with the 17 more EV assists he had.

    Pulju isnt the way he is because of deployment or linemates. They probably didnt help but the guy just isnt that great at hockey. At least right now. Hopefully that changes but Im not holding my breath.

  60. jtblack says:

    Harpers Hair: Should be bonus points for picking them in order..

    if LT gives me the blessing, I will set out the challenge and keep track … would be interesting ..

  61. Lowetide says:

    jtblack: if LT gives me the blessing, I will set out the challenge and keep track … would be interesting ..

    Go for it!

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Coiler:
    Thanks for the translation.

    JP and his agent can talk and talk and talk until the cows come home. I feel that the more they talk they more they make themselves look like a bunch of fools. It’s rather hard to keep feeling for the kid when things like this come to light.

    30 contract offers in one hour? Please. We’ve heard of his former club having an interest and that’s it. The NHL and it’s 30 GM’s aren’t stupid. They’ve seen him play and know of his deficiencies. And they also probably know Holland isn’t going to bite at the smallest offer. The player’s hockey sense just isn’t there in the way it should be for a player picked at number 4 overall.

    For sure, 30 teams would offer him a one-year deal for somewhere under the buryable amount – I have little doubt of that.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    GBandQ:
    Professor Q,

    hopefully Holland has one more card to play before the season starts. guess we’ll see who gets a PTO invite, too. Missed opportunity on Nichushkin at $850K, IMHO.

    Wait a second, I don’t know your stance on Jesse off the top of my head, however, is the suggestion that Jesse is a lost cause as an NHL player but Nichushkin would have been a good signing?

    Nichushkin is 3 years older than Jesse and not accomplished anything more than Jesse has, maybe even less.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody quote as per Gregor:

    “You can’t point to one play where my speed didn’t allow me to get to a lose puck in the AHL. I know the NHL is another step, but I’ve always been more of a thinker than a speedster. I think I can be a top six, top-nine player in the NHL. I just want to prove myself.” Marody.

    I like the quote – rooting for this guy to win the 3C job – it may be a bit unreasonable to expect that but it sure would help roster/lineup construction.

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody quote as per Gregor:

    “You can’t point to one play where my speed didn’t allow me to get to a lose puck in the AHL. I know the NHL is another step, but I’ve always been more of a thinker than a speedster. I think I can be a top six, top-nine player in the NHL. I just want to prove myself.” Marody.

    I like the quote – rooting for this guy to win the 3C job – it may be a bit unreasonable to expect that but it sure would help roster/lineup construction.

    And, you see, “lost in translation” aside, that has to sound infinitely better than “I want 15 mins a night on the top two lines”, no matter what language it’s in.

  66. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody quote as per Gregor:

    “You can’t point to one play where my speed didn’t allow me to get to a lose puck in the AHL. I know the NHL is another step, but I’ve always been more of a thinker than a speedster. I think I can be a top six, top-nine player in the NHL. I just want to prove myself.” Marody.

    I like the quote – rooting for this guy to win the 3C job – it may be a bit unreasonable to expect that but it sure would help roster/lineup construction.

    Rooting for him as well this is a huge training camp and year for Mr. Marody.

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Very few 19 year olds who play in the OHL and score at about 1pt/game actually make the NHL.
    https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/player-age/19-year-old-ohl-forwards.html
    Very few.

    Ive been an Oiler fan for far too long to use “hope” in my expectations.

    Iirc being an Oiler fan is what led you to the Priesthood as well.

  68. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: For sure, 30 teams would offer him a one-year deal for somewhere under the buryable amount – I have little doubt of that.

    As of today I would take that bet I believe some GM’s would pass on the distraction especially after his comments today. Yeesh talk about sewering your perception and value around the league.

  69. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: if LT gives me the blessing, I will set out the challenge and keep track … would be interesting ..

    If you do it in true “DEATHMARCH” fashion you should lose your entries and just make shit up.

    Also,

    Please leave entries open until Oct 1.

    Lots happens in camp/pre-season and more information is more information.

  70. jp says:

    rickithebear:

    Nurse – Larsson
    18-19 4.23 evga/60
    Anyone want to look at video of all the evg goals Larsson was on for having started the shift with nurse.
    How many were to nurses side with no nurse in sight.
    Or
    The new dpartner coming in as 5 th skater cause of Nurse late bench change.
    With no 2D-1G re-established.

    They didn’t play a lot together last year. Only 20 GA as a pair, so I guess it’s not a terribly onerous task.

    What do you make of their 1.86 GA/60 in 840 minutes together in 17-18?

  71. jp says:

    jtblack:
    jp,

    “That’s a lot of turnover, and probably suggests most Lowetiders would fail to pick 12 of 16 correctly.”

    I think we might have to have a “PLAYOFF PICK DEATH MARCH” type pool and see who can get 12 or more correct. and IF anybody can nail all 16.

    LT.Can I put out this challenge to the group, if I keep track of it?

    Good idea.

  72. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you do it in true “DEATHMARCH” fashion you should lose your entries and just make shit up.

    Also,

    Please leave entries open until Oct 1.

    Lots happens in camp/pre-season and more information is more information.

    Yep. Several teams still need to clear cap space to signs RFAs.
    Could change things dramatically.

  73. jtblack says:

    Woodguy v2.0: If you do it in true “DEATHMARCH” fashion you should lose your entries and just make shit up.

    Also,

    Please leave entries open until Oct 1.

    Lots happens in camp/pre-season and more information is more information.

    You can be sure I will lose my entries and someone end up with 16 for 16 on the playoff teams. Magically.

    I would leave it open until October 1st.

  74. jtblack says:

    13 of Edmonton’s first 19 Games are against teams that didn’t make the playoffs last season.

    They better be cranking right out of camp

  75. texmex says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Marody quote as per Gregor:

    “You can’t point to one play where my speed didn’t allow me to get to a lose puck in the AHL. I know the NHL is another step, but I’ve always been more of a thinker than a speedster. I think I can be a top six, top-nine player in the NHL. I just want to prove myself.” Marody.

    I like the quote – rooting for this guy to win the 3C job – it may be a bit unreasonable to expect that but it sure would help roster/lineup construction.

    What a great interview with Gregor. Worth a listen for sure. Marody is a very confident person. His interview has me believing he can and will make the NHL!!

    Interview is on tsn 1260

  76. Yeti says:

    jp: Those aren’t 4th line or PB minutes, even if he didn’t get time with McDavid (this year). I don’t know what there is to complain about honestly.

    There’s plenty to complain about. The ugly sound of a narrative imploding under the weight of reality, for one.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: In truth he is not applying for top six forward. Speed causes mistakes and he has speed and size. He can carve out a nice career as a third line defensive centre. This will take time but a cost effective defensive third line centre would be a welcome addition. Every young player doesn’t have to be a home run to have value. We will know more after a full year in the AHL.

    This is likely true about his potential but, of course, you never know. History shows its likely but there are always exceptions – shit, we see top 6 players that were never even drafted. With that, I don’t cap him at 3C but put that as a reasonable expectation if he develops.

    I can’t imagine him playing in the NHL this year and my expectation is for him to solify himself as a bottom 6 center on the Condors and maybe take over the 2C spot when Marody is up in the NHL (or at some point).

    We don’t know how the year is going to go but I would reasonably expect him to start 2020/21 in the Bake as well.

    Of course, there is NOTHING wrong with a forward needing a few years of AHL development.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:

    I don’t mean to say who makes the playoff is actually random. And I’m not arguing that the Oilers are going to be good, but there’s a very fine line between success and failure. Team success is extremely volatile. It shouldn’t be a big surprise if the Oilers are good this season. Likewise, your expectation could well prove correct.

    The fine line is often/generally made out of goaltending and top end health.

    Smith and Koskinen trading off hot streaks (and both have shown to have those at the NHL level) and this team is in the playoffs.

  79. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

    Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

    Winning deep in the playoffs is a different animal than reg season. It takes a whole team willing to do what it takes to dominate other teams. And that doesn’t mean win at all costs these days, it means win at all personal costs. It’s painful, as in actually painful.

    Up to now the Oilers have been shy on NHL players. Once they began icing a team of NHL players, regardless of talent issues they still didn’t play as a team or for each other. Snowballing failure is always the result for every team.

    The team that wins it all each year has enough skill, but also has all the stars align, and every player gutting themselves all the way through.

    The Oilers can do that, with this team, go deep I mean, and learn. It starts with the best players leading the way. And the emergence of some players that will be the ones that pay the price to dominate the other team’s best.

    Connor and Leon can do that, but they both have work to do in that regard, the coach has to deploy and motivate the roster properly, and GM needs to augment what Connor and Leon need to be their best.

    I have more confidence in Tip and Kenny than any other combo since Mac and Kev in 06.

    Anything is possible to those that strive with correct thinking. Which is sadly one of the hardest things in the world, that correct thinking.

  80. Harpers Hair says:

    George Laraque saying Derek Brassard is signing a one year deal with the Oilers.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes:

    Pulju isnt the way he is because of deployment or linemates. They probably didnt help but the guy just isnt that great at hockey. At least right now. Hopefully that changes but Im not holding my breath.

    I can’t get on board with the player “not being good at hockey” when 30 NHL GMs (to our knowledge) would have chosen him 3rd overall in his draft year.

    He’s recently 21, was 20 the last time he played a professional hockey game, there is a player there that can still be developed and unlocked.

    Of course, the player himself has to (a) allow that to happen (you know, signing and playing) and (b) work.

    I don’t think this is a talent or “good at hockey” issue – yes, maybe you are getting at “hockey IQ” and I don’t buy that completely either – you don’t get labelled with such high pedigree/potential without knowing the game.

  82. Lowetide says:

    Georges Laraque
    @GeorgesLaraque
    ·
    8m
    I’m hearing in Edmonton that Derick Brassard is about to sign a 1 year deal with
    @EdmontonOilers
    ! Great signing! J’entends du côté de Edmonton que Derick Brassard serait sur le point de signer un contract de 1 an avec les Oilers! Bonne signature!

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    If true, the number on Brassard best be under $2M.

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    blainer:
    JP is another Yak. This player does not understand the commitment it takes to be a pro and a good teammate IMO.

    From all the poison coming out of his own mouth it will be very difficult for Holland to find him a landing spot. This kid has a lot of growing up to do.

    If I were another GM I would steer clear of this problem child period. I think we can all agree after all the verbal coming from the player that the bulk of his development problems did not lie nearly as much with the organization as much as they are with the player. The exact same way I felt about Yak.

    Let JP find his own way in Europe until he grows up and maybe then we might find a taker for the player. He is not getting us much now that is for sure. JMO.

    Thankfully JP has a lot more eye candy to other GMs. World Juniors dominance, huge and fast, and not ‘Russian’.

    He’s still in lowball territory for sure. Too bad PC didn’t pick up on the issues that were it seems
    were not a secret regarding cooperativeness.

  85. Pescador says:

    Harpers Hair:
    George Laraque saying Derek Brassard is signing a one year deal with the Oilers.

    Nice 3C option,
    Should fetch a 4th round pick at the deadline, possibly a 3rd

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    At least McLeod can score pretty goals – 3 Oilers prospects in the prettiest goals from the OHL playoffs:

    https://twitter.com/OHLHockey/status/1163827850073509888

  87. Reja says:

    Pescador: Nice 3C option,
    Should fetch a 4th round pick at the deadline, possibly a 3rd

    Why would we trade our 3C before the playoffs?

  88. Pescador says:

    Reja,

    What’s a playoff?

  89. greenshifter says:

    Maybe Jesse was just stating his future goals and it didn’t come across well? I’m just as upset about the situation as anyone, but I don’t believe he is demanding top 6 and 15 minutes a night his next game in the NHL.

    I agree he still has to put in the work, let’s hope he understands that.

  90. Scungilli Slushy says:

    defmn: I agree. He just needs his speed and size to give him enough opportunities that he can figure out how to go to the blue paint to get his 12-15 goals every season. To me that comes down to coaching and maturity so he has a chance.

    For sure

    There is a type of aggressiveness that is needed to be a scorer season in and out. Often these personalities aren’t ‘fuzzy and warm ‘ and have ‘issues ‘.

    For those that have the aggressive drive, the question is can the org handle the person? Often not.

    The question for players that have the tools but don’t have the edge, can they develop the edge?

    It’s not a bad thing, I would say necessary, to have players that will do the dirty work that is so necessary in a supportive role, that all contending teams absolutely have to have.

    If you can find a player that has bland two way numbers in junior and can find some offense and game in the NHL, you’re golden

    Ryan isn’t that different than O’Reilly that way, who I feel was the driver in the Blues Cup. It’s a big hill to climb, fall off of, and climb again, like RO.

    But that would be the hope for him and us.

  91. Turning Tikkanese says:

    Poor Jesse, he still thinks the roads are paved with gold.

    Unfortunately:
    1) The roads are NOT paved with gold,
    2) The roads are NOT paved,
    3) YOU have to do the paving.

    Has no one in his life ever told him this? Sad to see him pissing away a career because of entitlement issues.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    EW has Brassard at 3 x $4M estimated contract. His 1-year value is estimated at $1.45M. I’d be on board with the latter but not the former.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I wasn’t going to say this, but at some point it’s about parenting or the head people have when you’re 20 or whatever.

    We teach our platoon of kids ‘life isn’t fair’.

    Our kids have been far more successful than JP in sports and finance, and politics.

    Not, but the point remains. When you get a raw deal, what are going to do?

    Even LT has had to circumvent a raw deal, or so he says 😀

  94. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM:
    EW has Brassard at 3 x $4M estimated contract. His 1-year value is estimated at $1.45M. I’d be on board with the latter but not the former.

    I would wager Brassard is not a good building block for a forming team. He’s done and looking for payday. More selfish negativity IMO.

  95. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: Why would we trade our 3C before the playoffs?

    If you have to ask the question….

  96. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    EW has Brassard at 3 x $4M estimated contract. His 1-year value is estimated at $1.45M. I’d be on board with the latter but not the former.

    The report, one and only by a guy that is not a known insider but does know people, is for one year.

    I would only be comfortable with one year in any event.

    Below $2M is key, preferably in the range you cite.

  97. Pescador says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I would wager Brassard is not a good building block for a forming team. He’s done and looking for payday. More selfish negativity IMO.

    Selfish negativity?
    The rumored contract is one year, likely at or around $2M
    Not exactly “cashing in”

  98. Reja says:

    Pescador:
    Reja,

    What’s a playoff?

    It’s a large wagon which a vast majority of folks will be jumping on come Christmas time in Edmonton.

  99. Yeti says:

    greenshifter: Maybe Jesse was just stating his future goals and it didn’t come across well? I’m just as upset about the situation as anyone, but I don’t believe he is demanding top 6 and 15 minutes a night his next game in the NHL.

    It’s possible that he was referring to taking a Euro gig so that he could have these conditions to get his game back on track, rather than expecting it at an NHL level. But, regardless, he’s leaving himself open to bad interpretations … and his agent is really dropping the ball on this.

  100. Bling says:

    I’m not buying this concern about McLeod’s scoring in junior.

    He has plenty enough offence to be a 3C, especially with those wheels.

    Jujhar Khaira was well below a PPG in his last year of junior and will probably play 300 NHL games if not more as a bottom six guy.

    Ryan Getzlaf only barely cleared a PPG in his last year of junior. LT’s comp, Jason Chimera, was the same. Both those guys cleared 1000 NHL GP.

    We’ll have a better idea after his first pro-season, but McLeod’s skating puts him in a different league than the Schremps, Sarnos, and Pouliots of the world.

  101. jp says:

    Harpers Hair:
    George Laraque saying Derek Brassard is signing a one year deal with the Oilers.

    Lowetide:
    Georges Laraque
    @GeorgesLaraque
    ·
    8m
    I’m hearing in Edmonton that Derick Brassard is about to sign a 1 year deal with
    @EdmontonOilers
    ! Great signing! J’entends du côté de Edmonton que Derick Brassard serait sur le point de signer un contract de 1 an avec les Oilers! Bonne signature!

    That’s a huge signing if true. Well, huge potential. Brassard will need to prove he had a down year rather than being over the hill. But he COULD be a very high end 3C, or even a top 6 winger.

  102. greenshifter says:

    Yeti,

    Couldn’t agree more on the agent.

  103. rickithebear says:

    Bling:
    I’m not buying this concern about McLeod’s scoring in junior.

    He has plenty enough offence to be a 3C, especially with those wheels.

    Jujhar Khaira was well below a PPG in his last year of junior and will probably play 300 NHL games if not more as a bottom six guy.

    Ryan Getzlaf only barely cleared a PPG in his last year of junior. LT’s comp, Jason Chimera, was the same. Both those guys cleared 1000 NHL GP.

    We’ll have a better idea after his first pro-season, but McLeod’s skating puts him in a different league than the Schremps, Sarnos, and Pouliots of the world.

    Bling: last seasons age NHLE equivalency for this yr AHL forward Prospects .
    Total goals, assists, points. Ev, PP, PK

    Maroody ( 21yr season) 13G 29A 42P
    Benson (20 yr ssn) 9G 32A 41P
    Maksimov
    18-19 (19 yr ssn) 20G 20A 40P
    17-18 (18 yr ssn) 21G 29A 50P
    Safin (19 yr) 14G 21A 35P
    Mcleod
    18-19 (19yr) 13G 27A 40P
    17-18 (18yr) 16G 27A 43P

    If you play 3rd line you may not see PP time.

    18-19
    16G = #66 C; #44 LW; #42 RW
    42P = #60 C; #30 LW; #45 RW

    Those forward prospects should have a chance by age 22-23

  104. jp says:

    Pescador: Nice 3C option,
    Should fetch a 4th round pick at the deadline, possibly a 3rd

    We’re all assuming 3C I think. Which makes this almost funny: https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/penguins/2019/02/05/Derick-Brassard-Panthers-Penguins-failed-trade-Rutherford-open-up/stories/201902050174

    I wonder if he feels any different since February? And there may be a few shades of JP in there…

  105. jp says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Ryan isn’t that different than O’Reilly that way, who I feel was the driver in the Blues Cup. It’s a big hill to climb, fall off of, and climb again, like RO.

    But that would be the hope for him and us.

    Patrice Bergeron too I suppose. I do see the comparison. It makes some sense for sure. But both of those guys had played a full NHL season at this point.

    But yeah, McLeod finding his offense and heading in the direction of those other two would be spectacular.

  106. Glovjuice says:

    jp: Patrice Bergeron too I suppose. I do see the comparison. It makes some sense for sure. But both of those guys had played a full NHL season at this point.

    But yeah, McLeod finding his offense and heading in the direction of those other two would be spectacular.

    I predict that McLeod will be ready before most think. One of those guys that performs better in the NHL viv-la-vis his junior pedigree.

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    That would be nice but I don’t see him in the NHL until 2021.

  108. jp says:

    greenshifter:
    Maybe Jesse was just stating his future goals and it didn’t come across well? I’m just as upset about the situation as anyone, but I don’t believe he is demanding top 6 and 15 minutes a night his next game in the NHL.

    I agree he still has to put in the work, let’s hope he understands that.

    greenshifter:
    Maybe Jesse was just stating his future goals and it didn’t come across well? I’m just as upset about the situation as anyone, but I don’t believe he is demanding top 6 and 15 minutes a night his next game in the NHL.

    I agree he still has to put in the work, let’s hope he understands that.

    I just re-read the translation and that’s my take too.

    “I want to go to a situation where I’ll play 15 min in the top 6. Then I’ll be able to show what I can do”. Rather than “I need to be moved to a team that will play me 15 min in the top 6. The Oilers should have given me those minutes”

    The former is something any player would say. The latter is, well, entitled.

    In any case there’s a lot of room for interpretation. And I guess in either case the bottom line remains the same, Puljujarvi definitely wants out.

  109. Georgexs says:

    Take each team’s top scoring forward by total points from last season. What’s the median number of points scored in this 1F group?

    80. And CMD, our 1F, had 116, good enough for 2nd place, 36 points better than the median.

    If we complete this exercise for the top 12 forwards, we get the following:

    Forward Group, Median Points, Median Player, EDM Points, EDM Player, EDM Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 116, Connor McDavid, 2
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 105, Leon Draisaitl, 1
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 69, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 10
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 38, Alex Chiasson, 23
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 26, Zack Kassian, 31
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 20, Milan Lucic, 30
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 18, Jujhar Khaira, 31
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 11, Tobias Rieder, 31
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 11, Ty Rattie, 31
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 11, Drake Caggiula, 31
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 10, Sam Gagner, 31
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 9, Kyle Brodziak, 27

    Going into last season, who would we have picked to be the Oilers’ 4th highest scoring forward. Lucic? Strome? JP? Rieder? Probably not Chiasson. The only one who had a history of scoring around the 47 point mark was Lucic and we saw his confidence and his game was shot. Strome would have had to stretch to hit that mark; he’d been closer to the 6F mark in his last few seasons. JP started injured and didn’t have the confidence of the coach. It’s fair to say the rest of our roster, based on history, all had very long odds to reach the median 4F scoring total. So the problems started at 4F and sort of compounded from there. Failing to develop JP, who really should’ve been ready to play top 6 in his draft+3, and losing Lucic sunk TMac and PC.

    Let’s repeat the exercise for the playoff team with the lowest points from last season: COL

    Forward Group, Median Points, COL Points, COL Player, COL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 99, Nathan MacKinnon, 6
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 87, Mikko Rantanen, 5
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 75, Gabriel Landeskog, 6
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 49, Carl Soderberg, 12
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 42, Alexander Kerfoot, 11
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 32, J.T. Compher, 22
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 27, Colin Wilson, 22
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 26, Matt Calvert, 14
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 26, Tyson Jost, 9
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 23, Matt Nieto, 6
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 17, Sven Andrighetto, 9
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 8, Gabriel Bourque, 31

    Competitive throughout. Soderberg stepping into the 4F spot, a nice uptick from his previous season and really not unheard of given his career numbers to the start of last season. Kerfoot basically hitting his numbers from the previous season. With an answer for 4F and 5F, COL was able to push other players down where their results compare favorably with their peers.

    And once more for the Champions: STL

    Forward Group, Median Points, STL Points, STL Player, STL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 77, Ryan O’Reilly, 17
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 68, Vladimir Tarasenko, 17
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 54, Brayden Schenn, 17
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 46, David Perron, 17
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 38, Tyler Bozak, 16
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 36, Jaden Schwartz, 11
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 33, Robert Thomas, 12
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 31, Oskar Sundqvist, 7
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 28, Pat Maroon, 5
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 27, Alexander Steen, 1
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 26, Ivan Barbashev, 1
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 20, Zach Sanford, 1

    STL basically stayed close to median at the top of their order and then turned up as they moved further down. Interesting.

  110. jp says:

    Glovjuice: I predict that McLeod will be ready before most think. One of those guys that performs better in the NHL viv-la-vis his junior pedigree.

    He sure looked good last camp. Time will tell.

  111. jtblack says:

    Georgexs:
    Take each team’s top scoring forward by total points from last season. What’s the median number of points scored in this 1F group?

    80. And CMD, our 1F, had 116, good enough for 2nd place, 36 points better than the median.

    If we complete this exercise for the top 12 forwards, we get the following:

    Forward Group, Median Points, Median Player, EDM Points, EDM Player, EDM Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 116, Connor McDavid, 2
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 105, Leon Draisaitl, 1
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 69, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 10
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 38, Alex Chiasson, 23
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 26, Zack Kassian, 31
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 20, Milan Lucic, 30
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 18, Jujhar Khaira, 31
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 11, Tobias Rieder, 31
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 11, Ty Rattie, 31
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 11, Drake Caggiula, 31
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 10, Sam Gagner, 31
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 9, Kyle Brodziak, 27

    Going into last season, who would we have picked to be the Oilers’ 4th highest scoring forward. Lucic? Strome? JP? Rieder? Probably not Chiasson. The only one who had a history of scoring around the 47 point mark was Lucic and we saw his confidence and his game was shot. Strome would have had to stretch to hit that mark; he’d been closer to the 6F mark in his last few seasons. JP started injured and didn’t have the confidence of the coach. It’s fair to say the rest of our roster, based on history, all had very long odds to reach the median 4F scoring total. So the problems started at 4F and sort of compounded from there. Failing to develop JP, who really should’ve been ready to play top 6 in his draft+3, and losing Lucic sunk TMac and PC.

    Let’s repeat the exercise for the playoff team with the lowest points from last season: COL

    Forward Group, Median Points, COL Points, COL Player, COL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 99, Nathan MacKinnon, 6
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 87, Mikko Rantanen, 5
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 75, Gabriel Landeskog, 6
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 49, Carl Soderberg, 12
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 42, Alexander Kerfoot, 11
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 32, J.T. Compher, 22
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 27, Colin Wilson, 22
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 26, Matt Calvert, 14
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 26, Tyson Jost, 9
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 23, Matt Nieto, 6
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 17, Sven Andrighetto, 9
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 8, Gabriel Bourque, 31

    Competitive throughout. Soderberg stepping into the 4F spot, a nice uptick from his previous season and really not unheard of given his career numbers to the start of last season. Kerfoot basically hitting his numbers from the previous season. With an answer for 4F and 5F, COL was able to push other players down where their results compare favorably with their peers.

    And once more for the Champions: STL

    Forward Group, Median Points, STL Points, STL Player, STL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 77, Ryan O’Reilly, 17
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 68, Vladimir Tarasenko, 17
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 54, Brayden Schenn, 17
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 46, David Perron, 17
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 38, Tyler Bozak, 16
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 36, Jaden Schwartz, 11
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 33, Robert Thomas, 12
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 31, Oskar Sundqvist, 7
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 28, Pat Maroon, 5
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 27, Alexander Steen, 1
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 26, Ivan Barbashev, 1
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 20, Zach Sanford, 1

    STL basically stayed close to median at the top of their order and then turned up as they moved further down. Interesting.

    very Interesting

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: He sure looked good last camp. Time will tell.

    Which shows exactly how much camp means as far as NHL readiness for high draft picks in their draft plus 1 – 3 years (or so).

  113. Glovjuice says:

    Georgexs:
    Take each team’s top scoring forward by total points from last season. What’s the median number of points scored in this 1F group?

    80. And CMD, our 1F, had 116, good enough for 2nd place, 36 points better than the median.

    If we complete this exercise for the top 12 forwards, we get the following:

    Forward Group, Median Points, Median Player, EDM Points, EDM Player, EDM Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 116, Connor McDavid, 2
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 105, Leon Draisaitl, 1
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 69, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 10
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 38, Alex Chiasson, 23
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 26, Zack Kassian, 31
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 20, Milan Lucic, 30
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 18, Jujhar Khaira, 31
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 11, Tobias Rieder, 31
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 11, Ty Rattie, 31
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 11, Drake Caggiula, 31
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 10, Sam Gagner, 31
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 9, Kyle Brodziak, 27

    Going into last season, who would we have picked to be the Oilers’ 4th highest scoring forward. Lucic? Strome? JP? Rieder? Probably not Chiasson. The only one who had a history of scoring around the 47 point mark was Lucic and we saw his confidence and his game was shot. Strome would have had to stretch to hit that mark; he’d been closer to the 6F mark in his last few seasons. JP started injured and didn’t have the confidence of the coach. It’s fair to say the rest of our roster, based on history, all had very long odds to reach the median 4F scoring total. So the problems started at 4F and sort of compounded from there. Failing to develop JP, who really should’ve been ready to play top 6 in his draft+3, and losing Lucic sunk TMac and PC.

    Let’s repeat the exercise for the playoff team with the lowest points from last season: COL

    Forward Group, Median Points, COL Points, COL Player, COL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 99, Nathan MacKinnon, 6
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 87, Mikko Rantanen, 5
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 75, Gabriel Landeskog, 6
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 49, Carl Soderberg, 12
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 42, Alexander Kerfoot, 11
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 32, J.T. Compher, 22
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 27, Colin Wilson, 22
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 26, Matt Calvert, 14
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 26, Tyson Jost, 9
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 23, Matt Nieto, 6
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 17, Sven Andrighetto, 9
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 8, Gabriel Bourque, 31

    Competitive throughout. Soderberg stepping into the 4F spot, a nice uptick from his previous season and really not unheard of given his career numbers to the start of last season. Kerfoot basically hitting his numbers from the previous season. With an answer for 4F and 5F, COL was able to push other players down where their results compare favorably with their peers.

    And once more for the Champions: STL

    Forward Group, Median Points, STL Points, STL Player, STL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 77, Ryan O’Reilly, 17
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 68, Vladimir Tarasenko, 17
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 54, Brayden Schenn, 17
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 46, David Perron, 17
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 38, Tyler Bozak, 16
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 36, Jaden Schwartz, 11
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 33, Robert Thomas, 12
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 31, Oskar Sundqvist, 7
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 28, Pat Maroon, 5
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 27, Alexander Steen, 1
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 26, Ivan Barbashev, 1
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 20, Zach Sanford, 1

    STL basically stayed close to median at the top of their order and then turned up as they moved further down. Interesting.

    Good teams have good numbers and bad teams have bad numbers. These metrics do somewhat clearly show balance though. Wonder how the Kings show up with these metrics in their cup years.

  114. Georgexs says:

    Now that we know the median scoring mark for each forward position, let’s look at our current roster and see if we have a name for every slot.

    1F, 80: CMD

    2F, 69: Drai

    3F, 56: RNH

    Now it gets tough.

    4F: 47:

    Has to be Neal, right? He has the history.

    5F: 38:

    Chiasson did it last season. Unrealistic that he would repeat. Kassian has never hit that mark. But he might get to play with CMD and Drai. It’s a contract year. I understand he recently became a father. Who else? One of the young guys or one of the Europeans getting an opportunity and never giving it up? That’s hope. Don’t know if I can call it a reasonable expectation. Gagner? That was 3 years ago working some PP magic in CBJ. Anything left in the tank? Out of all that, I’d probably have to go with Kassian. Most to gain and lose.

    6F: 34:

    OK. This is really tough. If Chiasson doesn’t get the minutes he got from last year, how does he get to 34? Can Gagner still get to 34? If it’s neither of these guys, then we’re counting on someone who hasn’t hit that mark before to get there next season, right?

    7F: 30:

    Wow, this is not easy. I’m going to stop. Here’s to some breakout performances from the new guys with no real record in the NHL.

  115. defmn says:

    Georgexs:
    Take each team’s top scoring forward by total points from last season. What’s the median number of points scored in this 1F group?

    80. And CMD, our 1F, had 116, good enough for 2nd place, 36 points better than the median.

    If we complete this exercise for the top 12 forwards, we get the following:

    Forward Group, Median Points, Median Player, EDM Points, EDM Player, EDM Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 116, Connor McDavid, 2
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 105, Leon Draisaitl, 1
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 69, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 10
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 38, Alex Chiasson, 23
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 26, Zack Kassian, 31
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 20, Milan Lucic, 30
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 18, Jujhar Khaira, 31
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 11, Tobias Rieder, 31
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 11, Ty Rattie, 31
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 11, Drake Caggiula, 31
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 10, Sam Gagner, 31
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 9, Kyle Brodziak, 27

    Going into last season, who would we have picked to be the Oilers’ 4th highest scoring forward. Lucic? Strome? JP? Rieder? Probably not Chiasson. The only one who had a history of scoring around the 47 point mark was Lucic and we saw his confidence and his game was shot. Strome would have had to stretch to hit that mark; he’d been closer to the 6F mark in his last few seasons. JP started injured and didn’t have the confidence of the coach. It’s fair to say the rest of our roster, based on history, all had very long odds to reach the median 4F scoring total. So the problems started at 4F and sort of compounded from there. Failing to develop JP, who really should’ve been ready to play top 6 in his draft+3, and losing Lucic sunk TMac and PC.

    Let’s repeat the exercise for the playoff team with the lowest points from last season: COL

    Forward Group, Median Points, COL Points, COL Player, COL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 99, Nathan MacKinnon, 6
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 87, Mikko Rantanen, 5
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 75, Gabriel Landeskog, 6
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 49, Carl Soderberg, 12
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 42, Alexander Kerfoot, 11
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 32, J.T. Compher, 22
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 27, Colin Wilson, 22
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 26, Matt Calvert, 14
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 26, Tyson Jost, 9
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 23, Matt Nieto, 6
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 17, Sven Andrighetto, 9
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 8, Gabriel Bourque, 31

    Competitive throughout. Soderberg stepping into the 4F spot, a nice uptick from his previous season and really not unheard of given his career numbers to the start of last season. Kerfoot basically hitting his numbers from the previous season. With an answer for 4F and 5F, COL was able to push other players down where their results compare favorably with their peers.

    And once more for the Champions: STL

    Forward Group, Median Points, STL Points, STL Player, STL Rank

    1F, 80, Tyler Seguin, 77, Ryan O’Reilly, 17
    2F, 69, Cam Atkinson, 68, Vladimir Tarasenko, 17
    3F, 56, Brock Boeser, 54, Brayden Schenn, 17
    4F, 47, Josh Anderson, 46, David Perron, 17
    5F, 38, Boone Jenner, 38, Tyler Bozak, 16
    6F, 34, Danton Heinen, 36, Jaden Schwartz, 11
    7F, 30, Colton Sissons, 33, Robert Thomas, 12
    8F, 25, Lawson Crouse, 31, Oskar Sundqvist, 7
    9F, 23, Kyle Turris, 28, Pat Maroon, 5
    10F, 18, Christian Fischer, 27, Alexander Steen, 1
    11F, 15, Warren Foegele, 26, Ivan Barbashev, 1
    12F, 12, Kiefer Sherwood, 20, Zach Sanford, 1

    STL basically stayed close to median at the top of their order and then turned up as they moved further down. Interesting.

    What would you regard as an equivalent comparative for dmen?

  116. jp says:

    rickithebear: Bling: last seasons age NHLE equivalency for this yr AHL forward Prospects .
    Total goals, assists, points. Ev, PP, PK

    Maroody ( 21yr season) 13G 29A 42P
    Benson (20 yr ssn) 9G 32A 41P
    Maksimov
    18-19 (19 yr ssn) 20G 20A 40P
    17-18 (18 yr ssn) 21G 29A 50P
    Safin (19 yr) 14G 21A 35P
    Mcleod
    18-19 (19yr) 13G 27A 40P
    17-18 (18yr) 16G 27A 43P

    Does it seem wrong that the age NHLE for a 0.98 PPG age 19 CHL forward is basically identical to a 0.97 PPG age 20 AHL forward?

  117. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: Which shows exactly how much camp means as far as NHL readiness for high draft picks in their draft plus 1 – 3 years (or so).

    I agree this is the most likely explanation but some guys do play better with the structure that characterizes the professional game rather than the more freewheeling junior style.

  118. Pescador says:

    Reja: It’s a large wagon which a vast majority of folks will be jumping on come Christmas time in Edmonton.

    I love it!
    I usually ride on that wagon at least until the wheels fall off

  119. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Pescador,

    Sooooo… Halloween?

  120. Ribs says:

    Georgexs: 7F: 30:

    Wow, this is not easy. I’m going to stop. Here’s to some breakout performances from the new guys with no real record in the NHL.

    You’re looking too hard! See, you gotta kinda squint sideways and stick a finger in your eyeball…Now turn your head 30 degrees to the left… Now hop on one foot. That’s better! Go Oilers!

  121. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Drai CMD Kassian
    Granlund Nuge Neal
    Nygard Brassard Chiasson
    Khaira Gagner Archibald

    I don’t know how this comes together but its looking like a very different F group.

  122. ArmchairGM says:

    Georgexs,

    Excellent and insightful comments the last few days. Thank you and keep it up!

  123. ArmchairGM says:

    Seventeen teams listed on Pronman’s farm system ranking countdown, still no Oilers content. Although I really want to see them in the top-5, I’m also getting impatient to read Corey’s take and ranking of our kids!

  124. jp says:

    Georgexs:
    Now that we know the median scoring mark for each forward position, let’s look at our current roster and see if we have a name for every slot.

    1F, 80: CMD

    2F, 69: Drai

    3F, 56: RNH

    Now it gets tough.

    4F: 47:

    Has to be Neal, right? He has the history.

    5F: 38:

    Chiasson did it last season. Unrealistic that he would repeat. Kassian has never hit that mark. But he might get to play with CMD and Drai. It’s a contract year. I understand he recently became a father. Who else? One of the young guys or one of the Europeans getting an opportunity and never giving it up? That’s hope. Don’t know if I can call it a reasonable expectation. Gagner? That was 3 years ago working some PP magic in CBJ. Anything left in the tank? Out of all that, I’d probably have to go with Kassian. Most to gain and lose.

    6F: 34:

    OK. This is really tough. If Chiasson doesn’t get the minutes he got from last year, how does he get to 34? Can Gagner still get to 34? If it’s neither of these guys, then we’re counting on someone who hasn’t hit that mark before to get there next season, right?

    7F: 30:

    Wow, this is not easy. I’m going to stop. Here’s to some breakout performances from the new guys with no real record in the NHL.

    Great stuff. And your point is well taken. It definitely does get dicey after Nuge.

    I do think though that it’s not a stretch (almost reasonable even?) to project 6 guys at 30+ points. Exactly which players depends on who sticks in the top 6.

    Neal isn’t a stretch. Plus 2 of Kassian, Chiasson or Gagner (Brassard?). Kassian if he sticks with McDavid. Chiasson if he keeps getting PP minutes (he’ll regress, but can clear 15-15-30 with PP time). Gagner is removed from 50 Pts, but scored 31 in 17-18 and was on pace for same in limited minutes this past season. Brassard, well we don’t know he’s an Oiler yet even.

    Glass half full, but I believe in 6 X 30 point Oiler forwards.

  125. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Will be interesting to see the gap between Pronman and Steve Kournianos if the Oilers aren’t the next team listed. Kournianos ranked the Oil pipeline at #14 in his recent writeup at sportingnews.com. With respect to LT’s 24 hour rule I won’t quote in detail.

    Basically he rips us for the slow or lack of development with recent first round picks in JP and KY, but also goes on to say we have some draft steals in Benson and Lavoie. Kind of goes out on a limb and suggests Broberg could surprise and contribute in a third pairing capacity as early as this year. Makes me wonder if he even knows Broberg’s is committed to play with Skellefteå this season.

    https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-farm-system-rankings-best-worst-prospect-pipelines-for-2019-20-from-1-to-31/2zt8xqvu30h4z980q9nwm89d

    I noticed a fair amount of editorial license with his ranking of some prospects or draft picks (strategically speaking), and even some factual errors, so it’s really up to the reader to parse his words with an understanding of his style as a scout.

  126. CallighenMan says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Troll be gone!

  127. russ99 says:

    Chelios is a Dinosaur,

    Tippett is so going to run a shutdown line of Granlund – Brassard – Archibald.

  128. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    russ99,

    Certainly this is better than last year. (Trying to recall what I thought of Toby Rieder this time last summer…)

    Nygard CMD Neal
    Drai Nuge Chiasson
    Granlund Brassard Archibald
    Khaira Gagner Kassian

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