The Need for Speed

by Lowetide

Who is the fastest forward prospect in the Oilers prospect pool? Ryan McLeod might be the right answer and his boots give him a different possible career trajectory. How different? Jason Chimera scored 15 goals and 28 points in the AHL at age 20. He was a burner. He played his first NHL game in 2000-01 and his last one in 2017-18. Ryan McLeod is going to get several chances to find the range. Offense is going to be the issue.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

NHLE

McLeod didn’t dominate the OHL offensively at 19 and it’s a concern. His NHLE at 18 (25.83) and at 19 (24.7) reminds me of previous draft picks who were shy offensively all down the line. Marc Pouliot (NHLE draft year: 22.6), Riley Nash (NHLE draft year: 16.3), Magnus Paajarvi (NHLE draft year: 17.1), Tyler Pitlick (NHLE draft year: 15.4) were all shy offensively on draft day. McLeod had a solid NHLE on his draft day but didn’t build on it. Important season ahead. Paging Dr. Woodcroft! A Jason Chimera fix is required. I’m not down on McLeod, but rather believe his speed and two-way acumen is badly needed. He needs to have enough of a bat to play No. 3 center, not there yet.

I ranked him at No. 119 for the 2014 draft and am pleased the Condors signed him. You never know, and Oilers scouting of college talent has been solid in recent seasons. Perhaps he’ll be the latest in a line of AHL deals that blossomed (Mark Arcobello, Josh Currie, Logan Day).

JESSE PULJUJARVI

I’m not sure if this is a new surge in the online efforts of Mr. Puljujarvi and his agent or just another outlet grabbing the original story. Either way, the latest item has JP looking for more of a feature role and 15 minutes a night (here). Prepare for a day of “entitled!” and “earn it!” It’s all a real shame, but these tactics won’t put more pressure on Ken Holland. I wrote about it here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, lots to talk about. Jays talk with Cam Lewis at Jays Nation, we’ll check in on the Pittsburgh Steelers with Jacob Klinger of Penn Live, and Scott Wheeler will tell us about the impressive 2020 draft as well. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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jtblack

unlike a lot of you full time, year round maniacs (yes, maniacs!) … I love the summer break from Hockey .. enjoy the outdoors, family time, follow the pga, get ready for NFL ….

BUT, it’s time. My withdrawal has bottomed out. Time for some hockey! Time for Training Camp!

I think this team is slightly better, but not a playoff team … Connor, Leon and RNH had career seasons last year …and EDM got 78 points. That’s a problem. So it all comes down to the bottom of the order and I don’t see it … better sure (impossible not to be) … but good enough compared to Vegas? Winnipeg? Nashville? San Jose? ….. NOPE

But once an Oilers Fan, Always an Oilers Fan. 39 years and counting …..

LET’S GO OILERS!

OriginalPouzar

Hey, Jesse, though to reach your goal in the NHL if you don’t sign a contract and come to camp and play.

How about you earn a lineup spot and then earn that top 6 ice you want.

The only way to do that is to actually sign, play and work your ass off.

Your goals are up to you.

You have to help yourself.

You have the talent and that team has the use for a player you want to be.

Go and earn it.

———————

“I want a team where I get a place in one of the first two lines and where I get to play for 15 minutes per game. Then I could show what I’m going for. That is my main goal”

Jesse Puljujarvi speaking with Finnish television station Laari

jp

Some nice examples of players with similar skill sets to McLeod making it despite limited offense. Even if the scoring plateaus at Paajarvi levels he could still have a career with his size, skating and apparently solid 2-way game.

A 30 point 3C would be a great result if he can get there while also winning draws and keeping the puck away from his own net. And maybe there’s more offense than that, the trajectory looked much more optimistic before he plateaued this season.

Professor Q

jtblack:
unlike a lot of you full time, year round maniacs (yes, maniacs!) … I love the summer break from Hockey .. enjoy the outdoors, family time,follow the pga, get ready for NFL ….

BUT, it’s time. My withdrawal has bottomed out.Time for some hockey! Time for Training Camp!

I think this team is slightly better, but not a playoff team … Connor, Leon and RNH had career seasons last year …and EDM got 78 points. That’s a problem.So it all comes down to the bottom of the order and I don’t see it … better sure (impossible not to be) … but good enough compared to Vegas? Winnipeg? Nashville? San Jose?…..NOPE

But once an Oilers Fan, Always an Oilers Fan.39 years and counting …..

LET’S GO OILERS!

They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

Professor Q

jp:
Some nice examples of players with similar skill sets to McLeod making it despite limited offense. Even if the scoring plateaus at Paajarvi levels he could still have a career with his size, skating and apparently solid 2-way game.

A 30 point 3C would be a great result if he can get there while also winning draws and keeping the puck away from his own net. And maybe there’s more offense than that, the trajectory looked much more optimistic before he plateaued this season.

Benson – McLeod – Maksimov?

Jethro Tull

A translation from the original Klingon of LT’s JP article:

“Where does Jesse Puljujärvi play hockey next season? The question is redness, but the answer is even cooler for the 21-year-old Finn who wants to leave the Edmonton Oilers.
– Puljujärvi is and has been convinced that he needs a change, says agent Markus Lehto.

He was predicted to be a successful and sharp goal scorer in Edmonton. But since Jesse Puljujärvi was drafted and debuted in the NHL, the success has not been. Being economical with playing time in a less prominent role has created frustration for the big forward. During the summer he has said that he is ready to leave the club, and that he may even consider playing for a year in Europe.

– I want a team where I get a place in one of the first two chains and where I get to play for 15 minutes per game. Then I could show what I’m going for. That is my main goal, Puljujärvi tells the Youtube program Lääri.

Oilers have tried to beat the Finns without success. Data during the summer has told us that Puljujärvi could still think of playing for Edmonton, but that information denies Lehto.

– This is not a scam attempt. Puljujärvi is and has been convinced that he needs a change. He is an NHL player.
“A DISAPPOINTMENT”

Puljujärvi has delivered a ton of points during his first three NHL seasons. At 137 basic series matches, the right-hander has scored 17 goals and a total of 37 points. A significantly lower total than the Oilers expected when drafting him as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2016 draft.

– The situation we are in now is a disappointment for everyone. But a lot of players have found themselves in the same situation, says forward forward Markus Lehto in an interview with Helsingin Sanomat.

As a restricted free agent, Puljujärvi must sign a new contract before December 1, otherwise he will be suspended from NHL games for the rest of the year. Should he not return there is the chance that he will be able to play in Europe where the interest is great according to Lehto. The former club, Kärpet, should be one of the stakeholders:

– A player at this level gets 30 contract offers in one hour. This is not about Puljujärvi not finding a club in Europe. It’s about other things, says Lehto.

Continuation will follow.”

I think the general gist is easy to understand.

frjohnk

jp:
Some nice examples of players with similar skill sets to McLeod making it despite limited offense. Even if the scoring plateaus at Paajarvi levels he could still have a career with his size, skating and apparently solid 2-way game.

A 30 point 3C would be a great result if he can get there while also winning draws and keeping the puck away from his own net. And maybe there’s more offense than that, the trajectory looked much more optimistic before he plateaued this season.

Very few 19 year olds who play in the OHL and score at about 1pt/game actually make the NHL.
https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/player-age/19-year-old-ohl-forwards.html
Very few.

Ive been an Oiler fan for far too long to use “hope” in my expectations.

jp

OriginalPouzar:

“I want a team where I get a place in one of the first two lines and where I get to play for 15 minutes per game. Then I could show what I’m going for. That is my main goal”

Jesse Puljujarvi speaking with Finnish television station Laari

Yeah that’s a shame. He was shy on the TOI, 11:15, 13:22 and 11:57 this past season.

But he can’t reasonably complain about opportunity, his career TOI with Oilers centers:

McDavid 406
Nuge 399
Strome 307
Draisaitl 283
Letestu 64
Brodziak 52
Cave 34

jp

Jethro Tull,

Thanks for the translation!

jp

frjohnk: Very few 19 year olds who play in the OHL and score at about 1pt/game actually make the NHL.
https://www.quanthockey.com/ohl/en/player-age/19-year-old-ohl-forwards.html
Very few.

Ive been an Oiler fan for far too long to use “hope” in my expectations.

Completely fair. But as LT said he’ll get multiple chances. I’ve not said I expect him to have an NHL career, just looking at the optimistic view.

Darth Tu

Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

I’m not sure on the Vegas “fluctuate” part – they kind of paid the price for poor referee decisions in that game 7 of round 1. Vegas easily could have went to the Western Final if that hadn’t happened…

Ben

Arriver derrière pour Lafreniere!

OriginalPouzar

I’ve seen a few comments here or there about Ryan McLeod being a 3C option for the Oilers this year and even on October 2.

My thoughts are “calm your tits”.

Yes, McLeod could very well be the 3C option for the future – he’s got that type of game – he’s got the size and speed combined with decent offensive talent. 2-way acumen and faceoffs.

At the same time, center is a damn hard position at the NHL level and its alot to ask a 20 year old to play in the NHL in his first year pro, let alone, at center. Not to mention, he struggled at times in the OHL.

I think its reasonable to expect McLeod to play bottom 6 center in the AHL this year, maybe move up to the top 6 if and when a guy like Marody is recalled.

I expect McLeod to have an up and down season in the AHL this year and spend next year in the AHL as well in a more prominent role.

blainer

JP is another Yak. This player does not understand the commitment it takes to be a pro and a good teammate IMO.

From all the poison coming out of his own mouth it will be very difficult for Holland to find him a landing spot. This kid has a lot of growing up to do.

If I were another GM I would steer clear of this problem child period. I think we can all agree after all the verbal coming from the player that the bulk of his development problems did not lie nearly as much with the organization as much as they are with the player. The exact same way I felt about Yak.

Let JP find his own way in Europe until he grows up and maybe then we might find a taker for the player. He is not getting us much now that is for sure. JMO.

LadiesloveSmid

Ben:
Arriver derrière pour Lafreniere!

derniere or derriere?

I suppose both could work. Play like ass

jp

Professor Q: Benson – McLeod – Maksimov?

You never know. I’m hopeful Benson at least might be able to fill a spot on the first two lines.

Coiler

Thanks for the translation.

JP and his agent can talk and talk and talk until the cows come home. I feel that the more they talk they more they make themselves look like a bunch of fools. It’s rather hard to keep feeling for the kid when things like this come to light.

30 contract offers in one hour? Please. We’ve heard of his former club having an interest and that’s it. The NHL and it’s 30 GM’s aren’t stupid. They’ve seen him play and know of his deficiencies. And they also probably know Holland isn’t going to bite at the smallest offer. The player’s hockey sense just isn’t there in the way it should be for a player picked at number 4 overall.

Jesse has some serious growing up to do IMO and he’s been spending too much time drinking his own kool-aid or watching his you tube highlight videos. I can’t get over the audacity of this kid stating that he wants top two line status and minutes. On a team bereft of talented wingers these last two years he showed that he couldn’t even earn those minutes here.

Scouts shit the bed on this one pretty badly. Chiarelli took a massive dump of biblical proportions afterwards. And this kid kept on drinking his kool-aid.

Thanks for the memories JP. Ciao! Auf Wiedersehn! Sayonara! Please let the door smack you in the ass on the way out.

dustrock

The math on McLeod doesn’t factor in his boots, fair enough, but his scoring rates do tell us it’s highly, highly unlikely he’ll be any kind of productive player in the NHL.

I don’t think it’s the tools he has that’s the issue.

And also special kudos to LT for continuing to inject our daily hockey blog fix directly into our veins over the summer AND posting frequently at The Athletic whilst his colleagues are nowhere to be seen. 😉

Durag

I really don’t get what JP’s agent is trying to accomplish here. So reading between the lines, he’s saying to other teams “I have no interest in proving myself in the bottom 6 before moving up”. Why would anyone want to take on that headache? Please just shut up and score 30 goals in Finland so we can trade you.

McNuge93

Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

Agree there’s a chance. Every year there’s a couple of surprise teams. Last year; Carolina, Colorado and I would even say the Flames were a surprise.

But, a lot of things have to go right for the Oilers. Starting with coaching and goaltending, and ending with progression of young defenders and better play by bottom six forwaads.

blainer

Coiler:
Thanks for the translation.

JP and his agent can talk and talk and talk until the cows come home. I feel that the more they talk they more they make themselves look like a bunch of fools. It’s rather hard to keep feeling for the kid when things like this come to light.

30 contract offers in one hour? Please. We’ve heard of his former club having an interest and that’s it. The NHL and it’s 30 GM’s aren’t stupid. They’ve seen him play and know of his deficiencies. And they also probably know Holland isn’t going to bite at the smallest offer. The player’s hockey sense just isn’t there in the way it should be for a player picked at number 4 overall.

Jesse has some serious growing up to do IMO and he’s been spending too much time drinking his own kool-aid or watching his you tube highlight videos. I can’t get over the audacity of this kid stating that he wants top two line status and minutes. On a team bereft of talented wingers these last two years he showed that he couldn’t even earn those minutes here.

Scouts shit the bed on this one pretty badly. Chiarelli took a massive dump of biblical proportions afterwards. And this kid kept on drinking his kool-aid.

Thanks for the memories JP. Ciao! Auf Wiedersehn! Sayonara! Please let the door smack you in the ass on the way out.

Well said. This kid should just shut up already. He needs to find a good woman to get his head straight as that is what often happens with us guys. It is something I needed for sure.

I remember the Danny Cleary situation well.. at one point in his career his was touted as a possible 1st overall pick. He was definetly drinking his own koolaid and will be the first to admit it now too.

He found a great woman and had to eat a ton of humble pie but he always had the talent .. all he needed was to understand that you had to put the work in and be a great teammate. Luckily for him he got his shit together and got a PTO with Detroit and saved his career.

JP is on a similar career path and I would hazzard to guess with his latest verbal he just shut down a few more options in the NHL. Someone should explain to him that comments made in Europe make their way to North America.

Grow up kid.. In life you have to earn your spot. Very disappointed with this project of a kid and his agent for not getting him to just stop talking to the media.

HT Joe

blainer: JP is another Yak. This player does not understand the commitment it takes to be a pro and a good teammate IMO.

How dare you!! JP wishes he were Yak.
– Yak led the team in goals in his rookie season.
– Yak’s NHL career ended up with 350 GP, 62 goals, 136 points (0.389 points per game), and a 9.5% shooting percentage
– Jesse’s NHL career ended up with (for now) 139 GP, 17 goals, 37 points (0.266 points per game), and a 7.4% shooting percentage.

For comparison, in Yak’s first 48 games, he scored as many goals as Jesse did in his full 139 game NHL career.

I’d take Yak back over Jesse.

GB&Q

Professor Q,

Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

hopefully Holland has one more card to play before the season starts. guess we’ll see who gets a PTO invite, too. Missed opportunity on Nichushkin at $850K, IMHO.

They could surprise, but a lot would have to go right for that to happen. If Caleb Jones, Marody or Benson, and at least one of the Euro imports break through in a big way, AND the goalers deliver in a big way, then we can start getting excited a bit.

Who knows? Maybe an injury opens a spot and someone unexpected goes supernova.

Ribs

Puljujarvi unintended tranlsation to me… “I want to play in Russia!”

It will be interesting to see if there is another not-good hockey team out there that has those big minutes they’d be willing to dedicate to him based on the output he’s spewed forth so far. Kings, maybe?

dustrock

Ribs:
Puljujarvi unintended tranlsation to me… “I want to play in Russia!”

It will be interesting to see if there is another not-good hockey team out there that has those big minutes they’d be willing to dedicate to him based on the output he’s spewed forth so far. Kings, maybe?

I’m sure McLellan would be overjoyed.

Munny

We don’t know how much McLeod’s offensive numbers were affected by linemates and usage last year. Nor do prospects develop in a straight line. But the plateau in production is a concern and should be noted.

Since he appears to be a middling scorer in Junior, without a giant leap forward, he’s going to have to find a different path to make the Bigs. A 4L who might top out at 3L sounds right. He has some natural abilities that suggest if he can crack the mental side, he should be a lock for a blue collar career.

And who knows… maybe one day the game slows down for him.

Reja

Durag:
I really don’t get what JP’s agent is trying to accomplish here. So reading between the lines, he’s saying to other teams “I have no interest in proving myself in the bottom 6 before moving up”. Why would anyone want to take on that headache? Please just shut up and score 30 goals in Finland so we can trade you.

Reverse negotiating.

Munny

We had gone two weeks without Pujo damaging his hockey career, so it was time.

HT Joe

Reja: Reverse negotiating.

Is that like “Opposite George”?

jtblack

Professor Q: They could always surprise. A lot of teams fluctuate like Vegas, Calgary, Colorado, Winnipeg, etc. Even San Jose is so-so when it comes to playoffs. Nashville has really only been the static medium team as of late.

Colorado is the epitome of it. Last place to Conference Contenders, and vice versa.

yah, def seems to be a few teams that fall out each year.

Of the 8 playoff teams, I onlyl see Winnipeg dropping dramatically. They are still GOOD, but have lost a lot of back end talent (Trouba , Myers). Their LHD was their weak point and now their RHD is also thin. Plus they may have Connor and Laine starting late, depending on contracts.

AZ, CHI & VAN all missed the playoffs and I think they ALL Got better in the off season.

I see Minny, Edm, Ana & L.A. battling it out at the bottom of the conference.

Side

It always amazes me how players and agents alike think that what they are doing and saying is beneficial for their careers.

As someone who is not in the hockey culture/industry/life at all, even I know that Jesse and his agent are doing the absolute worst thing possible in this situation.

How do they not see this? It boggles.

pts2pndr

dustrock:
The math on McLeod doesn’t factor in his boots, fair enough, but his scoring rates do tell us it’s highly, highly unlikely he’ll be any kind of productive player in the NHL.

I don’t think it’s the tools he has that’s the issue.

And also special kudos to LT for continuing to inject our daily hockey blog fix directly into our veins over the summer AND posting frequently at The Athletic whilst his colleagues are nowhere to be seen.

In truth he is not applying for top six forward. Speed causes mistakes and he has speed and size. He can carve out a nice career as a third line defensive centre. This will take time but a cost effective defensive third line centre would be a welcome addition. Every young player doesn’t have to be a home run to have value. We will know more after a full year in the AHL.

defmn

pts2pndr: In truth he is not applying for top six forward. Speed causes mistakes and he has speed and size. He can carve out a nice career as a third line defensive centre. This will take time but a cost effective defensive third line centre would be a welcome addition. Every young player doesn’t have to be a home run to have value. We will know more after a full year in the AHL.

I agree. He just needs his speed and size to give him enough opportunities that he can figure out how to go to the blue paint to get his 12-15 goals every season. To me that comes down to coaching and maturity so he has a chance.

jp

jtblack: yah, def seems to be a few teams that fall out each year.

Of the 8 playoff teams, I onlyl see Winnipeg dropping dramatically. They are still GOOD, but have lost a lot of back end talent (Trouba , Myers).Their LHD was their weak point and now their RHD is also thin.Plus they may have Connor and Laine starting late, depending on contracts.

AZ, CHI & VAN all missed the playoffs and I think they ALL Got better in the off season.

I see Minny, Edm, Ana & L.A. battling it out at the bottom of the conference.

Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).

No one picked the Oilers to be good in 16-17. Then the next year many picked them as cup contenders. You just don’t know how things will play out.

I don’t mean to say who makes the playoff is actually random. And I’m not arguing that the Oilers are going to be good, but there’s a very fine line between success and failure. Team success is extremely volatile. It shouldn’t be a big surprise if the Oilers are good this season. Likewise, your expectation could well prove correct.

Reja

HT Joe: Is that like “Opposite George”?

Yes very much like “opposite Yrjo”

jtblack

jp: Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).

No one picked the Oilers to be good in 16-17. Then the next year many picked them as cup contenders. You just don’t know how things will play out.

I don’t mean to say who makes the playoff is actually random. And I’m not arguing that the Oilers are going to be good, but there’s a very fine line between success and failure. Team success is extremely volatile. It shouldn’t be a big surprise if the Oilers are good this season. Likewise, your expectation could well prove correct.

There will always be some randomness. That’s the beauty of Sports. But I thiink if you dig deeper, you see that the Cream Rises to the Top year after year. That depends on what stage of the Cycle a team is in …

But for example. in the EAST all of these teams have made the playoffs the last 3 YEARS.

WASH
PITT
BOS
TOR
CBJ

Tampa missed by 1 point in 2017. Essentially you have 6 teams that have been in each year. Leaving 2 spots for the Randoms to try and get in.

The WEST has been more voliatile, but the Cream still Rises.

ST.L
NASH
WPG
SJ
have all been regulars in the last 3 years. WPG finished 9th in 2017. St.L finished 9th in 2018. Otherwise they are regulars.

The WEST is def more wife open as we have seen ANA & L.A, winning clusters get too old after being competetive for a decade +.

Although Edmonton did surprise in 2017, let’s not forget they have made the playoffs once in 13 years. So the reality is their “surprise” ratio is 8%.

Bag of Pucks

It’s actually comical how desperate JP and his agent are to force a trade and how little actual leverage they have.

Jesse is becoming the Le’Veon Bell of the NHL. And that comparison flatters JP, because Bell had actually produced as a player.

Jesse has no track record, no allies, no leverage and no clue.

Go home and get your shinebox Jesse.

Harpers Hair

jtblack: yah, def seems to be a few teams that fall out each year.

Of the 8 playoff teams, I onlyl see Winnipeg dropping dramatically. They are still GOOD, but have lost a lot of back end talent (Trouba , Myers).Their LHD was their weak point and now their RHD is also thin.Plus they may have Connor and Laine starting late, depending on contracts.

AZ, CHI & VAN all missed the playoffs and I think they ALL Got better in the off season.

I see Minny, Edm, Ana & L.A. battling it out at the bottom of the conference.

Dallas and Colorado also got much better in the offseason so if Winnipeg slides it won’t make much difference.

The Oilers only playoff hope will be to finish in the top three
In the Pacific.

Pescador

Bag of Pucks:
It’s actually comical how desperate JP and his agent are to force a trade and how little actual leverage they have.

Jesse is becoming the Le’Veon Bell of the NHL. And that comparison flatters JP, because Bell had actually produced as a player.

Jesse has no track record, no allies, no leverage and no clue.

Go home and get your shinebox Jesse.

Let’s hope for your sake Jesse and his agent aren’t heading over to his mom’s house for spaghetti, meat balls & a shovel

Pescador

jtblack: There will always be some randomness. That’s the beauty of Sports. But I thiink if you dig deeper, you see that the Cream Rises to the Top year after year.That depends on what stage of the Cycle a team is in …

But for example.in the EAST all of these teams have made the playoffs the last 3 YEARS.

WASH
PITT
BOS
TOR
CBJ

Tampa missed by 1 point in 2017.Essentially you have 6 teams that have been in each year. Leaving 2 spots for the Randoms to try and get in.

The WEST has been more voliatile, but the Cream still Rises.

ST.L
NASH
WPG
SJhave all been regulars in the last 3 years.WPG finished 9th in 2017.St.L finished 9th in 2018.Otherwise they are regulars.

The WEST is def more wife open as we have seen ANA & L.A, winning clusters get too old after being competetive for a decade +.

Although Edmonton did surprise in 2017, let’s not forget they have made the playoffs once in 13 years. So the reality is their “surprise” ratio is 8%.

Great post, I think it’s fair to say the divide between hope & reality is larger in Oilerville than it is in other markets

jp

jtblack: There will always be some randomness. That’s the beauty of Sports. But I thiink if you dig deeper, you see that the Cream Rises to the Top year after year.That depends on what stage of the Cycle a team is in …

But for example.in the EAST all of these teams have made the playoffs the last 3 YEARS.

WASH
PITT
BOS
TOR
CBJ

Tampa missed by 1 point in 2017.Essentially you have 6 teams that have been in each year. Leaving 2 spots for the Randoms to try and get in.

The WEST has been more voliatile, but the Cream still Rises.

ST.L
NASH
WPG
SJhave all been regulars in the last 3 years.WPG finished 9th in 2017.St.L finished 9th in 2018.Otherwise they are regulars.

The WEST is def more wife open as we have seen ANA & L.A, winning clusters get too old after being competetive for a decade +.

Although Edmonton did surprise in 2017, let’s not forget they have made the playoffs once in 13 years. So the reality is their “surprise” ratio is 8%.

Agreed there is a fair bit of stability amongst the randomness. I was just trying to say that multiple teams over or underperform each year, and that it’s near impossible to predict those occurrences. The Oilers could very well be one of them. But yeah, they are likely to continue to suck.

jtblack

“Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).”

PLAYOFFS – how many times a team has made / how many years
EAST – BIG 4

PITT – 13 / 13 (Crosby and Malkin are OK)
WASH – 11 / 12
BOS – 10 / 12
TAMPA – 5 / 6

ADD TOR AND CBJ ARE BOTH 3 / 3. TOR looks very good again. CBJ got dismantled and will most likely miss.

WEST
BIG 3

SAN JOSE – 14 / 15
ST.LOUIS – 7 / 8
NASH – 5 / 5

VGS, WPG, COL all 2 / 2. I WOULD expect all 6 teams to make it again this year.

So although it seems a bit random, I bet most Lowetider’s could predict 12 of 16 playoff teams. Leaving only a few spots left for a pile of teams.

rickithebear

Those who have been on here since 05-06.

The most important thing LT has provided here
1. A place to come to read and present opinions (non data supported ideas) and ideas (data supported)
2. Measure of any org is the pennants and crowns.

In hockey 2 teams are champions each year.
1 wins 2 cup & Conf
1 wins 1 Conf.
That cannot be taken away from an org.

If we had 16-17 212 GA we make playoffs 16-17; 17-18; 18-19.
Our teams problem is GA.

Holland added
Neal, Archibald, Granlund, Jurco, Haas, Nygard that could potentially add 35+ evg to the 41 evg from
The 41 evg the 7.14 (585 fwd gm) fwd seasons from 14 skaters generated last year.

The biggest addition maybe Smith a repetative Top 3 +ve Open HD sh save% goalie.
And
Tippett/ Playfair demanding def coverage responsibility at all times.

rickithebear

Jet black:
The need for 3-1-1-1 structure has dragged down the median save % from .918 to .912.
Creating turmoil in the high % 3-1-1-1 structure teams.
They higher % 3-2-1 with strong Open HD Dman and goalie cores are playoff repetative.

As Edmonton would have been with high % 3-2-1 GA results we had from 16-17.
Would have been 3 playoffs in a row.

jtblack

jp: Agreed there is a fair bit of stability amongst the randomness. I was just trying to say that multiple teamsover or underperform each year, and that it’s near impossible to predict those occurrences. The Oilers could very well be one of them. But yeah, they are likely to continue to suck.

yes, there will always be some swings on who gets in and who doesn’t …. But the more I look at it, it looks like you have 2 or 3 spots open in each conference for the bottom 10 teams ….

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out … I just don’t see Edmonton leap frogging 5 teams and supplanting one of the playoff teams … As someone else mentioned, prov their only hope is to be Top 3 in the Division, meaning they have to beat Calgary, AZ and VAN. CAL didn’t improve but had 107 points. AZ and VAN did improve in my eyes.

Time will tell!

rickithebear

jp: Yeah that’s a shame. He was shy on the TOI, 11:15, 13:22 and 11:57 this past season.

But he can’t reasonably complain about opportunity, his career TOI with Oilers centers:

McDavid 406
Nuge 399
Strome 307
Draisaitl 283
Letestu 64
Brodziak 52
Cave 34

9 th highest EVTOI for wingers playing with Mcdavid in 18-19. 67 min EVTOI.
8 starting wingers.
They did not even give him 4 th line winger even minutes with Mcdavid.
They gave him PB forward even minutes.

After he had a 19 yr evg season in 17-18 superior to M. Tkachuk 19 yr season.

PC & Tmac usage of Puljarvis young talent was disgraceful.

67 min with Mcdavid after being better even goal scorer than Matt Tkachuk @ 19.

jtblack

rickithebear,

“If we had 16-17 212 GA we make playoffs 16-17; 17-18; 18-19.
Our teams problem is GA.”

GA in the WEST last year

CHI – 292
EDM – 274

Tippett has some work to do ….

jp

jtblack:
“Georgexs posted yesterday or the day before – it’s almost a crap shoot who makes the playoffs. In recent years almost half the teams that made the playoffs the previous year fell out and visa versa (apologies if I’m mischaracterizing this, but I think this is correct).”

PLAYOFFS – how many times a team has made / how many years
EAST – BIG 4

PITT – 13 / 13(Crosby and Malkin are OK)
WASH – 11 / 12
BOS – 10 / 12
TAMPA – 5 / 6

ADD TOR AND CBJ ARE BOTH 3 / 3. TOR looks very good again. CBJ got dismantled and will most likely miss.

WEST
BIG 3

SAN JOSE – 14 / 15
ST.LOUIS – 7 / 8
NASH – 5 / 5

VGS, WPG, COLall 2 / 2. I WOULD expect all 6 teams to make it again this year.

So although it seems a bit random, I bet most Lowetider’s could predict 12 of 16 playoff teams.Leaving only a few spots left for a pile of teams.

This is what GeorgeXS posted 2 days ago:

“Which teams make the playoffs?
One reasonable guess would be the teams that made the playoffs in the previous season.
Season, # of playoff teams that made the playoffs in the previous season
00, 14
01, 11
02, 10
03, 12
05, 11
06, 11
07, 11
08, 11
09, 10
10, 13
11, 12
12, 11
13, 11
14, 9
15, 11
16, 9
17, 9
18, 11
1. Since 2000-01 (when the league expanded to 30 teams), previous season playoff teams have always been the favorites to make the playoffs.
2. In 3 of the past 5 seasons, we’ve seen the odds drop close to even, i.e., only 9 of 16 prior playoff teams re-qualified, allowing 7 new teams to meet the threshold. This amount of turnover is a new development.
The playoff field appears more open than it used to be, less predictable. In fact, 3 of the finalists in the past 4 seasons didn’t qualify for the playoffs in their prior season (SJS in 15-16, VGK in 17-18, STL in 18-19). I think we have to go back to 05-06 when we had 2 finalists that hadn’t appeared in the playoffs in the previous full season (CAR vs. EDM).”

Yes, there are strong teams that make it most years, but in the past 5 playoff seasons there has been 40% (39%) turnover year to year (31 new teams in 80 playoff slots). In fact going back 7 years 5-7 teams each year made the playoffs after missing the previous year.

That’s a lot of turnover, and probably suggests most Lowetiders would fail to pick 12 of 16 correctly.

In any case, that’s also different than saying the Oilers will be one of the 5-7 teams who missed in 2019 that make it in 2020, but there will be surprises.

IMO there’s more chance for a big turn-around by the Oilers than you’re giving credit for. But I also like to drink the Kool Aid and am fully aware the big turn-around isn’t probable.

rickithebear

The nice thing about bringing in non elite forwards up at age 22-23 from AHL.

They get their chance to prove they can play in NHL
and
are usually willing to take a reasonable cap hit 3 yr. contract for 2 Nd line evg production. After

Yet you still hold RFA rights after they have turned themselves into a high value tradeable asset age 25-26.
Can usually be replaced by a well cooked 22-23 yr old prospect from the minors like Benson, Mcleod, Maximov.

With 1st line forward age NHLE talent jumping the 22-23 age cue.
To replace high priced top 6 fwd veterans.

Lavoie Even age NHLE says he may be a cue jumper.
Mcleod has not shown top 6 (#50-62 position) NHLE that has great value for a #7 to #10 fwd.
Maroody and Benson are almost there.
You want higher standard (@ 22-23) than the player they are replacing.

HT Joe

A few weeks (months?) ago, I was pissed off, so I went through all of the team records since Katz bought the team (2008-2009 season). Over that period, I did confirm that the Oilers have the worst regular season record of all the teams (second last – Buffalo).

But also from that data, I identified that the very best teams that averaged at least 100 points per season over those 11 years (Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston, Chicago, St. Louis – yes, really, etc.) are the teams that won the cup. Some of those teams only won once (St. Louis and Washington), and I think the only outlier was LA (they seemed to play better in the playoffs than their ongoing regular season would indicate). But the recipe for winning a cup seemed to be putting together a good enough team to coast into the playoffs year in, year out (not just squeak in). I guess it’s like buying more lottery tickets (again LA was the exception in 11 years).