The Chain

by Lowetide

Yesterday I posted my estimated games played for the RE 19-20 series. Among the names listed were several Bakersfield Condors from a year ago: Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Joe Gambardella, Josh Currie, Patrick Russell, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard. Not everyone on that list will succeed, but several will be moving on next summer. Who will provide the big story from Bakersfield this winter?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

CONDORS OPENING NIGHT 2019-20

Tyler Benson—Cooper Marody—Kailer Yamamoto

I think these three will play in the NHL, if not this season then 2020-21. Marody is in the best spot (depending on what happens in the next 10 days) but I think Benson could be there by mid-season. All three could find time in the NHL this season and we might be talking about this trio as part of the NHL solution a year from now.

Joe Gambardella—Brad Malone—Patrick Russell

All three names here could also play in the NHL but are unlikely to be long-term (100+ games) solutions. Gambardella is a favourite, but it’s likely these men play 50+ games in Bakersfield.

Josh Currie—Ryan McLeod—Kirill Maksimov

Currie is part of the Gambardella group, but McLeod and Maksimov are the ‘new order’ forwards we should be paying attention to closely this season. McLeod’s speed is going to get him noticed. Maksimov’s goal-scoring will get him noticed. Both men could catch a wave and play in the NHL, but it’s not reasonable to project it. Big, big hopes on both men.

Jakob Stukel—Luke Esposito—Cameron Hebig

This is the ‘outlier’ section of the prospect group, each of these men would have to spike like the Beatles in 1964 to have a career. I’ll be watching Hebig in year two, though.

Nolan Vesey, Beau Starrett, Ostap Safin, Anthony Peluso, Steve Iacobellis

I’m unhappy Safin is in this section but the injuries have absolutely flattened him as a prospect. These are basically roster fillers, if they’re going to move up now is the time to go.

Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard

Both of these men are mortal locks to play in the NHL, and both should play 240+ games and possibly beyond. This is an area of strength for the organization and both Jones and Bouchard could establish themselves as NHL top 4D.

William Lagesson—Ethan Bear

I think these two men are in the same category as Jones, perhaps a heartbeat below but it’s not worth debating at this point. History suggests one of these two men will play 240+ games and the other one will be Taylor Chorney or less.

Dmitri Samorukov—Keegan Lowe

Samorukov is in an interesting spot. I think he belongs in the Jones-Lagesson-Bear family, possibly beyond, but we need to see if he can build on last season’s impressive performance. Lowe is an NHL-AHL tweener and is helping these youngsters matriculate.

Brandon Manning—Logan Day

We can see the absolute depth on defense here, as Logan Day is a legit NHL prospect. He may not get there, but on the Condors depth chart he’s about where Cam Hebig is among forwards (while being a much better prospect).

Jake Kulevich—Vincent Desharnais

This is the depth area of the defensive depth chart.

Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner

I think Starrett will get his NHL debut this season and might build a career from here. I don’t see him as a starter but what I don’t know about goalie development is a lot. Wells and Skinner are good prospects, but need to emerge from the pack soon.

THE KEY

Jay Woodcroft and his handling of young players in 2018-19 was a turning point in Oilers development. He used Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson in prominent roles from the start, but also deployed Cameron Hebig as a feature player.

Woodcroft, more than any Oilers AHL coach since (probably) Claude Julien, inserted new pro players into the lineup in the heart of the order. He was rewarded with outstanding rookie AHL seasons from Marody, Benson, Shane Starrett and Logan Day.

This year, the rookies to watch will be Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov, Ryan McLeod, Kirill Maksimov and possibly Ostap Safin. Woodcroft’s magic with freshman could be a key element in the success of these men in 2019-20.

Claude Julien coached Oilers prospects for three seasons. Shawn Horcoff, Fernando Pisani, Jason Chimera, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Alexei Semenov, Ty Conklin and Jarret Stoll all developed with Julien as their first pro head coach. Jay Woodcroft’s first season as an AHL head coach is the most encouraging in terms of prospect development since the turn of the century.

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Munny

Professor Q,

I watched it to its conclusion… in part because I knew after the intro I would never choose to watch it again. It was weak. Paint-by-numbers clichéd action movie with no peril, not set in the SW universe, starring a Han Solo who isn’t a Han Solo. But then again Opie Cunningham probably should’ve had his license to make movies revoked long long ago.

Furthermore Disney reduces Han’s character to an Al Bundy reminiscing about his Senior Football Year, because apparently everything important that happened to Han happened in his first two weeks out in the world,

$300M movie that only grossed $400M, despite having the name franchise. Now I know why.

Rogue One has been the only really good movie of the Disney-era. They had better get the next one right because the franchise is drowning.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear: Source: https://www.nhl.com/news/roster-reboot-ethan-bear/c-308591838

Bear moved in with former Condors forward and Albertan Evan Polei in June and has been working out with local

Learning from Russell, as a plus?

Being able to defend and stick in the HD zone, or whatever its called, is great, however, when there is so much additional defending due to lack of certain other skills (ability to defend the gap off the rush and stop zone entries and ability to transition the puck out of the game with possession), well, maybe the player isn’t the best mentor for the youngsters?

Professor Q

Munny: I’ve seen it. Very good visuals. Story needs work.
______

Yeraslob got me thinking scifi so I just tried 10 minutes of Solo: A Star Wars Story…oh dear Gord this looks bad.How can a studio make home runs like Moana and then shit the bed like the last three Star Wars movies?

I loved Solo, actually. Pretty good film. Loved the twist.

rickithebear

I pushed Dubois ahead of Puljujarvi that draft year.
Dubois age NHLE screamed #2.
Many I presented too started to get on board.
The analytics said Dubois #2.

Stephen

Munny: I’ve seen it. Very good visuals. Story needs work.
______

Yeraslob got me thinking scifi so I just tried 10 minutes of Solo: A Star Wars Story…oh dear Gord this looks bad.How can a studio make home runs like Moana and then shit the bed like the last three Star Wars movies?

Don’t let the “Disney” name fool you. The live-action and CG movies are completely different studios/worlds/creative teams. In fact, the creative team at Pixar has been involved in Disney CG movies over the last several years, ever since they were acquired, because Disney realized those guys had a better track record of producing good CG movies.

rickithebear

If bear is skating and learning from Russell and Benning!
Amen to that!

rickithebear

Leadfarmer:

Ran into the Dallas Goalie coach in Disney Orlando.
During Olympic break 2014.
We were waiting for families to come down in animal kingdom water rafts.
Shot at them with water Gun.
He was on Holiday’s with good friend Shawn Horcoff.

We talked about my Table hockey, Hit goalie, Closed shot, Elite 0% corsi theory.
He offered me his E- mail saying Reghr loved Analysis.
His wife walked up.
“ what you taking about”
“Goalie Play”
She said “ you could find each other in a Snow storm”
Mike Valley was starting goalie 95-96 Chilliwack team with Horcoff.

I contacted him by email.
He said he wanted to arrange discussion.

He was replaced as goalie coach and nothing happened.

Never go to Disney a week before standard Feb. break.
We thought it would be a great Idea.
ESPN shot all the National cheerleading championship shows during that week.
Packs of Cheerleading association estrogen filled ponied tailed wolves.
Sat with A couple who were cheerleader national champs from diffrent SEC schools.
Their cheerleading factory had 10,000 students.
Holy fuck.

Islander & Dallas star final not a chance.

Reja

Victoria Oil: Especially if the GM is ‘decision-making challenged’ like Chia Pete was.

Props on The Jeffersons reference.

If Jesse would have turned into a homerun Pete Craig and company would still be employed it was a big Whiff cost them their jobs. How good would Dubois are Tkachuk look on our roster.

jp

For fun and as a reference to what’s actually happened I looked at Oilers players last 3 years in average actual and per 82 games scoring:

Player GP-G-A-TP GP-G-A-TP
McDavid- 81-37-71-108 82-38-72-110
Draisaitl– 81-35-49-84 – 82-35-50-85
Nuge—— 75-23-30-53 – 82-25-33-58
Neal——- 68-18-17-35 – 82-22-20-42
Gagner— 62-11-20-31 — 82-15-26-41
Chiasson- 72-14-13-27 — 82-16-16-30
Granlund- 66-13-9-22 —- 82-16-11-27
Archibald- 40-7-5-12 —– 82-13-11-24
Kassian— 77-10-13-23 — 82-10-14-24
Khaira—– 46-5-8-13 —– 82-9-15-24
Puljujarvi– 46-6-6-12 —– 82-10-12-22
Brodziak— 73-8-11-19 — 82-9-12-21

Klefbom— 70-7-22-29 — 82-8-26-34
Nurse —– 69-7-19-26 — 82-8-23-31
Benning — 68-5-13-18 — 82-6-15-21
Larsson— 75-4-13-17 — 82-4-15-19
Russell — 73-3-14-17 — 82-3-16-19

Smith——- 52 22-21-6 2.77 .911
Koskinen– 51 25-21-6 2.93 .906 *just last season

**Partial seasons**
Jones——— 17-1-5-6 — 82-5-24-29
Currie——— 21-2-3-5 — 82-8-12-20
Bear———– 18-1-3-4 — 82-4-14-18
Gambardella 15-0-3-3 — 82-0-16-16
Yamamoto— 26-1-4-5 — 82-4-12-16
Jurco———- 19-2-1-3 — 82-10-6-16
Cave———– 33-2-1-3 — 82-4–3–7

Some guys need to recover, but this roster could be non-terrible. The 3 year averages for the current Oilers are a huge improvement on Lucic as the #6 scoring forward with 20 points.

Victoria Oil

Reja: The world junior tournament can really mess with a GM’s head. If a player of interest goes on a heater he’s moving on up to the east side with a deluxe apartment in the sky.

Especially if the GM is ‘decision-making challenged’ like Chia Pete was.

Props on The Jeffersons reference.

Munny

Victoria Oil:
Munny,

Chernobyl on HBO or Crave. Very well done. 9.5 on IMDB

Dude, so right. I couldn’t give it a 9.5, but to me, that was about as good as TV gets.

Munny

Reja: Too Late with John Hawkes and Robert Forester

This looks interesting. I will try and track it down. Thank you.

Victoria Oil

Munny,

Chernobyl on HBO or Crave. Very well done. 9.5 on IMDB

yeraslob

Munny,

Yeah the ending could’ve been better, it seemed hurried.

Agree with the Star Wars take, lol. Guess you gotta be a fan

Reja

Victoria Oil: Well said. It takes courage to be a contrarian.

That said, I don’t think PLD should have been considered a contrarian pick as he had a better NHLE than Puljujarvi (who just had a hot WJC playing with Laine).

The world junior tournament can really mess with a GM’s head. If a player of interest goes on a heater he’s moving on up to the east side with a deluxe apartment in the sky.

Munny

Reja,

I’ve seen it about a dozen times, including in the theatre on release. Peterson hasn’t lived up to the promise of his directing in that debut since, but that is one helluva debut. Maybe the best portrayal of a claustrophobic environment on film.

But I’m avoiding subtitles lol otherwise I’d be watching Burning… which looks pretty freaking awesome.

In the first 10 minutes we have a fantasy dancing chick hot as fuck who hits on a writer (!), telling him he used to know her (right) and who then pantomimes eating imaginary tangerines on a subsequent date. If that’s not a mind fuck, I don’t know what is.

That’s a lot of narrative promise in 10 minutes. I will be watching that one very soon.

(*whispers* btw, and this won’t be popular, I think Shawshank is the most over-rated movie of all time)

Victoria Oil

jp: Maybe it was the only offer he got again this summer?

I remember early in 2017-18, some people were suggesting a 3 x $3mln extension for Maroon.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Munny,

Get woke…. Go broke.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Interesting to read a bit about Bear’s off season training with some teammates local to Edmonton. Wonder how his work on fast twitch fibres helps his first step and pick retrievals. Benson too.

Source: https://www.nhl.com/news/roster-reboot-ethan-bear/c-308591838

Bear moved in with former Condors forward and Albertan Evan Polei in June and has been working out with local Oilers players and prospects such as Kris Russell, Matt Benning and Tyler Benson since.

“We use weights, we do fast-twitch, a lot of track stuff and a lot of mobility,” Bear, detailing the group’s exercises, said. “If it’s a Monday or Tuesday, we’ll go on the ice after. Thursdays and Fridays, as well, for an hour. We do skating stuff and edge work. Then we do shooting stuff and a lot of hands and other skills.

“We kind of hit it all here and I’m just trying to take advantage of that.”

Munny

yeraslob:
Munny,

How about Upside Down?I think Kisten Dunst is in that one.

I’ve seen it. Very good visuals. Story needs work.
______

Yeraslob got me thinking scifi so I just tried 10 minutes of Solo: A Star Wars Story… oh dear Gord this looks bad. How can a studio make home runs like Moana and then shit the bed like the last three Star Wars movies?

Reja

Munny:
Those who know my posting history as spOILer and Munny, know I’m a movie nut.

Trying to decide what to watch… here are the movie options thus far tonight:

South Korean movie “Burning” (looks like a complete mind-fuck going by the first 10 mins).

Aronofsky’s movie “Mother” (haven’t liked one of his yet, and despite one nice cinematic move in the first 10 minutes, looks weak). Netflix is telling me I should watch it.

“The Girl With all the Gifts” (not a zombie fan at all, but looks like an interesting take on the genre after 10).

“Burning” looks like the best choice but not sure if I want to read a movie after a long day. Last foreign film I watched was the Millennium trilogy, which was okay acting and story, but piss-poor cinema/visuals.This Burning is probably better… but, reading.

Any recommendations for a flick out there?

Das Boot for a subtitle movie it’s like shawshank Redemption gets better every time you watch it.Too Late with John Hawkes and Robert Forester both damn fine actors you’ll enjoy this movie if you haven’t seen it.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The Last Kingdom is an excellent series. I enjoyed Vikings more, but TLK is worthwhile; like a British version of the same series.

yeraslob

Munny,

How about Upside Down? I think Kisten Dunst is in that one.

Munny

Professor Q: I’m watching Hell’s Kitchen with some Into The Badlands and The Last Kingdom (and reading some The Way Of Kings).

I avoid TV fiction. Like the plague. I just plowed through Mindhunter this week, because Fincher, and despite some good bits (the serial killer dialogs), am sorry I largely wasted my time.

Victoria Oil

defmn: If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

Exceptionalism is never a story of playing the odds because too many people know how to calculate them. It doesn’t mean you do stupid or erratic things but it does mean that sometimes you take a Broberg with a Zegras still on the board because something that you cannot calculate or articulate makes you do so.

If you are wrong the criticism is that you should have played the odds. If you are right you jump ahead of your competition. Taking Puljujarvi was playing the odds, for example but Columbus took Dubois to much criticism. Chiarelli takes a lot of crap (rightly) here but taking Puljujarvi is generally not part of that criticism because he played the odds even though time tells us that it wasn’t a good decision. Same with Yakupov.

So all I am saying is that playing the odds is not a recipe for success so much as it is a description of taking the safe path. The safe path keeps you from making big mistakes but it isn’t the way to separate from the crowd.

Well said. It takes courage to be a contrarian.

That said, I don’t think PLD should have been considered a contrarian pick as he had a better NHLE than Puljujarvi (who just had a hot WJC playing with Laine).

yeraslob

Munny,

I must’ve watched it when Unblock Us could be used with Netflix.

Munny

yeraslob,

Yeah the premise looks awesome, and tailor-made for movie (ticking clock). Stupid Netflix.

Munny

Professor Q: mother! is a difficult watch. Some praise its artistry but I found it lacking on a lot of fronts, and some gratuity that seemed random. Drags on, a bit pompous, and doesn’t really show the “intended” Mother Nature – Bible Story – Human History and Future parable it thinks it does.

Thank you for the heads up.

I don’t find anything “difficult” to watch, unless we are talking about low level comedy, lol. In fact I appreciate being made uncomfortable by a film. But I haven’t found Aronofsky to be artistic in the past; rather pretentious and pompous, as you say, Otherwise that would be my choice, because .I usually love artistic movies.

I’ll watch it eventually, solely because it is a “horror” and an Aronofsky, but I’m expecting to be disappointed (which typically helps a movie, lol).

yeraslob

Munny,

I liked the concept of time is money or, in this case, life.

Munny

Nope Netflix fails again. Don’t got it.

Professor Q

Munny,

mother! is a difficult watch. Some praise its artistry but I found it lacking on a lot of fronts, and some gratuity that seemed random. Drags on, a bit pompous, and doesn’t really show the “intended” Mother Nature – Bible Story – Human History and Future parable it thinks it does.

I’m watching Hell’s Kitchen with some Into The Badlands and The Last Kingdom (and reading some The Way Of Kings).

I think the most recent movies I’ve watched are Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot; and Arctic.

Munny

yeraslob:
Munny,

In Time.Starring Justin Timberlake

Thought it was largely panned? I like Timberlake, though. Googles… Huh. Sci-fi, Logan’s Run story, Gattaca director (which suffered from awful art direction)… might be something I’m in the mood for if its on Netflix.

Why did you like it?

yeraslob

Munny,

In Time. Starring Justin Timberlake

defmn

Munny:
defmn,

I think the philosophy of betting on the home run over the center of the Bell curve has a lot to be said for it.Depending on the circumstances, of course.

…Just to clarify my own position.

Yeah. I think Lowetide advocates a similar strategy when he talks about drafting for skill in later rounds rather than going for the fourth line guy even when there is a noticeable shortcoming in other areas.

There are, as you say, circumstances to be considered. You have to be able to afford to strike out if you are taking the home run swing.

Scungilli Slushy

ArmchairGM: They can’t sign him without selecting him in the expansion draft first. The draft happens before July 1st.

Ok

Munny

Those who know my posting history as spOILer and Munny, know I’m a movie nut.

Trying to decide what to watch… here are the movie options thus far tonight:

South Korean movie “Burning” (looks like a complete mind-fuck going by the first 10 mins).

Aronofsky’s movie “Mother” (haven’t liked one of his yet, and despite one nice cinematic move in the first 10 minutes, looks weak). Netflix is telling me I should watch it.

“The Girl With all the Gifts” (not a zombie fan at all, but looks like an interesting take on the genre after 10).

“Burning” looks like the best choice but not sure if I want to read a movie after a long day. Last foreign film I watched was the Millennium trilogy, which was okay acting and story, but piss-poor cinema/visuals. This Burning is probably better… but, reading.

Any recommendations for a flick out there?

Munny

defmn,

I think the philosophy of betting on the home run over the center of the Bell curve has a lot to be said for it. Depending on the circumstances, of course.

…Just to clarify my own position. 😉

Munny

defmn,

Lol, fair enough!

(I will likely go to my grave thinking that about Jobs though)

defmn

Munny:

Musk is probably the most likely of the new billionaires to be bankrupt in 10 years. If not sooner.

The smart bettors on presidential races made a killing on the last election.The data pointed to Trump, if one understands how polling has changed…and that there’s a big difference between data and the reporting thereof.

I agree with these parts. 😉

Munny

Bag of Pucks: Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

I think a serious and compelling case could be made that teams rely too much on qualitative data and not enough on quantitative when it comes to the draft.

The draft guru who relies the most on quantitative data (and publishes) is LT, by far and away. He’s the guy that would take a Barzal, or a Debrincat, or a Yamamoto… because of the numbers. And his lists differ greatly from Bobby’s scout-polled list, or team preferences revealed by the draft. Which leads one to believe qualitative is playing a big role.

But even he will tell you that quantitative doesn’t always win or rather predict correctly.

The trick is knowing when the one side of the story will win over the other side (quant vs qual)… and in the realm of predicting yutes, that is a very very difficult trick.

Munny

defmn: If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

Don’t know why I am picking on this post because I enjoy DEF’s contributions, but here goes…

Steve Jobs felt he was playing the odds. Marketing people agree. Ad so did the buying public.

Musk does work for governments (global warming)… and is probably the most likely of the new billionaires to be bankrupt in 10 years. If not sooner.

The smart bettors on presidential races made a killing on the last election. The data pointed to Trump all the way, if one understands how polling has changed… and that there’s a big difference between data and the reporting thereof.

leadfarmer

rickithebear,

We all enjoyed the New York Islanders Dallas Stars final

pts2pndr

defmn: OK but the point I was trying to make is that diversity of talent, personality is important to the concept of team. I think the biggest mistake I made in my younger years was hiring guys because I thought they were like me. Only after making that mistake a few times did I figure out that the company didn’t need more of me but the parts I wasn’t that good at.

And you are right that a common enemy or hurt feelings can motivate strongly but I think those are more short term no?
What i have found that once you have success the bond is the success and common feeling within the team. This can be carried for an extended time. Your theory on many parts to make a whole and or team is valid.

defmn

Bag of Pucks: I’ve long been a critic of draft philosophy predicated on the groupthink that dominates consensus ranking bpa philosophy. Drafting Yakupov or Puljujarvi and then insisting those picks weren’t mistakes because that’s what the herd decided is the kind of safe/misguided management I’m against as well. As I’ve said many times here, conventional wisdom breeds conventional results. Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

But that’s not what I mean by playing the odds. What I mean by that is gathering all the intel you can to create competitive advantage and then leveraging those insights consistently and prudently to win at moneypuck. It’s stacking the odds in your favour not chasing outliers based on your gut. I think Broberg may prove to be a good example of this competitive edge approach.

McDavid was the safest AND smartest pick, because on rare occasions, the conventional wisdom and smart money odds align. That’s not contrarian thinking, but being contrarian only is as ineffective as the safe approach.

I am also a huge proponent of gathering any information from anywhere you can get it. I am a dinosaur of the acrimonious and nasty fighting between the stats guys and the watch the games crowds dating back to the days when posting on HFBoards was all there was.

I never understood the anger on either side other than that generated by the rudeness that often punctuated the positions from both sides. Why anybody would want fewer inputs into a decision making process just makes no sense to me.

So I agree with you completely that qualitative analysis is important along with the numbers, along with the often badly articulated decision that comes from pulling a hundred different threads together woven by perception.

Sometimes the numbers tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Sometimes they don’t.

ArmchairGM

Scungilli Slushy: I think, but am not certain, it’s the other way around.

If they sign him, that’s their pick.

They can’t sign him without selecting him in the expansion draft first. The draft happens before July 1st.

pts2pndr

McNuge93: Isn’t “Oilers hockey” and “exciting” an oxymoron?

If you don’t find watching McDavid and Draisaitl you need to find a new spot to watch!

GordieHoweHatTrick

Unicorns Ver.1.113

Nygard-McD-Kass
JJ-Drai-Neal
Benson-Nuge-Chia
Granlund-Haas-Archibald
Gag

Nurse-Lars
Klef-Ben
Rus-Jones
Pers

pts2pndr

Bag of Pucks: I’ve long been a critic of draft philosophy predicated on the groupthink that dominates consensus ranking bpa philosophy. Drafting Yakupov or Puljujarvi and then insisting those picks weren’t mistakes because that’s what the herd decided is the kind of safe/misguided management I’m against as well. As I’ve said many times here, conventional wisdom breeds conventional results. Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

But that’s not what I mean by playing the odds. What I mean by that is gathering all the intel you can to create competitive advantage and then leveraging those insights consistently and prudently to win at moneypuck. It’s stacking the odds in your favour not chasing outliers based on your gut. I think Broberg may prove to be a good example of this competitive edge approach.

McDavid was the safest AND smartest pick, because on rare occasions, the conventional wisdom and smart money odds align. That’s not contrarian thinking, but being contrarian only is as ineffective as the safe approach.

While I agree with you to a certain extent it is common knowledge that for the top echelon picks ie 1 through 5 consensus is more often than not the correct way to proceed. Into the latter part of the first round and later your theory has much more validity in my opinion.

defmn

pts2pndr: A team can be united by many things with winning at best number three! Common enemy, to prove someone or everybody wrong number two. It has to have a commonality and buy in whatever it is. For example Vegas used the nobody wants you/prove everyone wrong. The easier emotions to feed always work better.

OK but the point I was trying to make is that diversity of talent, personality is important to the concept of team. I think the biggest mistake I made in my younger years was hiring guys because I thought they were like me. Only after making that mistake a few times did I figure out that the company didn’t need more of me but the parts I wasn’t that good at.

And you are right that a common enemy or hurt feelings can motivate strongly but I think those are more short term no?

Bag of Pucks

defmn: If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

Exceptionalism is never a story of playing the odds because too many people know how to calculate them. It doesn’t mean you do stupid or erratic things but it does mean that sometimes you take a Broberg with a Zegras still on the board because something that you cannot calculate or articulate makes you do so.

If you are wrong the criticism is that you should have played the odds. If you are right you jump ahead of your competition. Taking Puljujarvi was playing the odds, for example but Columbus took Dubois to much criticism. Chiarelli takes a lot of crap (rightly) here but taking Puljujarvi is generally not part of that criticism because he played the odds even though time tells us that it wasn’t a good decision. Same with Yakupov.

So all I am saying is that playing the odds is not a recipe for success so much as it is a description of taking the safe path. The safe path keeps you from making big mistakes but it isn’t the way to separate from the crowd.

I’ve long been a critic of draft philosophy predicated on the groupthink that dominates consensus ranking bpa philosophy. Drafting Yakupov or Puljujarvi and then insisting those picks weren’t mistakes because that’s what the herd decided is the kind of safe/misguided management I’m against as well. As I’ve said many times here, conventional wisdom breeds conventional results. Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

But that’s not what I mean by playing the odds. What I mean by that is gathering all the intel you can to create competitive advantage and then leveraging those insights consistently and prudently to win at moneypuck. It’s stacking the odds in your favour not chasing outliers based on your gut. I think Broberg may prove to be a good example of this competitive edge approach.

McDavid was the safest AND smartest pick, because on rare occasions, the conventional wisdom and smart money odds align. That’s not contrarian thinking, but being contrarian only is as ineffective as the safe approach.