The Chain

Yesterday I posted my estimated games played for the RE 19-20 series. Among the names listed were several Bakersfield Condors from a year ago: Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson, Kailer Yamamoto, Joe Gambardella, Josh Currie, Patrick Russell, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Ethan Bear and Evan Bouchard. Not everyone on that list will succeed, but several will be moving on next summer. Who will provide the big story from Bakersfield this winter?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

CONDORS OPENING NIGHT 2019-20

Tyler Benson—Cooper Marody—Kailer Yamamoto

I think these three will play in the NHL, if not this season then 2020-21. Marody is in the best spot (depending on what happens in the next 10 days) but I think Benson could be there by mid-season. All three could find time in the NHL this season and we might be talking about this trio as part of the NHL solution a year from now.

Joe Gambardella—Brad Malone—Patrick Russell

All three names here could also play in the NHL but are unlikely to be long-term (100+ games) solutions. Gambardella is a favourite, but it’s likely these men play 50+ games in Bakersfield.

Josh Currie—Ryan McLeod—Kirill Maksimov

Currie is part of the Gambardella group, but McLeod and Maksimov are the ‘new order’ forwards we should be paying attention to closely this season. McLeod’s speed is going to get him noticed. Maksimov’s goal-scoring will get him noticed. Both men could catch a wave and play in the NHL, but it’s not reasonable to project it. Big, big hopes on both men.

Jakob Stukel—Luke Esposito—Cameron Hebig

This is the ‘outlier’ section of the prospect group, each of these men would have to spike like the Beatles in 1964 to have a career. I’ll be watching Hebig in year two, though.

Nolan Vesey, Beau Starrett, Ostap Safin, Anthony Peluso, Steve Iacobellis

I’m unhappy Safin is in this section but the injuries have absolutely flattened him as a prospect. These are basically roster fillers, if they’re going to move up now is the time to go.

Caleb Jones—Evan Bouchard

Both of these men are mortal locks to play in the NHL, and both should play 240+ games and possibly beyond. This is an area of strength for the organization and both Jones and Bouchard could establish themselves as NHL top 4D.

William Lagesson—Ethan Bear

I think these two men are in the same category as Jones, perhaps a heartbeat below but it’s not worth debating at this point. History suggests one of these two men will play 240+ games and the other one will be Taylor Chorney or less.

Dmitri Samorukov—Keegan Lowe

Samorukov is in an interesting spot. I think he belongs in the Jones-Lagesson-Bear family, possibly beyond, but we need to see if he can build on last season’s impressive performance. Lowe is an NHL-AHL tweener and is helping these youngsters matriculate.

Brandon Manning—Logan Day

We can see the absolute depth on defense here, as Logan Day is a legit NHL prospect. He may not get there, but on the Condors depth chart he’s about where Cam Hebig is among forwards (while being a much better prospect).

Jake Kulevich—Vincent Desharnais

This is the depth area of the defensive depth chart.

Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, Stuart Skinner

I think Starrett will get his NHL debut this season and might build a career from here. I don’t see him as a starter but what I don’t know about goalie development is a lot. Wells and Skinner are good prospects, but need to emerge from the pack soon.

THE KEY

Jay Woodcroft and his handling of young players in 2018-19 was a turning point in Oilers development. He used Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson in prominent roles from the start, but also deployed Cameron Hebig as a feature player.

Woodcroft, more than any Oilers AHL coach since (probably) Claude Julien, inserted new pro players into the lineup in the heart of the order. He was rewarded with outstanding rookie AHL seasons from Marody, Benson, Shane Starrett and Logan Day.

This year, the rookies to watch will be Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov, Ryan McLeod, Kirill Maksimov and possibly Ostap Safin. Woodcroft’s magic with freshman could be a key element in the success of these men in 2019-20.

Claude Julien coached Oilers prospects for three seasons. Shawn Horcoff, Fernando Pisani, Jason Chimera, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Alexei Semenov, Ty Conklin and Jarret Stoll all developed with Julien as their first pro head coach. Jay Woodcroft’s first season as an AHL head coach is the most encouraging in terms of prospect development since the turn of the century.

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146 Responses to "The Chain"

  1. Woogie63 says:

    Woodcraft and his staff will play a huge role in making the Oilers a long term contender. We need to count on this team to consistently be adding NHL players. Grandlund, Archibald, Chiasson are not the answer.

  2. Bling says:

    I stand by my belief that Marody’s passing and hockey sense are NHL-ready right now, and I disagree with the observation that his skating is not up to par. If Marody is indeed ready — and I believe he is — Benson and KY would also be better off developmentally speaking.

    As OP has alluded to before, Cooper was the real driver on that first line last season.

    Letting Benson and KY assume that responsibility in the AHL would be good for their development, and also allow the Oilers to stagger the inclusion of these three young men into the lineup over a period of 1-2 years.

    With RNH due for a new contract in two seasons, you have to start finding out about Marody right now. Is he a 3C? 2C? A winger?

  3. jtblack says:

    when does rookie camp begin?

  4. Bag of Pucks says:

    Can’t help but think what a different article this would be if Puljujarvi had played the last two seasons in the A, and was coming off a dominant playoff showing where he led the Condors to the Calder Cup.

    Why can’t we have nice things?

  5. texmex says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Can’t help but think what a different article this would be if Puljujarvi had played the last two seasons in the A, and was coming off a dominant playoff showing where he lead the Condors to the Calder Cup.

    Why can’t we have nice things?

    Because Peter Chiarelli!!

  6. Woogie63 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Can’t help but think what a different article this would be if Puljujarvi had played the last two seasons in the A, and was coming off a dominant playoff showing where he lead the Condors to the Calder Cup.

    Why can’t we have nice things?

    I am still scratching my head, why a talented 21 year old RW does not want to play on a team with 97, 29 and 93?

    It is right up there with why 29 is not penned in to drive the 1A line?

  7. jtblack says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    “Why can’t we have nice things?”

    We do. #97. #29. #93. The Swedes on D. Darnell. The Killer B’s (Benson, Bouchard, Broberg). and many more great pieces. Peter derailed the timeline on REBUILD 3.0. But now finally rebuild 4.0 looks like it has legs AND it seems we have a GM who is not willing to part with assets for the quick fix.

    We Wait.

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its not very often that I am on board with a “real prospect” spending an over-age season in junior but I really would like to see Safin back in Halifax – even moreso with Lavoie now an Oiler.

    Don’t see it happening as, given he is both an import and an over-ager, I don’t think the Moosehead will have room for him.

    Hopefully he stays healthy and can work his way up the Condors’ depth chart.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    LT, I think you nailed the top 3 lines perfectly although I think its likely that one of Benson or Marody break camp with the big club.

    When one of them is up with the big club, I think Currie jumps up to the top line (can play center if its Marody) and then Safin would be a fine fit with McLeod and Maksi.

    I think Joe G. would be a fine fit for the 12th to 14th spot on the Oil – I think he is the type of player that can make an impact on a 4th line – he’s not fast but he seems to be able to get in quickly on the forecheck and is tenacious. He’s got some skill so he can finish so may be able to provide some production. An “older” prospect so it won’t hurt to have him in the press box here or there. I’d rather see him than a Cave, Currie or Brodziak, however, with so many bodies, he’s likely starting the year in the Bake.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    I see Jones/Persson as 6-7 in the NHL (maybe somewhere between 4 and 7 depending on a “pop” and the following:

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    I think Lowe is a good partner for the rookie Bouchard and, although I think Bear has his issues with speed and battle, he’s “earned” the 1RD spot for now.

    I look for Bouchard to excel on the 2nd pairing and, with PP1 time, to be 0.75 points per game. His goal share may be closer to 50% but his box-cars are going to shine.

    I don’t want anyone to fail at the NHL, obviously, or to get hurt, obviously, but I can’t wait until Lagesson gets his shot.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Will definitely be keeping my eye on McLeod an Maksimov this season.

    I think McLeod may struggle with playing center at the pro level as rookie but I look for him to get more comfortable as the season goes on.

    Its so nice that he can be “3C” but have some real skill on his wings – haven’t had that type of depth in the Bake for a while and the forwards are the weaker of the groups.

    Maksimov has the advanced 2-way game – in my mind moreso that McLeod even. He will likely have an up and down season as well but, by the end of the year, he should be a mainstay in the top 6 and PP1 and I’m curious to see where his goal total ends up.

  12. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Can’t help but think what a different article this would be if Puljujarvi had played the last two seasons in the A, and was coming off a dominant playoff showing where he lead the Condors to the Calder Cup.

    Why can’t we have nice things?

    I don’t know the behind the scenes drama with Jesse but I have a strong suspicion that Jesse’s agent would have thrown more then a hissy fit if Jesse was in the AHL for the above mentioned length of time.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sttarett’s career path as of now is somewhat similar to that of Dave Rittich’s – in order to keep pace that means that Starrett will need to spend most of the season in the NHL.

    He likely gets an opportunity as an injury call-up – Smith is likely to spend some time on IR with a groin or something.

    How will he perform when he gets his shot?

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dave Manson rarely gets talked about but I believe should get much credit for the success of the group last year – up arrows for Jones, Lagesson and Day. He used his veterans in Stanton and Lowe wonderfully. I’m excited for him to work with Bouchard and Samorukov.

    I’ve wondered, was their an organizational shift with Jay W. and playing the “real prospects” in prominent roles or was it a function of actually having more than 1 or 2 of those players on the roster?

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: It could have been worlds but I have seen them paired for team Sweden.

    No, they were never paired together at the worlds.

    Eliteprospects has player starts for all their international games – including WC, WJC, U18, U17, etc.

    I don’t think they ever played together.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Hope I don’t overstep but, to continue the overnight conversation, Tippett has been very clear in numerous appearances that he will be starting the season with McDavid and Drai paired together. He has said it expressly. He has talked about three pairings in particular:

    McDavid/Drai
    Nuge/Neal
    Archibald/Granlud

    I think we can reasonably rely on those pairings and try and work the rest of the lineup around that.

  17. yeraslob says:

    Why can’t we have nice things?

    Wonder which nice thing we’ll lose in the expansion draft?

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    Reja: I don’t know the behind the scenes drama with Jesse but I have a strong suspicion that Jesse’s agent would have thrown more then a hissy fit if Jesse was in the AHL for the above mentionedlength of time.

    Agreed, but find it frustrating that the tail ends up wagging the dog so often in this market.

    There needs to be a better vetting process to weedout the drama queens pre draft.

  19. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?

    https://theathletic.com/1151534/2019/08/24/is-riley-sheahan-an-ideal-fit-for-the-oilers-as-their-no-3-centre/

  20. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?

    https://theathletic.com/1151534/2019/08/24/is-riley-sheahan-an-ideal-fit-for-the-oilers-as-their-no-3-centre/

    A question for you. What has happened to the other two Oiler writers at the Athletic?
    They haven’t posted anything in a long time.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: A question for you. What has happened to the other two Oiler writers at the Athletic?
    They haven’t posted anything in a long time.

    Both men will be posting articles soon.

  22. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: Both men will be posting articles soon.

    Great. They both provide quality.

  23. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: Agreed, but find it frustrating that the tail ends up wagging the dog so often in this market.

    There needs to be a better vetting process to weedout the drama queens pre draft.

    You just never know. The hard partying womanizing flake prima donna could turn into a team all-star and leader where as the higher projected player and individual ends up being a journeyman player.

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    Reja: You just never know. The hard partying womanizing flake prima donna could turn into a team all-star and leader where as the higher projected player and individual ends up being a journeyman player.

    Logic would seem to dictate that the odds are lesser betting on the flakes over the dedicated professionals, Andrew Ference aside.

    Drafting distractions seems antithetical to building a team first culture.

  25. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks: Logic would seem to dictate that the odds are lesser betting on the flakes over the dedicated professionals, Andrew Ference aside.

    Drafting distractions seems antithetical to building a team first culture.

    Not sure about that. A team, by definition, requires a diversity of talents and personalities as long as they are united by the stated goal of winning hockey games. The joker in the locker room serves a function just as the tough guy does on the ice.

  26. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its not very often that I am on board with a “real prospect” spending an over-age season in junior but I really would like to see Safin back in Halifax – even moreso with Lavoie now an Oiler.

    Don’t see it happening as, given he is both an import and an over-ager, I don’t think the Moosehead will have room for him.

    Hopefully he stays healthy and can work his way up the Condors’ depth chart.

    Agreed. Based on his last season he’ll start in the ECHL. A return to the Q is a lateral move at worst, and might be a better spot for him. It would be great if he can get back on track this season.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett has said it very clearly, on numerous occasions this off-season, he sees McDavid and Drai as a pair, at least to start. He’s actually mentioned 3 specific pairs quite a bit:

    McDavid/Drai
    Nuge/Neal
    Granlund/Archibald

    I think we can build around those 3 pairings because we know that’s what the coach is currently thinking.

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Benson/Nuge/Neal
    Granlund/Marody/Archibald
    Nygard/Khaira/Chiasson

    Ooops, no Gagner and he’s actually been about a 0.5 P/G guy over the last few years and was the 5th highest P/60 on the team last year with almost no McDavid time:

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Nygard/Nuge/Neal
    Granlund/Marody/Archibal
    Gagner/Khaira/Chiasson

    Drai/McDavid/Gagner
    Benson/Nuge/Neal
    Granlund/Khaira/Arhibald
    Nygard/Haas/Kassian

    Chiasson?

    Drai/McDavid/Kassian
    Neal/Drai/Gagner
    Granlund/Khaira/Arhibald
    Nygard/Haas/Chiasson

    Bah, I don’t know

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    defmn: Not sure about that. A team, by definition, requires a diversity of talents and personalities as long as they are united by the stated goal of winning hockey games. The joker in the locker room serves a function just as the tough guy does on the ice.

    Absolutely. Nothing wrong with a sense of humour. Imo, “flake” conveys a more prohibitive dysfunction.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    Harpers Hair: A question for you. What has happened to the other two Oiler writers at the Athletic?
    They haven’t posted anything in a long time.

    Summer vacation.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    yeraslob: Wonder which nice thing we’ll lose in the expansion draft?

    We won’t lose anything major. Nuge and Larsson don’t need to be protected due to their pending UFA status, Bouchard Samorukov Broberg and the like are exempt. We’ll lose a Bear or a Lagesson type – nothing irreplaceable.

  31. Reja says:

    Bag of Pucks: Logic would seem to dictate that the odds are lesser betting on the flakes over the dedicated professionals, Andrew Ference aside.

    Drafting distractions seems antithetical to building a team first culture.

    A little of topic Glenn Anderson was called a so called flake. Linseman Tikk were different and the list was extremely long back in the day the players had more open personalities because they could. Nowadays the players are advised (future earnings) scared shitless to say anything besides continue to get pucks in deep come out strong in the second blah blah blah bullshit can’t blame them for acting like robots one joke are teasing and here comes the PC crowd out for blood. Love watching Listening to Pronger interviews especially Philly very rarely do I see a lighthearted funny interview anymore.

  32. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks: Absolutely. Nothing wrong with a sense of humour. Imo, “flake” conveys a more prohibitive dysfunction.

    Yeah, I guess you can take it that way. Anderson was considered ‘flakey’ when he played for the Oilers. Rumour has it that Boston thought the same thing about Seguin. It seems to me that Getzlaf dropped in the draft for that reason and there are a dozen more.

    Of course there is also a long list of those who didn’t make it because of ‘attitude’.

    I guess the point I was trying to make in my own obtuse style is that if you just play the odds you pretty much just ensure that you will be average. It is those who can identify the positive outliers who take home the biggest prizes.

    EDIT: I see Reja types faster than I do. 😉

  33. BerkhamstedOil says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I get what you are saying, but PLD remains the best comparable for what we would have expected JP to be at this point. If he was leading the Condors we would (justifiably) be happy that he is trending as an NHL player, but in D+3 would be questioning whether he is a top 6 NHL winger. – basically where he is now. I think Lehto knows what he is doing and expect he is concerned the Oilers have concluded JP is a bottom 6 player and Jesse faces an uphill battle to ever get there with this organisation. Trying to get him somewhere else makes a lot of sense. Maybe Jesse is a journeyman, but despite the apparent opportunity in Edmonton, the reality may be the decision has been made by the Oilers – including KH, who I does not appear to be trying to intervene/remediate – for now.

  34. Bag of Pucks says:

    defmn,

    Actually, ignoring the odds is what most ensures mediocrity.

    Smart organizations play the odds. Consistently favourable bets over time.

  35. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    defmn,

    Actually, ignoring the odds is what most ensures mediocrity.

    Smart organizations play the odds. Consistently favourable bets over time.

    Sure, but favorable bet is open to a lot of interpretation.

    Is avoiding the Kaliyev’s in favor of safer bets the play?

  36. Reja says:

    Trust me I don’t. Money aside it most be hard for some of these young kids under the microscope with social media ready to pounce. I definitely believe if they didn’t have a strong support staff agents lawyers friends family etc you would see a lot more kids washing out of the league that’s not hockey related.

  37. Victoria Oil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I see Jones/Persson as 6-7 in the NHL (maybe somewhere between 4 and 7 depending on a “pop” and the following:

    Lagesson/Bear
    Lowe/Bouchard
    Samorukov/Day

    I think Lowe is a good partner for the rookie Bouchard and, although I think Bear has his issues with speed and battle, he’s “earned” the 1RD spot for now.

    I look for Bouchard to excel on the 2nd pairing and, with PP1 time, to be 0.75 points per game. His goal share may be closer to 50% but his box-cars are going to shine.

    I don’t want anyone to fail at the NHL, obviously, or to get hurt, obviously, but I can’t wait until Lagesson gets his shot.

    OP or anyone else who closely follows the AHL, are there any other AHL team with anywhere close to this level of quality on their D?

    The downside that I worry about is that with a number of players being waiver eligible in the next 1 or 2 years is that we may give up some good assets for minimal or no return. See ‘Gustafsson, Erik’ and others.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie:
    Woodcraft and his staff will play a huge role in making the Oilers a long term contender.We need to count on this team to consistently be adding NHL players.Grandlund, Archibald, Chiasson are not the answer.

    I’ve got time for Granlund as a 3rd liner and Archibald as a 4th liner on a competitive team. The key is, when acquiring these veteran type role players, is short term and Holland has done exactly that.

    Over the next few years, we add the likes of Benson, Marody, Maskimov, McLeod to the lineup with end of ELC deals and cheap 2nd deals – no, not all of them make it but there will be players added behind them.

    Perhaps Maskimov slots in as a 3rd line winger October 2020 and becomes a huge right shot scorer on PP1?

    We are on the verge of something like that happening. Whether its Lagesson turning into Regher, Samorukov being the next Weber (not 1st round pick become high end), Maksimov becomes the next 30g scorer – our time is coming for something like this.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    If anyone is thinking about it, I highly recommend the AHL TV package – its was $60 (US) last year for a one team pass for the entire season. Stream was generally very good and reliable. Some arena’s had bad camera placement but the stream was good. Ryan Holt does a great job on play by play.

    Its so well worth it.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    when does rookie camp begin?

    First game is Sept 9 I think so likely a few days before – they only are playing twice.

  41. jp says:

    BerkhamstedOil:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Maybe Jesse is a journeyman, but despite the apparent opportunity in Edmonton, the reality may be the decision has been made by the Oilers – including KH, who I does not appear to be trying to intervene/remediate – for now.

    From reports, Holland has had lengthy discussions with Puljujarvi about him returning to an Oilers team with a new coach and GM. Puljujarvi was unconvinced and reiterated his wish to be traded. What more could Holland do to intervene/remediate?

    That report came from Holland himself, so I suppose one could question its validity. But my take on the situation is that Holland has been clear he would welcome Puljujarvi back. And has made real efforts to convince he to return. I’m really not sure what you’d like to see from him regarding Puljujarvi.

  42. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?

    https://theathletic.com/1151534/2019/08/24/is-riley-sheahan-an-ideal-fit-for-the-oilers-as-their-no-3-centre/

    Nice article. As I’ve said before I do think it’s very likely Sheahan or Boyle are added before camp starts.

    OP has reminded us about Tippett’s pairs. Tippett also mentioned having a checking line (I forget his exact wording) with PK guys on it. That’s clearly the Granlund/Archibald line, but they need a 3C.

    IMO Sheahan and Boyle are obvious upgrades on the current options for that role. Khaira, Marody, Gagner and Haas are all candidates, but are unproven and/or aren’t good skillset fits for the role (if Benson and JP were expected to be the 3rd line wingers I’d be more receptive to Marody winning the day for instance).

    I hope Holland decides to, and is able to, bring in Sheahan or Boyle. I really think they’d benefit the Oilers in 19-20.

  43. BerkhamstedOil says:

    jp,
    I expect KH has spoken to their camp, but to remediate get the situation appears to require some reassurances as to a top 6 role. I expect if KH had confirmed that JP is seen as being a top six RW and 15 minute per game player, JP would not be saying he is seeking to get this somewhere else. I guess my point is that Lehto has rightly confirmed that JP and his potential has been downgraded by the Oilers and is trying to get his client on a better career path.

  44. HT Joe says:

    yeraslob: Wonder which nice thing we’ll lose in the expansion draft?

    Do we know the rules of the draft yet (i.e., how many players the Oilers can protect)?

    Also, if the Seattle team signs an unrestricted free agent RNH or Larsson, would that count as the Oiler pick, or could the Oilers lose both RNH, Larsson, and a pick to Seattle?

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex: Because Peter Chiarelli!!

    Yes but, also, this one is firmly on his agent with material culpability as well and it seems to have started prior to Jesse even signing. There was a clear informal deal in place to keep him on the NHL roster for 40 games his first season in order to burn a year towards UFA status.

    There is no reasonable way to think that wasn’t the case – as a 180 to Drai, who was sent back to junior on the even of the 40th game, Jesse was sent right after, after having played nominal minutes in the games before.

    Also, playing 10 NHL games as an 18 year old is the reason he’s lost his waiver status – it took two years off the threshold.

    His agent has clearly done everything he can to have Jesse lose the waiver status and to get to UFA status as early as possible.

    Jesse’s trade value would be MUCH higher right now if he was exempt from waivers.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?

    https://theathletic.com/1151534/2019/08/24/is-riley-sheahan-an-ideal-fit-for-the-oilers-as-their-no-3-centre/

    Given shy offence, I think he’s an ideal fit for 4C.

    COME ON COOPER – MAKE US PROUD!

  47. yeraslob says:

    ArmchairGM,

    From what I gather, mostly from posters here, Leggasson is projecting to be a better Larsson. And Larsson is our 1RD. Losing Leggasson doesn’t sound all that good.

  48. BerkhamstedOil says:

    this rush to FA status aligns with the trend we are seeing with the post Draisaitl young star signings. Two big pay checks (with the second tracking the market) versus one longer term deal that may end up being a ‘value contract’ sooner rather than later. Much to all of our/their chagrin, Jesse couldn’t do what Patrik did.

  49. yeraslob says:

    HT Joe,

    I assumed it was the same rules as the Vegas expansion – a team can protect 7-3-1, or 4-4-1
    As for Seattle signing UFA’s, someone else will have to clarify those rules. IMO, Seattle would hold an unfair advantage if they were able to sign UFA’s, essentially starting at zero cap hit.

  50. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Given shy offence, I think he’s an ideal fit for 4C.

    COME ON COOPER – MAKE US PROUD!

    I agree with this.

    My post above talks of Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald as the “3rd” line, but in an ideal scenario the 3rd and 4th lines are relatively equal contributors (minutes) with slightly different roles. The lines could look like:

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Neal-Nuge-Gagner
    Benson-Marody-Chiasson (or Nygard/Khaira at LW here).
    Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald

    There’s lots of different ways it could play out, but if Marody and/or Benson push through it should be a great sign for the team overall.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    HTJoe: Do we know the rules of the draft yet (i.e., how many players the Oilers can protect)?

    Also, if the Seattle team signs an unrestricted free agent RNH or Larsson, would that count as the Oiler pick, or could the Oilers lose both RNH, Larsson, and a pick to Seattle?

    Yes, the rules have been know to be the same as the Vegas draft.

    Yes, if they sign Larsson or Nuge as up coming UFAs, that counts as their pick.

  52. jp says:

    BerkhamstedOil:
    jp,I expect KH has spoken to their camp, but to remediate get the situation appears to require some reassurances as to a top 6 role. I expect if KH had confirmed that JP is seen as being a top six RW and 15 minute per game player, JP would not be saying he is seeking to get this somewhere else. I guess my point is that Lehto has rightly confirmed that JP and his potential has been downgraded by the Oilers and is trying to get his client on a better career path.

    OK, if that’s what you’re talking about for remediation then I’m sure you’re right Holland hasn’t offered it (and I’m glad he has not).

    FWIW the original translation of Puljujarvi’s interview seems to have been misleading. He likely said something to the effect “I hope to go to a team where I’ll play 15 min a night in the top 6. If I get that chance I’ll be able to show what I can do”, rather than “you need to trade me to a team that will play me top 6, 15 min a night”.

    My take from what’s transpired and what various sources have said is that Puljujarvi has issues with some of the players that remain in the Oilers dressing room. So no matter of a new coach and GM he wants a fresh start elsewhere.

    Unfortunately we simply can’t know where Puljujarvi and Lehto’s heads are for sure. It’s possible that Lehto is acting as he has for the reasons you suggest.

  53. Reja says:

    jp: I agree with this.

    My post above talks of Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald as the “3rd” line, but in an ideal scenario the 3rd and 4th lines are relatively equal contributors (minutes) with slightly different roles. The lines could look like:

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Neal-Nuge-Gagner
    Benson-Marody-Chiasson (or Nygard/Khaira at LW here).
    Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald

    There’s lots of different ways it could play out, but if Marody and/or Benson push through it should be a great sign for the team overall.

    Quick when’s the last time we had a Checking Line Jarret Stoll days? I can Guarantee you Tippett and Holland will have one.I still think JP plus for a 3C centre that can play 2C in a pitch, PK and win face offs from both sides when it counts.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    yeraslob:
    HT Joe,

    I assumed it was the same rules as the Vegas expansion – a team can protect 7-3-1, or 4-4-1
    As for Seattle signing UFA’s,someone else will have to clarify those rules.IMO, Seattle would hold an unfair advantage if they were able to sign UFA’s, essentially starting at zero cap hit.

    If the Oilers left impending UFAs Nuge or Larsson exposed, Seattle could pick them and sign them.

    They did that With Deryk Engelland. I believe a window was opened prior to the draft to allow Vegas to speak with impending free agents and Seattle will be given the same opportunity.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    yeraslob:
    ArmchairGM,

    From what I gather, mostly from posters here, Leggasson is projecting to be a better Larsson.And Larsson is our 1RD.Losing Leggasson doesn’t sound all that good.

    I wouldn’t say he’s projecting to be a “better” Larsson, but rather a Larsson, Hjarlmasson, Tanev type, which is valuable.

    His skating is good to above average which means he *could* be better than Larsson, but I’d hesitate to say he’s projecting to be that.

  56. jp says:

    Reja: Quick when’s the last time we had a Checking LineJarret Stoll days? I can Guarantee you Tippettand Holland will have one.I still think JP plus for a 3C centre that can play 2C in a pitch, PK and win face offs from both sides when it counts.

    Could well be, but I worry how we pay that player. Money is real tight at this point.

    The player you’re describing may be attainable for Puljujarvi, but is very unlikely to be paid $1.5M or less.

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    jp: Sure, but favorable bet is open to a lot of interpretation.

    Is avoiding the Kaliyev’s in favor of safer bets the play?

    Kaliyev is a bet primarily made on quantitative data. Players like Yakupov and Puljujarvi were not vetted sufficiently on the qualitative side imo. This is an area the Oilers need to strengthen. Leading edge analytics looks at both sides of the coin.

  58. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its not very often that I am on board with a “real prospect” spending an over-age season in junior but I really would like to see Safin back in Halifax – even moreso with Lavoie now an Oiler.

    Don’t see it happening as, given he is both an import and an over-ager, I don’t think the Moosehead will have room for him.

    Hopefully he stays healthy and can work his way up the Condors’ depth chart.

    I can’t see a junior team bringing back an European as an overager. You blow two spots with one player. You are limited in Europeans and you are limited in overagers. You put yourself at an disadvantage when a player is an overager and a European at the same time.

    ————————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  59. HT Joe says:

    yeraslob,

    OriginalPouzar,

    Thank you both!!

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot: I can’t see a junior team bringing back an European as an overager.You blow two spots with one player.You are limited in Europeans and you are limited in overagers.You put yourself at an disadvantage when a player is an overager and a European at the same time.

    ————————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    Yes, I know, hence why I posted:

    Don’t see it happening as, given he is both an import and an over-ager, I don’t think the Moosehead will have room for him.

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    yeraslob:
    ArmchairGM,

    From what I gather, mostly from posters here, Leggasson is projecting to be a better Larsson.And Larsson is our 1RD.Losing Leggasson doesn’t sound all that good.

    If he’s that good he’ll be protected. They’ll protect Klefbom, Nurse and one other defenseman- at this point it’s between Jones Lagesson and Bear. We have 2 seasons to figure out which one is worth protecting, I’m not worried about it in the least.

  62. jp says:

    Bag of Pucks: Kaliyev is a bet primarily made on quantitative data. Players like Yakupov and Puljujarvi were not vetted sufficiently on the qualitative side imo. This is an area the Oilers need to strengthen. Leading edge analytics looks at both sides of the coin.

    I agree with this.

    But I felt that ” Smart organizations play the odds. Consistently favourable bets over time.” was sufficiently vague as to not be helpful, especially as reply to “It is those who can identify the positive outliers who take home the biggest prizes.” I see those as the essentially the same thing and felt your comment implied “safe” bets, which IMO is not the way to find impact players (at least deeper in a draft).

    Anyway, zero disagreement with your most recent statement.

  63. ArmchairGM says:

    yeraslob:
    HT Joe,

    I assumed it was the same rules as the Vegas expansion – a team can protect 7-3-1, or 4-4-1
    As for Seattle signing UFA’s,someone else will have to clarify those rules.IMO, Seattle would hold an unfair advantage if they were able to sign UFA’s, essentially starting at zero cap hit.

    They can select a pending UFA like Nugent-Hopkins, it counts as their Edmonton pick and all it gives them is a short window to negotiate prior to July 1st. They don’t really have a lot more cap space than say Ottawa does, because draft rules ensure that they take on a certain amount of cap. After July 1st they play by the same rules as everyone else.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think they are allowed to pre-negotiate, aren’t they?

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can you guys believe that hockey is just around the corner, Oilers hockey????

    How exciting!!!!!

  66. Lowetide says:

    Patrick Maroon to the Lightning, one year deal for $900,000. Nice.

  67. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    defmn,

    Actually, ignoring the odds is what most ensures mediocrity.

    Smart organizations play the odds. Consistently favourable bets over time.

    Disagree. Playing the odds is the safe path.

    Excellence demands the courage to forge your own.

    Making poor decisions leads to failure.

    Making the safe decision (playing the odds) leads to the middle.

    Which is where you meet the most people. 😉

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    defmn: Disagree. Playing the odds is the safe path.

    Excellence demands the courage to forge your own.

    Making poor decisions leads to failure.

    Making the safe decision (playing the odds) leads to the middle.

    Which is where you meet the most people.

    And yet McDavid was the odds friendly safe pick.

  69. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: First game is Sept 9 I think so likely a few days before – they only are playing twice.

    I was looking earlier today since we just moved back to Alberta. And, yes, I did feel dirty having to go to the Flames website to find the answer.

    The team will play two rookie camp games, which functionally replace the old Young Stars Classic tournament:

    Sat., Sept. 7 against the Edmonton Oilers in Red Deer
    Tues., Sept. 10 at home against the Oilers

    https://flamesnation.ca/2019/06/18/flames-announce-rookie-games-and-pre-season-schedule/

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Maroon to Tampa – 1 year, $900K.

  71. Reja says:

    Lowetide:
    Patrick Maroon to the Lightning, one year deal for $900,000. Nice.

    The Bolts getting cheap muscle with hands for the playoffs. I believe they could more or less care how Paddy does in the regular season as long as he’s healthy rested and in form for the gruelling Playoff run.

  72. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks: And yet McDavid was the odds friendly safe pick.

    If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

    Exceptionalism is never a story of playing the odds because too many people know how to calculate them. It doesn’t mean you do stupid or erratic things but it does mean that sometimes you take a Broberg with a Zegras still on the board because something that you cannot calculate or articulate makes you do so.

    If you are wrong the criticism is that you should have played the odds. If you are right you jump ahead of your competition. Taking Puljujarvi was playing the odds, for example but Columbus took Dubois to much criticism. Chiarelli takes a lot of crap (rightly) here but taking Puljujarvi is generally not part of that criticism because he played the odds even though time tells us that it wasn’t a good decision. Same with Yakupov.

    So all I am saying is that playing the odds is not a recipe for success so much as it is a description of taking the safe path. The safe path keeps you from making big mistakes but it isn’t the way to separate from the crowd.

  73. Lowetide says:

    It’s safe to assume things will be shaking by September 4-5, that’s plenty of time to get some lines and pairings set for the rookie games. They’ll probably riff off last year’s chem.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Reja: The Bolts getting cheap muscle with hands for the playoffs. I believe they could more or less care how Paddy does in the regular season as long as he’s healthy rested and in form for the gruelling Playoff run.

    Interesting decision by Maroon, he could win back to back rings!

  75. Reja says:

    jp: Could well be, but I worry how we pay that player. Money is real tight at this point.

    The player you’re describing may be attainable for Puljujarvi, but is very unlikely to be paid $1.5M or less.

    The plus could be a roster player or the asset could entice a GM to part with a young cost controlled Centre. Who do you think Holland is trying to get for JP?

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, the rules have been know to be the same as the Vegas draft.

    Yes, if they sign Larsson or Nuge as up coming UFAs, that counts as their pick.

    If they select Nuge and he refuses to sign with them, that still counts as their pick. Hmm…

  77. defmn says:

    Lowetide:
    It’s safe to assume things will be shaking by September 4-5, that’s plenty of time to get some lines and pairings set for the rookie games. They’ll probably riff off last year’s chem.

    For those interested in attending the rookie games tickets go on sale through the Flames box office on August 30th. I couldn’t find anything on the Oilers site.

  78. Reja says:

    Lowetide: Interesting decision by Maroon, he could win back to back rings!

    Just like Schultz that made me think how many ex-Oilers have rings with different teams. I betcha it’s more than I’m guessing to myself right now.

  79. rickithebear says:

    OP:
    You are learning.

    12 years of off WOWY pairs.
    Someone has to learn.

    All summer

    Drai (23) (1483 min) – Mcd (22) (1465) – xxx
    Neal (31) (1040) – RNH (26) (1265) – xxx
    Granlund (26) (915) – xxx – Archibald (26) (913)

    That is 6 forwards

    Would love to see Draisaitl get 1000 min of Mcd
    And
    50% of 3C (495 min)

    Recently have come to the desired push of.
    Drai – Mcd – xxx 1000 min; 1000/1465 = 68.3%
    Neal – RNH – xxx 765 min; 765/1265 = 60.4%
    Granlund – xxx – Archibald 550 min; 550/915 = 60.1%
    xxx- Drai – xxx 495 min; 495/990; 50.0% of 3C

    Who shares the other ((1465 x2) – 1000) 1930 of non Draisaitl Mcd time
    Who shares the other ((1265 x 2) -765) 1765 min Non Neal RNH time
    Who gets the other (990 -495) (495) 3C minutes

    I have followed as much of GM/coach comments as I can this year.
    The granlund – Archibald pair makes me smile.

    Do not forget the DZ speacialists signed.
    Khaira LW (25) (765 min); Top 40 pk fwd; 17-18 10 evg, .80 evg/60;
    Brodziak C (35) (737 min); .59 evg/60 last 3 ssn
    Cave C (24)

    Like you beyond the 3 pairs and DZ players.
    Their are to many veteran NHL/AHL and Euro league options.

    That is 9 fwds

    Potential 3C
    Haas C (27) likely high C,W DZ minutes; 11g 27P NHLE
    Gagner W,C (30) EDM 18-19 .95 evg/60; 14-15 to 17-18 (929 min);

    That is 11 fwds

    Wingers with top 62: evg, evg/60, Evg NHLE
    Jurco (26) CHI 17-18 1.02 evg/60
    Kassian (28) EDM 18-19 #37 RW 14 evg; .79 evg/60; (1062 min)
    Chiasson(28)EDM 18-19 #43 RW 13 evg; .78 evg/60; (1003 min); #42 8 ppg fwd
    Nygard (26) 18-19 #2 goal scorer SHL, 16 evg NHLE in SHL per dobbler 82gm NHLE

    That is 15 fwds.

    2 forward prospects with top 62 evg NHLE in AHL last year.
    Per dobbler NHLE calculator
    Gambardella (25) 18 evg 29 Evp
    Currie (26) 15 evg 23 Evp

    That is 17 fwds

  80. Professor Q says:

    defmn,

    Musk does work for the government, in a way (although I suppose it could have been the Canadian Government instead of the U.S.A. Government?).

  81. rickithebear says:

    Under u23 prospects
    AHL forwards
    Maroody (22) 10 evg 23 Evp
    Benson (21) 7 evg 18 Evp
    Yamamotto (20) 6 evg 17 Evp

    3 AHL forwards below Holland’s desired debut age
    That is 20 fwds

    These three are not even close to the evg, PP, PK skill of the above 17 forwards.
    But hey maybe they shine in camp.
    Didn’t Holland/Tippett say you need to know what you have before pre season games.

    CHL forwards
    Using dobblers NHLe calc
    And adjusting for
    Draft -1 age were 150 to 333% higher NHLe is translated.
    draft age were 67%. To 150% higher NHLe is translated
    Draft +1 were 20 to 67% higher NHLe is translated
    Draft + 2 were 16.7% to 17% NHLE is translated.
    18 yr draft season is when the draft should be less chance for mistake.

    Maksimov(20)
    Draft NHLE 5 evg 10 evp
    Translated for age 11 evg 23 Evp
    Draft +1 NHLE 8 evg 20 Evp
    Translated for age 13 evg 31 Evp
    Draft +2 NHLE 10 evg 21 Evp
    Translated for age 13 evg 27 evp

    Maksimov looks like a 13 evg 30 Evp player.

    Lavoie (18)
    (Draft -1) 8 evg 15 Evp x (.754/.3);
    Translated forbage 20 evg 38 evp
    (draft reg ssn ) 8 evg 18 Evp x (.504/.3);
    Translated firbage 13.5 evg 30 Evp
    ( draft playoff minus 5 en) 10 evg 15 EVP;
    Translated for age 17 evg 25 evp

    Lavoie so far suggests 17 evg 30-32 evp fwd

    Mcleod (19)
    ( draft) NHLE 6 evg 13 Evp
    Translated for age 10 evg 22 Evp
    Draft +1 NHLE 4 evg/ 16 Evp
    Translated for age 5 evg/ 21 evp

    Mcleod looks like a 21-22 Evp fwd
    But anyone’s guess when it comes to evg.

    That is 23 fwd deep.

  82. McNuge93 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Can you guys believe that hockey is just around the corner, Oilers hockey????

    How exciting!!!!!

    Isn’t “Oilers hockey” and “exciting” an oxymoron?

  83. rickithebear says:

    Playing the odds:

    Hmm!

    7 of every 8 final 4 team is a top GA team.

    Top Cup caliber GA teams.
    – 1. Have a top 3-2-1 open HD sh def system coach that maintains high % of 3-2-1 HD area def.
    – 2. Have depth at top Dmen who reduce the HD shot density the goalie faces.
    – 3. Have depth at top Dmen who make the highest % corsi faced by goalie non scoreable
    – 4. Have top Open HD sh save% goalie/s

    No top coach 3-2-1 system.
    No strong GA

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can you please put together the four lines for the game October 2 that reflect your numbers?

  85. jp says:

    Reja: The plus could be a roster player or the asset could entice a GM to part with a young cost controlled Centre. Who do you think Holland is trying to get for JP?

    Such a trade could happen but the lack of cap space makes it more difficult to find a fit.

    There would have been more options earlier in the summer, but at this stage the most likely is another young, high pedigree under-performer.

  86. rickithebear says:

    When you look at the top 420 viable ev minute fwds

    270-290 of them have 50+% Off FO zone start.
    That is the top 9.

    Meaning most bottom lines are eating high portion of DZ FO zone start variance.

    Is 2 bottom lines having a negative % Off FO zone start a good idea?

  87. jp says:

    Lowetide: Interesting decision by Maroon, he could win back to back rings!

    Maybe it was the only offer he got again this summer?

  88. defmn says:

    Professor Q:
    defmn,

    Musk does work for the government, in a way (although I suppose it could have been the Canadian Government instead of the U.S.A. Government?).

    Hehe. With the completion of his new production facility just outside of Shanghai I suppose you could say he works for the Chinese government these days. 😉

  89. Scungilli Slushy says:

    McNuge93: Isn’t “Oilers hockey” and “exciting” an oxymoron?

    McDavid says Oiler hockey is not boring, they just don’t win enough.

  90. defmn says:

    jp: Maybe it was the only offer he got again this summer?

    I was thinking the same thing. I’m surprised we haven’t heard of more PTO’s around the league this close to TC.

  91. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: If they select Nuge and he refuses to sign with them, that still counts as their pick. Hmm…

    I think, but am not certain, it’s the other way around.

    If they sign him, that’s their pick.

  92. Scungilli Slushy says:

    defmn: I was thinking the same thing. I’m surprised we haven’t heard of more PTO’s around the league this close to TC.

    Probably not a lot of options, but good on the big guy for finding another sweet spot. I’m particularly fond of him as a former Oiler because of his big heart and humble nature.

    I didn’t want him back though. The Oilers don’t need meat, and don’t need replacement level aging players. They need to play what they have which is pretty decent there days.

    If they can sign a solid still contributing player sure, a lot of dudes talked about as PTOs or UFAs aren’t going to help things more than the top farm forwards overall IMO, perhaps less.

  93. defmn says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think, but am not certain, it’s the other way around.

    If they sign him, that’s their pick.

    Going by memory which isn’t what it used to be but it seems to me that Vegas was given permission to talk to any UFA they wanted for about a week before making their picks so they would know if the player was willing to sign.

  94. defmn says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Probably not a lot of options, but good on the big guy for finding another sweet spot. I’m particularly fond of him as a former Oiler because of his big heart and humble nature.

    I didn’t want him back though. The Oilers don’t need meat, and don’t need replacement level aging players. They need to play what they have which is pretty decent there days.

    If they can sign a solid still contributing player sure, a lot of dudes talked about as PTOs or UFAs aren’t going to help things more than the top farm forwards overall IMO, perhaps less.

    Totally agree. It is time to build rather than keep trying to patch. Actually it is several years late in deciding to build but that is a different narrative than this one. Draft and develop. I know it is hard to execute but this team can’t even memorize the instructions.

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy: I think, but am not certain, it’s the other way around.

    If they sign him, that’s their pick.

    I don’t think so – expansion draft is before July 1.

    I believe they get a window to talk to the pending UFAs prior to the expansion draft.

    Engelland was picked by Vegas and then signed right away if I remember correctly.

  96. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: Not sure about that. A team, by definition, requires a diversity of talents and personalities as long as they are united by the stated goal of winning hockey games. The joker in the locker room serves a function just as the tough guy does on the ice.

    A team can be united by many things with winning at best number three! Common enemy, to prove someone or everybody wrong number two. It has to have a commonality and buy in whatever it is. For example Vegas used the nobody wants you/prove everyone wrong. The easier emotions to feed always work better.

  97. Bag of Pucks says:

    defmn: If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

    Exceptionalism is never a story of playing the odds because too many people know how to calculate them. It doesn’t mean you do stupid or erratic things but it does mean that sometimes you take a Broberg with a Zegras still on the board because something that you cannot calculate or articulate makes you do so.

    If you are wrong the criticism is that you should have played the odds. If you are right you jump ahead of your competition. Taking Puljujarvi was playing the odds, for example but Columbus took Dubois to much criticism. Chiarelli takes a lot of crap (rightly) here but taking Puljujarvi is generally not part of that criticism because he played the odds even though time tells us that it wasn’t a good decision. Same with Yakupov.

    So all I am saying is that playing the odds is not a recipe for success so much as it is a description of taking the safe path. The safe path keeps you from making big mistakes but it isn’t the way to separate from the crowd.

    I’ve long been a critic of draft philosophy predicated on the groupthink that dominates consensus ranking bpa philosophy. Drafting Yakupov or Puljujarvi and then insisting those picks weren’t mistakes because that’s what the herd decided is the kind of safe/misguided management I’m against as well. As I’ve said many times here, conventional wisdom breeds conventional results. Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

    But that’s not what I mean by playing the odds. What I mean by that is gathering all the intel you can to create competitive advantage and then leveraging those insights consistently and prudently to win at moneypuck. It’s stacking the odds in your favour not chasing outliers based on your gut. I think Broberg may prove to be a good example of this competitive edge approach.

    McDavid was the safest AND smartest pick, because on rare occasions, the conventional wisdom and smart money odds align. That’s not contrarian thinking, but being contrarian only is as ineffective as the safe approach.

  98. defmn says:

    pts2pndr: A team can be united by many things with winning at best number three! Common enemy, to prove someone or everybody wrong number two. It has to have a commonality and buy in whatever it is. For example Vegas used the nobody wants you/prove everyone wrong. The easier emotions to feed always work better.

    OK but the point I was trying to make is that diversity of talent, personality is important to the concept of team. I think the biggest mistake I made in my younger years was hiring guys because I thought they were like me. Only after making that mistake a few times did I figure out that the company didn’t need more of me but the parts I wasn’t that good at.

    And you are right that a common enemy or hurt feelings can motivate strongly but I think those are more short term no?

  99. pts2pndr says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’ve long been a critic of draft philosophy predicated on the groupthink that dominates consensus ranking bpa philosophy. Drafting Yakupov or Puljujarvi and then insisting those picks weren’t mistakes because that’s what the herd decided is the kind of safe/misguided management I’m against as well. As I’ve said many times here, conventional wisdom breeds conventional results. Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

    But that’s not what I mean by playing the odds. What I mean by that is gathering all the intel you can to create competitive advantage and then leveraging those insights consistently and prudently to win at moneypuck. It’s stacking the odds in your favour not chasing outliers based on your gut. I think Broberg may prove to be a good example of this competitive edge approach.

    McDavid was the safest AND smartest pick, because on rare occasions, the conventional wisdom and smart money odds align. That’s not contrarian thinking, but being contrarian only is as ineffective as the safe approach.

    While I agree with you to a certain extent it is common knowledge that for the top echelon picks ie 1 through 5 consensus is more often than not the correct way to proceed. Into the latter part of the first round and later your theory has much more validity in my opinion.

  100. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Unicorns Ver.1.113

    Nygard-McD-Kass
    JJ-Drai-Neal
    Benson-Nuge-Chia
    Granlund-Haas-Archibald
    Gag

    Nurse-Lars
    Klef-Ben
    Rus-Jones
    Pers

  101. pts2pndr says:

    McNuge93: Isn’t “Oilers hockey” and “exciting” an oxymoron?

    If you don’t find watching McDavid and Draisaitl you need to find a new spot to watch!

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I think, but am not certain, it’s the other way around.

    If they sign him, that’s their pick.

    They can’t sign him without selecting him in the expansion draft first. The draft happens before July 1st.

  103. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’ve long been a critic of draft philosophy predicated on the groupthink that dominates consensus ranking bpa philosophy. Drafting Yakupov or Puljujarvi and then insisting those picks weren’t mistakes because that’s what the herd decided is the kind of safe/misguided management I’m against as well. As I’ve said many times here, conventional wisdom breeds conventional results. Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

    But that’s not what I mean by playing the odds. What I mean by that is gathering all the intel you can to create competitive advantage and then leveraging those insights consistently and prudently to win at moneypuck. It’s stacking the odds in your favour not chasing outliers based on your gut. I think Broberg may prove to be a good example of this competitive edge approach.

    McDavid was the safest AND smartest pick, because on rare occasions, the conventional wisdom and smart money odds align. That’s not contrarian thinking, but being contrarian only is as ineffective as the safe approach.

    I am also a huge proponent of gathering any information from anywhere you can get it. I am a dinosaur of the acrimonious and nasty fighting between the stats guys and the watch the games crowds dating back to the days when posting on HFBoards was all there was.

    I never understood the anger on either side other than that generated by the rudeness that often punctuated the positions from both sides. Why anybody would want fewer inputs into a decision making process just makes no sense to me.

    So I agree with you completely that qualitative analysis is important along with the numbers, along with the often badly articulated decision that comes from pulling a hundred different threads together woven by perception.

    Sometimes the numbers tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Sometimes they don’t.

  104. pts2pndr says:

    defmn: OK but the point I was trying to make is that diversity of talent, personality is important to the concept of team. I think the biggest mistake I made in my younger years was hiring guys because I thought they were like me. Only after making that mistake a few times did I figure out that the company didn’t need more of me but the parts I wasn’t that good at.

    And you are right that a common enemy or hurt feelings can motivate strongly but I think those are more short term no?
    What i have found that once you have success the bond is the success and common feeling within the team. This can be carried for an extended time. Your theory on many parts to make a whole and or team is valid.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    We all enjoyed the New York Islanders Dallas Stars final

  106. Munny says:

    defmn: If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

    Don’t know why I am picking on this post because I enjoy DEF’s contributions, but here goes…

    Steve Jobs felt he was playing the odds. Marketing people agree. Ad so did the buying public.

    Musk does work for governments (global warming)… and is probably the most likely of the new billionaires to be bankrupt in 10 years. If not sooner.

    The smart bettors on presidential races made a killing on the last election. The data pointed to Trump all the way, if one understands how polling has changed… and that there’s a big difference between data and the reporting thereof.

  107. Munny says:

    Bag of Pucks: Where I think many orgs are missing the boat on consensus rankings is the lack of priority on qualititative analysis including behavioral data.

    I think a serious and compelling case could be made that teams rely too much on qualitative data and not enough on quantitative when it comes to the draft.

    The draft guru who relies the most on quantitative data (and publishes) is LT, by far and away. He’s the guy that would take a Barzal, or a Debrincat, or a Yamamoto… because of the numbers. And his lists differ greatly from Bobby’s scout-polled list, or team preferences revealed by the draft. Which leads one to believe qualitative is playing a big role.

    But even he will tell you that quantitative doesn’t always win or rather predict correctly.

    The trick is knowing when the one side of the story will win over the other side (quant vs qual)… and in the realm of predicting yutes, that is a very very difficult trick.

  108. defmn says:

    Munny:

    Musk is probably the most likely of the new billionaires to be bankrupt in 10 years. If not sooner.

    The smart bettors on presidential races made a killing on the last election.The data pointed to Trump, if one understands how polling has changed…and that there’s a big difference between data and the reporting thereof.

    I agree with these parts. 😉

  109. Munny says:

    defmn,

    Lol, fair enough!

    (I will likely go to my grave thinking that about Jobs though)

  110. Munny says:

    defmn,

    I think the philosophy of betting on the home run over the center of the Bell curve has a lot to be said for it. Depending on the circumstances, of course.

    …Just to clarify my own position. 😉

  111. Munny says:

    Those who know my posting history as spOILer and Munny, know I’m a movie nut.

    Trying to decide what to watch… here are the movie options thus far tonight:

    South Korean movie “Burning” (looks like a complete mind-fuck going by the first 10 mins).

    Aronofsky’s movie “Mother” (haven’t liked one of his yet, and despite one nice cinematic move in the first 10 minutes, looks weak). Netflix is telling me I should watch it.

    “The Girl With all the Gifts” (not a zombie fan at all, but looks like an interesting take on the genre after 10).

    “Burning” looks like the best choice but not sure if I want to read a movie after a long day. Last foreign film I watched was the Millennium trilogy, which was okay acting and story, but piss-poor cinema/visuals. This Burning is probably better… but, reading.

    Any recommendations for a flick out there?

  112. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM: They can’t sign him without selecting him in the expansion draft first. The draft happens before July 1st.

    Ok

  113. defmn says:

    Munny:
    defmn,

    I think the philosophy of betting on the home run over the center of the Bell curve has a lot to be said for it.Depending on the circumstances, of course.

    …Just to clarify my own position.

    Yeah. I think Lowetide advocates a similar strategy when he talks about drafting for skill in later rounds rather than going for the fourth line guy even when there is a noticeable shortcoming in other areas.

    There are, as you say, circumstances to be considered. You have to be able to afford to strike out if you are taking the home run swing.

  114. yeraslob says:

    Munny,

    In Time. Starring Justin Timberlake

  115. Munny says:

    yeraslob:
    Munny,

    In Time.Starring Justin Timberlake

    Thought it was largely panned? I like Timberlake, though. Googles… Huh. Sci-fi, Logan’s Run story, Gattaca director (which suffered from awful art direction)… might be something I’m in the mood for if its on Netflix.

    Why did you like it?

  116. Professor Q says:

    Munny,

    mother! is a difficult watch. Some praise its artistry but I found it lacking on a lot of fronts, and some gratuity that seemed random. Drags on, a bit pompous, and doesn’t really show the “intended” Mother Nature – Bible Story – Human History and Future parable it thinks it does.

    I’m watching Hell’s Kitchen with some Into The Badlands and The Last Kingdom (and reading some The Way Of Kings).

    I think the most recent movies I’ve watched are Don’t Worry, He Won’t Get Far On Foot; and Arctic.

  117. Munny says:

    Nope Netflix fails again. Don’t got it.

  118. yeraslob says:

    Munny,

    I liked the concept of time is money or, in this case, life.

  119. Munny says:

    Professor Q: mother! is a difficult watch. Some praise its artistry but I found it lacking on a lot of fronts, and some gratuity that seemed random. Drags on, a bit pompous, and doesn’t really show the “intended” Mother Nature – Bible Story – Human History and Future parable it thinks it does.

    Thank you for the heads up.

    I don’t find anything “difficult” to watch, unless we are talking about low level comedy, lol. In fact I appreciate being made uncomfortable by a film. But I haven’t found Aronofsky to be artistic in the past; rather pretentious and pompous, as you say, Otherwise that would be my choice, because .I usually love artistic movies.

    I’ll watch it eventually, solely because it is a “horror” and an Aronofsky, but I’m expecting to be disappointed (which typically helps a movie, lol).

  120. Munny says:

    yeraslob,

    Yeah the premise looks awesome, and tailor-made for movie (ticking clock). Stupid Netflix.

  121. yeraslob says:

    Munny,

    I must’ve watched it when Unblock Us could be used with Netflix.

  122. Victoria Oil says:

    defmn: If playing the odds was always the correct answer there would be no Steve Jobs story. Elon Musk would work for the government and Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have cost those who bet on presidential races a fortune.

    Exceptionalism is never a story of playing the odds because too many people know how to calculate them. It doesn’t mean you do stupid or erratic things but it does mean that sometimes you take a Broberg with a Zegras still on the board because something that you cannot calculate or articulate makes you do so.

    If you are wrong the criticism is that you should have played the odds. If you are right you jump ahead of your competition. Taking Puljujarvi was playing the odds, for example but Columbus took Dubois to much criticism. Chiarelli takes a lot of crap (rightly) here but taking Puljujarvi is generally not part of that criticism because he played the odds even though time tells us that it wasn’t a good decision. Same with Yakupov.

    So all I am saying is that playing the odds is not a recipe for success so much as it is a description of taking the safe path. The safe path keeps you from making big mistakes but it isn’t the way to separate from the crowd.

    Well said. It takes courage to be a contrarian.

    That said, I don’t think PLD should have been considered a contrarian pick as he had a better NHLE than Puljujarvi (who just had a hot WJC playing with Laine).

  123. Munny says:

    Professor Q: I’m watching Hell’s Kitchen with some Into The Badlands and The Last Kingdom (and reading some The Way Of Kings).

    I avoid TV fiction. Like the plague. I just plowed through Mindhunter this week, because Fincher, and despite some good bits (the serial killer dialogs), am sorry I largely wasted my time.

  124. yeraslob says:

    Munny,

    How about Upside Down? I think Kisten Dunst is in that one.

  125. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    The Last Kingdom is an excellent series. I enjoyed Vikings more, but TLK is worthwhile; like a British version of the same series.

  126. Reja says:

    Munny:
    Those who know my posting history as spOILer and Munny, know I’m a movie nut.

    Trying to decide what to watch… here are the movie options thus far tonight:

    South Korean movie “Burning” (looks like a complete mind-fuck going by the first 10 mins).

    Aronofsky’s movie “Mother” (haven’t liked one of his yet, and despite one nice cinematic move in the first 10 minutes, looks weak). Netflix is telling me I should watch it.

    “The Girl With all the Gifts” (not a zombie fan at all, but looks like an interesting take on the genre after 10).

    “Burning” looks like the best choice but not sure if I want to read a movie after a long day. Last foreign film I watched was the Millennium trilogy, which was okay acting and story, but piss-poor cinema/visuals.This Burning is probably better… but, reading.

    Any recommendations for a flick out there?

    Das Boot for a subtitle movie it’s like shawshank Redemption gets better every time you watch it.Too Late with John Hawkes and Robert Forester both damn fine actors you’ll enjoy this movie if you haven’t seen it.

  127. Munny says:

    yeraslob:
    Munny,

    How about Upside Down?I think Kisten Dunst is in that one.

    I’ve seen it. Very good visuals. Story needs work.
    ______

    Yeraslob got me thinking scifi so I just tried 10 minutes of Solo: A Star Wars Story… oh dear Gord this looks bad. How can a studio make home runs like Moana and then shit the bed like the last three Star Wars movies?

  128. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Interesting to read a bit about Bear’s off season training with some teammates local to Edmonton. Wonder how his work on fast twitch fibres helps his first step and pick retrievals. Benson too.

    Source: https://www.nhl.com/news/roster-reboot-ethan-bear/c-308591838

    Bear moved in with former Condors forward and Albertan Evan Polei in June and has been working out with local Oilers players and prospects such as Kris Russell, Matt Benning and Tyler Benson since.

    “We use weights, we do fast-twitch, a lot of track stuff and a lot of mobility,” Bear, detailing the group’s exercises, said. “If it’s a Monday or Tuesday, we’ll go on the ice after. Thursdays and Fridays, as well, for an hour. We do skating stuff and edge work. Then we do shooting stuff and a lot of hands and other skills.

    “We kind of hit it all here and I’m just trying to take advantage of that.”

  129. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    Get woke…. Go broke.

  130. Victoria Oil says:

    jp: Maybe it was the only offer he got again this summer?

    I remember early in 2017-18, some people were suggesting a 3 x $3mln extension for Maroon.

  131. Munny says:

    Reja,

    I’ve seen it about a dozen times, including in the theatre on release. Peterson hasn’t lived up to the promise of his directing in that debut since, but that is one helluva debut. Maybe the best portrayal of a claustrophobic environment on film.

    But I’m avoiding subtitles lol otherwise I’d be watching Burning… which looks pretty freaking awesome.

    In the first 10 minutes we have a fantasy dancing chick hot as fuck who hits on a writer (!), telling him he used to know her (right) and who then pantomimes eating imaginary tangerines on a subsequent date. If that’s not a mind fuck, I don’t know what is.

    That’s a lot of narrative promise in 10 minutes. I will be watching that one very soon.

    (*whispers* btw, and this won’t be popular, I think Shawshank is the most over-rated movie of all time)

  132. Reja says:

    Victoria Oil: Well said. It takes courage to be a contrarian.

    That said, I don’t think PLD should have been considered a contrarian pick as he had a better NHLE than Puljujarvi (who just had a hot WJC playing with Laine).

    The world junior tournament can really mess with a GM’s head. If a player of interest goes on a heater he’s moving on up to the east side with a deluxe apartment in the sky.

  133. yeraslob says:

    Munny,

    Yeah the ending could’ve been better, it seemed hurried.

    Agree with the Star Wars take, lol. Guess you gotta be a fan

  134. Victoria Oil says:

    Munny,

    Chernobyl on HBO or Crave. Very well done. 9.5 on IMDB

  135. Munny says:

    Reja: Too Late with John Hawkes and Robert Forester

    This looks interesting. I will try and track it down. Thank you.

  136. Munny says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Munny,

    Chernobyl on HBO or Crave. Very well done. 9.5 on IMDB

    Dude, so right. I couldn’t give it a 9.5, but to me, that was about as good as TV gets.

  137. Victoria Oil says:

    Reja: The world junior tournament can really mess with a GM’s head. If a player of interest goes on a heater he’s moving on up to the east side with a deluxe apartment in the sky.

    Especially if the GM is ‘decision-making challenged’ like Chia Pete was.

    Props on The Jeffersons reference.

  138. jp says:

    For fun and as a reference to what’s actually happened I looked at Oilers players last 3 years in average actual and per 82 games scoring:

    Player GP-G-A-TP GP-G-A-TP
    McDavid- 81-37-71-108 82-38-72-110
    Draisaitl– 81-35-49-84 – 82-35-50-85
    Nuge—— 75-23-30-53 – 82-25-33-58
    Neal——- 68-18-17-35 – 82-22-20-42
    Gagner— 62-11-20-31 — 82-15-26-41
    Chiasson- 72-14-13-27 — 82-16-16-30
    Granlund- 66-13-9-22 —- 82-16-11-27
    Archibald- 40-7-5-12 —– 82-13-11-24
    Kassian— 77-10-13-23 — 82-10-14-24
    Khaira—– 46-5-8-13 —– 82-9-15-24
    Puljujarvi– 46-6-6-12 —– 82-10-12-22
    Brodziak— 73-8-11-19 — 82-9-12-21

    Klefbom— 70-7-22-29 — 82-8-26-34
    Nurse —– 69-7-19-26 — 82-8-23-31
    Benning — 68-5-13-18 — 82-6-15-21
    Larsson— 75-4-13-17 — 82-4-15-19
    Russell — 73-3-14-17 — 82-3-16-19

    Smith——- 52 22-21-6 2.77 .911
    Koskinen– 51 25-21-6 2.93 .906 *just last season

    **Partial seasons**
    Jones——— 17-1-5-6 — 82-5-24-29
    Currie——— 21-2-3-5 — 82-8-12-20
    Bear———– 18-1-3-4 — 82-4-14-18
    Gambardella 15-0-3-3 — 82-0-16-16
    Yamamoto— 26-1-4-5 — 82-4-12-16
    Jurco———- 19-2-1-3 — 82-10-6-16
    Cave———– 33-2-1-3 — 82-4–3–7

    Some guys need to recover, but this roster could be non-terrible. The 3 year averages for the current Oilers are a huge improvement on Lucic as the #6 scoring forward with 20 points.

  139. Reja says:

    Victoria Oil: Especially if the GM is ‘decision-making challenged’ like Chia Pete was.

    Props on The Jeffersons reference.

    If Jesse would have turned into a homerun Pete Craig and company would still be employed it was a big Whiff cost them their jobs. How good would Dubois are Tkachuk look on our roster.

  140. rickithebear says:

    Leadfarmer:

    Ran into the Dallas Goalie coach in Disney Orlando.
    During Olympic break 2014.
    We were waiting for families to come down in animal kingdom water rafts.
    Shot at them with water Gun.
    He was on Holiday’s with good friend Shawn Horcoff.

    We talked about my Table hockey, Hit goalie, Closed shot, Elite 0% corsi theory.
    He offered me his E- mail saying Reghr loved Analysis.
    His wife walked up.
    “ what you taking about”
    “Goalie Play”
    She said “ you could find each other in a Snow storm”
    Mike Valley was starting goalie 95-96 Chilliwack team with Horcoff.

    I contacted him by email.
    He said he wanted to arrange discussion.

    He was replaced as goalie coach and nothing happened.

    Never go to Disney a week before standard Feb. break.
    We thought it would be a great Idea.
    ESPN shot all the National cheerleading championship shows during that week.
    Packs of Cheerleading association estrogen filled ponied tailed wolves.
    Sat with A couple who were cheerleader national champs from diffrent SEC schools.
    Their cheerleading factory had 10,000 students.
    Holy fuck.

    Islander & Dallas star final not a chance.

  141. rickithebear says:

    If bear is skating and learning from Russell and Benning!
    Amen to that!

  142. Stephen says:

    Munny: I’ve seen it. Very good visuals. Story needs work.
    ______

    Yeraslob got me thinking scifi so I just tried 10 minutes of Solo: A Star Wars Story…oh dear Gord this looks bad.How can a studio make home runs like Moana and then shit the bed like the last three Star Wars movies?

    Don’t let the “Disney” name fool you. The live-action and CG movies are completely different studios/worlds/creative teams. In fact, the creative team at Pixar has been involved in Disney CG movies over the last several years, ever since they were acquired, because Disney realized those guys had a better track record of producing good CG movies.

  143. rickithebear says:

    I pushed Dubois ahead of Puljujarvi that draft year.
    Dubois age NHLE screamed #2.
    Many I presented too started to get on board.
    The analytics said Dubois #2.

  144. Professor Q says:

    Munny: I’ve seen it. Very good visuals. Story needs work.
    ______

    Yeraslob got me thinking scifi so I just tried 10 minutes of Solo: A Star Wars Story…oh dear Gord this looks bad.How can a studio make home runs like Moana and then shit the bed like the last three Star Wars movies?

    I loved Solo, actually. Pretty good film. Loved the twist.

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear: Source: https://www.nhl.com/news/roster-reboot-ethan-bear/c-308591838

    Bear moved in with former Condors forward and Albertan Evan Polei in June and has been working out with local

    Learning from Russell, as a plus?

    Being able to defend and stick in the HD zone, or whatever its called, is great, however, when there is so much additional defending due to lack of certain other skills (ability to defend the gap off the rush and stop zone entries and ability to transition the puck out of the game with possession), well, maybe the player isn’t the best mentor for the youngsters?

  146. Munny says:

    Professor Q,

    I watched it to its conclusion… in part because I knew after the intro I would never choose to watch it again. It was weak. Paint-by-numbers clichéd action movie with no peril, not set in the SW universe, starring a Han Solo who isn’t a Han Solo. But then again Opie Cunningham probably should’ve had his license to make movies revoked long long ago.

    Furthermore Disney reduces Han’s character to an Al Bundy reminiscing about his Senior Football Year, because apparently everything important that happened to Han happened in his first two weeks out in the world,

    $300M movie that only grossed $400M, despite having the name franchise. Now I know why.

    Rogue One has been the only really good movie of the Disney-era. They had better get the next one right because the franchise is drowning.

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