The Season to Come

My reasonable expectations for last season listed 32 names, and a goal differential (249-229) of +20. The actual factual total (229-271) was -42. Humility walks beside me every day. On merit.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

RE 2019-20 GP (FORWARDS)

I’ll post the scoring numbers in a series of articles at The Athletic beginning early September, but this gives us a nice discussion point in terms of who makes the team, who gets recalled during the year, and just how cloudy things are at center.

The top four left wingers and top four right wingers are shy, so I have several players (Benson, Gambardella, Jurco, Yamamoto) pushing up, starting mid-season with Benson. Over at center, it takes even less time for Marody to find his way into the lineup.

I didn’t list Kyle Brodziak, that may change if we get some good news on him entering camp. Sam Gagner is on the No. 4 line but could spend significant time playing in the heart of the order.

I will tell you that 12 forwards spend at least some time on the top two lines based on my model, an extreme amount of churn.

By the end of the season, I have Marody, Benson and Yamamoto playing in the top 9F. That should tell you what I think is going to happen at the trade deadline.

RE 2019-20 GP (DEFENSE)

The Oilers are approaching a period of transition on defense, it actually began the day of Andrej Sekera’s buyout. I expect we’ll see a laundry list of blue at No. 2 RD and it’s possible we see a trade if two of the kids establish themselves.

All of Caleb Jones, William Lagesson and Ethan Bear will be in the final year of their entry deals. I know some of you have their career trajectory locked in but for me I think all three are worth auditioning this coming season. An informed opinion next spring is vital.

As is the case with the forwards, I think the trade deadline may bring more clarity.

PRONMAN’S RANKINGS

Corey Pronman has published most of his rankings for 2019 summer, with only the top 10 to go. Edmonton remains. This represents an impressive spike (No. 22 last summer) and I think it’s on merit. The Oilers have a nice pipeline now, especially on defense where there is quality front to back (Jones NHL ready, Bouchard close, Broberg matriculating). Even the strength and quality of the forwards (Marody, Benson, Yamamoto, Lavoie) is improving. I think the Oilers will grab a sniper in the top 10 next summer and at that point might have one of the best farm systems in the league.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend on TSN1260. Our tennis insider John Horn previews the U.S. Open and Bianca Andreescu’s path to the final four (or better). Plus Hernan Salas and Matt Iwanyk preview the Eskimos-Blue Bombers clash tonight at Commonwealth. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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100 Responses to "The Season to Come"

  1. nvan97 says:

    I’m guessing that Samorukov’s emergence, and a strong draft (2 consensus 1st rounders in Broberg and Lavoie) were the biggest factors in their climb. Is there another team in the league that has the depth and quality of d prospects that they have now? They reasonably have 6 that project as actual NHLers and that’s not some hometown, rose-coloured glasses either.

  2. Darryl8843 says:

    If we draft in the top 10 next year that would be extremely disappointing to me. That would likely mean meaningless games in February once again.

  3. texmex says:

    Darryl8843,

    Prepare to be disappointed!!!!

  4. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    “Humility walks beside me every day.”
    LT – don’t be so hard on yourself!
    The probability of a repeat of “zero performance” from so many bottom 6 players like last year, has to be quite low….right?

  5. Brantford Boy says:

    Good post…

    LT: “I think the Oilers will grab a sniper in the top 10 next summer and at that point might have one of the best farm systems in the league.”

    Last week in August and you’ve nailed us in the coffin for bottom of the league… good grief, sadly, unless these wingers catch fire and special teams are extremely improved, this is reasonable.

  6. Bruce McCurdy says:

    nvan97:
    I’m guessing that Samorukov’s emergence, and a strong draft (2 consensus 1st rounders in Broberg and Lavoie) were the biggest factors in their climb. Is there another team in the league that has the depth and quality of d prospects that they have now? They reasonably have 6 that project as actual NHLers and that’s not some hometown, rose-coloured glasses either.

    The depth of defence prospects is outstanding. Over at the Cult of Hockey’s annual prospect series, we have 7 defenders — Bouchard, Jones, Broberg, Samorukov, Lagesson, Persson, Bear — ranked in the top 10, & on a case by case basis it’s reasonable to suggest that each has a legitimate shot.

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    Sooooo, Kuznetsov…… what’s the deal there?

  8. russ99 says:

    I’d swap Jones and Persson.

    Jones looks to be at least close to ready, and played right side last year in the AHL.

    We have no idea what we’re getting with Persson other than NHLE, and there’s usually the adjustment period crossing from Europe to North America. At the least, he may need some AHL time.

    There could be the opportunity for an NHL defenseman on an PTO, who could earn a top six role.

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve mentioned this before but, in my opinion, if Colby Cave and Josh Currie are in the lineup, there are issues and the season likely isn’t going well.

    Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t mind Currie last year and he’s got a great story. Cave was “fine” but “fine” isn’t good enough.

    These are the definition of tweeners and big time depth players – like 3rd/4th call-up option type players.

    Neither of them “hurt” when in the lineup, but, at the same time, “not hurting” is not good enough – we need players to help make a positive impact, even on the 4th line.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    If Persson plays 61 games that is likely a very good thing as it likely means that he is indeed able to handle at least 3rd pairing 5 on 5 minutes – I’m confident his offence/PP ability will translate somewhat and, if he can take a regular shift, he should be a positive addition.

    I like the game numbers on Yamamoto and Bouchard as it should mean they were in the AHL until at least the turn of the calendar and then re-called – hopefully on merit as opposed to a plethora of injuries and/or dispositions of expiring contracts at the deadline.

  11. nvan97 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The depth of defence prospects is outstanding. Over at the Cult of Hockey’s annual prospect series, we have 7 defenders — Bouchard, Jones, Broberg, Samorukov, Lagesson, Persson, Bear — ranked in the top 10, & on a case by case basis it’s reasonable to suggest that each has a legitimate shot.

    I sometimes forget about Persson because he seems more like a Haas or Nygard signing because of his age. That’s quite the stable.

  12. JimmyV1965 says:

    Steve Kournianos released his farm system rankings recently. He had the Oilers at 14th. He ranked the top 10 prospects for each team. Marody didn’t make the list for Edmonton. Neither did Lagesson. He had Yamamoto ranked fifth. Rodrigue ranked 7th.

    Makes you wonder how much they really know about the farm systems of each team. Kournianos is a real amateur guy and it looks like his list really favoured teams with guys drafted high, regardless of how they performed post draft.

    I was surprised he had the Kings farm system number two. He even ranked Vilardi their 8th best prospect, even though his career is sadly in deep jeopardy due to back issues.

  13. godot10 says:

    Joel Persson is in the last year of his ELC also.

    ——————————————————————
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  14. OilersFuture says:

    Based on your game played estimates here is what I have as potential point totals for the role players based on the players historical data.
    Player – G – A – Pts
    Neal – 18 – 17 – 35
    Gagner – 13 – 19 – 32
    Chiasson – 13 – 12 – 25
    Granlund – 15 – 9 – 24
    Kassian – 9 – 13 – 22
    Khaira – 6 – 11 – 17
    Archibald – 10 – 7 – 17

    Is that good enough for the Oiler’s to make the playoffs? Here is the projected estimate:

    Team Oilers Est.
    GP 465 (Total Games for their Projected 4th – 10th Forward scorers)
    G 84 (Total Goals for their Projected 4th – 10th Forward scorers)
    Pts 172 (Total Points for their Projected 4th – 10th Forward scorers)
    PPG 0.369892473 (Total Points / Game for their Projected 4th – 10th Forward scorers)
    GPG 0.180645161 (Total Goals / Games for their Projected 4th – 10th Forward scorers)

    Versus Teams that made the playoffs in the West Last Year

    Team Dal
    GP 482
    G 56
    Pts 161
    PPG 0.334024896
    GPG 0.116182573

    Team Col
    GP 507
    G 92
    Pts 225
    PPG 0.443786982
    GPG 0.181459566

    Team Win
    GP 534
    G 115
    Pts 236
    PPG 0.441947566
    GPG 0.215355805

    Team STL
    GP 481
    G 90
    Pts 239
    PPG 0.496881497
    GPG 0.187110187

    Team Nash
    GP 494
    G 90
    Pts 204
    PPG 0.412955466
    GPG 0.182186235

    Team Vegas
    GP 447
    G 103
    Pts 231
    PPG 0.516778523
    GPG 0.230425056

    Team SJ
    GP 547
    G 139
    Pts 311
    PPG 0.568555759
    GPG 0.254113346

    Team Cal
    GP 529
    G 122
    Pts 274
    PPG 0.517958412
    GPG 0.230623819

  15. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Darryl8843:
    If we draft in the top 10 next year that would be extremely disappointing to me. That would likely mean meaningless games in February once again.

    Extremely disappointed, yes. Surprised, not at all.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like Broberg and Berlund will be paired again today…..

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Sooooo, Kuznetsov…… what’s the deal there?

    A 4 year suspension is nothing to sniff at.

    He’s going to need to toe the line in the NHL or they’ll run him out on a rail. I hope he doesn’t blow it or take a powder.

    Thanks. I’ll be here all week. Try the veal…

  18. PennersPancakes says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Seeing Calgary at 31st warms my cold icy heart.

  19. slopitch says:

    PennersPancakes:
    ArmchairGM,

    Seeing Calgary at 31st warms my cold icy heart.

    I wish this blog had a like button 🙂

  20. jp says:

    nvan97:
    I’m guessing that Samorukov’s emergence, and a strong draft (2 consensus 1st rounders in Broberg and Lavoie) were the biggest factors in their climb. Is there another team in the league that has the depth and quality of d prospects that they have now? They reasonably have 6 that project as actual NHLers and that’s not some hometown, rose-coloured glasses either.

    Another big reason for the climb in rankings is they didn’t graduate anyone last year.

  21. Material Elvis says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Extremely disappointed, yes. Surprised, not at all.

    I won’t be too disappointed because a) I’m not expecting them to make the playoffs, and b) the 2020 draft class looks outstanding (and the Oilers desperately need more forward talent in their system).

  22. David says:

    What team inside the top ten are we trading with?

  23. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve mentioned this before but, in my opinion, if Colby Cave and Josh Currie are in the lineup, there are issues and the season likely isn’t going well.

    Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t mind Currie last year and he’s got a great story. Cave was “fine” but “fine” isn’t good enough.

    These are the definition of tweeners and big time depth players – like 3rd/4th call-up option type players.

    Neither of them “hurt” when in the lineup, but, at the same time, “not hurting” is not good enough – we need players to help make a positive impact, even on the 4th line.

    “Fine” and “not hurting” is, well, fine for the 4th lines if All of the 2nd and 3rd line forward bets pay off. Given that is unlikely, yes, you’d like the 4th to have outscoring capability since lines 2 and 3 don’t.

  24. Professor Q says:

    David:
    What team inside the top ten are we trading with?

    Top Ten in the NHL or Draft?

  25. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10:
    Joel Persson is in the last year of his ELC also.

    ——————————————————————
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    Technically Persson burned thru his 1-year ELC last year, when he was loaned back to Vaxjo for his 24-year-old season. This year he is on his second contract, so no bonuses, just a straight $1 million ticket.

    1-year, 1-way, $1 million — the classic “show me” contract.

  26. Professor Q says:

    Tippett wants to keep Draisaitl with McDavid, and that’s great. Best pair in the League.

    Also wants Neal with Nige to start to see how things go. Not bad at all.

    Koskinen and Smith? He hopes to have them split 41-41 or around there, and he doesn’t think either are able to do 40+ games. Which is fine, if it works.

  27. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The depth of defence prospects is outstanding. Over at the Cult of Hockey’s annual prospect series, we have 7 defenders — Bouchard, Jones, Broberg, Samorukov, Lagesson, Persson, Bear — ranked in the top 10, & on a case by case basis it’s reasonable to suggest that each has a legitimate shot.

    Bruce,
    I wanted to thank you for the excellent prospect ranking you and your colleagues have been running over at CoH. Three particularly striking articles that may be of interest to other fanatics here (that may not have seen these already):

    1. These articles summarizing the draft picks spent by the Oilers desperately trying to address goaltending needs, a problem they keep creating for themselves (e.g., Dubnyk, Brossoit), is both laughable and nauseating:

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/for-all-their-focus-on-drafting-goalies-edmonton-oilers-top-netminding-hopeful-is-college-free-agent-shane-starrett

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-their-evergreen-search-for-an-internally-developed-netminder-edmonton-oilers-look-to-khl-phenom-ilya-konovalov

    Speaking as a former goalie myself, it is nice to see KH (also a former goalie) at the helm so he can set some order to these years of chaos at this position. The Konovalov pick initially threw me, b/c I knew nothing about him and it seemed a reach for the 3rd pick…but now that I know more about him, it was a very astute acquisition. I think he could be the best of the bunch and “arrive” in 2 years.

    2. The summary of draft picks in the cupboard in 2015 and the total WASTE of so many of them by PC flailing around without a clue is heartbreaking. This point has been mentioned a google times on this site, but seeing that table in this article got my heart rate up to “furious” yet again…

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/after-years-of-development-caleb-jones-is-poised-to-win-a-job-on-edmonton-oilers-blueline

    Oh, what could have been if the GM didn’t try to do anything “smart” and simply make the picks.

  28. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I’ve mentioned this before but, in my opinion, if Colby Cave and Josh Currie are in the lineup, there are issues and the season likely isn’t going well.

    Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t mind Currie last year and he’s got a great story. Cave was “fine” but “fine” isn’t good enough.

    These are the definition of tweeners and big time depth players – like 3rd/4th call-up option type players.

    Neither of them “hurt” when in the lineup, but, at the same time, “not hurting” is not good enough – we need players to help make a positive impact, even on the 4th line.

    I agree on Cave that was definitely Pete’s boy and I know he’s super super cheap but Holland mentioned a 3 c. I believe he’ll acquire him once these crazy RFA domino and team rosters are shook out. Jesse plus for a 3C who can play 2c in a pitch PK and win a god damn face off from both sides when it counts. ( one of the most underrated stats in these parts)

  29. commonfan29 says:

    The way this roster is built, what if they just said “to hell with it” and threw Nuge onto the first line too? Tippett could then coach all the other lines up on how to abandon even the slightest pretense of offense and just go into a total defensive shell when L1 isn’t on the ice.

    I honestly think there are worse ways to attack things with the personnel they have.

  30. Reja says:

    David:
    What team inside the top ten are we trading with?

    That’s the spirit. All aboard the Holland-Tippett train. Toot! Toot!

  31. pts2pndr says:

    While I understand a certain degree on negativity I can see definite possibilities with the current roster. My hope is that the new coach will be as advertised as in putting players in a position to succeed. Given that speed is the new skill in the NHL the forward lineup that I see as giving us the best chance of success is as follows:
    Draisaitl McDavid. Kassian
    Nygard Nugent Hopkins Neal
    Chaison. Marody. Archibald
    Granlund Khaira. Gagner

    Haas Jurco
    I would leave the D pairings as proposed by LT. Given my proposed lineup there is balance in that each line has speed, a shooter and reasonable size. I have by design two penalty killers on the fourth line. With this lineup the oilers would run predominantly three lines with Draisaitl and McDavid slotting periodically as required at centre on the third line. The fourth line being used sparingly would allow for two rested penalty killers used to working with one another available for the first part Of each PK. Both Chaison and Neal are slotted on their off wings where they have been most effective. While our roster may not be perfect I believe innovative use of the roster may be the answer.

  32. Offside says:

    “Humility walks beside me every day. On merit.”

    I’d put the blame squarely on the Oilers organization. Just for once I would like them to meet a reasonable expectation

  33. Ribs says:

    Well damn, I kind of forgot about the Sekera buyout. Really hoping that one doesn’t come back biting us asswards.

  34. Reja says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Bruce,
    I wanted to thank you for the excellent prospect ranking you and your colleagues have been running over at CoH. Three particularly striking articles that may be of interest to other fanatics here (that may not have seen these already):

    1. These articles summarizing the draft picks spent by the Oilers desperately trying to address goaltending needs, a problem they keep creating for themselves (e.g., Dubnyk, Brossoit), is both laughable and nauseating:

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/for-all-their-focus-on-drafting-goalies-edmonton-oilers-top-netminding-hopeful-is-college-free-agent-shane-starrett

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-their-evergreen-search-for-an-internally-developed-netminder-edmonton-oilers-look-to-khl-phenom-ilya-konovalov

    Speaking as a former goalie myself, it is nice to see KH (also a former goalie) at the helm so he can set some order to these years of chaos at this position. The Konovalov pick initially threw me, b/c I knew nothing about him and it seemed a reach for the 3rd pick…but now that I know more about him, it was a very astute acquisition. I think he could be the best of the bunch and “arrive” in 2 years.

    2. The summary of draft picks in the cupboard in 2015 and the total WASTE of so many of them by PC flailing around without a clue is heartbreaking. This point has been mentioned a google times on this site, but seeing that table in this article got my heart rate up to “furious” yet again…

    https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/after-years-of-development-caleb-jones-is-poised-to-win-a-job-on-edmonton-oilers-blueline

    Oh, what could have been if the GM didn’t try to do anything “smart” and simply make the picks.

    I love reading CoH and listening to the pod casts all hail former Goalies they definitely few the game differently.

  35. stevebergeron97 says:

    Maxim Denezhkin with a nice snipe today.

  36. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kuznetsov is like Ben Johnson in that he got caught as opposed to being one of the few.

    One of my least favourite things about sports is the ongoing issues never adequately dealt with around cheating with drugs and what I believe is fairly wide spread substance issues.

    Because my children look up to these people, as children do l, and the leaders do zippo ding ding about the obvious. At least the drugging isn’t obvious to my kids, yet.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like Jesse is practicing with Karpat

  38. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looks like Jesse is practicing with Karpat

    Not surprising.

  39. ArmchairGM says:

    PennersPancakes:
    ArmchairGM,

    Seeing Calgary at 31st warms my cold icy heart.

    Mine as well. But I wish I’d read the article prior to posting!

  40. norm_klassen says:

    Any chance this year we play a more boring defensive system? Maybe nurse and k bomb finally get it defensively as they sit with over 300 Nhl games each? Its gonna be a up and down winter that’s for sure

  41. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looks like Jesse is practicing with Karpat

    Is that anywhere near Yaroslavl.

  42. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    Kuznetsov is like Ben Johnson in that he got caught as opposed to being one of the few.

    One of my least favourite things about sports is the ongoing issues never adequately dealt with around cheating with drugs and what I believe is fairly wide spread substance issues.

    Because my children look up to these people, as children do l, and the leaders do zippo ding ding about the obvious. At least the drugging isn’t obvious to my kids, yet.

    Doesn’t Kuznetsov know it’s out of your system in three days supposedly. Those Russian babes can be quite persistent and convincing.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Darryl:
    If we draft in the top 10 next year that would be extremely disappointing to me. That would likely mean meaningless games in February once again.

    Or, it means they fail to make the playoffs in the last game of the season but then with the lottery………

    Meaningful hockey through April and the top pick.

    I am not saying I take that over the playoffs.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    BruceMcCurdy: The depth of defence prospects is outstanding. Over at the Cult of Hockey’s annual prospect series, we have 7 defenders — Bouchard, Jones, Broberg, Samorukov, Lagesson, Persson, Bear — ranked in the top 10, on a case by case basis it’s reasonable to suggest that each has a legitimate shot.

    The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

  45. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Or, it means they fail to make the playoffs in the last game of the season but then with the lottery………

    Meaningful hockey through April and the top pick.

    I am not saying I take that over the playoffs.

    Playoffs?! Don’t talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?! I’m just hoping we can win a game!

  46. Ribs says:

    Kuznetsov’s Scouting Report on The Hockey News site gave me a chuckle…

    Has electric offensive skills and elite playmaking qualities from the center position. Can set up his linemates or finish off plays equally well. When he is on top of his game, he also displays some tenacity. Can get a little moody at times, and can go stretches where he is neutralized by the opposition. So, he needs to improve his focus and game-to-game consistency. Also needs to shoot the puck more.

  47. Victoria Oil says:

    LT – just wondering about Khaira’s projection of 53 games. Do you see lingering injury issues and/or do you see him scratched for a few games?

    With respect to Mike Smith, I’m hoping for the ‘under’ on his 41 games due to bonus issues.

  48. defmn says:

    Victoria Oil:
    LT – just wondering about Khaira’s projection of 53 games. Do you see lingering injury issues and/or do you see him scratched for a few games?

    With all the players listed at between 60 and 69 games I have been trying to find a link that will tell me how many games into the season the Oilers will be at the TD.

  49. Reja says:

    slopitch: I wish this blog had a like button

    I can’t stand Craig the Flames shrill Button. Now that Holland is in E town you won’t hear him flapping negatively on every player in Edmonton. I hope Bouchard makes him eat a shit sandwich starting this year.

  50. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Looks like Jesse is practicing with Karpat

    Karpat dann Kaputt!

  51. Lowetide says:

    Victoria Oil:
    LT – just wondering about Khaira’s projection of 53 games. Do you see lingering injury issues and/or do you see him scratched for a few games?

    With respect to Mike Smith, I’m hoping for the ‘under’ on his 41 games due to bonus issues.

    He hasn’t played 70 games in a season and I faded pretty much all of the forwards not named 97, 29, 93 Neal, Gagner and Granlund. we don’t know how this coach will react to Khaira, or Cave or Gambardella. He could also get traded at the deadline.

  52. rickithebear says:

    In the Ben Johnson documentary the head of US doping testing said they took 200 gold medal winners B samples from past Summer Olympics.
    Tested them with New technology.
    Said None of them would want the results released.

    In the Dublin inquiry.
    Charlie Francis pointed out that 65 US champions were going to the same juice doctor as Ben.
    Dubin said we are not dealing with outside issues.
    Just our own.
    Dumb Fuck!

    The original Icurus could have been the dubin inquiry burying the entire US Summer Olympic program as well.

    The Russian Netflix movie could have been Icarus 2.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot:
    Joel Persson is in the last year of his ELC also.

    ——————————————————————
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    Not quite true – his ELC was one-year and ran last year. He re-signed for $1M for one-year on a one-way contract.

    He’s still waiver exempt though.

  54. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

    Ditto!

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    MaterialElvis: I won’t be too disappointed because a) I’m not expecting them to make the playoffs, and b) the 2020 draft class looks outstanding (and the Oilers desperately need more forward talent in their system).

    One potential positive of all the 1 year contracts is, if they are going to be selling at the deadline, they could potentially stock up on picks – of course, the value of most of these guys would probably be a mid to low round pick but more picks is still a good thing.

    You also never know, maybe Gagner is scoring at 50 point pace and/or Chiasson at a 20G pace and we could get something in the lower-middle rounds.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: “Fine” and “not hurting” is, well, fine for the 4th lines if All of the 2nd and 3rd line forward bets pay off. Given that is unlikely, yes, you’d like the 4th to have outscoring capability since lines 2 and 3 don’t.

    I don’t agree.

    I want a fourth line that can help the team by doing more than not losing momentum or not giving it back. A good fourth line that can spend time in the offensive zone helps the team in many ways including allowing more rest for Drai and McDavid.

    Having some real NHL players like Khaira and Gagner on the fourth line between a skill guy like Marody (if he’s NHL caliber) has the potential to impact that game alot more than the Cave’s and Currie’s of the world.

  57. Revolved says:

    Woodguy,
    Georgexs,

    I understand that the coach and much of the broader public has accepted and even endorses pairing up McDavid and Draisaitl for big minutes. When you say it should be done in the name of winning the toughest minutes, I feel like that statement makes it clear that you should instead focus on winning the easier minutes instead. This means not playing our two superstars together. A few of the many good reasons to play the three centres on their own lines are to spread out scoring, decrease their workload and increase line stability.

    My favourite bit of Georgexs latest excellent research is that he showed the weakest part of St.Louis’ forward group to be their top line forwards, while they had quite strong scorers through forwards 4-12. Although giving McDavid a Khaira, a Neal or a Puljujarvi would reduce his numbers vs Draisaitl, the improvement in their numbers is a valuable driver of team success.

    The most painful part of last season was watching two veteran coaches play those kids to death. I showed earlier this summer that Mcdavid had played fourteen more entire games of minutes than the average top line forward by the end of the season. McDavid barely managed to run a 50% goals share after a terrible end to the 18/19 season, even though he was playing with Draisaitl. Just like rest for goalies, a player can only play so many minutes in a season, and I would like the best minutes to be saved for last – both in a game and in a season.

    In order to judge line stability, the last two seasons I have calculated the average percentage of time that each team’s top two centres spent with their two most common line mates. The Oilers have ranked 30th and 31st by this metric the last two years, which helped the correlation of season points rank and line stability to 0.55 in 17/18 and 0.52 in 18/19. Three centres with consistent wingers can roll, and only need to be taken apart to push at the end of a game and on special teams. I understand that experimenting has to happen to find chemistry, but McDavid-Khaira, Draisaitl-Chiasson and Nugent-Hopkins-Kassian are three pairs that have outscored their minutes thus far.

    We have seen what 25 minutes a night of McDavid-Draisaitl looks like to its brutal extreme last season through two coaches, and I don’t want to see it again. I want to see some innovative coaching that can allow for constant speed and pressure through all three zones. I want to see our players finish the season playing their best hockey of the year. This got long, and I will change nothing, but this is what I think needs to happen for consistent success.

  58. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

    Really? This is the first I’ve heard of it.

  59. McSorley33 says:

    Darryl8843,

    If we draft in the top 10 next year that would be extremely disappointing to me. That would likely mean meaningless games in February once again.
    **************************************************************************************
    Scans list of projected wingers for McDavid, Drai and RNH…..throws up slighty in mouth.

    “If” we draft top ten next year?

    On the bright side, we will be in line to draft -another – LHD to augment Kassian and Chiasson.

  60. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide: He hasn’t played 70 games in a season and I faded pretty much all of the forwards not named 97, 29, 93 Neal, Gagner and Granlund. we don’t know how this coach will react to Khaira, or Cave or Gambardella. He could also get traded at the deadline.

    I think that if the Oilers are out of the playoffs by the trade deadline there will be a blood letting of sorts. The remaining games will then be used as a player screening from the farm team to see which players have potential for next year. Your games played could very well be spot on. I am hopeful that Tippet is able to build a competitive team with his current group of players. He is the closest thing to a players coach that we have since Krueger. Competitive in my definition for this year would be for the team to still have a realistic chance to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. I also expect to see at least one or two of the left shot D being moved for help elsewhere. My picks would be Russel and or Jones or both.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    BruceMcCurdy: Technically Persson burned thru his 1-year ELC last year, when he was loaned back to Vaxjo for his 24-year-old season. This year he is on his second contract, so no bonuses, just a straight $1 million ticket.

    1-year, 1-way, $1 million — the classic “show me” contract.

    Got it right this time Bruce…….. just kidding with ya.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I can’t stand Craig the Flames shrill Button. Now that Holland is in E town you won’t hear him flapping negatively on every player in Edmonton. I hope Bouchard makes him eat a shit sandwich starting this year.

    There is a chance I’ve never heard commentator glow so much about a prospect as Button with Broberg at the Summer Showcase this year – even after Sweden had stopped playing he was still talking about him.

  63. rickithebear says:

    Top EVTOI off pairs above or near Mcdavid – Drai EVTOI Numbers.
    It was a re-education relative to past pair numbers.

    Schiefle – Wheeler 1241 EVTOI
    Crosby – Guetzel 1170
    Marner – Tavares 1131
    Monahan – Gaudreau 1128
    Marchesault – Karlsson 1088
    Kopitar – Brown 1062
    McKinnon – Rantanen 1056
    Danaukt – Gallagher 955
    Barkov – dandanov 913
    Seguin – Radulov 911
    Dubois – Atkinson 910
    Drai – Mcdavid 888
    Eichel – Skinner. 880
    Kucherov – point 867
    Stall – Zucker 830
    Couture – Meir 822
    Bergeron – Marchand 791
    Backstrom – Oshie 785
    Nelson – Lee 777
    Johansen – forsberg 776
    O,Reilly – Tarasenko 766
    Krejci – debrusk 748
    Giroux – couturier 739
    Zibanegad – Krueger 724
    Peterson – Boeser 672
    Zajac – Coleman 670
    Hischier – Palameri 639

    Hischier – healthy Hall 17-18 848

    RNH had 318 of Chiasson as top W when playing forward.
    700 – 800 min of Neal might be very nice.

    1150 is avg TOI for the top 5 EVTOI pairs in the game.
    With each other
    Draisaitl 1.62 evg/60
    Mcdavid 1.62 evg/60
    Without
    Mcdavid .73 evg/60
    Draisaitl .71 evg/60

    professor Q how many minutes do we give them together.
    1150 7 – 3 evg = 4 more evg each; +8 g; 78.5% of Mcdavid EVTOI
    1250 19.5 evg – 8.5 = 5.5 more evg each; +11g; 85.3%
    1350 26 evg – 11.6 = 7.2 evg more each; +14g; 92.2%
    1450 30.4 evg – 13.5 = 8.5 evg more each; +17g; 99.0%

    Is the Mcdavid and Draisaitl passing to other players evg/60 boost more important than than evg resulting from increasing Drai time from 60.6% of Mcd EVTOI.

    Drai 3C Minutes maybe a huge need if Haas, Gagner, Khaira, Brodziak 3C minutes do not work out.
    Then Drai getting 60.0% (595) of starting 3C EVTOI maybe important.

    Tough choice.

  64. rickithebear says:

    Button glows about Brobergs forward skating.
    In other words his ability to abandon HD area quicker than other D prospects.

    I was frustrated how many times Broberg was the 4th skater back in His DZ at summer showcase.
    That is not even re-establishing the 2D -1G structure in the real DZone the HD area.
    Just brutal HD area def coverage.

    LT: mentioning Jaxon Bellamy as a Rookie Camp option.
    I could only hope this to come true.
    They sign him and Lagesson slots into roster spot like Holland hinted at.
    Bellamy would be our best HDarea def prospect period.
    Best cup core roster prospect.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: Really? This is the first I’ve heard of it.

    and?

  66. Scungilli Slushy says:

    norm_klassen:
    Any chance this year we play a more boring defensive system? Maybe nurse and k bomb finally get it defensively as they sit with over 300 Nhl games each? Its gonna be a up and down winter that’s for sure

    Tippet has discussed his system when he was hired. The D and Gs are going to have a much better time this seasons.

    McLelland apparently had them playing a man on man system, the hardest for young teams and players.

    Thus Nurse chasing to the blue line, opponents getting left completely alone in front of the net after a breakdown, and multiple shot attempts before help arrived if it wasn’t already too late.

    I believe his system (which Hitch didn’t seem to change much probably because that can be difficult if there isn’t practice time) also lead to the D not having enough outlet options, so lots of glass and out, lots of stretch passes.

    Player quality had some to do with that, but I don’t feel the system fit the available players.

    Tippet said he wants players to take the good ice and leave bad ice , basically control the middle and
    play zone which most teams do now because if obstruction is being called it’s really hard to play man on man.

    Tippet also said he likes the team to play as 5 man units and move the puck up that way, options. If he can get them playing that way, I expect we’ll see a lot of players looking more like they have a clue, opponents being kept to the outside and much better forward transition.

    We should see less multiple chances against, and the team being better at keeping the ozone instead of giving up possession because there aren’t players in place to work with.

    I also hope we see better and more seamless line changes as I feel they have been clumsy for years.

    The Isles and Blues showed how powerful a simple system and 23 guys buying in can be without roster changes, and it all starts with the coaches. Build team morale and build individuals by putting them in a place to succeed and with a clear mandate, something Tip also said he tries to do.

  67. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    rickithebear:
    Button glows about Brobergs forward skating.
    In other words his ability to abandon HD area quicker than other D prospects.

    I was frustrated how many times Broberg was the 4th skater back in His DZ at summer showcase.
    That is not even re-establishing the 2D -1G structure in the real DZone the HD area.
    Just brutal HD area def coverage.

    LT: mentioning Jaxon Bellamy as a Rookie Camp option.
    I could only hope this to come true.
    They sign him and Lagesson slots into roster spot like Holland hinted at.
    Bellamy would be our best HDarea def prospect period.
    Best cup core roster prospect.

    I know what you’re trying to say and all, but why does “abandoning the HDarea” matter when the puck is on your stick rushing into the OZ? Think more McDavid and less Russell.

    Edit: unless you’re trying to build a team that plays trap hockey… (barf)

  68. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: There is a chance I’ve never heard commentator glow so much about a prospect as Button with Broberg at the Summer Showcase this year – even after Sweden had stopped playing he was still talking about him.

    I’m pretty sure Button knew Holland was drafting Broberg which makes me believe they talk ( OBC among GM’s) Watch the slagging of the Oilers really toned down from Button and others.

  69. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

    He’s the sleeper of the prospects could quietly end up having a very long career in the NHL.

  70. norm_klassen says:

    Scungilli Slushy,

    I hope he can weave some magic. Just having everybody not look so confused on what there doing out there would help . I hope the tippet effect leads to improvement

  71. norm_klassen says:

    Laggesons 5 on 5 play was the best in the bake right? He should be seasoned enough to make the team . There is going to be growing pains with all our AHL defensemen it’s just the nature of the position.
    Think of it as a apprenticeship and identify which ones you want to spend time training at the NHL level

  72. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Tippet has discussed his system when he was hired. The D and Gs are going to have a much better time this seasons.

    McLelland apparently had them playing a man on man system, the hardest for young teams and players.

    Thus Nurse chasing to the blue line, opponents getting left completely alone in front of the net after a breakdown, and multiple shot attempts before help arrived if it wasn’t already too late.

    I believe his system (which Hitch didn’t seem to change much probably because that can be difficult if there isn’t practice time) also lead to the D not having enough outlet options, so lots of glass and out, lots of stretch passes.

    Player quality had some to do with that, but I don’t feel the system fit the available players.

    Tippet said he wants players to take the good ice and leave bad ice , basically control the middle and
    play zone which most teams do now because if obstruction is being called it’s really hard to play man on man.

    Tippet also said he likes the team to play as 5 man units and move the puck up that way, options. If he can get them playing that way, I expect we’ll see a lot of players looking more like they have a clue, opponents being kept to the outside and much better forward transition.

    We should see less multiple chances against, and the team being better at keeping the ozone instead of giving up possession because there aren’t players in place to work with.

    I also hope we see better and more seamless line changes as I feel they have been clumsy for years.

    The Isles and Blues showed how powerful a simple system and 23 guys buying in can be without rosterchanges, and it all starts with the coaches. Build team morale and build individuals by putting them in a place to succeed and with a clear mandate, something Tip also said he tries to do.

    I’m so excited to watch Tippett’s system. We’re going to see way less back dooring of Nurse and company for the alone in the fricking slot make your Goalie look bad goals.

  73. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: and?

    Perhaps Yeti just wants to thank you for making him aware of this … he apparently missed out on the dozen or so previous posts where you have raved about Mssr. Lagesson. I guess we will have to wait until the preseason games begin to see if William is legit or not.

  74. Lowetide says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Perhaps Yeti just wants to thank you for making him aware of this … he apparently missed out on the dozen or so previous posts where you have raved about Mssr. Lagesson. I guess we will have to wait until the preseason games begin to see if William is legit or not.

    I think it’s clear he is a talented young defender who has proven he can play AHL hockey and help his team win the battle. That’s only part of it though. He’ll need to prove it again in the NHL, while staying healthy and fitting in well with all of the other skill sets on the roster. Jones, Lagesson and Bear all looked good at one time or another during their entry deals, and now the organization has to find the keepers.

    Chances are injury will decide at least one future. Nature of the beast. I hope Lagesson plays 25 years and makes the HHOF, but we can’t know enough right now to make any statement with authority. He still has to learn to survive in the NHL. Oscar Klefbom is still learning, as an example.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    DecidedlySkepticalFan: Perhaps Yeti just wants to thank you for making him aware of this … he apparently missed out on the dozen or so previous posts where you have raved about Mssr. Lagesson. I guess we will have to wait until the preseason games begin to see if William is legit or not.

    Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

    Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

    Pretty sure I’ll read them again.

  76. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Lowetide,

    The “fitting in well with all of the other skill sets on the roster” is the part that concerns me most. That is an area where management/coaching has not distinguished themselves in the past. It’s an area flush with opportunity for self inflicted wounds. Let’s hope that the new regime focuses on player strengths rather than fixating on perceived weaknesses. Let’s hope that the coaching staff can adapt scheme to fit the roster rather than dogmatically insisting square pegs must fit into round holes. That is the only way we will see meaningful near term improvement. As you are fond of saying … and I agree, we wait.

  77. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

    Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

    Pretty sure I’ll ready them again.

    Pretty sure you are correct on all counts.

  78. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

    Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

    Pretty sure I’ll ready them again.

    They’re having a poke at you , relax, have some fun back.

    We’re here every day .

  79. pts2pndr says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
    Lowetide,

    The “fitting in well with all of the other skill sets on the roster” is the part that concerns me most. That is an area where management/coaching has not distinguished themselves in the past. It’s an area flush with opportunity for self inflicted wounds. Let’s hope that the new regime focuses on player strengths rather than fixating on perceived weaknesses. Let’s hope that the coaching staff can adapt scheme to fit the roster rather than dogmatically insisting square pegs must fit into round holes. That is the only way we will see meaningful near term improvement. As you are fond of saying … and I agree, we wait.

    Lagesson was part of a Swedish defensive pairing with Klefbom in the world junior championship in 15/16 I believe. He will be a fan favourite in Edmonton. He plays a very similar style as Larsson but with slightly better passing and offensive acumen in my opinion.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    I agree, he does play a similar style to Larsson in alot of ways – he is an aggressive and mean defender although not quite as mean as Larsson – Larsson is a tough SOB to play against.

    At the same time, his skating is quite a bit better than Larsson’s and I put his passing well above Larsson’s – Lagesson is a very solid puck mover. No, he’s not Bear or Bouchard or Sammy but quite adept in his own way.

    That may not translate to the NHL level, of course – we’ll know more in a few months.

    I call him the “new age Adam Larsson” – with his good mobility and transition game to go along with the plus defending, he’s built for today’s game.

  81. Georgexs says:

    On yesterday’s post, I wanted to add that, because I was looking at just one facet of the game (the offensive output of a team’s forwards), I shouldn’t expect to find a feature that’s highly predictive of a team’s chances of qualifying for the playoffs. I was excluding defensive and goalie play altogether, and I was also leaving out the offensive contribution of defensemen. If just one part of the game disproportionately dictated outcomes, then it would likely be obvious to everyone. Every team would know what to chase, they’d all chase it, and the differences between the teams on this one part of the game would gradually narrow. As the difference in the feature narrows, the feature would become less useful in predicting outcomes.

    Having said that, the top 6 rule I was investigating did do OK (60% accuracy) compared to making the playoffs in the previous season rule (62.5% accuracy) over the past 6 seasons.

    Once again, here’s a breakdown on how successful teams were over the past six seasons in making the playoffs based on the number of top 6 F’s they started the season with:

    # of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    2, 4, 0, .00
    3, 8, 5, .63
    4, 21, 12, .57
    5, 53, 21, .40
    6, 46, 24, .52
    7, 40, 26, .65
    8, 10, 8, .80

    Knowing the Oilers will be starting 19-20 with 4 top 6 F’s (based on total points in 18-19), the success rate of teams with just 3 and 4 top 6 F’s caught my eye.

    Intuitively, you’d expect to find that as you add top 6 F’s, you improve your chances for making the playoffs. But the above numbers suggest that’s not the case, that teams with just 4 top 6 F’s have done better in terms of qualifying for the playoffs than teams with 5 or 6 top 6 F’s.

    First thought is you find weird things in small samples. Extend the horizon.

    I did that. I went back to 97-98. Here are the results:

    # of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    1, 6, 1, .17
    2, 13, 3, .23
    3, 34, 15, .44
    4, 92, 46, .50
    5, 157, 82, .52
    6, 150, 88, .59
    7, 99, 53, .54
    8, 33, 25, .76
    9, 9, 7, .78

    Now, apart from the hiccup with 7 top 6 F’s, it seems that, over the past 21 seasons, as you add more top 6 F’s, you improve your chances of making the playoffs. More data is starting to make the pattern clearer.

    But I also pointed out that qualifying for the playoffs has become more of a crapshoot in the past few seasons. Here again are the number of teams that made the playoffs in the past six seasons that also made the playoffs in the previous season:

    13, 11
    14, 9
    15, 11
    16, 9
    17, 9
    18, 11

    The numbers stretching back to 2000 have all been in the double digits. It’s only in recent seasons that we’ve seen the phenomenon of 7 non-playoff teams from the previous season qualify for the playoffs.

    So maybe I shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the recent success of teams that were light on 6F’s… I’ll have a closer look at who those teams were and how they managed to qualify for the playoffs.

    I also wanted to share the numbers going back to 97-98 when looking at the number of 3F’s and the number of 9F’s.

    # of top 3 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    0, 40, 14, .35
    1, 89, 28, .31
    2, 155, 83, .54
    3, 166, 97, .58
    4, 103, 65, .63
    5, 36, 29, .81
    6, 4, 4, 1.00

    A pretty smooth pattern. The Oilers have 3 top 3 F’s this year. Historically, teams in that category have done significantly better than average in qualifying for the playoffs. Remarkably, the Oilers had 4 top 3 F’s to start 2013-14 (Hall, Gagner, Ebs, Yak) and 2014-15 (Hall, RNH, Ebs, Perron).

    Here are the results for the top 9 F’s.

    # of top 9 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    3, 3, 0, .00
    4, 6, 3, .50
    5, 15, 8, .53
    6, 63, 27, .43
    7, 135, 68, .50
    8, 144, 82, .57
    9, 130, 74, .57
    10, 64, 37, .58
    11, 23, 14, .61
    12, 9, 6, .67
    13, 1, 1, .00

    Some noisy data early but seems consistent with the idea that having more top 9 F’s helps a team’s chances of making the playoffs.

    Considering the 3 groups (3F, 6F, 9F), and when you look at a sufficient amount of data, it seems that starting a season with more forwards who’ve generated offense in the previous season helps your chances of making the playoffs in this season.

  82. jp says:

    pts2pndr: Lagessonwas part of a Swedish defensive pairing with Klefbom in the world junior championship in 15/16 I believe. He will be a fan favourite in Edmonton. He plays a very similar style as Larsson but with slightly better passing and offensive acumen in my opinion.

    I think you’re mistaken. Klefbom is 3 yrs older and last played in the World Jrs in 2012. Lagesson played in 2014 and 2016.

  83. CallighenMan says:

    jp: I think you’re mistaken. Klefbom is 3 yrs older and last played in the World Jrs in 2012. Lagesson played in 2014 and 2016.

    I think it may have been in a recent WC? 2 years ago? … too lazy and full of wine to check. hic!

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t see them ever having played together.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Lagesson played at the WJ in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, Klefbom played wj in 2011-12. He did play 2014-15 WHC but Lagesson was still U20.

  86. pts2pndr says:

    jp: I think you’re mistaken. Klefbom is 3 yrs older and last played in the World Jrs in 2012. Lagesson played in 2014 and 2016.

    It could have been worlds but I have seen them paired for team Sweden.

  87. pts2pndr says:

    Lowetide:
    Lagesson played at the WJ in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, Klefbom played wj in 2011-12. He did play 2014-15 WHC but Lagesson was still U20.

    Thanks LT. As I remember they were second pairing and Lagesson actually played the right side.

  88. Lowetide says:

    pts2pndr: Thanks LT. As I remember they were second pairing and Lagesson actually played the right side.

    No, they didn’t play together. One was at the WJ and the other at the WHC. They weren’t paired together based on Elite Prospects listing

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    Revolved:
    Woodguy,
    Georgexs,

    I understand that the coach and much of the broader public has accepted and even endorses pairing up McDavid and Draisaitl for big minutes. When you say it should be done in the name of winning the toughest minutes, I feel like that statement makes it clear that you should instead focus on winning the easier minutes instead. This means not playing our two superstars together. A few of the many good reasons to play the three centres on their own lines are to spread out scoring, decrease their workload and increase line stability.

    My favourite bit of Georgexs latest excellent research is that he showed the weakest part of St.Louis’ forward group to be their top line forwards, while they had quite strong scorers through forwards 4-12. Although giving McDavid a Khaira, a Neal or a Puljujarvi would reduce his numbers vs Draisaitl, the improvement in their numbers is a valuable driver of team success.

    The most painful part of last season was watching two veteran coaches play those kids to death.I showed earlier this summer that Mcdavid had played fourteen more entire games of minutes than the average top line forward by the end of the season. McDavid barely managed to run a 50% goals share after a terrible end to the 18/19 season, even though he was playing with Draisaitl. Just like rest for goalies, a player can only play so many minutes in a season, and I would like the best minutes to be saved for last – both in a game and in a season.

    In order to judge line stability, the last two seasons I have calculated the average percentage of time that each team’s top two centres spent with their two most common line mates. The Oilers have ranked 30th and 31st by this metric the last two years, which helped the correlation of season points rank and line stability to 0.55 in 17/18 and 0.52 in 18/19. Three centres with consistent wingers can roll, and only need to be taken apart to push at the end of a game and on special teams. I understand that experimenting has to happen to find chemistry, but McDavid-Khaira, Draisaitl-Chiasson and Nugent-Hopkins-Kassian are three pairs that have outscored their minutes thus far.

    We have seen what 25 minutes a night of McDavid-Draisaitl looks like to its brutal extreme last season through two coaches, and I don’t want to see it again. I want to see some innovative coaching that can allow for constant speed and pressure through all three zones. I want to see our players finish the season playing their best hockey of the year. This got long, and I will change nothing, but this is what I think needs to happen for consistent success.

    Well I don’t think you’re going to get your wish. Tippet was on the NHL network on SiriusXM an stated explicitly that he wants to play McDavid and Drai together, at least to start the season.

  90. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: Well I don’t think you’re going to get your wish. Tippet was on the NHL network on SiriusXM an stated explicitly that he wants to play McDavid and Drai together, at least to start the season.

    That is disappointing.

  91. hags9k says:

    I look at the forwards and see 10/12 legit NHL players.
    The goalie and backup are good from where I sit.
    The D is still young but oh my it’s never been deeper.
    Connor McDavid.
    I think this team is into the playoffs and making noise.

  92. Revolved says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Coaches say a lot of things. I would still give them all the Powerplay time and the last five even strength minutes of the game together, but it’s clearly not been a strategy for success when deployed from the outset.

  93. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965: Well I don’t think you’re going to get your wish. Tippet was on the NHL network on SiriusXM an stated explicitly that he wants to play McDavid and Drai together, at least to start the season.

    And he wants to try Neal with Nuge at first.

  94. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

    Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

    Pretty sure I’ll read them again.

    Sorry, OP. It was just meant to be a very gentle tease because I think you’ve mentioned Lagesson as the surprise package every day over the summer. For what it’s worth, I really hope you’re correct. I like Lagesson tons and I’d love it if your projection comes true: 3LD by season’s end, moving to 2LD in the next two years. Nothing would make me happier!

    (Actually, that’s not true, there are definitely things that would make me happier. But it would make the long list).

  95. Revolved says:

    If we are going to win with Draisaitl-McDavid and Nugnt-Hopkins-Neal as pairs, then Haas-Khaira and Marody-Gagner are going to have to learn to trap like crazy to win their minutes. I don’t see how the top line avoids 25 minutes a night either, which will be a disaster by the end of the season.

  96. jp says:

    pts2pndr: Thanks LT. As I remember they were second pairing and Lagesson actually played the right side.

    Training camp last year?

  97. Professor Q says:

    Maybe the pairing of Berglund with Broberg?

  98. JimmyV1965 says:

    Revolved:
    If we are going to win with Draisaitl-McDavid and Nugnt-Hopkins-Neal as pairs, then Haas-Khaira and Marody-Gagner are going to have to learn to trap like crazy to win their minutes. I don’t see how the top line avoids 25 minutes a night either, which will be a disaster by the end of the season.

    Unless some kind of miracle happens and a bunch of castoffs suddenly shine, this team does not have enough good wingers to run the big three at centre. I also don’t understand why playing McDavid and Drai together means they have to play 25 minutes.

  99. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: Unless some kind of miracle happens and a bunch of castoffs suddenly shine, this team does not have enoughgood wingers to run the big three at centre. I also don’t understand why playing McDavid and Drai together means they have to play 25 minutes.

    Because their combined $21 mil cap hit represents about 45% of the budget a balanced team would spend on all of their forwards? 😉

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