The Season to Come

by Lowetide

My reasonable expectations for last season listed 32 names, and a goal differential (249-229) of +20. The actual factual total (229-271) was -42. Humility walks beside me every day. On merit.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

RE 2019-20 GP (FORWARDS)

I’ll post the scoring numbers in a series of articles at The Athletic beginning early September, but this gives us a nice discussion point in terms of who makes the team, who gets recalled during the year, and just how cloudy things are at center.

The top four left wingers and top four right wingers are shy, so I have several players (Benson, Gambardella, Jurco, Yamamoto) pushing up, starting mid-season with Benson. Over at center, it takes even less time for Marody to find his way into the lineup.

I didn’t list Kyle Brodziak, that may change if we get some good news on him entering camp. Sam Gagner is on the No. 4 line but could spend significant time playing in the heart of the order.

I will tell you that 12 forwards spend at least some time on the top two lines based on my model, an extreme amount of churn.

By the end of the season, I have Marody, Benson and Yamamoto playing in the top 9F. That should tell you what I think is going to happen at the trade deadline.

RE 2019-20 GP (DEFENSE)

The Oilers are approaching a period of transition on defense, it actually began the day of Andrej Sekera’s buyout. I expect we’ll see a laundry list of blue at No. 2 RD and it’s possible we see a trade if two of the kids establish themselves.

All of Caleb Jones, William Lagesson and Ethan Bear will be in the final year of their entry deals. I know some of you have their career trajectory locked in but for me I think all three are worth auditioning this coming season. An informed opinion next spring is vital.

As is the case with the forwards, I think the trade deadline may bring more clarity.

PRONMAN’S RANKINGS

Corey Pronman has published most of his rankings for 2019 summer, with only the top 10 to go. Edmonton remains. This represents an impressive spike (No. 22 last summer) and I think it’s on merit. The Oilers have a nice pipeline now, especially on defense where there is quality front to back (Jones NHL ready, Bouchard close, Broberg matriculating). Even the strength and quality of the forwards (Marody, Benson, Yamamoto, Lavoie) is improving. I think the Oilers will grab a sniper in the top 10 next summer and at that point might have one of the best farm systems in the league.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the weekend on TSN1260. Our tennis insider John Horn previews the U.S. Open and Bianca Andreescu’s path to the final four (or better). Plus Hernan Salas and Matt Iwanyk preview the Eskimos-Blue Bombers clash tonight at Commonwealth. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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defmn

JimmyV1965: Unless some kind of miracle happens and a bunch of castoffs suddenly shine, this team does not have enoughgood wingers to run the big three at centre. I also don’t understand why playing McDavid and Drai together means they have to play 25 minutes.

Because their combined $21 mil cap hit represents about 45% of the budget a balanced team would spend on all of their forwards? 😉

JimmyV1965

Revolved:
If we are going to win with Draisaitl-McDavid and Nugnt-Hopkins-Neal as pairs, then Haas-Khaira and Marody-Gagner are going to have to learn to trap like crazy to win their minutes. I don’t see how the top line avoids 25 minutes a night either, which will be a disaster by the end of the season.

Unless some kind of miracle happens and a bunch of castoffs suddenly shine, this team does not have enough good wingers to run the big three at centre. I also don’t understand why playing McDavid and Drai together means they have to play 25 minutes.

Professor Q

Maybe the pairing of Berglund with Broberg?

jp

pts2pndr: Thanks LT. As I remember they were second pairing and Lagesson actually played the right side.

Training camp last year?

Revolved

If we are going to win with Draisaitl-McDavid and Nugnt-Hopkins-Neal as pairs, then Haas-Khaira and Marody-Gagner are going to have to learn to trap like crazy to win their minutes. I don’t see how the top line avoids 25 minutes a night either, which will be a disaster by the end of the season.

Yeti

OriginalPouzar: Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

Pretty sure I’ll read them again.

Sorry, OP. It was just meant to be a very gentle tease because I think you’ve mentioned Lagesson as the surprise package every day over the summer. For what it’s worth, I really hope you’re correct. I like Lagesson tons and I’d love it if your projection comes true: 3LD by season’s end, moving to 2LD in the next two years. Nothing would make me happier!

(Actually, that’s not true, there are definitely things that would make me happier. But it would make the long list).

Professor Q

JimmyV1965: Well I don’t think you’re going to get your wish. Tippet was on the NHL network on SiriusXM an stated explicitly that he wants to play McDavid and Drai together, at least to start the season.

And he wants to try Neal with Nuge at first.

Revolved

JimmyV1965,

Coaches say a lot of things. I would still give them all the Powerplay time and the last five even strength minutes of the game together, but it’s clearly not been a strategy for success when deployed from the outset.

hags9k

I look at the forwards and see 10/12 legit NHL players.
The goalie and backup are good from where I sit.
The D is still young but oh my it’s never been deeper.
Connor McDavid.
I think this team is into the playoffs and making noise.

defmn

JimmyV1965: Well I don’t think you’re going to get your wish. Tippet was on the NHL network on SiriusXM an stated explicitly that he wants to play McDavid and Drai together, at least to start the season.

That is disappointing.

JimmyV1965

Revolved:
Woodguy,
Georgexs,

I understand that the coach and much of the broader public has accepted and even endorses pairing up McDavid and Draisaitl for big minutes. When you say it should be done in the name of winning the toughest minutes, I feel like that statement makes it clear that you should instead focus on winning the easier minutes instead. This means not playing our two superstars together. A few of the many good reasons to play the three centres on their own lines are to spread out scoring, decrease their workload and increase line stability.

My favourite bit of Georgexs latest excellent research is that he showed the weakest part of St.Louis’ forward group to be their top line forwards, while they had quite strong scorers through forwards 4-12. Although giving McDavid a Khaira, a Neal or a Puljujarvi would reduce his numbers vs Draisaitl, the improvement in their numbers is a valuable driver of team success.

The most painful part of last season was watching two veteran coaches play those kids to death.I showed earlier this summer that Mcdavid had played fourteen more entire games of minutes than the average top line forward by the end of the season. McDavid barely managed to run a 50% goals share after a terrible end to the 18/19 season, even though he was playing with Draisaitl. Just like rest for goalies, a player can only play so many minutes in a season, and I would like the best minutes to be saved for last – both in a game and in a season.

In order to judge line stability, the last two seasons I have calculated the average percentage of time that each team’s top two centres spent with their two most common line mates. The Oilers have ranked 30th and 31st by this metric the last two years, which helped the correlation of season points rank and line stability to 0.55 in 17/18 and 0.52 in 18/19. Three centres with consistent wingers can roll, and only need to be taken apart to push at the end of a game and on special teams. I understand that experimenting has to happen to find chemistry, but McDavid-Khaira, Draisaitl-Chiasson and Nugent-Hopkins-Kassian are three pairs that have outscored their minutes thus far.

We have seen what 25 minutes a night of McDavid-Draisaitl looks like to its brutal extreme last season through two coaches, and I don’t want to see it again. I want to see some innovative coaching that can allow for constant speed and pressure through all three zones. I want to see our players finish the season playing their best hockey of the year. This got long, and I will change nothing, but this is what I think needs to happen for consistent success.

Well I don’t think you’re going to get your wish. Tippet was on the NHL network on SiriusXM an stated explicitly that he wants to play McDavid and Drai together, at least to start the season.

pts2pndr

Lowetide:
Lagesson played at the WJ in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, Klefbom played wj in 2011-12. He did play 2014-15 WHC but Lagesson was still U20.

Thanks LT. As I remember they were second pairing and Lagesson actually played the right side.

pts2pndr

jp: I think you’re mistaken. Klefbom is 3 yrs older and last played in the World Jrs in 2012. Lagesson played in 2014 and 2016.

It could have been worlds but I have seen them paired for team Sweden.

OriginalPouzar

I can’t see them ever having played together.

CallighenMan

jp: I think you’re mistaken. Klefbom is 3 yrs older and last played in the World Jrs in 2012. Lagesson played in 2014 and 2016.

I think it may have been in a recent WC? 2 years ago? … too lazy and full of wine to check. hic!

jp

pts2pndr: Lagessonwas part of a Swedish defensive pairing with Klefbom in the world junior championship in 15/16 I believe. He will be a fan favourite in Edmonton. He plays a very similar style as Larsson but with slightly better passing and offensive acumen in my opinion.

I think you’re mistaken. Klefbom is 3 yrs older and last played in the World Jrs in 2012. Lagesson played in 2014 and 2016.

Georgexs

On yesterday’s post, I wanted to add that, because I was looking at just one facet of the game (the offensive output of a team’s forwards), I shouldn’t expect to find a feature that’s highly predictive of a team’s chances of qualifying for the playoffs. I was excluding defensive and goalie play altogether, and I was also leaving out the offensive contribution of defensemen. If just one part of the game disproportionately dictated outcomes, then it would likely be obvious to everyone. Every team would know what to chase, they’d all chase it, and the differences between the teams on this one part of the game would gradually narrow. As the difference in the feature narrows, the feature would become less useful in predicting outcomes.

Having said that, the top 6 rule I was investigating did do OK (60% accuracy) compared to making the playoffs in the previous season rule (62.5% accuracy) over the past 6 seasons.

Once again, here’s a breakdown on how successful teams were over the past six seasons in making the playoffs based on the number of top 6 F’s they started the season with:

# of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

2, 4, 0, .00
3, 8, 5, .63
4, 21, 12, .57
5, 53, 21, .40
6, 46, 24, .52
7, 40, 26, .65
8, 10, 8, .80

Knowing the Oilers will be starting 19-20 with 4 top 6 F’s (based on total points in 18-19), the success rate of teams with just 3 and 4 top 6 F’s caught my eye.

Intuitively, you’d expect to find that as you add top 6 F’s, you improve your chances for making the playoffs. But the above numbers suggest that’s not the case, that teams with just 4 top 6 F’s have done better in terms of qualifying for the playoffs than teams with 5 or 6 top 6 F’s.

First thought is you find weird things in small samples. Extend the horizon.

I did that. I went back to 97-98. Here are the results:

# of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

1, 6, 1, .17
2, 13, 3, .23
3, 34, 15, .44
4, 92, 46, .50
5, 157, 82, .52
6, 150, 88, .59
7, 99, 53, .54
8, 33, 25, .76
9, 9, 7, .78

Now, apart from the hiccup with 7 top 6 F’s, it seems that, over the past 21 seasons, as you add more top 6 F’s, you improve your chances of making the playoffs. More data is starting to make the pattern clearer.

But I also pointed out that qualifying for the playoffs has become more of a crapshoot in the past few seasons. Here again are the number of teams that made the playoffs in the past six seasons that also made the playoffs in the previous season:

13, 11
14, 9
15, 11
16, 9
17, 9
18, 11

The numbers stretching back to 2000 have all been in the double digits. It’s only in recent seasons that we’ve seen the phenomenon of 7 non-playoff teams from the previous season qualify for the playoffs.

So maybe I shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the recent success of teams that were light on 6F’s… I’ll have a closer look at who those teams were and how they managed to qualify for the playoffs.

I also wanted to share the numbers going back to 97-98 when looking at the number of 3F’s and the number of 9F’s.

# of top 3 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

0, 40, 14, .35
1, 89, 28, .31
2, 155, 83, .54
3, 166, 97, .58
4, 103, 65, .63
5, 36, 29, .81
6, 4, 4, 1.00

A pretty smooth pattern. The Oilers have 3 top 3 F’s this year. Historically, teams in that category have done significantly better than average in qualifying for the playoffs. Remarkably, the Oilers had 4 top 3 F’s to start 2013-14 (Hall, Gagner, Ebs, Yak) and 2014-15 (Hall, RNH, Ebs, Perron).

Here are the results for the top 9 F’s.

# of top 9 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

3, 3, 0, .00
4, 6, 3, .50
5, 15, 8, .53
6, 63, 27, .43
7, 135, 68, .50
8, 144, 82, .57
9, 130, 74, .57
10, 64, 37, .58
11, 23, 14, .61
12, 9, 6, .67
13, 1, 1, .00

Some noisy data early but seems consistent with the idea that having more top 9 F’s helps a team’s chances of making the playoffs.

Considering the 3 groups (3F, 6F, 9F), and when you look at a sufficient amount of data, it seems that starting a season with more forwards who’ve generated offense in the previous season helps your chances of making the playoffs in this season.

OriginalPouzar

I agree, he does play a similar style to Larsson in alot of ways – he is an aggressive and mean defender although not quite as mean as Larsson – Larsson is a tough SOB to play against.

At the same time, his skating is quite a bit better than Larsson’s and I put his passing well above Larsson’s – Lagesson is a very solid puck mover. No, he’s not Bear or Bouchard or Sammy but quite adept in his own way.

That may not translate to the NHL level, of course – we’ll know more in a few months.

I call him the “new age Adam Larsson” – with his good mobility and transition game to go along with the plus defending, he’s built for today’s game.

pts2pndr

Decidedly Skeptical Fan:
Lowetide,

The “fitting in well with all of the other skill sets on the roster” is the part that concerns me most. That is an area where management/coaching has not distinguished themselves in the past. It’s an area flush with opportunity for self inflicted wounds. Let’s hope that the new regime focuses on player strengths rather than fixating on perceived weaknesses. Let’s hope that the coaching staff can adapt scheme to fit the roster rather than dogmatically insisting square pegs must fit into round holes. That is the only way we will see meaningful near term improvement. As you are fond of saying … and I agree, we wait.

Lagesson was part of a Swedish defensive pairing with Klefbom in the world junior championship in 15/16 I believe. He will be a fan favourite in Edmonton. He plays a very similar style as Larsson but with slightly better passing and offensive acumen in my opinion.

Scungilli Slushy

OriginalPouzar: Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

Pretty sure I’ll ready them again.

They’re having a poke at you , relax, have some fun back.

We’re here every day .

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar: Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

Pretty sure I’ll ready them again.

Pretty sure you are correct on all counts.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

Lowetide,

The “fitting in well with all of the other skill sets on the roster” is the part that concerns me most. That is an area where management/coaching has not distinguished themselves in the past. It’s an area flush with opportunity for self inflicted wounds. Let’s hope that the new regime focuses on player strengths rather than fixating on perceived weaknesses. Let’s hope that the coaching staff can adapt scheme to fit the roster rather than dogmatically insisting square pegs must fit into round holes. That is the only way we will see meaningful near term improvement. As you are fond of saying … and I agree, we wait.

OriginalPouzar

DecidedlySkepticalFan: Perhaps Yeti just wants to thank you for making him aware of this … he apparently missed out on the dozen or so previous posts where you have raved about Mssr. Lagesson. I guess we will have to wait until the preseason games begin to see if William is legit or not.

Quite confident I’ve read the vast majority of regular posters repeat their positions on player and, well, all things Oilers numerous times over.

Quite certain I know who thinks Yamamoto will always be hurt, Brett Connolly would be a legit top 6 player, Darnell Nurse has higher trade value than ice value, Persson should play 2RD with a veteran, etc.

Pretty sure I’ll read them again.

Decidedly Skeptical Fan

OriginalPouzar: and?

Perhaps Yeti just wants to thank you for making him aware of this … he apparently missed out on the dozen or so previous posts where you have raved about Mssr. Lagesson. I guess we will have to wait until the preseason games begin to see if William is legit or not.

Reja

Scungilli Slushy: Tippet has discussed his system when he was hired. The D and Gs are going to have a much better time this seasons.

McLelland apparently had them playing a man on man system, the hardest for young teams and players.

Thus Nurse chasing to the blue line, opponents getting left completely alone in front of the net after a breakdown, and multiple shot attempts before help arrived if it wasn’t already too late.

I believe his system (which Hitch didn’t seem to change much probably because that can be difficult if there isn’t practice time) also lead to the D not having enough outlet options, so lots of glass and out, lots of stretch passes.

Player quality had some to do with that, but I don’t feel the system fit the available players.

Tippet said he wants players to take the good ice and leave bad ice , basically control the middle and
play zone which most teams do now because if obstruction is being called it’s really hard to play man on man.

Tippet also said he likes the team to play as 5 man units and move the puck up that way, options. If he can get them playing that way, I expect we’ll see a lot of players looking more like they have a clue, opponents being kept to the outside and much better forward transition.

We should see less multiple chances against, and the team being better at keeping the ozone instead of giving up possession because there aren’t players in place to work with.

I also hope we see better and more seamless line changes as I feel they have been clumsy for years.

The Isles and Blues showed how powerful a simple system and 23 guys buying in can be without rosterchanges, and it all starts with the coaches. Build team morale and build individuals by putting them in a place to succeed and with a clear mandate, something Tip also said he tries to do.

I’m so excited to watch Tippett’s system. We’re going to see way less back dooring of Nurse and company for the alone in the fricking slot make your Goalie look bad goals.

norm_klassen

Laggesons 5 on 5 play was the best in the bake right? He should be seasoned enough to make the team . There is going to be growing pains with all our AHL defensemen it’s just the nature of the position.
Think of it as a apprenticeship and identify which ones you want to spend time training at the NHL level

norm_klassen

Scungilli Slushy,

I hope he can weave some magic. Just having everybody not look so confused on what there doing out there would help . I hope the tippet effect leads to improvement

Reja

OriginalPouzar: The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

He’s the sleeper of the prospects could quietly end up having a very long career in the NHL.

Reja

OriginalPouzar: There is a chance I’ve never heard commentator glow so much about a prospect as Button with Broberg at the Summer Showcase this year – even after Sweden had stopped playing he was still talking about him.

I’m pretty sure Button knew Holland was drafting Broberg which makes me believe they talk ( OBC among GM’s) Watch the slagging of the Oilers really toned down from Button and others.

Crazy Pedestrian

rickithebear:
Button glows about Brobergs forward skating.
In other words his ability to abandon HD area quicker than other D prospects.

I was frustrated how many times Broberg was the 4th skater back in His DZ at summer showcase.
That is not even re-establishing the 2D -1G structure in the real DZone the HD area.
Just brutal HD area def coverage.

LT: mentioning Jaxon Bellamy as a Rookie Camp option.
I could only hope this to come true.
They sign him and Lagesson slots into roster spot like Holland hinted at.
Bellamy would be our best HDarea def prospect period.
Best cup core roster prospect.

I know what you’re trying to say and all, but why does “abandoning the HDarea” matter when the puck is on your stick rushing into the OZ? Think more McDavid and less Russell.

Edit: unless you’re trying to build a team that plays trap hockey… (barf)

Scungilli Slushy

norm_klassen:
Any chance this year we play a more boring defensive system? Maybe nurse and k bomb finally get it defensively as they sit with over 300 Nhl games each? Its gonna be a up and down winter that’s for sure

Tippet has discussed his system when he was hired. The D and Gs are going to have a much better time this seasons.

McLelland apparently had them playing a man on man system, the hardest for young teams and players.

Thus Nurse chasing to the blue line, opponents getting left completely alone in front of the net after a breakdown, and multiple shot attempts before help arrived if it wasn’t already too late.

I believe his system (which Hitch didn’t seem to change much probably because that can be difficult if there isn’t practice time) also lead to the D not having enough outlet options, so lots of glass and out, lots of stretch passes.

Player quality had some to do with that, but I don’t feel the system fit the available players.

Tippet said he wants players to take the good ice and leave bad ice , basically control the middle and
play zone which most teams do now because if obstruction is being called it’s really hard to play man on man.

Tippet also said he likes the team to play as 5 man units and move the puck up that way, options. If he can get them playing that way, I expect we’ll see a lot of players looking more like they have a clue, opponents being kept to the outside and much better forward transition.

We should see less multiple chances against, and the team being better at keeping the ozone instead of giving up possession because there aren’t players in place to work with.

I also hope we see better and more seamless line changes as I feel they have been clumsy for years.

The Isles and Blues showed how powerful a simple system and 23 guys buying in can be without roster changes, and it all starts with the coaches. Build team morale and build individuals by putting them in a place to succeed and with a clear mandate, something Tip also said he tries to do.

OriginalPouzar

Yeti: Really? This is the first I’ve heard of it.

and?

rickithebear

Button glows about Brobergs forward skating.
In other words his ability to abandon HD area quicker than other D prospects.

I was frustrated how many times Broberg was the 4th skater back in His DZ at summer showcase.
That is not even re-establishing the 2D -1G structure in the real DZone the HD area.
Just brutal HD area def coverage.

LT: mentioning Jaxon Bellamy as a Rookie Camp option.
I could only hope this to come true.
They sign him and Lagesson slots into roster spot like Holland hinted at.
Bellamy would be our best HDarea def prospect period.
Best cup core roster prospect.

rickithebear

Top EVTOI off pairs above or near Mcdavid – Drai EVTOI Numbers.
It was a re-education relative to past pair numbers.

Schiefle – Wheeler 1241 EVTOI
Crosby – Guetzel 1170
Marner – Tavares 1131
Monahan – Gaudreau 1128
Marchesault – Karlsson 1088
Kopitar – Brown 1062
McKinnon – Rantanen 1056
Danaukt – Gallagher 955
Barkov – dandanov 913
Seguin – Radulov 911
Dubois – Atkinson 910
Drai – Mcdavid 888
Eichel – Skinner. 880
Kucherov – point 867
Stall – Zucker 830
Couture – Meir 822
Bergeron – Marchand 791
Backstrom – Oshie 785
Nelson – Lee 777
Johansen – forsberg 776
O,Reilly – Tarasenko 766
Krejci – debrusk 748
Giroux – couturier 739
Zibanegad – Krueger 724
Peterson – Boeser 672
Zajac – Coleman 670
Hischier – Palameri 639

Hischier – healthy Hall 17-18 848

RNH had 318 of Chiasson as top W when playing forward.
700 – 800 min of Neal might be very nice.

1150 is avg TOI for the top 5 EVTOI pairs in the game.
With each other
Draisaitl 1.62 evg/60
Mcdavid 1.62 evg/60
Without
Mcdavid .73 evg/60
Draisaitl .71 evg/60

professor Q how many minutes do we give them together.
1150 7 – 3 evg = 4 more evg each; +8 g; 78.5% of Mcdavid EVTOI
1250 19.5 evg – 8.5 = 5.5 more evg each; +11g; 85.3%
1350 26 evg – 11.6 = 7.2 evg more each; +14g; 92.2%
1450 30.4 evg – 13.5 = 8.5 evg more each; +17g; 99.0%

Is the Mcdavid and Draisaitl passing to other players evg/60 boost more important than than evg resulting from increasing Drai time from 60.6% of Mcd EVTOI.

Drai 3C Minutes maybe a huge need if Haas, Gagner, Khaira, Brodziak 3C minutes do not work out.
Then Drai getting 60.0% (595) of starting 3C EVTOI maybe important.

Tough choice.

OriginalPouzar

Reja: I can’t stand Craig the Flames shrill Button. Now that Holland is in E town you won’t hear him flapping negatively on every player in Edmonton. I hope Bouchard makes him eat a shit sandwich starting this year.

There is a chance I’ve never heard commentator glow so much about a prospect as Button with Broberg at the Summer Showcase this year – even after Sweden had stopped playing he was still talking about him.

OriginalPouzar

BruceMcCurdy: Technically Persson burned thru his 1-year ELC last year, when he was loaned back to Vaxjo for his 24-year-old season. This year he is on his second contract, so no bonuses, just a straight $1 million ticket.

1-year, 1-way, $1 million — the classic “show me” contract.

Got it right this time Bruce…….. just kidding with ya.

pts2pndr

Lowetide: He hasn’t played 70 games in a season and I faded pretty much all of the forwards not named 97, 29, 93 Neal, Gagner and Granlund. we don’t know how this coach will react to Khaira, or Cave or Gambardella. He could also get traded at the deadline.

I think that if the Oilers are out of the playoffs by the trade deadline there will be a blood letting of sorts. The remaining games will then be used as a player screening from the farm team to see which players have potential for next year. Your games played could very well be spot on. I am hopeful that Tippet is able to build a competitive team with his current group of players. He is the closest thing to a players coach that we have since Krueger. Competitive in my definition for this year would be for the team to still have a realistic chance to make the playoffs at the trade deadline. I also expect to see at least one or two of the left shot D being moved for help elsewhere. My picks would be Russel and or Jones or both.

McSorley33

Darryl8843,

If we draft in the top 10 next year that would be extremely disappointing to me. That would likely mean meaningless games in February once again.
**************************************************************************************
Scans list of projected wingers for McDavid, Drai and RNH…..throws up slighty in mouth.

“If” we draft top ten next year?

On the bright side, we will be in line to draft -another – LHD to augment Kassian and Chiasson.

Yeti

OriginalPouzar: The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

Really? This is the first I’ve heard of it.

Revolved

Woodguy,
Georgexs,

I understand that the coach and much of the broader public has accepted and even endorses pairing up McDavid and Draisaitl for big minutes. When you say it should be done in the name of winning the toughest minutes, I feel like that statement makes it clear that you should instead focus on winning the easier minutes instead. This means not playing our two superstars together. A few of the many good reasons to play the three centres on their own lines are to spread out scoring, decrease their workload and increase line stability.

My favourite bit of Georgexs latest excellent research is that he showed the weakest part of St.Louis’ forward group to be their top line forwards, while they had quite strong scorers through forwards 4-12. Although giving McDavid a Khaira, a Neal or a Puljujarvi would reduce his numbers vs Draisaitl, the improvement in their numbers is a valuable driver of team success.

The most painful part of last season was watching two veteran coaches play those kids to death. I showed earlier this summer that Mcdavid had played fourteen more entire games of minutes than the average top line forward by the end of the season. McDavid barely managed to run a 50% goals share after a terrible end to the 18/19 season, even though he was playing with Draisaitl. Just like rest for goalies, a player can only play so many minutes in a season, and I would like the best minutes to be saved for last – both in a game and in a season.

In order to judge line stability, the last two seasons I have calculated the average percentage of time that each team’s top two centres spent with their two most common line mates. The Oilers have ranked 30th and 31st by this metric the last two years, which helped the correlation of season points rank and line stability to 0.55 in 17/18 and 0.52 in 18/19. Three centres with consistent wingers can roll, and only need to be taken apart to push at the end of a game and on special teams. I understand that experimenting has to happen to find chemistry, but McDavid-Khaira, Draisaitl-Chiasson and Nugent-Hopkins-Kassian are three pairs that have outscored their minutes thus far.

We have seen what 25 minutes a night of McDavid-Draisaitl looks like to its brutal extreme last season through two coaches, and I don’t want to see it again. I want to see some innovative coaching that can allow for constant speed and pressure through all three zones. I want to see our players finish the season playing their best hockey of the year. This got long, and I will change nothing, but this is what I think needs to happen for consistent success.

OriginalPouzar

geowal: “Fine” and “not hurting” is, well, fine for the 4th lines if All of the 2nd and 3rd line forward bets pay off. Given that is unlikely, yes, you’d like the 4th to have outscoring capability since lines 2 and 3 don’t.

I don’t agree.

I want a fourth line that can help the team by doing more than not losing momentum or not giving it back. A good fourth line that can spend time in the offensive zone helps the team in many ways including allowing more rest for Drai and McDavid.

Having some real NHL players like Khaira and Gagner on the fourth line between a skill guy like Marody (if he’s NHL caliber) has the potential to impact that game alot more than the Cave’s and Currie’s of the world.

OriginalPouzar

MaterialElvis: I won’t be too disappointed because a) I’m not expecting them to make the playoffs, and b) the 2020 draft class looks outstanding (and the Oilers desperately need more forward talent in their system).

One potential positive of all the 1 year contracts is, if they are going to be selling at the deadline, they could potentially stock up on picks – of course, the value of most of these guys would probably be a mid to low round pick but more picks is still a good thing.

You also never know, maybe Gagner is scoring at 50 point pace and/or Chiasson at a 20G pace and we could get something in the lower-middle rounds.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar: The “surprise” for this season is going to be Willie Lagesson – won’t be a surprise to me though.

Ditto!

OriginalPouzar

godot:
Joel Persson is in the last year of his ELC also.

——————————————————————
It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

Not quite true – his ELC was one-year and ran last year. He re-signed for $1M for one-year on a one-way contract.

He’s still waiver exempt though.

rickithebear

In the Ben Johnson documentary the head of US doping testing said they took 200 gold medal winners B samples from past Summer Olympics.
Tested them with New technology.
Said None of them would want the results released.

In the Dublin inquiry.
Charlie Francis pointed out that 65 US champions were going to the same juice doctor as Ben.
Dubin said we are not dealing with outside issues.
Just our own.
Dumb Fuck!

The original Icurus could have been the dubin inquiry burying the entire US Summer Olympic program as well.

The Russian Netflix movie could have been Icarus 2.

pts2pndr

OriginalPouzar:
Looks like Jesse is practicing with Karpat

Karpat dann Kaputt!