Oilers rookie camp roster 2019

Last year the Oilers invited 27 prospects to rookie camp, many of the older variety. It seemed Edmonton wasn’t interested in bringing in true ‘rookies’ but rather players who would be arriving for main camp anyway.

Older players who attended camp one year ago included Nolan Vesey, Luke Esposito, Logan Day, William Lagesson, Joe Gambardella, Dave Gust and Tyler Vesel. Will we see more of the same this year?

The Athletic!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

2019 ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER (A GUESS)

1 Dylan Wells, 21. He was at this camp in 2016, 2017 and 2018, so may not be on the list. Oilers site does have some rookie names, no goalies, and you’d think the team would want three. He outlasted Nick Ellis and Keven Bouchard, who were his competition at the first one.

2 Stuart Skinner, 20. This will be Skinner’s third rookie camp, time flies when you’re having fun. He had a long and winding season in the minors but finished strong in the playoffs. Maybe he’ll spike this season. One of three Oilers goalies born in 1998 (Wells, Konovalov).

3 Olivier Rodrigue, 19. This will be his second rookie camp, he is the youngest goalie prospect in the system.

LEFT DEFENSE

1 Caleb Jones, 22. He may not attend rookie camp, as Jones could make the big club in a big season. I have him here because of numbers. Edmonton needs some established blue.

2 William Lagesson, 23. Same reason as Jones, Lagesson has surely done enough to graduate from this tournament. That said, the Oilers traditionally have nine defensemen in rookie camp.

3 Dmitri Samorukov, 20. This will be his third rookie camp, but a lot has changed since last year. Samorukov is going to have a lot of eyes on him at this and main camp.

4 Jaxon Bellamy, 18. Big junior (6.03, 180) who is mobile and can move the puck, he is an interesting prospect.

5 Ethan Cap, 19. Edmonton Oil Kings defender plays an intelligent game and brings good size.

RIGHT DEFENSE

1 Evan Bouchard, 19. He will be at his second rookie camp, having provided the previous event with many of its highlights (and an ‘oh my’ goal). He has a chance to make the big club.

2 Ethan Bear, 22. He has been here many times, but the injury last spring may mean Holland and company want to have an early look.

3 Logan Day, 24. Outstanding year with the Condors got him an NHL contract. He was also on the rookie roster last year.

4 Vincent Desharnais, 23. He’s on an AHL contract, the former Oilers draft pick had a solid college career with Providence.

CENTER

1 Cooper Marody, 22. He tore up the AHL as a rookie, suspect we see him in Edmonton for as much as half of the season. Skill needs skill, he could emerge as a complementary player on a prominent line.

2 Cam Hebig, 22. He started off very well, then faded for much of the AHL season. Lessons learned in year one can lead to improved performance.

3. Ryan McLeod, 19. There will be emphasis on speed at this year’s training camp, McLeod is a speed demon. He could surprise.

4. Beau Starrett, 23. College grad and Shane Starrett’s brother, he just signed an AHL deal. Huge forward, 6.05 and 215.

5 Luke Esposito, 25. He attended last year and emerged as a useful player at the AHL level. He might return.

LEFT WING

1 Tyler Benson, 21. Like Marody, this training camp is vital for Benson. Getting a head start on main camp is a good idea.

2 Joe Gambardella, 25. He might skip over this year’s rookie camp, but if the organization isn’t inviting a bunch of rookies we could see him here.

3 Jakob Stukel, 22. He scored well after being recalled to Bakersfield and I’m looking forward to seeing him in camp.

4 Nolan Vesey, 23. He needs playing time.

5 Liam Keeler, 18. Edmonton Oil Kings winger gets an NHL invite.

RIGHT WING

1 Kailer Yamamoto, 20. A big season for the young winger, he needs to show everyone he can score (it’s likely) in Bakersfield and stay healthy.

2 Kirill Maksimov, 20. Excited to see him impact rookie camp and then see how they use him in main camp. He doesn’t have draft pedigree but does own a terrific release. Edmonton needs first-shot scorers.

3 Ostap Safin, 20. Injury has derailed him. Oilers will want to see if he can play.

4 Raphael Lavoie, 18. Sniper from the QMJHL will arrive in rookie camp with some real buzz.

If we see some more non-roster additions, safe to delete more established names like Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Ethan Bear, Joe Gambardella and Patrick Russell. Otherwise, we may see a repeat of 2018, with very few kids who are not under Edmonton’s control coming to camp.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll chat Oilers and CFL, plus Brady Henderson from ESPN to discuss the Seattle Seahawks. Jeremy Cummins from #YEGTalks will chat about the 24 hour softball game that raises money for local mental health initiatives. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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121 Responses to "Oilers rookie camp roster 2019"

  1. ArmchairGM says:

    You don’t think Lavoie or any of the other 2019 picks will be invited?

  2. jp says:

    ArmchairGM:
    You don’t think Lavoie or any of the other 2019 picks will be invited?

    Good catch on Lavoie. He’d be the only one though, right? The others are all in European leagues or committed to college for 19-20.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oh, man, I can’t wait for rookie camp and then the two games against the flames rookies and then, of course, the Condors season.

    I can say, with full confidence, the AHL TV membership is 100% worth it. I think it was something like US$60 last year for a one-team season pass. So good.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Which rookie camp attendees will see NHL games this year?

    Almost locks: Jones

    Essentially locks: Lagesson, Benson, Marody

    Likely: Bouchard, Bear, Yamamoto

    Unlikely but, maybe: Samorukov, Maksimov

    Very unlikely but you never know: McLeod

  5. dessert1111 says:

    Do we know when the first day of rookie camp is?

  6. DieHard says:

    Off topic but fans here have noted that Benson’s skating is an issue. Just curious, is it the same type of issue that affects Gagner? Is he Gagner 2.0?

  7. stevebergeron97 says:

    What about Lavoie?

  8. defmn says:

    The first mention of rookie camp. The leaves must be starting to turn colour. 😉

  9. SwedishPoster says:

    As suggested by practice earlier this week BroBerglund is a pairing tonight when Skellefteå faces local rival Luleå for their second game of preseason. I won’t be able to watch tonight but they’re playing another local rival, second tier side Björklöven, tomorrow if they both are playing I’ll try to catch that one.
    Broberg has from what I understand been getting plenty of time practicing with one of the PP units as well and is looking good. Early signs are excellent for Brobergs draft +1 I must say with an emphasis on the word early ofc.

  10. JimmyV1965 says:

    Just read this comment and it resonated with me.

    “It’s a game where the impact of elite players and goalies is massive and everyone else barely matters. Teams focus on depth, but they shouldn’t. The focus should be on getting as many star players as you can.”

    I like what Holland has done this year, especially the Lucic trade, but we absolutely need a top six forward. The Chiasson money should have been saved to help pay for a top six forward.

    I get that our bottom six was historically bad last year. I just don’t think you improve the team meaningfully by focusing all your efforts on the least impactful players on the team.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ya I saw the tweet from the club and noticed 5 and 6 as a pairing.

    Hopefully they have a good game.

  12. gimme shelter says:

    Are there more non-roster non draftee invitees? Seems a small camp. Was it last year they invited Khaira’s brother? I like these sort of players because they add novelty and some surprises. Also added competition.

  13. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Just read this comment and it resonated with me.

    “It’s a game where the impact of elite players and goalies is massive and everyone else barely matters. Teams focus on depth, but they shouldn’t. The focus should be on getting as many star players as you can.”

    I like what Holland has done this year, especially the Lucic trade, but we absolutely need a top six forward. The Chiasson money should have been saved to help pay for a top six forward.

    I get that our bottom six was historically bad last year. I just don’t think you improve the team meaningfully by focusing all your efforts on the least impactful players on the team.

    If the least impactful players are bleeding away all of the gains made by the high end talent you have to fix the least impactful players.

    That this team needed to do that is a testament to the incompetence of the previous management imo because it should be the easiest part but the results last year clearly indicate that this was in need of repair.

    Top end talent requires more money, longer contracts and more astute talent judgement imo so while I would have been happy to see all the areas of weakness on this team addressed this summer I can understand why Holland chose to address the bottom end of the roster first.

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Just read this comment and it resonated with me.

    “It’s a game where the impact of elite players and goalies is massive and everyone else barely matters. Teams focus on depth, but they shouldn’t. The focus should be on getting as many star players as you can.”

    I like what Holland has done this year, especially the Lucic trade, but we absolutely need a top six forward. The Chiasson money should have been saved to help pay for a top six forward.

    I get that our bottom six was historically bad last year. I just don’t think you improve the team meaningfully by focusing all your efforts on the least impactful players on the team.

    Word.

  15. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: If the least impactful players are bleeding away all of the gains made by the high end talent you have to fix the least impactful players.

    That this team needed to do that is a testament to the incompetence of the previous management imo because it should be the easiest part but the results last year clearly indicate that this was in need of repair.

    Top end talent requires more money, longer contracts and more astute talent judgement imo so while I would have been happy to see all the areas of weakness on this team addressed this summer I can understand why Holland chose to address the bottom end of the roster first.

    I like what Holland has done with the bottom six. I also liked what Chia did last summer with the bottom six. They’re making small bets and you hope they turn out. We wait.

    If Holland didn’t sign Chiasson, he could have managed the cap and acquired a top six forward.

    I think a very under appreciated impact that comes from having such a weak top six is the consequences for rookies. I’ve mentioned this many times in the past, but a rookie or prospect shouldn’t be the second best player on a top two line. The rookie needs to be a passenger feeding off the efforts of the other two players.

    We’ve talked a lot about JP recently. It’s been clearly demonstrated that he played a lot of minutes with good centres. But the real issue was the wingers. Sure, it’s great to play a kid with RNH, but if the other player is Lucic or Chiasson, you’re asking the kid to do too much.

  16. Todd Macallan says:

    Broberg goes end to end and banks one off the defender to put Skelleftea up 1-0, video evidence on Twitter, fellow goes by @antonj85

  17. defmn says:

    JimmyV1965: I like what Holland has done with the bottom six.I also liked what Chia did last summer with the bottom six. They’re making small bets and you hope they turn out.We wait.

    If Holland didn’t sign Chiasson, he could have managed the cap and acquired a top six forward.

    I think a very under appreciated impact that comes from having such a weak top six is the consequences for rookies. I’ve mentioned this many times in the past, but a rookie or prospect shouldn’t be the second best player on a top two line. The rookie needs to be a passenger feeding off the efforts of the other two players.

    We’ve talked a lot about JP recently. It’s been clearly demonstrated that he played a lot of minutes with good centres. But the real issue was the wingers.Sure, it’s great to play a kid with RNH, but if the other player is Lucicor Chiasson, you’re asking the kid to do too much.

    Can’t disagree with any of that except for what might be my interpretation of your comment about Chiasson. I don’t think his signing impacted the acquisition of a top six guy. His $2.15 cap hit is a 3rd line salary with a $81.5 cap hit. I think it is wishful thinking that that money plus what is left could secure a top 6 winger as a UFA that would move the dial but it probably would have tied the money up for more than the 2 years of Chiasson’s contract.

  18. Woogie63 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Oh, man, I can’t wait for rookie camp and then the two games against the flames rookies and then, of course, the Condors season.

    I can say, with full confidence, the AHL TV membership is 100% worth it.I think it was something like US$60 last year for a one-team season pass.So good.

    AHL TV for the Condors
    DZON for KHL
    How can we follow the SHL

  19. Side says:

    Woogie63:
    How can we follow the SHL

    Just look for SwedishPoster posts.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    defmn: Can’t disagree with any of that except for what might be my interpretation of your comment about Chiasson. I don’t think his signing impacted the acquisition of a top six guy. His $2.15 cap hit is a 3rd line salary with a $81.5 cap hit. I think it is wishful thinking that that money plus what is left could secure a top 6 winger as a UFA that would move the dial but it probably would have tied the money up for more than the 2 years of Chiasson’s contract.

    I actually don’t have an issue with the Chiasson contract. It’s just not the right deal for the Oil. The money could have been used to trade for someone better at a higher cap hit. Maybe we could have acquired someone like Gusev or Kadri or haula. Using that money to get back Strome even. There’s still some players likely to be traded. But it doesn’t look like we have the cap space to be in the talks.

  21. jp says:

    DieHard:
    Off topic but fans here have noted that Benson’s skating is an issue. Just curious, is it the same type of issue that affects Gagner? Is he Gagner 2.0?

    I think Gagner’s issues as a player are more than just skating though (easy to move off the puck, awareness in his own end). He’s far from the worst skater in the league.

    And Benson, who knows? From reports skating (speed at least) is far from a strength, but I’m not sure it’s a good reason for the comparable.

    The flip side of all that is that an 800+ game career and 46PTS/82GP sounds like a great outcome for Benson (any 2nd round pick really). Gagner gets a lot of flack for being where he is now and for failing as a top 6 center with the Oilers, but that’s a very nice career if you’re looking for complementary winger.

  22. rickithebear says:

    OTT signed Colin White to 6yr 4.75M per contract.

    Colin White (22) 6’0” 183 lb Center
    This year was his debut 35+gm season @ 21 yr on July 1 2018.
    Played 71gm
    Even
    984:27 #97C; 50.06 FO%; 49.85% FOZS% #296 of 423 300+ min forwards.
    9 evg 24 Eva 33 Evp -24

    4.75M for his 22 – 27 seasons.

    Interesting to note around 50% is not #211 forward but in the 280 range of fwds.
    Meaning their are a lot of lines that take a high count of DZ face off so
    (280/31 = 9 fwds) teams top 9 fwds get 50+% FO ZS.

    My past look at situational mean for 4th line teammates facing 1st comp the worst ZS group, showed plus minus to be in the -24 to -26 season range.

    Amen to DZ eaters.

  23. jp says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20

    https://theathletic.com/1154077/2019/08/22/oilers-coach-dave-tippett-might-have-to-take-drastic-action-in-order-to-find-a-second-outscoring-line-in-2019-20/

    Nice post at the Athletic LT. McDavid carrying his own line and Draisaitl-Nuge winning 2nd line minutes would be big boost for the team.

    One worry is that McDavid can’t actually float ALL boats (39% GF without Draisaitl this past season). He’s done it in the past though, so there’s hope.

    Would you hazard a guess at the wingers if Draisaitl and Nuge were paired up on the 2nd line?

    Neal-McDavid-Kassian
    Draisaitl-Nage-Chiasson
    ??

  24. Reja says:

    August 22, 1979
    Edmonton Oilers trade Reg Thomas to the Toronto Maple Leafs for 1981 6th round #111 (Steve Smith)

  25. rickithebear says:

    Rookie camp unsigned Philosophy:

    EVA rates are dependent on wether the fwd you passed to can bury the puck.

    Holland went out and got a collection of forward with very good even shot success density.
    Players who have an ability to drive the Evp results of forwards on Oiler roster.

    Their are a collection of fwds who have the elite passing ability to drive the career evg/60 to a new level.
    Their Passes create clear high success open net shots.
    Guys like Mcd, Draisaitl, Marner.
    Players who are worth as much as the elite evg scorers who drive Evp.

    So when I see rookie camp I look for top CHL evg scorers with strong evg age NHLE.

    Those are the unsigned prospects I want in rookie camp.
    Top evg age NHLE drivers of Evp for other players.

    The quality of bottom 20 save% goes from .889 in CHL to .809 in AHL.
    No feeding on the weak like one can in CHL.
    As a result the top even Open sh density CHL prospects will Fail or continue to show their even goal NHLE.

    We want a steady flow of 10+ evg NHLE forward coming from AHL.

    I cringe at drafted prospects who are low open HD sh success players.
    Unless they are a player like Draisaitl & Puljujarvi who have shown an ability to pass players in to easy open shot spots in junior and European Pro leagues.

    They have the puck control accuracy to be great open shot players.
    We saw Draisaitl modify his from 17-18 to 18-19.
    Massive jump in evg production.

    LT: this post is a joy every year.
    I look forward to studying the unsigned camp invites each year!

    “I want evg age NHLE”

    Those are guys we target in later rounds of draft.

  26. Pouzar says:

    Woogie63: AHL TV for the Condors
    DZON for KHL
    How can we follow the SHL

    try onhockey.tv

  27. rickithebear says:

    Unsigned camp prospect.

    The first one I look at and I am cup core roster drooling.
    Sean Patrick Ryan nailed it when he said he would draft him even though he was not ranked.

    Jaxon Bellamy (18) 6’3” 196 per QMJHL site.
    #4 Qmjhl midget draft prospect.
    #16 taken.

    Age NHLE
    4 evg #70 NHL D
    12 Evp #136 NHL D

    Mobile in transition.
    Strong OZ def lane length.
    Nasty HD area presence. Just nasty. D. Manson Nasty.

    Showed great understanding of arm length value in fights to defend teamates.
    Lack of physical strength is evident in fights with thick older players.

    No video of point shot and wether he is a 4th/5th option attacker when it comes to EVG scorer.
    But his HD coverage says he would be a Def smart attacker.

    What video I could find shows his HD area def mechanics to be superior to most of our def prospects.

    Inside info?
    Would be interesting to see his rookie camp performance.
    Brilliant Rookie camp call!

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    ToddMacallan:
    Broberg goes end to end and banks one off the defender to put Skelleftea up 1-0, video evidence on Twitter, fellow goes by @antonj85

    Thank you for that – that guy is clearly a must follow for those that keep track of the prospects game by game.

  29. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie: AHL TV for the Condors
    DZON for KHL
    How can we follow the SHL

    I’ve got enough with the AHL subscription and then I purchase the odd CHL game – will buy a bunch of Moosehead games for this year.

    With the Oilers and, you know, lawyering, there is only so much hockey I can watch.

  30. Reja says:

    defmn: Can’t disagree with any of that except for what might be my interpretation of your comment about Chiasson. I don’t think his signing impacted the acquisition of a top six guy. His $2.15 cap hit is a 3rd line salary with a $81.5 cap hit. I think it is wishful thinking that that money plus what is left could secure a top 6 winger as a UFA that would move the dial but it probably would have tied the money up for more than the 2 years of Chiasson’s contract.

    If it wasn’t for those meddling kids and that dirty underserving PTO from last year that signed for 2.6 percent of team cap that potted 20 plus and from all accounts is well liked and a leader. We could have signed Connolly who was just using the Oilers for leverage to go back to the state of Florida.

  31. Professor Q says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Just read this comment and it resonated with me.

    “It’s a game where the impact of elite players and goalies is massive and everyone else barely matters. Teams focus on depth, but they shouldn’t. The focus should be on getting as many star players as you can.”

    I like what Holland has done this year, especially the Lucic trade, but we absolutely need a top six forward. The Chiasson money should have been saved to help pay for a top six forward.

    I get that our bottom six was historically bad last year. I just don’t think you improve the team meaningfully by focusing all your efforts on the least impactful players on the team.

    When they’re the only ones you can afford to replace, and you make fine, cheap bets I doing so, the you do what you can.

    You can’t pull a magical Top 6 forward out of your hat whenever you want. Good scouting, chance, luck, and beating the other teams to hidden gems might help in that regard (and then you wait until the next season when you have $20-30 million in cap space).

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    Reja:
    August 22, 1979
    Edmonton Oilers trade Reg Thomas to the Toronto Maple Leafs for 1981 6th round #111 (Steve Smith)

    That trade cost Edmonton a cup!

  33. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just found out LT name-dropped me on the air on Tuesday.

    I’ve been so busy, my Lowetide listening has suffered. For that I apologize.

    Here is hoping it wasn’t in relation to “Jesse taking up a spot on the 50″……

  34. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: That trade cost Edmonton a cup!

    But gained them another!

  35. Harpers Hair says:

    Professor Q: When they’re the only ones you can afford to replace, and you make fine, cheap bets Idoing so, theyou do what you can.

    You can’t pull a magical Top 6 forward out of your hat whenever you want. Good scouting, chance, luck, and beating the other teams to hidden gems might help in that regard (and then you wait until the next season whenyou have $20-30 million in cap space).

    And yet Vancouver managed to add two top six forwards despite being cap strapped.

  36. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: And yet Vancouver managed to add two top six forwards despite being cap strapped.

    Neal is a top 6 forward until further notice.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:

    One worry is that McDavid can’t actually float ALL boats (39% GF without Draisaitl this past season). He’s done it in the past though, so there’s hope.

    True, however, he was over 60% without Drai for the previous two seasons, in aggregate (in almost 1500 minutes).

    I truly think that the goal against issue this past year was largely a function of too many minutes, both within games and, cumulative through the season.

    Of course, having to carry the offence and that pressure I”m sure lead to lazier defensive play and flying the zone, cheating for offence, etc., however, lazier defensive zone play is also a function of fatigue.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: Neal is a top 6 forward until further notice.

    We’ll see.
    Was playing mostly fourth line in Calgary.

  39. Professor Q says:

    Harpers Hair: And yet Vancouver managed to add two top six forwards despite being cap strapped.

    I mean, yeah, they traded for one Top 6 forward and signed a Top 4 D. But they also lost some, non? They also aren’t cap strapped. They still have $6 million in space after the Ferland and Myers signings, Miller acquisition, and Luongo recapture.

    They do have some RFA trouble though. Brock wants 4 years at $7 million AAV.

    Let’s not pretend they’re the 1970s Canadiens.

  40. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Do you think Kopitar ends up in the HoF?

    Over 1000 games & he turns 32 in 2 days. 2 cups, 2 selkes, 1 lady byng.

    Still seems to have a lot of tread

  41. frjohnk says:

    Harpers Hair: We’ll see.
    Was playing mostly fourth line in Calgary.

    Flames probably had one of the best winger depth options in the league last year.
    Oilers wings the worst? For sure if the big 3 were centering their own lines.

    So 4th line on Calgary means at least mid 6 option on the Oilers.

  42. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: We’ll see.
    Was playing mostly fourth line in Calgary.

    Not in Edmonton Tippett will be given him a huge push. I don’t think Peters is on Neal’s Christmas card list.

  43. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: True, however, he was over 60% without Drai for the previous two seasons, in aggregate (in almost 1500 minutes).

    I truly think that the goal against issue this past year was largely a function of too many minutes, both within games and, cumulative through the season.

    Of course, having to carry the offence and that pressure I”m sure lead to lazier defensive play and flying the zone, cheating for offence, etc., however, lazier defensive zone play is also a function of fatigue.

    I agree that he should recover, and yes fatigue was likely a major factor. But it’s become standard to say McDavid doesn’t need help. I think last year shows that’s not quite/not always true. In particular with the wingers the Oilers currently employ, I’m not certain that McDavid can win his minutes without either of Draisaitl or RNH. Maybe, but it’s not a guarantee.

  44. russ99 says:

    JimmyV1965,

    When we have the puck, that’s absolutely true, but any NHL player can contribute in our end.

    To me a big part of the improvement this summer was our bottom six and PK just bled goals against. How many games did we have last year where we dug a big hole and couldn’t even things up?

    I’m not expecting this year’s team to dramatically outscore last year’s team, but I am expecting them to allow a heck of a lot less goals, both 5×5 and 4×5.

    I’d rather see Connor and Leon late in the game even or down a goal than the 5-2 stinkers we saw last year all too often.

  45. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: And yet Vancouver managed to add two top six forwards despite being cap strapped.

    Cap strapped how? They weren’t until they added Myers, Miller and Ferland. What’s the plan for Boeser anyway?

  46. JimmyV1965 says:

    Professor Q: When they’re the only ones you can afford to replace, and you make fine, cheap bets Idoing so, theyou do what you can.

    You can’t pull a magical Top 6 forward out of your hat whenever you want. Good scouting, chance, luck, and beating the other teams to hidden gems might help in that regard (and then you wait until the next season whenyou have $20-30 million in cap space).

    Lots of players moved this off season and there’s more to come. Saying you can’t make a trade is a weak excuse. That’s what GMs do. I’m not shifting on Holland. Just disappointed.

  47. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    JimmyV1965,

    When we have the puck, that’s absolutely true, but any NHL player can contribute in our end.

    To me a big part of the improvement this summer was our bottom six and PK just bled goals against. How many games did we have last year where we dug a big hole and couldn’t even things up?

    I’m not expecting this year’s team to dramatically outscore last year’s team, but I am expecting them to allow a heck of a lot less goals, both 5×5 and 4×5.

    I’d rather see Connor and Leon late in the game even or down a goal than the 5-2 stinkers we saw last year all too often.

    We’ll see. I thought Chia Improved the bottom six last year as well. I guess it can’t get worse. The bottom six is the easiest part of a team to assemble. We could have acquired a top six forward and still picked up all the same pieces, except for Chiasson.

  48. frjohnk says:

    jp: I’m not certain that McDavid can win his minutes without either of Draisaitl or RNH

    If one looks at the 16-17 and 17-18 seasons together, McDavid had a positive GF% at 5 on 5 with every winger except Pouliot ( they were 0-1 in 40 minutes) McDavid has shown he can take 4th line talents and make them score at top 6 rates and win those minutes.

    But last year when Koskinen was in net and McDavid was on the ice, the GA/60 was 3.71. This was for 792 minutes at 5 on 5.

    For reference, Talbot with McDavid together in 16-17 and 17-18 had a GA/60 of 2.58 in 2163 minutes
    Last year, Talbot with McDavid together had a GA/60 of 2.51 in 501 minutes.

    We can all debate all the reasons on why the GA/60 was 3.71 but the reality is that McDavid will not win his minutes if the GA/60 is 3.71 unless he is playing with Drai.

    If while Koskinen and Smith are the tenders while McDavid is on the ice and the GA/60 is somewhere near what it was with Talbot the last 3 years, McDavid will win the majority of his minutes away from Drai.

  49. godot10 says:

    Expect the worst I say. Neal walked off the cliff last year. Fool me once. Shame on you. Fool me twice.

    The Neal trade is a win because it creates $3 million dollars of cap space the OIlers would not have otherwise had if he is bought out. And there is a small but non-zero probability that he rebounds somewhat. This is what one should expect. Anything beyond that is gravy.

    ——————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  50. frjohnk says:

    Last year
    Koskinen GA/60 when McDavid on bench was 2.01.
    Talbot GA/60 when McDavid on bench was 2.92.

    So Koskinen went from a AHL tweener with McDavid on the ice to a top flight goalie with McDavid on the bench.

    Talbot went from OK with McDavid on the ice to worse than OK with McDavid on the bench.

    Bizarre.

  51. frjohnk says:

    The GF/60 when Koskinen was in net and McDavid on the bench was 1.83
    The GF/60 when Talbot was in net and McDavid on the bench was 1.36.

    That kind of scoring is what some would say is ” ineffable”

    Koskinen GF% with out McDavid was 47.8%
    Talbot GF% without McDavid was 31.7%

    Koskinen GF% with McDavid was 48%
    Talbot GF% with McDavid was 57%.

    So last year the coaches should have started Koskinen so the first shot did not go in. Then when McDavid was on the ice, put Talbot in net. When McDavid came off the ice, take Talbot out and put Koskinen in net.

    If it was only this easy 🙂

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Cap strapped how? They weren’t until they added Myers, Miller and Ferland. What’s the plan for Boeser anyway?

    Boeser is an easy sign.
    Looks like 4x $7M
    Rousseau will be on LTIR.
    Tim Schiller in the minors.
    Creates $4M in cap space.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    LTIR doesn’t create cap relief cushion until day 1 of the regular season – unless they want to use off-season LTIR, which they don’t.

    I assume they want their goal scorer in camp.

  54. PokeCheck says:

    #Tippettary? I obviously missed something in the past week.

  55. SkatinginSand says:

    Harpers Hair: Boeser is an easy sign.
    Looks like 4x $7M
    Rousseau will be on LTIR.
    Tim Schiller in the minors.
    Creates $4M in cap space.

    If you are talking Roussel, LTIR does not create cap space, it only allows you to go over the cap by a convoluted calculation, and is incredibly limiting, because you cannot accrue cap space over the year.
    As of today, the Canucks have $5 mill in cap space. Benning would have to use off season LTIR (a truly awful solution) to fit Boeser in at $7 mill.

    OMG, my brain has been taken over by OP!
    edit- even so, he beat me to it

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp: I think Gagner’s issues as a player are more than just skating though (easy to move off the puck, awareness in his own end). He’s far from the worst skater in the league.

    And Benson, who knows? From reports skating (speed at least) is far from a strength, but I’m not sure it’s a good reason for the comparable.

    The flip side of all that is that an 800+ game career and 46PTS/82GP sounds like a great outcome for Benson (any 2nd round pick really). Gagner gets a lot of flack for being where he is now and for failing as a top 6 center with the Oilers, but that’s a very nice career if you’re looking for complementary winger.

    Agreed about Gags. I put a player’s tool kit in context with what they need to be above replacement level which is where Gags ended up after multiple opinions.

    Smaller players that are not strong at the physical and defensive side of things have to almost always be plus skaters, to overcome the weaknesses. They need the plus skating to create space, to create offensive output which is the only reason to have a player like that in the NHL.

    Sam is a smaller guy despite bulking up (which probably didn’t make things work better and perhaps worse). He doesn’t have explosive starts and from my eye doesn’t have great edges, like Nuge say.

    He has a lot of skill and smarts and a proper attitude, it’s been the skating and a muffin shot that have been the limiting factors for him.

    Benson is bigger and the scouting reports say he has great edges, is hard to get off the puck and is a battler on the boards. These things bode well for a solid NHL career. He can improve his career by working on acceleration and his shot

    Like Connor did. Being an obvious pass first player makes defending easier. When Connor became also a shooting danger in his second season all hope for the opponent was lost.

    So I see Benson as having a higher ceiling than Gags, IF his health holds up. And he takes making millions seriously which a surprising number of prospects don’t seem to shown in not working weaknesses out of their game when the talent is obviously there.

    Edit- like Nuge does, great edges

  57. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Which rookie camp attendees will see NHL games this year?

    Almost locks: Jones

    Essentially locks: Lagesson, Benson, Marody

    Likely: Bouchard, Bear, Yamamoto

    Unlikely but, maybe: Samorukov, Maksimov

    Very unlikely but you never know: McLeod

    Absolute Lock: Yamamoto will miss more AHL games due to injury than he will play NHL games.

  58. Harpers Hair says:

    SkatinginSand: If you are talking Roussel, LTIR does not create cap space, it only allows you to go over the cap by a convoluted calculation, and is incredibly limiting, because you cannot accrue cap space over the year.
    As of today, the Canucks have $5 mill in cap space. Benning would have to use off season LTIR (a truly awful solution) to fit Boeser in at $7 mill.

    OMG, my brain has been taken over by OP!
    edit- even so, he beat me to it

    Of course they can exceed the cap by 10% until opening night and then deal with it.
    They have lots of options.

  59. Reja says:

    Jethro Tull: That trade cost Edmonton a cup!

    There was still 14 mins to tie it up. I blame it on the hockey Gods.

  60. Scungilli Slushy says:

    jp: I agree that he should recover, and yes fatigue was likely a major factor. But it’s become standard to say McDavid doesn’t need help. I think last year shows that’s not quite/not always true. In particular with the wingers the Oilers currently employ, I’m not certain that McDavid can win his minutes without either of Draisaitl or RNH. Maybe, but it’s not a guarantee.

    Connor needs a buzz saw that has more skill than Kassian.

    Crosby is at the top of the list playing behind the net. So he can carry players. Connor isn’t the worse or best there.

    Connor needs his finisher and his Tikk. The Tikk role plays defensively and has requisite skill, but the main point is to be a big pain in the ass and distraction allowing Connor space and more options.

    Kassian gets it. He doesn’t have quite enough at this point to be a set feature on Connor’s line, but can be a placeholder. Sather used many placeholders, it’s a thing.

    I reference Sather a lot. But we should as Oiler fans. His Oiler tenure was genius. Players are different in that the game is very different.

    But being a foreword thinking manager does not change, because it’s thinking, not playing.

  61. jp says:

    frjohnk: If one looks at the 16-17 and 17-18 seasons together, McDavid had a positive GF% at 5 on 5 with every winger except Pouliot ( they were 0-1 in 40 minutes)McDavid has shown he can take 4th line talents and make them score at top 6 rates and win those minutes.

    But last year when Koskinen was in net and McDavid was on the ice, the GA/60 was 3.71.This was for 792 minutes at 5 on 5.

    For reference, Talbot with McDavid together in 16-17 and 17-18 had a GA/60 of 2.58 in 2163 minutes
    Last year, Talbot with McDavid together had a GA/60 of 2.51 in 501 minutes.

    We can all debate all the reasons on why the GA/60 was 3.71 but the reality is that McDavid will not win his minutes if the GA/60 is 3.71 unless he is playing with Drai.

    If while Koskinen and Smith are the tenders while McDavid is on the ice and the GA/60 is somewhere near what it was with Talbot the last 3 years, McDavid will win the majority of his minutes away from Drai.

    I generally agree with all this, but McDavid isn’t infallible. At some point there are limits to who he can carry. He’s generally also had at least one good winger when playing with the lesser roster types. Some of the non-Drai minutes would have been him double shifting against weak opposition too, which is a different case.

    I’m not worried about McDavid. I’m not dumping on him. But his GF%on will very likely suffer if he doesn’t have Draisaitl as a main winger.

  62. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: There was still 14 mins to tie it up. I blame it on the hockey Gods.

    Deflated sails. Was listening at work on the radio and could hear it coming. As opposed to when you could hear a goal coming as so often did. The chances were there but there was still a difference, not as many dangerous.

    For the young here, when the Oilers at that time ‘wanted’ to push, it was an unstoppable force. It was different to me that sad night.

  63. jp says:

    Decidedly Skeptical Fan: Absolute Lock: Yamamoto will miss more AHL games due to injury than he will play NHL games.

    Oooh, interesting bet. I disagree, but that’s pretty inventive.

  64. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Deflated sails. Was listening at work on the radio and could hear it coming. As opposed to when you could hear a goal coming as so often did. The chances were there but there was still a difference, not as many dangerous.

    For the young here, when the Oilers at that time ‘wanted’ to push, it was an unstoppable force. It was different to me that sad night.

    Definitely the whole city went into a state of shock and disbelief you could hear a pin drop it was eerie
    Quiet for the remainder of the game.

  65. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: Definitely the whole city went into a state of shock and disbelief you could hear a pin drop it was eerie
    Quiet for the remainder of the game.

    If you were there I have pity. Would have been the second worst sports spectacle for an Oiler fan to witness, after the day that the worst thing happened. 06 a close third.

  66. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Connor needs a buzz saw that has more skill than Kassian.

    Crosby is at the top of the list playing behind the net. So he can carry players. Connor isn’t the worse or best there.

    Connor needs his finisher and his Tikk. The Tikk role plays defensively and has requisite skill, but the main point is to be a big pain in the ass and distraction allowing Connor space and more options.

    Kassian gets it. He doesn’t have quite enough at this point to be a set feature on Connor’s line, but can be a placeholder. Sather used many placeholders, it’s a thing.

    I reference Sather a lot. But we should as Oiler fans. His Oiler tenure was genius. Players are different in that the game is very different.

    But being a foreword thinking manager does not change, because it’s thinking, not playing.

    In 1981 Lumley went on a 12 game magical scoring streak when he got thrown onto Gretzky’s wing. Kassian reminds me of Lumley a bit. Will Kass breakout on a contact year and go hard to the net and get hard money garbage goals. I say yes Mama Kass.

  67. godot10 says:

    PokeCheck:
    #Tippettary? I obviously missed something in the past week.

    #Tippettary: The undiscovered country. Heaven or Hell (or Limbo) TBD
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAoiRMC_5F8

    It’s a long way to #Tippettary. It’s a long way to go.

  68. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Per Glen Hall, it wasn’t Smith’s fault. Fuhr’s responsibility was to be back in his net so that nothing weird could happen like oh I don’t know, a puck going in off of him.

    I was at that game. It was not fun.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Of course they can exceed the cap by 10% until opening night and then deal with it.
    They have lots of options.

    Yes, they can sign him today and go over the cap but they need to be compliant on day 1. If they need the LTIR relief cushion, they certainly want to get cap compliant for day 1, without it, and then place the player(s) on LTIR. That mechanism is limiting enough on its own, using LTIR to get cap compliant is even more limiting.

  70. Melman says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Is Boeser on their 50 man? 😉

  71. Reja says:

    Scungilli Slushy: If you were there I have pity. Would have been the second worst sports spectacle for an Oiler fan to witness, after the day that the worst thing happened. 06 a close third.

    Your bang on. For me the dismantling of arguably the greatest team ever trading Mess Anderson Kurri Fuhr and various other players for straight cash. Then came the real threats of my team being moved that was hard on the fan psyche. Never seen to date someone so beloved as Peter Puck turned to pure loathing of the man.

  72. godot10 says:

    godot10: #Tippettary: The undiscovered country.Heaven or Hell (or Limbo) TBD
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAoiRMC_5F8

    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    From Das Boot:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pddW-HeHAwo

    To the sweetest girl I know:

    https://youtu.be/UDc3GvVq_F8?t=271

  73. Lowetide says:

    Reja: There was still 14 mins to tie it up. I blame it on the hockey Gods.

    That’s the key. If you are a champion, that’s plenty of time to save Smith and re-write the script. Credit Calgary too, men. They were no slouches.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, they can sign him today and go over the cap but they need to be compliant on day 1.If they need the LTIR relief cushion, they certainly want to get cap compliant for day 1, without it, and then place the player(s) on LTIR. That mechanism is limiting enough on its own, using LTIR to get cap compliant is even more limiting.

    Easy to get cap compliant on day one.
    Demote Schialler, Alex Biega and Tyler Motte.
    $3M in cap savings.

  75. Reja says:

    Lowetide: That’s the key. If you are a champion, that’s plenty of time to save Smith and re-write the script. Credit Calgary too, men. They were no slouches.

    The Flames that year we’re strictly built to beat the Oilers. The Flames and the fans were so desperate and hungry to finally beat the Oilers playing in the cup final was second fiddle.

  76. Reja says:

    godot10: From Das Boot:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pddW-HeHAwo

    To the sweetest girl I know:

    https://youtu.be/UDc3GvVq_F8?t=271

    Great scene and movie.

  77. Professor Q says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    Per Glen Hall, it wasn’t Smith’s fault. Fuhr’s responsibility was to be back in his net so that nothing weird could happen like oh I don’t know, a puck going in off of him.

    I was at that game. It was not fun.

    And didn’t Smith score the SC winning goal a year or three later, redeeming himself?

  78. Reja says:

    Professor Q: And didn’t Smith score the SC winning goal a year or three later, redeeming himself?

    We’re so lucky to have not only Connor but Leon as well. Both these players are winners and Holland we find the right mix to bring back the cup where it belongs.

  79. Professor Q says:

    Reja: We’re so lucky to have not only Connor but Leon as well. Both these playersare winners and Holland we find the right mix to bring back the cup where it belongs.

    The Hockey Gods demand it.

    Another German Oiler in the SC Finals. Jochen Hecht was sacrificed for Leon Draisaitl’s success.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Easy to get cap compliant on day one.
    Demote Schialler, Alex Biega and Tyler Motte.
    $3M in cap savings.

    Depending on actual numbers, they may not have room to call all 3, or even 2, of them back up and may have to run with a 21 or 22 person roster. They would also likely have zero wiggle room for day to day cap management. Someone is banged up and needs IR for two weeks, well, no cap room to call up a replacement.

    The also risk those three guys on waivers.

  81. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Depending on actual numbers, they may not have room to call all 3, or even 2, of them back up and may have to run with a 21 or 22 person roster.They would also likely have zero wiggle room for day to day cap management. Someone is banged up and needs IR for two weeks, well, no cap room to call up a replacement.

    The also risk those three guys on waivers.

    They would be happy to lose any of those players on waivers. It’s a non issue.

  82. SkatinginSand says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course they can exceed the cap by 10% until opening night and then deal with it.
    They have lots of options.

    On opening day, they must be under the cap or use off season LTR (or not sign Boeser). Those are not good options. The other options are…?
    edit-What OP said is so much better

  83. SkatinginSand says:

    Harpers Hair: They would be happy to lose any of those players on waivers. It’s a non issue.

    Seems to be some goalpost moving here.

  84. Reja says:

    SkatinginSand: On opening day, they must be under the cap or use off season LTR (or not sign Boeser). Those are not good options.The other options are…?
    edit-What OP said is so much better

    Fuk the Canucks who boos their country against the evil Commies!

  85. Georgexs says:

    1. Here are the points totals for the median 6F over the past 6 seasons:

    13, 32
    14, 33
    15, 35
    16, 35
    17, 33
    18, 34

    – the threshold for being top 6 is not that high; you have to average at least 0.42 points per game minimum and play every game of the season; or you can average 0.5 points per game and play 68 games a season; or you can average 0.6 points per game and play 57 games a season; on points per game, the median 6F scored at a 0.52 mark last season

    – if you score less than 0.4 points per game, you may still be one of the top 6 scorers on your team; but your offense is going to fall into the bottom half of 6F’s across all teams

    2. Here are the number of teams that made the playoffs in the past six seasons that also made the playoffs in the previous season:

    13, 11
    14, 9
    15, 11
    16, 9
    17, 9
    18, 11

    – if, at the start of each season, you picked last season’s playoff teams to make the playoffs, you would’ve been right on 60 out of you 96 picks; that’s a 62.5% rate, well clear of the 52.7% accuracy you’d get by picking randomly (96 playoff teams out of 182 teams overall in the past 6 seasons).

    3. From yesterday, I wanted to look at whether having 6 or more top 6 forwards to start the season was a good predictor for whether a team is going to make the playoffs. My methodology is to take the players who played games for a team in the first month of each season and check whether they scored at least as many points in the previous season as that season’s median 6F. Then, I added up the number of players on each team and each season that met this criteria. Finally, I determined whether each team made the playoffs in each season.

    Here’s a breakdown on how successful teams were over the past six seasons in making the playoffs based on the number of top 6 F’s they started the season with:

    # of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    2, 4, 0, .00
    3, 8, 5, .63
    4, 21, 12, .57
    5, 53, 21, .40
    6, 46, 24, .52
    7, 40, 26, .65
    8, 10, 8, .80

    The rule I wanted to test yesterday (6 or more top 6F’s) gets 58 out of 96 predictions correct, 60% right. Worse than the playoff rule from above, but better than picking at random.

    Interesting pattern there in that teams that start with 3 or 4 top 6F’s have been more successful than teams that started with 5 or 6. Could be just noise.

    Want to say a little more about this, but I have to step out for a sec…

  86. jp says:

    Professor Q: The Hockey Gods demand it.

    Another German Oiler in the SC Finals. Jochen Hecht was sacrificed for Leon Draisaitl’s success.

    I feel weird that Hecht only played one season for the Oilers. And 17 years ago. I guess I had high hopes for him?

    Who was the first German Oiler? Apologies if you mean Hecht. I assume I’m forgetting someone from the 80’s.

  87. jp says:

    Georgexs:

    # of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    2, 4, 0, .00
    3, 8, 5, .63
    4, 21, 12, .57
    5, 53, 21, .40
    6, 46, 24, .52
    7, 40, 26, .65
    8, 10, 8, .80

    The rule I wanted to test yesterday (6 or more top 6F’s) gets 58 out of 96 predictions correct, 60% right. Worse than the playoff rule from above, but better than picking at random.

    Interesting pattern there in that teams that start with 3 or 4 top 6F’s have been more successful than teams that started with 5 or 6. Could be just noise.

    Want to say a little more about this, but I have to step out for a sec…

    8 top 6 forwards and you’re golden. Otherwise, who the F knows?

    The Oilers somehow hit the soft middle too. That’s super odd, curious what else you have to say.

  88. Reja says:

    jp: I feel weird that Hecht only played one season for the Oilers. And 17 years ago. I guess I had high hopes for him?

    Who was the first German Oiler? Apologies if you mean Hecht. I assume I’m forgetting someone from the 80’s.

    In 2000-2001 season Sven Butenschön appeared in 7 games being the first German born player to play for the Edmonton Oilers including the WHA

  89. HT Joe says:

    Georgexs: # of top 6 F’s, # of teams, # of teams that made the playoffs, success_rate

    2, 4, 0, .00
    3, 8, 5, .63
    4, 21, 12, .57
    5, 53, 21, .40
    6, 46, 24, .52
    7, 40, 26, .65
    8, 10, 8, .80

    The rule I wanted to test yesterday (6 or more top 6F’s) gets 58 out of 96 predictions correct, 60% right. Worse than the playoff rule from above, but better than picking at random.

    First of all, I love these posts you’re making… thank you!!

    Next, this just boggles the mind. While trying not just to cheaply re-hash Chia’s failures, its crazy to think how close the Oilers forward core were to being exceptional. Hall-RNH-Eberle + Drai +(the McDavid Draft Pick) +(the Barzal Draft Pick). There… a team statistically probably to make the playoffs 3 out of every 5 years.

  90. jp says:

    Reja: In 2000-2001 season Sven Butenschön appeared in 7 games being the first German born player to play for the Edmonton Oilers including the WHA

    Yeah, but PQ mentioned Stanley Cup Finals.

  91. HT Joe says:

    jp: The Oilers somehow hit the soft middle too. That’s super odd, curious what else you have to say.

    The Oilers right now with 4 top-6 forwards.

    The Oilers drafted 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 3rd, 1st, 4th between 2010 and 2016, and used all 6 of their top-4 or better picks on forwards. And from those 6 picks, they currently have only 3 top 6 forwards.

    Positive note: Eberle was traded for Strome for Spooner for Gagner – Gagner could flirt with 34-ish points this year (I believe!)

    Positive note: JP could play the year in Europe, smarten up, and be a top-6 Oiler in 2020-2021 (within that critical draft +5 year period)

  92. Professor Q says:

    jp: I feel weird that Hecht only played one season for the Oilers. And 17 years ago. I guess I had high hopes for him?

    Who was the first German Oiler? Apologies if you mean Hecht. I assume I’m forgetting someone from the 80’s.

    Wait. 2006 is not 17 years ago. I thought Hecht played in the 2006 Finals against Carolina but he was on Buffalo. Much ado about his German skates that had the safety blade covers (T-Blades?) was made in the media those playoffs.

    Wait. Maybe Coach’s Corner was highlighting that in the 2006 playoffs due to Buffalo’s run. This darned Mandala Effect. Did Samsonov have T-Blades?

  93. who says:

    godot10:
    Expect the worst I say.Neal walked off the cliff last year.Fool me once.Shame on you.Fool me twice.

    The Neal trade is a win because it creates $3 million dollars of cap space the OIlers would not have otherwise had if he is bought out.And there is a small but non-zero probability that he rebounds somewhat.This is what one should expect.Anything beyond that is gravy.

    ——————————————————————-
    It’s a long way to #Tippettary.It’s a long way to go.

    You’ve hit the nail squarely on the head with this post.

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    SkatinginSand: Seems to be some goalpost moving here.

    None at all.
    The Canucks have an excess of disposable forwards currently listed on a 24 man roster.
    Easy to pare that down to be in compliance.

    SkatinginSand: Seems to be some goalpost moving here.

  95. CallighenMan says:

    Harpers Hair: Of course they can exceed the cap by 10% until opening night and then deal with it.
    They have lots of options.

    Why do you bother with the multiple accounts troll?

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    HT Joe: First of all, I love these posts you’re making… thank you!!

    Next, this just boggles the mind.While trying not just to cheaply re-hash Chia’s failures, its crazy to think how close the Oilers forward core were to being exceptional.Hall-RNH-Eberle + Drai +(the McDavid Draft Pick) +(the Barzal Draft Pick).There… a team statistically probably to make the playoffs 3 out of every 5 years.

    The thing forgotten in all of this line of thinking is its a capped league.

    Every team needs a good goalie, and the rest by definition has to change.

    Signing UFAs at the top of the range doesn’t work.

    Development and maximizing contracted players is the way forward.

    It’s the same in non sport business in a way, now that the NHL is capped and regulates expenditure for the teams that are cash rich.

  97. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: We’ll see. I thought Chia Improved the bottom six last year as well. I guess it can’t get worse. The bottom six is the easiest part of a team to assemble.We could have acquired a top six forward and still picked up all the same pieces, except for Chiasson.

    Jimmy:

    Players generate goals.
    Passers recieve assists from goal scorers.
    Only super elite passers cause players to have marked jump in evg/60

    When chasing bottom 6 players 1 want as many top 6 evg scorers cause they generate offence.
    And
    Help GF.

    Top 6 fwd is understood as 1st & 2nd line forwards.

    Most like to go 31 x 6 top 186.
    #31 1.25 evg/60 23 evg
    #62 1.12. 20 evg
    #93 1.00 17 evg
    #124 .91 15 evg
    #155 .82 13 evg
    #186. .77 12 evg
    but that is incorrect.

    Top 3 fwd is
    #31LW 1.08 evg/60 17 evg
    #31C 1.07 20 evg
    #31RW. 1.02 16 evg

    Top 6 fwd is
    #62 LW .74 evg/60 10 evg
    #62 C .87 14 evg
    #62 RW .73 11 evg

    When looking at current forwards best evg/60 & evg seasons in last 3 yrs.
    Mcdavid C 1.27 evg/60 31 evg
    Drai LW/C 1.25 31 evg
    RNH C 1.20 19 evg
    Neal LW 1.15 20 evg
    Jurco LW/RW 1.02. 6 evg
    Granlund LW .98 16 evg
    Archibald RW .89 12 evg
    Kassian RW .78 14 evg
    Chaisson LW/RW .77 13 evg

    That is 9 top 6 forwards.
    I see 5 that have shown top 3 fwd evg/60 performance for their position.
    One that has fringe top 3 forward evg/60 & evg.

    Now PPG forwards top 6 Per is 186.
    #31 F 10 ppg
    #62 F 7 ppg
    #93 F 5 ppg
    #124 F 4 ppg
    #155 F 3 ppg
    #186 F 2 ppg
    You probably want PP 1 fwd 4 ppg.

    Oilers last year.
    Drai 16 ppg
    Mcd 9 ppg
    RNH 8 ppg
    Chaisson 8 ppg
    Lucic 2 ppg

    Holland signs
    Neal 5 ppg 16-17 & 17-18
    Granlund 2 ppg
    Jurco no viable pp time

    So I see 9 top 6 fwds at even and 5 PP1 ppg scorers.
    Chaisson was
    # 44 RW in evg same as Bailey, Keller, Donskoi, Panik
    #42 F in ppg same as Benn, Eichel, Skinner, Kuznetsov, JVR
    You want to get rid of that production cause he makes 2.15M
    Bah hahahahaha!

  98. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:
    Per Glen Hall, it wasn’t Smith’s fault. Fuhr’s responsibility was to be back in his net so that nothing weird could happen like oh I don’t know, a puck going in off of him.

    I was at that game. It was not fun.

    Fuhr, in net. His fault largely the goal, never expected he would be in the net. Right?

  99. CallighenMan says:

    SkatinginSand: Seems to be some goalpost moving here.

    You know who you are having your discussion with, yes? DSF…I would say what it really stands for but some of the people frequenting this site are minors…. 🙂

  100. jp says:

    HT Joe: The Oilers right now with 4 top-6 forwards.

    The Oilers drafted 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th, 3rd, 1st, 4th between 2010 and 2016, and used all 6 of their top-4 or better picks on forwards.And from those 6 picks, they currently have only 3 top 6 forwards.

    Positive note: Eberle was traded for Strome for Spooner for Gagner – Gagner could flirt with 34-ish points this year (I believe!)

    Positive note: JP could play the year in Europe, smarten up, and be a top-6 Oiler in 2020-2021 (within that critical draft +5 year period)

    I hear you. And you’re right, it’s egregious. At least the team got 2 of their 3 top 4 D out of these transactions too.

    The crazy thing though is that the Oilers are set up far better to make the playoffs this year (with 4 top 6F) than they were last year with 5 top 6F (according to the analysis). That’s clearly “wrong”, but there’s also a clear bimodal distribution in GeorgeXS’s numbers. WTF?!

    Anyway, back to your point, it is bs.

    Also, errr, go playoffs!! ??

  101. jp says:

    Professor Q: Wait. 2006 is not 17 years ago. I thought Hecht played in the 2006 Finals against Carolina but he was on Buffalo. Much ado about his German skates that had the safety blade covers (T-Blades?) was made in the media those playoffs.

    Wait. Maybe Coach’s Corner was highlighting that in the 2006 playoffs due to Buffalo’s run. This darned Mandala Effect. Did Samsonov have T-Blades?

    17 years ago is crazy, I was shocked when I looked Hecht up too. Worst part is I wasn’t even young then. Frickin’ Hecht is a few months younger than I am.

    No idea about Samsonov’s skates. But yeah, Buffalo would have been on the TV that spring too.

    Sorry for calling out the error, I figured I missed an 80’s German Oiler and was genuinely curious.

  102. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Dys and Flames will be awesome Cup competitors again!

    Book it!

    They will not. The Dys too young and small (should have taken Lucic), the Flames remain far too cocky.

    The Flames are shocked that their plans didn’t work out when the chips are down. I hope they remain hypmotized.

  103. rickithebear says:

    Teams have won the cup with bellow average open ( scoreable) HD shot save% goalies.
    The Def makes them look good by low open shot rates with real low HD density.

    Cup champions in 1995, 2000, & 2003 were 6 top open HD dmen deep.
    They made their goalie look briallant for his first 10 seasons.
    He played games were their were 0 open HD shots if he played like a table hockey goalie.

    In 05-06 cup finalist were 5 open HD dmen deep. They had a top 10 open HD save% goalie but he was hurt in the first game of the final.
    They only had bottom 30 – 40 Open HD save% goalies and lost in 7 games.

    The Stanley cup champion in 2012 & 2014 were 5 top open HD dmen deep and had a below avg open HD Sh save% goalie. They even won one of them with the #28 reg season GF offence.

  104. rickithebear says:

    When I was waiting for treatment at Tom Baker I sat next to a guy in a very unique flames jacket.
    It was Ken King.
    Mentioned I had 40+ hockey theories.
    That his analytics group was likely using my “proprietary work.”

    At that moment I got called in for treatment.
    Looked at him and said, “you can as for xxxxxxx in the clinic after the season.
    I will tell them to give my info if you come in.”

    Only said that cause the guy has/had cancer.

    Other wise I would have said
    “You can …………. after you loose out in first round.”

    Calgary has been a bottom 3 open HD shot defence going back to kippers final 3 yrs.

    40% more top GA teams make final 8 than top GF teams.

    Poor openHD shotbdensity def teams are destined to lose out in first 2 rounds.

  105. HT Joe says:

    jp: I hear you. And you’re right, it’s egregious. At least the team got 2 of their 3 top 4 D out of these transactions too.

    What is super painful is that the Oilers gave away 2 top 4 blueliners (Petry in 2015 and Schultz in 2016) for virtually nothing.
    – Petry since the trade (spring 2015): 314 GP, 139 points
    – Schultz since the trade (early 2016): 188 GP, 101 points

    Let’s provide perspective…

    2015-2016 Season:
    – Sekera: 81GP, 30P
    – Schultz (Edmonton+Pittsburgh): 63GP, 18P
    – Larsson (New Jersey): 82GP, 18P
    – Petry (Montreal): 51GP, 16P
    – Klefbom: 30GP, 12P
    – Nurse: 69GP, 10P

    2016-2017 Season:
    – Schultz (Pittsburgh): 78GP, 51P
    – Klefbom: 82GP, 38P
    – Sekera: 80GP, 35P
    – Petry (Montreal): 80GP, 28P
    – Larsson: 79GP, 19P
    – Nurse: 44GP, 11P

    2017-2018 Season:
    – Petry (Montreal): 82GP, 42P
    – Schultz (Pittsburgh): 63GP, 27P
    – Nurse: 82GP, 26P
    – Klefbom: 66GP, 21P
    – Larsson: 63GP, 13P
    – Sekera: 36GP, 8P

    2018-2019 Season:
    – Petry (Montreal): 82GP, 46P
    – Nurse: 82GP, 41P
    – Klefbom: 61GP, 28P
    – Larsson: 82GP, 20P
    – Schultz (Pittsburgh): 29GP, 15P
    – Sekera: 24GP, 4P

    So, I wanted to rank their offensive output by year:
    Sekera: 1, 3, 6, 6
    Schultz: 2, 1, 2, 5
    Larsson: 3, 5, 5, 4
    Petry: 4, 4, 1, 1
    Klefbom: 5, 2, 4, 3
    Nurse: 6, 6, 3, 2

    If I may, I wanted to add their ranks (lower is better):
    Schultz: 10
    Petry: 10
    Klefbom: 14
    Sekera: 16
    Larsson: 17
    Nurse: 17

    In closing:
    – I hope Klefbom stays healthy
    – Is this the year that Nurse leads the group in offence? Man he’s really grown.
    – For a team that doesn’t have enough offence, MacT and Chia really did a number trading away Petry and Schultz for ~ nothing.

  106. Reja says:

    HT Joe: What is super painful is that the Oilers gave away 2 top 4 blueliners (Petry in 2015 and Schultz in 2016) for virtually nothing.
    – Petry since the trade (spring 2015): 314 GP, 139 points
    – Schultz since the trade (early 2016):188 GP, 101 points

    Let’s provide perspective…

    2015-2016 Season:
    – Sekera: 81GP, 30P
    – Schultz (Edmonton+Pittsburgh): 63GP, 18P
    – Larsson (New Jersey): 82GP, 18P
    – Petry (Montreal): 51GP, 16P
    – Klefbom: 30GP, 12P
    – Nurse: 69GP, 10P

    2016-2017 Season:
    – Schultz (Pittsburgh): 78GP, 51P
    – Klefbom: 82GP, 38P
    – Sekera: 80GP, 35P
    – Petry (Montreal): 80GP, 28P
    – Larsson: 79GP, 19P
    – Nurse: 44GP, 11P

    2017-2018 Season:
    – Petry (Montreal): 82GP, 42P
    – Schultz (Pittsburgh): 63GP, 27P
    – Nurse: 82GP, 26P
    – Klefbom: 66GP, 21P
    – Larsson: 63GP, 13P
    – Sekera: 36GP, 8P

    2018-2019 Season:
    – Petry (Montreal): 82GP, 46P
    – Nurse: 82GP, 41P
    – Klefbom: 61GP, 28P
    – Larsson: 82GP, 20P
    – Schultz (Pittsburgh): 29GP, 15P
    – Sekera: 24GP, 4P

    So, I wanted to rank their offensive output by year:
    Sekera: 1, 3, 6, 6
    Schultz: 2, 1, 2, 5
    Larsson: 3, 5, 5, 4
    Petry: 4, 4, 1, 1
    Klefbom: 5, 2, 4, 3
    Nurse: 6, 6, 3, 2

    If I may, I wanted to add their ranks (lower is better):
    Schultz: 10
    Petry: 10
    Klefbom: 14
    Sekera: 16
    Larsson: 17
    Nurse: 17

    In closing:
    – I hope Klefbom stays healthy
    – Is this the year that Nurse leads the group in offence?Man he’s really grown.
    – For a team that doesn’t have enough offence, MacT and Chia really did a number trading away Petry and Schultz for ~ nothing.

    Erik Gustafsson has them all beat with 17 goals and 43 assists last year.

  107. HT Joe says:

    Reja: Erik Gustafsson has them all beat with 17 goals and 43 assists last year.

    Yeah, I was thinking about him, but that almost felt like cherry picking. The offensive talents of Jultz and Petry were really obvious, but the Oilers still managed to get virtually no return for either. Gustafsson never got enough of a chance with the Oilers, but you can at least accept that Gustafsson wasn’t really glaringly obvious like the other two.

    Man, the Oilers should learn to covet the players that Chicago wants…
    – Gustafsson, DeBrincat, not-Manning…

  108. Reja says:

    CallighenMan: You know who you are having your discussion with, yes?DSF…I would say what it really stands for but some of the people frequenting this site are minors….

    Always viewed the canucks as a weak sister with fair weather fans they’ve never won diddly- squat.
    Most memorable moment in their history was when Phil told them off. Do they still have those two green freaks with their skin tight suits on. I was always hoping that someone in the penalty box would simultaneously rag doll both of those nut bar creeps.

  109. CallighenMan says:

    Reja: Always viewed the canucks as a weak sister with fair weather fans they’ve never won diddly- squat.
    Most memorable moment in their history was when Phil told them off. Do they still have those two green freaks with their skin tight suits on. I was always hoping that someone in the penalty box would simultaneously rag doll both of those nut bar creeps.

    I prefer to use the term “Dy’s” when talking about the (ahem) “NHL” team in Vancouver. … 😉

  110. Reja says:

    HT Joe: Yeah, I was thinking about him, but that almost felt like cherry picking.The offensive talents of Jultz and Petry were really obvious, but the Oilers still managed to get virtually no return for either.Gustafsson never got enough of a chance with the Oilers, but you can at least accept that Gustafsson wasn’t really glaringly obvious like the other two.

    Man, the Oilers should learn to covet the players that Chicago wants…
    – Gustafsson, DeBrincat, not-Manning…

    Oilers need to test drive a bushel full of D this season and the following year. Chia left Holland with the most D prospects in our history it’s going to be fun watching who is a sleeper and forces is way onto the team for many years.

  111. HT Joe says:

    Reja: Oilers need to test drive a bushel full of D this season andthe following year. Chia left Holland with the most D prospects in our history it’sgoing to be fun watching who is a sleeper and forces is way onto the team for many years.

    It’s going to be fun to watch for the sleeper, as long as the Oilers don’t let the sleeper get away for nothing. The Oilers have been futile for my entire “adult life” (post-school), and it would be fun to watch a team moving in the right direction, season over season.

    I haven’t been this negative about the organization since the Hall trade, so who knows, maybe they make the playoffs this year too…

  112. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    HT Joe,

    Mark McNeill being the exception to the rule.

  113. jp says:

    HT Joe: What is super painful is that the Oilers gave away 2 top 4 blueliners (Petry in 2015 and Schultz in 2016) for virtually nothing.
    – Petry since the trade (spring 2015): 314 GP, 139 points
    – Schultz since the trade (early 2016):188 GP, 101 points

    It’s a damn shame. Shultz isn’t entirely a top 4, but that doesn’t excuse the loss of value.

  114. gimme shelter says:

    We have all these young defenders pushing for a spot on the Oil. There is quality but more important than that is quantity.
    Imagine if we had quality and quantity pushing for jobs on our top 6. We have Benson this year and that is it.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody is a wildcard for the top 6.

    Maksimov is turning pro this year but likely not a legit option until next year.

  116. Reja says:

    HT Joe: It’s going to be fun to watch for the sleeper, as long as the Oilers don’t let the sleeper get away for nothing. The Oilers have been futile for my entire “adult life” (post-school), and it would be fun to watch a team moving in the right direction, season over season.

    I haven’t been this negative about the organization since the Hall trade, so who knows, maybe they make the playoffs this year too…

    Tippett did wonders for a way less talented group in the desert he’s coming in fresh and just as hungry as Leon Connor and company to win a cup Tippett is definitely a players coach and he’ll have the players buying in to his system from game 1 all the way to the playoffs.

  117. Material Elvis says:

    rickithebear:

    The Stanley cup champion in 2012 & 2014 were 5 top open HD dmen deep and had a below avg open HD Sh save% goalie. They even won one of them with the #28 reg season GF offence.

    Jonathan Quick put up a .946 save % in the 2012 playoffs. Your statement is absolute nonsense.

  118. Material Elvis says:

    rickithebear:
    When I was waiting for treatment at Tom Baker I sat next to a guy in a very unique flames jacket.
    It was Ken King.
    Mentioned I had 40+ hockey theories.
    That his analytics group was likely using my “proprietary work.”

    Is “proprietary” code for made up in your head? Because ‘proprietary’ infers a legal trademark of, in your case, intellectual property. We’ve been asking for access to your data for years and you never respond. Until that day happens, you cannot claim ownership of any analytical model.

  119. Side says:

    Material Elvis: Is “proprietary” code for made up in your head?Because ‘proprietary’ infers a legal trademark of, in your case, intellectual property.We’ve been asking for access to your data for years and you never respond.Until that day happens, you cannot claim ownership of any analytical model.

    I believe he said he kept his analytics stuff on his work computer… but then his work computer was wiped.. and IT could not recover it….?

    Unless I dreamt that. I mean, it is absurd enough to be a dream scenario.

  120. VanIsleOil says:

    Professor Q: Wait. 2006 is not 17 years ago. I thought Hecht played in the 2006 Finals against Carolina but he was on Buffalo. Much ado about his German skates that had the safety blade covers (T-Blades?) was made in the media those playoffs.

    Wait. Maybe Coach’s Corner was highlighting that in the 2006 playoffs due to Buffalo’s run. This darned Mandala Effect. Did Samsonov have T-Blades?

    Smokin Jochen with his T-Blades…..

    https://images.app.goo.gl/cbk5ZgxqogGZ4MVu6

  121. Material Elvis says:

    Side: I believe he said he kept his analytics stuff on his work computer… but then his work computer was wiped.. and IT could not recover it….?

    Unless I dreamt that. I mean, it is absurd enough to be a dream scenario.

    You have a good memory. It’s a modern take on the ‘dog ate my homework’ excuse.

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