Here Come The Warm Jets

by Lowetide

Dave Tippett’s regular season had a lot of shining moments and the post-season thought process shouldn’t take away from a strong first season for the coach. What does he need to build on for next season?

THE ATHLETIC!

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What was his record? The first Tippett Oilers were on pace for 96 points, that would have been the highest point total for an Edmonton team since 2016-17.

What was his biggest accomplishment? I’ll say his handling of unproven talent. Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones played well and were slotted into feature roles. There are 12 foundation positions (top two lines, top two pairings, No. 3 center, No. 1 goalie). Three new solutions to foundation positions arrive from the AHL in one season? That’s a big deal. Jones doesn’t play top-4D yet but he showed he can when the team trades one of Klefbom or Nurse. I don’t think that day arrives in 2020.

What else? Special teams were brilliant, we’ll be quoting the numbers from last season for years. In Todd McLellan’s first season, Oilers had 43 power-play goals (6 GA on the PP, +37), 48 GA when on the PK (5 goals for, -43)

Under Tippett this year? 59 power-play goals (10 GA on the PP, +49), 31 GA when on the PK (3 goals for, -28).

What does that mean? In 2015-16, McLellan’s first year, Edmonton went 48-54 (-6) on special teams. In 2019-20, Tippett’s first year, the Oilers delivered 62-41 (+21) with the man advantage. That’s a fantastic season by Tippett’s gang.

Even strength must have been a mess. McLellan’s first team was 155-188, -33. Tippett’s, in fewer games of course, went 160-173, -13. Improved, but plenty of work to do.

Where would you start? Goaltending. Oilers had a .9055 overall SP (No. 14), .908 five on five SP (No. 22). Improve the even strength save percentage, add some points, finish higher in the standings. Too simple an explanation but the goaltending needs to be upgraded.

And Ken Holland signs Adam Cracknell. Great! I’ve seen a few tweets fretting over the signing, it’s kind of silly. Cracknell played in the KHL last season, that’s the best league in Europe and many feel it’s the second best league in the world. He played center, scored 10-14-24 in 52 games, went 26-25 at even strength on ice goal differential, scored 7-2-1 EV-PP-PK goals and averaged 17:35 a night. Teams have to find veteran forwards who can play center in the minors, it’s the reason Josh Currie’s minor league salary was $160,000 last season. You. Need. Centers. in the AHL.

Yeah but the 50-man, man. They won’t be able to pick up that good forward who is on waivers for the first time! Okay, among folks who write about the Oilers the only person who follows the waiver wire more closely than me is Willis. So, allow me to let you in on a little secret. The Oilers aren’t going to take Daniel Sprong on waivers because they like Kailer Yamamoto more, Josh Archibald can do more things plus Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson do other things. Here’s what Holland’s white board might look like today:

See! They’re screwed! NO they’re not! The list above contains four goalies, 15 defensemen (Broberg a possible slide) and 22 forwards. That’s 41 names, 40 if Broberg stays in Sweden. Edmonton can add seven or eight names and still have room.

Daniel Sprong was the one, too. I just know it. I hate you.

I would suggest to you that Mr. Rishaug has cornered the truth in regard to Jesse Puljujarvi’s future. I’ll guess he fetches a pick inside the top 40, that Holland hopes Jan Mysak is available but settles for Jake Neighbours instead. Neighbours is a fine young prospect but that’s a bitter pill for value-wise consumers.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big day on TSN1260, beginning at 10. We have Frank Seravalli at 10:20 and Jason Gregor at 11, we’ll breakdown the playoffs, the trade market and drill down on Ken Holland’s summer and Jesse Puljujarvi’s future. We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that gigantic sports brain of yours. Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word, then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer. Use all the words! Reach me @Lowetide on via text at 10-1260. Tune in and win!

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OriginalPouzar

Listening to Bill Daly on the 2-Man Advantage with LeBrun.

Some high level points:

– the 7 teams they didn’t come back very much want some extra training camp time.

– they are working on protocols for what off-season training at facilities will look like.

– don’t know what next season will look like. Will take their time and asses all the info including looking at the other leagues including NFL and European leagues.

– still very much want an 82 game season but don’t know if that is do-able. If they start in January, they could still get 82 games in. Playing partially in the summer is an option but they do want to get back on a normal cycle ASAP, once world events permit.

– bubble season is not a model for a full regular season – not by any stretch.

– constructing next season is totally different than what they structured this summer

– acknowledged the likelihood of having temp tests or some sort of testing to get in the building.

– maybe some fans in some buildings and not others? The NFL is dealing with different market conditions and local requirements and they don’t even have to deal with a border – it is going to be complicated.

– Haven’t spoke to government or health authorities with respect to crossing borders for next season. The focus has been on the current RTP and it may even be premature to have those discussion re: border travel for next year.

– Dec 1 will depend on “what they decide to do” – it’s probably “less likely” but that could change.

OriginalPouzar

Sounds like the 50/50 is coming back for the SCF……

OriginalPouzar

Sounds like Virtanan might not be in Benning’s plans for next year.

I expect they will try and move him as oppossed to not qualifying him but for apx $1.5M he may be worth a flyer – not sure if he can play the left wing or solely a right wing.

Lewis Grant

leadfarmer: Trading JP to recover some picks because of a bad trade made by the GM is a very Oilers thing to do.

Yes, yes it is.

Already at the trade deadline, I was a little concerned about the AA trade, given his background.

But are we really going to give up on AA after a dozen games? We gave up on Strome pretty quickly too, and he scored 61 points in 73 games this year. (We also gave up on Draisaitl’s Hart chances after his -20 December, but he seemed to turn out OK in 2020.)

How many games did AA get with McDavid? He and Ennis were absolutely flying with McDavid in that first game. And his 30-goal year wasn’t an outlier when it came to SH%.

I say AA’s worth another chance. I’ll take him (even at ~$3M) over Jake Neighbours.

jp

Bobcaygeon,

Same. I’m definitely curious to see what Holland ends up doing with the team (and how AA does going forward)

Bobcaygeon

jp: Seems we disagree on these 2 points.

Shall we move on?

good debate. I get what you’re saying.

jp

Bobcaygeon:
AA is a bad bet to fill a top six role.

but you can use AA 3 million to add to a contract that will be a far better bet.

Seems we disagree on these 2 points.

Shall we move on?

Bobcaygeon

jp: Did you see the list of recent UFAs I posed last night? (guys who signed in the ball park of $3M in the last couple of yrs).

I think only 1 of the 16 players had even a 35 point season after signing (Perron, who signed for 4 yrs X $4M at age 30). AA averaged 19G, 38P over the last 3 years so I think he’s a very good bet to top 35P next season, whoever he plays for.

Maybe there’s a drastic reduction in salaries this off season, but I think you’d be disappointed with the “top 6 forward” you’d get with AAs money.

If you want to sign a 3C or extend Bear instead, I can understand that preference. But I don’t agree $3M added to the pot is more valuable than AA, never mind way more valuable.

Agree to disagree I guess.

where does it say you can only obtain a top 6 player from UFA? I’ll make a wager that AA doesn’t hit 40, I’ll take that bet.
Where did I say you can only look at top six players?
Oilers have huge holes to fill and the UFA market is one of many ways to fill holes.
AA is a bad bet to fill a top six role.
Where did I say you have to fill that role only with the 3 million? I didn’t, but you can use AA 3 million to add to a contract that will be a far better bet.

jp

Bobcaygeon: Well, I don’t know about you but I’d spend that 3 million on a number of things, a top 6 forward, a third line center, Bears contract, adding to the D-corps.
That 3 million added to the pot is way more valuable to the Oilers than AA is.

Did you see the list of recent UFAs I posed last night? (guys who signed in the ball park of $3M in the last couple of yrs).

I think only 1 of the 16 players had even a 35 point season after signing (Perron, who signed for 4 yrs X $4M at age 30). AA averaged 19G, 38P over the last 3 years so I think he’s a very good bet to top 35P next season, whoever he plays for.

Maybe there’s a drastic reduction in salaries this off season, but I think you’d be disappointed with the “top 6 forward” you’d get with AAs money.

If you want to sign a 3C or extend Bear instead, I can understand that preference. But I don’t agree $3M added to the pot is more valuable than AA, never mind way more valuable.

Agree to disagree I guess.

Bobcaygeon

jp: Which 30 point player would you like to spend $3M on instead?

Well, I don’t know about you but I’d spend that 3 million on a number of things, a top 6 forward, a third line center, Bears contract, adding to the D-corps.
That 3 million added to the pot is way more valuable to the Oilers than AA is.

jp

GordieHoweHatTrick: Me

They say players need to bet on themselves…

I hope Holland sticks with AA though lol

GordieHoweHatTrick

jp: Which 30 point player would you like to spend $3M on instead?

Me

jp

Bobcaygeon:

I think it’s a horrible way to spend 3m dollars on AA who will most likely get you 30-35 points.
Just one guys opinion

Which 30 point player would you like to spend $3M on instead?

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

SwedishPoster,

Should facilitate the development of his puck moving skills given Granberg’s lack of puck skills.

SwedishPoster

OriginalPouzar:
Great to see Broberg rolled out on the top pair game after game – its just exhibition for now but I anticipate that will continue when the regular season starts in, I believe, 10 days or so.

https://twitter.com/skelleftea_aik/status/1303697859217416192

Lokomotiv playing today as well.Hopefully Konovalov gets the start – he was great in game 1 in a 7-2 win but the back-up did get a shutout in a 2-0 game 2 win.

I wouldn’t count on it being the first pairing, haven’t seen the TOI for the first few games but if I were to guess the Lundberg- Burström pairing is likely the top pair, two vets both with NT games to their resumé. He’s safely in the top 4 though and SHL teams usually roll their top two pairs pretty evenly. Broberg’s D partner, former Toronto/Nashville tweener Petter Granberg is a bit of an anchor, though the coaches seem to like him. Rickiboxer with iffy skating and puckhandling.

Bobcaygeon

OriginalPouzar: 58 minutes together over two seasons……

A stretch where they did have materially positive possession and outscored the opponent 3:1.

I’m not sure how believing he could be a 50 point player with McDavid was a fault when he has proven to be a 60 point plus player with Panarin.

He was never given the chance on McDavid’s wing and in the tiny chance he was given, the duo produced.

Strome is not a proven 60 point player, like I said earlier, a player can have a positive year but the 30-35 points he gotten the last 4-5 years tell me he’s somewhere around 35 points.
We can also add for the Oilers sake, Chaission or Marroon unless you believe these players to be 25-30 goal scorers in there own right?
I think it’s a horrible way to spend 3m dollars on AA who will most likely get you 30-35 points.
Just one guys opinion

OriginalPouzar

Bobcaygeon:
OriginalPouzar,

3 million to the Edmonton Oilers is a massive amount of dollars believe it or not.

As I said, unless there is a real use for that $3M, a responsible use for it, I am fine with it going to AA – his history shows he can be value for that cap hit and, as has been shown, for one player, $3M doesn’t get you much – in fact, it gets you less than what AA is likely to produce.

OriginalPouzar

Bobcaygeon: Strome was on McDavid’s wing for a time & believing that he would become a 50 point player was one of many Chiarelli faults.
AA P/60 may say his potential but His points tell me he’s a 30-35 point player.
Convince me i’m wrong.

58 minutes together over two seasons……

A stretch where they did have materially positive possession and outscored the opponent 3:1.

I’m not sure how believing he could be a 50 point player with McDavid was a fault when he has proven to be a 60 point plus player with Panarin.

He was never given the chance on McDavid’s wing and in the tiny chance he was given, the duo produced.

OriginalPouzar

Great to see Broberg rolled out on the top pair game after game – its just exhibition for now but I anticipate that will continue when the regular season starts in, I believe, 10 days or so.

https://twitter.com/skelleftea_aik/status/1303697859217416192

Lokomotiv playing today as well. Hopefully Konovalov gets the start – he was great in game 1 in a 7-2 win but the back-up did get a shutout in a 2-0 game 2 win.

Bobcaygeon

OriginalPouzar,

3 million to the Edmonton Oilers is a massive amount of dollars believe it or not.

Bobcaygeon

OriginalPouzar: P/60, this past season was the outlier – 4 straight seasons at 1.8 P/60 or above (one above 2.0 P/60) – generally middle six linemates and not a ton of PP time.

The risk here is $3M for one year – we aren’t talking a big money long term deal.

We actually don’t know what Strome would have done on McDavid’s wing, it was never tried. Of course, we know that Strome put up 60 points in a shortened season with Panarin……

Strome was on McDavid’s wing for a time & believing that he would become a 50 point player was one of many Chiarelli faults.
AA P/60 may say his potential but His points tell me he’s a 30-35 point player.
Convince me i’m wrong.

OriginalPouzar

Bobcaygeon: 2015-16Detroit Red WingsNHL3795145151010
2016-17Detroit Red WingsNHL6418112928-7—————
2017-18Detroit Red WingsNHL7116173316-15—————
2018-19Detroit Red WingsNHL7630245438-9—————
2019-20Detroit Red WingsNHL4610142426-45
2019-20Edmonton OilersNHL91124

Which year looks like the outlier?

AA isn’t scoring 25-30 goals……Even on McDavids wing.
It’s likeChiarelli thinking Strome was going to score 30 goals playing with McDavid even though Strome was a career 30 point player.

Can players have good years, sure,but the bet is they will revert to the mean.

P/60, this past season was the outlier – 4 straight seasons at 1.8 P/60 or above (one above 2.0 P/60) – generally middle six linemates and not a ton of PP time.

The risk here is $3M for one year – we aren’t talking a big money long term deal.

We actually don’t know what Strome would have done on McDavid’s wing, it was never tried. Of course, we know that Strome put up 60 points in a shortened season with Panarin……

OriginalPouzar

jp: On Athanasiou and his value at $3M. Covid Cap throws a wrench in things, we know prices will be somewhat lower this year. By how much we don’t know.

But just perusing what $3M has bought teams on the FA market in recent years. It’s easy to forget.

Forwards signed for $2,500,000 to $4,00,000 in July 2019:
Colin Wilson 2.6M X 1 30yo Played 9 games (best season was 20-22-42 back in 14-15)
Joonas Donskoi 3.9M X 4 27yo 65-16-17-33 (career high 14-23-37)
Richard Panik 2.75M X 4 28yo 59-9-13-22 (once scored 22-22-44)
Brandon Tanev 3.5M X 6 27yo 68-11-14-25 (career high 14-15-29)
Valtteri Filppula 3M X 2 35yo 70-6-15-21 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
Brett Connolly 3.5M X 4 27yo 69-19-14-33 (career high 22-24-46)
Micheal Ferland 3.5M X 4 27yo only 14GP unfortunately (career high 21-20-41)
Ryan Dzingel 3.375M X 2 27yo 69-8-21-29 (career high just before signing 26-30-56)

In July 2018:
Antoine Roussel 3M X 4 29yo 106-16-28-44 (career high 14-15-29)
Sven Baertchi 3.366M X 3 27yo 35GP over 2 seasons (career high 18-17-35)
Jay Beagle 3M X 4 32yo 112-5-16-21 (career high 13-17-30)
Leo Komarov 3M X 4 31yo 130-10-30-40 (career high 19-17-36)
Michael Grabner 3.35M X 3 30yo 87-17-10-27 (career high 27-13-40)
Riley Nash 2.75M X 3 29yo 142-8-18-26 (career high 15-26-41)
Valtteri Filppula 2.75M X 1 34yo 72-17-14-31 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
David Perron 4M X 4 30yo 128-48-58-106 (career high 16-50-66) Great, great signing apparently.
Matt Calvert 2.85 X 3 28y 132-23-28-51 (career high 11-15-26)

For comparison Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38 over the past 3 seasons (that’s including the most recent shit show).

AA looks to me like a great bet to cover $3M in a normal year. $3M doesn’t buy much on the open market. He’s probably (IMO) worth that in a Covid year too.

And Kassian too for that matter, his deal doesn’t really look like an overpay relative to UFA going rates (which is not to say that means it’s a good deal).

Good info – thank you.

I’ve been clear on my position that I’m not looking to flip AA for a 2nd round pick unless there is a real use for that $3M.

I do have some time for Benson to replace AA on the roster if the money can actually be used on the 3C, top 6W or 1B – responsibly used.

Taking that away, I’m willing to go 1 X $3M as long as AA will sign prior to QO time and arb risk. Sure, I’d like it to come in less but I think he’s a reasonable bet at $3M.

Last year was his only year below 1.8 P/60 in the last 4 (and he’s been over 2 P/60) – he’s also shown the ability to produce at 5 on 5 with non-elite linemates.

I don’t know where he fits on this team – we all saw him not really fit anywhere. We also saw Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse look like replacement level d-men so I take what we saw with some salt grains.

Bobcaygeon

DieHard: And, what if AA pops and scores 24-30 goals and looks good and comfortable on Connors wing?

2015-16 Detroit Red Wings NHL 37 9 5 14 5 1 5 1 0 1 0
2016-17 Detroit Red Wings NHL 64 18 11 29 28 -7 — — — — —
2017-18 Detroit Red Wings NHL 71 16 17 33 16 -15 — — — — —
2018-19 Detroit Red Wings NHL 76 30 24 54 38 -9 — — — — —
2019-20 Detroit Red Wings NHL 46 10 14 24 26 -45
2019-20 Edmonton Oilers NHL 9 1 1 2 4

Which year looks like the outlier?

AA isn’t scoring 25-30 goals……Even on McDavids wing.
It’s like Chiarelli thinking Strome was going to score 30 goals playing with McDavid even though Strome was a career 30 point player.

Can players have good years, sure, but the bet is they will revert to the mean.

OriginalPouzar

jp: Yeah definitely agree the Drasiaitl line won’t run *that* hot going forward.

Still, I’m not sure 2 lines over 60% is reasonable/necessary. McDavid’s only been 60%GF once in his career.
And only 36 forwards in the entire league were 60+GF% this season (looks like TB had 2 lines at 60%. Colorado may have had 3 (!). No other team had 2 lines over 60%).
Last year there were 34 total forwards over 60%, I don’t think any team had more than 4 of them.

Anyway, all that to say two lines over 60% is way above what “real competitive” teams (or cup winning teams) usually have I think.

McDavid was just 50%GF in 2020 but on the season:
McDavid with Kassian (and no Draisaitl) was 58% GF.
And McDavid with no Kassian and no Draisaitl was 54% GF.

He also had a 1004 PDO in 2020, which is fine but lower than any of his last 4 full seasons (he’s overall 1017 in that span). So he was likely a bit unlucky in 2020.

I’m not sure Holland needs to do anything aside from bring back the players he has under control to have two 55%GF lines. Figure out how to stop the bleeding from the 3rd and that looks like a real competitive team. (that’s my opinion, I know many disagree)

Maybe two 60% plus lines insn’t reasonable but you do mention that 36 forwards were at 60% plus – shouldn’t McDavid be one of those players? Oubviously he can’t do it “on his own”, and the other players certainly don’t, but being the best offensive player in the game and the highest cap hit in the game, I do expect the Oilers to dominate the goal scoring ratio when Connor is one the ice.

No, two 60% plus lines is probably not reasonable but this team is top heavy and are still a year away from being able to acquire enough skilled offensive depth to create balance through the lineup to rely on even a 50% 3rd line let alone 4th line.

The top end has to carry extra weight.

Fuge Udvar

Harpers Hair,

It seems like you are falling for the heuristic bias of substitution.

When our brains are faced with a question we couldn’t possibly know the answer to (like say.. what decision somebody we have never met before is going to make) our brain (specifically the unconscious part) will substitute an easier question that it can answer (such as what decision would I make if I were that person).

Fuge Udvar

leadfarmer: Also known as the Tavares Warning

Considering the Isles are in the conference finals and the Leafs got knocked out in the play ins. I hope Nuge takes the Tavares Warning!

jp

jp:
For comparison Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38 over the past 3 seasons

That’s better than every one of the $2.5M-$4M UFAs signed in the past 2 years except for David Perron.

jp

jp:
There’s not that many players out there for $3M that are decent bets to score 30 goals.

On Athanasiou and his value at $3M. Covid Cap throws a wrench in things, we know prices will be somewhat lower this year. By how much we don’t know.

But just perusing what $3M has bought teams on the FA market in recent years. It’s easy to forget.

Forwards signed for $2,500,000 to $4,00,000 in July 2019:
Colin Wilson 2.6M X 1 30yo Played 9 games (best season was 20-22-42 back in 14-15)
Joonas Donskoi 3.9M X 4 27yo 65-16-17-33 (career high 14-23-37)
Richard Panik 2.75M X 4 28yo 59-9-13-22 (once scored 22-22-44)
Brandon Tanev 3.5M X 6 27yo 68-11-14-25 (career high 14-15-29)
Valtteri Filppula 3M X 2 35yo 70-6-15-21 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
Brett Connolly 3.5M X 4 27yo 69-19-14-33 (career high 22-24-46)
Micheal Ferland 3.5M X 4 27yo only 14GP unfortunately (career high 21-20-41)
Ryan Dzingel 3.375M X 2 27yo 69-8-21-29 (career high just before signing 26-30-56)

In July 2018:
Antoine Roussel 3M X 4 29yo 106-16-28-44 (career high 14-15-29)
Sven Baertchi 3.366M X 3 27yo 35GP over 2 seasons (career high 18-17-35)
Jay Beagle 3M X 4 32yo 112-5-16-21 (career high 13-17-30)
Leo Komarov 3M X 4 31yo 130-10-30-40 (career high 19-17-36)
Michael Grabner 3.35M X 3 30yo 87-17-10-27 (career high 27-13-40)
Riley Nash 2.75M X 3 29yo 142-8-18-26 (career high 15-26-41)
Valtteri Filppula 2.75M X 1 34yo 72-17-14-31 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
David Perron 4M X 4 30yo 128-48-58-106 (career high 16-50-66) Great, great signing apparently.
Matt Calvert 2.85 X 3 28y 132-23-28-51 (career high 11-15-26)

For comparison Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38 over the past 3 seasons (that’s including the most recent shit show).

AA looks to me like a great bet to cover $3M in a normal year. $3M doesn’t buy much on the open market. He’s probably (IMO) worth that in a Covid year too.

And Kassian too for that matter, his deal doesn’t really look like an overpay relative to UFA going rates (which is not to say that means it’s a good deal).

jp

OriginalPouzar: Absolutely, it was but I don’t think we can relay on that line having a 77% goal shares over time.

It might be reasonable to suggest they are a 60%-63% goal share line but 77% seems unsustainable.

The team needs McDavid’s line to be 60% plus goal share over time in order to be a real competitive team.

At least in my opinion.

Yeah definitely agree the Drasiaitl line won’t run *that* hot going forward.

Still, I’m not sure 2 lines over 60% is reasonable/necessary. McDavid’s only been 60%GF once in his career.
And only 36 forwards in the entire league were 60+GF% this season (looks like TB had 2 lines at 60%. Colorado may have had 3 (!). No other team had 2 lines over 60%).
Last year there were 34 total forwards over 60%, I don’t think any team had more than 4 of them.

Anyway, all that to say two lines over 60% is way above what “real competitive” teams (or cup winning teams) usually have I think.

McDavid was just 50%GF in 2020 but on the season:
McDavid with Kassian (and no Draisaitl) was 58% GF.
And McDavid with no Kassian and no Draisaitl was 54% GF.

He also had a 1004 PDO in 2020, which is fine but lower than any of his last 4 full seasons (he’s overall 1017 in that span). So he was likely a bit unlucky in 2020.

I’m not sure Holland needs to do anything aside from bring back the players he has under control to have two 55%GF lines. Figure out how to stop the bleeding from the 3rd and that looks like a real competitive team. (that’s my opinion, I know many disagree)

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Also known as the Tavares Warning

Well, if the Oilers finish 7th in the division next year, like NYI did in JT’s last season there…..

jp

Jaxon:
I would take a serious look at Haula for 3C. And I’d let him try to find chemistry with Neal again. Haula centered Perron and Neal in 2017-2018 (just 2 years ago) in Vegas and they were great together. With Perron as their setup guy. Perron had 16 goals and 50! assists. Haula had 29! goals and 26 assists, while Neal had 25! goals and 19 assists. That’s a 70 goal line against pretty tough competition! What did our 3rd line have this year? Maybe 30 if we’re generous? If Tyler Benson has the playmaker abilities that he has been touted for, I think he could help provide similar results. Haula and Neal were 51.88CF% in 709 minutes together at 5v5. They had 39 5v5 goals (Perron 8g / Haula 14g / Neal 17g at 5v5). That would be an amazing 3rd line! I don’t think Edmonton’s 3rd line got even 15 goals.

Athanasiou / McDavid / Puljujarvi (Kassian)
Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Benson / Haula / Neal

I’d also still give Athanasiou another big chance with McDavid. I don’t think anyone should expect instant chemistry with McDavid. He’s too unique a player. They’re both unique players. Maybe that’s why they might not find any, but I think you have to give it a bigger chance. That could be lightning in a bottle. Finding quick chemistry doesn’t mean the ceiling will be higher. I think Athanasiou could score a ton with McDavid. He scored 30 with way lesser linemates just 2 years ago and he’s still quite young (turned 26 1 month ago).

I agree on both points.

We shouldn’t get carried away with those Vegas results but I’d be very happy if Holland managed to add Haula. My guess is he’ll be priced out of the Oilers range though. That aside, he scores well, wins face-offs and his PK results have been very good (you do have to go back a ways, but that’s mostly on Vegas using him as 2C instead of bottom 6/PK). I’m pretty surprised Woodguy has such a gap between him and Bozak as 3C options.

And Athanasiou. I’d like to see him get a proper chance to find a role with the Oilers as well. Hopefully with McDavid, but maybe with Draisaitl or even Haula/Bozak/other. There’s not that many players out there for $3M that are decent bets to score 30 goals.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: I would think that, after being through the decade of darkness and multiple managers and coaches (so many coaches) that the player would prefer not to leave just as the organization seems to be stabilizing and the on-ice success starting to begin.

Also known as the Tavares Warning

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: Ken Holland has been here for 16 months. Nuge isn’t 38.

I would think that, after being through the decade of darkness and multiple managers and coaches (so many coaches) that the player would prefer not to leave just as the organization seems to be stabilizing and the on-ice success starting to begin.

leadfarmer

Jaxon:
Neal on Haula during the Vegas playoff run in 2018:

“I got to know him really well this year,” Neal said of Haula. “I became good friends with him and worked really well with him on the ice. It’s been a fun combination. He’s underrated for how fast he is, his shot and his skill level. He’s a good player.”

How many players have had a career year in that Vegas inaugural season
Haula, marchessault, karlsson, fleury, Miller, Engelland all had their career years and didn’t come close to replicating
Durability has been an issue the last couple seasons
Definitely better option than leftover red wings scrub

DieHard

leadfarmer:
I think the Odds of him re-signing are about 70%
Contract is going to come in at 7×7-7.5 per
Probably what he’d get on the open market
Don’t think even the Wild would give him 8 per

Would this be as 2nd line center. He has a lot of tools but is not good at draws.

DieHard

OriginalPouzar: or what if Benson gets a shot at 1LW and puts up 40 plus points or JP does something similar.

Lots and lots of factors that we simply don’t know at this point but I would say that, with the current team, the player most likely to develop in to a “must-protect” over the next season is Jones.

If a forward or two “pop” as well then they will likely need to go 7-3-1 and either move a d-man from the left side (Klef, Nurse, Jones) or make a deal with Seattle.

Of course, if Jones does indeed progress, next off-season is the time to move on from one of those 3 lefties for real value in any event.

Then you are trying to move a must protect D to another team that they then must protect. I can’t see that happening. But maybe.

jp

Harpers Hair: Seattle is going to walk into the league with tens of millions in cap space and, given the Covid suppression of salaries, will be able to lay waste to any organization they choose to.

So you’re envisioning offer sheets to Pettersson, Hughes and Rafferty?

Jaxon

Neal on Haula during the Vegas playoff run in 2018:

“I got to know him really well this year,” Neal said of Haula. “I became good friends with him and worked really well with him on the ice. It’s been a fun combination. He’s underrated for how fast he is, his shot and his skill level. He’s a good player.”

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: Vegas was a warning shot across the bow of the nhl
They had no pressure on them, Seattle will
Vegas taught teams of what not to do
Vegas had the benefit of coming in during a period of transition
Teams are going to hang on to players that can play with speed

Seattle walks into this with all the cards.

Jaxon

I would take a serious look at Haula for 3C. And I’d let him try to find chemistry with Neal again. Haula centered Perron and Neal in 2017-2018 (just 2 years ago) in Vegas and they were great together. With Perron as their setup guy. Perron had 16 goals and 50! assists. Haula had 29! goals and 26 assists, while Neal had 25! goals and 19 assists. That’s a 70 goal line against pretty tough competition! What did our 3rd line have this year? Maybe 30 if we’re generous? If Tyler Benson has the playmaker abilities that he has been touted for, I think he could help provide similar results. Haula and Neal were 51.88CF% in 709 minutes together at 5v5. They had 39 5v5 goals (Perron 8g / Haula 14g / Neal 17g at 5v5). That would be an amazing 3rd line! I don’t think Edmonton’s 3rd line got even 15 goals.

Athanasiou / McDavid / Puljujarvi (Kassian)
Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
Benson / Haula / Neal

I’d also still give Athanasiou another big chance with McDavid. I don’t think anyone should expect instant chemistry with McDavid. He’s too unique a player. They’re both unique players. Maybe that’s why they might not find any, but I think you have to give it a bigger chance. That could be lightning in a bottle. Finding quick chemistry doesn’t mean the ceiling will be higher. I think Athanasiou could score a ton with McDavid. He scored 30 with way lesser linemates just 2 years ago and he’s still quite young (turned 26 1 month ago).

Harpers Hair

Lowetide: I think the idea of a scramble to save Nuge or keep McDavid from asking out frames it incorrectly. In 2019-20, Bear,Yamamoto and Jones have arrived.

So one pipeline is delivering.

The McDavid-Draisaitl-Nurse pipeline is pumping at premium levels and should be for 5+ seasons.

The Nuge-Klefbom-Larsson pipeline, a pipeline Edmonton hasn’t enjoyed (Vancouver has) for years and years, is now pushing from the other end.

The Oilers are approaching something that resembles normal roster construction. That’s a big deal.

The idea that Holland has to sacrifice the pick, a prospect and a cow in order for Nuge to re-sign here isn’t really the point.

Building it properly is the goal. If you do that, those things take care of themselves. Nuge is an important part of the future, that older group (27-30) is the first one since (I think) Smyth-Hemsky.

I think pushing for a one-off season of success is more dangerous than building brick by brick.

The Oilers have been building brick by brick for more than a decade.

Nuge strikes me as a sentient being.

Just another brick in the wall doesn’t seem to me to be a motivating factor for a player who might want to win something in his hockey lifetime.

leadfarmer

It’s easy to assume what Vegas did was expected instead of something truly remarkable
The result was truly out of left field
It was done on the back of godlike goalering which fleury couldn’t do before or since

leadfarmer

Harpers Hair: Seattle has a cutting edge analytics department and a very smart GM.

Under the circumstances, they should select the minimum of 20 available picks and poach the top free agents made available by desperate teams.

They will make out like bandits.

Vegas was a warning shot across the bow of the nhl
They had no pressure on them, Seattle will
Vegas taught teams of what not to do
Vegas had the benefit of coming in during a period of transition
Teams are going to hang on to players that can play with speed

Harpers Hair

leadfarmer: They also won’t get the benefit of teams overpaying with prospects and picksto protect their players.Losing a Jason Zucker type and getting the cap space is all of a sudden a better deal

Seattle has a cutting edge analytics department and a very smart GM.

Under the circumstances, they should select the minimum of 20 available picks and poach the top free agents made available by desperate teams.

They will make out like bandits.

leadfarmer

I think the Odds of him re-signing are about 70%
Contract is going to come in at 7×7-7.5 per
Probably what he’d get on the open market
Don’t think even the Wild would give him 8 per

OriginalPouzar

jp: Not disagreeing with your overall point, but regarding ‘not going anywhere’. Recall the team was far better with McDavid/Draisaitl split, even though McDavid was only at 50%. (6th in the league in points % and in the black on 5v5 goals for the first time since 2016-17).

Absolutely, it was but I don’t think we can relay on that line having a 77% goal shares over time.

It might be reasonable to suggest they are a 60%-63% goal share line but 77% seems unsustainable.

The team needs McDavid’s line to be 60% plus goal share over time in order to be a real competitive team.

At least in my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

godot10: There is very little risk of losing Nugent-Hopkins if he goes supernova against playing with Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

The Oilers would be the only organization willing to pay for that production since they have “the line”.

However, if Tippett plays Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid and instead of being a 100 point player with Draisaitl, and is only a 75 point player with McDavid, then losing Nugent-Hopkins to a competitive bid becomes possible.

Or Nuge is re-signed before the season even starts or early therein.