Here Come The Warm Jets

Dave Tippett’s regular season had a lot of shining moments and the post-season thought process shouldn’t take away from a strong first season for the coach. What does he need to build on for next season?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

What was his record? The first Tippett Oilers were on pace for 96 points, that would have been the highest point total for an Edmonton team since 2016-17.

What was his biggest accomplishment? I’ll say his handling of unproven talent. Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones played well and were slotted into feature roles. There are 12 foundation positions (top two lines, top two pairings, No. 3 center, No. 1 goalie). Three new solutions to foundation positions arrive from the AHL in one season? That’s a big deal. Jones doesn’t play top-4D yet but he showed he can when the team trades one of Klefbom or Nurse. I don’t think that day arrives in 2020.

What else? Special teams were brilliant, we’ll be quoting the numbers from last season for years. In Todd McLellan’s first season, Oilers had 43 power-play goals (6 GA on the PP, +37), 48 GA when on the PK (5 goals for, -43)

Under Tippett this year? 59 power-play goals (10 GA on the PP, +49), 31 GA when on the PK (3 goals for, -28).

What does that mean? In 2015-16, McLellan’s first year, Edmonton went 48-54 (-6) on special teams. In 2019-20, Tippett’s first year, the Oilers delivered 62-41 (+21) with the man advantage. That’s a fantastic season by Tippett’s gang.

Even strength must have been a mess. McLellan’s first team was 155-188, -33. Tippett’s, in fewer games of course, went 160-173, -13. Improved, but plenty of work to do.

Where would you start? Goaltending. Oilers had a .9055 overall SP (No. 14), .908 five on five SP (No. 22). Improve the even strength save percentage, add some points, finish higher in the standings. Too simple an explanation but the goaltending needs to be upgraded.

And Ken Holland signs Adam Cracknell. Great! I’ve seen a few tweets fretting over the signing, it’s kind of silly. Cracknell played in the KHL last season, that’s the best league in Europe and many feel it’s the second best league in the world. He played center, scored 10-14-24 in 52 games, went 26-25 at even strength on ice goal differential, scored 7-2-1 EV-PP-PK goals and averaged 17:35 a night. Teams have to find veteran forwards who can play center in the minors, it’s the reason Josh Currie’s minor league salary was $160,000 last season. You. Need. Centers. in the AHL.

Yeah but the 50-man, man. They won’t be able to pick up that good forward who is on waivers for the first time! Okay, among folks who write about the Oilers the only person who follows the waiver wire more closely than me is Willis. So, allow me to let you in on a little secret. The Oilers aren’t going to take Daniel Sprong on waivers because they like Kailer Yamamoto more, Josh Archibald can do more things plus Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson do other things. Here’s what Holland’s white board might look like today:

See! They’re screwed! NO they’re not! The list above contains four goalies, 15 defensemen (Broberg a possible slide) and 22 forwards. That’s 41 names, 40 if Broberg stays in Sweden. Edmonton can add seven or eight names and still have room.

Daniel Sprong was the one, too. I just know it. I hate you.

I would suggest to you that Mr. Rishaug has cornered the truth in regard to Jesse Puljujarvi’s future. I’ll guess he fetches a pick inside the top 40, that Holland hopes Jan Mysak is available but settles for Jake Neighbours instead. Neighbours is a fine young prospect but that’s a bitter pill for value-wise consumers.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A big day on TSN1260, beginning at 10. We have Frank Seravalli at 10:20 and Jason Gregor at 11, we’ll breakdown the playoffs, the trade market and drill down on Ken Holland’s summer and Jesse Puljujarvi’s future. We’ll also have the $20,000 Mystery Moment at 10:15, your chance to win cash with that gigantic sports brain of yours. Text in at 10-1260 with the secret word, then we’ll call you, play a clip from a famous sports moment and ask you for a detailed answer. Use all the words! Reach me @Lowetide on via text at 10-1260. Tune in and win!

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132 Responses to "Here Come The Warm Jets"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    Trading JP to recover some picks because of a bad trade made by the GM is a very Oilers thing to do.

  2. stevebergeron97 says:

    Looks like Bouchard is headed to the Allsvenskan!

  3. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    leadfarmer:
    Trading JP to recover some picks because of a bad trade made by the GM is a very Oilers thing to do.

    Yeah, the Oilers bleed and waste so much opportunity and talent it is nauseating…and we the fans basically come to expect it. No matter who is in charge.

  4. Marc says:

    leadfarmer:
    Trading JP to recover some picks because of a bad trade made by the GM is a very Oilers thing to do.

    I hope that JP joins the team and doubt they can get anything close to equivalent value in a trade.

    That said, the expansion draft means that even if he joins the team JP is unlikely to be an Oiler for more than one season. Or if he is then Jones is not.

    There’s an argument for turning 1 year of JP into something that at least has the potential to be around a lot longer.

    On the other hand a contending team should happily lose a player for nothing if that player makes them materially better, which JP absolutely could.

  5. Paulie says:

    One of my favorite things about this Blog are the 1970s musical references. Here Come the Warm Jets is one of my favorite Eno albums. Robert Fripp gets the credit for the incendiary solo on the classic song Baby’s On Fire, but for my money that solo sounds an awful lot like the way Paul Rudolph played back then, esp, in his live Pink Fairies days. Eno did so much processing on the album that it’s possible he blended in work from both guitarists.

  6. Todd Macallan says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Looks like Bouchard is headed to the Allsvenskan!

    Great news! General question, are other teams being as successful as Holland and the Oilers in finding landing spots for their top prospects to start the season?

  7. jp says:

    stevebergeron97:
    Looks like Bouchard is headed to the Allsvenskan!

    That is interesting. They allow out clauses IIRC (unlike the SHL).

    To this point the only players headed to Europe for the season are the guys who aren’t likely call-up options (or European players who can return when things start up). I assume Bouchard can/will return when the NHL resumes play.

  8. Todd Macallan says:

    Todd Macallan: Great news! Looks like more Swedishposter reporting to look forward to.

    General question, are other teams being as successful as Holland and the Oilers in finding landing spots for their top prospects to start the season?

  9. jp says:

    Nice article and convo LT.

    96 points is a quality season, and represents progress. It should be repeated.

    And adding 3 young foundational pieces from the system (a late 1st, a 4th and a 5th at that) is a big deal.

    Nice season by the team and by Tippett, with a little damper at the end. The larger body of work remains solid though.

  10. Harpers Hair says:

    Jack Michaels (@EdmontonJack) Tweeted:
    The Edmonton Oilers have loaned forward Gaetan Haas to SC Bern of the Swiss National League and defenceman Evan Bouchard to Sodertalje SK of the Swedish Allsvenskan for the beginning of the 2020-21 season.

  11. Woogie63 says:

    The hard news is too few 22 year old millionaire choose to work in Edmonton in the winter.

    EVERY player coming off their ELC must sign a salary controlled contract or they will choose brighter lights, more often than not.

    To establish this business principles with Puljujarvi is much more valuable than a 2nd round pick.

    Play for the Oilers or stay on Europe is the only option for JP.

  12. Harpers Hair says:

    Terry Jones (@byterryjones) Tweeted:
    A wise international hockey man told me when I was in Europe for the last lockout: “If you’re going for the money, go to the KHL. If you’re going for the holiday, go to Switzerland. If you’re going for the hockey, go to Sweden.”

  13. leadfarmer says:

    That is going to be a lot of games this year for these young guys if they come back to the NHL this winter

  14. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Trade down to add a low-1st and a 2nd, trade Puljujarvi for a couple picks, grab Greig/Reichel, Robins (he’s a must), and Finley/Evangelista.

  15. Eh Team says:

    leadfarmer: That is going to be a lot of games this year for these young guys if they come back to the NHL this winter

    The NH: is pretty uncertain for next year too. Maybe much more realistic is a shortened season (like baseball) and same playoff set up as this year.

  16. Elgin R says:

    Tippet overthought it and got burned. He broke up the best line in hockey and started his second best goalie. Not the actions expected from a veteran coach.

    JP: No GM has offered anything that Holland will take so what has changed? COVID cap? He has value to the Oilers over and above a selection of meh draft picks. Best case is JP decides to play for the Oilers this year (yes please). Even if he stays in Finland for another year he is still Kraken bait. Building an expansion team is generally a long process (Vegas excluded – great work by them) and having a talented 23 year-old RW is a good place to start.

    This is the year to keep the powder dry. 2021 / 2022 is the season to go for it.

  17. flyfish1168 says:

    All these players heading over I am concern. Let’s hope they arrive home healthy and safe.

  18. Elgin R says:

    Woogie63,

    Absolutely. What is with GMs giving out big contacts after completion of a 3-year ELC? Player’s have no arbitration rights for their next contract, so offer a team-friendly long term deal or just the QO. They can play in the NHL or not – their choice.

    JP: Cannot find his salary for last year with Karpat, but probably in the range of $150K – 200k Euros tax free. $200k Euros tax free is equal to less than a $500k salary (before taxes) in the NHL. Give him the choice: play for the Oilers for $1m x 1 or stay in Finland.

  19. godot10 says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    Trade down to add a low-1st and a 2nd, trade Puljujarvi for a couple picks, grab Greig/Reichel, Robins (he’s a must), and Finley/Evangelista.

    The OIlers can draft a good centre at #14. A trade down means a winger. They can trade Puljujarvi and Benning and maybe Athanasiou for 2nd and 3rd round picks.

  20. godot10 says:

    Elgin R:
    Woogie63,

    Absolutely.What is with GMs giving out big contacts after completion of a 3-year ELC?Player’s have no arbitration rights for their next contract, so offer a team-friendly long term deal or just the QO.They can play in the NHL or not – their choice.

    JP:Cannot find his salary for last year with Karpat, but probably in the range of $150K – 200k Euros tax free.$200k Euros tax free is equal to less than a $500k salary (before taxes) in the NHL.Give him the choice:play for the Oilers for $1m x 1 or stay in Finland.

    A $1 million dollar salary next year in the NHL is $700K in actual dollars…20% escrow, 10% deferment. 50% taxes…you end up with $350K.

  21. godot10 says:

    Would the Blackhawks do Saad for Khaira to free up cap space?

  22. Elgin R says:

    godot10,

    True – forgot about escrow etc. So the numbers are probably around $115k apart as $200k Euros is $235 USD and i am just guessing on JP’s Karpat salary.

    However, if JP wants to make big NHL dollars in the future he has to come back at some point.

  23. godot10 says:

    I think my prime target for the off-season is still Granlund.

    I’d trade Neal for Turris if Nashville would retain 10%.

    I’d trade Larsson for Anderssen.

    Draft a centre at #14.

  24. Woogie63 says:

    I see lots of interesting trading partners for the Oilers this year. The most interesting are;

    Tampa Bay – they have to sign 8 players and $5.3M in free cap space, three of the RFA they need to sign are Sergachev, Cirelli and Mitchell – Something good has to give. They are not getting Shattenkirk, Bogosian for a Matt Benning contract next year, I don’t care how good the taxes are.

    Ottawa – they have to sign 14 players and have $39.6M and 9 picks in the first 3 rounds. They had $19M of salary on injury reserve last year. – Those picks can be had for real NHL players.

  25. Elgin R says:

    godot10,

    Brandan Saad makes $6m for 1 more year. Historic per 82 is 29.5 pts at 5 x 5 with 50.6% OZ starts lat two years (per hockey-reference). Would be a nice add but not at $6m. I would rather Nygard / Ennis / AA played those minutes. Also, if Holland does not sign Sheahan, Khaira will be needed for PK.

  26. Woogie63 says:

    Elgin R,

    2016 Draft Class – top 10 how are they getting paid

    Matthews $11.6M
    Laine $6.7M
    Dubois $.897M – new contract in the $6M range?
    Puljujarvi $.300 Euro
    Juolevi .$863M
    Tkachuk $7.0M
    Keller $7.1M
    Nylander $.863M
    Sergachev $.894 – new contract in the $5M range
    Jost $.885

    No way to increase his salary unless he works with Holland, everyone can see money is left on the table. I wonder how long until JP fires his agent, the agent has badly over played their hand.

  27. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Elgin R:
    Woogie63,

    Absolutely.What is with GMs giving out big contacts after completion of a 3-year ELC?Player’s have no arbitration rights for their next contract, so offer a team-friendly long term deal or just the QO.They can play in the NHL or not – their choice.

    JP:Cannot find his salary for last year with Karpat, but probably in the range of $150K – 200k Euros tax free.$200k Euros tax free is equal to less than a $500k salary (before taxes) in the NHL.Give him the choice:play for the Oilers for $1m x 1 or stay in Finland.

    yup. Tough love.

  28. JimmyV1965 says:

    Elgin R:
    godot10,

    Brandan Saad makes $6m for 1 more year.Historic per 82 is 29.5 pts at 5 x 5 with 50.6% OZ starts lat two years (per hockey-reference).Would be a nice add but not at $6m.I would rather Nygard / Ennis / AA played those minutes.Also, if Holland does not sign Sheahan, Khaira will be needed for PK.

    Saad is 46th in EV pts in the NHL with 196 since the 2015-16 season. We are not getting him for Khaira.

  29. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Saad is 46th in EV pts in the NHL with 196 since the 2015-16 season. We are not getting him for Khaira.

    Chicago is extremely cap-stressed.

  30. DieHard says:

    Don’t see why JP can’t return a late 1st. Ready made top 9 or better. Could be better odds of success than that late first. I really don’t think he’ll play for us.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: Chicago is extremely cap-stressed.

    There are many many teams that could easily offer more. A second round pick would have more value. The only value Khaira brings is the PK. He scored 6 goals this year with 4 of them coming in a six-game span in November. Beyond meh.

  32. dustrock says:

    If the NHL isn’t coming back until Jan/Feb, then it makes sense for guys like Bouchard to play anywhere.

  33. flea says:

    Wondering if JP would be a decent return in a Matt Murray trade. I think they’d have to bundle a pick too so likely they move out another guy to get that 2nd rounder. JP/2nd rounder for Murray

    I really want the Oilers to get Murray, think it would be a perfect fit.

    Who knows, maybe the Kraken take Koskinen in the expansion draft too. They’ll need a goalie and Koskinen is a short term, low risk option who has good numbers.

  34. Munny says:

    godot10: Chicago is extremely cap-stressed.

    I’d been thinking for weeks about what it would take to get Strome out of there.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Jones doesn’t play top-4D yet but he showed he can when the team trades one of Klefbom or Nurse. I don’t think that day arrives in 2020.”

    I agree with this. I think there is a general fan/media “over-reaction” to the play of Klef, Nurse (and Larsson) in the play-in round. Don’t get me wrong, it was not good, not even close to good enough and I’m not excusing it, however, its simply not representative of their general levels of play.

    The depth on the left side is an asset and, at some point, will be used as acquisition assets but, as far as trading from the top end, I believe they need some more development/establishment from the likes of Jones.

    Filling in well (very well) for Klef in 10 games is not akin to replacing 25 minutes of ice time in all-situation per night.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Even strength must have been a mess. McLellan’s first team was 155-188, -33. Tippett’s, in fewer games of course, went 160-173, -13. Improved, but plenty of work to do.”

    I would note that, if I remember correctly, this was MUCH improved in 2020 after Kailer’s call-up and Drai moved off McDavid’s wing.

    More improvement is clearly needed but that started to happen earlier this calendar year – the acquisition of a couple offensive wingers at the deadline was supposed to help – we wait on AA.

  37. Material Elvis says:

    DieHard:
    Don’t see why JP can’t return a late 1st. Ready made top 9 or better. Could be better odds of success than that late first. I really don’t think he’ll play for us.

    Your last sentence sums it up: he won’t play for the team who drafted him. There are many GM’s across the league who wouldn’t even considered trading for a guy like that, never mind parting with a first rounder for him. He didn’t score well enough to create that demand.

  38. SwedishPoster says:

    They keep finding good spots for the guys. Allsvenskan allows for short term contracts so Bouchard will be back for camp. It’s a much more open league compared to the SHL so he should thrive with his offensive skills, it’s ofc a step down in quality vs the SHL, pretty close in pace but not nearly as tactical, wouldn’t be surprised if he could be near ppg if given the ice time. That’s an if though, the short term guys are likely not the no 1 priority, he’s going to get top 4 minutes I’m sure, he should be too good for them to not give him proper toi, but I doubt he gets really big minutes. Can’t really build around someone who leaves mid-season. Unless he’s so much better than the alternatives that they’d be stupid not to play the crap out of him.

    Allsvenskan is an underrated league, not that far off finnish Liiga in quality, the top teams in Finland are clearly better but the bottom teams in Liiga and Allsvenskan top teams are pretty close.

    I wouldn’t say it’s an ideal spot but considering how many players there are out there searching for a place to play this fall it’s pretty damn impressive by Holland et al.

    Södertälje isn’t that far off Stockholm so if they start letting people into the stands I’ll try to go see a game. There’s talk of letting crowds of 500 into games starting october, they’ll probably just allow season ticket holders in though so it’s doubtful I could find myself a seat but we’ll see.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Dear people: If there is medical malfeasance, please show the link. I think you should know this, but am posting it just in case.

    If there isn’t, and you just want to sewer reputations, do it on your own blog.

    Thanks.

  40. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    Would Strome really be more likely to get traded than (say) Saad? He seems like such a good fit, and the right age to grow with the team.

    I’d say that would be a counter productive cap dump, but they’ve shed enough talent after their recent annual Cup runs to make even an Oilers fan blush.

    Panarin
    Saad
    Byfuglien
    Sharp
    Ladd
    Leddy
    Teräväinen
    Hjalmarsson
    Campbell
    Niemi

    Et cetera.

    Oh my.

    Maybe Bowman would gift us a win.

  41. Primetime says:

    I’m not sure if the 2021 expansion draft enters Holland’s mind at all this offseason, but it is interesting to consider potential consequences for the Oil. Interested on people’s initial thoughts on best course of action.

    Current Players to protect:

    FWD: McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH (assuming signed), Yamamoto
    D: Klefbom, Nurse, Bear (I wouldn’t protect Larson even if re-signed)

    So would you go 8-1 or 7-3-1 from here?

    If you trade for another forward (eg.Domi, Granlund, Ehlers) you will be forced to go 7-3-1 and risk losing Caleb Jones (if one of the top 3 D is not part of the trade)

    If you make no new acquisitions of consequence, would protecting Jones (8-1) be smarter than risking one of JP or AA? Are those 2 worth protecting more than Jones?

  42. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Primetime,

    Bottom pairing defensemen typically play more than 3rd line forwards.

    Parse that for value as you will.

  43. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Even strength must have been a mess. McLellan’s first team was 155-188, -33. Tippett’s, in fewer games of course, went 160-173, -13. Improved, but plenty of work to do.”

    I would note that, if I remember correctly, this was MUCH improved in 2020 after Kailer’s call-up and Drai moved off McDavid’s wing.

    More improvement is clearly needed but that started to happen earlier this calendar year – the acquisition of a couple offensive wingers at the deadline was supposed to help – we wait on AA.

    Yup.

    With Kailer Yamamoto (last 30 team games):
    69GF-65GA +4 goals 51.5GF% (12th of 31 teams)

    Good arrows post Christmas, aside from that last bit.

  44. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Munny,

    To CHI:
    Koskinen ($4.5M), JP’s rights, EDM 2020 3rd round pick via CGY (due to condition of CHI receiving the highest 2020 3rd held by CGY)

    To EDM:
    Crawford’s rights, Strome’s rights

    That’s it.

    The loss of CHI’s 3C is clearly contingent on Shaw returning next season to take over from Strome.

    Guaranteed win for Bowman on paper day 1, but big time potential paydirt for Holland if the negotiations go well. Plus we sort of get to stick it to CGY in the process, so that’s always a plus. Clearly due diligence would have to be undertaken but there’s potential value for both sides. Or maybe I’ve lost the plot.

    *note: I have not considered how we’d fit the incoming contract extensions into our cap scheme, but that’s the sort of thing you’d make work. Non?

  45. Munny says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Would Strome really be more likely to get traded than (say) Saad?

    Oh Gord, no. But he’s the name I would be pushing for.

    In the “rush for the exits”, it all depends on which GMs are lucky enough to make it through the exits first. Will the Hawks move quick enough to make the deal they want to make… or will they be forced into making a deal they don’t want to make?

    You have to have several of these conversations going around the League so you can take advantage of whichever ones turn out to be the unlucky.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marc: I hope that JP joins the team and doubt they can get anything close to equivalent value in a trade.

    That said, the expansion draft means that even if he joins the team JP is unlikely to be an Oiler for more than one season. Or if he is then Jones is not.

    There’s an argument for turning 1 year of JP into something that at least has the potential to be around a lot longer.

    On the other hand a contending team should happily lose a player for nothing if that player makes them materially better, which JP absolutely could.

    I agree with the beginning of your post – best case scenario in my opinion is for Jesse to come to camp, presumably earn a roster spot and put together a solid NHL season (or maybe even a great NHL season). The current trade value is dwarfed by the potential on-ice value.

    I understand the concerns and premise regarding the expansion draft. With that said, if Jesse does put together a season that warrants his protection over the likes of AA, Benson, Kassian, etc (i.e. the fifth forward protected) and in the conversation with Jones, etc., that would mean there is very good trade value there which would open up certain options:

    1) trade Jesse for value (given increased value) and stick with 4-4-1

    2) if Jones has indeed taken that next step, perhaps a trade of one of Jones, Klef or Nurse makes sense next off-season

  47. DieHard says:

    Primetime:
    I’m not sure if the 2021 expansion draft enters Holland’s mind at all this offseason, but it is interesting to consider potential consequences for the Oil.Interested on people’s initial thoughts on best course of action.

    Current Players to protect:

    FWD: McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH (assuming signed), Yamamoto
    D: Klefbom, Nurse, Bear (I wouldn’t protect Larson even if re-signed)

    So would you go 8-1 or 7-3-1 from here?

    If you trade for another forward (eg.Domi, Granlund, Ehlers) you will be forced to go 7-3-1 and risk losing Caleb Jones (if one of the top 3 D is not part of the trade)

    If you make no new acquisitions of consequence, would protecting Jones (8-1) be smarter than risking one of JP or AA? Are those 2 worth protecting more than Jones?

    And, what if AA pops and scores 24-30 goals and looks good and comfortable on Connors wing?

  48. London Jon says:

    flyfish1168:
    All these players heading over I am concern. Let’s hope they arrive home healthy and safe.

    Europe can be a very scary place – the sheer beauty and style of the Swedes, male and female, has driven many a young man mad (or just to very joyous distraction)

  49. JOFA says:

    When is Holland going to find a place for Benson in Europe?

  50. DieHard says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with the beginning of your post – best case scenario in my opinion is for Jesse to come to camp, presumably earn a roster spot and put together a solid NHL season (or maybe even a great NHL season). The current trade value is dwarfed by the potential on-ice value.

    I understand the concerns and premise regarding the expansion draft. With that said, if Jesse does put together a season that warrants his protection over the likes of AA, Benson, Kassian, etc (i.e. the fifth forward protected) and in the conversation with Jones, etc., that would mean there is very good trade value there which would open up certain options:

    1) trade Jesse for value (given increased value) and stick with 4-4-1

    2) if Jones has indeed taken that next step, perhaps a trade of one of Jones, Klef or Nurse makes sense next off-season

    It’s too confusing. Trade Jesse for value? Return being something not needing protection. The trade partner needing to protect. I believe a top4 LHD must go. Russell as backup. Maybe trade for vet in-season if need be.

  51. Primetime says:

    DieHard: And, what if AA pops and scores 24-30 goals and looks good and comfortable on Connors wing?

    Great! Then he becomes the 5th forward and you decide to go 7-3-1…but as of today, he looks like a 3rd line forward with speed. Would you risk losing Jones (potential top 4 D) for that?

  52. leadfarmer says:

    JOFA:
    When is Holland going to find a place for Benson in Europe?

    After training camp

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tarkus:
    Entry draft has now been moved up to Oct. 6-7.:

    https://www.tsn.ca/first-round-of-nhl-draft-to-take-place-october-6-1.1520964

    Two days to talk about the draft until free agency on October 9.

    I almost wish they’d spread it out a bit. The winter is going to be a slog without hockey – November and December, dark and dreary with no hockey or normal off-season news (likely some Return to Play news).

    Hopefully they can start the season in early January (i don’t imagine the early December timeline can be but who knows).

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    DieHard: It’s too confusing. Trade Jesse for value? Return being something not needing protection. The trade partner needing to protect. I believe a top4 LHD must go. Russell as backup. Maybe trade for vet in-season if need be.

    You may be right, a LD may very well need to go but I believe that is a decision for next off-season given current organizational depth and the need for another year of development (in my opinion).

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Todd Macallan: Great news! General question, are other teams being as successful as Holland and the Oilers in finding landing spots for their top prospects to start the season?

    I believe that Kekäläinen has been quite successful at placing players/prospects in European leagues.

  56. JOFA says:

    leadfarmer: After training camp

    😉

  57. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Two days to talk about the draft until free agency on October 9.

    I almost wish they’d spread it out a bit. The winter is going to be a slog without hockey – November and December, dark and dreary with no hockey or normal off-season news (likely some Return to Play news).

    Hopefully they can start the season in early January (i don’t imagine the early December timeline can be but who knows).

    I wonder if one of the sports networks will pick up broadcast rights to the SHL or KHL.

    Think it would provide a ratings winner.

  58. BONE207 says:

    Lowetide:
    Dear people: If there is medical malfeasance, please show the link. I think you should know this, but am posting it just in case.

    If there isn’t, and you just want to sewer reputations, do it on your own blog.

    Thanks.

    Hi LT…there’s no link to what I’ve got. Just a bunch of vague opinions…🤣

  59. OriginalPouzar says:

    Elgin R:
    Tippet overthought it and got burned.He broke up the best line in hockey and started his second best goalie.Not the actions expected from a veteran coach.

    JP:No GM has offered anything that Holland will take so what has changed?COVID cap?He has value to the Oilers over and above a selection of meh draft picks.Best case is JP decides to play for the Oilers this year (yes please).Even if he stays in Finland for another year he is still Kraken bait.Building an expansion team is generally a long process (Vegas excluded – great work by them) and having a talented 23 year-old RW is a good place to start.

    This is the year to keep the powder dry.2021 / 2022 is the season to go for it.

    I agree with Tippett’s premise that he need another line in addition to the Drai line. He took alot of heat for that comment on the premise that any line with McDavid is “another line”.

    That wasn’t the case in 2020 – McDavid has a 50% goal differential. If McDavid isn’t winning his minutes, the team is not going anywhere.

    While its true that any line with McDavid will produce goals but it needs to produce materially more goals it gives up.

    Where I believe Tippett made his error is on execution. Taking Nuge off the Drai line changed that line’s dynamic too much. Tip should have seen this at the end of the regular season and the focus should have been to try and find someone else on the line-up for McDavid’s wing, not as a replacement for Nuge on Drai’s line.

  60. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I agree with Tippett’s premise that he need another line in addition to the Drai line.He took alot of heat for that comment on the premise that any line with McDavid is “another line”.

    That wasn’t the case in 2020 – McDavid has a 50% goal differential.If McDavid isn’t winning his minutes, the team is not going anywhere.

    While its true that any line with McDavid will produce goals but it needs to produce materially more goals it gives up.

    Where I believe Tippett made his error is on execution. Taking Nuge off the Drai line changed that line’s dynamic too much.Tip should have seen this at the end of the regular season and the focus should have been to try and find someone else on the line-up for McDavid’s wing, not as a replacement for Nuge on Drai’s line.

    So what happens if Nuge leaves in free agency?

    I’d wager that’s about 50-50 at this point.

  61. DieHard says:

    OriginalPouzar: You may be right, a LD may very well need to go but I believe that is a decision for next off-season given current organizational depth and the need for another year of development (in my opinion).

    I totally understand the need to be sure. Would someone trade for Nurse at 5.75 for 1 year then UFA.

  62. Harpers Hair says:

    DieHard: I totally understand the need to be sure. Would someone trade for Nurse at 5.75 for 1 year then UFA.

    Both Nurse and Larsson are currently at peak value.

    Waiting a year has its costs.

  63. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: So what happens if Nuge leaves in free agency?

    I’d wager that’s about 50-50 at this point.

    You never pay when you lose mr wager man!

  64. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Both Nurse and Larsson are currently at peak value.

    Waiting a year has its costs.

    Say who other than you?

  65. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: Both Nurse and Larsson are currently at peak value.

    Waiting a year has its costs.

    Holland hedged losing Nurse (or Klefbom) in two (or three) years by drafting Broberg.

  66. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: So what happens if Nuge leaves in free agency?

    I’d wager that’s about 50-50 at this point.

    About the same chance of Nuge leaving as you growing a pair!

  67. godot10 says:

    Harpers Hair: So what happens if Nuge leaves in free agency?

    I’d wager that’s about 50-50 at this point.

    There is very little risk of losing Nugent-Hopkins if he goes supernova against playing with Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

    The Oilers would be the only organization willing to pay for that production since they have “the line”.

    However, if Tippett plays Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid and instead of being a 100 point player with Draisaitl, and is only a 75 point player with McDavid, then losing Nugent-Hopkins to a competitive bid becomes possible.

  68. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    That wasn’t the case in 2020 – McDavid has a 50% goal differential. If McDavid isn’t winning his minutes, the team is not going anywhere.

    Not disagreeing with your overall point, but regarding ‘not going anywhere’. Recall the team was far better with McDavid/Draisaitl split, even though McDavid was only at 50%. (6th in the league in points % and in the black on 5v5 goals for the first time since 2016-17).

  69. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: So what happens if Nuge leaves in free agency?

    I’d wager that’s about 50-50 at this point.

    I’d wager it’s less likely than Markstrom leaving the Canucks with only a hope and a prayer in net.

  70. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: So what happens if Nuge leaves in free agency?

    I’d wager that’s about 50-50 at this point.

    I don’t think that’s a reasonable representation of the situation.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10:
    Would the Blackhawks do Saad for Khaira to free up cap space?

    How would the Oilers free up the $5M in extra cap?

    $6M for a 40ish point winger……. he’s, what, 3 or 4 seasons removed from being a 50 point guy.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    I see lots of interesting trading partners for the Oilers this year.The most interesting are;

    Tampa Bay – they have to sign 8 players and $5.3M in free cap space, three of the RFA they need to sign are Sergachev, Cirelli and Mitchell – Something good has to give.They are not getting Shattenkirk, Bogosian for a Matt Benning contract next year, I don’t care how good the taxes are.

    Ottawa – they have to sign 14 players and have $39.6M and 9 picks in the first 3 rounds.They had $19M of salary on injury reserve last year. – Those picks can be had for real NHL players.

    I anticipate the Breisbois will find away to unload Tyler Jonhson.

    I’m interested in the Jackets as a trading partner. Generally I’m all for “cheeping out” on a “good bet” 1B goalie like Aaron Dell and, if there is some cap opened, spending it elsewhere.

    With that said, if the team was going to spend assets to acquire a goalie, I would prefer it to be a younger guy – Matt Murray scares me and the Jackets have a wealth in net. Either Merzlikins or Korpisalo would be of great interest to me – they go up to $4M and $2.8M of cap hit next year. Merzlikins is exempt from the expansion draft.

    To the extent Anderson is indeed a “buy low” and isn’t trying to “get paid” as speculated pre-Covid (apx $4.5M was the rumored ask), I would be very interested in a:

    Merzlikis (or Korpisalo) plus Josh Anderson type deal. We know CBJ was interested in AA at the deadline – hopefully they still are. The 2nd piece added to AA would be material, I’m not sure what but maybe there is something there.

    CBJ has higher end tending prospects in behind their two NHL guys as well – they have a wealthy.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie63:
    Elgin R,

    2016 Draft Class – top 10 how are they getting paid

    Matthews $11.6M
    Laine $6.7M
    Dubois $.897M – new contract in the $6M range?
    Puljujarvi $.300 Euro
    Juolevi .$863M
    Tkachuk $7.0M
    Keller $7.1M
    Nylander $.863M
    Sergachev $.894 – new contract in the $5M range
    Jost $.885

    No way to increase his salary unless he works with Holland, everyone can see money is left on the table.I wonder how long until JP fires his agent, the agent has badly over played their hand.

    Juolevi was making $70K (plus his signing bonus) given he’s been a fixture in Utica.

  74. Harpers Hair says:

    godot10: There is very little risk of losing Nugent-Hopkins if he goes supernova against playing with Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

    The Oilers would be the only organization willing to pay for that production since they have “the line”.

    However, if Tippett plays Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid and instead of being a 100 point player with Draisaitl, and is only a 75 point player with McDavid, then losing Nugent-Hopkins to a competitive bid becomes possible.

    Seattle is going to walk into the league with tens of millions in cap space and, given the Covid suppression of salaries, will be able to lay waste to any organization they choose to.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Primetime:
    I’m not sure if the 2021 expansion draft enters Holland’s mind at all this offseason, but it is interesting to consider potential consequences for the Oil.Interested on people’s initial thoughts on best course of action.

    Current Players to protect:

    FWD: McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH (assuming signed), Yamamoto
    D: Klefbom, Nurse, Bear (I wouldn’t protect Larson even if re-signed)

    So would you go 8-1 or 7-3-1 from here?

    If you trade for another forward (eg.Domi, Granlund, Ehlers) you will be forced to go 7-3-1 and risk losing Caleb Jones (if one of the top 3 D is not part of the trade)

    If you make no new acquisitions of consequence, would protecting Jones (8-1) be smarter than risking one of JP or AA? Are those 2 worth protecting more than Jones?

    I sure as heck hope the the expansion draft is near the front of Holland’s mind when he analyzes any potential transaction. I’m confident it is as he has mentioned the expansion draft in some of his verbals and, of course, he has been very clear that his plan looks farther that one year out.

    You’ve laid out the high level issue that arises from trading any material expansion draft exempt asset (like the 14th) for an established player (forward).

    On the assumption that Nuge is re-signed well before next off-season (which I believe to be the case) it either locks the team in to 7-3-1 and forces the trade of one of Klef, Bear, Nurse or Jones.

    I anticipate after one more season, losing Jones to expansion is an egregious scenario (as he will prove to be a legit top 4 guy).

    I’m not saying that trades can’t/shouldn’t be made to improve the team and that expansion draft is a reason not to but only that all moves need to be made in conjunction with likely ramifications next off-season.

  76. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: I don’t think that’s a reasonable representation of the situation.

    Would be interested in your take on what the odds are.

    If, as many are suggesting, the Oilers should keep their “powder dry” for another season of scrambling to be be a bubble team, what would motivate Nuge to sign on for a second decade of mediocrity?

  77. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Seattle is going to walk into the league with tens of millions in cap space and, given the Covid suppression of salaries, will be able to lay waste to any organization they choose to.

    They also won’t get the benefit of teams overpaying with prospects and picks to protect their players. Losing a Jason Zucker type and getting the cap space is all of a sudden a better deal

  78. DieHard says:

    Harpers Hair: Would be interested in your take on what the odds are.

    If, as many are suggesting, the Oilers should keep their “powder dry” for another season of scrambling to be be a bubble team, what would motivate Nuge to sign on for a second decade of mediocrity?

    I’m not LT but a question for you. What would another GM offer Nuge and what term and what position?

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    DieHard: And, what if AA pops and scores 24-30 goals and looks good and comfortable on Connors wing?

    or what if Benson gets a shot at 1LW and puts up 40 plus points or JP does something similar.

    Lots and lots of factors that we simply don’t know at this point but I would say that, with the current team, the player most likely to develop in to a “must-protect” over the next season is Jones.

    If a forward or two “pop” as well then they will likely need to go 7-3-1 and either move a d-man from the left side (Klef, Nurse, Jones) or make a deal with Seattle.

    Of course, if Jones does indeed progress, next off-season is the time to move on from one of those 3 lefties for real value in any event.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    DieHard: I totally understand the need to be sure. Would someone trade for Nurse at 5.75 for 1 year then UFA.

    It seems most think that Larsson at $4M for 1 year then UFA has value……….

    One year left to UFA does decrease trade value but, of course, permission could be given to talk contract talk with the acquiring team, etc.

  81. Harpers Hair says:

    DieHard: I’m not LT but a question for you. What would another GM offer Nuge and what term and what position?

    I would offer him $7.5 x 6

    Would the Oilers beat it?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    godot10: There is very little risk of losing Nugent-Hopkins if he goes supernova against playing with Draisaitl and Yamamoto.

    The Oilers would be the only organization willing to pay for that production since they have “the line”.

    However, if Tippett plays Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid and instead of being a 100 point player with Draisaitl, and is only a 75 point player with McDavid, then losing Nugent-Hopkins to a competitive bid becomes possible.

    Or Nuge is re-signed before the season even starts or early therein.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Not disagreeing with your overall point, but regarding ‘not going anywhere’. Recall the team was far better with McDavid/Draisaitl split, even though McDavid was only at 50%. (6th in the league in points % and in the black on 5v5 goals for the first time since 2016-17).

    Absolutely, it was but I don’t think we can relay on that line having a 77% goal shares over time.

    It might be reasonable to suggest they are a 60%-63% goal share line but 77% seems unsustainable.

    The team needs McDavid’s line to be 60% plus goal share over time in order to be a real competitive team.

    At least in my opinion.

  84. leadfarmer says:

    I think the Odds of him re-signing are about 70%
    Contract is going to come in at 7×7-7.5 per
    Probably what he’d get on the open market
    Don’t think even the Wild would give him 8 per

  85. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: They also won’t get the benefit of teams overpaying with prospects and picksto protect their players.Losing a Jason Zucker type and getting the cap space is all of a sudden a better deal

    Seattle has a cutting edge analytics department and a very smart GM.

    Under the circumstances, they should select the minimum of 20 available picks and poach the top free agents made available by desperate teams.

    They will make out like bandits.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: Would be interested in your take on what the odds are.

    If, as many are suggesting, the Oilers should keep their “powder dry” for another season of scrambling to be be a bubble team, what would motivate Nuge to sign on for a second decade of mediocrity?

    I think the idea of a scramble to save Nuge or keep McDavid from asking out frames it incorrectly. In 2019-20, Bear, Yamamoto and Jones have arrived.

    So one pipeline is delivering.

    The McDavid-Draisaitl-Nurse pipeline is pumping at premium levels and should be for 5+ seasons.

    The Nuge-Klefbom-Larsson pipeline, a pipeline Edmonton hasn’t enjoyed (Vancouver has) for years and years, is now pushing from the other end.

    The Oilers are approaching something that resembles normal roster construction. That’s a big deal.

    The idea that Holland has to sacrifice the pick, a prospect and a cow in order for Nuge to re-sign here isn’t really the point.

    Building it properly is the goal. If you do that, those things take care of themselves. Nuge is an important part of the future, that older group (27-30) is the first one since (I think) Smyth-Hemsky.

    I think pushing for a one-off season of success is more dangerous than building brick by brick.

  87. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: Seattle has a cutting edge analytics department and a very smart GM.

    Under the circumstances, they should select the minimum of 20 available picks and poach the top free agents made available by desperate teams.

    They will make out like bandits.

    Vegas was a warning shot across the bow of the nhl
    They had no pressure on them, Seattle will
    Vegas taught teams of what not to do
    Vegas had the benefit of coming in during a period of transition
    Teams are going to hang on to players that can play with speed

  88. leadfarmer says:

    It’s easy to assume what Vegas did was expected instead of something truly remarkable
    The result was truly out of left field
    It was done on the back of godlike goalering which fleury couldn’t do before or since

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    Lowetide: I think the idea of a scramble to save Nuge or keep McDavid from asking out frames it incorrectly. In 2019-20, Bear,Yamamoto and Jones have arrived.

    So one pipeline is delivering.

    The McDavid-Draisaitl-Nurse pipeline is pumping at premium levels and should be for 5+ seasons.

    The Nuge-Klefbom-Larsson pipeline, a pipeline Edmonton hasn’t enjoyed (Vancouver has) for years and years, is now pushing from the other end.

    The Oilers are approaching something that resembles normal roster construction. That’s a big deal.

    The idea that Holland has to sacrifice the pick, a prospect and a cow in order for Nuge to re-sign here isn’t really the point.

    Building it properly is the goal. If you do that, those things take care of themselves. Nuge is an important part of the future, that older group (27-30) is the first one since (I think) Smyth-Hemsky.

    I think pushing for a one-off season of success is more dangerous than building brick by brick.

    The Oilers have been building brick by brick for more than a decade.

    Nuge strikes me as a sentient being.

    Just another brick in the wall doesn’t seem to me to be a motivating factor for a player who might want to win something in his hockey lifetime.

  90. Jaxon says:

    I would take a serious look at Haula for 3C. And I’d let him try to find chemistry with Neal again. Haula centered Perron and Neal in 2017-2018 (just 2 years ago) in Vegas and they were great together. With Perron as their setup guy. Perron had 16 goals and 50! assists. Haula had 29! goals and 26 assists, while Neal had 25! goals and 19 assists. That’s a 70 goal line against pretty tough competition! What did our 3rd line have this year? Maybe 30 if we’re generous? If Tyler Benson has the playmaker abilities that he has been touted for, I think he could help provide similar results. Haula and Neal were 51.88CF% in 709 minutes together at 5v5. They had 39 5v5 goals (Perron 8g / Haula 14g / Neal 17g at 5v5). That would be an amazing 3rd line! I don’t think Edmonton’s 3rd line got even 15 goals.

    Athanasiou / McDavid / Puljujarvi (Kassian)
    Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
    Benson / Haula / Neal

    I’d also still give Athanasiou another big chance with McDavid. I don’t think anyone should expect instant chemistry with McDavid. He’s too unique a player. They’re both unique players. Maybe that’s why they might not find any, but I think you have to give it a bigger chance. That could be lightning in a bottle. Finding quick chemistry doesn’t mean the ceiling will be higher. I think Athanasiou could score a ton with McDavid. He scored 30 with way lesser linemates just 2 years ago and he’s still quite young (turned 26 1 month ago).

  91. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Vegas was a warning shot across the bow of the nhl
    They had no pressure on them, Seattle will
    Vegas taught teams of what not to do
    Vegas had the benefit of coming in during a period of transition
    Teams are going to hang on to players that can play with speed

    Seattle walks into this with all the cards.

  92. Jaxon says:

    Neal on Haula during the Vegas playoff run in 2018:

    “I got to know him really well this year,” Neal said of Haula. “I became good friends with him and worked really well with him on the ice. It’s been a fun combination. He’s underrated for how fast he is, his shot and his skill level. He’s a good player.”

  93. Lowetide says:

    Harpers Hair: The Oilers have been building brick by brick for more than a decade.

    Nuge strikes me as a sentient being.

    Just another brick in the wall doesn’t seem to me to be a motivating factor for a player who might want to win something in his hockey lifetime.

    Ken Holland has been here for 16 months. Nuge isn’t 38.

  94. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Seattle is going to walk into the league with tens of millions in cap space and, given the Covid suppression of salaries, will be able to lay waste to any organization they choose to.

    So you’re envisioning offer sheets to Pettersson, Hughes and Rafferty?

  95. DieHard says:

    OriginalPouzar: or what if Benson gets a shot at 1LW and puts up 40 plus points or JP does something similar.

    Lots and lots of factors that we simply don’t know at this point but I would say that, with the current team, the player most likely to develop in to a “must-protect” over the next season is Jones.

    If a forward or two “pop” as well then they will likely need to go 7-3-1 and either move a d-man from the left side (Klef, Nurse, Jones) or make a deal with Seattle.

    Of course, if Jones does indeed progress, next off-season is the time to move on from one of those 3 lefties for real value in any event.

    Then you are trying to move a must protect D to another team that they then must protect. I can’t see that happening. But maybe.

  96. DieHard says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think the Odds of him re-signing are about 70%
    Contract is going to come in at 7×7-7.5 per
    Probably what he’d get on the open market
    Don’t think even the Wild would give him 8 per

    Would this be as 2nd line center. He has a lot of tools but is not good at draws.

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Jaxon:
    Neal on Haula during the Vegas playoff run in 2018:

    “I got to know him really well this year,” Neal said of Haula. “I became good friends with him and worked really well with him on the ice. It’s been a fun combination. He’s underrated for how fast he is, his shot and his skill level. He’s a good player.”

    How many players have had a career year in that Vegas inaugural season
    Haula, marchessault, karlsson, fleury, Miller, Engelland all had their career years and didn’t come close to replicating
    Durability has been an issue the last couple seasons
    Definitely better option than leftover red wings scrub

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Ken Holland has been here for 16 months. Nuge isn’t 38.

    I would think that, after being through the decade of darkness and multiple managers and coaches (so many coaches) that the player would prefer not to leave just as the organization seems to be stabilizing and the on-ice success starting to begin.

  99. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would think that, after being through the decade of darkness and multiple managers and coaches (so many coaches) that the player would prefer not to leave just as the organization seems to be stabilizing and the on-ice success starting to begin.

    Also known as the Tavares Warning

  100. jp says:

    Jaxon:
    I would take a serious look at Haula for 3C. And I’d let him try to find chemistry with Neal again. Haula centered Perron and Neal in 2017-2018 (just 2 years ago) in Vegas and they were great together. With Perron as their setup guy. Perron had 16 goals and 50! assists. Haula had 29! goals and 26 assists, while Neal had 25! goals and 19 assists. That’s a 70 goal line against pretty tough competition! What did our 3rd line have this year? Maybe 30 if we’re generous? If Tyler Benson has the playmaker abilities that he has been touted for, I think he could help provide similar results. Haula and Neal were 51.88CF% in 709 minutes together at 5v5. They had 39 5v5 goals (Perron 8g / Haula 14g / Neal 17g at 5v5). That would be an amazing 3rd line! I don’t think Edmonton’s 3rd line got even 15 goals.

    Athanasiou / McDavid / Puljujarvi (Kassian)
    Nugent-Hopkins / Draisaitl / Yamamoto
    Benson / Haula / Neal

    I’d also still give Athanasiou another big chance with McDavid. I don’t think anyone should expect instant chemistry with McDavid. He’s too unique a player. They’re both unique players. Maybe that’s why they might not find any, but I think you have to give it a bigger chance. That could be lightning in a bottle. Finding quick chemistry doesn’t mean the ceiling will be higher. I think Athanasiou could score a ton with McDavid. He scored 30 with way lesser linemates just 2 years ago and he’s still quite young (turned 26 1 month ago).

    I agree on both points.

    We shouldn’t get carried away with those Vegas results but I’d be very happy if Holland managed to add Haula. My guess is he’ll be priced out of the Oilers range though. That aside, he scores well, wins face-offs and his PK results have been very good (you do have to go back a ways, but that’s mostly on Vegas using him as 2C instead of bottom 6/PK). I’m pretty surprised Woodguy has such a gap between him and Bozak as 3C options.

    And Athanasiou. I’d like to see him get a proper chance to find a role with the Oilers as well. Hopefully with McDavid, but maybe with Draisaitl or even Haula/Bozak/other. There’s not that many players out there for $3M that are decent bets to score 30 goals.

  101. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Also known as the Tavares Warning

    Well, if the Oilers finish 7th in the division next year, like NYI did in JT’s last season there…..

  102. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Absolutely, it was but I don’t think we can relay on that line having a 77% goal shares over time.

    It might be reasonable to suggest they are a 60%-63% goal share line but 77% seems unsustainable.

    The team needs McDavid’s line to be 60% plus goal share over time in order to be a real competitive team.

    At least in my opinion.

    Yeah definitely agree the Drasiaitl line won’t run *that* hot going forward.

    Still, I’m not sure 2 lines over 60% is reasonable/necessary. McDavid’s only been 60%GF once in his career.
    And only 36 forwards in the entire league were 60+GF% this season (looks like TB had 2 lines at 60%. Colorado may have had 3 (!). No other team had 2 lines over 60%).
    Last year there were 34 total forwards over 60%, I don’t think any team had more than 4 of them.

    Anyway, all that to say two lines over 60% is way above what “real competitive” teams (or cup winning teams) usually have I think.

    McDavid was just 50%GF in 2020 but on the season:
    McDavid with Kassian (and no Draisaitl) was 58% GF.
    And McDavid with no Kassian and no Draisaitl was 54% GF.

    He also had a 1004 PDO in 2020, which is fine but lower than any of his last 4 full seasons (he’s overall 1017 in that span). So he was likely a bit unlucky in 2020.

    I’m not sure Holland needs to do anything aside from bring back the players he has under control to have two 55%GF lines. Figure out how to stop the bleeding from the 3rd and that looks like a real competitive team. (that’s my opinion, I know many disagree)

  103. jp says:

    jp:
    There’s not that many players out there for $3M that are decent bets to score 30 goals.

    On Athanasiou and his value at $3M. Covid Cap throws a wrench in things, we know prices will be somewhat lower this year. By how much we don’t know.

    But just perusing what $3M has bought teams on the FA market in recent years. It’s easy to forget.

    Forwards signed for $2,500,000 to $4,00,000 in July 2019:
    Colin Wilson 2.6M X 1 30yo Played 9 games (best season was 20-22-42 back in 14-15)
    Joonas Donskoi 3.9M X 4 27yo 65-16-17-33 (career high 14-23-37)
    Richard Panik 2.75M X 4 28yo 59-9-13-22 (once scored 22-22-44)
    Brandon Tanev 3.5M X 6 27yo 68-11-14-25 (career high 14-15-29)
    Valtteri Filppula 3M X 2 35yo 70-6-15-21 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
    Brett Connolly 3.5M X 4 27yo 69-19-14-33 (career high 22-24-46)
    Micheal Ferland 3.5M X 4 27yo only 14GP unfortunately (career high 21-20-41)
    Ryan Dzingel 3.375M X 2 27yo 69-8-21-29 (career high just before signing 26-30-56)

    In July 2018:
    Antoine Roussel 3M X 4 29yo 106-16-28-44 (career high 14-15-29)
    Sven Baertchi 3.366M X 3 27yo 35GP over 2 seasons (career high 18-17-35)
    Jay Beagle 3M X 4 32yo 112-5-16-21 (career high 13-17-30)
    Leo Komarov 3M X 4 31yo 130-10-30-40 (career high 19-17-36)
    Michael Grabner 3.35M X 3 30yo 87-17-10-27 (career high 27-13-40)
    Riley Nash 2.75M X 3 29yo 142-8-18-26 (career high 15-26-41)
    Valtteri Filppula 2.75M X 1 34yo 72-17-14-31 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
    David Perron 4M X 4 30yo 128-48-58-106 (career high 16-50-66) Great, great signing apparently.
    Matt Calvert 2.85 X 3 28y 132-23-28-51 (career high 11-15-26)

    For comparison Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38 over the past 3 seasons (that’s including the most recent shit show).

    AA looks to me like a great bet to cover $3M in a normal year. $3M doesn’t buy much on the open market. He’s probably (IMO) worth that in a Covid year too.

    And Kassian too for that matter, his deal doesn’t really look like an overpay relative to UFA going rates (which is not to say that means it’s a good deal).

  104. jp says:

    jp:
    For comparison Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38 over the past 3 seasons

    That’s better than every one of the $2.5M-$4M UFAs signed in the past 2 years except for David Perron.

  105. Fuge Udvar says:

    leadfarmer: Also known as the Tavares Warning

    Considering the Isles are in the conference finals and the Leafs got knocked out in the play ins. I hope Nuge takes the Tavares Warning!

  106. Fuge Udvar says:

    Harpers Hair,

    It seems like you are falling for the heuristic bias of substitution.

    When our brains are faced with a question we couldn’t possibly know the answer to (like say.. what decision somebody we have never met before is going to make) our brain (specifically the unconscious part) will substitute an easier question that it can answer (such as what decision would I make if I were that person).

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Yeah definitely agree the Drasiaitl line won’t run *that* hot going forward.

    Still, I’m not sure 2 lines over 60% is reasonable/necessary. McDavid’s only been 60%GF once in his career.
    And only 36 forwards in the entire league were 60+GF% this season (looks like TB had 2 lines at 60%. Colorado may have had 3 (!). No other team had 2 lines over 60%).
    Last year there were 34 total forwards over 60%, I don’t think any team had more than 4 of them.

    Anyway, all that to say two lines over 60% is way above what “real competitive” teams (or cup winning teams) usually have I think.

    McDavid was just 50%GF in 2020 but on the season:
    McDavid with Kassian (and no Draisaitl) was 58% GF.
    And McDavid with no Kassian and no Draisaitl was 54% GF.

    He also had a 1004 PDO in 2020, which is fine but lower than any of his last 4 full seasons (he’s overall 1017 in that span). So he was likely a bit unlucky in 2020.

    I’m not sure Holland needs to do anything aside from bring back the players he has under control to have two 55%GF lines. Figure out how to stop the bleeding from the 3rd and that looks like a real competitive team. (that’s my opinion, I know many disagree)

    Maybe two 60% plus lines insn’t reasonable but you do mention that 36 forwards were at 60% plus – shouldn’t McDavid be one of those players? Oubviously he can’t do it “on his own”, and the other players certainly don’t, but being the best offensive player in the game and the highest cap hit in the game, I do expect the Oilers to dominate the goal scoring ratio when Connor is one the ice.

    No, two 60% plus lines is probably not reasonable but this team is top heavy and are still a year away from being able to acquire enough skilled offensive depth to create balance through the lineup to rely on even a 50% 3rd line let alone 4th line.

    The top end has to carry extra weight.

  108. Bobcaygeon says:

    DieHard: And, what if AA pops and scores 24-30 goals and looks good and comfortable on Connors wing?

    2015-16 Detroit Red Wings NHL 37 9 5 14 5 1 5 1 0 1 0
    2016-17 Detroit Red Wings NHL 64 18 11 29 28 -7 — — — — —
    2017-18 Detroit Red Wings NHL 71 16 17 33 16 -15 — — — — —
    2018-19 Detroit Red Wings NHL 76 30 24 54 38 -9 — — — — —
    2019-20 Detroit Red Wings NHL 46 10 14 24 26 -45
    2019-20 Edmonton Oilers NHL 9 1 1 2 4

    Which year looks like the outlier?

    AA isn’t scoring 25-30 goals……Even on McDavids wing.
    It’s like Chiarelli thinking Strome was going to score 30 goals playing with McDavid even though Strome was a career 30 point player.

    Can players have good years, sure, but the bet is they will revert to the mean.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: On Athanasiou and his value at $3M. Covid Cap throws a wrench in things, we know prices will be somewhat lower this year. By how much we don’t know.

    But just perusing what $3M has bought teams on the FA market in recent years. It’s easy to forget.

    Forwards signed for $2,500,000 to $4,00,000 in July 2019:
    Colin Wilson 2.6M X 1 30yo Played 9 games (best season was 20-22-42 back in 14-15)
    Joonas Donskoi 3.9M X 4 27yo 65-16-17-33 (career high 14-23-37)
    Richard Panik 2.75M X 4 28yo 59-9-13-22 (once scored 22-22-44)
    Brandon Tanev 3.5M X 6 27yo 68-11-14-25 (career high 14-15-29)
    Valtteri Filppula 3M X 2 35yo 70-6-15-21 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
    Brett Connolly 3.5M X 4 27yo 69-19-14-33 (career high 22-24-46)
    Micheal Ferland 3.5M X 4 27yo only 14GP unfortunately (career high 21-20-41)
    Ryan Dzingel 3.375M X 2 27yo 69-8-21-29 (career high just before signing 26-30-56)

    In July 2018:
    Antoine Roussel 3M X 4 29yo 106-16-28-44 (career high 14-15-29)
    Sven Baertchi 3.366M X 3 27yo 35GP over 2 seasons (career high 18-17-35)
    Jay Beagle 3M X 4 32yo 112-5-16-21 (career high 13-17-30)
    Leo Komarov 3M X 4 31yo 130-10-30-40 (career high 19-17-36)
    Michael Grabner 3.35M X 3 30yo 87-17-10-27 (career high 27-13-40)
    Riley Nash 2.75M X 3 29yo 142-8-18-26 (career high 15-26-41)
    Valtteri Filppula 2.75M X 1 34yo 72-17-14-31 (career high 23-42-66 in 2011-12)
    David Perron 4M X 4 30yo 128-48-58-106 (career high 16-50-66) Great, great signing apparently.
    Matt Calvert 2.85 X 3 28y 132-23-28-51 (career high 11-15-26)

    For comparison Athanasiou has averaged 67-19-19-38 over the past 3 seasons (that’s including the most recent shit show).

    AA looks to me like a great bet to cover $3M in a normal year. $3M doesn’t buy much on the open market. He’s probably (IMO) worth that in a Covid year too.

    And Kassian too for that matter, his deal doesn’t really look like an overpay relative to UFA going rates (which is not to say that means it’s a good deal).

    Good info – thank you.

    I’ve been clear on my position that I’m not looking to flip AA for a 2nd round pick unless there is a real use for that $3M.

    I do have some time for Benson to replace AA on the roster if the money can actually be used on the 3C, top 6W or 1B – responsibly used.

    Taking that away, I’m willing to go 1 X $3M as long as AA will sign prior to QO time and arb risk. Sure, I’d like it to come in less but I think he’s a reasonable bet at $3M.

    Last year was his only year below 1.8 P/60 in the last 4 (and he’s been over 2 P/60) – he’s also shown the ability to produce at 5 on 5 with non-elite linemates.

    I don’t know where he fits on this team – we all saw him not really fit anywhere. We also saw Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse look like replacement level d-men so I take what we saw with some salt grains.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bobcaygeon: 2015-16Detroit Red WingsNHL3795145151010
    2016-17Detroit Red WingsNHL6418112928-7—————
    2017-18Detroit Red WingsNHL7116173316-15—————
    2018-19Detroit Red WingsNHL7630245438-9—————
    2019-20Detroit Red WingsNHL4610142426-45
    2019-20Edmonton OilersNHL91124

    Which year looks like the outlier?

    AA isn’t scoring 25-30 goals……Even on McDavids wing.
    It’s likeChiarelli thinking Strome was going to score 30 goals playing with McDavid even though Strome was a career 30 point player.

    Can players have good years, sure,but the bet is they will revert to the mean.

    P/60, this past season was the outlier – 4 straight seasons at 1.8 P/60 or above (one above 2.0 P/60) – generally middle six linemates and not a ton of PP time.

    The risk here is $3M for one year – we aren’t talking a big money long term deal.

    We actually don’t know what Strome would have done on McDavid’s wing, it was never tried. Of course, we know that Strome put up 60 points in a shortened season with Panarin……

  111. Bobcaygeon says:

    OriginalPouzar: P/60, this past season was the outlier – 4 straight seasons at 1.8 P/60 or above (one above 2.0 P/60) – generally middle six linemates and not a ton of PP time.

    The risk here is $3M for one year – we aren’t talking a big money long term deal.

    We actually don’t know what Strome would have done on McDavid’s wing, it was never tried. Of course, we know that Strome put up 60 points in a shortened season with Panarin……

    Strome was on McDavid’s wing for a time & believing that he would become a 50 point player was one of many Chiarelli faults.
    AA P/60 may say his potential but His points tell me he’s a 30-35 point player.
    Convince me i’m wrong.

  112. Bobcaygeon says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    3 million to the Edmonton Oilers is a massive amount of dollars believe it or not.

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    Great to see Broberg rolled out on the top pair game after game – its just exhibition for now but I anticipate that will continue when the regular season starts in, I believe, 10 days or so.

    https://twitter.com/skelleftea_aik/status/1303697859217416192

    Lokomotiv playing today as well. Hopefully Konovalov gets the start – he was great in game 1 in a 7-2 win but the back-up did get a shutout in a 2-0 game 2 win.

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bobcaygeon: Strome was on McDavid’s wing for a time & believing that he would become a 50 point player was one of many Chiarelli faults.
    AA P/60 may say his potential but His points tell me he’s a 30-35 point player.
    Convince me i’m wrong.

    58 minutes together over two seasons……

    A stretch where they did have materially positive possession and outscored the opponent 3:1.

    I’m not sure how believing he could be a 50 point player with McDavid was a fault when he has proven to be a 60 point plus player with Panarin.

    He was never given the chance on McDavid’s wing and in the tiny chance he was given, the duo produced.

  115. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bobcaygeon:
    OriginalPouzar,

    3 million to the Edmonton Oilers is a massive amount of dollars believe it or not.

    As I said, unless there is a real use for that $3M, a responsible use for it, I am fine with it going to AA – his history shows he can be value for that cap hit and, as has been shown, for one player, $3M doesn’t get you much – in fact, it gets you less than what AA is likely to produce.

  116. Bobcaygeon says:

    OriginalPouzar: 58 minutes together over two seasons……

    A stretch where they did have materially positive possession and outscored the opponent 3:1.

    I’m not sure how believing he could be a 50 point player with McDavid was a fault when he has proven to be a 60 point plus player with Panarin.

    He was never given the chance on McDavid’s wing and in the tiny chance he was given, the duo produced.

    Strome is not a proven 60 point player, like I said earlier, a player can have a positive year but the 30-35 points he gotten the last 4-5 years tell me he’s somewhere around 35 points.
    We can also add for the Oilers sake, Chaission or Marroon unless you believe these players to be 25-30 goal scorers in there own right?
    I think it’s a horrible way to spend 3m dollars on AA who will most likely get you 30-35 points.
    Just one guys opinion

  117. SwedishPoster says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Great to see Broberg rolled out on the top pair game after game – its just exhibition for now but I anticipate that will continue when the regular season starts in, I believe, 10 days or so.

    https://twitter.com/skelleftea_aik/status/1303697859217416192

    Lokomotiv playing today as well.Hopefully Konovalov gets the start – he was great in game 1 in a 7-2 win but the back-up did get a shutout in a 2-0 game 2 win.

    I wouldn’t count on it being the first pairing, haven’t seen the TOI for the first few games but if I were to guess the Lundberg- Burström pairing is likely the top pair, two vets both with NT games to their resumé. He’s safely in the top 4 though and SHL teams usually roll their top two pairs pretty evenly. Broberg’s D partner, former Toronto/Nashville tweener Petter Granberg is a bit of an anchor, though the coaches seem to like him. Rickiboxer with iffy skating and puckhandling.

  118. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Should facilitate the development of his puck moving skills given Granberg’s lack of puck skills.

  119. jp says:

    Bobcaygeon:

    I think it’s a horrible way to spend 3m dollars on AA who will most likely get you 30-35 points.
    Just one guys opinion

    Which 30 point player would you like to spend $3M on instead?

  120. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    jp: Which 30 point player would you like to spend $3M on instead?

    Me

  121. jp says:

    GordieHoweHatTrick: Me

    They say players need to bet on themselves…

    I hope Holland sticks with AA though lol

  122. Bobcaygeon says:

    jp: Which 30 point player would you like to spend $3M on instead?

    Well, I don’t know about you but I’d spend that 3 million on a number of things, a top 6 forward, a third line center, Bears contract, adding to the D-corps.
    That 3 million added to the pot is way more valuable to the Oilers than AA is.

  123. jp says:

    Bobcaygeon: Well, I don’t know about you but I’d spend that 3 million on a number of things, a top 6 forward, a third line center, Bears contract, adding to the D-corps.
    That 3 million added to the pot is way more valuable to the Oilers than AA is.

    Did you see the list of recent UFAs I posed last night? (guys who signed in the ball park of $3M in the last couple of yrs).

    I think only 1 of the 16 players had even a 35 point season after signing (Perron, who signed for 4 yrs X $4M at age 30). AA averaged 19G, 38P over the last 3 years so I think he’s a very good bet to top 35P next season, whoever he plays for.

    Maybe there’s a drastic reduction in salaries this off season, but I think you’d be disappointed with the “top 6 forward” you’d get with AAs money.

    If you want to sign a 3C or extend Bear instead, I can understand that preference. But I don’t agree $3M added to the pot is more valuable than AA, never mind way more valuable.

    Agree to disagree I guess.

  124. Bobcaygeon says:

    jp: Did you see the list of recent UFAs I posed last night? (guys who signed in the ball park of $3M in the last couple of yrs).

    I think only 1 of the 16 players had even a 35 point season after signing (Perron, who signed for 4 yrs X $4M at age 30). AA averaged 19G, 38P over the last 3 years so I think he’s a very good bet to top 35P next season, whoever he plays for.

    Maybe there’s a drastic reduction in salaries this off season, but I think you’d be disappointed with the “top 6 forward” you’d get with AAs money.

    If you want to sign a 3C or extend Bear instead, I can understand that preference. But I don’t agree $3M added to the pot is more valuable than AA, never mind way more valuable.

    Agree to disagree I guess.

    where does it say you can only obtain a top 6 player from UFA? I’ll make a wager that AA doesn’t hit 40, I’ll take that bet.
    Where did I say you can only look at top six players?
    Oilers have huge holes to fill and the UFA market is one of many ways to fill holes.
    AA is a bad bet to fill a top six role.
    Where did I say you have to fill that role only with the 3 million? I didn’t, but you can use AA 3 million to add to a contract that will be a far better bet.

  125. jp says:

    Bobcaygeon:
    AA is a bad bet to fill a top six role.

    but you can use AA 3 million to add to a contract that will be a far better bet.

    Seems we disagree on these 2 points.

    Shall we move on?

  126. Bobcaygeon says:

    jp: Seems we disagree on these 2 points.

    Shall we move on?

    good debate. I get what you’re saying.

  127. jp says:

    Bobcaygeon,

    Same. I’m definitely curious to see what Holland ends up doing with the team (and how AA does going forward)

  128. Lewis Grant says:

    leadfarmer: Trading JP to recover some picks because of a bad trade made by the GM is a very Oilers thing to do.

    Yes, yes it is.

    Already at the trade deadline, I was a little concerned about the AA trade, given his background.

    But are we really going to give up on AA after a dozen games? We gave up on Strome pretty quickly too, and he scored 61 points in 73 games this year. (We also gave up on Draisaitl’s Hart chances after his -20 December, but he seemed to turn out OK in 2020.)

    How many games did AA get with McDavid? He and Ennis were absolutely flying with McDavid in that first game. And his 30-goal year wasn’t an outlier when it came to SH%.

    I say AA’s worth another chance. I’ll take him (even at ~$3M) over Jake Neighbours.

  129. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like Virtanan might not be in Benning’s plans for next year.

    I expect they will try and move him as oppossed to not qualifying him but for apx $1.5M he may be worth a flyer – not sure if he can play the left wing or solely a right wing.

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    Sounds like the 50/50 is coming back for the SCF……

  131. OriginalPouzar says:

    Listening to Bill Daly on the 2-Man Advantage with LeBrun.

    Some high level points:

    – the 7 teams they didn’t come back very much want some extra training camp time.

    – they are working on protocols for what off-season training at facilities will look like.

    – don’t know what next season will look like. Will take their time and asses all the info including looking at the other leagues including NFL and European leagues.

    – still very much want an 82 game season but don’t know if that is do-able. If they start in January, they could still get 82 games in. Playing partially in the summer is an option but they do want to get back on a normal cycle ASAP, once world events permit.

    – bubble season is not a model for a full regular season – not by any stretch.

    – constructing next season is totally different than what they structured this summer

    – acknowledged the likelihood of having temp tests or some sort of testing to get in the building.

    – maybe some fans in some buildings and not others? The NFL is dealing with different market conditions and local requirements and they don’t even have to deal with a border – it is going to be complicated.

    – Haven’t spoke to government or health authorities with respect to crossing borders for next season. The focus has been on the current RTP and it may even be premature to have those discussion re: border travel for next year.

    – Dec 1 will depend on “what they decide to do” – it’s probably “less likely” but that could change.

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