V-2 Schneider

by Lowetide
Photo by Rob Ferguson

Anger and outrage broke out across central and Northern Alberta Sunday night, as twitter star Fussy Britches sent out an all caps sentence word: “Klefbom” and lit up the social media sky. All the clocks stopped, people ran outside to see who was bound for happiness and who was bound for glory. If not 97, 29, 93 and Klefbom, then who is bound to live with less, and who will tell their story?

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

THE LIST

What does your off limits list look like for the Oilers? My no trade list is Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg. That’s nine. I think Raphael Lavoie, Dmitri Samorukov and Ilya Konovalov could join them soon. What’s your list?

AVAILABLE LIST

So, is there enough on he available list to get anything done? Adam Larsson, Mikko Koskinen, Andreas Athanasiou, Alex Chiasson, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Kris Russell, Matt Benning, William Lagesson, Ryan McLeod.

Is there a lot of value there? I think Larsson has good value, he should be able to deliver one of the three needed pieces (Goalie, two-way winger and No. 3 center) mostly by himself. After that, it gets a little hazy.

I would not trade Oscar Klefbom, and I would not trade Darnell Nurse. Why? Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Philip Broberg and Dmitri Samorukov are all matriculating but none are provably able to replace one of Nurse or Klefbom.

I would trade Adam Larsson. Why? He is one year from free agency. Edmonton would need to replace him, as an Ethan Bear-Matt Benning-Evan Bouchard RH depth chart is thin on experience and lacks depth. Dealing Larsson for a goalie and then signing Tyson Barrie, Sami Vatanen or Chris Tanev is the play here. I’d pursue Dylan DeMelo with extreme prejudice.

Holland is in a tough spot. He could be on the verge of a major opportunity with very little ability to get into a trade conversation. Putting it in 1970’s form, it’s like seeing Jan Smithers at a party and realizing you’re Ralph Malph.

HOW BAD IS IT?

I believe the Oilers, as they sit idling in the driveway, are a better team than most fans believe. Those damnable Bettman bubble games cast a pall on real progress, led by a coach who did a damned good job until the Chicago Blackhawks series.

Ken Holland is going to add an upgrade in net, and add a No. 3 center. If he trades Larsson that needs a replacement. Perhaps the left wing solution is Tyler Ennis or another low key addition. Perhaps he walks Andreas Athanasiou and Matt Benning.

If Holland makes a good choice in goal, makes a smaller trade for a legit No. 3 center and someone who can cash on No. 97’s wing, then that’s the summer. Edmonton finished No. 2 in the Pacific Division, they were competitive with Calgary and Vancouver this past season. Trading Klefbom, unless the return is enormous, would likely be another example of the Oilers giving up the best player in the deal. If Colton Parayko is coming back, sign that deal. Failing that, keep your powder dry.

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PerryK

LT said:

I would trade Adam Larsson. Why? He is one year from free agency. Edmonton would need to replace him, as an Ethan Bear-Matt Benning-Evan Bouchard RH depth chart is thin on experience and lacks depth. Dealing Larsson for a goalie and then signing Tyson Barrie, Sami Vatanen or Chris Tanev is the play here. I’d pursue Dylan DeMelo with extreme prejudice.

I’m not enamoured with Barrie or Vatanen and I don’t think DeMelo can be pried loose. I really like Tanev, but he may be too expensive. A guy that has been impressing me through the playoffs is Zach Bogosian. Expiring contract 1.3 mill. He’s 30, 6’3”, 226 lbs.. He is RHD! He looks like he’s learned how to play shutdown defence very well. He seems a lot more aware of his surroundings from when he was in Buffalo.

Bobcaygeon

Lowetide: The Oilers are as they have been for a decade. A team of brilliant young talent surrounded by very little. Until that changes, comparing Edmonton to any other team is not easy.

Well that’s it isn’t it? It’s whats kept me coming here since 2009. To talk about all this young talent.
Watching it come and go…..
The team should be a young talented team bursting at the seams with an overabundance of talent at all spots……
I’m waiting for the Oilers to stop giving that talent away for pennies on the dollar.

Munny

jp,

Well done. That’s pretty convincing.

jp

Lowetide: Nurse plays more with McDavid and scoring more points than other blue five on five and I’m not certain there’s any conclusions to make in terms of his playing with 97 helping results.

Nurse with McDavid 2-16-18 in 600:31 (1.80 five on five points per 60)
Nurse without McDavid 2-6-8 in 770:42 (0.62 five on five points per 60)

Klefbom with McDavid 1-6-7 in 291:12 (1.44 five on five points per 60)
Klebom without McDavid 2-6-8 in 819:04 (0.59 five on five points per 60)

A larger sample shows a bigger gap between Nurse and Klefbom though. Over the last 3 seasons:

Nurse with McDavid 1706 min 1.65P/60
Nurse without McDavid 2771 min 0.65P/60

Klefbom with McDavid 1151 min 1.20P/60
Klefbom without McDavid 2210 min 0.41P/60

jp

leadfarmer: Well game 1 of conference finals had 1 out of 4 “starting goalies” playing Greiss MAF and Khudobin
We have been seeing the end of the #1 70 game starter goalie vanish. Now is this the beginning of having 2 goalies ready to play?

Yeah it seems like a weird playoff year for goalies, and clearly the 70 game starter is already dead.

6 goalies did it in 09-10
3 in 10-11
3 in 11-12
No more until 14-15 when 3 guys did it
Then just one goalie in the last 5 seasons. Cam Talbot in 16-17.

Hedging your bets makes a lot of sense.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar:
Mikael Granlund’s agent stating they won’t re-sign prior to free agency and will test the market.

Has played center in the past but really a winger these days.

He was a target of mine at the deadline and I think he could fit well in the top 6.

With that said, I anticipate he was $5M plus for term so that’s really a non-starter.

I’d still like to see Holland kick the tires on Bonino but, again, cap. Nashville may be interested it the $1.5M salary outlay left on his $4M AAV contract…..

Granlund might be one of those free agents who falls through the cracks. With the flat cap, I find it unlikely there will be a gaggle of teams lining up to sign him long term.

JimmyV1965

Brantford Boy: I stopped reading after that…

Every single player is tradeable. The reason you don’t trade McDavid or Drai is it’s almost impossible to get good value because the players are so good. But if Sakic loses his mind and is willing to trade McKinnon and Makar for McDavid, you have to do it.

JimmyV1965

I don’t get the chatter about trading Nurse for Ehlers. Sure it improves our offence, but it weakens our defence. So any gains will be marginal. We need to add a player without giving up a regular. Although I’ve advocated trading Larsson, I only say that because he’s a pending free agent with back issues. And he really played maybe quality 20 games last year so we’re really not losing a regular.

The way to improve this team is by trading picks or signing free agents. I’ve always been strongly opposed to signing expensive free agents because it almost always bites you in the ass. But this year might actually be different. With the flat cap, there may be good players willing to sign for one or two years at reduced rates. Any free agent looking to maximize his next contract would be very intrigued at the prospect of playing with McDavid or Drai.

Trading Nurse for a forward doesn’t really move the needle unless you get some massive overpay.

jp

GordieHoweHatTrick: I believe the coach’s decision to play “1B” to start the series was a bit of a confidence rattling mind-#@%# for MK. Granted, he is a professional and should get over these things quickly, I think that decision plants a small seed of doubt. But who knows…

He wasn’t “Bad” in the play-ins, but he didn’t steal a game either…

MK is an average-above average goalie in the NHL and as of now is paid in the range of that value.

I wouldn’t go too far trying to make excuses for player performance, though agreed Koskinen would have had to be disappointed not to get the game 1 start.

And yeah, not notably bad in the play-in but he certainly didn’t go above and beyond. The whole team had issues though, so he wasn’t alone.

Otherwise, agreed that he’s paid fairly for what he appears to be (even if he hadn’t earned that deal on the day of signing).

jp

Munny,

🙂

jp

knighttown: I don’t get this logic at all. Of course trading a Top 4 defence for a forward weakens the defence. But just as obviously, acquiring a Top line forward will strengthen your forwards so why do you say “hope”?
Is it because you aren’t familiar with Ehlers? As a thought experiment let’s call Ehlers, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. So you’re moving Nurse for Nuge.
Yes you’ve downgraded the defence; Nurse out and Jones in.
Buy you know have RNH playing on both the first and second lines.
Are you still so sure?

That’s a quality thought experiment.

Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual

pts2pndr: The kicker is eckblad is getting paid 3.5 million more than Klefbom

Which he’s worth by my estimation.

Harpers Hair

Lowetide: I think Markstrom is a little more than an average goaltender.

He certainly was this season.

In many ways, the Oilers and Canucks are polar opposites.

The Oilers have been drafting so many defensemen while the Canucks actually had three undrafted defensemen in their playoff lineup.

At the same time, the Oilers can’t find enough quality forwards to fill the top six while the Canucks arguably have even got when Leivo is healthy.

Going forward though, the Canucks have the advantage of having a true #1 modern defenseman in Quinn Hughes who has already arrived while the Oilers are hoping one of their D prospects might reach that level someday.

Both teams are hamstrung by dead cap money for a year but then things open up for both teams.

I’m sure you’re aware that Pronman is doing a deep dive into the young prospects each team has and ranked the Oilers bottom five and the Canucks (still to be revealed) are likely to be top five.

Given the Canucks have better goaltending, a true #1D and more centres than they know what to do with, I would think Holland has his work cut out for him to keep pace.

Should be an interesting match to watch.

pts2pndr

leadfarmer: I find skating out with the puck for a d man to be a negative unless there are no outlet options
You need to play the game with speed and that means don’t let the opposition get set up defensively
So that bumps up his zone exits
Bear is our best defenseman at moving the puck up “effectively”
Nurse is good at getting the puck set up in the offensive zone but seems kind of lost once he gets it there

The exception is when the D man beats his check it normally sets up an odd man rush the other way.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: I find skating out with the puck for a d man to be a negative unless there are no outlet options
You need to play the game with speed and that means don’t let the opposition get set up defensively
So that bumps up his zone exits
Bear is our best defenseman at moving the puck up “effectively”
Nurse is good at getting the puck set up in the offensive zone but seems kind of lost once he gets it there

Yes, Bear is the best at effectively transitioning the puck as I agree with you that passing the puck out is more efficient than skating it (generally) and helps create fast break offence – I referenced as much in my post.

With that said, his ability to “get it out and get it in” does have value.

Where the stats don’t meet my personal eye test (or yours) is indicated in the end of your post. It seems, from the data, a higher percentage of his zone entires lead to scoring chances than others on the team – materially.

OriginalPouzar

DieHard:
leadfarmer,

Team budget for Goalers is what around 10%, so 8M ish. That’s two 4-5M per. Are we looking for a 4M Goalie? Who could that be.

Team budget for goalies for all teams is not equal.

The Oilers have material dead money (retained, buyouts, bonuse overage) plus a $4M 7D plus a $5.75M 3/4LW plus PP guy, etc.

That reduces the amount that can be spent in other areas.

In order to acquire a $4M goalie, be it signing a Khodobin or trading for a Murray, they need to dispose.

Right now the budget for the goalie is Aaron Dell (or over-paying in assets to entice Pit to let go of DeSmith) and, personally, even if $4M could be found, I’d prefer that was spent elsewhere on a short term forward acquisition.

leadfarmer

OriginalPouzar: Really?

My eyeballs show me that he is indeed elite at skating the puck out of the defensive zone (with control) and entering the offensive zone (with control). Combine that with that fact that he is indeed good at getting the puck back in the defensive zone (that’s not the same skill as defensive zone awareness, recognizing the danger areas and not going puck chasing).

He’s not adept at passing for length but he is adept at clean exits and entries.

The one stat that surprised me is the percentage of his zone entires that led to scoring changes – better than my eyes tell me.

Of course, transitioning the puck via pass is more efficient and leads to fast break chances more than transitioning by skate but, still, his out and in skills are very good.

I find skating out with the puck for a d man to be a negative unless there are no outlet options
You need to play the game with speed and that means don’t let the opposition get set up defensively
So that bumps up his zone exits
Bear is our best defenseman at moving the puck up “effectively”
Nurse is good at getting the puck set up in the offensive zone but seems kind of lost once he gets it there

OriginalPouzar

I think the set-up of this year’s post-season has led to team’s using multiple tenders more than a normal playoff.

Last year, you know how many goalies started playoff games? 17. In the entire playoffs, only one team used a 2nd goalie.

As of late last week you know how many goalies had started games in the post-season? 38. 24 teams and 38 different goalies.

Yes, there had been some injuries (Colorado, Vancouver, etc.) but I’m not sure that this post-season can be taken as the new norm. That would be a very marked shift in one year.

I agree that the “2-goalie system is clearly becoming more used and important but I think the playoffs will continue to be a one-goalie show for the most part – when the tournament gets back to “normal”.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: He was not happy with his role as Suzuki and Kotkaniemi got the bump and was speaking out about it

I think he played most of the regular season with Tatar and Gallagher but has gone on record after the season that he wants to be put in more offensive situations than a 3C – must be speaking to playoff useage?

He would not be cheap asset wise to acquire – he is a selke-vote center who can play in the top 6.

He’s got one year left and I imagine is going to want term and to hit with his UFA contract.

I’d love the player but his next contract worries me – its that UFA regressing 30s contract.

I was all over acquiring him at the deadline – willing to pay a bit more but not full price as my premise was a one-year rental. I’m generally against signing UFA-regressing 30s contracts – Nuge excepted.

OriginalPouzar

pts2pndr: I just see moving Nurse this year as premature. The team has finally gotten to the point where the D is a strength and deep enough where one injury isn’t catastrophic. Giving Bouchard a shot at winning a spot and another development year for Broberg and Samorukov assure us of continuing with a strong D moving forward.This also allows us to move Russel at the trade deadline freeing up cap. By this time next year we will have more cap room and be able to move one of Klefbom and or Nurse which should allow for a major add at forward. For me timing is the key.

I agree with most of this. I believe the current roster dynamic and development stage of our defensive group has a material move a year away (and dependant on some continued progression of, mainly, Jones).

I can’t agree or Russell and the time of his trade though. I think all efforts have to be made to move on from that contract now so that one external improvement is made – be it a winger, a 3C or a more substantial 1B.

I don’t imagine any scenario where the Oilers are heading towards the playoffs and Russell is sold off – even if he is a depth piece. Its a “Kris Russell on an expiring contract” that Holland would likely be adding at that time (as we saw with a Mike Green acquisition even with plenty of defensive depth heading in to the stretch).

jp

Harpers Hair:
You won’t win a cup with an average goaltender and a gaggle of B grade defensemen no matter how many you have.

And I thought Holland needed to move #14 for McDavid winger.

Now I wonder if a 1D or 1G is even more needed.

It sounds pretty hopeless for this franchise actually.

OriginalPouzar

leadfarmer: Or there is a problem with the data
I have trouble believing any data that has Nurse as a top puck moving D
Doesn’t come close to the eyeball

Really?

My eyeballs show me that he is indeed elite at skating the puck out of the defensive zone (with control) and entering the offensive zone (with control). Combine that with that fact that he is indeed good at getting the puck back in the defensive zone (that’s not the same skill as defensive zone awareness, recognizing the danger areas and not going puck chasing).

He’s not adept at passing for length but he is adept at clean exits and entries.

The one stat that surprised me is the percentage of his zone entires that led to scoring changes – better than my eyes tell me.

Of course, transitioning the puck via pass is more efficient and leads to fast break chances more than transitioning by skate but, still, his out and in skills are very good.

jp

OriginalPouzar:
Rishaug is reporting that the Oilers are close to signing Adam Cracknell – yes, Adam Cracknell.

Rishaug speculates that it would be a depth signing for the minors and potential call-up option.

Hahaha (apologies to the Cracknell family)

(and he does actually look like a decent AHL/KHL pro as a depth Bakersfield option)

Gerta Rauss

OriginalPouzar:
Rishaug is reporting that the Oilers are close to signing Adam Cracknell – yes, Adam Cracknell.

Rishaug speculates that it would be a depth signing for the minors and potential call-up option.

All our problems are solved LoL

buck yoakam

Victoria Oil,

I really think so…I really think so…he says..casually hoisting his rather large pants

DieHard

leadfarmer,

Team budget for Goalers is what around 10%, so 8M ish. That’s two 4-5M per. Are we looking for a 4M Goalie? Who could that be.

OriginalPouzar

Rishaug is reporting that the Oilers are close to signing Adam Cracknell – yes, Adam Cracknell.

Rishaug speculates that it would be a depth signing for the minors and potential call-up option.

OriginalPouzar

Mikael Granlund’s agent stating they won’t re-sign prior to free agency and will test the market.

Has played center in the past but really a winger these days.

He was a target of mine at the deadline and I think he could fit well in the top 6.

With that said, I anticipate he was $5M plus for term so that’s really a non-starter.

I’d still like to see Holland kick the tires on Bonino but, again, cap. Nashville may be interested it the $1.5M salary outlay left on his $4M AAV contract…..

leadfarmer

I admire what the Isles have done
But they’re no match to the guys that will win the cup

Harpers Hair

You won’t win a cup with an average goaltender and a gaggle of B grade defensemen no matter how many you have.

Pescador

jp: Quinn Hughes?

Cale Makar?

pts2pndr

jp: Quinn Hughes?

Rohan laughtree

OriginalPouzar

Ryan: Habs fan?

That deal is really unbalanced for the Oilers.

That’s way too much to pay for Domi and Denault.

It’s even worse when you see that Denault is 27 with one year left on his contract.

Domi is an RFA with arb rights and he wants to get paid.

I think Domi’s next contract will be difficult.

I love Danault – he’d be great on this team (i think) and he was a player I was willing to pay more for in assets at the deadline (given the year extra). I agree with you though, one year left to UFA provides risk unless an extension can be talked about and there is also the concern of paying players UFA money for their 30s.

I mainly was responding to agree with you on Domi and his contract – I think this player is going to dig in for apx $6M and term – I wouldn’t get serious about acquiring him without advanced contract negotiations (after permission).

Both those players have recent spoke out in the media about issues with how they’ve been used (Domi wants to be a center and Danault wants to play higher than 3C) – that provides me concern on both those players.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

leadfarmer,

Having a 1A/1B arrangement only makes sense on a number of levels.

— internal competition
— injury/slump cover
— reduce fatigue

Having a strong call up option bubbling under is the ideal alignment so long as the three headed monster is avoided.

Victoria Oil

who: Try to speak in complete sentences.
It would make yourpoint of view much easier to understand for the rest of us.

He’s writing in Tikkanese.

leadfarmer

jp: Cup winning goalies:

2019 Binnington (25 year old rookie)
2018 Holtby
2017 Murray
2016 Murray (rookie)
2015 Crawford
2014 Quick
2013 Crawford
2012 Quick
2011 Thomas
2010 Niemi
2009 Fleury
2008 Osgood (and Holland won earlier cups with Osgood and Vernon in net)
2007 Giguere
2006 Ward

That’s not exactly a list of all Vezina winners. Lots of them were good but not great.

I don’t know if Koskinen is cup winning quality either (as WHO said) but to me he doesn’t stick out particularly from that list of tenders. Maybe he’ll always choke in the playoffs but he had a better regular season save% this year than half the cup winners (and on a worse team then pretty much all of them).

Well game 1 of conference finals had 1 out of 4 “starting goalies” playing Greiss MAF and Khudobin
We have been seeing the end of the #1 70 game starter goalie vanish. Now is this the beginning of having 2 goalies ready to play?

leadfarmer

Ryan: Where did you hear that he’s on the outs?

He plays on their top line.

What would be the price for one year of Danault?

How much does he cost to sign after his one-year of remaining contract runs out?

He was not happy with his role as Suzuki and Kotkaniemi got the bump and was speaking out about it

nathen99

nathen99,

Touche

nathen99

We need someone for conner !!! 3 line center if you can get both for 1st we don’t need 2021 and nurse and a Finnish flake and it works $ and what Montreal needs nurse is great player just gets us what’s needed! Shit islanders in 80 give us there dynasty for mess worked our for Sather thank my gords

who

nathen99:
Trade from strength klefbom value nurse soon less value when nurse gone and parade on Stanley ttyl

Try to speak in complete sentences.
It would make your point of view much easier to understand for the rest of us.

nathen99

Ryan,

A first pool party and left d prospect I am thinking Montreal needs all the above admit though I don’t really know

nathen99

Trade from strength klefbom value nurse soon less value when nurse gone and parade on Stanley ttyl

nathen99

s wher

nathen99

nathen99,

Fun times if you can’t remember times when percentage equals success u never played the game I’m sure Meester and smiyrh numbers sucked yet 11 and soon 94 in the rafters
nathen99,

Gonoilrs

Ryan

leadfarmer: How about Danault? Not as expensive as Bozak and on the outs in Mtl.

Where did you hear that he’s on the outs?

He plays on their top line.

What would be the price for one year of Danault?

How much does he cost to sign after his one-year of remaining contract runs out?

nathen99

nathen99,

Fun times if you can’t remember times when percentage equals success u never played the game I’m sure Meester and smiyrh numbers sucked yet 11 and soon 94 in the rafters

GordieHoweHatTrick

GordieHoweHatTrick: I am not promoting the idea of an imminent trade. I am only helping rationalize why it is going to happen at some point.

*why “a trade of a Nurse or Klefbom” is going to happen at some point (one of the top 2 LDs)*